The average value of New Zealand homes increased by $3408 in October to $908,853, according to the CoreLogic House Price Index.
Average dwelling values were up in most parts of the country, with the biggest monthly increase of $38,678 occurring in Banks Peninsular.
However there were also some notable declines in value as well, with the biggest occurring in Auckland's Gulf Islands, which is dominated by Waiheke Island, where the average dwelling value declined by $89,577 in October.
According to CoreLogic's October report, the change in property values outside the main centres was relatively diverse.
"Rotorua, Gisborne, Whangarei and Hastings recorded solid increases (in average values) of almost 1% or higher, but Invercargill, New Plymouth and Whanganui all recorded falls of at least 1%," the report said.
"Over the past three months New Plymouth has dropped by almost 3%, whereas Hastings has increased by nearly the same amount."
CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said is seems pretty likely values will continue to rise in the coming months, but increases may not be seen in every month or location.
"This 'recovery' could remain fairly subdued by past standards, given that housing affordability is still problematic, mortgage rates aren't set to fall anytime soon and caps on debt-to-income ratios are still on the cards for 2024," he said.
The table below shows average values and their movement since September, for all main urban districts throughout the country.
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| CoreLogic House Price Index | |||
| Three Months to October 2023 | |||
| Average Property Value | |||
| Territorial Authority | Three months ending September 2023 | Three months ending October 2023 | Difference |
| Far North | $682,988 | $679,960 | -$3,028 |
| Whangarei | $729,717 | $736,744 | $7,026 |
| Kaipara | $802,994 | $824,335 | $21,342 |
| Auckland - Rodney | $1,231,078 | $1,237,443 | $6,365 |
| Rodney - Hibiscus Coast | $1,141,928 | $1,151,295 | $9,367 |
| Rodney - North | $1,300,591 | $1,304,440 | $3,850 |
| Auckland - North Shore | $1,425,395 | $1,431,987 | $6,593 |
| North Shore - Coastal | $1,633,345 | $1,632,854 | -$491 |
| North Shore - North Harbour | $1,390,473 | $1,406,285 | $15,812 |
| North Shore - Onewa | $1,134,409 | $1,143,508 | $9,099 |
| Auckland - Waitakere | $987,925 | $993,039 | $5,114 |
| Auckland - City suburbs | $1,445,666 | $1,444,765 | -$901 |
| Auckland City - Central | $1,225,047 | $1,247,305 | $22,258 |
| Auckland City - Islands | $1,562,063 | $1,472,486 | -$89,577 |
| Auckland City - South | $1,302,996 | $1,288,400 | -$14,596 |
| Auckland_City - East | $1,807,784 | $1,808,827 | $1,044 |
| Auckland - Manukau | $1,141,474 | $1,139,706 | -$1,768 |
| Manukau - Central | $879,831 | $878,892 | -$939 |
| Manukau - East | $1,432,821 | $1,434,215 | $1,394 |
| Manukau - North West | $993,385 | $989,834 | -$3,551 |
| Auckland - Papakura | $913,032 | $933,200 | $20,168 |
| Auckland - Franklin | $905,200 | $902,917 | -$2,283 |
| Thames Coromandel | $1,103,574 | $1,132,182 | $28,608 |
| Hauraki | $629,159 | $635,090 | $5,931 |
| Waikato | $719,948 | $722,371 | $2,423 |
| Matamata Piako | $686,710 | $690,777 | $4,068 |
| Hamilton | $787,616 | $797,950 | $10,334 |
| Hamilton - Central & North West | $741,952 | $747,207 | $5,255 |
| Hamilton - North East | $967,941 | $983,243 | $15,302 |
| Hamilton - South East | $722,656 | $732,472 | $9,816 |
| Hamilton - South West | $700,392 | $709,707 | $9,315 |
| Waipa | $867,613 | $877,375 | $9,763 |
| Otorohanga | $527,875 | $531,538 | $3,663 |
| South Waikato | $420,784 | $416,707 | -$4,076 |
| Waitomo | $378,901 | $368,528 | -$10,373 |
| Taupo | $825,364 | $825,170 | -$194 |
| Western BOP | $999,424 | $1,006,075 | $6,651 |
| Tauranga | $1,007,262 | $1,006,129 | -$1,133 |
| Rotorua | $634,972 | $652,561 | $17,589 |
| Whakatane | $740,633 | $741,536 | $902 |
| Kawerau | $393,501 | $394,990 | $1,489 |
| Opotiki | $505,120 | $507,982 | $2,862 |
| Gisborne | $589,914 | $596,121 | $6,207 |
| Wairoa | $401,444 | $383,742 | -$17,702 |
| Hastings | $778,707 | $785,600 | $6,894 |
| Napier | $746,181 | $746,858 | $677 |
| Central Hawkes Bay | $590,932 | $589,470 | -$1,462 |
| New Plymouth | $704,137 | $695,706 | -$8,431 |
| Stratford | $476,245 | $475,641 | -$604 |
| South Taranaki | $430,752 | $434,449 | $3,698 |
| Ruapehu | $364,571 | $357,617 | -$6,954 |
| Whanganui | $497,299 | $490,210 | -$7,089 |
| Rangitikei | $421,858 | $419,556 | -$2,302 |
| Manawatu | $597,094 | $598,181 | $1,087 |
| Palmerston North | $635,948 | $636,879 | $931 |
| Tararua | $403,772 | $413,441 | $9,669 |
| Horowhenua | $556,260 | $566,658 | $10,399 |
| Kapiti Coast | $800,728 | $789,702 | -$11,027 |
| Porirua | $805,927 | $824,166 | $18,239 |
| Upper Hutt | $726,120 | $727,042 | $922 |
| Hutt | $755,260 | $757,669 | $2,408 |
| Wellington City | $1,017,835 | $1,018,073 | $238 |
| Wellington - Central & South | $971,436 | $977,556 | $6,120 |
| Wellington - East | $1,127,305 | $1,136,466 | $9,161 |
| Wellington - North | $965,464 | $961,583 | -$3,881 |
| Wellington - West | $1,153,955 | $1,150,503 | -$3,452 |
| Masterton | $554,489 | $556,775 | $2,286 |
| Carterton | $622,829 | $617,920 | -$4,909 |
| South Wairarapa | $751,965 | $730,202 | -$21,763 |
| Tasman | $766,957 | $771,692 | $4,735 |
| Nelson | $773,219 | $772,610 | -$609 |
| Marlborough | $695,081 | $695,549 | $468 |
| Kaikoura | $666,154 | $666,814 | $659 |
| Buller | $327,511 | $332,716 | $5,205 |
| Grey | $373,136 | $371,495 | -$1,640 |
| Westland | $394,624 | $382,713 | -$11,911 |
| Hurunui | $609,070 | $618,138 | $9,068 |
| Waimakariri | $693,083 | $697,493 | $4,410 |
| Christchurch | $733,506 | $741,178 | $7,672 |
| Christchurch - Banks Peninsula | $779,316 | $817,995 | $38,678 |
| Christchurch - Central & North | $831,239 | $845,027 | $13,788 |
| Christchurch - East | $576,759 | $578,276 | $1,518 |
| Christchurch - Hills | $1,026,425 | $1,047,083 | $20,658 |
| Christchurch - Southwest | $697,351 | $702,377 | $5,026 |
| Selwyn | $810,480 | $818,755 | $8,275 |
| Ashburton | $532,398 | $528,564 | -$3,834 |
| Timaru | $507,360 | $511,242 | $3,881 |
| MacKenzie | $764,909 | $745,795 | -$19,114 |
| Waimate | $430,700 | $417,712 | -$12,988 |
| Waitaki | $472,180 | $465,778 | -$6,402 |
| Central Otago | $791,570 | $792,814 | $1,245 |
| Queenstown Lakes | $1,669,277 | $1,677,669 | $8,392 |
| Dunedin | $610,715 | $615,784 | $5,069 |
| Dunedin - Central & North | $621,954 | $625,272 | $3,318 |
| Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal | $571,089 | $591,550 | $20,461 |
| Dunedin - South | $577,625 | $584,563 | $6,938 |
| Dunedin - Taieri | $642,708 | $644,821 | $2,112 |
| Clutha | $374,950 | $379,681 | $4,730 |
| Southland | $494,962 | $488,974 | -$5,988 |
| Gore | $381,423 | $393,454 | $12,031 |
| Invercargill | $462,588 | $458,040 | -$4,548 |
| Auckland Region | $1,259,296 | $1,261,776 | $2,479 |
| Wellington Region | $890,429 | $893,417 | $2,987 |
| Main Urban Areas | $1,000,288 | $1,003,685 | $3,397 |
| All of Aotearoa | $905,445 | $908,853 | $3,408 |
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86 Comments
More waffle from interested parties. The slight increase is all noise in the data. If there were confidence intervals they would almost certainly cross 0 indicating a statistically insignificant increase.
Personally, I'd love to get my hands on the raw data before outliers are removed, what groupings are made, etc.. But as long as their process has been consistent over the years, there is still value in the presentation.
Of course, it's a private company with a product to sell - maybe I didn't look hard enough, but their process appears to be 'proprietary'.
Shows where the mainstream media get their money from- both NZ Herald and stuff leading with ‘downturn over say core logic’.
The question would be around their methodology with like for like properties. Even with a consistent process, average prices can remain static while the composition of properties sold can change. Are buyers on average getting an extra bedroom for the same money?
E.g.
- 1/3 2 bedroom, 1/3 3 bedroom, 1/3 4 bedroom at average of $700k vs
- 1/10 2 bedroom, 5/10 3 bedroom, 4/10 4 bedroom at average of $700k.
Certain people here have trouble accepting that property markets are cyclical. That is, property markets rise - as well as fall.
There’s little point in becoming dismayed about the market becoming more buoyant - with prices increasing. It was bound to happen…… And, in time, it will slow down again.
In my view, those who struggle with the above ought to stay away from property altogether because they only risk becoming flustered - wasting personal energy. Better to channel one’s energy into something more constructive.
TTP
Unsure of the angle of your comment. If you're suggesting I may be angry or bitter about the data, certainly not the case as I'm a "homeowner" and house prices rising will benefit me.
Unlike some however, I can throw a few rational "reckons" at the data rather than letting my vested interests cloud my judgement and narrative.
How do rising house prices benefit you as a homeowner? I assume you must own multiple properties?
I see acceptance of rising prices. I see much less acceptance of the opposite, which by your words of wisdom should be equally embraced
The Corelogic House Price Index is probably the most accurate measure for trends. Outliers and noise are smoothed out. But you are correct. If the jump or drop in your district is small this month don't get too excited about it.
Still s shitload of residential building going on in Auckland. Forward BCs look sad. I see the chineese developer that bought my glendowie house to redevelope land is busy painting it , looks like they will bail..... overs/unders $1mil loss....
interestingly here in the hutt real estate agents have been talking up the prices for the last couple of months and everything has been listed as "by negotiation" or deadline tender with very few listed prices, and then all of a sudden this week , a large number of houses that previously were listed as "by negotiation" have prices on them.
I'm sure the recent influx of listings and prices going on the houses is merely a coincidence.
the prices in the Hutt area has passed the lowest. and the price predictions on website like Homes are about 3 months behind.
I don't like the outcome but the data shows a trend that's echoed by the REINZ month on month data. I'm forced to concede that our migration flow is probably having more of an upward impact than the OCR is on reducing energy in the market now. I'm just waiting to see the roads choke with cars, elective operating and ED wait times soaring and our young kiwis struggle to reach mediocre educational milestones. Oh wait that's already happening......
I would have to agree unfortunately... I always read comments and there seems to be more of what people want reality to be than what it actually is.
Interest rates have moved a lot higher, there is a large contingent who would like to have seen prices fall a lot further, either out of self interest (missed the boat) or a general desire to see housing more affordable (which I think most people can be on board with). The reality of the data at the moment is that supply is constrained and crappy as always, forward consents are down, immigration is pumping away (National are not about to stop that), NZ is a safe little island (apart from gangs booming roll call). Immigrants want to buy, first home buyers don't want to delay life forever, transactions need to happen and for a number of reasons and supply and demand is putting a floor on things. It can be argued whether it is technically the bottom, noise in the data, further to fall but I think objectively it can be said that the ass is no longer (currently) falling out of the market. It may still happen for other reasons but it isn't at the moment.
And we've just elected a govt of sorts that has a propensity and intent of supporting welfarism for property speculators off the back of productive society.
Yes compared to how most countries operate the property investing class in NZ are a massive beneficiary group in this country. Then they see themselves as part of the hard working business owning Kiwis unlike all the undeserving slackers that vote Labour...
Meanwhile, come a flood or earthquake, they have their hands out very quickly for the taxpayer welfare they'd happily cut for poor people.
"...a govt of sorts..." - LOL
Yes it sucks, it is not allowed to be a normal fair market with real boom/bust cycles like in most other countries due to the huge amounts of people flowing into the country to keep the demand high. The only things on the horizon that may well stop everything in its tracks are a) Unemployment shooting up and/or b) Reserve bank sees prices taking off and slaps a big fat loan-income ratio on the banks come March
Yes as much as it irks me I am certainly starting to think that the property ponzi in NZ is in fact an unstoppable force. With the immigration flood gates wide open, a pro-property Govt and the simple fact that property 'is' the NZ economy there seems to be only one way forward, the wrong way IMO but thats what we have chosen for decades and continue to do so.
Both these comments are pertinent and underlied by the fact that NZ has never seen a property bust. It's ingrained in the NZ mentality that house prices keep rising
Take the income multiple as a measure and you will realise this cannot go forever. The question is what will the general public's reaction be when things grind to a halt given that some have based their financial decisions on ever increasing prices? The capital gains were baked into decisions to buy negatively geared investment houses. Or into decisions to buy a home for a set number of years while being overleveraged
Yes, you are right and will be right for a few months more, at least. It's just that the economical sense for sustaining these prices paints another picture staring further and further into the future
And don't get me started on the impact of automated driving or work from home, which has been looked at only with a macro lens limited to the present
Auckland Central is preparing for take off. Could hit 2mill average towards the end of this cycle.
Depending what's going to happen in Gaza.. If it's breaking into a long war, you can bet on a worldwide depression and petrol price of $4+..
50/50 really.
Its not going to be a "Long War", its about as one sided as it can get. Hamas didn't count on this level of revenge. I'm waiting for mounting pressure to force Egypt to open the border, not sure why they have not done so already at which point a million people plus will leave, its a stay and die or leave option.
The other three neighbours are starting to get itchy!
Israel doesn't have an occupation army, it has a strike-and-retreat one
It also has a lot of neighbourly friends who can't wait to test their attrition rate
Egyptians don't want Palestinians. They're not Ukrainians to be welcome by all neighbours. The percentage of trouble bringers among them is too high for the others to open their borders
So Israel has to contend with an attritional urban war among rowdy neighbours smelling blood with the backdrop of western media slamming their warcrimes
......... you can bet on a worldwide depression and petrol price of $4+.
Someone's being a little misery merchant today.
TTP
I am actually feeling positive.
Will be selling the house and downsize into a nice apartment and a 1970s car to muck around.. no more lawn to mow !
"Any recovery will be subdued"
As we head into the next downturn, any celebrated price gains will amount to zip. For transparency sake, when adjusted for inflation, these "so called" gains will translate into continued falls. House price depreciation will intensify on trend as we head into autumn 2024.
Money is expensive and there remains a glut of expensive housing.
I’m pretty sure you’d previously said the same about mid to late 2023? Yep interest rates will continue to bite but there is still plenty of money out there chasing these properties and the numbers are tracking the opposite to what you keep saying. For the record I have no vested interest and think our housing is extremely overpriced but none of the stats point to your prediction
When you get a spare moment read the latest RBNZ financial Stability Report released here. The impact of recent interest rate increases is yet to be seen.
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/125006/latest-reserve-bank-financial…
Like I've posted at various times throughout 2023, we are a nation of debt addicts and the coming fallout from Autumn 2024 is simply inevitable.
I refix in Autumn 2024 - Hope it comes earlier.
I refix in July. I think I will go 6 months, how about you?
That's why the RBNZ are still waiting, they are waiting for people like you on the longer terms to roll over. Pretty much everyone will have rolled over in the next 12 months to higher rates. They are signalling a hold for November.
Jan 26 for me!! Wonder what shape we’ll be in by then?
This.
Annualised this price increase is only 4.3%. Our CPI is 5.6%. Our house prices are performing worse than inflation.
The debt has got 5.6% less due to inflation.... Only a disadvantage for those who are debt free, but then I guess they are using it for it's intended purpose, accommodation. They are also probably not that bent out of shape about a year or two of inflation being higher than house price appreciation.
The debt hasn’t got 5.6% less because of inflation! The cost of that debt has become significantly more expensive as well and for many people the cost of the internet expensive has gone up more than their increase in incomes so they are worse off.
Instrad of paying 3% on their 30 year mortgage, people may now be looking at 8-10% for that same mortgage. That is going to chew up a lot of their incomes over the next 30 years.
CPI is at 5.6% for the Sep 23 year which means these circa 1% increases are still 4.6% decreases in inflation-adjusted terms.
Wage inflation is trailing at 4.3% and if you look at the LCI / CPI graph here - https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/annual-wage-cost-inflation-remains-at-4-… - you can see that it is not really until the CPI gets under ~2.5% that wages have a chance to catch up.
You're not wrong for a house owned debt free, but it is a different story for one leveraged.. Inflation does a wonderful job of inflating away debt. It can a gift that keeps on giving for people who can afford the interest payments..
I think this is a fallacy - it works if incomes are rising and the cost of debt is flat or falling (ie the last 40 years!)
But if your interest payments on debt are rising faster than your increase in income (as a result of the general inflation) I’m not so sure about the inflate away the debt theory. You end up paying a shit load in additional interest expense that could have been invested in other ways to provide an economic benefit. Eg if you have a $500,000 in housing debt and refix at todays rates instead of rates from two years ago, are you now better or worse off? And if interest rates keep rising for the next 25 years how much additional income is this going to take from you in the future in interest expense (that could have been invested elsewhere)
I agree with the theory when rates are flat or falling but I find it difficult to fathom in the current context - it just looks like economic pain to me giving more and more of your income (in interest expense) to the bank to own the same home.
Agree
The key assumption people appear to miss in the inflate away debt theory is that only their wages will rise relative to the size of the mortgage - but never go..’well if inflation is as 5% persistently then there is the risk we have 8-10% mortgage rates on a very high level of initial debt relative to my current income and if my mortgage is $500,000 then interest expense alone is going to chew up a significant proportion of my wages’
It is why price/earnings ratios (ie fundamental analysis) is a timeless principle for investing - but people appear to forget that when it comes to housing. Eg people for example won’t buy shares unless the P/E is low, but people happily buy houses at price/income ratios that are insanely high (by historical records - ie off the charts high). It doesn’t make any sense.
You might feel like debt costs are high, but on a historical basis they are not, on the basis of the test rates banks used when checking affordability the are not that high. Any person who took out a 30yr mortgage and then whines about 7% interest rates needs a slap. Having only 7% interest rates and such high inflation is a stoke of luck for the indebted. Historically you would be paying 7% rates with far lower inflation.
Debt is also not a zero sum game. For every borrower there is a lender. Borrower pays more, lender earns more (term deposit holder / saver). If anyone of these two has been disadvantaged by low interest rates and now high inflation it is certainly not the borrower.
This isn’t about how I feel - it’s about real numbers and the real costs people are going to get hit with trying to service their mortgages at these new rates.
Costs that should be well accounted for and budgeted when they took out the loan.
I'm sure savers including first home buyers will appreciate earning some money on their savings while real estate values have declined / staying flat for a bit.
But this isn’t true - the idea of a 5% OCR was laughed at 2 years ago and it was said (by many people on this forum) to be an impossible outcome.
So a large part of society haven’t planned for mortgage rates to be this high which makes you above statements out of whack with the reality of what is unfolding. Saying they ‘should have accounted for this’ can’t have happened because for many it was deemed impossible.
They ‘should have’ done what you suggested (planned for higher rates) - but many did not even though I (and others) were suggesting they should do so - whole being ridiculed as DGMs by those who said the current environment was an impossible outcome.
People don’t plan for things they deem to be impossible.
While that is valid most house purchases involve large mortgages. The mortgage amount doesn't change with inflation. Therefore, house price increases in nominal terms are a win for mortgaged homeowners. Even if the house value is decreasing in real terms. Inflation is a good thing for asset owners. Even if the high interest rates to counter it are not.
The total cost of the mortgage increases a lot! Ie the total interest paid over the life of the loan - you would want to make sure your wages increase more than the additional interest expense for you to be in an improved financial position.
Yeah I'm pretty sure I said that.
Might want to read again.
(hint: mortgage amount doesn’t change during inflation - but the amount the mortgage will cost you over its life may cost you a hell of a lot more in interest expense)
It's unlikely that interest rates will keep going up forever, but for most people their income will tend to track inflation. So despite some short term pain 1689 Baptist's comment is correct for most home owners over the life of their mortgage.
If prices don't increase a lot of landlords will be bailing - why would you hold a negatively geared property that's straining your personal finances for zero cap gain and losses when that equity could be on term deposit?
The increase in supply from these folk will impact prices.
A matter of time.
That might be why the Nats want to retrospectively reduce the bright-line period?
That's an inevitable swing in the housing market that regularly happens, prices run away, returns no longer make sense, values fall and relatively speaking they look like a terrible cash return - until they are not again. Funny cycle to watch.
In a sustained period of falling or flat prices there is always a portion of the market who realise they mucked up, cash flow dosn't work, or its just not fun owning rentals when prices don't increase 10% every single year and you have the joys of "wear and tear". Supply from these people will increase but that's in no way unusual in the current market.
The Govt pumping the country full of 100k extra people each year will quickly mop this up. Along with further straining our health, education and other public services. Painful to watch.
The bust is clearly over. Prices edging higher. I am still not convinced it will be sustained strongly though.
We have animal spirits stirred by Spring and the election result, not to mention high levels of immigration.
Yet interest rates will be HFL, and 2024 looks like a hard year for the economy. However, on the latter it’s likely to be lower paid workers who are renters who will tend to suffer more, as job losses in retail and hospo mount (as discretionary spend crashes). The slump in housing construction may not have too much impact on mortgages, given that so many construction workers are foreign and on work visas.
Wellington is worth watching, although the job cuts may not be enough to exert more than a minor negative impact on the housing market.
The bust is clearly over.
What bust are you talking about?
I must have missed it.
There was no bust, prices still didn't drop far enough to zero out the silly 30% rises. We are back where we would have been if rates were not slashed during Covid.
You don’t call nearly -20% a bust???
Even the Herald used the word ‘crash’ this morning(‘the crash is over’ they proclaimed)
Can you remind us HM of the % increase in house prices prior to 'the bust'... kind of puts it into perspective.
As has been pointed out numerous times, a 20% fall nearly wipes out a previous 30% gain.
If the 30% gain was called a ‘boom’, I think it’s pretty logical to call its near complete correction a ‘bust’
FYI It was just called a "Correction"
The common economic use of the term correction does not imply the near wipe out of a boom.
If prices had fallen say 7-10%, I would have called that a correction.
That's incorrect..
The word "crash" was certainly used in the past by a reporter for the Herald. Knowing how dirty a word it is, I'd suspect the user was either enjoying their first day on the job or it was their last.....
House prices in Godzone never "crash" in public.
I’m 50/50 that we’ve just witnessed the first act of the show. As the yield curves normalise we will start to see the real market action.
See global share markets - yield curve starting to normalise and equities are getting smashed. Housing might be delayed 6-12 months (but there is at present for example a high correlation between the US share market and our housing market - compare the price charts - so our housing market is as volatile as the US equity market - go figure for a ‘safe asset’).
I think it is just as likely we are seeing a bear market rally as it is that prices have bottomed. We need rising unemployment to get inflation back to 2% (in theory) so that means businesses must fail and people must lose jobs/incomes - none of this is good news for asset prices.
A few are still in denial about prices rising I see. Looks clear to me interest rates have peaked and while the floodgates are held open there will be more rises to come.
It was also clear to property experts that rates had peaked this time last year.
But then you realise property expert = property propaganda
And if you’ve read enough history you know there is no point in listening to propaganda unless you take pleasure in being a brainwashed fool. And being a brainwashed fool is stupid and dangerous.
Here’s a question - who would you rate as a genuinely objective and independent economist commenting on the housing market?
I might count Cameron Bagrie, even if I think he suffers a bit of legacy bank indoctrination. I might also include Rodney Dickens. Unfortunately his views are accessible only by subscription (maybe I should subscribe, but really I have too many subscriptions)
I don’t rate any of the bank economists on this criteria, BNZ perhaps the best of a bad lot.
Independent_Observer
(all others have financial backing in one fashion or another and hence aren’t really independent).
So if they claim to be independent it’s a sham - like being called the Ministry of Truth in 1984. An independent economist is a myth. They all have a master.
Independent_Observer is his own master and it is free thought - which is where you find the truth - not from the mouths of men who are puppets/mouth pieces for financial gain of the industry. They do no speak the truth for fear of loss of financial gain - and this is the problem.
On a more serious note I don’t actually think any are truely independent - and because nearly all have been working in their careers in the 1980’s to now, they’ve only experienced falling interest rates and rising asset prices.
Recency/confirmation bias could be so widespread that it has infected the thinking of nearly everyone - making it impossible to see who is really independent in thought - as opposed to just a bad set of heuristics and bias from industry expectations and recent market events.
Martin North - DFA. Its Aussie data but the underlying issues are the same and he does at times cover NZ directly.
Bernard Hickey might also be added. He at least has the advantage of honestly describing what politicians and central bankers have been doing and why it is bad for following generations of Kiwis, even as he notes he of necessity puts his money in the NZ property welfare scheme to protect the interests of his children.
"Looks clear to me interest rates have peaked"
Just hold off a little, petrol price could hit $4/L and the knock on effect will start soon after.
NZ housing market (pricing) appears highly correlated t US equity market (Ie it is interest rate sensitive).
I would be watching that as a guide to what way our housing market is heading in the future as there is perhaps a 6 month lag between our housing market and their equities.
US equities have been falling again in recent months so I wouldn’t be so sure that this is the bottom for our housing market (it might be - but if the US equities start tanking I would place a bet that our housing market will follow it down).
Subdued = Quiet, depressed, sombre, muted, soft and sad.
From an investment perspective, such a forecast is hardly enticing with 8% interest plus rates and insurance...
Ahead of an expected increase in unemployment, the broad recovery in world house prices has continued. US house prices have now reached a new all-time high, up 1½% from last year’s peak. Australian prices are back at the record high reached last year.
Canada will likely match its record high in the next month or so. New Zealand prices continue to recover, but are still well down from their peak. Norwegian prices, which were near their all-time high, took a step back in Q3. Meanwhile, UK and German prices continue to slowly drift lower.
This broad rebound – which has occurred against the backdrop of the lowest unemployment rates in decades – suggests that high interest rates are not constraining all borrowers. This raises the question of whether some households believe interest rate cuts are not far away and/or, more importantly, if monetary policy is not sufficiently tight.
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/a-broad-recovery-in-world-house-p…
It must be a miracle. Truly.
Take the actual rates, average income and house price, crunch all those numbers and... It makes no sense!
Something must be wrong somewhere, either people have far higher incomes than IRD knows about, or banks are "discounting" their rates, or...
Here comes the squeeze. Supply hasn’t been addressed, but demand grows.
10% increase in prices by end of 2024, guaranteed.
We sold in May went travelling for 6 months now buying in again. You can’t pick the bottom all you get is a smelly finger. You either want to own a house or you don’t.
So you sold at the bottom and are trying to buy back in now prices are getting bubbly again?
We sold for 100k more than we paid for it. I don’t care about “bottom” “top” I’m probably like most people and want to live my life owning a house not renting it which was terrible in my experience.
42-44 Byron Avenue, Takapuna, North Shore City - Mortgagee Sale By Tender
All 14 for sale ... Originally listed way, way back for around 1.8m.
(They ran into major issues with the piling which was way too loud ... driven steel piles! The whole area is geotechnically messy! Big chunks of basalt rock all over the place. Why driven steel piles?!? Held it up for months - leaving the framing exposed in the rear block. Love to know the full story behind these.)
Forget the statistically insignificant price movements.
The 'turn' is signaled by increasing sales volumes.
Are we seeing that? No? Yes? ;-)
I'm seeing prices back up to the peak of 2021 now, Interest rates are not restricting buyers. This one : https://homes.co.nz/address/christchurch/ilam/18-coldstream-court/eVq18W sold for 975k this morning.
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