Average dwelling values are continuing to retreat, with the decline most noticeable in Auckland, according to property data company CoreLogic.
According to CoreLogic's House Price Index, the average value New Zealand dwellings was $927,284 at the end of June, following small but steady declines over the previous three months.
The national average dwelling value has now declined by $7522 since March.
However the rate of decline was much greater in Auckland, where the average dwelling value was $1,263,937 at the end of June, down $33,658 since the end of March.
However the national average dwelling value in June was up 1.8% compared to June last year.
CoreLogic's June report said the annual 1.8% increase reflected the earlier 3.2% rise in values between September 2023 and March 2024, which proved to be temporary.
"The last 12 months could perhaps be described as a dead cat bounce, with confidence perhaps misjudging the trajectory of interest rates," CoreLogic NZ Head of Research Nick Goodall said.
"Inflation has remained sticky, particularly domestically, as the Reserve Bank has stayed true to their commitment of using monetary policy to bring consumer prices under control."
"It looks [as] though interest rates could stay higher for longer, restricting borrower numbers and lending amounts," he said.
Looking ahead, Goodall's expectation was for more of the same.
"Mortgage holders should continue to prepare for similar levels of interest rates for the rest of the year, and homeowners for the market upturn to underwhelm, especially with job security now declining," Goodall said.
The table below shows the average dwelling values for all urban areas throughout the country at the end of June and their changes over three and 12 months.
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| CoreLogic House Price Index | ||||
| Three Months to June 2024 | ||||
| Territorial authority | Average current value | 3 month change % | 12 month change % | |
| Far North | $716,528 | -0.4% | 2.8% | |
| Whangarei | $744,131 | -0.3% | 0.1% | |
| Kaipara | $867,430 | 1.8% | 0.4% | |
| Auckland - Rodney | $1,261,517 | -1.2% | 1.6% | |
| Rodney - Hibiscus Coast | $1,193,698 | 0.9% | 3.6% | |
| Rodney - North | $1,289,392 | -4.5% | -1.9% | |
| Auckland - North Shore | $1,443,101 | -3.6% | 2.0% | |
| North Shore - Coastal | $1,655,433 | -3.1% | 2.1% | |
| North Shore - North Harbour | $1,424,519 | -3.5% | 4.2% | |
| North Shore - Onewa | $1,148,512 | -3.3% | 0.7% | |
| Auckland - Waitakere | $992,623 | -1.9% | -0.1% | |
| Auckland - Central suburbs & CBD | $1,453,207 | -2.3% | -1.6% | |
| Auckland City - Central | $1,245,158 | -2.3% | -1.1% | |
| Auckland City - Islands | $1,564,207 | 0.1% | -2.4% | |
| Auckland City - South | $1,300,985 | -2.8% | -1.9% | |
| Auckland_City - East | $1,811,315 | -2.0% | -1.4% | |
| Auckland - Manukau | $1,131,810 | -3.3% | 1.1% | |
| Manukau - Central | $874,151 | -3.2% | 0.6% | |
| Manukau - East | $1,418,841 | -3.5% | 2.4% | |
| Manukau - North West | $991,016 | -2.6% | 0.4% | |
| Auckland - Papakura | $895,697 | -3.6% | 2.2% | |
| Auckland - Franklin | $896,837 | -2.1% | 0.0% | |
| Thames Coromandel | $1,193,828 | 3.4% | 1.4% | |
| Hauraki | $649,756 | 1.6% | 0.5% | |
| Waikato | $744,189 | -3.3% | 2.0% | |
| Matamata Piako | $695,373 | -0.5% | -0.3% | |
| Hamilton | $813,602 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| Hamilton - Central & North West | $763,164 | 1.5% | 2.6% | |
| Hamilton - North East | $998,007 | 1.2% | 0.2% | |
| Hamilton - South East | $758,222 | 0.3% | 2.6% | |
| Hamilton - South West | $713,855 | -0.1% | 0.6% | |
| Waipa | $878,384 | 0.5% | -1.1% | |
| Otorohanga | $514,167 | -1.6% | -1.1% | |
| South Waikato | $423,759 | -1.4% | -0.3% | |
| Waitomo | $367,714 | 3.7% | -4.5% | |
| Taupo | $852,213 | 0.6% | 2.1% | |
| Western BOP | $988,725 | -2.0% | -0.5% | |
| Tauranga | $1,030,783 | -0.7% | 0.7% | |
| Rotorua | $666,491 | 3.1% | 2.5% | |
| Whakatane | $720,768 | -0.8% | -1.5% | |
| Kawerau | $401,399 | 5.9% | 6.1% | |
| Opotiki | $498,539 | -9.6% | -3.5% | |
| Gisborne | $604,569 | 0.5% | 1.8% | |
| Wairoa | $421,518 | 2.7% | 4.3% | |
| Hastings | $789,576 | -1.2% | 3.0% | |
| Napier | $759,651 | -0.8% | 1.6% | |
| Central Hawkes Bay | $570,288 | -5.8% | -3.9% | |
| New Plymouth | $717,019 | -1.2% | 0.5% | |
| Stratford | $472,758 | -6.2% | 0.6% | |
| South Taranaki | $435,115 | -4.1% | -2.2% | |
| Ruapehu | $381,714 | 7.1% | 5.8% | |
| Whanganui | $520,393 | 2.3% | 3.2% | |
| Rangitikei | $428,935 | -0.1% | 5.5% | |
| Manawatu | $615,447 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| Palmerston North | $646,125 | -0.9% | 1.4% | |
| Tararua | $409,790 | -1.2% | -0.8% | |
| Horowhenua | $566,793 | 0.1% | 1.8% | |
| Kapiti Coast | $849,882 | 2.5% | 5.4% | |
| Porirua | $846,211 | 2.3% | 6.4% | |
| Upper Hutt | $761,577 | -1.0% | 5.3% | |
| Lower Hutt | $791,930 | -0.4% | 3.1% | |
| Wellington City | $1,036,825 | -1.0% | 2.2% | |
| Wellington - Central & South | $975,471 | -2.7% | 0.7% | |
| Wellington - East | $1,148,679 | 0.0% | 3.1% | |
| Wellington - North | $986,763 | -1.0% | 2.8% | |
| Wellington - West | $1,192,956 | 1.8% | 2.3% | |
| Masterton | $593,556 | 5.3% | 7.3% | |
| Carterton | $633,219 | -0.8% | 0.4% | |
| South Wairarapa | $787,787 | 3.6% | -1.1% | |
| Tasman | $818,708 | 2.5% | 4.9% | |
| Nelson | $784,665 | -0.3% | -0.2% | |
| Marlborough | $708,600 | 1.2% | 2.6% | |
| Kaikoura | $743,390 | 3.2% | 15.5% | |
| Buller | $357,802 | -0.1% | 4.4% | |
| Grey | $413,654 | 0.4% | 12.5% | |
| Westland | $433,587 | 2.0% | 10.5% | |
| Hurunui | $647,788 | 3.0% | 2.8% | |
| Waimakariri | $714,456 | 0.5% | 2.2% | |
| Christchurch | $765,011 | 0.3% | 4.5% | |
| Christchurch - Banks Peninsula | $859,962 | 4.7% | 8.8% | |
| Christchurch - Central & North | $868,306 | -0.5% | 4.5% | |
| Christchurch - East | $594,987 | 0.4% | 3.5% | |
| Christchurch - Hills | $1,090,665 | 2.3% | 4.7% | |
| Christchurch - Southwest | $728,120 | 0.4% | 5.3% | |
| Selwyn | $838,059 | 0.1% | 4.0% | |
| Ashburton | $564,708 | 5.5% | 5.3% | |
| Timaru | $529,855 | 1.3% | 4.0% | |
| MacKenzie | $755,520 | 1.1% | 14.6% | |
| Waimate | $423,983 | -3.2% | -3.8% | |
| Waitaki | $489,065 | 1.3% | 3.8% | |
| Central Otago | $842,279 | 1.9% | 8.1% | |
| Queenstown Lakes | $1,823,499 | 2.7% | 6.2% | |
| Dunedin | $649,866 | 1.5% | 5.1% | |
| Dunedin - Central & North | $665,433 | 1.9% | 7.5% | |
| Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal | $629,423 | 4.5% | 4.4% | |
| Dunedin - South | $601,407 | -0.5% | 1.6% | |
| Dunedin - Taieri | $685,035 | 1.7% | 5.7% | |
| Clutha | $405,849 | 2.7% | 1.4% | |
| Southland | $511,299 | 0.8% | 2.7% | |
| Gore | $420,107 | 2.4% | 0.3% | |
| Invercargill | $483,279 | 2.3% | 6.0% | |
| Auckland Region | $1,263,937 | -2.6% | -0.1% | |
| Wellington Region | $918,380 | -0.5% | 3.1% | |
| Main Urban Areas | $1,017,700 | -1.5% | 1.3% | |
| All of Aotearoa | $927,284 | -0.8% | 1.8% | |
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116 Comments
I've been tracking auction data published on this site more closely, for the last week. Looks like the downward momentum is accelerating, admittedly from a small-ish sample. Auckland data only:
26th Jun 25% sold, 64% below RV
27th Jun 30% sold, 74% below RV
1st Jul 67% sold, 100% below RV
2nd Jul 24% sold, 87% below RV
3rd Jul 24% sold, 85% below RV
and the "belows" are much more below than the "aboves" are above... total "loss vs RV" for each day is:
26 Jun $1.7m
27 Jun $2.6m
1 Jul $120k
2 Jul $3.2m
3 Jul $3.1m
but Median and Mean fall v RV are both -10%.
"published on this site... for the last week... admittedly from a small-ish sample"
Thats what we like to see 👍🍻
The day of reckoning has arrived..
Reckoning?... Average Auckland house price still $1.26 million, down 0.1% over 3 months LOL. All of NZ up 1.8% over 3 months. Nothing to celebrate really.
Okay then, a year or two of reckoning has arrived. Is that easier to down?
You can either swallow it in itty bitty portions over the next one to two years or today in one go - your choice :)
Yeah more downward pressure coming, the authorities are serious about it...(sarc)
National are going to reduce house prices by allowing interest deductability again, changing brightline 2 years, making CCCFA easier, continue to allow mass immigration. RBNZ at the same time is going to loosen up LVR restrictions, apply a DTI that has no impact & reduce the OCR in the new year...
Well, undoubtedly most Spruikers voted for "pro-property" Government. Now, like yourself they're evolving into CYNICAL critics. Notice the gutless maneuvering to claim credit for making homes more affordable, largely derived from a market correction that was on the cards, yet successive Governments fell woefully short on the grit needed to induce.
Te wai pounamu is the place, neither too hot nor too cold
Oh no. But but the vested said it was up up and away time again and that the bottom was in. They wouldn't lie... would they?
Smoky popcorn.
Awaiting the usual BS to start... might have to stock up on that smoky 🍿
Adrian Orr would love some popcorn as well.....but he overcooked it.
Adrian Orr is doing an excellent job. RBNZ has a clear and sensible mandate to guide it - and Governor Orr is making no bones about that….…
He’s doing exactly what he should be doing to reach RBNZ’s inflation target - which is in the very best interests of the economy at large and our local communities.
TTP
TTP .....we actually agree on something ! ....this crazy "debt splurge" has to end and not just here, but world wide.
Why should NZ be economically "held to ransome" waiting and wanting interest rates to fall, by a few "astute" over leveraged property investoors and buyers that thought house prices "would never decrease", egged on by "vested interests" for years - you know the suspects - wink wink ...with the media, banks and the RE industry at the forefront of all this (while the banksters are STILL creaming it!)
The dollar, in fact all FIAT currencies are being whittled away through inflation (taxation by stealth !) to toilet paper - where's that going to get the average consumer ???
I have been banging on here for over 10 years, that this "property ponzi party" was never going to end well (perhaps for a small minority only) as the major reason was all these funds going into an "unproductive asset". If all that moolah for the last 12 years at least, going through the banks over all these years, had been invested into R&D, new innovations esp. in the technology space, we would of been one of the most innovative and advanced countries in the world.
But not little ol' Nuzullin' - myopic,small minded and greedy - buying and selling houses to each other thinking it would go on "forever".
So NZ gets what it deserves ...... ...I always remember John Key saying "high house prices are a good thing" - yeah, maybe for you and your bankster mates....
Adrian Orr is doing an excellent job.
Considering anyone with high school economics could tell that by flooding the country with cheap debt in 2020 would inevitably cause inflation, not discounting the oil price as well, I consider that his incompetence of leaving the OCR too low for too long is not made up for going "whoopsie" and pulling the lever hard to crank it back up quickly again after. He and the RBNZ would have know the delayed impacts of their decisions or lack thereof due to fixed mortgages. Simply because one waits for the tide to go out doesn't mean one can take credit for it.
Sure agreed ....but if Orr does lower interest rates now, what happens to the NZD vs.USD, EUR etc ...it devalues, so NZ pays more for its oil and imports etc and for the consumer, inflation raises its ugly head again, so Orr is caught between a "rock and a hard place". If Robbo and the Labourious Party had perhaps put the handbrake on all the government spending in 2020, this situation would of been curtailed - but with so many with their handout, where were the screams and yells then ? that too much had been given out.
I for one, used to say to people then "all this will be have to be paid back one day" and was just left with total blank stares.
This is what happens when a country lives beyond its means and Orr knows that many of the NZ population was "sucked in" by the PPP (Property Ponzi Party) with many not curtailing spending, while having all debt and no savings.
You have to start critically thinking what's best for the country economically - now and in the future. Not where this leaves my mortgage, while if you took out a mortgage you should be fiscally responsible for it - in all scenarios. Any one with high school economics could tell you that.
Burned it
The current DGM (spruiker) narrative of denial is comical. Here's an episode yesterday from a group called "The Property Development Club". Some absolute gems in the first 3 minutes:
“What's happened in the last 3 months doesn’t mean anything - it’s winter, it’s cold it’s wet”
“So we revert to the 12 month and can see the market is flat.”
“A flat market is a signal of strength”
🤡🍿
"But but the vested said it was up up and away time again and that the bottom was in"
Who said that Averageman ?
well a lot more cheap land is now coming
Due to zoning changes?
Oh just read the news!
From where? It can take years to get developments past the Council.
Great for ya isn't it
I’ve been keeping an eye on this forum for a while now.
Many people here correctly called the dead cat bounce/bull trap a long while back now.
Fair play, good call 👍
Denial is the most predictable of all human responses.
If things really do fall off a cliff from here, this is tracking a classic asset bubble graph remarkably accurately
Only 9 months late on the call I made last Spring, which was ridiculed by the usual suspects here.
the announcement today going to be interesting.... more building on edges of city coming.
not good if you have purchased just inside the boundary
But But But....all this red Very - - - negative ink, is but a mirage...
In Wingerland, all is roses and Riversoggyhead is just flying ahead.......
Wingnut should have purchased just outside the urban boundary.... like the smarter players.
Loving this from RNZ - exactly my thoughts whenever I see people whining about non stand alone housing:
People often complain to me about all these 'shoebox apartments', and I agree that they won't be the right housing solution for everyone. But you know what is smaller than a shoebox apartment? A car or an emergency housing motel room," Bishop will say.
Nobody likes change ... but it's inevitable.
I suspect recent developments will kill NZ property ponzi for good. Our cities will start to resemble those of overseas and as money lives property it will be easier to implement a CGT and attract and retain smart kids.
The fantastic news is investment money will be looking for new homes. Kiwis have a reputation for innovation so if the ponz dies I reckon a very cool productive business Phoenix will rise within a decade or so.
Absolutely. Truth bombs there from Bishop.
As a life-long leftie I hate to admit it, but Bishop will probably do more to improve housing affordability than any Labour minister would.
I'm ever hopeful, but Twyford was saying all the same things in 2017. Luxon has not backed Bishop up at all. I'll believe it when the legislation actually makes it through cabinet. Plenty of time still for Winnie to pull the handbrake.
Fantastic best thing that could happen to this country.
Now these bankers need to get back to support productive business.
Their Ponzi is falling apart.
But in true Nact NIMBY fashion,they will make sure the leafy suburbs don't have shoe boxes;
The changes will be controversial on the pro-development side too. The Government is making good on National’s coalition agreement with Act to make National and Labour’s bipartisan Medium-Density Residential Standards (MDRS - often called the sausage flat rules) optional for councils.
There are plenty of multi-unit property developments in some of Auckland's more upmarket suburbs although agreed they are not in all of them yet.
Yes the real part of this once in a lifetime crash (Crash is already 100% started- by any measure) - is yet to start the most epic leg down:
Stages in a Bubble | The Geography of Transport Systems (transportgeography.org)
2012 to 2015 prices are coming back into fashion again. Just make sure there is not too much sitting in your NZ/AU bank accounts (VERY exposed to the AU /NZ housing ponzi) and diversify yourself into everything.
Interest is the best site for real economic news. We hear it here, first!
Ireland crash happened over a 4 to 5 year period. About 50% drop from their peak. I reckon we will beat that by the end of winter 2025.
Interestingly I suspect the coalition knows its coming. If so chris bishops strategy of trying to make houses affordable will mean that they can take credit for the crash (a well executed plan in fact).. Whilst blaming rbnz for the recession tha accompanies it... if they take action to accelerate it then it will all be over and we will be in the start of a boom by the next election.
Genius.
Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding
Add that once house prices collapse and FHBs are screwed they will sweep in and buy it up cheap before the next rally.
Put my house deposit where?... I just want to buy a familly oriantated house, one with a few m2 back yard, vege garden would be nice.
You need to do some research on risk vs return on deposit and how long to invest for.
I've gone kiwibonds and on call account's, hopfully can bend settlement to suit.
"Ireland crash happened over a 4 to 5 year period. About 50% drop from their peak."
Remember that Ireland's financial system became unstable and then needed recapitalisation. The government debt to GDP ratio rose substantially after the collapse of the financial system.
People only remember the importance of financial stability when there is no financial stability.
I think an important difference is that Ireland is not a sovereign currency issuing nation right? So they have zero control over monetary policy?
Not saying a crash in New Zealand wouldn't be damaging, but we have quite a few more tools at our disposal to intervene.
"I think an important difference is that Ireland is not a sovereign currency issuing nation right? So they have zero control over monetary policy? "
Correct. They are using the Euro as their currency with the European Central Bank.
"Not saying a crash in New Zealand wouldn't be damaging, but we have quite a few more tools at our disposal to intervene. "
The financial system requires confidence by depositors and wholesale lenders to banks. Once confidence is eroded there can be a liquidity shortage. Look at Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank last year. Look at the GFC when there were concerns about the financial system in NZ and to restore confidence in the financial system the government had to issue guarantees.
Show me where on your speculation curve that it happened in 2008-2011? it didn't.
you're going to be sitting on your cash forever waiting for this crash. you may as well put it in BTC :D
Very Rookie question on the GFC can kicking. Rookie says as Rookie does?
Enjoy your fleeting.... return to normal phase......
no answer? just useless commentary...
We had very favourable conditions during the GFC.
This time we don’t and we’re already paying for it in much larger and continued housing losses.
Thats before the significant job losses around the corner and sticky inflation risk.
It’s just not the same, it’s worse this time, much worse.
We will be paying the piper this time, in full.
What was favorable for us in the GFC?
Central banks drove down the cost of money/debt as an emergency response?
Our banks weren't involved in dodgy securitised derivatives
Good read. This is so true
Confidence and expectations encounter a paradigm shift, not without a phase of denial where many try to reassure the public that this is just a temporary setback. Some are fooled, but not for long.
I’m pretty sure Aussie bank deposits are government backed up to 250k
Doesn't matter as most NZers don't mind seeing the property values halve.. getting exactly what the majority is asking for
After all the hype and fomo of the last few years... it's kinda funny (in a good way) that most people want prices to fall.
I suspect the time is right for CGT to be implemented soon too. The only people against to it are the same minoritydgms (dgms = landlords and REAs etc) who seem to be the only people still wanting house prices to rise and nz to continue to lose its smart kids, increase crime etc.
As a tech business owner.. I would love to see CGT as it would work much the same as overseas and unable govt more scope to lower other taxes and to improve infrastructure/public services and attract and retain better skilled workers ... which would help me grow my business and export more.
The house price, low ocr, nantiCGT centric Dgms are really holding nz back. Nz needs to move on from the medieval property ponzi and catch/overtake the rest of the oecd on productivity and tech export biz.
Look for the areas where there's development on the drawing board.
Riverhead is up 10% in the last 12 months, and Massey, which includes Westgate shopping centre and what looks to be a new industrial development by the motorway is only down 1.1%. There's a ton of work underway at Westgate.
If you're a contrarian....opportunity knocks. Fortune favours the brave, no one ever got rich sitting on the sidelines whining about how bad it all is.
If you're an experienced builder or developer absolutely, you can still make money. Potentially not as much as previously but yes there is always opportunity.
Most of the sentiment on this site is aimed at the buy and hold investment strategy.
No. But many people have lost everything they have, and more (they'll keep coming after you for any shortfall) by refusing to acknowledge that the landscape has changed. It has. It had to. It was only a matter of when.
Winger, what have you done?? You have chosen the worst time to back up the truck and attach your wagon to the NZ HOUSING PONZI.
- Oh well, we all learn lessons in life.
The 100% confirmation of the dying NZ Housing Ponzi, is truly a beautiful sight, for the betterment of NZ.
I've just got permission from the Council to build in Riverhead, a suburb that's up 10% in the last year. It's taken 6 months to get it through Council.
There's been lots of recessions and they generally don't last longer than about 18 months.
I'd be very interested to know how come there's going to be a housing crash when there's lots of immigration, mountains of Council red tape, new builds are slowing up and interest rates are high?
Any ideas?
It never ceases to amaze me how some people can celebrate things that are generally detrimental to the majority like mass immigration, council red tape, crisis forcing ridiculous fiscal policy, lazy govt policy etc because it benefits them. Narcissism is the new pandemic.
Totally agree. Narcissism and greed.
With a sprinkle of delusion on top
Depends if you want to be rich or just your average kiwi with a mortgage.
you want to be rich
And there it is.
Correct. Anyone who says money makes you unhappy is talking a load of BS.
There are different ways of getting rich, by exploiting others or at the detriment of others, or by running a honest and fair business. Just a revelator of people's character.
I guess the trick is to be "rich" enough that you are never affected by the lawlessness outside your gate, and be able to pay for all of your private medical/care needs (as the country goes to cack around you)
Top tip, people who want to be rich don't spill their amazing and secret formula, 100% guaranteed, to return a massive amount on tiny investment to random strangers on a website. They keep it to themselves so they can make all the money.
I'll say it again, when someone comes in here trying to talk up amazing investment opportunities they are generally selling.
Don't believe it - buy property when interest rates are high, and sell when they're low.
It's not exactly brain surgery ya know. People have been doing it for hundreds and probably thousands of years. Just do ya homework before you open your wallet.
See my comment above, it rings better when you keep repeating yourself.
Riverhead is up 10% in the last 12 months
If only you donated a dollar for each time you say this, you may as well have been able to subscribe to interest.co.nz XD
But I keep hearing that the property market's collapsing.
It's taking a dive in most places, but where there's future development on the radar it's either levelling off or on the way up. Have you ever thought of giving it a go? Or is that asking a bit much?
"Have you ever thought of giving it a go?"
Not everyone wants to get into the property development business or build their own home. Just like not everyone wants to be an economist, a doctor, a nurse, a policeman, a coffee shop owner, a motel owner, or a retail shop owner, a tech startup owner, etc.
Being a property developer is definitely not for newbies or novices. Don't know about this guy's experience but he is a supposed expert in real estate and tried being a property developer in the geographical area of his expertise.
Rawson said he had already taken a massive hit on the project. The total cost was $2.35m, which includes the cost of buying the property, subdividing, renovating both houses, putting in new driveways, connecting services, and upgrading the stormwater and sewer. He estimated he would be lucky to get $1.44m back.
“We are taking a $500,000-plus hit. It’s a big loss.”
The house had been sitting empty for seven months while the various consents and sign-offs were completed and they didn’t want to pay any more in holding costs, he said, which was one of the reasons the marketing campaign was only two weeks.
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/real-estate-bosss-1-reserve-gamble-as-de…
Once a boom is well started, it cannot be arrested. It can only be collapsed.
~ John Kenneth Galbraith
You should take a drive around Riverhead. Lots for sale, nothing sold.
"Dead Cat Bounce" "Suckers Market" - it sure was wasn't it! Spruikers are so obsessed with their rear vision mirrors they're constantly tripping over the smallest of stones.
"Spruikers are so obsessed with their rear vision mirrors"
The property promoters are so obsessed with earning revenues so that they can earn income to pay for their living costs (i.e their vested financial self interest)
To persuade potential buyers to transact (& get paid) many are using the following reasoning to create expectations of rising house prices and a fear of missing out in potential buyers:
1) house price momentum is positive
2) house prices have bottomed
3) interest rates have topped out and will be falling, and house prices will rise when interest rates fall.
Owner occupier buyers: CAVEAT EMPTOR.
Property promoters do not owe you a fiduciary duty, they are motivated by their vested financial self interest.
50 billion of additional mortgage borrowing in 2020 and 2021 that now has very little backing it up.
The vehicles, boats and other toys have depreciated. The houses have depreciated. The overseas holidays are a distant memory. The cost to service the debt has more than doubled.
Overseas holidays are definitely not a 'distant memory'.
I've been doing quite a bit of overseas travelling recently, and the aircraft have been chokka. I know this because I can check the loadings.
Maybe on the outbound leg. Coming back to NZ , not so much. Departures exceeded arrivals by 143,000 in the last 3 months according to customs stats. That's about 5 Dreamliner loads a day of arrival/departure imbalance.
We will need to soon add in the 2019 and 2022 and 2023 underwater loans.......tighten the hardhats!
This unwind and eventual "mark to market" of toxic mortgage Debt will have some major wreckage.
The complicity of the FIRE industry is indisputable- and they are now deep into Ponzi Protection mode.
- Like protecting a low tide sandcastle with a Jandal wall, at a West Coast beach. Wiping your jacksie with a stick, would be more effective!!
Chris Bishop has been going public telling anyone who'll listen that he's going to bring property prices down.
How exactly? Amendments to the Public Works Act and RMA could take years to get through Parliament.
Any ideas?
They're going to reduce house prices by allowing interest deductability again, changing brightline 2 years, making CCCFA easier, continue to allow mass immigration. RBNZ at the same time is going to loosen up LVR restrictions, apply a DTI that has no impact & reduce the OCR in the new year...
National is clearly keen to make housing more affordable for every day kiwis... (sarc)
How did six years of Labour government work for house prices?
Same sh*t different party...
Animal spirits. Which really come into play in the next phase of a downturn, FONGO and capitalisation.
Be quick.
Still waiting to see it concretise... Found a house I like, vendors are hoping for late 2021 CV when even at -20% (probably where the market is realistically) they would still make a ~300k profit (in 5 years, what's the point working when you can generate an income doing... nothing!).
"Found a house I like"
No matter how much you like the house, if the vendor isn't motivated, or time constrained, they can take the house off the market and be unwilling to meet the market.
To minimise the costs of making an offer, make a conditional offer subject to all the usual costs to be paid if the offer is accepted (builders report, valuation report, LIM report, financing, etc), with an expiry time on the offer (say 24-48 hours). If they reject, move on. If they don't get back to you before the expiry time, then you are free to make a conditional offer on another property when the expiry time has passed (hence the requirement for an expiry time on your offer). If the vendor comes back to you after the expiry time has lapsed and you have no other offers out there (this is ESSENTIAL), then you can respond with another (lower?) offer with an expiry time.
Get your lawyer to review the first conditional offer and tell them you want to use a template for future use in the event that this offer is rejected.
Don't get into the trap of paying for costs before the offer is made (valuation report, builders report, etc) to then have your offer rejected by a non motivated seller. If this approach is done several times, then the owner occupier buyer can spend many thousands on many offers.
Owner occupier buyers tend to be more emotionally motivated in their decision making especially if costs have been paid before making the offer.
Better to find motivated sellers who are willing to meet the market.
This is how potential owner occupier buyers can have increased negotiating power in a buyer's market when there are a large number of sellers and few buyers.
No matter how much you like the house, if the vendor isn't motivated, or time constrained, they can take the house off the market and be unwilling to meet the market.
Agree, and I guess that specific property will be withdrawn in 2 or 3 months.
To minimise the costs of making an offer, make a conditional offer subject to all the usual costs to be paid if the offer is accepted (builders report, valuation report, LIM report, financing, etc), with an expiry time on the offer. If they reject, move on.
Don't get into the trap of paying for costs before the offer is made (valuation report, builders report, etc) to then have your offer rejected by a non motivated seller. If this approach is done several times, then the owner occupier buyer can spend many thousands on many offers.
Of course.
Better to find motivated sellers who are willing to meet the market.
This you never know until you contact the agent.
That's always been my problem with buying at auctions - so much cost up front before you even know if you're in the hunt.
"That's always been my problem with buying at auctions - so much cost up front before you even know if you're in the hunt."
Yes. And due to the costs paid beforehand, that is why so many bidders can get over committed in an auction. Especially if this has been done multiple times beforehand by buyers who have been unsuccessful and repeatedly outbid in a sellers market.
Exactly! Every unsuccessful auction is another $800 - $1500 out of your deposit and wasted days of admin.
Even more draining is the hours spent in the company of RE grifters....
Little wonder folk bid till it hurts......
Just understand Wingers position, everyone. Moment silence.
He has been astride the NZ Housing Ponzi for decades. Winning bigly.
Taking houses away and far from the reach of FHBs and babies.
He has again bravely mounted it, for one last Ponzi harrah, shooting for absolute squillions of profit. He is atop the Ponzi and feeling its wobble....
Yet valiantly, he believes he can pass this soggy bag to others and these mid- 2024 Useful Idiots, who were once minted every year, by the thousands. NOT ANYMORE.
Moment silence, for a now soggy and bewildered Winger.
Pray for him and his flailing largess.
You definitely don't need to feel sorry for me, puhleeease.
They'll always be money to be made in property, no matter what happens. There's plenty of bargains and great deals out there for those that do their homework.
Most out there just haven't got the nous or the balls to do it. They'll tell you, "I don't want to be rich"...hahaha...yeah right!!!
I bow before you, most high and Nousy one.
:)
I ask all to reflect, as to where we are, after this massive NZ Housing Ponzi top? now beginning to pop.
STOCK MARKET PSYCHOLOGY 101 (Market Emotion cycle/ Greed & Fear cycle) [SAVE for future reference!] : r/FluentInFinance (reddit.com)
I know about stock market psychology, I've been trading for 45 years.
Maybe change your handle to "copiuman"
You and TTP seem to be the only DGM (spruikers) still trying to remain relevant.
I couldn't care less about relevance, I care about building houses and making a dollar.
It's an interesting and generally profitable hobby, maybe you could give it a go, if you've got steel balls.
Nothing wrong with wealth, but you come across like a very weak insecure person Mr Balls of Steel.
a white horse doesn't have to say he's white
..for a short while that 'Dead Cat Bounce' definitely put the 'Dead Cat Amongst The Pigeons' on this forum!!
Christchurch still remains a very popular and happy city.
Prices continue to climb!
Plenty of opportunities!
Prices climbing does not equal opportunities, it presents urgency and panic for FHBs and speculation from the investor classes. As soon as supply catches up with demand (Bishops new rules announced today are facilitating all this at speed). Balance for good will return. The time to sell your rentals was yesterday
Opportunities in every market!
People on here keep saying the market is crashing, but they are incorrect.
Yes Auckland is problematical we all know that and has been for years.
Those investors that I know that have changed their business plans since the 10 year Brightline was introduced by Labour, have done far better than buying property to rent out.
but but but i though it was just cause of the townhouses bringing the average price down and actually prices are going up?
As each day passes by Ryman bleeds - share price down 6% in one month! Their pricing power is eroding!
The next leg down is going to mean many new entrants cannot afford to buy the unit off the family holding the bag on the old one.....
Its a Ponzi built on a Ponzi, and the market knows it, hence the share price. They would not have had this problem if they had shared profits, as they would be able to share losses... but weekly outgoings would have been so much higher most would not have had the cashflow to enter.
messy
The old age Villages/Cages, are the total Proxy for the Ponzi and the only quick "Mark to Market" - visibly available.
A great Indicator that its Down, down, down in Ponzitown.
Despite Wingers incessant and ponzi pumping gummyflapping....its going further down in Ponzitown.
“Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy.” —Perth, Scotland, 28 May 1948, in Churchill, Europe Unite: Speeches 1947 & 1948 (London: Cassell, 1950), 347
"Greed is a bottomless pit which exhausts the person in an endless effort to satisfy the need without ever reaching satisfaction." — Erich Fromm
It's those that invent, build things and employ others that make the planet tick.
Those that whine about how much money others have achieve nothing.
Chris Bishop announced today ( if it actually happens) that the govt. would......
".....work towards establishing an effective 'right to build' houses on city fringes...."
There's your clue folks. If Bishop gets his way, houses on city fringes will be worth a punt.
You got one right Winger. When the Bishop get his way, hundreds of thousands of extra houses in the Auck Burbs and the outer fringes.
Supply will be all swamping......just dont build in the swamps.
Supply and demand will be overwhelmed by SUPPLY.......Down down down in Ponzitown!
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