The value of New Zealand homes continued declining in August, according to property data company CoreLogic.
The median value of NZ dwellings was $811,583 in August, down 0.5% from July.
August was the sixth consecutive month the national median value has declined. It's now down $31,000 since its summer peak in February, and is 16.8% lower than its all time high set in January 2022.
The biggest decline in median values over the three months to August was in Gisborne at -6.5%.
All main centres showed declines in values over the three months to August, ranging from -0.3% in Christchurch to -3.3% in Auckland.
"No doubt many households will be feeling happier now that the Official Cash Rate is falling and mortgage rates are heading lower too," CoreLogic's chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said.
"This sentiment effect, as well as the direct boost to borrowers' finances, could support housing in the near term."
"Yet the latest, actual fall in values is a timely reminder that the market still faces considerable challenges too," Davidson said.
"For a start, housing affordability is still stretched, while at the same time the labour market downturn is fully underway. Even if people haven't lost their jobs, the increased feelings of insecurity will still tend to flow through to less enthusiasm to trade property or pay top dollar," said Davidson.
"It's also clear that the bargaining power lies with buyers in a market where the stock of available listings is sitting at multi-year highs. But that's still only for the more limited pool who can actually secure finance."
"This all adds up to likely further restraint on property values, although the potential impact of lower mortgage rates can't be ignored."
See the table below for the median value changes in all main urban districts throughout the country.
The comment stream on this story is now closed.
| CoreLogic Home Value Index | ||||
| August 2024 | ||||
| District | Median Value | Monthly change HVI | Quarterly chnage HVI | Annual change HVI |
| All of Aotearoa | $811,583 | -0.5% | -2.2% | 0.7% |
| Far North District | $641,757 | -1.7% | -6.0% | -3.7% |
| Whangarei District | $730,679 | -0.6% | -2.1% | -0.8% |
| Kaipara District | $784,547 | -2.6% | -6.0% | -4.1% |
| Auckland Region | $1,070,494 | -1.0% | -3.3% | -1.4% |
| Auckland - Rodney | $1,212,650 | -0.8% | -4.5% | -2.1% |
| Auckland - North Shore | $1,263,121 | -0.9% | -3.0% | -1.5% |
| Auckland - Waitakere | $930,008 | -0.6% | -3.1% | -2.1% |
| Auckland - City | $1,174,946 | -1.4% | -3.4% | -0.6% |
| Auckland - Manukau | $1,004,429 | -0.7% | -3.0% | -1.9% |
| Auckland - Papakura | $818,024 | -1.7% | -3.7% | -4.1% |
| Auckland - Franklin | $916,953 | -0.5% | -1.9% | -1.4% |
| Thames-Coromandel District | $1,036,108 | 0.0% | -2.1% | 2.8% |
| Hauraki District | $636,998 | -0.6% | -1.6% | 0.5% |
| Waikato District | $934,092 | -0.2% | -2.7% | 4.1% |
| Matamata-Piako District | $698,195 | -0.5% | -1.4% | -0.8% |
| Hamilton City | $734,414 | -0.8% | -1.9% | 2.5% |
| Waipa District | $907,476 | 0.2% | -1.0% | 0.9% |
| Otorohanga District | $613,923 | -1.6% | -3.4% | -1.8% |
| South Waikato District | $438,910 | -0.4% | -1.2% | 2.6% |
| Waitomo District | $454,836 | -0.8% | -1.6% | -0.7% |
| Taupo District | $765,643 | 1.2% | 0.2% | 2.9% |
| Western Bay of Plenty District | $1,047,778 | -0.5% | -1.0% | 3.1% |
| Tauranga City | $910,449 | -0.4% | -2.1% | -0.2% |
| Rotorua District | $596,560 | 0.1% | -1.1% | -0.6% |
| Whakatane District | $683,097 | -1.0% | -2.5% | -3.7% |
| Kawerau District | $390,961 | -0.9% | -2.7% | -3.9% |
| Opotiki District | $553,132 | -0.8% | 3.2% | 10.2% |
| Gisborne District | $582,102 | -0.1% | -6.5% | -9.4% |
| Wairoa District | $397,779 | -0.5% | -1.8% | -1.3% |
| Hastings District | $692,090 | -0.1% | -1.5% | 0.3% |
| Napier City | $706,479 | -0.4% | -2.9% | 0.2% |
| Central Hawke's Bay District | $585,316 | -0.5% | -3.5% | -0.5% |
| New Plymouth District | $676,973 | 0.0% | -1.8% | 8.5% |
| Stratford District | $493,545 | -0.6% | -3.1% | -1.7% |
| South Taranaki District | $433,238 | 0.1% | -0.8% | 0.8% |
| Ruapehu District | $390,180 | 0.0% | -1.1% | -1.9% |
| Whanganui District | $484,349 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 6.3% |
| Rangitikei District | $452,540 | -0.3% | -0.9% | 2.4% |
| Manawatu District | $627,017 | 0.0% | -0.7% | 3.8% |
| Palmerston North City | $604,264 | -0.7% | -2.3% | 0.6% |
| Tararua District | $421,680 | -0.2% | -1.3% | -0.7% |
| Horowhenua District | $525,973 | -0.6% | -2.8% | 0.4% |
| Wellington Region | $826,976 | -0.1% | -2.1% | 2.7% |
| Kapiti Coast District | $813,336 | -0.9% | -3.6% | 4.1% |
| Porirua City | $736,429 | -0.2% | -2.1% | 0.7% |
| Upper Hutt City | $763,940 | 0.0% | -1.6% | 6.1% |
| Lower Hutt City | $699,524 | -0.7% | -3.0% | 1.4% |
| Wellington City | $947,484 | 0.2% | -1.8% | 2.9% |
| Masterton District | $549,976 | 0.1% | -2.1% | 1.8% |
| Carterton District | $679,466 | -0.7% | -3.8% | -1.1% |
| South Wairarapa District | $753,898 | -0.8% | -3.3% | -5.7% |
| Tasman District | $862,039 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 4.6% |
| Nelson City | $718,302 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Marlborough District | $688,558 | -0.1% | -0.4% | 4.9% |
| Kaikoura District | $853,389 | 1.8% | 1.8% | 7.9% |
| Buller District | $376,798 | -0.8% | -2.0% | 8.4% |
| Grey District | $408,176 | 1.6% | -0.3% | 12.5% |
| Westland District | $474,284 | -0.6% | -0.6% | 8.7% |
| Hurunui District | $663,983 | 0.8% | -0.3% | 1.2% |
| Waimakariri District | $767,040 | -0.3% | -1.8% | 2.9% |
| Christchurch City | $686,806 | 0.2% | -0.3% | 3.6% |
| Selwyn District | $859,486 | 0.0% | -0.9% | 2.5% |
| Ashburton District | $540,344 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 4.5% |
| Timaru District | $528,300 | -0.1% | -0.8% | 3.8% |
| Mackenzie District | $693,538 | -0.4% | -1.4% | 0.3% |
| Waimate District | $541,391 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 6.0% |
| Waitaki District | $481,425 | -0.8% | -1.1% | 4.5% |
| Central Otago District | $839,586 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 3.3% |
| Queenstown-Lakes District | $1,559,958 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 3.3% |
| Dunedin City | $604,324 | -0.2% | -1.7% | 3.8% |
| Clutha District | $422,288 | -0.4% | 0.1% | 5.9% |
| Southland District | $567,289 | 1.0% | 0.4% | 3.5% |
| Gore District | $423,357 | 0.9% | 1.1% | 6.4% |
| Invercargill City | $471,443 | 0.7% | 1.2% | 6.1% |
- You can have articles like this delivered directly to your inbox via our free Property Newsletter. We send it out 3-5 times a week with all of our property-related news, including auction results, interest rate movements and market commentary and analysis. To start receiving them, register here (it's free) and when approved you can select any of our free email newsletters.
124 Comments
The stats show that the ChCh market is still very steady.
The median is badly skewed by the fact that there have been so many 2 bedroom townhouses built and sold over the past few years.
Standalone houses have more than held their value and you will find in the future that they will continue to increase.
The median showing for ChCh will not buy you an average standalone home in Christchurch.
You do sound very heavily leveraged third Man.
Hope you find a way to delever soon, as this Crashing Market Is just halfway done.
All others, should lòok to offer only in the 2012 to 2015 price range, when buying.
Reality is that my equity is 85%
On paper...you need a printer to update it down daily
Great, your equity ratio must be increasing with property price on the downward trend..
What a silly comment about paying 2015 prices!
Not really. I bought in Akl a few months ago at 2015 CV, well below 2015 prices after adjusting for inflation.
Congrats
Your first mistake is assuming the CV is related to value or market value or sales prices at Any point in time. It is simply a rating instrument nothing more. You got scammed & massively overpaid compared to 2015 prices. the 2015 CVs were knowingly borked and hilariously well over market values by over 300k even for average properties.
He is delusional and the only thing that makes him happy is trying to bring others down
Can you please point me in the direction of vendors who will accept 2012-2015 prices. I'm interested...
Just look at the sales v CVs on this site in the property section/ residential sales.
There are plenty of examples.
And many more mortgagee sales too.
Some are eye poppingly incredible.
Your first mistake is assuming the CV is related to value or market value at Any point in time. It is simply a rating instrument nothing more. It has as much link to a property & market value as the council rubbish collection. There is a tenuous connection that if a property does not have council rubbish collection it is far out & more rural perhaps of less value but equally they could be a high value property across an estate with its own waste management services.
It's still quite rare however I did see one yesterday on a flyer that got dropped in my mailbox where a two bedroom unit in One Tree Hill, Auckland, sold for less than its 2017 RV. The vendor took a 100K+ hit on what they paid for it in 2017 although they did pay about 10% more than the RV.
Here's a small sample of the last five days.
Some are hugely discounted
8 Capitol Road, Matakatia 880k under
18 Atkinson Avenue, Otahuhu 490k under
16 Harrow Place, Manurewa 200k under
235 Maunu Road, Horahora. 180k under Mortgagee sale
30 Carnell Place, Mangawhai 340k under
But.. in areas like the Kapiti coast, where the Wgtn city rich Public servants retire to, the prices are holding due to low stock and high demand.... Especially Waikanae beach.
Yet, one tree point, tikipunga, Kamo, Ruakaka in Whangarei are falling due to oversupply of new build's and the KO housing influx and the " lovely wholesome" tenants they bring.
Barrett homes sold out many Tikipnga/ Kamo properties to KO ( as they couldn't sell their existing stock ) and the locals are very angry as the car wreck pile up, crime increase and everyday life is under threat from said wholesome individuals...
..and thus why the peeps are selling up and the prices are falling.
This is a shocker ..
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/northern-advocate/news/homeowners-in-fear-af…
Barrett homes have new developments in Ruakaka and OTP ( the Moorings) that are complete flops and 95 % unsold ( 2 years). These will probably be flicked to KO and boom another quite neighborhood ruined.
We have to be a bit careful with some of these examples. For example 8 Capitol Road sold for 751K in August 2020 and the 2021 RV was 1.3M so it has always sold well below RV. Harrow place did sell for near its RV in earlier years though. Mortgagee sales are somewhat atypical. Looks like Carnell Place was the first time it's been sold since it was built.
I wonder how Maunu (whg) is getting on after parking same next to a great residential area?
Yet more evidence of how you don't know what a CV RV is and how they are calculated. Here is a tip it does not relate to the market value for Any property so the above numbers are junk from junk. Buying or basing any market health on CV comparisons is about as useful as using cloud patterns.
The council will rate an envelope with toxic asbestos on a landslip site for over a million if it was in a high rated area.
Wow!!!! Half price sale... According to Council Valuation.
Any body that buys at post 2020 valuation is getting a bad deal*
COVID craziness has really distorted the market. That CV will have to halve next time it's reviewed
*- especially in areas of over supply and low demand.
Yet more evidence of how you don't know what a CV RV is and how they are calculated. Here is a tip it does not relate to the market value for Any property so the above numbers are junk from junk. Buying or basing any market health on CV comparisons is about as useful as using cloud patterns.
some are just pessimistic views on house prices, while NZGecko just lives on another planet.
You sound like a disgruntled renter
So by adding more supply, irrespective of what form that supply takes, you are saying prices will not be impacted?
Because the assumption is that demand is also increasing, due to lower interest rates.
Yes demand, where people think it is their right and obligation to own more homes than they need to live in - while simultaneously pushing the overall price of housing up and causing an affordability problem for FHBs.
Perhaps should regulate that investors can only purchase new builds, thereby increasing supply and avoiding competition with FHBs. (an extreme measure, but we have been living in extreme times).
This is exactly what should be happening. Investors buying existing homes is never going to end well. It's created the largest ever housing bubble collapse in NZ history (and it's not over yet).
A law should be introduced that investors can only buy houses that are less than 12 months old, or existing homes that must be demolished or removed from the land within 3 months from the date of purchase, in order for higher density homes to be built.
A CGT of 40% *no exceptions* should also apply to any dwelling/land that is not the primary dwelling.
Trusts and companies owning residential properties should also be fully reviewed.
In most countries, people buying rental properties have to pay commercial interest rates. Not so in NZ.
Why is this? Could it be all buyers - both 'investors' and OOs - are paying a blended rate, i.e. where commercial rates and OO rates are mixed together?
Golly! Think about it. Are OOs actually subsidizing 'investors'?
At this point who isn't subsidizing landlords?
Govt subsidy? Yes.
Lower rate subsidy? Yes.
Higher rental price demand due to govt subsidy? Yes.
What a fun way to run an economy.
Anyway, all is well that ends well. This won't end well, and therefore is not well.
All good ideas - but if you owned a bucketful of houses would you be in favour of that? So I cannot see the current government addressing those issues - although Bishop appears motivated.
Demand will increase by investors. But it will also increase by FHBs and upgraders.
Our country doesn’t need demand from investors for existing dwellings. And if there is increased demand/buying action from FHBs, then they are probably buying while leaving a rental and thus increasing the supply of available rentals after they purchase their own home.
I can say, only anecdotally of course, that all the aspiring FHB that I know are/were living in 2 - 3 bedroom houses to themselves. They weren't flatting.
So yes, the only real change to housing supply when they buy is whose name is on the title. Their landlords were providing housing while other landlords furiously outbid them using paper deposits and interest only mortgages to make the numbers stack up.
This is wild!
You do realise it's exactly what the previous govt did by way of limiting interest deductibility to new builds only. This created an incentive for investors to create new rental stock and relieve the pressure on FHBs over yhe long term.
The neocon tories have reversed this and home occupiers are competing with investors over old housing stock again.
Yes I suggested that policy on here (somewhat wishfully only) and oddly it became a reality about 6 months later. Perhaps some people in influential positions read these comments sections. (Not claiming I was the causes of the policy but I did laugh out loud when reading the government policy months after suggesting it on here).
$910K can get you a nice 3 bedroom house in Tauranga. Seen one nice new build go in the high $800's. Its the time to be actively looking to buy, there is the occasional bargain to be had.
Only $4800/month for a young family with 20% down. Be quick.
Plus easily $500/month for rates, water charges..What a time to be living!
It almost sounds like you think this is a bargain lol.
TGA has a lot of vapour paper to shed yet…..
Based upon our incomes, $910k should buy you an absolute mansion ie only afforded by the very well off.
The NZ property market needs an almighty correction, as do other property markets around the world.
It’ll hurt real bad, but long term if we want a viable society where young people can realistically afford to have kids and aspire to join the middle class, then prices must further drop.
If prices rise again faster than wages and productivity, then you’re looking at a two-tiered society where the rich accumulate ordinary people’s assets (including houses) and the poor dream of greener pastures.
As it stands today, I’d like for someone who is pro-property-prices-to-the-moon to point out to me how skyrocketing property prices benefit society in the long run, rather than their own bank account.
The house to the moon bunch, are just all about themselves and Selfish Financial Interest home accumulators.
Great to see the homes prices continue to see new lows and the bottom is most likely in 2026/2027. Good times to live, own a home and party in the future.
When the downturn started in 2022, I picked 2027 for the bottom for house prices based on similar falls in other markets. This may prove optimistic based on the market signals for the upcoming recession. Tomorrow will not be the same as yesterday.
I don't believe any of the houses-to-the-moon types will make that argument. Mostly because they don't care.
It's almost a Calvinist pseudo-religious set of beliefs that it's their god given right to extract rent from society and if other people lose then that's how it's meant to be. The fact that advantages and disadvantages multiply across generations doesn't fit into the "hard-workism" dogma.
It's heartening to see people discussing the growing wealth inequality on here though. Hopefully the younger generations can steer the ship towards something better.
"The NZ property market needs an almighty correction, as do other property markets around the world."
1) Hong Kong at 8 year lows - https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3276182/hong-kongs-july-used-home…
https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3274335/chinese-developer-agiles-…
2) Seeing properties in China being sold at 60 -70% price falls
https://youtu.be/7GoroDrPwYE?t=287
this what happens when you regulate a housing market It could happen here Netherlands Rent Controls Deepen Housing Crisis - Bloomberg
Housing market is already screwed here, which world are you living in?
the real world maybe you should
You meant to convey a message?
Yet wages in NL are higher and house prices are lower than here. Which market is more f#cked?
Because they're mostly apartments/units
Homes for sale Nederland - Houses for sale in Nederland [funda]
Currently for sale:
- 42,779 houses
- 26,181 apartments
Those apartments are also well located near excellent public transport and cycling facilities. Something NZ could learn from.
Yes, there's nothing wrong with apartments. I was just pointing out that it's difficult to compare median prices when the size of accommodation is different in different markets.
Price per square meter is somewhat comparable at a national level:
https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_countries_result.jsp?coun…
But not if you want to live in a central city area:
https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Nethe…
I would like to buy in Amsterdam but it's crazy expensive for somewhere to live. The dutch have higher wages through better education & big companies such as ASML bringing in billions into the country. They work hard there thus have good lives. Also, positive people, NZ'ers are so negative. (which wasn't always so)
The Dutch have generational wealth still floating around from their previous empire which they can still leverage off of. They have a fantastic health system and a much more liberal attitude to many things, open minded and statistically less than half the obesity, otherwise interpreted as more than twice as healthy on average than Adult NZ Men and Women:
Obesity Prevalence:
NZ Men: 32.99% or 31st most obese country for adult men
NZ Women: 35.55% or 60th most obese country for adult women
Netherlands Men: 14.92% or 129th most obese country for adult men
Netherlands Women: 14.92% or 159th most obese country for adult women
It's down to all those apartments which means people walk more, and the cycle lanes which means people cycle more and the dense urhan centres which means people are closer to each other with better access to services and friends
The coalition and their backers want us to be depressed fat fuckers locked away in suburbia, sat on our arses comfort eating and smoking and only ever leaving the house encased in a 1.5 ton truck.
This Government Definitely doesn't care about health. I think they consider it 'a-nice-to-have' and want to privatise it all. Absolute stupidity.
That article is awash with drivel.
You can read my analysis here: https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129573/us-data-largely-positive-alth…
Hi Greg
Do you know why these reports have changed from 'average' to 'median'?The last 'average' report was June.Any chance you could post the average for more accurate comparisons over time?
Corelogic did an overall of their metrics last month
Good morning Brunhilde,
CoreLogic's Index is more than just a move from an average to a median. They have changed the way the Index is calculated. Technically it is a hedonic Index now. This should give more accurate data over time, particularly when measuring changes in values. The average figures are no longer available.
Cheers, Greg
Aka much more representative of the truth than spec town looking in the mirror trying to convince themselves it is not real.
Clearly there are tweaks required to modernise the numbers.
Clearly there are tweaks required to modernise the numbers.
Modernise them in such a way that it always shows they're rising?
Down down down continues in ponzi town. All the while Council rates go mental in some areas, and job layoffs continue all over the place.
Aucklanders are going to sh!t their pants when they receive their rates in a couple of months
And then any cost increases like that will then flow on to renters to pay. Home owners and renters are tied together, whatever happens to one happens to the other.
Doesn't work like that - heard of blood outta stone?
Renter cant pay more
So landlords cant pay mortgage
So rental gets sold at much lower price
New landlord can rent it without the necessary rental increase.
Needs to happen..
Renters can always pay more mate, was at one point paying 80% of my take home pay on the mortgage, you guys are not even close. Try living on a single income.
Capitalism at its best!
It's like if you can't stand poor people around you, move to a wealthier area!..
You chose to pay 80% of your wages on a mortgage. You suggest often that FHBs should get a flatmate/s, you could have done that also.
I did have a flatmate also or else there was no money for food and bills. Life is about compromise if you want to get somewhere up the property ladder. Compromise is much easier when you are in your 20's and 30's after that the typical flatmate drives you nuts. When you end up with a flatmate who is in his 40's you get to see why he is still flatting, usually a lifetime of making shit decisions.
No your life is about compromise and some fairly stupid ones by the sounds of it.
You’re a bag holder, don’t try and drag everyone else with you…
There appears to be a mistake in the data Greg. Rodney District shows a 0.8% fall for the month, a 4.5% quarterly fall and 2.1% annual fall.
I have it on good authority from boots on the ground that Rodney District, a highly affluent area, is actually increasing in value. Our resident commentator wingman can provide further insight.
Perhaps properties in Rodney are not as gold plated as some would have us believe Nzdan.
Nzdan forgot to end his statement with a wink-wink
Poe’s Law is a popular adage that says satirical expressions of extremism online are hard to distinguish from genuine ones without indicating intent.
A turd emoji always clears that up XD
Lots of green in the Annual change HVI
Yes John, most regions and cities outside of Auckland have risen in median house price over the past twelve months. But that wouldn't be a headline that fits the narrative of many here.
Alas, where Auckland leads, others will follow.
The housing market is on a slippery slope downhill..
-rates just higher
-unemployment rising
-migration reversing
-rentals sitting on the market for a couple of months
-more supply than demand
-stress levels rising
Interest rates dropping like a stone
Unemployment rising at a lower rate than expected
Net migration into NZ
Rentals 99% occupied in many areas
Stress levels rising in about 1% of those with mortgages
Wow a 6 month downward trend! But I was told by the commentators on here the green shoots were coming? I'll just wait until there is a 6 month upwards trend before bothering to listen. In the meantime I’ll go back to some light reading:
https://www.amazon.com.au/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640
Some further reading for you New Study Of Old Real Estate Bubbles (1582-1810) Finds Two Surprising Similarities With Modern Booms (forbes.com)
The study found significant price momentum effects, that is, that higher prices, in and of themselves, can cause additional higher prices.
This applies in reverse too.....
@Greeneggsandham
There is a 6-12 month upward trend in the regions outside of Auckland and Tauranga.
Whats your problem with the phrase "green shoots"?
I am still looking for those green shoots, and that rock star ..!
He smoked all the green hopium shoots and is subdued for a few more years before starting to rise again. That rockstar lifestyle really did a number on him, but rumour has it he is looking for more booze in an attempt for hair of the dog.
Green shoots everywhere mate, if you look in areas other than Auckland .
Please read the above chart!
Green shoots everywhere mate, if you look in areas other than Auckland.
Correct, areas outside New Zealand.
Please read the chart in this Interest article.
20 areas up in the past 1 month
30 or more ares up over the past year
All in New Zealand
As of July 134 billion of mortgage debt was fixed for 6 months or less. So by Christmas if refix rate has dropped by 0.5% then 670 million of annual interest cost will be gone and that spending power will have been released into the economy over that time. If the drop is 1% then 1.34 billion. Does it get saved or spent? Or recommitted to new debt?
Another 100 billion fixed at 1 year based on 1% drop. Will release a further 1 billion by mid next year.
How likely is it that after a period of 'perceived' higher interest rates, that people will revert to previous behaviour. I'd like to think it will have been sufficient time to temper spending habits due to uncertainty and more will pay the mortgage down faster to reduce overall debt that go out and load another boat onto the mortgage or buy up their local bars and restaurants.
I think the money - if it eventuates will be accepted with a sigh of relief and a committment to stay out of property ponzis. That effect will continue for a long time. Look what happened to shares in the 80s
I really find it hard to see how we'll recover from this quickly. Here's a very interesting article about the 70s crash: https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2016/07/11/remember-the-last-time-ho…
I was born in the late 90s so all I know is up only. The more I look into things the more it becomes obvious that buying right now may not be the best idea.
"so all I know is up only"
Almost everyone in NZ, which led many buyers to believe that residential real estate was a no risk investment / purchase. So they purchase residential real estate with high amounts of debt.
This is what happens when people haven't experienced a large price fall firsthand, they believe it can't happen.
House prices fell 10% during the GFC and recovered in 5 years. Many property investors think this will repeat.
It's a good article, MM.
Those that think house prices are going to rocket away with falling interest rates MUST read it.
Hopefully they'll temper their views once they realize the same factors that set off that fall are almost EXACTLY the same as we have now ... Even if they can't - or won't - see them.
People still sitting on the sidelines with $$$...
Households plunged an extra $2 billion into term deposits in July as they sought to take advantage of high interest rates ahead of anticipated reductions in the rates
It raises the obvious question of where money will be re-directed if its not going into bank deposits. We will be watching this space.
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/129512/households-plunged-e…
Question: How much of this is savings that retired people utilise and what appetite do you think they have to buy property as an investment?
Sure some will buy an investment, some may gift money to family which could roll into the property market but surely most will just suck it up and carry on.
Yip those that I know who have large piles of cash on the sidelines (eg $500k +) are those 65+ who don’t seem to have any interest in rental properties - ie they want a stress free retirement without having to deal with the difficulties that can arrive from dealing bad tenants and property maintenance etc.
Im not sure if falling rates will change this perspective or not - but if rates do fall a lon way then I think our housing market could also fall a long way (as a reflection of just how bad the economy/employment has become).
Clearly some aren't struggling at the moment...
Yip those that I know who have large piles of cash on the sidelines (eg $500k +) are those 65+
Yes they were born 65+ year ago and purchased first homes many decades ago at 3x household incomes then experienced decades of falling interest rates and a 20x return in the purchase price of their first home.
Amazing investment...
Almost as if by design.
I believe someone provided the answer a while back.
With no gains in productivity the decision was made to pump cash instead. As housing is NZ biggest asset, this was the way to pump that cash - increased cash to flow via the increased borrowing..
And that cash gets chucked into the economy and works.....for a while.
A while is over. It was a can kicking exercise.
Yes us boomers have been very fortunate. Cheap assets, small loans needed to buy them and lots of inflation once bought and held. My current home bought with a $100k loan valued at close to $3m. Any boomer who says they had it harder than those starting out today is out of touch with reality. That’s why I am helping my kids before I kick the proverbial.
Not really they just purchased a family home to live in with no knowledge of investing - many that I deal with still have zero financial knowledge but got lucky that their leveraged investment from 30+ years ago has gone up 20x purchase price. They don’t understand investing at all but have been rewarded handsomely in their ignorance of the topic.
The benefit of being born at the right time just post WW2.
"a 20x return in the purchase price of their first home. "
The key question is: will the owner occupier buyers of today get the same return?
Well that would require the current average FHB purchase of say $700k to be worth $14mill at the point of their retirement in 30 or so years.
The maths doesn’t stack up at all because it would require extremely high income inflation but if that happens interest rates would become extremely high which would prevent high asset inflation.
It has largely been the drop in interest rates from 20% to 2% that has allowed our house prices to rise in the manner which they did from the 1980s - 2020. To expect another 20x return over the next 4 decades I can’t fathom given that we are starting from 2% interest rates at the recent peak.
"To expect another 20x return over the next 4 decades"
FYI, a 20x over 40 years is house price growth of 7.78% p.a.
The previously commonly repeated house prices doubling every 10 years by property investors is 7.2% p.a.
Here are the current house price growth assumptions used by property investors:
https://youtu.be/VC9AQtctfxE?t=764
Yes income inflation over the period hasn’t been 7.5% so the only factor that allowed house prices to rise at a level well above the general rate of inflation was lower and lower discount rates/mortgage rates.
And if we have 7% income inflation over the next decade, the RBNZ are going to be in a real tangle over general inflation in the economy.
Another impact was loan terms being increased from 15 to 30 years, increasing ability to borrow. Could see a 40 year loan term not being too far off...
Could do - but might be risky from the banks perspective now that the average FHB is in mid-30’s so might be mid-70’s still working to pay off debt!
You'll get diminishing returns the longer you push the loan out.
At 5% averaged interest rates and $1m home ($200k deposit), pushing a 30 year mortgage out to 40 years increases borrowing power by 12.5% based on the same weekly payment (10% increase in purchasing power; $1.1m home), but pushes the total cost up by ~25% once all principal and interest is paid.
So we're just getting less and less for our money as time goes on.
The question should not be "how on earth do we keep the money coming in for home loans!?" and should definitely be, "how do we redirect the economy away from old housing stock?"
Sometimes I wish there was a professional body with real sharp and large teeth to deal with economic nonsense spouted by people who call themselves 'economists'.
Case in point?
"We’re about 15 months into this phase, so it’s reasonable to expect another six to nine months of unevenness before there is a steady rise in prices."
Source: See "3. Are house prices rising or falling?"
OneRoof: Four pressing questions for anyone thinking of buying a house right now
Sorry, Mr McKnight, it is NOT reasonable to expect anything of the sort. Further, the price rises you are suggesting are nonsensical unless wages increase at a similar rate.
Remember the vested financial interests involved.
Recessions in NZ normally last about 18 months to 2 years max, so I'd say McKnight is quite correct.
With respect, I can see why so many on here don’t own property!
Talks of prices dropping to 2015 prices is just delusional
Chch prices haven’t dropped at all and yet many are talking about prices halving etc?
As I say house prices in NZ are actually more than reasonable compared to Europe!
Yes we have gone through a tough time for the last couple of years due to the last governments mishandling!
However the new National government are slowly improving things.
Some of the main centres are overpriced, its begging to show with the falls. Things changed post Covid, the desirable regions will hold their prices. Auckland is going to take a hit, the infrastructure now is buggered, you just cannot keep adding people up there its going to take a dive. Wellington will be fun with the next quake, chances are there will be no water when you turn on the tap even without a shake.
Completely disagree. Thats about were debt costs "stackup" to the rental income. Banks and clipper funded media are on full brainwash media spin cycle to stop the sheeple waking up to this reality. Meanwhile inflation still under sail.
Money were mouth is. How many houses did you punt on in the last three months....?
I went to the Home Show in Auckland yesterday. I was assured by one poster here (NZ Gecko) that I'd probably be there on my own. I arrived at exactly 10 when the show opened, and left at 1215.
When I departed, the main carpark was chokka and attendees were required to park in nearby streets. And that was a week day - imagination what it's going to be like tomorrow and Sunday.
On my way home I noticed 2 cranes at Pt. Chev, and when I got to Westgate there were 2 cranes there. New shops had opened, and on arrival at the asian supermarket the car park was full so I gave up and came home.
There were also a couple of acres of structural steel being erected.
A traffic jam backed up to the intersection of Brigham Creek Road as a new industrial subdivision and road-widening gets underway.
What happened to Great Depression 2? Maybe where you are.
My area the north shore is down -1.5% this year after everything that’s been thrown at it. Whoop dee doo.
.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.