Westpac has revised down its house price growth forecast for this year, and it's a substantial drop.
In the bank's latest Economic Bulletin, Westpac's Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold said the bank's economists were now expecting house price growth of just 2.1% for 2024, down from their previous forecast of 5.8% growth.
The report said the latest, lower forecast reflected recent trends.
"Since August 2023 we have had a relatively positive view of the house price cycle, in that we have expected house prices to outperform inflation more generally," Eckhold said.
"The key driver of this view has been the historically strong population growth seen since early 2023."
"This population growth, which has coincided with a slowdown in the construction sector, has led to pressure on rental markets that we expected would ultimately push house prices higher with the usual lag."
"House prices did pick up slightly from around May 2023 until the General Election and we did see some modest house price growth in the first quarter of 2024 that was close to expectations. However, momentum in the housing market has decidedly slowed since around the middle of last year," said Eckhold.
"Indeed, growth in house sales has been flagging in recent months, just as we would have expected some resilience in market activity based on our previous house price forecast."
However Westpac's economists are expecting house price growth to pick up to 6% over 2025.
The comment stream on this story is now closed.
•You can have articles like this delivered directly to your inbox via our free Property Newsletter. We send it out 3-5 times a week with all of our property-related news, including auction results, interest rate movements and market commentary and analysis. To start receiving them, register here (it's free) and when approved you can select any of our free email newsletters.
145 Comments
When will bank economists realise that the market is crashing until the numbers stack up for either investors or FHB’s?
An investor is better off in a TD, a FHB is saving money and not putting capital at risk by renting.
Banks seem unable to ever call or predict falls, I wonder why......
It's only on the ride down do you discover how many "Flat Earth Believers" are involved in lending.
Why are bank economist predictions are never accompanied by #contains advertising? Seems like an abdication of advertising standards? Just because no money changes hands doesn't mean this generic sales pitch isn't designed to influence customer behavior for corporate profit..
.
Or you could say its a good time to get in the market for FHB when the chances are in a year or 2 house prices will be competitive again.
You will get more for you money now than in 2 years times, if you can handle some pain.
oh dear.
Rookieinvestor is a rookie interest member BTW
Matt_B .... All experts start as Rookies.
But most rookies are fairly circumspect in their predictions ... (as are most experts btw.)
Could you run some figures by to help understand?
When i looked to buy a house 2 years ago i had a 15% deposit, i was told by the bank serviceability was the issue with borrowing what i wanted.
this time with higher interest rates, but lower house prices, i had a 20% deposit and the bank would lend me what i needed.
I've been trying to get out of renting for approx 6 years now, in late 2023 it became possible, although still not easy.
trying to compete with investors as a single income FHB was impossible.
Which also begs the question, if a single income can afford a 3 bedroom house in a decent area, how are prices not affordable.
In 2 years, if interest rates are 5.5% (ANZ forecast OCR at 4.25 by sept 2025) the loan on a 550K house will cost $504 a week to service with an approx rent of 550$ ($28,600/year).
That's a yield of ( 26,208 / 550000 ) 5.2%...decent investment?
No rates?
No insurance?
No maintenance?
So you want to be one of those slum lords that do zero upkeep on a property?
Fans
Heat pump
Fixed water costs
Vacant periods
Its a long list.
And the one that's always forgotten ... Management costs! ... Even if you do it yourself, it still costs!
Yes it is a long list!
And yet Landlords are called greedy?
Greed - intense and selfish desire for something, especially wealth, power, or food.
Can I ask why you decided to call yourself "The Man" on this website? Does it have anything to do with how much wealth you have amassed through being a landlord? You repeatedly say is is not an easy path to riches, so it must have taken an intense desire to get to where you are now, right?
Lol. Someone I know well called me “The man” .
First name I thought of when non de pluming!
Nothing to do with Land lording or investing.
No not an easy path to riches at all, but when mates were at the pub socialising I was renovating, even worked after 9-5 job a long time ago.
If you have the right mind set, have the desire and get good advice if you arent sure, you will do well.
Moaning snd groaning about things will not get anyone ahead.
as an investment its generally considered a yield (income per annum) around 5% of the property price is decent.
It's simplified, of course there are other costs involved. there are also other gains involved.
Do you expect a full financial report of the feasibility of affordability of FHB compared to investors?
No, its speculation... all of it is, all i'm doing is highlighting where things could be it 2 years, as an alternate argument to what seems narrow minded.
I didn't say anything like that so I don't know why you would assume .....
Just to clarify - this is all based off the rental yield in 2 years time?
Can you provide numbers for the first 2 years, before you reach a 5% yield?
lets say serviceability only ... 550K house @ 20% deposit is a 440K loan.
7% at 440K is $675/week, if that's what you can afford....
In 2 years when rates are 5.5% $675/week will get you a 515K loan.
today you can afford 550K house, in 2 years you can afford a 640K house (515K/0.8).
House prices will be higher, if interest rates are lower, does that make sense to you?
House prices will be higher, if interest rates are lower, does that make sense to you?
Watch and learn Grasshopper.... Rookie mistake number 1
Its not a mistake if it hasn't happened....
If your numbers stack up it is very decent investment.
It will only be inverted if the house price drops by a further 10% in the next two years. Something that many on here seem convinced is going to happen. Hence the mindless ridicule you are receiving.
For my part I think we are looking at flat nominal prices for the next two years much like 2009-2011. But even if prices came down 10% in 24 months, you will be absolutely fine if your intention is a home for 5 years plus.
i agree with what you think here.
if prices drop 10%, i will still be fine.
but a lot of people will be in so much trouble there would be bigger problems.
i also think the will stay relatively flat, a few ups and a few downs.
Rookieinvestor, you have to understand that Interest's comment section is a hate club towards people making money via RE, from people who missed out.
Hmm I see, well you cant help that can you.
I don't mind TBH, its good to be critical about other peoples ideas, and more so your own.
Those who have made money from property - via rental yield, capital appreciation and through managing debt competently - are a small minority here. (I guess they've got more exciting things to do with their time.)
But many of those who missed the boat - especially those who sacrificed the opportunity to get on the property ladder just a few short years ago - now feel aggrieved.
For sure, it's become much harder to get a footing on the property ladder now. (Median house prices have risen 60-70 percent since 2016.) People group here anonymously to let off steam. That's okay by me - I'm getting used to it - despite the daily chorus of doom and gloom.
TTP
ToThePoint, thats why I reregistered.
there are just too many posters who are anti anyone who own property, when they do not!
I appreciate most will think I am a Big Head or something along those lines, but that does not worry me at all!
I am only posting the realism of what you can do if you invest in property, admittedly I have done this basically always in ChCh rather than Auckland etc.
This site is meant to be to assist people make better financial decisions, but the majority of posters seem to get some satisfaction and comfort from continually putting down property owners and investors/speculators who keep the economy ticking over.
And there we have it - true to form the comedy has started 'investors/speculators who keep the economy ticking over'
What a total pile of shit as always - The Man (Banned), The Man 2 (Banned), The Man 3 - whatever your name your narcissism always shines through.
Banned because?
I post positivity and try to help people make better financial decisions?
If I was posting about how bad everything is I would get all these thumbs up.
All if you do not agree with what I post then do not react!
That's a pretty sad comment from you Yves, but typical of your narcissism I guess. I'd bet that a lot of the people you put in your "hate club" are actually doing ok financially.
Personally I'd love to see property prices to continue to fall and not for my own good. For the betterment of society now and in the future. If you want to hamstring future buyers so that you can make some money yourself with no regard to the negative consequences that's having then that says more about your character than the ones you're trying to criticize. In the past you have called people that can't afford their own homes losers which says it all really.
It's funny the amount of new accounts that have started recently on here that are doing their best to justify house price increases. Goes in cycles I guess. I'm in IO's camp and am waiting to see what happens once yield curves revert to normal again. They've been a reliable indicator of recessions in the past. I don't see things in this country turning around for quite a while. And if anyone thinks that it'll magically come right once the RBNZ starts dropping rates, they're dreaming.
on 550k 30 year fix at 5.5% i get Your repayments will be: $722 per week
are you playing interest only?
550K house at 30% deposit for an investor is 385K
Redcows: "Could you run some figures by to help understand?"
Rookeinvestor doesn't need too.
Folksy wisdom like, "houses double in value every 10 years", and "no one ever lost money buying property" does all the heavy lifting for them in NZ.
I don't think its wise to rent forever, so buy when you can afford and when there's a discount.
Investment, different story.
My question is? Why have our Government(s) and RBNZ allowed a low risk, high profit environment for banks to operate in. This is reflected in NZ Banks pro house inflation messaging (using MSM / RE to voice their message)
Currently NZ Banks leading to houses vs business is approx. 65% to 35% in other developed economies these figures are reversed, more leading for business.
The property leading favouritism needs to stop for NZ to move ahead.
Who said pirates ain't smart? (Well said Mr Teach. Well said indeed!)
Not just lending on houses though. Also the tax treatment!
Funny how successive NZ governments continue to work hard to enrich overseas banks, ay?
What is the saying - never attribute to malice that which can be explained by incompetence. I'm more inclined to think the government of the day made a mistake and it just got away from them. The first mistake was compounded by the next mistake and then the next.
A better question would be "When will bank economists stop with the sales talk?"
And perhaps an even better question might be: When will kiwis realise public statements from bank economists are really a sales pitch?
When will anyone realise that house price does not equal value, and price growth like we have had in the very short time frame of two decades has accomplished us nothing.
Ideally the numbers should not stack up for investors at all, especially if those numbers are capital gains. Those gains are a result of too much money chasing too little what... which in any other scenario is inflation and not desired. It only adds more instability to financial stability requiring more reactive and insane monetary policy. This maintaining stability of the financial system appears to require instability everywhere else. You would think 87 was enough to warn us yet all we have done is double down - Asian Financial Crisis, dotcom boom, GFC - doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result... insanity. Because all we have now is a combination of all of these and more.
But maybe this is the expected result, at least for those in charge, just not for the masses.
Lol
my reckon was +2-3% in 2024. Too high! I am now pretty sure prices will be negative in 2024. The key question is whether it’s marginally negative (-1 / -2%) or something more significant (-5 to -10%)
Right now I would wager around -3 / -4%
accounting for inflation and exchange rates this year - maybe -10%, given for the last 2 years on that basis its been closer to -25%+
Saying its increased or increasing at all is like giving someone a $5 payrise whilst what he wants to buy just went up to $10 and taking $2 out his back pocket.
Be interesting running exchange rates and inflation against all assets/investments/savings…not just property, surely not many would look tidy
It is the mortgage that gets eaten away in real terms by inflation. Not the Owners equity.
Inflation is a good thing for indebted asset owners. Even if the high interest rates to counter it are not.
100%.
In the long run....
Lol. It is a nice theory and a failed science. It is only a means to justify inflation and encourage more borrowing.
Yield curves stil inverted. History shows greatest asset price destruction happens in the period after they normalise. It is possible that the falls we have witnessed the past few years are just the covid froth being evaporated before the real recession/price drops happen. Another 30% drop (in either nominal or real terms) is quite possible in my view - obviously not a certainty as I don’t know how ridiculous any intervention might be to prevent this - but if this happens, our economy/quality of life/living standards will be even worse than they are now as a result of this intervention (eg more money printing, more inflation, more cost of living issues, more housing affordability issues, more welfare required to support those marginalised)- so asset prices might be saved/protected , but at what cost to the average NZ’er?!
The best thing that could happen to this country (and I’ve argued this a while) is a significant drop so that the financial and social instability is removed from our economy that has resulted from house prices that are priced too high restive to our productivity/incomes - the sooner/faster this happens, the better the outcomes will be for the nation in the long run (using a utilitarian moral/ethical lens through which to view the problem).
Sustsining/protecting high house prices is going to do far more harm than good for the majority of people (eg including those who only own one home who have children who want to buy but can’t)
What type of intervention could stop falls? only REALLY cheap mortgage rates...... I don't think 5.75% is going to stop falls at all.
.inflating debt away as a last resort? As one waiting to buy am concerned they try this.
Is it land or houses?
Won't happen in any serious way until our tax system is overhauled and the RBNZ changes it capital ratios.
Wont happen in any serious way until we change our belief systems, conditioning towards economic growth, flawed metrics and the whole getting materialistically, monetarily rich. It is all a fear based, divisive game and ultimately we must change the rules of the game.
Given they have already increased 2% since the start of the year, the swing back would need to be at least negative 5% for the next 6 months for your wager to win.
I’d take that bet any day of the week.
You need to update your data, it's +2.3% yoy according to REINZ, but 2024 has been negative for a couple of months now:
Thanks for the irrelevant YoY data when the terms of the wager was calendar year. Yep it has gone down the last couple of months … prob about -0.1% each month.
You doomers are picking it’ll go down an order of magnitude larger than that... -1.0% MoM till EoY looolll. Deluded hive mind
The HPI for NZ is down -2.9% over the last 3 months
Are the being intentionally misleading with their forecasts or do their models just suck? 5.8% growth this year was never going to happen
Vested interest in keeping up some FOMO, even if they sound ridiculous. If banks collectively confirmed future downward track of nominal prices, they can Not sell as many mortgages, as if they pretend to believe in ever increasing prices. As they have intimate and timely real time data on spending patterns,Business receipts,wage and salary movements, unemployment and beneficiary receipts,rate of increase in loan credit card and personal loan delinquency,in fact ,all relevant data way eay ahead of time ,of RBNZ and Stats nz, etc, there is no way in hell that they are uninformed. So it is deliberate and misleading. Vested interest ,marketing angles for mortgages and other debt,but not truthful.
Yes bank economist forecasts are more profit benefiting propaganda than anything - they would get fired if they ever published truely negative forecasts eg even during a financial crisis. Why they are even given a platform is quite bizarre as all they do is cloud the minds of the people who assume that they are trustworthy. When in reality their forecasts only exist to benefit/protect their own bottom line.
It’s like used car salesman telling that their cars are great and will never breakdown! Such as buy a house using us as prices will never fall!
Well said, I_O.
We need to get this message out loud and clear.
If banks struggle to get mortgages wouldn't that put pressure on them to lower interest rates ASAP?
If they don't hold their net interest margin relative to competitors there share price will fall.....
they would have to get cheaper funding or take less margin .....
they will protect net interest margin hard, if it falls its very hard to push back up in a competitive landscape.
They can’t just drop rates because nobody (or less people) is/are taking their lending!
They have to manage their interest rate risk by matching their debt and credit obligations to balance their portfolio (that is what they’ve lent at given interest rates over given durations with what they’ve borrowed to fund their lending at given rates over given durations - and this has to balance otherwise they create interest rate risk which if it isn’t managed correctly risks defaulting/bankruptcy if their interest rate forecasts are incorrect for future events).
So no because of the mandates set by the RBNZ for prudent lending and interest rate risk, they can’t just drop their own mortgage rates - to do this they need to source cheaper funding first externally (which currently doesn’t exist).
SBS bank offer a substantially lower rate for 3 year mortgage, at 1 point it was 5.99%
I'm sure that enticed a few borrowers.
That's me. I'm 32 (FHB) and have a high income but have been waiting on the side lines for years. I fully expect prices to fall further but at some point you have to get on with life and stop micro analysing economic data and reading far too many comments on interest.co.nz every week.
I love the house I've bought, it's close to town, double garage etc. From my observation decent houses are holding up quite well - its all the poorly planned townhouses and run down junk that is cratering the average value.
SBS' 5.99% rate & +$10k cashback made the decision for me. I'm paying about 40% more in interest/rates/insurance than I would to rent the place (more if you count opportunity cost of interest on my deposit) but ce la vie. The added cost is worth it from the perspective of peace of mind and being able to put down roots.
Congratulations!
RookieInvestor: "If banks struggle to less mortgage wouldn't that put pressure on them to lower interest rates ASAP?"
Not if they can make better money lending it elsewhere. Or even leaving it with the RBNZ who are currently paying 5.5%. But buying NZ debt (bonds) at current rates makes sense too (in that when i-rates do fall, those bonds are worth more).
But if they don't sell as many new mortgages they keep the current ones. Just why would they worry?
Their current share prices reflect growth. No growth = falling share price = CEOs being replaced.
doesn't matter how much people need a house if they can't afford one, they will be living in their car, or crowding into existing housing with mates or other families.
prices have a way to fall yet
The walk back of property price increases for 2024 continues. So many of these economists continue to get things wrong. Many seem to be out of touch with what is unfolding globally and locally and the resulting impacts it is having on NZ.
It's advertising. Translted, "Hurry, hurry, buy now, it'll never be cheaper."
Do we really expect their models to be anything other than growth? If 60% of your lending book is residential mortgage you definitely need to keep hyping the market no matter what. Congratulations to those who called the post election dead cat bounce, you were right. We are now back on the downward trend and only an external shock away from complete capitulation.
I'd also look at household income increases along with the house price.
Agreed.
But from what I can figure out, those " household income increases" for FHB, OOs have been largely eaten away cost of living increases in many other places. Resident property "Investors" with low debt / asset ratios and higher incomes are a completely different story and may re-enter the market with a vengeance if the RBNZ doesn't move LVRs and DTIs quickly enough (which they never do!) ... (Edited: Come to think of it - we might see future MPS from the RBNZ come with not just changes to the OCR but also with 'companion' changes to LVRs and DTIs. Finger's crossed.)
Christchurch will buck the trend because its inhabitants are so happy.
You are correct, Ex Agent, prices in ChCh have not been dropping, there are just not so many buyers able to buy at the moment!
We realise it is not the same throughout NZ, and there are tough times for a lot of property owners.
Was just reading an article from an Australian newspaper about how rental prices have increased significantly over there and how it was not fair!
It is actually no better in Oz than here and will not get any easier as Australian house prices are higher than NZ due partly to the taxes that the Ozzies have on property.
If these taxes were ever introduced here, lookout as house prices and rental costs will escalate.
To be fair house prices in Christchurch have always languished so one would not expect too much volatility. Those who had the nous to buy investment properties in Auckland and who held them long term have made huge capital gains.
I wouldnt say languished!
I would say ideal for owner occupiers and previously investors and now speculators!
Too many nowadays expect everything go be given to them without doing the work or looking for opportunity.
Chch is a far nicer place to live than Auckland without the major problems.
Just imagine how wealthy you would be if you lived in Christchurch and had all your rentals in Auckland. Managed of course. It would be scary to think about. You obviously love money so I am sure you will never think about it.
Ex Agent, no wouldnt have rentals in Auckland at all.
Too far to travel to do any improvements, rental return is poor and can not make the % profit that I can in Chch!
I do love being financially comfortable, Not love of money, more that I enjoy the lifestyle and the enjoyment of buying right and improving!
Everyone on here says banks are terrible at making predictions but yet they all think their predictions are better?
aren't the banks the ones that have the data to actually justify them, or the experience to understand?
why aren't the predictors on here working at the banks if they are better at it?
They are not predictions they are what they hope will happen.
As children, bank economist were taught to make a wish and it will come true.
No, the banks don't make impartial predictions based on data. They make predictions based on what will help them achieve more profits, they are not impartial.
Bank economists excel formula =IF(house price growth in cell C3 > 0 then publish, but if C3<0"must be wrong" so change assumptions until cell C3 is positive)
They don't use Excel, they use computer code. here's an excerpt:
true = 0;
Loop
hype(market)
until
true;
Still sticking with 3 to 4% gains in Tauranga. Those bank economists have revised their numbers downward at least 2 or 3 times since I made it.
Predicted house price growth ? 😂
who believes this propaganda ?
Heavens I think astrologers have more idea about property price forecasts...... Do you think there is anyone in NZ who believed their previous forecasts?
Unfortunately yes because MSM keeps wheeling out bank economists on their breakfast tv shows as if they're the great Messiah. Viewers believe what they're fed.
I understood to be an economist they must give very wrong prediction therefore we could operate opposite way 🤣
i will predict the house price will drop 7- 10% this year.
That will require a 2% drop each month as we are already up +2% for the year. Could happen I suppose but it is a bold call.
I doubt there are too many investors actually buying to rent out at the moment.
This is going to put pressure on prices and a shortage of rentals and therefore there are going to be quite a number of prospective tenants not able to get a rental.
Landlords are far less likely to take some people on nowadays unless they check out totally.
I would say a lot of the previous investors could now be called speculators, as opportunities pop up!
Rental listings up 40 percent across country in three months to May
"the number of rental seekers has increased by just 2.5 percent."
"An Auckland Ray White property manager, Shane Ryder, said it had been noticeably harder to rent out homes since April."
When we put a property up for new lease anytime of year, there are that many that want them!
We are very thorough with the screening of any tenants that we actually show through, there are plenty that you would not want.
Rents for new rentals this past year have increased up to $100 per week
Who cares about your amazing (too amazing to be true) personal experience. The actual data says something different.
He's been booted off here before and is back for another go. Usual me, me, me posts from him. Seems to think his anecdotal experience is more important than any statistical data out there.
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/98416/sales-around-third-properties…
(Check the comments)
Now that investors can buy existing properties, they should be back in the market. There are much better yields on older properties than there is on brand new ones. So you might actually be able to find something that is cashflow neutral if not positive (with a 40% deposit). As an example, an older unit in my local area will rent for a 5.7% yield while a brand new unit will rent for a 3.8% yield.
At least until the prices of those brand new units fall to match the price of the older units, and going by the surge in listings of recently completed 2 bedroom townhouses in my area, that won't take long. There are four townhouse development projects underway on the street over from me - the first to complete earlier in the year sold all bar one, which is currently for sale with a $50k price reduction. The second development across the road from it has only sold one out of four so far. I wouldnt want to be the developers of numbers 3 and 4 due to hit the market later in the year!
The Man3: "I doubt there are too many investors actually buying to rent out at the moment."
So what are investors buying for then?
When they increased the Brightline to 10 years, many investors decided it wasnt worth buying anything to rent out with low yields, 10 year Brightline and losing the right to claim the legitimate interest paid from your tax!
The business plan changed to speculation!
This is like listening to stock market 'experts' advising suckers not to buy after the market tanks and is bouncing around a bottom, when smart people know that the best time to buy is when the 'experts' say sell.
There's nothing like being a contrarian.
Are you speculating that we've reached the bottom?
No one knows where the bottom is. Yes, I've bought some land and got a massive discount, around 30%. I've been through several recessions, and they don't last forever.
What does it say about floods on the LIM
It says nothing about flooding. It's elevated, got terrific north-facing view, is 4k from one of NZ's biggest shopping centres, there's a ton of water under the place for my bore, adjacent to motorways, near to a future 422 apartment retirement village, and hundreds of acres owned by a Fletchers consortium. And there's a lot more going on than that out West
If there was thing going on between your ears you'd be sussing it out. But as Nathan Rothschild once observed...."buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets".
This amazing property just keeps getting better and better each time you describe it and you got it at 30% discount.
Given you're pushing everyone to buy in the same area can you post some links to similar properties that meet these criteria your amazing property has also selling at a 30% discount?
What sort of idiot is selling this surefire bet? Why aren't they holding and making a killing like you?
Well actually my wife found this particular property. She's quite canny, and reckons this one will be the best property we've ever owned, which is quite a few.
The last time she found a property I wasn't that keen on it, but succumbed to her charms and purchased it. We sold it for just under $2m more than we paid for it.
Which I think you'll agree, is not too bad.
I could write screeds about the research I've done on that area, but I'm afraid you guys will have to DYOR.
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/us-buyer-snaps-up-luxury-home-with-its-o…
Wow, now you bought at a 30% discount. This amazing flood plain buy just keeps getting better Wingman.
What sort of fool would sell to you at 30% discount?
I'm calling the floor. The bottom was June 2023 and we are up about 2.5-3% since then depending on your measure. I suspect we might see some contraction but not that much. interest rate cuts are imminent and this will arrest the fall.
Currently that's exactly where it was, anything else is a guess.
Surely not mate, called the time to buy back in August to October 2023 and got blasted on here by some retired clown.
70 mortgagee sales on TradeMe today, I think that number is going to keep rising.
So you reckon the bubble we had pre-covid and the bubble on the bubble during covid has re-set itself?
Never mind job losses, reduced hours, liquidations, rates, insurance inflations, cost of living inflation?
Or our brightest being replaced with uber drivers with minimal income.
Can't see how the bottom could be in.
True of course but heck don't buy if they are still falling (and look at the masses of propeties for sale at presnt) wait until all the puff is gone and people at a bearbeque start saying " things are looking better". No way we are there yet.
When they start talking about house prices going up at the BBQ, you've missed the boat.
No one I know is talking about increases so the boat is still over the Horizon , as EVERYTHING is falling, except the 7 properties around you in riverhead.......
I don't live in Riverhead but I own a few acres there. Everything in Riverhead is selling. I've already posted a huge list of why that's happening, so it might be a surprise to you, but it's no surprise to me.
I've been tinkering with property for decades, and this one is the most promising yet.
Yea well my one is more promising. I can’t tell you exactly where it is but I paid $1.3m last year for it and I’ve been told by my wife's hamster breeder that it’s worth at least $7m now. Don’t listen to the data or your gut, me and you are onto a sure thing!
Houses aren't shares, plenty of time for people to get their snouts in if/when desired if prices start moving up again long term.
I am assuming from your name you are in my hometown of Kerikeri? The market looks pretty grim up there. I expect because of the brynderwyns being closed. Once it re-opens the backlog of housing stock can start to be cleared. I feel sorry for anyone selling up there at the moment.
Brynderwyns are just a few ks of several hundred ks of third rate crumbling road. Don't hold your breath.
I'm not sure why economist's bother making predictions on house prices. Currently they make a prediction , then change it, then change it again and then still turn out to be wrong - doesn't do their credibility any good . Better to make a prediction and stick to it or better still make no prediction at all.
It's so amusing seeing banks update their forecasts about 3 months after it's already been talked about.
Scummy Liars, they don’t even have the courage to report the inevitable negative decline.
Don’t worry Westpac, even the slowest of people will figure it out eventually…..
wow, that would have got big kahuna $$$ at the peak....
Surely a developer will knock the old house down.
Crazy accepting that price for it, mustve had something wrong with it?
Price probably not important to them so took anything?
I wouldve bought it at that money, improved and onsold.
It was in the origional 1971 condition. I guess you could spend $300,000-$600,000 to modernize it to live in it and/or on-sell.
Funny, everytime someone posts the new real prices that houses are being sold at someone like the man comes in with a comment about how there must be something wrong with it. It is literally too hard for them to even imagine the possibility of a crashing real estate market in New Zealand, even when the actual facts are there for everyone to see.
The actual facts are,
3.9% over 12 months
1.1% over 6 months
-2.2% over 3 months
Hardly seems like a crash and more like the expecting housing cycle in these times, as of now the crash was in 2022/2023 (-16%)
Looks like the downward price trend is picking up some steam!
depends how you look at it and how narrow your mind is.
prices are up since the bottom of the market.
Narrow minded thinking would assume we reached the bottom of the market.
Me too.
New baseline for Auckland. Unless you're paying less than half the RV price you're being ripped off.
All the property 'experts' here telling us about Great Depression 2 coming up....they've probably never owned more than one property in their entire lives.
You state this like it’s a bad thing….
a lot of people suffered during the great depression.
if you think that's a good thing.....
WTAF?
It's certainly a bad thing if you want to make money.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/former-anz-boss-david-hisco-doubles…
6%? Lol
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.