Residential auction activity seems to have settled into a fairly stable pattern over the last month, although there was a slight drop in the overall sales rate last week.
Interest.co.nz monitored the auctions of 454 residential properties last week (9-15 November), with that number having hovered between 428 and 458 for the last four weeks.
Of the 454 properties on offer, 175 were sold under the hammer, giving an overall sales rate of 39%.
That was the lowest sales rate in the last four weeks, but only slightly so, it having been between 42% and 44% over the previous three weeks.
Overall there were no surprises in the latest figures.
Auction room activity seems to be maintaining an even keel for the start of summer and we expect activity to remain busy if unexceptional for the time of year, through to the week before Christmas.
The chart below shows the latest results form the auctions around the country monitored by interest.co.nz, and the details of the individual properties, including the selling prices of those that sold, can be found on the on Residential Auction Results page.
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31 Comments
Today's headline, "A very slight dip in auction sales....." will have the DGM salivating with excitement, especially after yesterday's headline - which held them frantic with fear.
TTP
Stop making stupid assumptions..
Not this DGM. It’s not worth paying attention to the month to month noise. The fundamentals of the housing market crash are solid, and it rolls on unabated.
Good thing markets aren't overly rational or predictable then...
Not this DGM. It’s not worth paying attention to the month to month noise.
These data sets are for idle chatter - their sole worth. The importance of the Ponzi as the be-all-and-end-all means that some people see value, patterns, and hope in the data.
Ashley Church and the other gurus might see something in the table [eyes rolling back in his head; entering some trance-like state]
I feel like it's not worth paying attention to most of these 'stats' as they're rarely in context of the larger view
Constructive as always. Tui.
Like a thousand posts lusting after collapse? Repeated calls of "do the math!"?
This downturn's less of a downturn than even I was expecting.
Should really be an inflection point on how many of us were/are viewing the economy, and maybe how to operate in it. First tip: it's not going to operate in line with your wishes and expectations.
So Pa1nter, with your bullish stance on NZ residential property, in your educated and astute view, can we expect to see:
1. Auction results for Auckland to hit a 65 % sale rate ?
2. Of those sales at auction, 50% hitting CV and above ?
3. Gross rental returns come back to at least 7.5%, on a new property investment ?
I'm not really a property bull, but if averageman wants to complain about constructive posts, I'm highlighting that what, some 20-30% of the posts on here for years, have been absolutely out of touch with how the market has played out.
But to answer your questions:
Auction success rates rarely get above 60%, even in relatively healthier times. Even now, the clearance rate doesn't tell us much about the state of housing, because auctions aren't in vogue at the moment as a marketing method.
At some point, you'll see many sales at or above CV
Gross returns haven't been at 7.5% for quite some time, and won't likely do so for the foreseeable future. For the record, I don't think retail residential property investment (i.e. buy any house and rent it out) is of a decent return.
@Painter - sounds like a pretty reasonable response to me. thumbs up
I'm not sure if anyone keeps a nice record of the data, but I'm sure I remember routine 90%+ auction sale rates in Auckland during the boom times.
This website does.
2019 the clearance rate was mid 50s, in COVID mania it was early to mid 60s.
But less places are currently being auctioned, because they usually require qualified buyers, and at the moment not many buyers can qualify - hence also the lower success rate.
I'm sure the vendors will meet the market any day now, as has been asserted on here for a year and a half now.
I'm thinking of the pre-COVID foreign buyer frenzies, pretty high sales rates back then.
As long as you stayed outside the crazy Covid window of a couple of years, its been great.
So out of 296 properties in the Auckland area, that went for auction, only 10.45% actually SOLD AND FOR ABOVE THE RV
What a great business model that is !
Kelvin Davidson (a straight-talking, almost zero spruiking, non-bank economist): Planning to buy your first home in 2025? Watch out for these guys
On Point 1, FHBs really need to thank the National Party & ACT Party's for this awesome eventually. /sarc
FOMO so big it can't even be captured in the stats.
In Auckland less than 10% of properties auctioned selling over CV. Bit lower than recent months but not much. Nothing to see here.
There is nothing to see here, Auckland's CV is way out of date now and they are delaying updating it.
I just can't see a good reason for it's delay. Surely some KPI's have been missed and some heads should roll - this was a scheduled task with years of lead time!
It's the valuer general's office kicked them back to AC to do some rework.
https://ourauckland.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/news/2024/10/new-timeline-f…
Failed QA is still a missed KPI.
The spin in that piece is bigger than Warne’s ‘Ball of the Century’
We need an index of the Ponzi that can be traded 24/7. It could keep you occupied day and night Z. No reason why it can't be done. Rismark had plans for something similar for the Aussie Ponzi. Never got off the ground as an exchange tradable instrument.
With Aussie banks sitting around 70% lending book into NZ residential housing, Shorting them is your hedge option, there is an active derivatives market.
The roads are quiet outside 'rush' times. The coalition govt is slowly closing their wallets & will continue to do so. That's 30 something per cent of everything being trimmed back for a start. I would still like to see more civil servant terminations, especially of the admins, but get the feeling they're not finished yet.
Speaking of govt budgets....What's the bet on Musk & Vivek really getting going? Gee I hope they can cull it hard. Would like to see a million of the worst behaving illegals flown home in 2025 as well.
PS: Apologies for my hard-arsed attitude David.
Second house this month on our street sold in less than 2 weeks. Pre auction offer. The right properties in the right locations are having no trouble selling at all.
How much did they pay for it?
Properties at the right price are having no trouble selling. Most are not being marketed at the right price.
I don’t know yet but would have to have been more than they were expecting at auction for it to have been sold prior.
I haven't jumped into the comments section for many months. It's like I was here yesterday. Same old people saying the same old things, and sniping each other. Haven't you people got anything better to do? Probably gonna be deleted, so won't matter...
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