The average value of New Zealand homes has dropped by more than $100,000 in the year to March, while average values in the Auckland Region are down by almost $200,000 over that period. The value decline in the Wellington Region is heading towards $300,000.
According to the CoreLogic House Price Index the average value of New Zealand homes peaked at $1,043, 261 in March last year. By the end of March this year it had dropped to $933,770, shedding $109,491 in value.
In the country's largest property market, Auckland, the average dwelling value declined by $198,680 over the same period, and in the Wellington Region it was down by $282,227.
Average values have also declined by more than $100,000 in North East Hamilton, Tauranga, Hastings and Napier, with Masterton and Carterton not far behind.
The table below shows how much average dwelling values have changed in the 12 months to March in all urban districts throughout the country.
The CoreLogic figures also suggest that the rate at which dwelling values are declining is increasing.
Over the three months to February this year the national average dwelling value declined by 1.5%, and over the 12 months to February it declined by 8.9%. But by March those rates of decline had increased to 2.4% and 10.5% respectively.
CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said the property market still had significant near term challenges, including a possible recession and a wave of mortgage repricing that still had to be fully worked through by borrowers and the banks.
"The housing market mood is pretty subdued at present, with both buyers and sellers having become accepting of tough fundamentals and lower prices," Davidson said.
"However the first marker for this downturn coming towards its conclusion - a mortgage rate peak - now seems to have been reached," he said.
The comment stream on this article is now closed.
| CoreLogic House Price Index | ||||
| Average Dwelling Values | ||||
| March 2022 Compared to March 2023 | ||||
| Territorial authority | Average value March 2022 | Average value March 2023 | $ Change | |
| Far North | $698,321 | $695,419 | -$2,902 | |
| Whangarei | $839,480 | $760,610 | -$78,870 | |
| Kaipara | $877,714 | $782,249 | -$95,465 | |
| Auckland - Rodney | $1,420,588 | $1,282,179 | -$138,409 | |
| Rodney - Hibiscus Coast | $1,320,398 | $1,186,174 | -$134,224 | |
| Rodney - North | $1,508,791 | $1,362,855 | -$145,936 | |
| Auckland - North Shore | $1,676,550 | $1,470,192 | -$206,358 | |
| North Shore - Coastal | $1,908,991 | $1,690,686 | -$218,305 | |
| North Shore - North Harbour | $1,608,449 | $1,397,936 | -$210,513 | |
| North Shore - Onewa | $1,365,261 | $1,186,557 | -$178,704 | |
| Auckland - Waitakere | $1,226,326 | $1,036,282 | -$190,044 | |
| Auckland - City | $1,765,043 | $1,555,084 | -$209,959 | |
| Auckland City - Central | $1,494,429 | $1,324,341 | -$170,088 | |
| Auckland City - Islands | $1,919,391 | $1,656,879 | -$262,512 | |
| Auckland City - South | $1,588,207 | $1,427,739 | -$160,468 | |
| Auckland_City - East | $2,205,282 | $1,913,235 | -$292,047 | |
| Auckland - Manukau | $1,370,259 | $1,158,087 | -$212,172 | |
| Manukau - Central | $1,062,299 | $891,302 | -$170,997 | |
| Manukau - East | $1,704,202 | $1,442,546 | -$261,656 | |
| Manukau - North West | $1,185,542 | $1,011,802 | -$173,740 | |
| Auckland - Papakura | $1,084,641 | $922,575 | -$162,066 | |
| Auckland - Franklin | $1,045,704 | $929,792 | -$115,912 | |
| Thames Coromandel | $1,159,754 | $1,168,046 | $8,292 | |
| Hauraki | $695,665 | $661,489 | -$34,176 | |
| Waikato | $773,472 | $756,194 | -$17,278 | |
| Matamata Piako | $741,685 | $702,246 | -$39,439 | |
| Hamilton | $891,884 | $816,620 | -$75,264 | |
| Hamilton - Central & North West | $821,597 | $772,850 | -$48,747 | |
| Hamilton - North East | $1,113,445 | $1,004,293 | -$109,152 | |
| Hamilton - South East | $823,451 | $750,402 | -$73,049 | |
| Hamilton - South West | $789,254 | $725,129 | -$64,125 | |
| Waipa | $912,488 | $857,779 | -$54,709 | |
| Otorohanga | n/a | $534,423 | n/a | |
| South Waikato | $478,088 | $460,386 | -$17,702 | |
| Waitomo | $386,142 | $391,241 | $5,099 | |
| Taupo | $882,732 | $842,365 | -$40,367 | |
| Western BOP | $1,060,921 | $1,005,247 | -$55,674 | |
| Tauranga | $1,185,907 | $1,059,931 | -$125,976 | |
| Rotorua | $725,385 | $646,775 | -$78,610 | |
| Whakatane | $782,692 | $746,449 | -$36,243 | |
| Kawerau | $427,556 | $397,231 | -$30,325 | |
| Opotiki | n/a | $549,271 | n/a | |
| Gisborne | $659,477 | $613,178 | -$46,299 | |
| Wairoa | $412,186 | $405,159 | -$7,027 | |
| Hastings | $903,004 | $776,524 | -$126,480 | |
| Napier | $895,290 | $756,576 | -$138,714 | |
| Central Hawkes Bay | $661,956 | $584,307 | -$77,649 | |
| New Plymouth | $728,891 | $714,319 | -$14,572 | |
| Stratford | $486,143 | $485,112 | -$1,031 | |
| South Taranaki | $434,768 | $441,905 | $7,137 | |
| Ruapehu | $409,340 | $382,336 | -$27,004 | |
| Whanganui | $572,865 | $503,751 | -$69,114 | |
| Rangitikei | $495,263 | $421,907 | -$73,356 | |
| Manawatu | $673,150 | $599,993 | -$73,157 | |
| Palmerston North | $748,529 | $655,737 | -$92,792 | |
| Tararua | $465,093 | $409,576 | -$55,517 | |
| Horowhenua | $662,887 | $582,008 | -$80,879 | |
| Kapiti Coast | $977,568 | $833,002 | -$144,566 | |
| Porirua | $1,010,455 | $811,221 | -$199,234 | |
| Upper Hutt | $931,727 | $735,817 | -$195,910 | |
| Lower Hutt | $985,062 | $782,127 | -$202,935 | |
| Wellington City | $1,274,691 | $1,024,691 | -$250,000 | |
| Wellington - Central & South | $1,199,083 | $963,763 | -$235,320 | |
| Wellington - East | $1,407,446 | $1,156,692 | -$250,754 | |
| Wellington - North | $1,210,878 | $977,999 | -$232,879 | |
| Wellington - West | $1,470,774 | $1,115,093 | -$355,681 | |
| Masterton | $682,675 | $583,005 | -$99,670 | |
| Carterton | $731,839 | $633,400 | -$98,439 | |
| South Wairarapa | $901,792 | $827,413 | -$74,379 | |
| Tasman | $856,447 | $812,051 | -$44,396 | |
| Nelson | $865,695 | $809,246 | -$56,449 | |
| Marlborough | $739,433 | $699,577 | -$39,856 | |
| Kaikoura | $598,853 | $605,272 | $6,419 | |
| Buller | n/a | $339,965 | n/a | |
| Grey | $328,982 | $351,218 | $22,236 | |
| Westland | n/a | $412,968 | n/a | |
| Hurunui | $592,393 | $622,753 | $30,360 | |
| Waimakariri | $690,646 | $698,585 | $7,939 | |
| Christchurch | $757,902 | $735,926 | -$21,976 | |
| Christchurch - Banks Peninsula | $803,553 | $804,283 | $730 | |
| Christchurch - Central & North | $867,766 | $836,179 | -$31,587 | |
| Christchurch - East | $577,465 | $581,684 | $4,219 | |
| Christchurch - Hills | $1,043,650 | $1,022,702 | -$20,948 | |
| Christchurch - Southwest | $733,297 | $695,099 | -$38,198 | |
| Selwyn | $868,673 | $816,929 | -$51,744 | |
| Ashburton | $507,618 | $530,807 | $23,189 | |
| Timaru | $503,717 | $517,887 | $14,170 | |
| MacKenzie | $658,722 | $730,020 | $71,298 | |
| Waimate | $404,842 | $434,515 | $29,673 | |
| Waitaki | $493,647 | $490,954 | -$2,693 | |
| Central Otago | $775,681 | $788,482 | $12,801 | |
| Queenstown Lakes | $1,684,142 | $1,698,949 | $14,807 | |
| Dunedin | $698,879 | $621,007 | -$77,872 | |
| Dunedin - Central & North | $722,376 | $634,120 | -$88,256 | |
| Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal | $662,771 | $587,612 | -$75,159 | |
| Dunedin - South | $659,979 | $587,164 | -$72,815 | |
| Dunedin - Taieri | $723,196 | $650,925 | -$72,271 | |
| Clutha | $414,742 | $406,914 | -$7,828 | |
| Southland | $477,292 | $477,555 | $263 | |
| Gore | $374,982 | $387,583 | $12,601 | |
| Invercargill | $481,586 | $452,338 | -$29,248 | |
| Auckland Region | $1,520,341 | $1,321,661 | -$198,680 | |
| Wellington Region | $1,185,036 | $902,809 | -$282,227 | |
| Main Urban Areas | $1,128,708 | $1,036,134 | -$92,574 | |
| All of Aotearoa | $1,043,261 | $933,770 | -$109,491 | |
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64 Comments
These numbers are rosier than REI HPI. No wonder why no doomer likes corelogic
And owners don't like the figures as behind the 8 ball
It’s all in the trend my friend.
HW2, you’ve been around long enough on this site to know the REINZ data is superior to core logic. Choosing the one that supports your narrative simply reduces the credibility of your point of view.
What you're saying is my cred must be inverse to interest rates. As when interest rates were low my cred remained high
I have proved my points so what do I care. You have a great day.
My mate is not having such a great day due to family reasons, I am more concerned about him than I am about what you think.
There's the mindset we all love.
Sorry to hear about your friend.
Cheers mental health stuff, the parents are good people, but takes a big toll
LOL at describing these historically phenomenally bad figures as “Rosier”
Corelogic figures are delayed and based on their model for updating ratings valuations.
The REI HPI is based on actual housing sales.
I’d be keen to buy a house right now. If I could afford a mortgage…
Just bide your time, everyone knows that when you have house price falls, everything else around it remains super healthy and they get a lot cheaper to own.
Itll be a surgical strike.
That's the thing, prices have come down a bit - but not fast enough to offset the increased cost to service a mortgage. Taking one out now is a gamble rates will decrease, the same as taking one out a year ago at 'max price to interest rate' was a gamble interest rates would stay rock bottom. That didn't play out so well...
patience is something the next generation lack - but need. probably what drove the whole fomo thing the last few years.
The way that interest rate hikes in NZ bite is very delayed, so as this year progresses the number of sellers will increase (as their budgets are cut from job losses and increases mortgage rates and inflation) and the number of buyers (and their budgets) will decrease for the same reason. Its basic math.
So wait and be patient, the time to strike will be when the reserve bank stop hiking for a while, there are distressed house sales and the economy seems weak.. the reserve bank will start to feel pressure to drop rates at that point. and houses will be at the best prices with few (very savvy at that point) buyers.
Just looked up opotiki on trademe, that's where I'd prefer to be. 6 months ago the was around twenty adds and the cheapest section was $300k, cheapest house around $500k. Now there's 3x the ads, cheapest section is $200k and heaps of (crappy) houses less than $500k.
Long way to go but it's gonna happen.
Along with dairy incomes. As a manager you're probably insulated
The dairy price is almost totally irrelevant to worker remuneration. The best "insulation" was the no foreign workers during COVID, negotiations were so much easier. It's a bit like saying rents will drop with house prices.
Good points and well made. 2013 here we come, I hope not.
The panic buying fueled by Central Bank stupidity is being unwound, and fast. Smart money sold out during that window. Let's face it the only way you couldn't sell in the last couple of years is by being really really greedy in your pricing demand.
Rates go up again today. Tax rinsing is being removed along with tighter regulation around landlord behaviour. Some will say anti landlord, I would counter with pro humanity.
More to come. The speculative have an increasingly sick feeling and taste in their mouths. Time for Pepto instead of advo on toast.
If the anticipation of schadenfreude was a currency you'd be a wealthy man.
To quote your ponzi pal from above "I have proved my points so what do I care".
PS I am more that fine, but thanks for your concern to my financial welfare.
I'm sure you get by, most champions of enterprise sound like you.
I agree with Pa1nter, your comment just has an unpleasant tone.
Reminds me of that other guy who'd make non stop posts about landlords being scum, but would ignore a mother and baby sleeping rough in a car.
There's something pretty Trumpian about devoting an inordinate amount of energy into trash talking.
Really. Try reading the years of "I'm so great" noise from members claiming savant like skills by interest only tax avoiding leverage driving ever greater property and rental prices, while openly mocking those that couldn't enjoy the security of owning their own homes. IMO this has been the main driver of inflation that is now punishing all members society especially govt employees (teachers, nurses etc) and the retired.
And people that saw this coming and prepared for it are unpleasant...
It’s a very good point, seldom acknowledged, that years of crazy house price inflation are the core underlying driver of current inflation.
And then you have the ironic futility of the OCR being hiked aggressively at the end of the boom. With crazy levels of debt, this puts a whole lot of households and SMEs under immense pressure, driving pushes for higher wages and putting pressure on SMEs to increase prices..,
Well if anyone was saying, "I'm so great" and mocking others they certainly should have been called out. I don't recall anything like that and suspect it was just your jaundiced interpretation of comments made by people who were just trying to help others with their investments.
The Man was cruel with his comments if I call correctly.
Come on man, during the boom property cycle we had all manner of people writing articles about how they had 30 properties and just "worked hard" to get them and "anybody could do it". At the time when we said "you are just using leverage, were born at the right time and had it handed to you by idiotic central banks" we were labelled as "DGM!" and told that we were jealous and we should "stop eating avocado on toast".
I don't get off on the pain that property owners are feeling, I am more angry at the blind fools that led us here. To me it looks like you are interpreting some of the comments above far more harshly than they are. Which probably indicates you are feeling it financially from the current market too - I feel for you.
I'm actually in a good position but came close to purchasing a property when mortgage rates were at their lowest. I feel I dodged a bullet there so probably have more empathy than some. It is common to read more into written comments than was actually intended by the writer.
Also you should have read some of the commentary on landlord facebook groups, holy cow. They were denigrating tenants something horrific and they still do to some extent. I remember raising with them that the sort of attitude they were portraying has literally led to multiple revolutions from the masses and they were exhibiting the lord like behaviour just like others had in the past, thinking they were an untouchable upper class. I was promptly removed from the groups I had joined.
The main victims of all this seem to be the first home buyers and potentially the younger generations who may end up in negative equtity.Or if forced to sell or moving overseas could mean they lose any equity they had and a deposit to buy another in the future. I purchased my first home in 2021 and it is worth less than I paid.
Sadly the Governments actions are actually anti renter. Anti landlord regulatory and fiscal actions = more risk for landlords, landlords selling = rents go up, poor credit renters don’t get properties. So renters in general pay more and the people who need rentals the most can end up homeless.
houses are cheaper so rent should be cheaper! Yeah right!
If only it worked that way. It’s holding costs E.g. running costs, mortgage rates and the market that drive rent levels. Mortgage rates are up, number of rentals down (due to investors selling as a result of Government tax policy) so rents are up. Nothing to do with house prices.
I live in a North Island regional capital. Last Saturday I received the latest real estate sales booklet for our city in my letter box. It was about as thick as a bible. There is so much property suddenly on the market and some nice new homes. Maybe some people have borrowed too much when rates were low. One thing is certain. More mortgagee sales are coming as not many houses are selling, especially those over $2m.
This was expected. Smart folk sold last year before the prices went off the cliff, now some haver to sell for various reasons (health, divorce, relocation) and have to accept the market price. Sadly the majority trend seems to be still a large proportion of vendors having unrealistic price expectations.
Many houses being taken back off the market currently after said sellers decide they would rather rent it out and pray the prices come back up eventually than sell off. Good chance to approach for a private sale and try your luck.
I'm seeing most homes around my region having extended settlement dates and the majority of buyers are conditional of selling their own home as part of offers.
The current market price is still up 25% from pre-covid. For Akl that means most are still up 200k plus in the past 3 years.
Look at the valuations back in 2012-2016. This is where the average price is going, once the massive crash plays out fully and hits a bottom over the next 3 to 6 years.
The last 18 months is just the start of crash if someone purchased a house today this time next year it will probably worth 20% less, many people who purchased over last 3-4 years are coming off low fixed mortgages once this happens many will struggle financially example million dollar mortgage at 3% 970 per week at 7% 1530 unfortunately even if they rent out house the weekly loses are huge some people have their living house connected to a rental financially and are unable to sell at huge loses. It’s going to be tuff time for anyone who is over leveraged.
I have a niece in that position. Payments doubled and the Bank would not let them re-fix for longer than a 1 year term.
Then add in the cost for house insurance, rates, maint. etc
Now their weekly payments are well above what they would pay for renting in the same area.
If one of them lose their job they will be in trouble.
What gets me is a large percentage of people in trouble would be young couples who were told that they couldn’t lose by people in the media and so called experts and a lot of people on here are still telling them to jump in while price’s are falling at record levels. The people that are speculators just pushed prices up to silly heights and the smart ones who could get out did, but the ones with huge leverage will more than likely go belly up.
I suspect (based on RBNZ numbers) that FHBs will make up less of the distressed than people think. But they will probably be the loudest, because it has been unfairest for them (my comment on the other page about choosing what you pay for notwithstanding).
For the last 5 years, both investors and OO trading sideways far outnumbered FHB in the market, and both groups (particularly OO) had some shockingly high DTIs. FHB DTI noticeably capped out around 7, but the other 2 groups were pushing up into the 9s, which was allowed due to LVR rules.
Indeed. These headlines are unhelpful.
I'm winning this one - Wellington - West$1,470,774 $1,115,093 -$355,681
Beat that for a paper loss! (after the equally ridiculous paper gain over the last few years.
If I had the cojones I would have sold November 2021 and rented - but I don't.
A good man is an honest man
I've seen much worse than that from people who thought they could make a quick buck during the FOMO, unfortunately. People are in a position where if it were me I'd be taking bankruptcy rather than trying to dig a way out of the enormous debt and negative equity.
If you like the house and plan to live there a good while it really doesn’t matter. Too many people confusing accommodation with speculation, one of the factors that has led to this mess
Still a big opportunity cost to pay for "at least I don't have to shift, and I like this place".
Be interesting to see what happens in Hawkes Bay over the coming few months. Inventory is well up on previous years but so will cash be now the insurance payouts have started flowing.
Insurance payouts go to the bank (if there is a mortgage). The Insurance doesn't pay for or insure the land (that is now worthless for residential use, due to no one wanting to live in a flood zone that has a 100% guarantee of flooding in the next 50 to 100yrs). The EQC insures the land, but payments from the EQC are very very very slow.
Well aware of that, yes. There is a big fight going on in the Pakowhai community at the moment between those who want the area red-zoned and those who want to try and rebuild. However, attendances at open homes in the surrounding towns have apparently ticked up (anecdata acknowledged). I can state for sure the rental demand is very high.
Personally I'm of the opinion the area should be made available for cropping purposes only, with centralised packhouses on higher ground, and no residences. Those who choose to crop the land will have to accept the risk that they could lose some or all infrastructure in the event of another natural disaster, and establish contingencies and price accordingly. Having personally visited and helped out in many of the disaster areas myself there are some harsh realities to be faced. Same goes for Esk Valley, parts of Puketapu/Dartmoor, and Twyford/Fernhill.
Long way to go.
Lots of boomers who are exiting the workforce, taking super and exiting to smaller properties. Not enough young people moving into starters, or upgrading to larger family homes IMO. My personal hypothesis is tons of boomers purchased houses as their retirement and they want to exit for a good price, but find themselves in a collapsing price environment.
It’s incredible to see the large number of very nice homes on the market here. I would have thought they were forever homes. Why are they being sold in such a terrible and worsening market. Too much debt?
By the time they return to the price listed in 2021, it maybe 2035 or 2040 given inflation. Lots of people aren't going to be around that long. Having your wealth tied up in illiquid assets always has a price.
Quite possibly its turned into a forever noose, now that the focus is on the actual size of the debt.
I had a 5 bed + office house built 4.5 years ago as nothing like this on the market to buy, I kept the TradeMe alert on and over the years very little have been available, now multiple suitable properties have come onto the market in the last few months
In AKL?
By buying up all the starter houses boomers have killed the ecosystem of buyers moving up to buy the next house. They have destabilized the housing chain.
The prices are still crazy. Price-to-income ratio still around 8.5...
Current interest rates with a DTI of 5 take over 50% of net income...
Prior crashes ended with price-to-income below 3.
But we'll be different!
Meanwhile, Barfoot are telling us the Auckland market is plateauing... https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131701717/barfoot-says-auckland-proper…
"Auckland’s largest real estate agency says buyers are starting to return and there are signs prices could be plateauing.
Barfoot said prices for properties it had sold were holding firm with those being paid over the previous two months, although the agency’s figures also showed the average sale price in March sat about 2% below the previous three-month average."
Then goes on to say sales are at a record low... Prices aren't falling as much as they otherwise would because vendors are refusing to accept the market price, and holding out for interest rates to correct or deductability to be reintroduced (if Nat's win). The kiwi psyche just point blank refuses to accept you may have to sell your house at a loss. I'd be more inclined to believe prices were plateauing if sales figures were also healthy, instead of at a historic low. The tide is being held back for now, but it's only a matter of time.
Also, RBNZ should implement DTIs now (even if the market is falling). They should be a permanent feature of any lending requirements purely as a measure to protect us from fiscal risks associated with insane DTIs.
"The kiwi psyche just point blank refuses to accept you may have to sell your house at a loss."
I have been looking at previous prices on houses for sale. The price the houses were bought for, are hundreds of thousands less then asking price. They are trying their luck in a very high priced market. I would say there is a lot of room to drop. I also think there is a long plateau. I refixed when interest went up 1% that was tough, not sure how a lot of these million dollar mortgages are faring with huge interest rate rises.
Every day more bad news for housing, at this rate house price’s will be down 50% from high by end of next year, and so many on here said no way would it come down 20% some said price would go higher. So many naive people just following blindly hopefully people on here did not get caught up by the FOMO and the few on here who were encouraging people to buy while knowing the market was tanking.
As soon at the OCR started rising in late 2021 (while banks were still loading up buyers with eyewatering DTIs) ......the writing was all over the wall for an epic crash! Crash it is and early days still!
""However the first marker for this downturn coming towards its conclusion - a mortgage rate peak - now seems to have been reached," he said."
And then a loud "HONK" as the next Black Swan swooped over his head.
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