The national median dwelling value declined for the fifth consecutive month in July, down 0.5%, CoreLogic says.
According to the CoreLogic Home Value Index, the median value of all dwellings in New Zealand was $827,515 in July, down 0.5% compared to June, and down 2.5% (-$21,200) from February's summer peak.
The national median value has now retreated by $155,403 (-16%) from the record high of $982,918 set in January 2022.
Median dwelling values fell in all main centres in July versus June, ranging from -0.1% in Christchurch to -0.9% in Tauranga.
All of the main centres also recorded drops in the second quarter of this year, ranging from -1.4% in Christchurch to -2.7% in Auckland and Wellington.
The tables below slow the median value trends throughout the country.
"In an environment where economic growth is subdued and unemployment rising, with a knock-on sentiment affecting even those that are employed, it's logical to expect that the housing market would reflect this," CoreLogic chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said.
"In addition, the stock of listings available on the market remains at multi-year highs, giving credit approved buyers the power when it comes to negotiating a deal and agreeing a price.
"In that context it's not surprising at all to see that transactions are taking longer and vendors are having to give some ground to secure a sale," Davidson said.
CoreLogic Home Value Index - July 2024
Main Centres
Auckland Districts
Wellington Districts
Provincial Centres
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100 Comments
It's just a continuation of the slide that was already happening under Labour and mostly about interest rates. One of the main reasons for the boost mid last year was that people thought that National were going to support the market (agents were saying exactly that).
Would never have happened under a Labour government.
Jacinda Ardern wanted increasing house prices and houses to be more affordable at the same time.
Like some kind of Wizard of Oz. We all gather around sipping oat milk latte celebrating our differences watching our wealth magically increase without actually doing anything.
So she wanted incomes to increase and house prices to drop in % of income terms but not in nominal terms. What a crazy lady.
Next you will be telling me she wanted people to be nice to each other in a stressful pandemic with lockdowns.
So glad we have the coalition of Landlords, Trucking Lobby and Philip Morris in charge now.
How exactly did she do that K.W.?
Lets play a game, I will think of a few examples of divisiveness from the current government, and then you come back with your thoughts on Jacinda and her clear divisiveness.
This government has created a war on gangs. Plans to lock more people in jail. Calls poor people bottom feeders, business people B listers and the rest of NZ negative, wet and whiny. Jokes about blowing up government departments. Wants a referendum to nullify the founding document of NZ, the referendum being labelled by the government itself as 'divisive and unhelpful'. Implementing laws outlawing unisex toilets, and fining people for incorrect use as a clear hit at transgender people. Forcing councils to hold referendums on Maori wards only, not any other ward that is representing minorities like rural wards etc. Making government departments remove Maori names, because you know, screw the Maori and their language. Throwing out the entire Health executive board, so the government can have more control. Giving more power to those with power already like 90 day trials reinstatement, no fault evictions, removing and reducing housing standards. I could go on, but lets hear your list.
You say...."Wants a referendum to nullify the founding document of NZ, the referendum being labelled by the government itself as 'divisive and unhelpful'. Implementing laws outlawing unisex toilets, and fining people for incorrect use as a clear hit at transgender people. Forcing councils to hold referendums on Maori wards only, not any other ward that is representing minorities like rural wards etc. Making government departments remove Maori names, because you know, screw the Maori and their language. Throwing out the entire Health executive board, so the government can have more control. Giving more power to those with power already like 90 day trials reinstatement, no fault evictions...."
But I think you need to remember that none/most of these things existed prior to Ardern implementing them, and they are now being rightly pulled back by a government that was elected specifically for this purpose....and for your info, I don't think you can realistically compare an area of land called a rural ward, where everyone that lives there has an equal vote, with a Maori ward where only people of a particular race can participate. One is a racist concept, and the other is a geographical area. So, the Maori ward will be cancelled and rightly so. These wards will be cancelled all around the country. I understand some councils say they will go to a referendum, but they will fail and the net result will be that the council would be again spending rate payer money on something that they (rate payers) do not want, and the council members will be voted out as a result so they will be simply be cancelled.
Ardern intentionally set people up against each other the propaganda-ised vs those who prefer facts - typical divide and rule tactic. The word "kind" has taken on a whole new meaning - now a mashup of gaslighting & hate your neighbour & definitely don't talk to your neighbour. As to stressful lockdowns - that what a situation Ardern created. Lockdowns never did have any sort of scientific basis & she destroyed so many people's lives with her pure evil actions.
I don't know how you can say lockdowns didn't have a scientific basis. We successfully eliminated the virus repeatedly and enjoyed many more freedoms and fewer deaths than most other countries. I think the final lockdown in Akl was kept for too long - it will have saved lives elsewhere by buying time for vaccination, but I'm not sure that the benefits elsewhere outweighed the cost to Aucklanders. But that's one debatable misjudgment after two years of using lockdowns very successfully.
The average Covid death (worldwide) was aged 84 and had three serious co-morbidities. So all the people that were "saved" from Covid still died anyway. Just not from Covid. I dont see how changing their method of death by locking down the country and destroying the lives of young and healthy people achieved anything long term. The dead are still dead. Just not from Covid. Woopdedo.
So she wanted incomes to increase and house prices to drop in % of income terms but not in nominal terms. What a crazy lady.
People need to understand the difference between 'wants' and 'needs'.
If a leader promises you the moon without explaining what the trade-offs are, you need to be wary and question their authenticity. May sound harsh but that's the reality. Doesn't matter if you have the same taste in music and frequent the same cafes.
And trust me, Ardern is not some god-like figure who's able to magic up gold dust from her fingertips. Unfortunately it seems that many people don't want to believe that.
No. what I am saying is that trade offs are very much part of everything. It's not that difficult. If you think about it.
- House prices cannot become more 'affordable' if nominal prices are increasing beyond the sheeple's ability to earn. It's not complicated.
- If incomes are to rise, you cannot rely on an economy that doesn't produce anything of value. Yes, it may appear that economies that rely on credit creation to bid up prices of a generally fixed housing stock can create a wealth effect whereby more money is spent into an economy thereby having a positive impact on incomes. But history shows us it's a fool's game and is only temporary. I shouldn't really have to point this out in 2024.
OK yeah, I understand our economy generally is not sustainable and being propped up by a housing bubble. I am not one to cheer on house prices.
But, she simply reiterated the same thoughts on house prices of all the other prime ministers in NZ in the last few decades. For some reason you keep holding her to a much higher bar than anyone else. Lamenting her personality and historical popularity. It just comes across as a bit weird is all.
For some reason you keep holding her to a much higher bar than anyone else. Lamenting her personality and historical popularity. It just comes across as a bit weird is all.
I simply reiterated what she previously said to the NZ public in response to a comment. Her words. Not mine.
And perhaps Jacinda Ardern is some kind of economic visionary. It shouldn't stop people pointing out the contradictions.
But I think that highlights the general apathy and inability of NZers to think independently and critically. Challenge or criticize Ardern and next there are accusations of misogyny, racism, etc. It's very immature.
And challenge the coalition and you are are woke,lefty communist sucking on the teats of the "ordinary hard working kiwi mum & dad investors who are doing Gods work providing accomodation to the masses..."
Not so sure about that. It seems to me that the woke elite are equally as reliant on the Ponzi as the wingnuts. In fact, I would go as far to say the woke elite simply use those at the lower end of the socio-economic scale as props in their own aspirations and ambitions. A true woke revolutionary would be more like the ex-president of Uruguay Jose Mujica who practised what he preached. A true leader. No way would you find Mujica swanning around the world being paid silly money by the likes of Soros-affiliated organizations.
Luxon has the same stance though, he would only go as far as saying he wants "downwards pressure" on house prices, by which I think he means slower increases than in the past.
Good on Bishop for saying that he wants house prices to come down, I don't recall any Labour MPs saying that while in government.
I'd say Bishop's wish is like me saying I want an apple to hit the ground when I release it from my hand. "See, I made gravity happen!"
I don't expect to see any significant turnaround in the housing market until a rate appears with a 4 at the start. It may be 4.99%, but I suspect there's a psychological barrier that says 5s are bad and 4s are good.
Why are we still wasting our time talking about Jacinda Ardern?
The country needs forward looking people that can sort out the mess started way Back at the GFC.
Dirty laundered Money from 2008-2017 Killing our housing Market and the Kiwi Dream Thank You National.
Printed money on the back of Covid 2020-23 Thank You Labour
Not pretty now with Laundered money and print money off the roundabout.
There is only one answer.
Start working hard again New Zealand and turn this around we used to be good at working hard.
All these hard Jacinda haters were more than happy to take the helicopter money through covid with many exploiting their privilege as business owner/operators. Ignoring macro/global forces and the fact most other countries experienced the same or worse than NZ. Short sightedness and hypocrisy mixed with vile distain for a single human being is just a sad reflection of how many kiwis look at the world.
Lockdowns were never scientifically based. What should hardworking business owners do when Ardern shut down their businesses, for no reason - just cos she could? Go bankrupt because of unscientific & I might add unlawful diktats or take a small proportion of what they have lost in printed money. Ardern destroyed the economy by disallowing productivity (except of course big multinational business) and pumping printed money into the economy. You have suffered military grade propaganda but its time to wake up now so you are prepared for when they do it again. And if you think I'm kidding go and check out Health NZ draft "pandemic" plan. BTW we used to have a perfectly good pandemic plan which Ardern ignored.
The pandemic response was absolutely scientific. Multiple doctors I know working in hospitals across NZ wanted even faster lockdowns and border closures. The NZ response to the pandemic was one of, if not the, best in the world.
The threat of a pandemic is higher than a war. The total number of deaths above the yearly expected death count (which was a conservative estimate following previous years total deaths plus a year over year growth rate) in the USA was over a million people at the 2 year mark. For reference, ~420,000 Americans died during the entirety of WW2, that puts the total number of deaths due to pandemic at more than 2x the total Americans dead due to a world war.
It is absolutely right for a government to take action in enforcing temporary protective measures for a country. Those who rally against this strike me as the same type of people who refused to turn their lights off at night during the London air raids in WW2, contributing the deaths of their countrymen through their own ignorant stubbornness.
SKF
NZers used to be hardworking. Now they are just a bunch of lazy, entitled welfare parasites that expect everything to be handed to them on a plate without having to work for anything. That's 6 years of the Labour Govt identity politics telling people that they deserve special rights, and anything they want should simply be taken from their "oppressors" and be given to them.
“Possibly my biggest culture shock was (from my perspective) the lack of ambition,” one US expat claimed. There were positives to less of a hustle culture, such as better mental health, more perspective, and a pleasant approach to life. The negative was that, although the laid-back approach may have been fine 10 years ago, capitalism was making it harder for people in middle-class jobs to get by.
“There’s nothing fundamentally wrong with that if those jobs pay enough to survive and find a bit of enjoyment in life, but I feel that even over the past 10 years or so the culture and economy is changing such that it’s harder and harder for the average Kiwi to survive in this way,” they wrote."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/culture-shock-in-new-zealand-american…
She said it was hard to wrap her mind around work-life balance not being a priority, especially because they moved in the hopes of spending more time as a family. "There was also no focus on or understanding of mental health or work-life balance in our experience," she said.
Cassidy told news.com.au the move made her realise she took Aotearoa's work culture "for granted". In the end, they decided to move home.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/lifestyle/2024/05/kiwi-couple-shocked-by…
This is one reason why New Zealand is sliding into backwater, third world country status. Anybody with an ounce of work ethic and ambition is leaving, and all the losers who cant cut it overseas are coming back to get their reduced hours and WFF welfare.
We've been bouncing off record low unemployment for a long time now and people are still making these kinds of anti-NZer posts?!
The only reason why NZ is sliding into third world country status is because we got rid of land tax and loaded the burden on GST and income tax, disincentivising both work and trade, while incentivising inefficient and unproductive landholdings, and misdirection of capital into land. The real burden are the unproductive landholders squeezing the juice out of the working. They are the biggest beneficiaries by several orders of magnitude and parasites our country can no longer afford to support.
If we're generalising, i've fixed it for you:
NZers used to be hardworking. Now they are just a bunch of lazy, entitled generational multiple home-owning parasites that expect everything to be handed to them on a plate without having to work for anything. That's 30 years of cashing in hard earned intergenerational wealth, whilst investing nothing for the future to maximise short term gains telling people that they deserve special rights, and anything they want should simply be taken from their "oppressors" and be given to them.
Blame the game or blame the player.
Best to take away the old game and give the players the chance to migrate across to productive enterprise. Sure many will not be able to make that migration, but if enough do we will all be better off. IMHO if you seriously reduced companies tax this would help.....
I actually think you would solve this with more tax. Country wide LVT (again) plus a broad capital gains tax that includes housing and removing the FIF tax (which is insanely expensive on a compound basis if you want to invest in the S&P500 over 30 years).
With no capital gains tax I am heavily incentivised to sell my own company to American investors and let them milk the profits for years. Every $1 of profit I withdraw from my company is taxed, so it’s more like $0.66, whereas I could sell the company for 4-10x profit and not be taxed. That means I would have to work for 6-15 years in order to take home the same amount of $$$ that I could get in 1 year of selling the business… and we wonder why NZ tech companies usually get bought out by foreign investors that take the profits off-shore.
SKF
That is such a good point. It bugs me that promising companies simply get sold off (usually for peanuts) instead of being listed on the stock market. But worse, if you sold the majority of it to American interests but kept some stock, then you would be subject to FIF tax on your holding. So you are forced to sell it all.
It's perfectly valid to remind ourselves of history and learn from it. Take ANZAC Day, should we also stop talking about that and past wars?
Had you looked into history a bit further back, then you'd likely appreciate that our current (mainstream) problems started way before the GFC.
As for your one answer, we likely have more people engaged in work and working more hours than ever.
Hard work isn't going to answer anything when you're a slave to landlord/bank/visa application. That said, I would love a system that genuinely rewarded hard work in a remotely equitable way.
Fantastic.
The stoping of the greedy Bankers and Greedy realestate agents is well under way.
This is only good for young Kiwis who need a break.
Time for the rest of the country to invest in more productive things like business,Farming and shares.
Hopefully this will wake banks up to be more business like rather than running the biggest Ponzi this countrys ever seen.
I wish. I have a solid plan to significantly improve income on my rural property but the bank won't even consider lending until that income is already arriving. Currently attempting to poop out an egg so a chicken can hatch.
If I want to buy a rental property, however...it's raining hen, hallelujah, it's raining hen, amen.
(That song's stuck in your head now...)
The stoping of the greedy Bankers and Greedy realestate agents is well under way.
No it isn't, we've changed nothing of significance in the system to stop it repeating all over again at this point if interest rates returned to covid levels. Granted we are running out of road, but we also had a reserve bank talking up negative rates...
Time for the rest of the country to invest in more productive things like business,Farming and shares.
Why not keep them going as they are and reduce the population. Redirecting paper shufflers into roles needing filled in these productive things you speak of?
Hopefully this will wake banks up to be more business like rather than running the biggest Ponzi this countrys ever seen.
The banks are responding to the environment they operate in. The rules of the RBNZ that favour residential mortgages, the taxation setting that favour landlords over home owners and capital gains over the hard work you lament kiwi's aren't doing enough of. If the current rules remain, much of the profit from hard work will be captured by the FIRE sector.
All this is BAU, we haven't even start talking about things PDK has bought to our attention.
The FHBG does not appear to significantly increase housing accessibility for new entrants into the market. Instead, research has found that the scheme more commonly tends to accelerate the purchase of a home for those already planning to do so. So, rather than broadening access, the scheme simply tends to hasten purchase for those already about to buy a home.
Second, the FHBG tends to increase the purchasing power of first homebuyers, but in doing so it tends to further inflate house prices. This is because demand-side policies that give people more money to spend on housing tend to just end up increasing prices more. This suggests that the scheme may actually reduce housing accessibility in the long term – the very problem that such measures are designed to address. In turn, it suggests that the FHBG tends to benefit existing homeowners who will profit from their property prices increasing – and disadvantage future first home buyers, who will be forced to pay more for a home.
https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/first-home-buyers-grants-20-year…
Due to the combination of the FHBG, the ability to borrow more, and an inelastic supply, we have concluded that the FHBG did increase the median price of houses in Australian by approximately $57,321.
https://ojs.deakin.edu.au/index.php/dpibe/article/download/52/59/114
I must admit, I was worried for my kids in 2021 when we got to peak. All the usual suspects were telling us it would go up up up. I considered jumping in and buying a second property. I got the money arranged from the bank, and then decided, no, this thing is going to crumble like house of cards….and here we are. Maybe a lucky guess, but, I did end up not buying a 600k property for a million bucks like many seem to have. Much of this is all debt too, so the reducing internet rate is not going to make a lot of difference. We won’t see the lows again like during Covid, we are talking 5-6% rates instead of 7. So people are going to have to bail regardless as those mortgages are so big. It will be years as this plays out. Probably a few year to go until the bottom is reached. I’m picking below pre-Covid.
It’s cool to be a DGM now!
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-markets-are-betting-on-st…
There are some capitulations out there already
Friends daughter tried to buy a house at auction in Kapiti in 2021 - was outbid at auction and it went for $1.4m
Agent called her back a few weeks ago saying vendors now desperately need to sell - looking at offers over 880k
"loss of job or sickness the leading cause of house loss"
In the current house price downturn, high levels of debt (taken on at a time of record low interest rates) combined with rapidly rising interest rates have pushed many borrowers into cashflow stress.
Mortgage interest rates are currently above the bank stress test rates used in 2021.
"Friends daughter tried to buy a house at auction in Kapiti in 2021 - was outbid at auction and it went for $1.4m
Agent called her back a few weeks ago saying vendors now desperately need to sell - looking at offers over 880k"
Just out of interest, what is the address of that property?
I don't know whether house prices are falling or not. But what I do know is that the number of 'Houses for Sale' real estate signs on the property frontages are now proving to be a traffic hazard, especially to older drivers like myself.
Returning eastwards from shopping at St Luke's mall yesterday I was distracted from driving safely by the sheer number of House For Sale signs as I drove through residential areas.
I think that there has to be a limit to the number of House For Sale signs per, say, 100 metres of road. I would suggest no more than 20 signs per 100 metres. Auckland Transport should have already been on to this; they will be responsible for any accidents resulting from such distractions.
Normally in past recessions most of the really good high end homes just come off the market unless a forced mortgagee sale.... but the boomers are aging and I know of many in 70's stuck on rural with 2021 valuations still in mind, going to be a hard bridge to cross.... RVs will help
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUODdPpnxcA
With much anticipation of borrowing rates peaking - buyers will be out in force, especially now that they're finally falling - right? Um - no. This is the reset in unrealistic expectations we needed to have.
Job insecurity
Houses still overpriced
While Taylor Swift sings to Zwifty - "August slipped away into a moment in time"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfF7XQBfyxY
.....Zwifty is left wondering if August 2023 really was the bottom.
In my view there is still the possibility or likelihood of accelerating price falls as interest rates drop - which appears to be the contrarian view to the property lobby groups.
Rates will drop until unemployment/employment has stabilised once more - ie rates are dropping because the economy isn’t good and asset prices (in a normally functioning financial system) don’t go up when the economy is going tits up (insert more technical term if you please). To think that asset prices should rise/‘recover’ (or whatever this ‘recovery’ narrative means that the property lobby is collectively pushing) while the economy deteriorates is in my view delusional - but the 2020 experience is the probable culprit for this recency/confirmation bias in such thinking.
Ask yourself - why should asset prices rise while unemployment rises, businesses fail, incomes contract? That doesn’t make any financial sense at all. A caveat would be that the government steps in like covid and prevents any unemployment or business failure while rate cuts occur - but this most probably isn’t the case over the next 12-24 months.
Both and all parties are the wings of the same bird. With the same objective of stealing your wealth.
Whilst enslaving you at the same time. They have done this by dividing and conquering by switching and playing good cop 👮♀️ bad cop 👮🏻♂️
World debt is well over 300 Trillion. Derivatives/Futures are in the Quad trillion’s.
they are all set to fail.
John Key has leveraged all NZ roads against Derivatives and the other parties are complicit and have not said a word about changing this.
All these talking heads above are gaslighting you.
There is no justification for lowering interest rates. In fact it should be the opposite. It’s all designed to get you onto short term or floating rates. Before everything goes pear shaped 🍐 and to completely steal every bit of your wealth.
"Wall Street never recommends frugally piling up cash for a few years, as that generates no income for Wall Street, which thrives off the herd busily churning away capital, chasing the latest hot rotation into (in our case, residential property 'investments').....every asset goes down when massive credit/asset bubbles pop because "good" assets get sold to cover margin calls as "bad" assets plummet and debts have to be serviced or paid down.... That's the downside of a financial system that is completely dependent on debt and leverage for its survival: the asset valuations can collapse, but the debts remain and can only be cleared by bankruptcy / liquidation / insolvency. "
https://www.oftwominds.com/blogjuly24/great-unwinding7-24.html
Yeah I find it hard to believe Wingman is genuinely enthusiastic about his purchase, if he were then he'd not feel the need to continually seek validation from a bunch of nobodies on interest.co. Certainly may have sounded like a good idea at the time of purchase, but the council knocked back consent for the huge anchor project he was betting on (Botanic Retirement Village) so he's resorted to talking about how Riverhead forest would become a dam/recreational park.
If he were merely gloating about building a McMansion to live out his final days then all power to him, but claiming it's a suburb with huge uplift potential? Maybe in 20 years time.
Been for a drive out there recently?
It's chaos - roadworks, building, new subdivisions, school extension, massive new retirement village under construction, new intersections...it's manic. And it's only the beginning.
You know how the Rothschilds got rich? Buying when everyone said sell.
I guess time will tell. I can point you in the direction of areas down here that looked like they were going to take off and then flopped. Roading and traffic congestion is a dream crusher and in 10 years time when there are still empty sections you get the picture.
Its only going to fly if they build houses and people buy them. Take somewhere like Omokoroa, way better location than Riverhead, more like Whangapparaoa on an ocean peninsula but the road into the Tauranga CBD is a total nightmare. Look its pretty simple, Riverhead is a gamble, there is always a bit of luck picking picking the next big thing.
For those interested, here's a look at the magnitude of the residential real estate price drops in China in the last 2-3 years. Given the magnitude of the price drops, there will be many negative equity situations.
https://youtu.be/7GoroDrPwYE?si=Z4Q026Z9mjjgeSUv&t=261
The bigger the party, the bigger the hangover
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