The average nationwide dwelling value declined by another $13,671 in May, according to Quotable Value's House Price Index (QV HPI).
The HPI measures average dwelling values on a three month rolling basis, with the national average value over the three months to May at $888,930, down $13,571 compared to the three months to April.
Perhaps surprisingly the biggest value drop between April and May was in Queenstown Lakes, where the average value declined by $18,380.
That could represent a turning point in the Queenstown market because average values in the district remain up 2.4% compared to three months earlier.
The only other district to record a decline in average value of more than $10,000 in May compared to April was Tauranga, where the average value declined by $11,311.
The latest figures also suggest the rate at which property values are declining is steady at -3.4% nationally over the three months to May, which was barely changed from -3.5% over the three months to April.
The average value of New Zealand homes has now declined by -$174,835 since its peak at the beginning of last year.
In the country's largest housing market, Auckland, the average dwelling value has declined by -$282,647 since the beginning of last year.
QV Operations Manager James Wilson said it was still too soon to say the market had hit the bottom.
"When the market does hit bottom, we won't suddenly see values begin to increase across the board," he said.
"Instead, what we are likely to see is a bumpy landing, with some centres reaching the bottom of their descent before others.
"Certain locations and property types may begin to experience some growth sooner rather than later, whereas others may remain flat or continue to soften for a period," he said.
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85 Comments
The next round of interest rates hikes will start with the longer end too going up.. anz have pushed their 3 year rate up.... all those expectations of them falling will burst..
Regional lag to changes in Wellington and Auckland starting to really kick in now. Agents in the regions get ready for a very rough period where your income is the meat in the sellers/buyers sandwich. No cashed up jaffa, wellywooders, or dairy farmers and no one can meet the stupido covid fueled cheap debt and panic prices. Who would have thought.
Regions are not special after all....
Carlos thought Tauranga was diff’runt
Depends if you are a glass half full or a glass half empty kind of guy, still over a million bucks bro.
We're cashed up, although I'm much too busy cooking popcorn these days to be out buying a house. Maybe next year we'll buy something
Interesting that this article calls the rate of decline steady, whilst stuff has it as a 'mellowing out' based on the 3rd significant figure and pretends that stats around immigration, first home buyers and auction attendance are pointing to a turn around - without giving values to those stats.
Spruikers gonna spruik.
Stuff are Fake Progressives.
Still beholden to the $$$
Media have lost the plot a little - not just here in NZ but globally. Seriously need to grow a pair and report data in an unbiased manner and not push narratives that benefit their financial backers.
More resemble propaganda machines than credible news agencies in my view now.
Agreed.
Following this note, a HUGE thank you to all of the team at interest.co.nz for your reporting and objective articles. It is refreshing to read media written to inform and not just poorly written opinion pieces to provoke emotion such as at the majority of mainstream media today. Keep up the great work!
Good time for those that have not yet become supporters to help out. Really important we don’t lose few sources of real journalism that we have.
yes. Which source of news do we pick? The US lies, the Ukrainian lies, or the Russian lies. Absolutely hilarious
I prefer to eat popcorn
100% correct.
Media exist to sell ad space. When being honest contradicts this imperative, paying the rent and wages is first priority. Actual news without spin is down the list.
And this is how a society corrupts itself.
Money is more important than integrity.
This was always the end game when newspapers lost control of the classified advertising revenue stream. Now they are beholden to the only ones left who pay them - corporate advertisers and the Govt.
That drop in value is like taking couple of buckets of water from the ocean. Doesn't make ocean look like having a lot less water. Does it?
The values of houses in both these places is just too high, well anywhere in NZ anyway. We are at the bum end of the world with a mere population of 5 million. The crazy few still want to pay their life's savings into buying a house in this place. Got to be mad.
Completely agree that prices, largely to do with cheap money, have become out of wack with people's salaries.
Where in the world would you suggest moving to, to buying a home for your family, that is a significant all around improvement on NZ?
Vietnam would be a good start. Good healthy food, very affordable, fantastic coffee, cheap housing, warm all year round and accessible to many other countries nearby which are also the same.
LoL. You've obviously never lived with a family in a third world country.
Vietnam is famous for it's ruthless, systemic, government backed corruption. Also if your family has had any links with the old South Vietnam government or military, you and your family will be discriminated against in perpetuity. Do a bit of research before you wind us up with your fake comments, please.
Everyone is allowed an opinion, and objective discussion is always welcomed. Do you have any evidence to back up these claims? If so I'm happy to consider it, otherwise, before you take offence and write comments expelling your superiority complex, remember life isn't so bad, try looking at the bright side.
Not sure it offers the same lifestyle, one problem is I couldn’t take my little border collie - Nell - nicknamed Nellbell :), with me …….. for a number of very good reasons.
Mate who is a mech engineer moved to Czechia with his wife who grew up there. Obviously, local language skills are needed in most non-English speaking countries, but you can do alright in the main urban centres when working in certain professions such as STEM and finance.
I survived in Austria and Sweden for months without speaking the local language, although most Swedes do speak fluent English.
Spain, France, Germany, Austria, Australia are probably better if you don't have family ties to NZ
Spent a year couch surfing and loved it
After a while it's time for a permanent change.
Besutiful living close to the ocean though not cheap. 🤑
House prices are tumbling/stumbling Ngu for the next couple years
LOL!
That second table:
Average dwelling value. 3 months ending in April or May.
What the hell has 3 months got to do with it???
It's a moving average window, I believe.
Surely a value is a value at a point in time.
Now if you are talking about changes in value sure then you can talk abut 3 month periods.
It's probably done to even out noisy data
The data these stats are based on are very noisy from area to area.
Sell prices are heavily influenced by volumes available for sale v buyer's active in the area
Auckland will always be at both end of the markets stats as it Has high volumes 🙏 and high prices. soo... The peaks and troughs are worse and more/ less influential ( depending on your perspective)
Then there is chch, good volume of cheap new builds= looks better than it really is..
Take the med / smaller towns. They are influenced by desirability of the buyers v stock. Eg Northlands desirability to Aucklands seller. ( Matapouri v kaitaia. Parua bay v onerahi)
So, when spruikers say buy buy buy... I say where?
They're trying to weight average the prices for each 3 month period, rather than showing the true fall. It's massaging the numbers big time, by appearing to use a 6 month window but only effectively measuring 3 months of that data.
E.g. $900 -> $850 -> $800 vs $750 -> $700 -> $650 is a $250k fall, or a 28%. But what they're actually displaying is $850k - $700k, which is $150k or 18% fall on the "3 monthly averages".
It's a standard technique for filtering noisy time series. In your example, without further context, you have no way of knowing if that final 650 has excess noise or not. Which is exactly the reason for using a 3 month average. The advantage of a 3 month average over a 6 month is using an average in the time series introduces a lag between the point of inflection, and it showing in the data, and 3 month moving average only has a 6 week lag, vs 3 months latency for a 6-month window. Which seems fair, given your typical sale had [formerly] a 6-week settlement time.
They don't have to do anything nefarious - people can just go and look back at the older moving average values if they wish, and draw their own conclusions.
All in all, I found QV's statements on the interpretation of the data quite sensible - unlike Stuff's which implied things not said (if you read their article, note what is "quoted" vs not).
Fair point. The data was quite "noisy" from 2020 - 2021 too. Did they use the same standard filtering technique then?
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/109404/qv-says-average-housing-valu…
*Checks notes*
No they did not. Still waiting for media outlets to start reporting daily about the housing CRASH.
Yes they did. The graph on the page is the same 3 month average (its'd December to February). All that's missing is the prior 3 months values for comparison - they have only the column of current values and percentage change from the prior window (though I do note the graph doesn't say which window theye're comparing it with - was it November to January, or September to November? - I'd consider that an improvement Interest have added since) .
Recall Barfoot and Thompson reported that their average selling price for May was down over $16k on the previous month. So QV's fall of under $4k for the Auckland region for the three months to the end of May would seem to indicate that March and April are papering over May's decline to a large extent. If the next couple of months are just as bad, QV's figures for July could be pretty ugly.
Locations with biggest increases will have the biggest decreases. What goes up must come down
It's not just here that's unaffordable
Great link thanks!
Great article.
In case you were wonder why this is happening ... It is because banks have been let loose so buyers can borrow more and more and more, thereby pushing the prices up.
Banks have become the new landlords? No. Banks have created a whole new form of private taxation. If a government did this people would be up in arms. Somehow they feel its all okay that private concerns can do this.
People are dumb!
Come on Chris. People would rather blame the borrower for not being aware that interest rates can't stay low forever, than blame the banks for reckless lending. The banks are just innocent parties in this whole affair.
If irresponsible banks are the problem which party do you think is most likely to try to bring them under control?
Act?
National?
Act of course, because without action (Labour) there's no results.
I vote Act, but I'd actually expect a Greens party to bring the banks under control. They'd see bank credit creation as a proxy to wealth and our subsequent issues with inequality, something that I don't necessarily disagree with when it comes to bidding up the price of existing houses with the stroke of a pen "no money down" borrowing.
£2000 pcm median rent on London. Ouch.
Still £1500 out in the home counties 🤑
My bet is that we will see migration slow a bit after this initially reopening burst of pent up demand. Hiring is freezing across many industries, lay offs have started and that means less jobs for migrants to come to. More Kiwi's are heading offshore as well for better opportunities.
We still haven't felt the full impact of rates either as the last large chunk of mortgage holders are currently refixing into higher interest rates. This will put further downwards pressure on the economy.
In some areas of the market there is a bit of life coming back but for now its a mixed bag with many areas still dead.
customs has at at approx net 12,000 departures via air travel since 1 January. February saw a massive influx of people (+60,000), but that evaporated over march/april/may. Be interesting to see the long term trend, or if it's just seasonal fluctuations (those who can going to warmer climates for winter, etc.).
I don't think it's holidays, because last months -34,000 was in the middle of a school term.
Pretty much bang on the button IMNSHO. Another GDP contraction coming. Followed by squealing about how the RBNZ should drop the OCR immediately. They shouldn't. Early Christmas present maybe but early 2024 looking more likely. And it'll be tiny! 0.25% max. Maybe bigger mid 2024.
‘Has the property market bottomed out? New data suggest end could be in sight for downturn’
This being the Newshub bold headline leading story this morning.
How do they get away with pushing this narrative? It would be equally factual to say ‘No end in sight in housing downturn’ and yet they don’t use this headline.
Media have gone astray in my view. No longer giving news, but are now selling narrative based upon who is paying them money.
Media compromised for a while, especially print. Central ownership has been the death of independent comment. Read overseas news like Aljazera, it's like it's from a different planet content wise.
The ODT is still independent and the reporting often reflects this.
Aljazera is biased to, its just it doesn't care about things in New Zealand so it is more impartial in those areas. Things like when they mention gaza strip they always say occupied in front of it, sure it is but so is the USA but they don't feel obliged mention every time they state the name. Other things like having a count down clock to the world cup for what seem like a year, or mentioning a reporter shot by Israel every day for a year indicates there clear bias.
Awhile back someone on here posted a link to a time line of news headlines about Ireland's property market crash. Alas I can't find it. But there were lots of "bottomed out" the "market has turned" optimistic headlines on the way down that proved to be so wrong.
Yes it’s excellent, was reposted just a few weeks ago and I rewatched it. I also saw articles elsewhere that showed adds in the Irish news papers for 100% bank loans on houses. Can’t really trust all media.
I was looking for that too. Can someone please post a link to it?
I find most of the hype about spruiking and media reporting false narratives as rubbish, but I did read this article this morning and found it a bit disturbing.
on my Facebook feed from Newshub, but sponsored. Seemed to be a property coaching business promotion disguised as a news hub article.
I think it’s sometimes incompetence of the media, rather than malicious intent.
There are plenty of organisations with a vested interest in property prices rising, that have the resources to frequently output press releases, or be available for comment, to spin the story to their narrative. There are no equivalent organisation who have an interest in prices falling, so only a skewed version of the narrative given to the public.
Often these stories are churned out by journalists without the knowledge, expertise (or time) to actually validate or fact check the narrative being pushed, so they simply regurgitate the press release verbatim.
Whereas the journalists from interest have the expertise, knowledge and confidence to look at the underlying data and come to a balanced conclusion, rather than repeat the narrative from the press releases.
"There are no equivalent organisation who have an interest in prices falling"
It could be argued every employer in the nation should be cheering for cheaper housing in order to promote our nation as a place worth attracting skilled labour, a healthy lifestyle, and future prosperity.
As it stands the argument is:
'come to NZ to try and buy a house in a low wage economy and with some of the worlds most expensive houses where all of the financial/economic prosperity has been claimed already by greedy vested interests'
But it could be
'come to NZ and get established where housing is modestly priced and the lifestyle is good'.
LOL. I attended a business leader's meeting in the Waikato where the keynote speakers mesage was
"We get better productivity out of our workers than Auckland and Wellington because our employees cost on average 30% less. So, how are we to advertise and retain staff? Let's show them our out-of-town lifestyle blocks, and suggest that this lifestyle is worth the salary cut".
Unfortunately, at the pay rates they were talking about, prospective employees were not going be to affording those lifestyle blocks - and every single business there had the margins to up their pay rates.
I and another business friend walked out of the meeting in disgust.
OTOH, there are many Auckland-level salaries living in, and working remote from, the Waikato. They're doing well.
Imagine if employers actually took the time to appreciate the fact that much of the pressures on their wage bill are derived from increased housing costs. In a roundabout way, the payrises they do give are more or less propping up the unproductive sector of our economy.
Then you get into productivity issues because people genuinely feel they're putting in 40 hours a week just to fund the rent seeker's lifestyle.
I think it’s sometimes incompetence of the media, rather than malicious intent
Personally I'm of the volition that it is the pervasiveness of the woke agenda getting into all aspects of parliament and media. If media is afraid to publish or write articles that may offend someone, how are they ever supposed to publish anything? There are always different opinions on things and we are supposed to have a variety of views to benefit problem-solving societal issues. The softening of the media, govt sector and society as a whole becoming more fragile and easily shaken, is a downwards spiral. Without challenge we cannot grow and achieve, without disagreement we cannot find the best solution to problems and the best way forwards, without shock and offence we cannot temper our children, the generation that will one day control the country, to be resilient and pragmatic.
I think you are right Miguel. You see the same press release rehashed around the various news outlets, with the snappy quote (spin) just reprinted. People/readers don’t know this, I have quite a few friends telling me the market has bottomed and is going to rise.
IO, It would be equally factual to say "No end in sight in housing downturn" to asking "‘Has the property market bottomed out?"
It's not equal, "No end in sight in housing downturn" is a statement, a fact if you prefer, but asking "Has the property market bottomed out?" is simply asking a question, it's not stating that it has happened. "Has the property market further to fall?" would be equal and opposite to the question you don't like.
Hey Yvil, whens the REINZ HPI out?
But but but the spruke agents in Queenstown said they were special, and that Aussie buyers were making them immune to reality unfolding elsewhere. Did they tell a porky pie....surely not.
Rates higher for longer. More reality to apply.
cruise control
The latest figures also suggest the rate at which property values are declining is steady at -3.4% nationally over the three months to May, which was barely changed from -3.5% over the three months to April.
Its a long way till Oct 14th
Yip the data is saying the downward trend is continuing with little deviation.
How it can be justified that this data shows that the bottom is near, appears delusional to me (but hey, I could be wrong..I've been wrong on many things in the past).
To me, the bottom will be here after we are officially in a recession - and even then it could be 12 -24 months after we go into recession (and after the economy, employment market improve, and interest rates are lower). That is not now, it isn't next month and it isn't if/when National get into government. It is well after that.
I'm still picking 2027
why not just publish the monthly change and then talk about the interesting implications eg if the 4th month or 13th month previously dropping off the Quarterly or Annual numbers tells us anything?
So, I went to the QV website and laboriously clicked on each invisible dot on their 1/3/6m 1/5 yr graphs and get the following data. ( If I can do this in 10 mins, why can’t a single journalist do so??)
Here’s the real story:
“QV housing index fell 1.5% in May, its biggest decline since February’s 1.6%. The quarterly decline is steady at 3.5% while the annual decline was 14.6%, which is the highest rate recorded this year.”
here is the raw data:
Jan-23 2374
Feb-23 2337 -1.6% MoM
Mar-23 2305 -1.4% MoM
Apr-23 2292 -0.6% MoM
May-23 2257 -1.5% MoM
An extreme headline would be:
”House Prices Fall 270% Faster in May than April”
(1.5% / 0.6%)
The good thing about the QV data is the a breakdown by council territories. So data is specific, if a little laggy on account of it being settlement data rather than at time of purchase ( data in my area lags even more with indices that are 3 month and 6 month roll ups). Just looking at the New Zealandwide HPI gives no indication of areas where drops are large and drops are lower and the few areas that have had rises….. it’s all smoothed into a single figure.
So I use the release of this data on Interest.co.nz as a prompt to hop into QV and look at the my local area stats.
Bang on ITGuy…. the significant drop in prices started in the regions bang on 6 months after the big city drops in October last year. Still not back to our 2020 RVs yet, but a number of properties are selling at that now (from actual sales in June).
Surprised the property market in Queenie is not in freefall. The main reason why it doesn't appear to be is that sales volume will be small with distribution showing a right skew (outliers should have a strong effect in places like Queenie). The water cooler crew will talk about the market being 'resilient' but they don't really understand data.
OTOH, Queenie is also a 1%er-like haven and we know they've been making out like bandits. So the high cost of living will not bother them. But you still need the hoi polloi around to do the donkey work.
Once you have your arms wrapped firmly around their ankles, even the biggest wingers hit the ground in the tackle.
On Sunday, the introductory title of this Oneroof article read "Up 16% in 2024?" Today, I noticed its been changed to 2025. Second header reads "Experts on how much prices will rise now they've hit the bottom. The article then commences with "The housing slump is over...."
Even the "The Daily Planet" or the "Gotham Gazette" has more credibility!
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/43738
Another reason why the pro-property movement is in trouble.
Clearly a super hero kept the press in check in those towns.
That's because they misquoted the bank economist who made that forecast (up 7.5% in 2024, 16% in 2025). Like the NZ Herald reporter who deduced 'prices not back to their peak until 2027' from Treasury's half year fiscal update, when the budget update being reported on clearly shows a prices coming nowhere near the peak in the forecast period - two lines on a graph, very confusing 🙄
Our biggest boom and bust markets are experiencing the biggest boom and bust effects.
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Looks like Auckland money has dried up. Now that Australia is kindly handing out citizenship with no income or age limits, I think many retirees are rethinking their retirement plans. Why live in Tauranga when you can retire to the Sunshine Coast for half the price?
Exactly
On the slightly morbid plus side, it takes the pressure off of our health system.
Imagine the master stroke if the NZ govt offered one way flights to Aus and other incentives to retired folks to move over there (following all our nurses and Dr's). Freeing up housing and the health care system.
At a point it would actually be cheaper to pay retired people a super bonus if they sold up their assets here and moved across the ditch.
Wait though, the ASB with a completely straight face says that the NZ Housing Market is edging closer to a turning point.
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