The average value of New Zealand homes increased by 1.1% over the three months from September to November, according to the CoreLogic House Price Index.
The average value of all New Zealand dwellings was $915,448 at the end of November, up 1.1% over the three months to November. However, that's down 4.5% compared to November last year.
Average values have risen in most main centres over the three months, led by Dunedin where they were up by 2.9%, followed by Christchurch 2.0%, Auckland and the Wellington region, both up 1.2%, and Hamilton 0.7%.
Tauranga was the only major centre to show a decline at -0.6%.
The biggest increase was in Banks Peninsula where average values rose 8.3%, and the biggest decline was in Wairoa at -9.6%.
Queenstown-Lakes has the highest average dwelling values in the country at $1,731,508 and Buller the lowest at $341,899. The table below shows the average values in all urban districts and their changes over three and 12 months.
CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said there were widespread signs of an emerging upturn in November.
"However the market hasn't exactly soared away just yet," he said.
"While sales volumes have been growing steadily in percentage terms, it's from a low base so that hasn't translated to a surge in the number of deals."
"Plus, with the flow of new listings ticking along, we're seeing a flattening and perhaps even a slight lift in properties on the market in recent weeks," Davidson said.
"That may take a little heat out of prices as buyers benefit from more choice and vendors contend with a subtle rise in competition," he said.
The comment stream on this story is now closed.
| CoreLogic NZ House Price Index | ||||
| November 2023 | ||||
| Territorial authority | Average current value | 12 month change % | 3 month change % | |
| Far North | $692,490 | -2.6% | 0.3% | |
| Whangarei | $729,801 | -9.0% | -0.9% | |
| Kaipara | $832,530 | -2.8% | 4.6% | |
| Auckland - Rodney | $1,246,775 | -5.9% | 2.0% | |
| Rodney - Hibiscus Coast | $1,154,159 | -6.9% | 2.0% | |
| Rodney - North | $1,317,395 | -5.8% | 1.8% | |
| Auckland - North Shore | $1,457,620 | -3.2% | 2.2% | |
| North Shore - Coastal | $1,661,373 | -3.7% | 1.8% | |
| North Shore - North Harbour | $1,433,012 | -1.5% | 3.4% | |
| North Shore - Onewa | $1,161,299 | -3.7% | 1.6% | |
| Auckland - Waitakere | $1,000,273 | -7.7% | 1.1% | |
| Auckland - City | $1,455,955 | -7.3% | 1.1% | |
| Auckland City - Central | $1,255,747 | -4.9% | 3.5% | |
| Auckland City - Islands | $1,511,486 | -10.6% | -2.0% | |
| Auckland City - South | $1,310,751 | -7.2% | 1.1% | |
| Auckland_City - East | $1,802,891 | -8.5% | -0.3% | |
| Auckland - Manukau | $1,136,047 | -6.5% | 0.4% | |
| Manukau - Central | $862,837 | -8.3% | -1.0% | |
| Manukau - East | $1,439,868 | -4.2% | 1.9% | |
| Manukau - North West | $984,082 | -7.4% | -0.7% | |
| Auckland - Papakura | $929,107 | -5.7% | 2.8% | |
| Auckland - Franklin | $906,375 | -7.2% | -0.3% | |
| Thames Coromandel | $1,140,050 | -7.5% | 0.6% | |
| Hauraki | $642,562 | -2.4% | 1.2% | |
| Waikato | $722,058 | -6.8% | -1.1% | |
| Matamata Piako | $690,981 | -5.0% | -1.7% | |
| Hamilton | $805,125 | -3.9% | 0.7% | |
| Hamilton - Central & North West | $758,865 | -2.4% | 0.1% | |
| Hamilton - North East | $991,412 | -4.9% | 1.1% | |
| Hamilton - South East | $742,623 | -3.9% | 0.7% | |
| Hamilton - South West | $709,611 | -3.4% | 0.6% | |
| Waipa | $880,667 | 1.5% | 1.7% | |
| Otorohanga | $525,698 | -11.4% | -2.1% | |
| South Waikato | $418,093 | -7.8% | -1.8% | |
| Waitomo | $355,011 | -11.8% | -9.5% | |
| Taupo | $821,695 | -5.9% | -1.2% | |
| Western BOP | $1,003,296 | 1.6% | 1.5% | |
| Tauranga | $1,012,788 | -5.7% | -0.6% | |
| Rotorua | $648,987 | -4.7% | 1.5% | |
| Whakatane | $733,827 | 2.2% | 0.1% | |
| Kawerau | $373,627 | -8.6% | -7.2% | |
| Opotiki | $511,631 | -10.7% | -6.1% | |
| Gisborne | $607,420 | -3.3% | 4.8% | |
| Wairoa | $365,844 | -8.9% | -9.6% | |
| Hastings | $793,163 | -2.2% | 2.5% | |
| Napier | $749,699 | -4.5% | 1.6% | |
| Central Hawkes Bay | $585,700 | -3.8% | 1.3% | |
| New Plymouth | $700,329 | -4.6% | -1.4% | |
| Stratford | $487,950 | 2.3% | 1.8% | |
| South Taranaki | $433,725 | -2.4% | 0.8% | |
| Ruapehu | $359,561 | -7.1% | -3.1% | |
| Whanganui | $496,922 | -3.6% | 0.7% | |
| Rangitikei | $433,491 | -4.2% | -0.7% | |
| Manawatu | $601,324 | -5.7% | -0.6% | |
| Palmerston North | $639,900 | -4.3% | 0.5% | |
| Tararua | $396,535 | -10.9% | -1.5% | |
| Horowhenua | $571,987 | -2.2% | 3.1% | |
| Kapiti Coast | $794,673 | -9.3% | -1.9% | |
| Porirua | $836,485 | 1.2% | 4.9% | |
| Upper Hutt | $731,228 | -4.7% | 0.5% | |
| Hutt | $769,121 | -4.3% | 1.4% | |
| Wellington City | $1,023,847 | -4.6% | 0.5% | |
| Wellington - Central & South | $985,130 | -1.6% | 1.1% | |
| Wellington - East | $1,130,585 | -6.1% | 1.7% | |
| Wellington - North | $967,719 | -4.9% | 0.4% | |
| Wellington - West | $1,154,376 | -6.8% | -1.8% | |
| Masterton | $562,068 | -6.8% | 1.5% | |
| Carterton | $617,259 | -6.7% | -3.2% | |
| South Wairarapa | $742,142 | -9.8% | -1.9% | |
| Tasman | $774,768 | -5.3% | 0.2% | |
| Nelson | $772,671 | -4.9% | -0.6% | |
| Marlborough | $696,263 | -3.1% | 1.0% | |
| Kaikoura | $666,701 | 7.1% | 5.8% | |
| Buller | $341,899 | 9.8% | 3.2% | |
| Grey | $374,249 | 4.5% | 1.6% | |
| Westland | $377,882 | -2.4% | -4.5% | |
| Hurunui | $619,671 | -1.0% | 0.5% | |
| Waimakariri | $699,825 | -2.2% | 0.9% | |
| Christchurch | $746,506 | -1.1% | 2.0% | |
| Christchurch - Banks Peninsula | $849,529 | 6.6% | 8.3% | |
| Christchurch - Central & North | $847,300 | -2.6% | 1.7% | |
| Christchurch - East | $581,374 | -0.5% | 1.0% | |
| Christchurch - Hills | $1,060,988 | 0.6% | 3.9% | |
| Christchurch - Southwest | $708,703 | -0.6% | 2.3% | |
| Selwyn | $826,666 | -1.0% | 3.0% | |
| Ashburton | $529,810 | 0.1% | -0.3% | |
| Timaru | $519,948 | 2.3% | 3.3% | |
| MacKenzie | $743,933 | 1.5% | -2.8% | |
| Waimate | $424,983 | -0.3% | -3.0% | |
| Waitaki | $459,296 | -7.0% | -1.4% | |
| Central Otago | $797,654 | 2.3% | 1.2% | |
| Queenstown Lakes | $1,731,508 | 2.6% | 3.4% | |
| Dunedin | $627,329 | -3.1% | 2.9% | |
| Dunedin - Central & North | $630,334 | -5.0% | 2.5% | |
| Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal | $596,182 | -3.4% | 1.8% | |
| Dunedin - South | $598,633 | -2.1% | 2.8% | |
| Dunedin - Taieri | $662,461 | -1.8% | 3.5% | |
| Clutha | $388,205 | -0.4% | -0.8% | |
| Southland | $495,957 | -0.1% | -0.6% | |
| Gore | $407,340 | 3.3% | 5.8% | |
| Invercargill | $458,151 | 0.4% | -0.1% | |
| Auckland Region | $1,270,138 | -6.5% | 1.2% | |
| Wellington Region | $901,387 | -3.9% | 1.2% | |
| Main Urban Areas | $1,011,083 | -5.0% | 1.2% | |
| All of Aotearoa | $915,448 | -4.5% | 1.1% | |
- You can have articles like this delivered directly to your inbox via our free Property Newsletter. We send it out 3-5 times a week with all of our property-related news, including auction results, interest rate movements and market commentary and analysis. To start receiving them, register here (it's free) and when approved you can select any of our free email newsletters.
64 Comments
5-10% up in 2024? A little more than inflation, and not enough to get building going again as the cost of building will still be higher than finished value? It's a pretty good bet, buy now....
Buyiing early 2024, looking now as it takes months to find the right place
Housing market is firing up faster than I thought. (No doubt there're others also surprised.)
Let's hope RBNZ sticks to its word and keeps the loud pedal on interest rates: "higher for longer" ought to be the mantra. As tough as this may be for some mortgagors, letting interest rates fall too soon risks another house price explosion - which needs to be avoided at (almost) any cost.
TTP
RBNZ are dusting down their DTI and LTV toolkit so that they can drop the OCR and keep the lid on the housing market. Ditto the big increase in foreign exchange reserves - could well be needed to defend the NZD when we have to drop rates before the US.
Buy now and buy quality existing houses (built before 2018) as many new built are more likely to have quality issues few years down the track.
Interesting comment, my place was built 2015 and it took a very long time to find it. The only thing more frustrating than not having the money is having the money and not being able to find a good build to spend it on. You need some skills to find a decent place, more than just an inspection gives you.
Better to buy a dwelling on a big chunk of land (800sqm+) and just hold.
(I hate land-bankers. They're scum because our ridiculous tax system encourages them to be. Vote to reform our idiotic tax system please!)
Looking around at new-builds, the quality of building/materials suggest that many of them will have a rather limited lifespan......
I've serious doubt that they'll prove to be as "low maintenance" as the glossy marketing material shouts. I wouldn't trust too many of the synthetic building materials being used today. For sure, the building/construction industry has much to answer for.
I'd much rather buy an older dwelling: pre-leaky homes - and refurbish it.
TTP
Apart from materials, a significant number of individuals involved in the construction of new builds adopt a mindset of "I won't be here for long, so I don't care." What's even more surprising is that this attitude is shared by many inspectors…
Quality houses built prior 2018 will likely be in demand in the future.
Above with the recent flood, personally I see “leaky home syndrome” 2.0 towards 2030.
Got an idea ? ....for any property article when commenting on here, and to "balance" the discussion, we can have KYC (know your customer) codes.
So here goes:
RTR = renter
FHBH = living at home, but looking to buy
FHBR = renting, but looking to buy
HOM = home owner with mortgage (no rentals owned)
HOF = home owner freehold (no rentals owned)
PI = private property investor with 1 property
MPI = private multiple property investor (2+ properties)
PBO = Property Business Owner - owning a real estate company selling property
PD = Property developer business
SS = "Swooped & Scooped" buyers that have just bought a mortgagee sale property
So at the moment I am a "HOF" but have been a very recent MPI (USA)
Just a thought from the Crazy Horse ......as everyone can carry on with their "blanket statements" , "biased"" opinions, thoughts, ruminations, ponderings, retorts etc etc etc as normal - BUT it would give a far greater context, as to where we are all coming from, and what is written in these forums.
ps please note - "Sp.....er" or DGM was never mentioned above !
🍿
Crazy Horse What about SS? 'Swoop and Scoop'. Distressed mortgage holders then mortgagee sales then SS by the likes of seven-house Luxon and other multiple house owners.......the landed gentry.......who swoop down and then scoop up the bargains..
Good one streetwise .....but they couldn't use it until they (as from today) have bought a mortgagee sale property etc ....will add it to the list , cheers CH
This dead cat has quite a bounce to it doesn't it?
The high test rates is good for us as it limits demand from others who want to buy now but can't
There is a surge coming later from two or three years of those who want to get on the property ladder but can't yet. When interest do start to fall or lending criteria starts to ease.
Good on you. All the best with finding the right place this summer. And yes I think you are right. For all the noise about mortgage rates , interest deductibility, etc long term house prices are determined by supply and demand. You are right that there will be some pent up demand, but equally supply is constrained with construction dropping. The new government policies addressing supply won't have effect for a couple of years
.
Is 1.1% a big bounce? That's negative after adjusting for inflation.
Yes it is trivial but it definitely ain't the crashing sounds of a market hemorrhaging and people abandoning their homes in droves like some on here would like or try to tell everyone it's about to happen. It is just ticking along which is great hope it carries along like this. As in the long term it's better for the majority of NZers rather than the exorbitant peaks and dips
The fact that it's ticking along at all with rates as high as they are is quite remarkable really. Imagine what's going to happen as soon as rates start to come down.
Thats more than salary so it is to me. My mortgage hasn't been adjusted for inflation so I couldn't care less if this bounce is in line with the cpi or not
.
Trivial increase, and with the less robust average measure.
The increase is more than my salary so it's not trivial to me.
In broad statistical terms it is pretty trivial, and again it is the flawed average measure
This includes the initial hype of a national government and all the wonderful policies they were going to introduce... and latter part of November mr Peter's popped that bubble..
1.1% with hype.. next 3 months without the hype =?
I look forward to your positive spin on matters in 3 months time
Almost 20,000 home loan accounts are now past due, credit bureau Centrix says, 25% more than a year ago.
hospo, construction, retail, RE - any jobs directly relying on (1) house price increases and (2) discretionary spend are increasingly feeling pain and shedding small numbers of staff. Other businesses seem to be freezing headcount and watching expenses closely as the tide starts to go out faster into 2024.
Retail specifically will likely have a hard xmas sale period( most their sales happen at xmas).
Tradies are spending a lot more time in the surf as work is drying up from reduced spend - and more new build tradies are looking for reno work - means more sharks competing for less fish...
My money is on a LOT of people waking up in January realising the pain they feel now is going to last a long time -> resulting in large numbers of listings and less buyers (who will see the shift and wait for the real bottom) and for large businesses exposed to the downturn they will start to lay off a lot more people.
2024 will be the year of opportunity for those who can adapt. i dont see green shoots in retail or hospo or housing related industries til late 2025 or early 2026.
Tax cuts wont do anything - as Orr will see those as inflationary and will keep interest rates high to counter them.
i see more kiwis hopping to Oz, increased investment in productive businesses, reduced immigration, far less money going into housing and Luxon and Co laying off a ton of government exployees. Councils will struggle with huge debt, higher rates and lso start to shed large numbers of staff. Working from home will be a thing of the past as employers watch productivity like hawks.
1.5% price rise for houses is the lull before the storm. not much +ve sentiment really.. just people wanting to believe the good old days are coming back in jan.
Thankfully markets don’t go based on what your money is on….But at the same time I don’t think anyone wise believes that the good old days are back. I just don’t think we’re going to have any more big falls soon.
second interest.co.nz article today is more in line with reality - prices down, stock up... cant fight gravity... i would think a survey of retail, hospo tradies would tell the real story
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/125488/new-listings-total-stock-mor…
But the total stock available for sale on the website increased by twice as much as new listings, rising from 25,602 properties in October to 28,014 in November. That's an extra 2412 properties for the month (+9.4%).
That means the total number of residential properties for sale on Realestate.co.nz at the end of November was up 45% compared to November last year.
But asking prices have gone in the opposite direction and headed down for the month.
The average asking price dropped by almost $31,000, from $920,678 in October to $889,879 in November, a decline of 3.3%.
I can't see working from home as being a thing of the past as too many will revolt if this is attempted to be taken off them, and there are ways to monitor productivity for remote workers. The core issue in govt departments form my 1st hand experience is too many wafty and middle-management roles opened up where people get 80-100k and don't do much, or they weren't fit for the leadership role as they were the next best in line given the high level of attrition we saw over 2020-2022. So many cases of if you stuck around long enough you practically were given a better role and payrise due to the loss of competent staff jumping ship, and building such a large loss of capability takes time to get back. Hopefully with unemployment ticking up and people seeing tangible job losses around them, they will stick with their jobs and the competence will increase on a broad spectrum.
Just give it up already mate. You’re starting to sound pathetic - the writing is on the wall
I don't have to give up anything.. it's you who has everything to lose.. hence you keep harping about house prices going up when indeed it's all written on the wall..It's a 🍋
Exactly, you’ve got nothing to give up and I sense a whole lot of jealousy and tall poppy. Explained the BS that comes out of your mouth.
You sound like a frustrated old man
The hopium is strong in this spruiker. The writing has been on the wall since the start of 2022.... and it appears that 95% of spruikers have taken heed and slunk away. There are the final diehards - TTP et al, that simply can't face a world where housing is for living in and not investing in.
With that short term mentality, I’d be surprised if you had any good investments. But keep doing you.
Wahoo celebration time. Inflation is great everybody wins.
I suspect that most of this rise occurred in the first half of this period and that we have now returned to the downward trend of the last couple of years. We may well see this trend accelerate next year, if mortgage stress data is anything to go on:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/301018317/almost-20000-home-loan…
Ha-ha, funny! Sp - - - - - rs are now embracing the much less reliable average selling price and TradeMe asking price measure as a measure of market health as opposed to the more accurate median and HPI.
Talking about scratching for salvation or should I say salivation?
Do to it's poor reliability, I remember being shot down several times by Sp - - - - - rs for recognizing the same average measure.
The median price bottomed out in Feb. The REINZ HPI has been rising since May.
So that everyone is on the same page, going forward, lets all stick to the HPI and median for accuracy then!
Couldn’t sound more ignorant. You lot folllwed the HPI when it was in a downward trend, now chosen to ignore it when it’s been consistently up over the past few months. I bet you’re still waiting for a good time to buy since 2008.
Yep the DGM's on here are going to lose their shit over the coming months.
by Zwifter | 29th Nov 23, 4:53pm
The bulk of the pain to mortgage holders is coming in 2024, pretty much 99% of fixed term mortgages will have rolled over next year. My pick is August cuts as the economy will be turning to shit.
by Zwifter | 29th Nov 23, 11:37am - "4 to 5% gains next year in line with inflation is my pick"
Which one is it? You're not seriously thinking you can have both on the back of an avalanche of immigrant work seekers in a shrinking job market??????
Not even going to try dissect the nonsense that’s potentially in your comment. It hits hard when you realise the dgm commenters on here are actually just keyboard warriors with likely no real world investing/entrepreneur experience - trying to convince people who have been in the market for years of their theories.
by Iceman | 1st Dec 23, 10:24am - "Not even going to try dissect the nonsense that’s potentially in your comment"
Now-now, that's not very respectful to another Sp - - - -er now is it?
Knowing how wound up you've become, I will leave you to do what you do best.....vomit.
You think it's nonsense to suggest that house prices rising in an environment where the economy has "turned to shit" is somewhat counter-intuitive..?
I've always wondered: if someone like TTP decided to list a property for $1,000,000,000, would that effect the average asking price calculated by Trademe, etc. or do they exclude any extreme outliers from their dataset?
TTP is a convicted fraudster/market manipulator/price fixer. So I wouldn't put it past his company to signifcantly manipulate anything that they possible can.
Just a thought ... I wonder if the RBNZ's stance on HFL isn't a lever to get DTI ratios in and operating.
I mean - banks can't grow their loan books (and profits) until there is more lending and the RBNZ's HFL stance means lending growth is constrained and any revival is pushed further into the future.
Thoughts?
I wonder how much of this is due to higher quality homes coming onto the market, which get better prices.
It will be interesting to see if the 'subtle' increase in competition increases more substantially as more people roll over to higher interest rates (if the average someone posted the other day of ~5.5% is true, that means 50%+ are still facing a future squeeze).
The qv data shows that it is the lower quartile houses that are pushing the HPI up rather than the upper quartile ones. I don't have a theory for why that is but that's what the data shows. Perhaps it's new townhouses?
Homes just updated prices today, quite a big upward spike, back to basically $1M. House sold last week down the road not as nice for $1.06M with 2 people duking it out at Auction, so its probably a low estimate. One Roof is more accurate. Time to buy was August to October pre election.
10.5% increase on most houses in my area according to Homes. Probably skewed by some big sales but still, that's quite a jump in 2 weeks!
Used to use Homes as the reference but I'm no longer sure about that site in the way they do the calculations. Maybe they are just trying to synchronise with the likes of One Roof as there was more than a 10% estimate difference, its still low even now.
It is nonsense though isn't it? Id like to believe it but my area saw a 2 percent fall in HPI over 3 months while homes gives my house a 5% bump. In the end it is just noise that will be cancelled out by the simple equation of how many people want my house and how much money did the bank lend them.
Delayed, dated stats that are irrelevant to now and funnily enough still under inflation or a term deposit rate. Spruikers - enjoy the last of the positive numbers for a while.
Auckland Central already quietly roaring away at an annualised increase of 14%.
Will take a few more months before the annual figures move strongly into the black and MSM report this 'shocking' news in breathless headlines.
That will be a year after the smart money moved back into the market.
Cheers all!
Yay... let's all celebrate unaffordable houses becoming even more unaffordable! No wonder we don't make anything in this country.
Increasing prices are only a good thing for those profiting from them (x% commission, investors, etc.)
What people don't realise is it's making upgrading a lot more unaffordable too. I'd rather see my house halve in value, sell it and only have to put $200k more to buy one two times bigger/nicer.
It's really simple math nobody seems to grasp.
Not enough 'good' houses in Auckland + demand is still very high = (ridiculous) prices will continue to rise.
Even if you knocked $100k off every house in New Zealand, they would still be over priced..
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.