The latest figures from Trade Me Property paint a pretty grim picture of the current housing market, with average asking prices tumbling and the number of listings on the site climbing to a 10-year high.
The average asking price on the website is now $50,000 lower than at the beginning of 2024, pushing it down to its lowest level in three years.
At the same time, listings on the website have been rising, hitting a 10-year high of 42,440 back in May.
In the 12 months to July, listings with asking prices under $1 million were up 27% compared to the previous 12 months, and properties priced in the popular $600,000 to $799,000 range were up 29%.
Trade Me says properties are also staying listed on the website for longer, with the median days to sell on the site rising to 75 in July from 73 in June.
"All of this adds up to more choice for buyers and more competition for sellers, putting downward pressure on prices," Trade Me Property Customer Director Gavin Lloyd said.
"Buyers are taking more time to make decisions and have more negotiating power on price," he said.
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54 Comments
Grim? Why?
Hat trick of RE data against Spruikers today
I have to hand it to those old spookers, they have a never die attitude.
Would love to see the "Crash Graph" updated to show the Ireland crash vs the NZ crash (adjusted for inflation).
Yes any update pls??
We can beat Ireland !
According to REINZ HPI report December 2021, the National HPI was 4235. June 2024 it's 3573. So that's about 16% down in 30 months.
Puts our HPI slightly above the blue line for US 2007 at the 30 month mark on that Reddit chart.
Auckland on the other hand, 4176 down to 3330 is 20% down. That's aligned with US 2007.
I've been running updates, but following auckland city HPI (REINZ) - not inflation adjusted
Good work thanks
Adjusted for the rampant inflation/monetary losses, since the late 2021 peak, NZs major city losses would be at or bigger than Ireland.
Yep, comparing a low to zero inflation period to a high inflation period is pretty misleading.
Once it's all in the rear vision and recovery ensues, the word "crash" will slide of many a Spruikers tongue too.
The question is if people want to sell or if they want the situation on their hands watching the prices decline.
One wonders whether it is high interest rates (and recessionary times) alone that is driving the fall and the number of listings.
One wonders whether the effects of Council zoning policy changes since 2016 aren't also having an effect. In effect I'm wondering why so many are selling when high interest rates and recessions are transitory beasts and 'normal service' should (according to many) resume shortly.
Time will tell.
But IMO the writing is on the wall, writ large.
Highly likely it's more about job insecurity and the self reinforcement the good ol' days of double digit pa house price growth won't return soon enough for the heavily indebted. Then there's the skyrocketing rates and insurance in tow. In this environment, from an investment perspective, rental yields should be more like 8-10% to reflect the risk and cover holding costs not the current average of 5%.
Despite falls to date, house prices are still distorted.
no animal spirits = no cpaital gains
no capital gains = no ponzi
Interest rates alone do not cut it, you are either holding a bag increasing in value or you hold a bag falling like a stone
add leverage to flavour, use thick slices of bread to assemble sandwich in current market
the writing is on the wall, writ large.
So, what does the writing say?
"I'm wondering why so many are selling when high interest rates and recessions are transitory beasts"
But there aren't "so many selling", sales volumes are down !
Correct - so many Sellers are Dreamin
But the buyers are one step ahead of them and keep lowering there offers as sellers lower their ask
But there aren't "so many selling", sales volumes are down!
Yvil, the question is "why have so many made or seriously considering the decision to list given that recessions are historically transitory"
Aside from employment concerns, changes to Brightline could also be playing a part.
edit
Its because the Ponzi is over, but those Spruikers will not accept that as the reason, they are still hoping that the market will rise like a zombie in a 1970s horror movie.
Or maybe like a famous Parrot, the Ponzi is just resting.......
A continued fall in house prices (and associated rents) will be the biggest economic win in NZ for 40 years and will be a good outcome for the majority of New Zealanders -and I appreciate that there could be small number of recent buyers who might lose big time
It will help ease social pressures and might even change baked in thinking about investment options as well as putting lots of pressure on the underlying forces that drive new house prices up - land, rates and monopoly suppliers by way of example
A continued fall in house prices (and associated rents) will be the biggest economic win in NZ for 40 years and will be a good outcome for the majority of New Zealanders -and I appreciate that there could be small number of recent buyers who might lose big time
Or it could be the biggest economic disaster. My reckon is that your reckon is not based on any robust modelling or hypothesis. Don't take that is an insult.
Of course my reckon is also not based on modelling. It's based on a hypothesis that if the Ponzi crumbles, it will affect the whole economy, particularly the consumptive parts of the economy that drive SMEs and retail - a symbiotic relationship with the Ponzi. So as the 'real economy' gets worse, the feedback loop into house and land prices potentially reinforces the doom.
Too many Aotearoans are attached to the Goldilocks Principle without really thinking things through.
Best scenario is actually a decent drop then several years of stagnation of house prices (as opposed to a crash). With money and time driven into productive enterprises.
Guess how long would you call transitory…180 day, three years? I’m not sure this is transitory but at some point we will all agree that it would still be cyclical? Shit, if you’re under the pump financially then sell and try to remove the stress I guess…house price increases are what, 24 months away at least?
All markets are cyclical, but if you lived through the great depression it would have felt very end of worlds.....
Houses unlike shares have some intrinsic value as shelter, we are all just debating what multiplier of income that should be.
Fair call, hey I am sure that for some families living through this right now it will feel very end of worlds...but with regards to the repeated comments (not from yourself IT) about this being the end of all ends, I just don't believe it, it will be cyclical...but I am sure that is of no relief to those doing it tough right now.
As for what the multiplier of income should be...shouldn't it be 3-4X, what it will be...jeez, probably not that eh
I read this as "why are so many vendors selling", rather than "why so many houses selling". Listings are way up, volumes are way down. What could happen.
perhaps they are all just testing the market
Meanwhile in some places, like Auckland, (+2.7%) prices are ticking up.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350342825/regions-where-house-prices-a…
Who's getting ready for the next boom?
That was REINZ data for June wingnut
So it's one month and 13 days old Einstein?
You need to 'think' 12-18 months out, not months back.
Celebrating a month on month 2.7% increase in median prices (margin of error stuff in a noisy market) while ignoring the wider trend. Hell, that 2.7% increase could be solely down to homes at the bottom of the market not moving because the FHB Home Start Grant was removed in May. So the median moved up slightly.
"Meanwhile, in my shit sandwich, I found an olive"
Meanwhile, on a page not far from here...
"Average dwelling values in Auckland down an average of almost $9000 a month for the last six months, QV says"
Headline on The Australian today, which you won't see in NZ any time soon ...
Influx of property investors stabilises rental market
The country’s rental market is benefiting from more property investors looking to take advantage of price growth, but inbound migration levels will have a role to play in vacancy rates.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/proptrack-national-r…
inbound migration levels will have a role to play in vacancy rates
Rentals in NZ no longer can rely on this luxury. Following trends, come the end of October it's looking likely that our net migration will be sitting at <20,000 for the year. Could be as low as 0.
Loads of bearish comments.
The signal for contrarians to 'back the truck up'.
Fill your already soggy boots man!
Useful Connon fodder is really needed to step into the breach and take the incoming and unrelenting sellers flak.......
The ponzi spruikers championed by the Hosk, the Comb, and Chris "7 houses" Luxon will be crying in their beer or champagne.
Ouch, Auckland prices going backwards at -$300 per day!
More like $500/day.. rates, interest, insurance..
Would love to see the govt put a few billion into incentivizing one and two bedroom new builds.
Like the old granny flats from the 70's and 80's. All bog standard basic builds, the govt could easily create 10 designs/layouts that meet the nz building code and they could make them immune to local govt nimby meddling. Fully insulated, double glazed. 50yr+ lifespan cladding and roofing, low maintenance.
NZ needs way more smaller homes that are 60m2 to 90m2. Think single people, single retiree, retirees, young couples. Couples without kids.
hence the granny flat announcement
Yes - but I think the govt would be better off pumping $2 billion a year into new builds, which is less than is paid toward the accommodation supplement. I'm not sure why the Aroha/BeKind coalition didn't just do that. $100k per build for 20,000 builds. Something like this would have an actual lasting impact on NZ rather than the accommodation supplement which essentially just increases market rents, thereby increasing house values for investment.
Which is pretty much how much we need to be building each year for all the new migrants.
Because if you recall they rolled out Kiwibuild and had the funding to go behind it, but alas the building sector was already tapped out so it wasn't a net increase in dwellings just Kiwibuild stickers slapped on properties already planned to be built.
Definitely, warm and dry basic but healthy homes that are built well, proper eaves and low maintenance hard wearing material suitable to our NZ climate. Add some 120m2 three bedroom options for young families, rent to own opportunities to help people get a headstart. Bloody good to see someone discussing solutions mate, not just the routine sh*t flinging from the anti vs pro or pro vs anti property gangs!!
You mean like NZS 3604?
Essentially yes, but NZS 3604 has been around while we’ve let people build houses with monolithic cladding and no eaves.
Just well built basic homes, maximise the use of space, warm and dry, a goal of more affordable housing.
Yes same, good call. We have so many single 65plus in rural Northland who need this. We’ve got a couple useless (but flat n accessible) acres we tried to put 1 bedrooms on exactly for this, punitive council says no (read more $$ to apply than worth).
Recent Curia poll asked NZers how they would vote in US elections if they could.
Across all demographics NZers would vote for Harris over Trump. The only outliers who would vote Trump over Harris are:
- ACT voters
- NZFIRST voters
- Rural voters
Says it all, and why NZ citizens are leaving in droves. The coalition is trying it's hardest to appeal to a right-wing nut community and doesn't represent the views and desires of most NZers. Luxons sacrificed the National Party in his desperation to be PM at all costs and made a deal with the devil, worse National leader in living memory.
https://www.curia.co.nz/2024/08/us-2024-presidential-election-poll/
Gees you draw a lot of connections there man, why stop at right wing nut jobs? Why not throw in racist, anti-widget et.al. for good measure. Fixed it for ya!
Hot off the press.
BTW, when 3 of NZ's biggest companies are going to spend billions in Riverhead, you don't need to be a property research professor to figure out where the capital gains are going to be.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/08/14/this-year-might-be-a-good-time-to-bu…
THAR SHE BLOWS!!!
All hands on deck! Start leveraging those paper capital gains again, before they shrink too much.
You know its getting dire when real estate agents start to close offices.
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