Barfoot & Thompson's average and median selling prices continued to slide in August although sales volumes were average for the time of year.
Auckland's largest real estate agency sold 889 residential properties in August, barely changed form the 902 it sold in July, and the 879 it sold in August last year.
However prices continued to weaken.
The agency's average selling price was $1,107,837 in August, down $19,802 from $1,127,639 in July.
The average selling price is now $119,658 lower than it was at its summer peak of $1,227.495 in March.
The median price also continued its downward run, and was down by $17,800 compared to July, and down by $97,500 from its summer peak of $1,050,000 in March.
New listings also declined in August, with 1454 properties being added to the agency's books, down from 1518 in July.
That was the lowest number of new listings received since January and was down by 8% compared to August last year.
That helped to push the total number of homes available for sale at the end of August down to 5162, which was also the lowest level of stock the agency has had available since January.
However stock levels were still elevated at the end of August and were up 24% compared to August last year.
It was also the first time since 2010 that stock levels have been above 5000 in the month of August, which means the amount of stock the agency has for sale is at a 14 year high for the time of year.
That suggests buyers will continue to have plenty to choose from as the market moves into spring and will continue to be in a strong negotiating position regarding price.
"All indications point to the subtle confidence we have seen return to the Auckland residential housing market in the past few months continuing to grow as we enter spring," Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said.
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56 Comments
Would be good to know what is actually selling, townhouses are killing the average price. The data is now too broad. Expect Auckland prices to fall further, they are simply not building that sort of stuff down here in volume.
Do you think Auckland's median currently sits lower than August 2023 Zwifter?
I seem to remember you both agreed to the REINZ HPI as the standard. In which case prices in Auckland are up 0.4% since August 2023.
If you we were to go by the median price, Auckland house prices are up 1.7% since August 2023.
HPI is the gold standard. Either way, you haven't answered the question "Do you think Auckland's median currently sits lower than August 2023?"
The REINZ report for August has not been released yet.
Well seeing as the median price was up 1.7% 3 days ago I am going to stick my neck out and say that currently it is still higher than August 2023.
Auckland HPI is down 2.4% for the year
"Year-on-year, the HPI indicates that housing market value nationwide has risen 0.2%, down in Auckland by 2.4% and increasing outside Auckland by 1.5%."
Auckland could be even further down when the August HPI is released.
'Thanks for the correction Time Lord. I had been looking at the June report in error.
What are numbers are you comparing there Baptist? The ones in the Barfoots release or some other?
RP cannot let it go.
Let what go Zwifter?
Who will pick the beginning of the next market upswing?
Quite possibly, we'll know before too much longer........
The salient signs of returning confidence are looming. 😜
TTP
Who will pick the beginning of the next market upswing?
Personally, I think Spring of 2025 but it will be more the appearance of a sustainable floor than an upswing. I think any sustainable upswing in prices won't be apparent till Spring 2026.
Your turn...
I think any sustainable upswing in prices won't be apparent till Spring 2026. [Retired-Poppy - above]
The spurious illusion of precision.
Given Retired-Poppy's atrocious track-record of forecasting, one would think/hope he'd refrain from sticking his neck out and shooting his mouth off.
TTP
....but you just invited me and others to make a prediction.
Who will pick the beginning of the next market upswing?
What's your prediction Tim?
Rising before the end of the year
Query another TTP account....?
Retire poppy
Personally, I think Spring of 2025 but it will be more the appearance of a sustainable floor than an upswing. I think any sustainable upswing in prices won't be apparent till Spring 2026.
Saveashouses
Interest rates 5.5 for a year in March 2025 - property on their was to recovery 7% growth for 2025 (good prediction by BNZ). It is my prediction? Now that there is pen on paper please feel free to dig up and post again in 2025.
Two reason why this might happen -
Turbo charging immigration or inflation.
Could happen as the insane still rule.
Otherwise we are still looking for the bottom.
I reckon the critical measurement is the amount of stock held for sale by agents..... Still high...
Anecdotally townhouses also aren't selling well, but would need more of a deep dive on their stats to know for sure.
Also, a deep dive on their development costs vis a vis current market prices would also be interesting.
The housing market has changed so much over the last 10 years, using old generic metrics no longer works. There certainly could be a glut of townhouses selling cheap before Christmas if more developers go bust. Probably quite a mission to break down all the data and provide something brief so you know how your particular building is faring in the market. Not sure you can even rely of the data being collected as accurate anyway, the council down here cannot even seem to be able to count the number of bedrooms.
Everybody keeps telling you the HPI factors these things in.
Well I just downloaded the report and no it doesn't factor it in. How can it with no breakdown by property types. So outside Auckland prices are up 1.5%. That single number is pretty useless you need breakdown by region and housing type in tables, which if that exists you have to pay for it anyway. You are better off just looking at homes and what the similar house down the road actually just sold for.
Anecdotally townhouses also aren't selling well
Can't imagine why, when you've got deals like this on offer: https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/residential/sale/wellington/kapiti-coast/paraparaumu-beach/listing/4897503368
Looks like it's already built, but the main external picture is a render ?
Unsure why, other listings have had the actual external photos, eg:
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/property/wellington/paraparaumu-beach/7-384-k…
Expect Auckland prices to fall further
You already called the bottom being way earlier. Is that egg on your face we see or do you simply enjoy flip flops?
"All indications point to the subtle confidence we have seen return to the Auckland residential housing market in the past few months continuing to grow as we enter spring,"
Moron.
Straight from the Turd Polishing Manual. For starters, one indicator that doesn't point to increased confidence to purchase is the fast rising jobless rate.
Subtle confidence
It's like they've been reading wine tasting manuals.
with hints of earthy hope and notes of desperate optimism , layered between crushing tones of reality.
A heavy drink best paired with wild game, best consumed now as this will not age well.
"Every winter has its spring!"
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-03/new-zealand-interest-rates-drop-…
Helping TTP for a head start.
From someone who is active in the market, mortgage brokers have reported a real increase in volumes, and well presented properties are selling a lot quicker. Have a look on the first home buyers page on FB, already a number of stories about them missing out due to competition and the speed of places selling has def increased. Take not of stock slowly dropping too. Agents have reported increased activity too. Rates only going way, down.
Before some DGMs get triggered, I’m not implying anything else other than what’s listed above. Some real evidence below -
FB post 1
The disappointment and shuttered feeling.
When you are set on a house but your offer is to low or your compenting against so many other people. How do you get past this or make yourself stand out.
How do you buy a home you love when so much others do
FB post 2
Hi everyone,
I’m feeling quite discouraged. We have a pre-approval from the bank for $1 million, but we’re struggling to find an affordable 3-bedroom plus office in West Auckland. Everything we’ve looked at is either in poor condition or gets sold so quickly that we don’t even have a chance to make an offer. Often, if the house is good, the vendor tends to overprice it, making it as expensive as a five or even six-bedroom home. It feels like $1 million is nothing when it comes to buying your first house.
Is it just me, or are others also struggling? The house search has taken a horrible toll on our family, and I’m really upset. I’m not sure if we’ll be able to find anything decent in Auckland. ☹ I would appreciate any comments or advice from the members.
How do you reconcile the Barefoot numbers Mr Ice, they do not show any pickup at all...
Maybe all the pickup is via the rest of the agencies?
-10% Dec 2023 to Dec 2024
Hey IT guy, you realise that Barfoot is not the only agency in the country right??
This is an article about Barfoot and Thompson, who have about 40% market share.
And? Last time I checked, circa 40% was not a majority standing.
I suppose your wild anecdotes are a majority standing?
No Dumbledorf, just contesting what you said.
Relax mate. There’s plenty of you who just sit comfy in your arm chairs and get excited over every article headline without having any real world experience. I’ve just pointed out some evidence, to go along with my own from actively attending open homes etc.
Aka, not just a keyboard warrior.
A lot to be said about somebody who comes on here e-thugging and then telling everybody else to relax. Thinly veiled insecurities.
A lot to be said about keyboard warriors who actually seem to know nothing about the real world that run their mouth unabated then take exception when someone challenges them.
Ah the old Uno Reverso. You could've just said "I know you are but what am I".
Barfoots do approx 40% of all Auckland sales so their monthly data gives the first reliable indicator on the market for each preceeding month
And you must be………a Barfoot Agent.
PS - Auckland is not also NZ.
No. Barfoots is a big sample size in Awkland though. And as soruik land quoted many time, Awkland leads the way, it just takes time to filter thru.
Iceman, has always been a heavy user of copium. No idea why. Rising prices in the current climate would mean more and more highly skilled young kiwis going across the ditch.
@ Peter Thompson: Spat my morning tea, funnier than Bob Mortimer.
Clark and Dawe stuff...
Be interesting to see how REINZ August data looks when it comes out around the 15th of September.
REINZ data for July said: “The biggest monthly drop in Auckland was in its central suburbs, which includes suburbs such as Herne Bay, Ponsonby, Grey Lynn, the CBD, Parnell, St Heliers, Epsom and Remuera, where the median price declined by $182,000 between June and July, dropping from $1,250,000 in June to $1,068,000 in July (-14.6%).”
At Barfoots central auctions last Wednesday 7 sold out of 22 - 31.8% sell rate still very low!
And most of the sales are happing at the low-mid market $$$$ ie for AKL below 1.3mil
Spruiker here -the tide is turning - for 4 years its been tough for anyone having a mortgage. Business confidence is through the roof, unemployment is bad - agreed - does it mean if business confidence is back - potentially unemployment might improve? It is possible we can have a sub 5% rate by December. I think that is good enough for those in the market to jump. lets see...... lets have the comments
Perhaps, but is the underlying patient actually recovered, or just been re-medicated on cheaper debt and now feeling methed up again. My 5c is the latter. Ticket clippers and capital gain chasers will all be "all in" for sideline buyers to jump in and take on the large waiting debt burdens. Oh...and pay all the transaction fees.
So, is the economy sorted again and in balance with asset prices...yeah nah.
- I would agree at the moment there is no returns / capital gains to be honest it is damn hard. as a whole - for me property as a tool did work - if it will work for the future ( I think it might) is to be seen. However I am in the game if there is an upswing in property prices - downswing in interest rates to 5% live is going to be good. Both options might come true if they do I am a good spruiker if they dontt well I am not sure will have to sell.
That anz survey does not hold water, that spike is a prozac filled 3 day bender. There is pain a plenty in SME land.
Plenty of restructuring talk happening in my network - read redundancies. Plenty of debtor defaults.
Thank for being clear on which side of the divide you're on, SaHs.
Perhaps you'd like to address my assertion that the changes to zoning rules allowing far greater dwelling densities throughout the country will insure capital are going to be minimal for 20-30 years. Or put another way, the artificial constraints on dwelling supply by Councils that drove the huge capital gains since the 80s are now gone meaning supply will increase and capital gains - driven by scarcity - will evaporate.
I look forward to how you claim this won't happen as no one here has successfully challenged this assertion. (And one notes the spruikers in MSM almost never even mention it.)
Central Auckland average up 30% 🥂 happy days In the leafy suburbs!
it pays to read the actual reports, not just the 'misery spin' applied by some🌞😄
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