Barfoot & Thompson's average and median selling prices plummeted in July, but sales volumes jumped back up from the disastrous levels of June.
The real estate agency, which is the biggest by far in Auckland, sold 902 residential properties in July, up from 681 (+32%) in June, and almost as many as the 916 it sold in May.
That was the most properties sold by the agency in July since 2021 when it sold 1235.
However the median and average selling properties both dropped significantly.
The average selling price was $1,127,639, down $108,697 (-8.8%) compared to June. The median selling price dropped back below $1 million to $970,000, down by $50,000 (-4.9%) compared to June.
That's the first time that the median selling price has been below $1 million since February.
There were particularly big declines in the percentage of sales at the top end of the market, with the percent of sales above $2 million declining from 22.5% in June to 14.6% in July.
There is probably a cause and effect between the sharp drop in selling prices and the rise in sales, which follows on from the latest figures from Realestate.co.nz suggesting vendors are dropping their asking prices to meet the market.
However Barfoot's latest figures suggest the market still faces significant challenges, with the agency receiving 1518 new listings in July, up very slightly from 1506 in June.
The combination of higher sales and flat listings pushed the total stock on the agency's books down to 5446 at the end of July, the lowest it has been since February.
However stock levels remain elevated, and the 5546 properties Barfoot's had on its books at the end of July was the highest for the month of July since 2010.
"Buyers were attracted by a combination of vendors being prepared to meet the market and anticipation that prices may be at their low point given recent movement in mortgage interest rates," Barfoot & Thompson director Stephen Thompson said.
"Those vendors who were prepared to listen to their salesperson and who were prepared to meet the market, saw results," he said.
Barfoot Auckland
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120 Comments
This was always going to happen, with the number of high end sales last month, winter and the market collapsing before our very eyes.....
So its time to take a look at my -10% Dec 23 to Dec 24 forecast - Probably the most bearish but also accurate so far I have seen here.
Back in Dec 23 at Barfoot - The average sales price for the month of Dec 23 was $1,191,031.
Here and Now with 5 months to go - The average selling price for the month of July 24 was $1,127,639
So we are down 5.3% with 5 months to go, needing only a small 4.6% fall by the end of the year.
I wonder how much of the drop was due to the increase of first home buyers in the market buying lower value stock as opposed to price drops?
We must be towards the bottom of the curve and those with capital will probably be picking over the bones for some good deals prior to the uptick when interest rates begin their drop.. and the cycle repeats
In past rate cutting cycles the bottom in house price has been just after rates stop falling ie about 18 months time ish
Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
"Those vendors who were prepared to listen to their salesperson and who were prepared to meet the market, saw results," he said.
Are we are the bargaining stage of grief yet?
If you look back through the history of yield curve inversions, the majority of asset price falls after the curve normalises (which appears to be happening now). If true, the bottom of this market is still 12-24 months away.
So the bottom may coincide with rates hitting a floor (remember asset prices don’t always rise as interest rates fall).
Once this "correction" is spent it will be interesting what percentage decline it all amounts to either by adjusting for inflation or without. Once in the rear vision mirror, will economists then utter the dreaded word "CRASH"? Since this word is easily (in a more career preserving way) rolled of the tongue in retrospect - I'd say yes.
@IT GUY
I agree with you, your estimate is looking more and more likely. We appear to finally be entering the period of "price discovery" more and more vendors are dropping the price to meet the market, rather than withdraw the listing.
Great news for the RE agents, as the sale price has virtually no impact on their commission, they just need the sale.
If the number of higher end sales slows for those who can afford them, then i feel the real average price will be revealed. That’s the issue with a decent recession, the wealthy eventually atop spending as well and bide their time to soak up cheaper assets down the line.
What is a mortgage? The purchase of a property today, using tomorrow's income. Whether that's a home or an 'investment' property(s). Don't believe me? Then pull out our Loan Documentation and have a re-read, if you bothered to read it in the first place, that is.
That's it. Nothing about "to be paid off from Capital Gains that should eventuate tomorrow". There's nothing to say that has to be the case.
And if those who have a mortgage today find tomorrow's prices keep going lower, they will still have to pay off tomorrow's price with today's income.
Welcome to reality. Or perhaps, in our case, sanity.
a) that's a big drop
b) is it possible to get a breakdown on typology of property?
In parallel to this story is that there are a lot of new townhouses coming up for sale and the prices for those tends to be in the 750-950k range for the most part. Not ignoring that there's a drop, but I get the feeling it is not a like-for-like comparison.
You strike me as the type of person, that once your car dives off the edge of the cliff, you will simply pop into reverse gear and floor it. If that fails, you yank on the hand brake.
Yet still the car plummets, all good in your book, just a blip on the screen, and everything is under control. Right up to the point of impact ( reality check).
Agreed. For some reason that data is elusive. Logically all of these townhouse builds coming to market at the same time might account for this median.
Keeping expensive low volume sales in the mix skews averages and is misleading. Keeping Auckland central shoebox apartments in the mix isn't either.
Splitting the figures out into something like Hi-End, House, Townhouse, Unit, apartment would be more useful.
Agreed. For some reason that data is elusive. Logically all of these townhouse builds coming to market at the same time might account for this median.
Keeping expensive low volume sales in the mix skews averages and is misleading. Keeping Auckland central shoebox apartments in the mix isn't either.
Splitting the figures out into something like Hi-End, House, Townhouse, Unit, apartment would be more useful.
No one expects a Crash to be fun. It will ripple across all of our balance sheets. But we have a choice:
A Crash, just to use a word, that spreads the pain over the wider community of mortgage holders - most will be fine, and just keep paying the weekly amount regardless, or go back to concentrating The Pain on the smaller, younger group of future home buyers.
You missed the third option which is a long stagnation of house prices with inflation making them affordable again. We have already had a reversal of the Covid madness as well as a period of high inflation and big pay rises, so we are off to a good start. I don't think a significant crash from here will make NZ a better place for young people, it would probably just cause even more to leave due to lack of jobs.
This is what's actually happening.
After the initial ocr-upping, borrowing power diminishing drops, the remainder of vendors are in HODL to nominal value while real value is eaten away by inflation.
House prices rocket up and parachute down inverse to OCR, with a delay of 12-18 months, unless you're on the way down and are happy to allow erosion of your houses' unrealised equity
I have called it honestly and accurately so far, I have never said it was going to be fun.
Spruikers will not care if it crashes as they are long term investors who do not care about timing the market... and new FHBers will not care... come to think of it, who cares?
The economy cares. New house building has slowed and will probably grind to a halt. It might end up being good for FHBs, if they still have a job that is.
Ideally we would have never got here in the first place, but the second best outcome is a long stagnation of prices until inflation catches up.
There is a mathematical possibility of a long period of stagnation, just as there is/was a mathematical possibility of the Warriors making the final 8.
What upsets the apple cart is game theory. Everyone has to hold tight. Its a real life Prisoners Dilemma.
In all the bubbles / crashes I have witnessed, those who get out first, get out at a higher price, thus they win.
In this example the FHBer who gets in at the bottom also wins. There is no point taking the pain/holding the bag for the current owners.
Ask yourself what Barfoot's is saying above - those who meet the market get results.
Doesn't seem like they support everyone holding on and everything stagnating. The Spruiker's who live via month to month commission, do not actually care about price when they are short food for the table and lease payments for the white range rover.
It’s viciously complex, more than most realise.
Take your preferred outcome of flat prices over the long term. It’s actually not really plausible. The reason for this is that housing construction is quite reliant on prices increasing. If prices don’t increase, few houses will get built. That will eventually push prices up! Then more houses will get built.
get it?
This is assuming we don’t have flat to declining population like Japan.
a much more plausible option is lower house price inflation.
ultimately the only solution is the state building more housing for FHBs, if one actually cares about housing affordability.
I recommend Dr Cameron Murray’s ( an Australian economist) recent book ‘The Great Housing Hijack’. Unlike the vast majority of economists, Cameron has worked in the development sector so actually understands real world development economics. He promotes a strong idea for a mass house building program for FHBs in Australia, very similar to what I have been advocating for, for many years
What is all this talk of a possible future crash?
The market has already crashed, we are continuing to crash, we are in flagrante crashinglecto.
A crash isn't a possibility that might happen in the future it is what has already happened and what is continuing to occur right now.
The current "crash" is really just a reversal of a couple of years of craziness. A few people have lost money, some were unfortunate FHBs, many were speculators who I have no sympathy for. Until a significant number of people are in the negative I wouldn't call it a crash, more of a correction.
Similar sentiments being bandied around my water cooler community. The future direction is unclear and everyone waiting for signals. But consensus is that it's not the dreaded 'crash' - which in my opinion is too subjective to be defined properly anyway.
You a clutching at straws now..... so you will not care if your kiwi saver falls 20%, as its gone up 30% in the past and loss of future purchasing power does not concern you.... This is mad leftie Green Party type thinking.
but you must sleep well caring not about future or past market prices.
"Fruit and veg prices are well down on last years storm affected prices. Another crash?"
Is that cognitive dissonance in operation or is there some unidentified and undisclosed vested financial self interest bias operating here.?
Let's put the impact of the fall in house prices in context.
Fruit and vegetables are not the largest asset owned by over 60% of households in NZ Many owners of residential real estate have a mortgage outstanding, so house price changes impact their net worth even more so.
The most recent buyers in 2020-2022 period have used high levels of debt - many have experienced a large loss in their equity and some are now in negative equity (i.e more than 100% loss of their deposit) and still owe money to the bank if they are forced to sell.
The residential real estate owned by these households represents the majority of their wealth.
At the peak, residential real estate in NZ was valued at $1.76 TRILLION (and residential real estate is the largest asset class in NZ). Collectively in NZ, there has been a loss in value of $291 billion (or over 70% of GDP).
When was the last time, in the history of New Zealand, have households experienced a loss in asset value of 70% of GDP?
That's a weird comment, house prices are still up at a million bucks so plenty of opportunity for them to drop 20% and never recover right ? If houses go up 30% over like 18 months and fall again 20% in what was a very short timeframe it was never a crash, they just lost part of the gains. Anyone who bought outside that period of madness doesn't care less about the 20% crash.
"A 20% drop cancels out most of the gains of a 30% rise"
What most people in NZ fail to see:
A) The REINZ House Price Index for NZ is
1) -16.4% from peak in nominal price terms. For a buyer at the peak on an 80% LVR, their equity is -82.7% from their initial amount
2) -26.4% from peak in real terms (i.e inflation adjusted). For a buyer at the peak on an 80% LVR, their equity is -84.7% from their initial amount in terms of purchasing power. Many may be forced to realise this loss due to cashflow stress and inability to continue debt service payments.
B) The REINZ House Price Index for Auckland is
1) -22.0% from peak in nominal price terms. For a buyer at the peak on an 80% LVR, their equity is -110.3% from their initial amount (i.e they are in NEGATIVE EQUITY)
2) -31.2% from peak in real terms (i.e inflation adjusted). For a buyer at the peak on an 80% LVR, their equity is -109.0% from their initial amount in terms of purchasing power. Many may be forced to realise this loss due to cashflow stress and inability to continue debt service payments.
C) The REINZ House Price Index for Wellington is
1) -24.7% from peak in nominal price terms. For a buyer at the peak on an 80% LVR, their equity is -123.4% from their initial amount (i.e they are in NEGATIVE EQUITY)
2) -33.8% from peak in real terms (i.e inflation adjusted). For a buyer at the peak on an 80% LVR, their equity is -120.6% from their initial amount in terms of purchasing power. Many may be forced to realise this loss due to cashflow stress and inability to continue debt service payments.
Note: those numbers of the REINZ House Price Index numbers are to June 2024 and yet to factor in changes in July 2024 to be released.
At the moment I would call it a correction to crazy post Covid speculation. Is a rapid increase followed by a corresponding (lesser) decrease really a crash? Maybe technically, but not in my book.
After a crash I would expect the stock / house / etc to be cheap... It needs to drop a bit more IMO.
The market has already crashed, we are continuing to crash, we are in flagrante crashinglecto.
The idea of a property crash is only confirmed, accepted, and believed after the fact.
Usually it needs the endorsement and reinforcement of a trusted media source before the public accepts it as reality.
We are only comparing barfoot data here? what where you doing? and its not actually that small.
Barfoot themselves pointed out last month that their data was the highest since the 2021 due to a number of high end sales, better to compare with Dec 23 as I have above, we are down 5.3% and falling like a barometer in the southern ocean
Yep I think it will turn around pretty quickly, its all in the hands of the RBNZ now and how fast they bring rates down. I will be surprised if they don't cut this month, at the very least they will signal cuts in October which will be too late for quite a few people.,
Households are only just feeling the bite of inflation, net migration has recently halted if not reversed, extensive job cuts across many industries are still looming, and cost of living is hitting record highs... Just to name a few things that will create more head winds for the housing market ...
Here's the deal: Averages can seriously mess with your understanding of the real estate market. They’re easily skewed by outliers—like a couple of mega-mansions selling for millions—making it seem like prices are skyrocketing across the board when they’re not. Plus, they don’t account for shifts in the types of homes being sold. If a bunch of luxury homes in Parnell sell one month and a bunch of new-build townhouses the next, the average price will drop, but that doesn’t mean the market is cooling off.
Indices, on the other hand, are where the real story is. They track how the prices of the same or similar homes change over time, giving a true sense of whether property values are actually rising or falling. They cut through the noise, adjusting for differences in location, size, and quality, so you get a clear picture of what’s really happening in the market.
So, if you want to know how the market’s really performing, ditch the averages and look at the HPI—it's your best bet for understanding real trends, this is all just fluff and noise.
The likes of Zwifter and "Lord Riverhead" remind me of a Jethro Tull song : Fylingdale Flyer
Through clear skies tracking lightly from far down the line
no fanfare, just a blip on the screen.
no quick conclusions now everything will be fine,
short-circuit glitsch and not what it seems.
fylingdale flyer you're only half way there,
green screen liar for a second or so we were running scared.
On late shift, feeling drowsy eyes glued to the display.
dead cert alert, lit match to the straw.
one last quick game of bowls we can still win the day.
fail-safe; forget the things that you saw.
fylingdale flyer you're only half way there,
green screen liar for a second or so we were running scared.
They checked the systems through and they read a-o.k.
some tiny fuse has probably blown
sit back; relax and soon it will just go away,
keep your hands off that red telephone.
fylingdale flyer you're only half way there,
green screen liar for a second or so we were running scared.
fylingdale flyer you're only half way there,
green screen liar for a second or so we were running scared.
Barfoot & Thompson's average and median selling prices plummeted in July, but sales volumes jumped back up from the disastrous levels of June
That is a poor understanding of how markets work. Lower prices and lower volumes are not that bad, lower prices and higher volumes, which is the case for July is a much worse indicator for things to come.
Lower prices AND higher volumes is an excellent indicator of good news - i.e prices of shelter in NZ becoming more affordable based on income.
As soon as the cost of housing/shelter exceeds 35% of income then society starts to fray around the edges: Public housing waitlist 2014-2017 was under 5,000 then with the Labour Govt it shot up to 25,000.
Sure, it just depends on perspective, if you're a buyer or a seller.
What a lot of people don't realise, is that a severe property crash is also disastrous for the economy, meaning businesses, jobs, savings, lifestyle, lack of food, living on the streets, etc… In a year's time, many will wonder why they lost their jobs, and they will still not understand the reason.
Correct - high house prices, destroy economies by forcing its citizens to borrow large sums of capital which in turn, require a large amount of their income to service, leaving very little for discretionary spend. The broader economy suffers. We see this playing out now.
Thirded.
No doubt a housing crash will have all kinds of flow on consequences (starting to see some of these pan out now, and will only get worse in the short term re: employment etc). However, if we didn't have an economy built seemingly entirely on trying to sell each other houses at ever-increasing prices - and shafting renters in the process in order to help pick up the tab - it would make a huge difference.
Imagine waking up tomorrow and everybody in NZ who either pays a mortgage or rents is paying even 20% less (because housing market is less crazy). Hundreds of dollars a week extra in the pocket for many, which would quickly find its way into the tills of local retailers, hospo outlets etc -- although there is a bigger picture of trying to build less of an import and consume economy but I guess it makes sense to solve one problem at a time.
If I look around my friend group (early-mid 30s, young professionals perhaps with a kid or two) so many of them are in a bind because they've paid big money just to have a place to live, and to some extent the ability to "breathe" under the weight of the debt was only ameliorated by the fact that the value of the property would keep going up so at the very least there's an escape route of selling and clearing the debt if it all turns to custard. These are people on decent, sometimes very good household incomes who've got stuff all left to spend at the end of each week.
"many will wonder why they lost their jobs, and they will still not understand the reason"
And the reason is.....tada.... The amount of Debt is more than the resale value of the underlying asset.
If house prices were just half what they are today, the amount of Debt would be so much more serviceable, even if mortgage rates rose from here. But here we are. Too much Debt, and all in the wrong place; all backed by one asset class. What could possibly go wrong....
Nikkei down 5.5%. That's actually up from -"Japan's Nikkei 225 index plunges nearly 7% as global sell-offs resume"
Why is this important?
"The 1929 stock market crash made interest rates soar as banks faced insolvency due to the loss of their cash reserves invested in the stock market and a massive withdrawal of funds by customers. The Federal Reserve also raised interest rates to curb cash outflow, thereby reducing borrowing and investment"
Yes but Ben the flowerpot man did his Phd on that, it is now widely acknowledged that the FED at the time made a bad mistake not supply extra liquidity. Once leveraged funding started to be removed it caused a self perpetuating margin call.
They (Fed) will not make that mistake again, but there a a whole number they could make.
As JC says if the Carry trade starts to unwind the Fed and the BoJ will need to act together to fix this, hell the US may have to actually start to live within its means (The USA will look like NY City in the 70s).
100% for sure if Japan starts selling there treasury holdings the buyer is going to demand a higher yield and get it, perhaps the wonderful helpful and sage Mr Buffett will ride in and helpfully buy these at a high yield to help out the average US Taxpayer.... stranger things have happed and a super nice rotation from storks to bonds for him
Flooding economies with artificial liquidity is why we are facing what we are today. Liquidity is fine IF it is withdrawn ASAP the crisis is over. But we didn't do that; we never do. So the problems that accompany that failure, compound. Will we try the same trick again? Undoubtedly. And that...will only make things worse.
"Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said the central bank erred in waiting to address inflation."
The bad news is
- That revenue streams for the valuations in AI tech are not appearing as fast as expected. and FAST.
- The Carry trade is unwinding and FAST, this could accelerate as margin calls start.
- Valuations on all assets need to be validated by revenue streams. witness 40-60% falls in CRE in US.
- Israel looks like its going to start wider war (UK and US recall citizens on ANY AVAILABLE FLIGHT - buy 1st if necessary)
- Russia is going to be pissed about losing that sub, its going to escalate and Germany etc is going to have to fund more and POSSIBLY put people on the ground.
- US jobs market is looking weak - intel firing staff.
- The true ramifications of a trade war - ie intel and others will have to shrink, but valuations are based on global growth.
Positioning - what's your kiwi saver in right now NZ Cash- yeah thought so you probably in aggressive or balanced at worst, the entire world is positioned for agressive growth (us share market up what 20% to date this year). When everyone rushes to one side of the boat the boat becomes unstable.
the fact that the wisest sage has sold 1/2 his apple shares tells you heaps about it, you follow him I believe
Is he buying Riverhead?
You can spend your time looking up all the bad news, I'm more focused on making a bit of money. Mine's in the bank, I've got a property to build.
On the subject of Riverhead, have you noticed that the next suburb over, Coatesville, is up 40.7% in the last year? I find it hard to believe, but one can obviously conclude the whole area is blasting off.
On the other side of SH16, Taupaki is down 46.6%, maybe because the motorway's going through there.
Most here won't be interested in these observations, because predicting bad news and promoting socialism are the main activities.
Yeah, BTC's getting a real smashing, doesn't look like any real support until about 41,000 on my chart.
It's NZ's most expensive suburb....what does that tell you?
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/coatesville-overtakes-herne-bay-as-nzs-m…
Don’t get too excited!
There was a surge of sales that went unconditional in July that involved first home buyers desperate to buy before the First Home Buyer Grant came to an end.
This is the reason for the increase in sales volume and also the drop in average and median as the FHB’s were at the lower end of the market. Barfoots volume will drop again in August as the FHB’s drop out of the mix.
THE DAM HAS BURST......and the breach is widening.
Like the mighty Kakhovka Dam in UKR, that was blown asunder by occupying Russian operatives:
In the heat and misinformation of war (AKA Oneroof infowars) those below it, knew little of the torrents unleashed that would wash them below it away, like fiddly matchsticks......
Much like the already, hellishly beleaguered, under artillery fire control, NZ property market....
Price dropped 10M, but still if you pay rent you can't buy.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/524234/crunching-the-numbers-kiwis-…
But I thought the NZ property market was imploding and bankruptcy was pending for property speculators?
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/trophy-home-next-to-dotcom-mansion-snapp…
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