The average value of New Zealand homes continued to increase in February but the rate of value growth is declining, suggesting a possible turn in the market.
According to the CoreLogic House Price Index, the average value of New Zealand homes was $930,495 at the end of February, up from $928,184 in January and $924,489 in December 2023.
However the rate of growth is slowing with the national average value up by just 0.3% in February from 1.6% growth three months earlier.
CoreLogic's housing values are calculated on a three month rolling basis, which means the February figures are based on selling prices over December/January/February, while the January figures are based on selling prices over November/December/January.
The fact that the positive value growth rate has slowed to almost to almost zero suggests there's a strong possibility that average values themselves could start to decline over the next few months, not just the rate of growth, if current market price trends continue.
CoreLogic described the housing market as soft in January and said that trend had extended into February.
"Given that mortgage rates remain high and property sales volumes through January remained at near record lows, buyers and sellers are still taking their time and this is flowing through to more subdued value growth," CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said.
"For new entrants to the housing market, there are still significant challenges in terms of saving the deposit and satisfying loan serviceability criteria."
"Investors are also facing challenges from high mortgage rates too, while even existing owner-occupiers looking to move up the ladder still need to assess their finances closely," Davidson said.
"While the Official Cash Rate remains on hold for now, the risk of further rises in the short term hasn't dissipated altogether, and the likelihood of Official Cash Rate cuts aren't on the table for the foreseeable future either."
"This will mean shorter term fixed mortgage rates, such as the one and two year loan, could remain elevated for a while yet," Davidson said.
The table below shows the latest estimated average dwelling values in all main urban districts and their changes over three and 12 months.
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| CoreLogic NZ House Price Index | |||
| February 2024 | |||
| Territorial authority | Average current value | 3 month change % | 12 month change % |
| Far North | $700,361 | 1.1% | -1.3% |
| Whangarei | $740,309 | 1.4% | -5.0% |
| Kaipara | $839,619 | 0.9% | -2.6% |
| Auckland - Rodney | $1,250,535 | 0.3% | -3.8% |
| Rodney - Hibiscus Coast | $1,168,892 | 1.3% | -3.1% |
| Rodney - North | $1,316,484 | -0.1% | -4.5% |
| Auckland - North Shore | $1,470,173 | 0.9% | -1.6% |
| North Shore - Coastal | $1,662,887 | 0.1% | -2.9% |
| North Shore - North Harbour | $1,453,550 | 1.4% | 1.9% |
| North Shore - Onewa | $1,182,963 | 1.9% | -2.3% |
| Auckland - Waitakere | $1,011,403 | 1.1% | -3.8% |
| Auckland - City | $1,485,410 | 2.0% | -4.6% |
| Auckland City - Central | $1,261,721 | 0.5% | -5.0% |
| Auckland City - Islands | $1,573,633 | 4.1% | -4.4% |
| Auckland City - South | $1,341,162 | 2.3% | -6.7% |
| Auckland_City - East | $1,852,403 | 2.8% | -3.2% |
| Auckland - Manukau | $1,175,523 | 3.5% | -0.4% |
| Manukau - Central | $906,643 | 5.1% | 0.2% |
| Manukau - East | $1,478,763 | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| Manukau - North West | $1,021,722 | 3.8% | -0.5% |
| Auckland - Papakura | $930,562 | 0.2% | -1.0% |
| Auckland - Franklin | $915,499 | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Thames Coromandel | $1,148,347 | 0.7% | -2.4% |
| Hauraki | $650,568 | 1.3% | -2.9% |
| Waikato | $761,594 | 5.5% | -2.8% |
| Matamata Piako | $691,627 | 0.1% | -3.2% |
| Hamilton | $809,031 | 0.5% | -2.2% |
| Hamilton - Central & North West | $756,268 | -0.3% | -2.5% |
| Hamilton - North East | $997,234 | 0.6% | -1.7% |
| Hamilton - South East | $749,877 | 1.0% | -1.2% |
| Hamilton - South West | $712,862 | 0.5% | -3.8% |
| Waipa | $872,036 | -1.0% | -0.1% |
| Otorohanga | $528,015 | 0.4% | -6.5% |
| South Waikato | $423,736 | 1.4% | -8.6% |
| Waitomo | $360,481 | 1.5% | -4.4% |
| Taupo | $841,387 | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Western BOP | $1,003,609 | 0.0% | -0.7% |
| Tauranga | $1,039,689 | 2.7% | -2.9% |
| Rotorua | $639,747 | -1.4% | -3.0% |
| Whakatane | $739,397 | 0.8% | 2.8% |
| Kawerau | $365,790 | -2.1% | -16.2% |
| Opotiki | $495,713 | -3.1% | -9.4% |
| Gisborne | $609,104 | 0.3% | -2.0% |
| Wairoa | $425,619 | 16.3% | 3.1% |
| Hastings | $797,255 | 0.5% | 0.8% |
| Napier | $757,145 | 1.0% | -4.1% |
| Central Hawkes Bay | $592,368 | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| New Plymouth | $714,933 | 2.1% | -1.8% |
| Stratford | $501,676 | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| South Taranaki | $438,470 | 1.1% | -0.2% |
| Ruapehu | $357,481 | -0.6% | -15.4% |
| Whanganui | $509,693 | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Rangitikei | $425,498 | -1.8% | -4.2% |
| Manawatu | $615,012 | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Palmerston North | $650,302 | 1.6% | -0.5% |
| Tararua | $422,206 | 6.5% | -0.5% |
| Horowhenua | $565,209 | -1.2% | -3.2% |
| Kapiti Coast | $815,844 | 2.7% | -3.9% |
| Porirua | $841,292 | 0.6% | 2.0% |
| Upper Hutt | $751,897 | 2.8% | -0.9% |
| Hutt | $799,855 | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Wellington City | $1,029,471 | 0.6% | -0.6% |
| Wellington - Central & South | $983,249 | -0.2% | 1.2% |
| Wellington - East | $1,138,113 | 0.7% | -2.1% |
| Wellington - North | $978,619 | 1.1% | -1.6% |
| Wellington - West | $1,152,689 | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| Masterton | $564,412 | 0.4% | -2.2% |
| Carterton | $632,757 | 2.5% | -5.0% |
| South Wairarapa | $757,026 | 2.0% | -12.7% |
| Tasman | $787,561 | 1.7% | -4.5% |
| Nelson | $783,165 | 1.4% | -3.6% |
| Marlborough | $703,095 | 1.0% | -1.9% |
| Kaikoura | $706,549 | 6.0% | 10.0% |
| Buller | $339,212 | -0.8% | 1.4% |
| Grey | $408,437 | 9.1% | 15.0% |
| Westland | $407,723 | 7.9% | 3.1% |
| Hurunui | $632,158 | 2.0% | 5.3% |
| Waimakariri | $707,284 | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Christchurch | $758,452 | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Christchurch - Banks Peninsula | $820,479 | -3.4% | -0.2% |
| Christchurch - Central & North | $863,864 | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| Christchurch - East | $594,474 | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Christchurch - Hills | $1,058,122 | -0.3% | 1.1% |
| Christchurch - Southwest | $721,235 | 1.8% | 2.8% |
| Selwyn | $836,234 | 1.2% | 1.0% |
| Ashburton | $538,736 | 1.7% | 1.9% |
| Timaru | $525,339 | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| MacKenzie | $780,944 | 5.0% | 8.5% |
| Waimate | $436,017 | 2.6% | 2.1% |
| Waitaki | $480,162 | 4.5% | 0.1% |
| Central Otago | $811,803 | 1.8% | 5.0% |
| Queenstown Lakes | $1,798,059 | 3.8% | 7.8% |
| Dunedin | $636,373 | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Dunedin - Central & North | $645,996 | 2.5% | -0.2% |
| Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal | $597,860 | 0.3% | -0.8% |
| Dunedin - South | $598,164 | -0.1% | 1.0% |
| Dunedin - Taieri | $677,490 | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| Clutha | $403,475 | 3.9% | 2.5% |
| Southland | $509,854 | 2.8% | 5.8% |
| Gore | $402,488 | -1.2% | -5.1% |
| Invercargill | $464,753 | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Auckland Region | $1,291,999 | 1.7% | -3.2% |
| Wellington Region | $915,174 | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Main Urban Areas | $1,028,744 | 1.8% | -1.8% |
| All of Aotearoa | $930,495 | 1.6% | -1.4% |
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78 Comments
Times where better for homeowners under Labour. Can someone encourage Luxon to say that house prices "can't keep going up"? Can National bring in some "stabilisation" policies to get the market moving again?
I'm starting to think National don't understand New Zealand voters at all.
One rule for me and another for thee. That must be in the bible somewhere surely.
it was great for home owners under Labour, 40% price jump for my property under Labour, and so far nothing under National.
I do urge National do something about it!
During Labour's tenure I realized an increase in equity from 25% to 74%.
I don't vote for them myself, part of me did secretly wish they'd get reelected.
Is that for real because I'm struggling to make sense of the maths.
Eg house value 100k, mortgage loan 75k and equity 25k - 25 percent equity
House value 300k, mortgage loan 75k and equity 225k - 75 percent equity
Your house would have tripled in value according to that. But it doesn't take into account any principal repayments
- Paid $210k, $160k mortgage, 24% equity.
- Sold $555k, $140k mortgage, 75% equity.
Choosing to endorse welfare handouts for property was a really poor showing on their part. Especially for a party named after the productive.
Does it feel like the collective sentiment has changed?
In my view, fear is in the air.
It's a recession when your neighbour loses his job <-- We have just moved into this stage
it's a depression when you lose yours <-- Moving rapidly towards here
Not just here either - most of the world seems to be heading backwards...
in the US a lot of big tech owners sold an un-precendented of shares in the last couple weeks. Jamie Dimon is talking the economy down.... Australia and many of the big mining countries are seeing big price and demand falls. China RE and other areas are wobbly.... warning signs flashin red.
It might be a roller coaster ride ahead with the initial huge dip approaching fast.....
In my view, fear is in the air. [Sam Bridgman-Smith; above]
Fear was in the air in March 2020 - at the time of the initial Covid lockdown......
People responded by buying houses en masse - and house prices rose significantly.
TTP
Slight difference..
at that time the government gave everyone free cash.. and the reserve bank let us borrow money almost for free with few checks and balances. all at a time when we had nothing to do but spend that money.. further they were all suggesting the future was utopia.
This time we have uncertain jobs, it's very expensive to borrow money with harsh checks, shop prices are rising fast, house prices are falling and the servicing cost of existing debt is huge
Not to mention a couple of serious wars happening, our trading partners having serious economic woes and Trump likely to be reinstalled imminently.
Oh dear, OldSkoolEconomics......
You forgot to mention i) the strong prospect of falling mortgage interest rates in the not-too-distant future, ii) the steep rise in immigration and, iii) the new coalition government's house-friendly policies/ regulations......
Also, you need to recognise that there's a chronic housing shortage in NZ - which won't be sorted anytime soon.
Historically, people veer towards tangible assets in uncertain times - including land and buildings. The outlook for property in NZ remains excellent.
TTP
Good one, this made me laugh.
Kiwis bought on mass because they were in a huge bubble of protection, totally disjointed from the rest of the world and fuelled by pumped out free money.
They believed the pumped up hype of the wealth and lifestyle story.
Some of us didn't believe it. Some of us are not hurting as much.
Hpi increasing yet median selling price decreasing.
Either someone isn't doing their job properly or buyers are lowering their house expectations more so than sellers are lowering their price expectations.
Highest proportion of FHBs on record supports this.
Or you don't understand basic statistics. More lower value terrace homes and apartments selling.
I'm pretty sure I just said that but anywho
Funny OneWoof reporting on when the all time high will be passed?
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/oneroof-house-price-report-march-2024-45…
New Zealand house prices will take less than two years to return to their post-Covid peaks from current levels, new figures suggest.
According to market projections by OneRoof and its data partner Valocity, the nationwide average property value will return to its February 2022 high of $1.098 million in the third quarter of 2025.
Would send a sniffer dog into the HQ offices.
I'd much rather keep Newshub and loose One Roof.
One Roof as a operational reporting segment is 1.3m in the hole per year. They will never change their messaging.
Those charts are hilarious. Would love if they actually detailed their assumptions - though that would require actual modelling.
One chart looks like OneRoof literally took out their red pen and just drew an upward trend which takes into account 2.5% interest rates during COVID as part of a forward projecting trend which will never happen again.
Yes it’s exactly that; just like Donald Trumps hurricane modelling, all you need is a sharpie
Note they make no mention of the ability to increase supply way above previous rates thanks to the NPS-UD, MDRS, etc ... And whatever the NACTF come up with (assuming of course they don't make supply more restrictive than current levels - which, just quietly, I think they will).
The basis used for their price forecasts is the 5-year average quarterly growth rate pre-2020.
Historical price growth extrapolation and technical price chart analysis to determine their house price forecasts.
But the property cycle is just that, a cycle. It’s not just constant lineal growth. Plus no mention of the huge shift in fundamentals- shameful analysis.
It's just a cycle.
A cycle that currently seems out of control, colliding and crashing into a crowd of property owners..
"It’s not just constant lineal (linear?) growth. Plus no mention of the huge shift in fundamentals"
Remember the commonly repeated phrase and belief that house prices double every 10 years which was based on historical house price charts? There are many who expect continued growth in house prices based on historical house price growth and house price charts.
Here is one comment:
"Been predicting 4 to 5% for like 6 months now. Clearly some people jump into the comments section before looking at the charts. Not many places in the red, looks like its already lifting to me."
Spruikers might as well retire now... all their effort has gone down the drain..
It must be really soft, as corelogic has been showing higher prices...
You’ve been so quiet since the OCR review. Hanging for dear life to any faint representative of bad news.
Sad
Beware of an increased probability of a tsunami hitting the housing market.
Can you see it might have already started? The warning signs are there, the wave is building in size. How big will it get? Some can see, most people don’t know where to look and can't see it and they don't know what they don’t know.
Your idea of bad news is purely in the eyes of the beholder. For those wanting a more rational housing market for a myriad of reasons, this is fantastic news and a good start - long may it continue.
Maybe only 5% lift this year not 10%?
Maybe, maybe not...
Lol
Did you leave the '-' out?
I thought that was a face but it's actually a minus 🤣
Been predicting 4 to 5% for like 6 months now. Clearly some people jump into the comments section before looking at the charts. Not many places in the red, looks like its already lifting to me.
Up 4% in three months in the Hutt - that’s ok!
Meanwhile, elsewhere on interest.co.nz...
Non-performing housing loans rocketed by over 10% in the past month and the non-performing housing loans ratio has now hit a 10-year-high.
Hard to see prices taking off with mortgage stress becoming more prevalent.
The time to buy is when mortgage rates are high. The smart money will be scouting around looking for a bargain.
Really? The time to buy are when yields are high. Finance 101.
There's a reason economists aren't rich...they're not practical. They reckon economists were invented to make astrologers and weather forecasters look good.
The time to buy was when the Labour economic steamroller wreaked havoc.
CONF doesn't like economist jokes so might have a problem with that comment
All the economists I know are doing very well. I can't think of any that wouldn't be in the top 5%. Note that many do not call themselves economists as that's not their core job - but it remains a large part of their training and core skills.
So I'm immune to jokes of this kind as the facts prove otherwise.
The time to buy is when mortgage rates are high.
Refreshing new take. The time to buy property was always said to be 'Yesterday!'. The tune seems to be changing, finally.
So much stock coming on to the market. North Shore of Auckland has over 1700 listings now. Haven't seen it this high for ages.
The BUILDER MUST SELL tag is on a few ads in the Mill Water RE windows.... not much will sell until prices drop another 10%, most will lag the market and we IMHO will not see much volume until next summer now. Price expectations have been kept too high by the OnWoof BS and dribble.
Going to a winter of discontent, after a mother of all budgets
60-70% of them are apartments and townhouses.
In Tor/Browns Bay there are so many projects of builders who bought big houses (for 1.7M) and turned them into townhouses, now is time to sell each for 1.1M.
From the way I see it, a freehold house price will continue to rise whereas apartment/townhouse continue to shuffle/fall
As TA would say, the market is munted.
Well spotted John, What is currently being built is to fit in with maximum bank lending, townhouses cannot be compared to a free standing house on it own section. Over time Townhouses will fall for sure, house pricing now needs categories with apartments, townhouses and free standing homes to see exactly what is happening in the market.
Wanaka has the most properties on the market over the last three years and there are nearly no apartments or townhouses.
I noticed this, 218 houses for sale, less than central Wellington.
I would definitely not be buying there without a decent discount.
Especially for sections in new subdivisions which there are a lot.
More like ~25% of all current available stock on the North Shore, if anyone is interested in the correct percentage range. ~30%, at a push, if you count cross-lease units.
So you're saying a freehold house price will continue to rise when the demand for those houses shrinks as people buy apartments and townhouses? This does not compute...
I assume you mean stand alone + freehold. Demand for those houses won't shrink.
We also have record high listings, and rapidly growing. Now seeing many that were purchased around 2021,2022 but vendors are often listing at or above what they purchased it for, so we are very stuck on price for now.
1.6 percent gain for All of Aotearoa over 3 months is strong, I have to get something fast. Will expand my preferred properties and region. The GF mightn't like what I buy but it is my money
Meanwhile, over the ditch ...
"Home values nationwide gained momentum slightly in February, rising by 0.2 of a percentage point to 0.6 per cent, their fastest growth rate in five months, bolstered by increasing optimism over potential interest rate cuts later this year, data from CoreLogic shows.
Melbourne values emerged from a three-month slump, gaining 0.1 per cent, while Sydney dwelling values increased by 0.5 per cent after drifting lower in November and December.
House prices are set to lift higher in the coming months amid improving sentiment.
Perth continued to outperform, posting a 1.8 per cent increase over the month, followed by Adelaide with a 1.1 per cent gain and Brisbane 0.9 per cent. Home values in every capital city lifted over the month, except Hobart, where they fell by 0.3 per cent."
A lot of people who have moved to Australia have rented their NZ house out while they wait for house prices to go back to 2022 prices. Big mistake.
Aussie auctions are clearing in the 70% range.... says everything buyers and sellers in general agreement re values, here, not so much.
The January QV House Price Index shows house prices mostly ticking up.
I bought land on the outskirts of Auckland in June 2023...the chart shows I've probably got it exactly right.
https://www.qv.co.nz/price-index/
It's a house price index. Not a land price index.
[chuckles] Lots of talk about 'nominal' gains ....
Bubble? Ray Dalio just posted on whether the S&P was in a bubble but note his criteria could be applied to other markets. Copied below. You could argue our residential property market is in a 'bubble.' Picking the burst is problematic.
I define a bubble market as one that has a combination of the following in high degrees:
- High prices relative to traditional measures of value (e.g., by taking the present value of their cash flows for the duration of the asset and comparing it with their interest rates).
- Unsustainable conditions (e.g., extrapolating past revenue and earnings growth rates late in the cycle when capacity limits mean that that growth can’t be sustained).
- Many new and naïve buyers who were attracted in because the market has gone up a lot, so it’s perceived as a hot market.
- Broad bullish sentiment.
- A high percentage of purchases being financed by debt.
- A lot of forward and speculative purchases made to bet on price gains (e.g., inventories that are more than needed, contracted forward purchases, etc.).
I would somewhat argue that owner occupied suburbs are way different to rental suburbs, IE Glendowie compared with Manurewa. The later are much more driven by the potential of subdivision, interest rates, interest deductability etc etc....
People will always pay more for good school zones etc etc, but the cold hard numbers should value Manurewa, and... ITS A BUBBLE
I tend to prefer actual trades to indexes or surveys. There was a house on Orakei road sold at Auction recently for $12.77m I think, and that has sold for 12m in 20/21. That's not even 3% a year, so all the Covid uplift wiped out.
$739k Whakatane absurd
Turangi nuf said
Why is $739k absurd? Even a basic kit house is $500k.
Snowboarding lodge
Future rock-climbing lodge.
What's the median household income there?
Who wants to get rich(er)? Not many here I think. I posted here a while back about major works in the pipeline in the Riverhead area. Work already underway between Kumeu and Waimauku.
https://www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/UnitaryPlanDocuments/02-r1-form-18…
value growth rate
What even is this? Is it the same as house price "growth"? Is it the same as the other value growth rate, ie inflation, that we get so upset about when it applies to other basic human well-being necessities? Why not just call it what it is - price increases or decreases?
How the hell did home prices become everyday news, become the major headline in our human lives, literally affecting the quality of living of an entire species?
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