Auction activity continues to bounce along the bottom, up slightly one week and down the next.
Activity was up slightly at the latest auctions, with 267 residential properties going under the hammer, up from 237 the previous week and 265 the week before that. So things are drifting along at a fairly low level, which is not surprising given the market is slow and it is well into winter.
The sales rate dropped back a bit with 95 properties selling under the hammer, giving an overall sales rate of 36%, down a tad from 40% the previous week. So it too appears to be bouncing along the bottom.
Although the market is subdued it is still following seasonal patterns. With spring not far off, auction numbers should start lifting again at some time in the next few weeks.
However the important figures to watch will be the sales rate because you can have all the properties in the world going to auction, but it's how many are sold that counts.
Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, including the selling prices of those that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.
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73 Comments
"you can have all the properties in the world going to auction, but it's how many are sold that counts"
Its that all important and sustainable floor that counts. With unemployment still rising and predicted to do so well into 2025, even with falling borrowing rates, signs still aren't encouraging that a floor is near. The last thing prospective vendors want is another dead cat bounce to further erode already fragile confidence.
So likely more rentals available then ,then I recalled how re-introducing interest deductibility (+800M cost) was going to put downward pressure on rents but a quick search reveals these comments "my advice to investors is to keep rents at the market rate and allow for a longer vacancy". "Don’t drop your rent just to get a tenant in"."Over the year, you’ll be better off". "But you might need to get through a few weeks without rent."" We aren’t seeing large decreases, Investors aren’t dropping their rents"."Now we’re in a more normal market. "So, if you got a rental appraisal back in January - August 2023, the rent may be lower today than what the rental appraisal says.It can be a drop of up to $100 a week." (opes 18.07.2024) However looking at their latest chart.... I see ZERO rent decreases . Are their any renters out there that can confirm the Govts interest deductibility has resulted in cheaper rent? .... if not and RE values are declining it would seem likely that renters are carrying possibly a heavier burden than ever before. Many are hoping the market will turn but if renters are being squeezed then probable that aspiring FHB's are not where they need to be .
https://www.opespartners.co.nz/rental-market
"Cost of landlord tax break increased by $800m to $2.9b"
By
Thomas Coughlan (NZH)
11 Mar, 2024 06:08 PM4 mins to read
Demand for new rentals is plummeting" - https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2024/06/nz-property-demand-f…
I'd suggest if this be true then rents will soon start falling hard and initially be more apparent in new rental statistics much slower in existing tenancies. For Speculords, being burdened with additional and unavoidable taxes and no pricing power in which to pass these on does not make this a fun venture. I think yields should be at least 9% to reflect the risk and costs. What are they currently, 5% average?
I see 2 different sets of stats 1 month apart and they dont look to be on the same page Wellington and BOP for example . Can anyone here say their rent has decreased?. My thoughts are that rents were driven up with the removal of deductibility and have stayed such with its re introduction and Kiwis in general would have been in a better space if nobody messed with the settings in the first place...lol
If it isn't the interest deductability then it must be the interest rate itself or could be the high council rates increases and if not those it will be the insurance bills driving the rental prices
Landlord lists of excuses are as long as the pole vaulters pole
So many folk undoubtedly want 'affordability' but if we consider the variables ....its not looking promising . Fact is affordability has likely turned from a pot hole into a sink hole and whilst many are pinning their hopes on a near negative OCR, failing infrastructure and crumbling other variables will drag any recovery for some time.
RP just rented this week a 3brm in Christchurch had several groups wanting it. Rent up by 95 dollars a week from 445 to 540 and still less than what the property manager recommended. Brought that house for 140k so a great return. Have a house in Taupo coming up for rent 4brm fully furnished usually rented to companies doing contracts for geothermal projects which are slowing down so will be interesting to see wether it is taken up. If we take furniture out not a problem and not as higher rental but would be rented very quickly cause of position
ATM all is quiet on the Western Front then✅
RP maybe all quiet burnt still making money and in the market so if and a big if market turns who will get the gold and who will whinge about how hard things are. Plenty of opportunities out there at the moment if you look outside the box new purchase in Waimate looking like will go uncon soon 90 percent. And the strange thing is a retail bank is taking up the mortgage (as you know I deal predominantly with 2nd tier) yet the retail banks a chasing the business even with age against me (over 50) most retail banks shy away. So yep all quiet ain't it great not having to compete with people who think they are the great property investors cause they made a few 100k on one or two houses. It is like any investment it's the long....... game that counts
So a 20% rise in the cost of rent for the same place then.
Now, of course, the base rate of $445 might have been what you've been asking, unchanged, ever since you bought the place in 2004 (highly unlikely if you have a property manager at 7% advising you. I mean, they get paid a % of what they can convince you to change)
Who says Inflation is dead....
Who says Inflation is dead....
On the eve of each OCR review the heavily indebted hope the RBNZ decides that it is. It's certainly been HFL.
There's an awful lot of ageing Debt out there. Debt consolidated over years of property buying that sees holdings with a net LVR of 75% and more. At each rise in property prices, the revaluation delivered more fire-power to add 'just one more' to the portfolio. And it's those that are most at risk.
All economic times are different to each other, but the one thing in common over history is the last gasp of Inflation overwhelming the productive economy, and when that happen, the cost of Debt soars and so the resale price of what collateral is backing that, often shares and property, collapses.
BW have had this property 6 yrs now by all accounts from some supposedly in the know I am holding on by my finger nails waiting for the brightline to be passed to quickly put the property on the market to scamper away licking my wounds breathing a sigh of relief that I dumped this property onto some gullible FHB and just glad I have paid the bank back. Well that's what alot think on here that property investors are just hanging in. I am not all the properties I rent out are rented at below market rent. All my properties are always full very really are they empty the last one the new build in Waimate took longer than I expected and I dropped the rent by 40 a week. So swings and roundabouts but that's the price of doing business. Got a great family in there enjoying a brand new home alls good
Fair enough. Just looked at your purchase price of $140k and related it to a property on Cranford Street; 1950's weatherboard way past it's use-by date that was surplus to our needs that was moved on for $138k in '04. Rent back then? $95 per week. Just imagine how much better off the country would be if your place was today getting the same $95 per week. What your tenants could be using the additional $450 per week for that they are having to spend on rent.
Notice people who make 200k a year a broke notice people making 70k a year saving. Of course the person on 200k a year has the flash house the flash Audi kids go to the flash school. When I was an apprentice a flatmate was a laborer at Glenbrook Steel Mill making 1000 a week I was making 13 a hour. Yet he partied all night every night had the new CBX 1100 motorbike get the picture. So if rents were still 95 a week people will still be broke whinging about how hard things are. Look at Aus apparently the streets a paved in gold yet the homelessness rate is the highest its ever been alot of people living on the poverty line alot buying lotto tickets/betting etc. Point being it don't matter what you earn or pay there will always be people making money and people who are struggling there is no eutopia always will be always has been. Until you have teachers (and I mean people with actual rungs on the ladder) who teach basic economics to our children then you will always have these problems
Fear not. (or maybe those are the wrong words!) We are about to get ourselves economically educated. A few advance lecture notes in Japanese were handed out this past week. And just like it took a generation and more to recover from the last lesson 100 years ago, it's going to hurt.
"Ut est rerum omnium magister usus."
The IMF lessons on how to restructure a ponzi economy….
Bought that house for 140k??? was that 20 years ago or something? Or is the house leasehold?
Mystery Google 14 Tanner St Woolston. Brought 6 yrs ago at 140k free standing 3brm home freehold. As is so you have to have cash no insurance
That's awesome. Don't know what the problem with it was to be listed "as is where is" but it looks like a great buy. Congrats Colin!
268 square meter section. He bought a car park with a 3 bedroom house on it.
Seems to have worked out, and no doubt he could fix anything needed building-wise himself to save costs.
What you think, Retired-Poppy, and what actually happens - are, notoriously, two different things. Your track-record here provides veritable evidence of your forecasting blunders.
If your predictions weren't so contaminated by your prophet-of-doom mentality, you might stand a chance of reducing the level of your catastrophes.
TTP
Oh really?
by tothepoint | 3rd Sep 21, 8:39pm - "NZ house prices are increasing - on a sustainable long-term trajectory"
vs
by Retired-Poppy | 1st Jul 23, 8:12am
Increased clearance rates is one thing, increased sales volumes together with rising prices is something else altogether. Then there's the all-important factor - sustainability.
Another massive and coordinated Spruiker push coming using fudged figures alongside a low volume dead cat bounce powered along by the naive is the best of it.
by Retired-Poppy | 31st Dec 23, 11:48am
House price falls by way of (HPI) measure will once again resume during April and be reported in early May. Aided by the restoration of Brightline to two years, rising unemployment, the continued intensification of financial stress and more financial nightmares reported in the media, sellers will feel more motivated and therefore realistic in their expectations and buyers ever more cautious.
Of course I've had some fails too, Haven't we all?
Absolutely, over the long-term house prices have a formidable track-record of increasing. The long term trajectory is upward and unlikely to change.
Major flaws with Retired-Poppy are that he doesn't acknowledge (or understand) property cycles - and he doesn't distinguish between the short-term and the long-term.
Further, he dismisses or ignores the importance of rental yield to property investment. His focus is limited to (declining) capital value - despite the fact that property prices (and rents) have increased markedly through most of the time he's been coming here......
Thus, Retired-Poppy's analysis is screwball. His comments here leave the general stench of ineptitude - and malice.
TTP (Edit 1)
😆🤣 It seems you omitted the key word "sustainable" in the same sentence with trajectory.
edit
With many opting to rent their houses out due to decreasing prices or failure to sell, soon enough the level of properties for rent will increase and eventually some will need to sell for financial reasons with it being uneconomical to keep them, or rents will need to decrease due to oversupply. If rents decrease then yield isn't viable for many and more will need to consider selling or have to prop up the mortgages with higher amounts lest they risk having an empty property, and many would rather rent lower than pay the full mortgage themselves in the hopes of someone paying higher rents.
"Don't drop the rent"....smells like match fixing in a free market environment.
Anecdotally, the property investors FB page is now talking about how difficult it is to find tenants, and how they have had to reduce asking rents to get people to even express an interest. As Rachel said "it wont happen overnight, but it will happen".
Secondly, the restoration of interest deductibility is decreasing rents - not by existing landlords dropping rents on existing tenancies, but by enabling new landlords to buy older (cheaper) properties and rent them out for lower rents, instead of buying expensive brand new builds and expecting renters to pay $100-$200 a week extra for the priviledge of living in a DuVal/Williams Corp shoebox townhouse.
Finally, restoration of interest deductibility has enabled people leaving the country to rent their house out instead of being forced to sell it. This has increased rental stock on the market, and as we all learned in Econ 101, increased supply lowers prices.
Fake news. One roof says the Auction rooms are “chocker”. Why would they lie? https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/264-bidders-22m-in-house-sales-south-auc…
That's because they are an immoral organization who's only intention is to pump real estate and peoples debt for personal gain.
When we have a political party that treats the RE industry like we treat the liquor industry it will have my vote.
“Once you have communal positivity, things become more positive because we’re sheep in this country, when it comes to confidence.”
They're even saying the previously quiet part, out loud... as new speculation! 🐑
How was it fake news?
It was busy, they sold half the properties - some after auction had passed in, property prices lower but some feel like it's a turn in the market?
That auction was on the 31st July so sales will make it into the Auckland REINZ numbers... we will see what has happened when they come out next week.
Numbers will be down the article says that much, so the article says the market is turning it says prices are lower and more are selling mmmmmmmmm
I notice that houses passed in at auction turn up as sold on the same day so yes, auction results may be correct but not true reflection of those houses sales rate.
If the houses have conditional offers on them, the vendors are not going to take a lower price at auction. They will pass the property in and then negotiate with the conditional buyers.
One roof says the Auction rooms are “chocker”
Due to "right sizing" they're now conducting auctions in much smaller rooms?
You have an answer for everything, don't you. Good to know we have a know it all in the room.
Oh-dear. Someone couldn't see their way clear to funny side. Tothepoint, you're nothing more than a frustrated Spruiker with baggage in tow.
As a know it all, sometimes (often) you are wrong, such as in this instance whereby you are confusing me with another poster.
I am in a very comfortable position. (another thing you are incorrect with your assumptions)
Somehow, I feel you may be in an uncomfortable position yourself with the way you treat others. (People with comments like yours are often not happy in their own skin)
I am sure you will have an answer as you seem to know every aspect of every persons life. (Which I can tell you now you do not)
Also, why can't you leave your comments as posted, always editing them, is this because you are not correct in the way you post them?
Sometimes it's actually good to admit you got something wrong, it shows a better person.
Feel better now you posted this bile Tim? Somehow I doubt it.
The truth hurts doesn't it.
Apparently.....
I would also like to add through observation that I believe you have made about 3 logins and that you make sure to "like" your comments quickly with 3, I wasn't born yesterday. (all good if it makes you feel better liking your own comments)
You're now the entertainment......
Retired Poppy is an upvote fiend... it wouldn't surprise me if he has multiple accounts.
Not necessarily, the DGM's are about 10 to 1 on here against you Nifty1. Interest.co.nz is very unbalanced un my opinion, the vast majority of successful people don't visit here, after all they don't need financial advice do they ? Anyone who has made it really big knows to keep a low profile.
It's good to keep an eye on the mindset of the DGMs even if it is for shits and giggles.
I just have to laugh at some of the crazy things that are posted. If I listened to them, I would still be an average wage earner with no retirement plan. As it stands, I wont have to work if I don't want to soon, a decade out from retirement, however, I enjoy what I do so will keep working, it's good for the brain.
Yeah its good to quit full time work by age 50. You can do other things to keep the brain active, I went back to component level electronics repair work and the odd bit of Sudoku works along with some decent card games. Not having to work for some asshole boss every day and doing what you want instead is the way to go.
The endless "no I'm right"... "no I AM right" posts between the dedicaded spec crowd and the non spec crowd has just plain boring and uninformative. At least the scrolls noise was kinda funny.
Perhaps if everyone just focused on constructive comment rather than endless FIGJAM.
-10% Dec 2023 to Dec 2024 Guaranteed
Retired-Poppy's obsession with up-ticks is part of his "point-scoring" mentality. Both are symptomatic of his NPD (Narcissistic Personality Disorder).
No doubt, many people will have realised by now that Retired-Poppy has fallen in love with his reflection - and thinks he's better than everyone else.
TTP
There has been one cased proven to be running several accounts to pump their noise. Sad as that sounds.
If was....it was you.
Looking for free rent?
Become a spruiker on interest.co.Nz and live rent free in the minds of DGMs.
Or become a DGM and live rent free in the minds of spruikers.
Rent is free but the landlord is like your anti-Christ (and will drive you to become irrationally minded..crazy) depending upon what religion you follow…the Church of Tax Free Capital Gains For the Old and Already Well Off or the Fellowship of Affordable Housing for the Young Tax Paying Labourers.
The prophet in the original scrolls did say blessed are the poor for theirs is the kingdom of heaven and that it is easier to get a camel to fit through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom.
If the Church of Capital Gains is your belief system, make sure you understand the price others pay for that personal gain you receive as you may find that you have gained the whole world but lost your own soul.
That's pretty heavy I would rather stick to nominal gains/losses rather then losing souls....
Perhaps but I saw a number lose their souls in the GFC while living in the US and the same here the last 10 years where money becomes more important than morals and people find them living in constant fear (FOMO or now FOOP). It is an incredibly unhealthy place for a society to be.
It isn’t just about nominal gains or loses - if it is for you then it is another symptom of a society that has its way. Houses are for family and society - not a speculative asset for the rich to gain more for themselves (even though this is what we’ve turned our housing market into)
I agree, arguably this house price appreciation started after the dot com bubble burst as Clinton changed lending rules and sub prime was born, the disease had spread globally by 2008, so its been 20 odd years, before that houses where cheaper as an income multiplier but more where shut out of ownership (subprime). It was done for the benefit of poor people. How has it worked out?
National wont touch it, and Labour had every opportunity once Jacinda left but Hipkin's had no balls, Parker had morals he resigned...
NZ was also a global outlier in early 2000's houses where cheaper then other places... so now we are winners, so much so
There are few bigger idiot bag holders. Smells like decades of stagnation, a bit like Japan had.
You can call anything an investment and sell it to a fool, even something that is cash flow negative.
Retired-Poppy's obsession with up-ticks is part of his "point-scoring" mentality. Both are symptomatic of his NPD (Narcissistic Personality Disorder).
C'mon Tim, you have at least two more pseudonyms at your disposal to tell me how you really feel 😆.
Going by the pic looks like investors are back FHB are out
The old Horsemen of the unaffordable housing apocalypse: Ashley Church, is coming up on ZB at 4pm.
Without doubt, we will grizzle, bristle and whine at any moves from the past/present Govt and RBNZ .....that has upset his money trader tables, that he manages in his quest for 100x house portfolio (at the expense of FHBs)
Strange money grubbing evilness, from a person who is supposedly Churchly - in both name and Sunday visiting.....
Ashley Church - "Property now doubles about every 12 years"
The guru has spoken, its clearly about... The Vibe
AC added that if the rbnz does not cut the OCR, (fixed) rates will drop anyway. In May the RB was threatening banks not to lower fixed rates or Orr would INCREASE the ocr.
Banks are at the ready to lower
I've just been watching the 6pm news, and apparently property prices are beginning to tick up.
This can't possibly be right because we've got loads of 'experts' here who predict a kiwi property catastrophe.
Well Winger, obviously you have not been watching here since 2020.
We all know, your like a snake oil salesman here, trying endlessly to suck in gullibles, as you try Huck off the piece of Riverhead swamp landbank, your bagholding.
Many of us here have been correct at calling the property super bubble and subsequent crash we are in the middle of......that has seen -30 to -40 real wiped off the bubble highs in REAL values, in the large cities. No way this Crash is over.
Provincial NZ, will be sliding down this fat snake faster now.
Have a great Sunday wannabe FHBs, take -30% of the the current asking prices now, to get the market low prices, that will be seen in 2026.
Harry Dent knows the score!
The last year or so has been a terrific time to drive a hard bargain and pick up a nice bit of dirt.
BTW, my house in Riverhead got underway last Monday, and as I drove there to check on progress yesterday, I see SOLD stickers plastered all over signs on nearby subdivisions under development, so there's a few very smart people out there.
They probably know something you don't.
by wingman | 10th Aug 24, 6:26pm - I've just been watching the 6pm news, and apparently property prices are beginning to tick up.
Wingman, the REINZ HPI for July has not been released yet so that's yet to be reported. Can you put up the link to the online news platform that reported property prices were starting to rise - thanks. I looked online and all I could find was this;
https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/07/15/housing-prices-and-sales-drop-around…
I can assure you it was there, I didn't imagine it.
Okay, here it is. TVNZ reporting the Kiwibank confidence survey; https://www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/350372184/capitals-economy-scores-2-o…
Unless I'm missing something here, the basis of their reporting is from the lows of last year, not what's happening right now. I suggest best wait for the latest REINZ HPI to get a handle on what's happening now. I can see how easily this report can be miss-interpreted as the forming of a current and sustainable recovery/floor.
All hail Jarrod Kerr!
edit - update.
Coatesville is the biggest winner in NZ recently, +$235,000 in the last 3 months.
Riverhead is up $40,000 in 3 months.
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/oneroof-house-price-report-july-2024-457…
I'm certainly not losing any sleep by the way, and after owning a lot of properties, that's a pretty good indicator it's hunky dory, for me anyway.
The crash is well and truly over. Prices will start to rise, probably rising already now banks are dropping rates. This Wednesday could see the confirmation in the halt of price declines. The OCR should be cut. Homes has my place at a low back in July, its been going up since then.
I've been reducing my exposure to shares, stock markets have been wobbling and October's approaching.
BTC - lower highs and lower lows.
S&P500 is well overvalued IMO, it is a matter of time until one of the companies still propping it up has a hiccup that starts a chain reaction. Even Buffet can see that the USA has the same issue as here with a large older generation, the social security has been pilfered for everything under the sun without paying back into it enough, and like NZ, they will have to do something to find the money. His feeling is that the Govt will have to tax it, and likely corporate tax will be a target.
Change retired poppy to retired poopy when you read the messages - try it it really makes the messages more bearable - cant remember who came up with it however it was gold
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