Spring has arrived with a bang in the auction rooms, with a substantial jump in activity at the latest auctions monitored by interest.co.nz.
Altogether interest.co.nz monitored the auctions of 438 residential properties around the country over the week of 19-25 October.
That was up from 340 auctioned properties the previous week, and 289 the week before that.
Of the 438 properties on offer at the latest auctions, 192 sold under the hammer, giving an overall sales rate of 44%.
That means the sales rate has been hovering around 40% to 44% for the last two months.
The latest increase in auction numbers is believed to be due, at least in part, to a couple of so-called mega auctions, where real estate companies compress a large number of auctions into a single event in an effort to lift potential buyer interest.
However while auction numbers are up and sales levels are holding their own, buyers remain cautious on price, with just 31% of the properties that sold at the latest auctions fetching prices equal to or above their most recent rating valuation.
Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, including the selling prices of those that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.
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69 Comments
My goodness - this is a rollercoaster. Anyway I take above as good news. 0.75 drop in November will crank up the volume big time - BNZ 7% prediction growth might be a good one. - I almost hate being right on this website.
Why is it a roller coaster? It’s all pretty predictable
Probably a built up pile of sellers and buyers. Throw in a strong signal rate rises are not only over but cuts look most likely, and a sprinkling of mega auctions and "vola"....some agents get paid, and the speculative faithful all rejoice that it's back to the races.
If you can predict one thing in 2025, it’s that bank economist predictions will turn out incorrect.
My guess is they will be close to flat if they have stopped falling as a national index
Yves forgot to tell us that his neighbour finally sold their place last month
Paid $2.35m in April 2015
Sold for $2.375m in Sept 2024
Was listed for $2.85m so a chocolate fish goes to the commentator who predicted "around $2.4m” (sorry - can’t remember who this was)
RV was $4.05m
https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/saint-marys-bay/10a-harbour-street…
That's a 0.12% per year annual return in nominal terms. And owning for 9 years !!! Ouch.
It'd be a fabulous location when every vehicle passing by is an EV.
Was Chairman Moa.
by Chairman Moa | 20th Aug 24, 11:56am
My thinking is around 2.4m
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/129287/house-prices-continued-tumbl…
Who is Yves?
Yvil. I think Yves is a pet name for his pseudonym?
Yves, a French name pronounced ‘eve’. Hence Yvil, a play on Evil. I think he said it was a childhood nickname
DDDDebt - bought my original house in new windsor for 385k 2 bedroom free standing cross leased sold last year for 860k. Made over 500k. - so the house more than doubled in 10 years.
So yea every bad story has a good story i guess - it worked for me
To summarise the next 200 comments:
" I told you so! Houses are always a good investment. Buy now"
"Nah, it's a dead cat bounce"
"I told you so! House prices are still dropping. Don't buy now"
🙄
Lets see - usually when the news is 'good' the comments are way less.
Retired poopy will have to have his negative spin.
Can you unpack what the ‘good news’ is in this article?
@timelord IYKYK :)
It’s plausible that the housing market has over-corrected in the downward direction……
If so, there may be some fast / sharp gains in activity over the next few months - especially if further falls in the OCR are waiting in the wings.
Happy Labour Weekend, everyone! 👍🏻😃
TTP
“It’s plausible”, “if so”, “there may”
The spinning words of speculation from the mouth of a convicted fraudster with zero reference to anything in this article.
......spinning words of speculation......
Alliteration won't offset your malice and lies, Time Lord ......
Clearly, you're of limited mental horizons - but unbounded saltiness.
TTP
"of a convicted fraudster"?
One notes TTP didn't challenge you on those words. Ergo, they are not in dispute. ... Can you tell us more?
You can learn more about TTP Tim here: Property Brokers Manawatu and director fined $1.5m in price fixing case
He has a bit of arrogant chutzpah to keep posting despite all that
That 192 people that wanted to sell their house did, and 192 people that wanted to buy a house found one at a price they were willing to pay.
Your interpretation of ‘good news’ is not newsworthy.
Enjoy your weekend of doom and gloom mate.
There's no news. It's never news
If one actually wants to make a financial decision based on the sales numbers, they will never make it based on last week's numbers. They will always look at rolling averages and general trend. One week's number is but a blip, upwards or downwards
Well played 😂
The beautiful thing with data is that if they spin it the right way then they can all be right too! 🌪
Curious, how does Nelson bays have zero sold but 9% sold?
Fat finger? The "0" is next to the "9" on the keys above the letters on a keyboard.
You would think they would have a spreadsheet but obviously not.
"buyers remain cautious"
And so they should.
Have we all seen the price of Gold against the falling NZ$ this morning? NZ$4,587.58 - way above the recent All-Time High. And we know what that is screaming at us, don't we?!
Yep. Rampant Inflation is headed all of our ways, and we also know what the only remedy to that is - a much higher cost of Debt. Interest Rates, mortgage rates, are going to soar, as they did the last time Inflation escaped. And not the escape of the last couple of years, that saw some countries at +10% CPI increase, but the 30% ones of 40 years ago.
So. Buy whatever you want, by all means - just don't use OPM - Debt. Because the cost of that is going to take off.
Oh, and if we think the RBNZ and its OCR is going to be the defender of interest rates, then think again. Because the RBNZ will have no choice but to raise rates to defend the currency.
BW why do you think inflation is going to ‘soar’?
And when do you think that will happen?
FWIW, I don’t think it will. But neither do I think we will see deflation
The case for inflation to rise, is that at present there is a motherload of liquidity in the financial system globally (look at the current outcome; ie stocks, crypto etc), and several central banks are easing into what could be a nascent melt up. Arguably conditions are not restrictive, albeit not yet overly easy, but the current easing is well on the way to changing that. Gold and bonds are also sending curious signals - I wouldn't say this is necessarily a strong indication one way or the other yet, but this behavior raises a clear question mark.
Shhhhh no one mention the facts
- Auction numbers are up apparently due to mega auctions consolidating multiple properties in one event.
- Only 31% of sold properties met or exceeded their recent valuation.
@Amokk I would think only mega auctions take place if the market can take it - also sales up to 44% from mid 30s last week is good. Anyway no problems - Buy or dont buy all good with me ps buyers should be cautious always because you make your money when you buy - keep being cautious until you not cautious and then FOMO - now we wait
buyers should be cautious always because you make your money when you buy
How's that working for you at the moment?
Yes .....how's that working out for the tens of thousands that got duped, and crammed en masse into the roller coaster Ddddebt train in the last 5 years??????
Badly, negative equity for tens of thousands and in the event of a required sale.......all their money is gone, finished, finito!
Pls they will still likely owe the bank a wad of cash!
Take care to the current buyers who the spruikers need to step up......to offload their dross "investments".......their stale, doggie doo bags, need passing on.....like old wirely ole fox, Luxy is doing. This ole fox knows when to quit at the top.....
Wars- ongoing and escalating, deglobisation, expensive nearshoriing, trade wars with new and increased tarifs, shipping dangers of goods/oil, will see inflation reignite in 2025.
NZs current infatuation with short term Debt fixing, of large Debts, could be an ultimate self inflicted uppercut, to an already beleaguered and economically numpty mortgage holders......
@NZG - gave you a like again well written and articulate and you are a word smith - true tomment
on.....like old wirely ole fox, Luxy is doing. This ole fox knows when to quit at the top.....
Evidently, this is wrong. Surely a wiley fox would have sold in 2021-22, rather than wait for property to fall by ~20%.
There's certainly some truth in your other comments, though it's a far less certain scenario than you imply.
Disinflationary signals from China's slowdown, global ageing, automation, renewables and AI could all counter the inflationary forces.
Luxy has the "ultimate inside knowledge". The current NZ house pricing is still very high and elevated when measured against NZ incomes.
- Luxy sees that this recent, 6th, dead cat bounce, is the last and in the future, NZ home pricing is going lower, much lower.
Luxy is in the know, more than most and obviously acting on it,......
@snow to be honest its not been great lately - however it will turn again - been in it for a while - at least no one will see my tears of the paper loss' in the pool, ps dont be fooled I am crying in the pool (28 degrees) and real tears - its been a tough lately
Yet recent valuations are typically quite a bit higher than current market values, so I wouldn’t read too much into that.
Does anyone have evidence of these 'mega' property auctions? The only one I'm aware of was on 2 October at Ray White in Takanini and 15 properties were auctioned according to their Facebook page - doesn't seem that mega. Arguably they could just be a marketing ploy by Ray White to advertise their brand, there was also a 3 week marketing package for $3.5k that vendors could buy in the lead up to the auction so they're a way for them to make extra $ too.
I think we can all agree, that if you are in the market to purchase a house and you see something that ticks all the boxes and is a reasonable price, you need to be quick.
For FHBs I would suggest looking for a house that the vendor has owned for a long time and needs a bit of cosmetic work.
Prospective landlords need to be careful that the property can comply with healthy homes standards without too much expense or at least factor that in.
Disclaimer: I am but a humble computer engineer and this is all based on historical observation. Pandemics and WW3 could influence prices up or down. At some point many will have to "roll the dice", hoping world leaders won't "roll the iron dice".
Sorry folks. It's happening. We're going to do it again. Another cycle of mortgage debt driven balance sheet and consumption expansion that we will laughably call 'growth'.
Exactly. Although I think the next ‘leg up’ will be fairly mild.
Not too many DGM showing up here today ......
For sure, they sense the writing is on the wall for them and their idiosyncratic blather.
Predictably, some (like Retired-Poppy) will go into hiding for an extended period of time. Humiliation and embarrassment.
TTP
If he has not gone already he will be packing his bags in November at the next OCR cut.
“Not too many DGM showing up here today ......”
Maybe they are all busy in/ outside of the auction rooms.
by tothepoint | 26th Oct 24, 10:03am - Predictably, some (like Retired-Poppy) will go into hiding for an extended period of time. Humiliation and embarrassment.
Ha-ha :), Why all the fuss over my absence? I've been busy helping a friend move. Anyway Tim, given your track record of predictions - I'm a paid up member here and I'm not going anywhere. I enjoy this forum and I have no reasons to feel embarrassed.
The better question is, will you still be commenting on here after 01-March? I know I will be.
Well ...
1. The RBNZ could ratchet down the froth by tightening LVRs & DTIs. Will they though? Hell no. (At least not until it's way too late!)
2. The NZ government could rebalance the tax system to direct capital into productive enterprise. Will they though? Hell no. (Donors are happy, dumb voters are fooled and everyone thinks the good times are here again.)
So yeah. Once again, bang on the money, Jfoe.
You said something will change
We were all dressed up
Somewhere to go
No sign of rain
But something will change
You promised
You said nothing will change
We were almost near
Almost far
Down came the rain
But nothing will change
You promised
A promise a promise a promise
It’s exactly the same
You said
It’s always the same
But I’ll make it change
Into something the same
I promise
Echo & the Bunnymen? Saw them live a few times.
Underrated band. Playing ‘Heaven Up Here’ while cleaning the house. I think the lyrics are quite profound. Mac is an underrated lyricist
Agreed. E&tBM came to my attention with 'The Cutter'. (yeah. late pick up). I have tons and tons of vinyl from that era played just once (straight onto tape.) Once the majority have figured out how badly we've been served by our elected representatives, hey, it may be worth a fortune. (The Cutter came out in 1983. Margaret Thatcher has been in power for four years.)
big fan, killing moon is in my top five songs of all time.
There we go, men of intellect and good taste.
Killing Moon is an amazing, epic song.
I always liked their 5th album, the eponymous one. But not generally rated very highly. It was my entry into them in 1988, as a 16 year old
Exactly right. DTIs too high, and FHBs should get the easier multiple rather than “investors”. Should be 6 for FHB (income of younger buyers likely to grow more over time, and they need a competitive advantage in order to enter the market) and max 5 for everyone else.
Developing productive enterprises is what will provide solid long term economic growth and jobs for future generations, not pumping up the prices of the same houses and crippling most people with debt, which profits only shareholders of Australian banks and the only exports produced are of our young and talented people….So sad. And even sadder that most kiwis can’t see it or actively cheer it on
Still only 31% achieving RV though.
As per my post above, that doesn’t mean much.
Example - my home’s RV is 900k. Two months ago I would say it might sell for 750-800k. Now it might sell for 820k. That sale would be a price lower than RV. Yet the price is clearly higher than it might have been two months ago, indicating prices rising.
Considering RV was issued at the absolute peak of the inflated market, it's actually amazing that a third are achieving those prices.
Correct.
"... it's actually amazing that a third are achieving those prices."
Um. No. It is not amazing at all. These are:
- Auction sales (always a few where emotions take over)
- Auctions are a fraction of total sales and generally occur only if there is expected to be multiple buyers interested (or sellers insist on an auction)
- Council valuations which are wildly variable in their accuracy ... may be by a 3rd?
- Make no account of how much the owners have spent enhancing their properties
- Buying power has increased since many valuations have been made
- not that surprising when one looks at the places getting above RV ... look at a few using Homes and you'll see what I mean
Maybe, were half or more above RVs (and Auckland hadn't delayed their RVs again), then it would peak my interest. Otherwise ... Sorry. Nothing to see here.
One notes the Zwifter and 6 others were fooled. Ho hum. Hopium, ay?
RV's are way out of date, they will be dropping like they did in Tauranga so the 31% will quickly jump higher, especially in Auckland if they ever release the figures. The problem is the wild swings in the market so I would pretty much just ignore the RV. Paid well over the RV when I bought my place, no regrets its now worth $100K over what I paid for it in 2020. The market only moves in one direction if you give it several years to even out on that upward trend line.
"...no regrets its now worth $100K over what I paid for it in 2020."
Funny how often one hears that from self-valued properties.
One Roof. I wouldn't sell it now if someone knocked on the door and offered me $1M tomorrow. Just not possible to build one like this in the type of location anywhere near that price point.
So what it's worth is essentially irrelevant is what you are saying.
He's just playing up the value and "rarity" of his house so please share in his admiration. The house has impressive features and they don't make them like that anymore. It really emphasizes his taste.
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