ANZ is the latest bank to slash its house price forecast for this year.
In its latest Property Focus report, ANZ, which is this country's biggest residential mortgage lender, cut it's house price growth forecast for this year to 1% from 3%.
ANZ's downgraded price forecast comes just one day after Westpac slashed its 2024 house price growth forecast to 2.1% from 5.8%.
"Following May's weaker than expected Real Estate Institute of New Zealand data and taking signal from the forward indicators, we've downgraded our house price forecast," the ANZ report said.
"It's worth noting that while a downgrade from 3% to 1% could give the impression that we're able to forecast the housing market with a high degree of precision, we can't and nor can anyone else."
"But we've crossed a threshold warranting a forecast update and the upside and downside risks feel more balanced around a 1% year-on-year rise this year than a 3% lift," ANZ's economists say.
"In the big picture, this is only a tweak to our forecast, and it is probably best thought of as a delay to what we were previously expecting: modest growth, with gradually falling mortgage rates offset by softening household income prospects (including job security fears), as the labour market cools."
ANZ's economists are now expecting house prices to go broadly sideways over the next few months, before rising very gradually towards the end of the year.
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37 Comments
Is it supposed to be a surprise?
It might be ... If the bank economists are getting the message that they're now seen as sales people, and if they want to be taken seriously, they need to stop!
we expect the market to fall another 0.2% yawn
Slashed? reminds me of the Crocodile Dundee movie...... That's not slashed.....
we expect the market to fall another 0.2% yawn
Forecasted with such precision. Just done to impress the impressable.
Never a negative growth forecast of course - the economists would be fired.
Jean-Claude Juncker : 'When it becomes serious, you have to lie'
what's so funny is that we are meant to forget the lies of the near past....
Quite a few have sell recs against all four in Aussie now, including the millionaires factory, someone large issed a sell CBA last few weeks.
Watch NVidia, could be start of a correction
Nvidia - up 6.76% today ..correction upwards?
The tech index is at a turning point. Will it churn up and down a bit before resuming its rocketing upwards trajectory - or will it churn up and down and then plummet in a sizeable correction? The Chinese are only a year or two behind NVDA's AI products right now. Harder times and narrower margins incoming
Never a negative growth forecast of course - the economists would be fired.
If your model is trained on a data set that doesn't have negative growth relationships, then you can never expect a negative growth forecast.
Forecasting 101.
Lol. These banks have their fingers right on the pulse.
Another Bank has been reading Int.co comment section.
Hardly. The quantity and value of new bank loans for residential real estate will determine the observed outcomes.
It will...but no one bank determines the market direction...nor the other impacts across the economy.
An individual bank may have intentions re the RE market but they are as subject to outside events as anyone else....shit happens.
Yeah int.co comments are the canary in the coal mine. lol.
Typical circlejerk comment frothing up the econ101 dropouts “we called it boi’s!”😂
whatever happened to humour?
Even B&T boss takes a 300k hit on reg. capital value (Council valuations are way too high).
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/real-estate-patriarch-sells-own-home-for…
no it was two sites... he got 50% of rv
Oh wow, that’s the buy of the year. Or is it just the sign of the times. RE is going down at a rapid rate of knots.
Looks like it might be about to slip into the ocean in the next 20 years. I wonder if it is insurable?
It does look like a bargain
Don't spook the horses...
Everyday is1 April for kiwi property festival
My pick is very little HPG until Labour are back in government. Their terms in govt coincide with extra govt spending into much need infrastructure which requires bodies to be employed. The trick for Labour is to get that spending on replacement infrastructure locked in asap so National cannot them come in and in a fit of pique scrap it. $551million for 2 purpose built ferries was a steal.
one way of reducing the escalating costs for the portside infrastructure, particularly in Wellington, was to enable legislation allowing for Kings Wharf in Wellington to be the Interislander terminal. Because Greater Wgtn were plonkers, the need to upgrade Kaiwharawhara was then part of the cost escalation. Unfortunately media seem unable to differentiate between the fixed ferry build costs from those of the terminals which do need replacing as they’re 60+ years old.
anyway, Labour’s spending goes into the economy, people have money, houses get bought.
I have on my TM watchlist a house that was listed a week before ours which has not dropped their price below $639,000. They bought in 2021 for $700,000 so its obvious they can only afford to “lose” that much of their initial deposit put into the house.
We yoinked our house from sale after 102 days. Secured a tenant within 3 days of advertising. Still have to top up the bills $1,000 per month but with much higher earnings in Australia, $500 each per month isn’t much.
Hmm so you are propping it up by $1k a month, plus losing out on any investment gain on your equity (if you have any?). Isn’t that a big gamble on future capital gain compared to selling?
It is a gamble but nobody buying in Wellington. Our other property tenant wants to buy that house and discussions are ongoing with that.
not too bothered sending $ back to NZ. We can afford it.
The trick for Labour is to get that spending on replacement infrastructure locked in asap
Instead Labour got lost fantasising about cycleways and light rail to nowhere.
Where is the growth going to come from in the back half of the year? We are going into winter with the HPI declining so it’s hard to see how there would even be a hint of positivity prior to the usual summer selling season which usually provides a bit of a bump.
Crikey! Only 25 comments on a property article! What's going on?
Long weekend coming. Better things to plan, do and enjoy :-)
the cat is so dead and doesn't even bounce any longer.
Brilliant!
What generally triggers a flurry of comments is the usual spruikers popping up with insane alternative reality takes on a crashing housing market. Like… 10% gains this year, be quick, no one regrets buying a house, prices won't/can't drop yadda yadda.
That dartboard in the ANZ lunch room is getting a solid workout.
it's just, when banks says A, market usually goes B.
only 1 auction yesterday (4 City Sales apartments) across the Auckland region compared to 90+ last Wednesday?? A data glitch or mass withdrawls?? I think we should be told....
Any increase in house prices will increase the amount you have to borrow, which is going to offset any interest rate reduction. It also means buyers will have to have a bigger deposit, or they will be forced to pay the low equity interest rate penalty. If the bank wont lend to you to buy a house at today's prices on high interest rates, its also not going to give you a loan to buy an even more expensive house on lower interest rates - as the monthly servicing cost will be the same.
NZ needs both house price falls AND interest rate drops, in order for people to be able to get a 20% deposit and the financing to buy a house.
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