This is the press release received from CoreLogic for their December 2024 report.
Property values fell -0.2% in December, marking the ninth drop in the past 10 months, according to CoreLogic's hedonic Home Value Index (HVI).
The national median value now stands at $803,624, which is -3.9% lower than a year ago and equivalent to a drop of around $32,200. New Zealand home values are also still -17.6% below the post-COVID peak, although +16.2% higher than the pre-COVID level from March 2020.
Around the main centres, a slightly more consistent picture is emerging, with Kirikiriroa Hamilton rising by +1.0% in December, Tauranga by +0.4%, Ōtepoti Dunedin +0.3%, and Ōtautahi Christchurch holding steady. But there is still downward pressure in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland (-0.4%) and Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington (-0.8%).
CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist, Kelvin Davidson said that December's fall in values at the national level was an apt summary for 2024.
"Since the mini-peak back in February, property values have drifted lower at a modest pace, initially reflecting the high level of mortgage rates, but more recently the weakness of the labour market,” he said.
“December's mild drop was simply a continuation of that pattern and sums up the market's soggy performance in 2024."
He pointed out that there has been a discernible slowdown in the rate of decline in recent months, potentially signaling that the floor for property values could be within reach. “We're still seeing some sluggish results in Auckland and Wellington, but firmer trends seem to be starting to emerge elsewhere."
"That would certainly be consistent with the influence of lower mortgage rates, particularly the falls for the internal serviceability test rates at the banks. The popularity of either floating loans or short-term fixes at present is helping those lower rates pass through fairly quickly too.”
“However, job insecurity will still be playing a restraining role, as is the elevated levels of listings available on the market."
"These 'conflicting forces' may remain a key theme for the property market in 2025 as well, with the effects of lower mortgage rates dampened to some extent by a still-sluggish economy and credit restrictions in the form of debt to income ratios."
| CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index | ||||
| Residential Dwellings | ||||
| December 2024 | ||||
| District | Median Dwelling Value | Monthly change | Quarterly change | Annual change |
| All of Aotearoa | $803,624 | -0.17% | -0.33% | -3.85% |
| Far North District | $631,464 | -0.71% | -2.89% | -9.66% |
| Whangarei District | $714,374 | 0.18% | -1.04% | -5.61% |
| Kaipara District | $742,484 | -1.06% | -3.53% | -10.28% |
| Auckland - Rodney | $1,231,718 | -0.48% | -1.57% | -6.11% |
| Auckland - North Shore | $1,305,469 | 0.12% | 1.65% | -3.44% |
| Auckland - Waitakere | $932,493 | -0.16% | 0.45% | -5.12% |
| Auckland - City | $1,141,601 | -0.70% | -1.18% | -7.66% |
| Auckland - Manukau | $1,006,960 | -0.11% | -0.28% | -6.20% |
| Auckland - Papakura | $829,217 | -0.33% | -0.81% | -7.56% |
| Auckland - Franklin | $895,627 | -0.71% | -2.03% | -5.97% |
| Thames-Coromandel District | $975,310 | -1.58% | -3.11% | -5.36% |
| Hauraki District | $628,081 | -0.88% | -1.52% | -3.85% |
| Waikato District | $895,885 | 0.78% | -0.57% | -0.14% |
| Matamata-Piako District | $689,748 | 0.11% | -0.92% | -4.16% |
| Hamilton City | $743,667 | 1.03% | 1.62% | -1.39% |
| Waipa District | $900,523 | 0.35% | -0.60% | -0.69% |
| Otorohanga District | $616,545 | 0.21% | 0.30% | -3.98% |
| South Waikato District | $434,165 | 1.35% | 3.10% | -0.21% |
| Waitomo District | $458,353 | 1.58% | 1.24% | -1.65% |
| Taupo District | $761,690 | 2.01% | 0.44% | 1.27% |
| Western Bay of Plenty District | $1,045,169 | 1.49% | 0.63% | -3.02% |
| Tauranga City | $907,318 | 0.44% | 0.70% | -3.77% |
| Rotorua District | $619,602 | -0.10% | 0.37% | 0.16% |
| Whakatane District | $741,947 | 0.46% | 1.32% | -3.70% |
| Kawerau District | $385,200 | -0.08% | -0.45% | -7.25% |
| Opotiki District | $606,791 | -0.64% | -1.61% | 2.19% |
| Gisborne District | $561,168 | -0.47% | -2.70% | -8.94% |
| Wairoa District | $367,898 | -0.81% | -0.64% | -9.79% |
| Hastings District | $722,870 | -0.53% | 0.28% | -4.92% |
| Napier City | $689,140 | 0.21% | 0.94% | -2.77% |
| Central Hawke's Bay District | $594,258 | 0.08% | 0.96% | -1.94% |
| New Plymouth District | $698,364 | -0.29% | 0.52% | 1.96% |
| Stratford District | $502,121 | -0.94% | -1.90% | -2.94% |
| South Taranaki District | $412,344 | -1.51% | -1.85% | -5.95% |
| Ruapehu District | $388,020 | 0.20% | -0.22% | -2.31% |
| Whanganui District | $487,570 | -0.33% | -0.05% | 2.50% |
| Rangitikei District | $432,818 | 0.46% | -0.14% | -4.53% |
| Manawatu District | $596,213 | -0.55% | -3.26% | -2.54% |
| Palmerston North City | $603,002 | 0.15% | -0.21% | -2.64% |
| Tararua District | $390,918 | -0.19% | -0.50% | -5.23% |
| Horowhenua District | $511,796 | -0.77% | -0.76% | -5.29% |
| Kapiti Coast District | $803,279 | -0.12% | 0.65% | -2.64% |
| Porirua City | $750,960 | -0.30% | 0.30% | -3.60% |
| Upper Hutt City | $715,225 | -0.28% | -1.91% | -4.66% |
| Lower Hutt City | $670,573 | -1.16% | -1.69% | -6.82% |
| Wellington City | $893,048 | -0.89% | -2.33% | -7.26% |
| Masterton District | $541,778 | -1.16% | -1.25% | -3.27% |
| Carterton District | $668,742 | -1.05% | -0.47% | -8.97% |
| South Wairarapa District | $768,687 | -0.40% | 0.01% | -7.71% |
| Tasman District | $847,033 | 0.17% | -0.70% | 0.56% |
| Nelson City | $727,505 | 0.11% | 0.62% | 1.04% |
| Marlborough District | $673,853 | 0.31% | 0.39% | 0.25% |
| Kaikoura District | $778,067 | -0.01% | 1.31% | 4.74% |
| Buller District | $373,052 | 0.49% | -0.42% | -0.24% |
| Grey District | $411,981 | -0.90% | -2.38% | 0.41% |
| Westland District | $462,702 | 0.45% | -1.83% | 1.07% |
| Hurunui District | $686,855 | 0.13% | -0.26% | -0.39% |
| Waimakariri District | $754,684 | -0.45% | -0.56% | -0.85% |
| Christchurch City | $664,830 | 0.01% | 0.29% | 0.32% |
| Selwyn District | $859,547 | -0.02% | -0.27% | -0.08% |
| Ashburton District | $506,655 | -0.59% | -0.62% | 1.71% |
| Timaru District | $503,263 | 0.11% | -0.59% | 2.09% |
| Mackenzie District | $695,488 | 0.44% | 1.77% | -1.92% |
| Waimate District | $475,070 | 0.08% | -0.36% | -0.83% |
| Waitaki District | $490,817 | -0.16% | 0.00% | 1.29% |
| Central Otago District | $910,746 | 0.48% | 2.87% | 3.63% |
| Queenstown-Lakes District | $1,433,921 | -0.07% | 0.21% | 1.90% |
| Dunedin City | $607,327 | 0.31% | 0.48% | 0.99% |
| Clutha District | $403,515 | 0.02% | -0.81% | 1.41% |
| Southland District | $529,770 | -2.47% | -2.67% | -0.61% |
| Gore District | $434,950 | -0.10% | 1.17% | 4.56% |
| Invercargill City | $469,154 | -0.18% | 1.05% | 4.33% |
87 Comments
I said -10% from Dec 23 to Dec 24
Auckland got damn close.... I got way closer then the positive crap most Spruikers where saying... and from above its the 10th drop monthly and still falling... not sure whos is eating hat, I suspect the Spruikers.
Auckland - Rodney$1,231,718-0.48%-1.57% -6.11%
Auckland - North Shore$1,305,4690.12%1.65% -3.44%
Auckland - Waitakere$932,493-0.16%0.45% -5.12%
Auckland - City$1,141,601-0.70%-1.18% -7.66%
Auckland - Manukau$1,006,960-0.11%-0.28% -6.20%
Auckland - Papakura$829,217-0.33%-0.81% -7.56%
Auckland - Franklin$895,627-0.71%-2.03% -5.97%
You are on the right side of the ledger. I for one am surprised at how long it takes for house values to drop during a downturn.
I suspect that there is about 18 months worth, of stale inventory, about to be listed once again in the next 6 months. My forecast is for record listing levels in Feb and March 2025
The median and average drop takes longer because those selling lower in a city can and will still pay higher in a region.
Price house movements can be modeled like wave mechanics across a 2-dimensional geographic plane (prices as 3rd dimension). A drop here might cause a rise somewhere else, and the corresponding movements of valuations rippling out from both locations. Much like skipping stones.
Same thing happened during price rises - a rise here meant a rise there. Why? New credit creation.
So the overall movement will depend on new credit creation - as we saw during the bubbling. Reducing prices just mean less credit is being created, or more people are cashing out.
I’m humble enough to know I cannot make complex predictions with any real accuracy so don’t bother with such fruitless endeavours. All I can tell you is what the data has revealed looking back, a downward trend. I just enjoy the narratives behind those who think they can, it’s not personal.
but I am not wrong
https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/the-nsw-sea-change-towns-where-hou…
NZ has more to go...........
2025 til at least August will be same story in Auckland. Regardless of rate cuts which don’t make houses affordable.
Sales in Auckland in 12 months to Nov were 1000 lower than to Nov 2023. Excess sales during manias like April 20 til Nov 21 require period when sales are deflated. Sorry but that period will last til 2027. Prices may rise a little but that will simply deplete sales again
I think it's time to for many level up in 2025 when it comes to understanding data. And that's important with hedonic price indexes. For ex:
Assumption of Rationality: Hedonic pricing models often assume that all buyers have similar preferences and make rational decisions based solely on available attributes. This oversimplification ignores the complexities of behavior and market dynamics.
Lagging Price Adjustments: Model assumes that market prices adjust immediately to changes in attributes and conditions. However, in practice, price adjustments may lag due to various factors like economic conditions or buyer sentiment.
So while hedonic price indexes provide "directional insight" into the Aotearoa Ponzi, people must understand that there are limits to understanding what's really going on.
I took the dogs for a walk around my neighbourhood (Christchurch) and walked through some of the townhouse complexes on my route.
#1 - 44 townhouses in a completed development, only one was occupied. Good luck selling the other 43!
#2 - 6 townhouses in a development, none were occupied.
#3 - 4 townhouses being built, but very, very slowly. The retirement village next door has managed to build a dozen or so villas in about half the time of that townhouse build, and the retirement villas are at a more finished stage. Has the townhouse developer run out of money? I will be returning in a few weeks to see if I can spot any workers there.
#4 - still got another 6 townhouse development to walk around on my next outing ....
Meanwhile, a townhouse development I know of has cut prices by $250k since first trying to sell them.
Gosh this is fun. Have popcorn.
Merivale-St Albans. I know the properties are unoccupied because they all still have no window furnishings so I looked in the windows, and there is no furniture in them. A couple of them have staging furniture for open homes but they are easy to tell (minimalist look, no curtains, no whiteware).
KW, what street are these 44 townhouses that are unoccupied?
I suspect that they will be mostly all sold as I doubt any development company in CHch is going to be building 44 units for speculative purposes?
If they did they are surely not that bright, however it will not be Williams or Wolfbrook as they do not operate that way, or in that bulk without big pre-sales!
We are well aware that therr are too many apartment type property being built but there are also some very good operators who are trading very well financially.
They have been listed for sale since August when they were completed. If they had been sold off the plan, they would have been occupied or rented out by now. There are currently two "for rent" advertisements by the developer which were placed mid-October. No buyers, no renters.
Its not a WC or WB development. The complex is on Donald Pl. The developer paid $11M for the land which was the old bowling club. Its a massive complex on a tiny cul de sac street designed for 10 houses. Its the most inappropriate development I've ever seen and can't understand how the Council approved such an intensive development on that little street. I look forward to finding out how 88 rubbish bins are going to be placed on the sidewalk for collection.
Further to complex #4 - Advertised prices for that unsold block started at $739k. They are currently down to $669k. Still no takers.
They will sell over time but they appear to be too expensive cir what they are!
There will be plenty of fat in it for the developer and he will need to bring the prices down if he wants to sell them in good time.
3 bedrooms at 81m2 and no garage at $999k is just ridiculous but there are a lot of people who will pay far too much than they need to.
The living areas are really only catering for 2 people and therefore their number of buyers are very limited.
there have been some very good buys around ChCh over the past year or two but most do not see it, which is great for those that know what they are doing.
The answer to this is quite hilarious. Non local buyers who dont know the New Brighton area think they are buying a lovely spot by the seaside and cant believe their luck to get something so close to the beach for so cheap. Bargain of the Century!
Local buyers are ROFLMAO
The problem with the Merivale-St Albans townhouses is that they are not designed for the people who want to live in Merivale-St Albans. They are not family homes, they are not even suitable for professional couples. They are pokey little sweat boxes designed for people who have just got off a plane with nothing but a suitcase. And those people can rent something cheaper in Linwood or Woolston.
"Survive to 2025", but what if the promise of lower rates doesn’t come through? If the bond market keeps selling off, we might not see any more OCR cuts, maybe even a hike or two instead. Those banking on easy money could be blindsided. By the way, U.S. 30-year mortgage rates just went up.
Survive the deep Ponzi dive in 25.........
The sea levels are sure to rise, with the profuse cold sweats and tears of the overleveraged, ponzi pompers and failed and faulty Oneroof writing spoofs.
TA and AC must be sick to the core, with their Ponzi pile of real estate empires, becoming worth-less each year and not the +5 to +10% gains they promised all, each year, since the Ponzi generational high tide and subsequent and still unravelling implosion, starting 2022.
Most of the epic housing crashes have taken 6+ years to bottom out......
For the few Debt Junkies that survive, the next 2 years of economic pains....it will be fervent prayers to the nefarius Oneroof writers/Junkies, banksters, mortgage brokers, lawyers, for encouraging words and the always hyped, but still unseen rebound and " hope for a return to Ponzi heaven in 2027"
The RE cabal, allied leeches, are all starving and may to find real, harder, actually productive work to do.
- One minute silence please, as we start a very challenging and difficult financially 2025, for these poor, leeching sops.
All the best for 2025 SAH.
You and I are reading different tea leaves......I see some houses now selling near 2017 and 2018 valuations.
With inflation ripping us all at 22% since Q1 2020, the Covid gains are a mirage and most have gone backwards in realterms on housing, including myself.
That's why diversified investments are of utmost importance, and having a lot of your cash outside of the Crashing NZD is the best place to have invested a year or two ago.
Anyway if your rents are rolling in reliably, sure you will be fine and in the positives, comè the late 2020s
"some houses selling at 2017-2018 prices"
Yes, I see it too, run down, require major work, has various unconsented work etc etc, these houses FHBs struggle to buy as can't get loans, great for flickers to make some coin on, have watched a number of these bought and 6 months later after a facelift selling well above RV.
Many vendors/ agents in Auckland are still in lalaland. Maybe buying the hype re: lower interest rates and higher prices.
Had a casual look at 2 bedroom units this morning. Often small, non/renovated and only in good-ish locations typically asking 750-800k. At least 10% too high
Buying at pre-2020 prices allowed for that a lot easier than many FHB's who are sweating through their paychecks to upkeep a large mortgage or heading to Oz to afford to continue holding their mortgage. Have to remember perspective for the future of the youth if we wish to keep them here.
Factor in inflation and NZ doller drop this is a very big drop in international terms.
Most speculators are very short sighted and cannot see past NZ debt servicing. It's all about tax free gains on the local numbers after all. That petrol and imported goods are thru the roof, and their renters are being crushed by endless rent rises and inflation, they couldn't care less.
The only way to address this narsastic approach is to change the tax free/avoidance model that underpins it. Something easy and unavoidable that targets the land speculation element.
Reintroduce land tax.
Diversify into many assets in NZ and overseas.
Some who put it all on the Black, reliant on low and lower interest rates, at the NZ Housing Market Ponzi Casino - and have lost it all.......some much worse, they still owe the bank for the forced sale, house sale value net loss.
Interest rate gamblers are rolling the dice still.......
Disagree to some extent Gecko. Currently diversification is for losers - look at the 60/40 portfolio. Deploying capital into outsized opportunities has become the name of the game. Unfortunately this narrative is not pushed by the majority of financial advisors and the hoi polloi suffer as a result. Unfashionable thing to say I know.
Correct, as long as they don't claim all the capital gains were all through hard work, as opposed uncontrolled factors such as 30years of decreasing real interest rates and increasing private credit allowing for price increases, or from cashing in on the 2021 price bonanza ;P
No. Key point is out tax model favors debt based property speculation. Untill that changes NZ is fated to continue along it current path. Property speculation and associated interests will all do their damnest to avoid that change.
Aotearoa could make the housing stock a 'strategic reserve asset.' Sound ridiculous? I don't think so.
Given that it's the foundation for our monetary system, private sector vitality, and store of 'savings', it's very much strategic as it is an asset.
Here we go again.. it’s the “speculators that are driving prices up” is a tired old rubbishy notion that all lefties love to use when they are looking for an excuse without thinking. Speculators are not the problem. It’s the Mums and Dads sitting in their own homes that make the true tax free gains when they sell. When a property sells whether it’s sold by a speculator or a Mum and Dad the price fetched affects all similar properties no matter who owns them. The way to correct this anomaly is to tax all profits on all properties equally unless the total proceeds are used to replace another like property within a certain time. And while I’m at it, lowering interest rates is a short term fix which will only create a bigger problem. The NZ dollar will fall further and further for every point interest rates drop. This puts up the costs of imports which feeds straight into inflation. Any increase in export earnings will be gobbled up by imports and then some. For those of you who rub your hands at falling house prices, think it through carefully. The building industry, already in tatters, risks becoming a hobby for the rich and idle, as new builds pay todays prices for labour and materials while used houses fall further into a hole. Cheer up, Xmas is only 11 months and three weeks away.
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