The value of New Zealand homes is continuing to decline but the rate at which values are dropping is slowing.
According to property data company CoreLogic's House Price Index, the average value of all New Zealand homes dropped by another $5,580 in November, falling to $958,622 from $964,202 in October.
The average value on NZ homes has now declined by $84,639 since it peaked at $1,043,261 in March this year.
However the rate at which values are falling is starting to slow.
In the three months to October the national average value declined by 4.5%. But in the three months ended November it declined by a more modest 3.3%.
As the accompanying table shows, average dwelling values are now dropping in most urban areas and in the majority of districts values are also lower than a year ago.
The slide in values remains particularly severe in the Wellington Region where average values are now down by 15.9% compared to a year ago. Values in Lower Hutt have had the biggest fall in the entire country with average values down 19.4%.
However CoreLogic NZ Head of Research Nick Goodall cautioned against assuming the slowdown in the rate at which values are declining would continue.
"While these signs of moderation in falls will be encouraging to mortgage holders, we are cautious of it being a false dawn, with many sales transactions [which feed into valuation calculations] likely to have occurred before the recent round of pessimism hit the market, following the renewed expectations of increasing interest rates," he said.
The table below shows the current average dwelling values in all urban districts throughout New Zealand as at the end of November, with their percentage changes over three and 12 months.
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| CoreLogic House Price Index | ||||
| November 2022 | ||||
| Territorial authority | Average current value | 3 month change % | 12 month change% | |
| Far North | $710,993 | -0.4% | 8.0% | |
| Whangarei | $802,093 | -1.4% | 3.0% | |
| Kaipara | $856,478 | -4.8% | 6.0% | |
| Auckland - Rodney | $1,325,391 | -4.5% | 1.8% | |
| Rodney - Hibiscus Coast | $1,239,754 | -4.4% | -0.9% | |
| Rodney - North | $1,398,716 | -4.5% | 3.7% | |
| Auckland - North Shore | $1,505,542 | -3.5% | -3.5% | |
| North Shore - Coastal | $1,724,973 | -3.4% | -3.4% | |
| North Shore - North Harbour | $1,454,406 | -2.8% | -0.7% | |
| North Shore - Onewa | $1,205,672 | -4.3% | -7.0% | |
| Auckland - Waitakere | $1,083,186 | -3.2% | -3.9% | |
| Auckland - City | $1,570,724 | -2.8% | -4.3% | |
| Auckland City - Central | $1,319,971 | -2.3% | -4.2% | |
| Auckland City - Islands | $1,690,360 | -4.7% | 5.1% | |
| Auckland City - South | $1,412,446 | -4.1% | -5.8% | |
| Auckland_City - East | $1,970,568 | -2.1% | -5.0% | |
| Auckland - Manukau | $1,215,037 | -3.4% | -2.6% | |
| Manukau - Central | $941,296 | -3.6% | -4.3% | |
| Manukau - East | $1,502,192 | -3.1% | -5.4% | |
| Manukau - North West | $1,062,133 | -4.0% | -0.8% | |
| Auckland - Papakura | $985,724 | -5.8% | -0.6% | |
| Auckland - Franklin | $977,131 | -2.9% | 3.1% | |
| Thames Coromandel | $1,232,846 | -3.4% | 10.9% | |
| Hauraki | $658,191 | -4.6% | 6.6% | |
| Waikato | $774,500 | -4.1% | 7.2% | |
| Matamata Piako | $727,634 | -2.7% | 3.8% | |
| Hamilton | $837,692 | -3.0% | -2.7% | |
| Hamilton - Central & North West | $777,414 | -3.8% | -4.2% | |
| Hamilton - North East | $1,042,623 | -2.0% | -3.9% | |
| Hamilton - South East | $772,576 | -3.7% | -0.5% | |
| Hamilton - South West | $734,442 | -3.5% | -1.0% | |
| Waipa | $867,506 | -3.0% | 2.5% | |
| Otorohanga | $593,382 | 14.3% | 12.1% | |
| South Waikato | $453,515 | -2.4% | 1.4% | |
| Waitomo | $402,309 | 2.9% | 4.1% | |
| Taupo | $873,592 | -0.3% | 6.4% | |
| Western BOP | $987,128 | -5.3% | 2.2% | |
| Tauranga | $1,073,558 | -5.8% | -3.7% | |
| Rotorua | $680,965 | -2.8% | 1.3% | |
| Whakatane | $717,732 | -5.5% | -0.6% | |
| Kawerau | $408,611 | -4.4% | 1.9% | |
| Opotiki | $572,683 | -2.5% | 13.2% | |
| Gisborne | $627,933 | -2.7% | -0.8% | |
| Wairoa | $401,372 | 2.5% | 3.1% | |
| Hastings | $811,068 | -4.9% | -6.0% | |
| Napier | $785,205 | -5.1% | -10.3% | |
| Central Hawkes Bay | $608,663 | -4.8% | 1.7% | |
| New Plymouth | $734,049 | 0.4% | 6.2% | |
| Stratford | $476,961 | -5.7% | 2.2% | |
| South Taranaki | $444,275 | -2.4% | 10.5% | |
| Ruapehu | $387,205 | -3.3% | -1.1% | |
| Whanganui | $515,203 | -5.9% | -6.1% | |
| Rangitikei | $452,682 | -7.3% | -5.9% | |
| Manawatu | $637,364 | -1.4% | -4.2% | |
| Palmerston North | $668,707 | -5.6% | -9.9% | |
| Tararua | $444,979 | -2.2% | -2.7% | |
| Horowhenua | $585,107 | -5.9% | -9.5% | |
| Kapiti Coast | $875,912 | -5.9% | -10.0% | |
| Porirua | $826,772 | -8.7% | -16.0% | |
| Upper Hutt | $767,287 | -8.5% | -17.6% | |
| Hutt | $803,603 | -8.6% | -19.4% | |
| Wellington City | $1,072,692 | -5.9% | -14.0% | |
| Wellington - Central & South | $1,000,911 | -8.3% | -15.1% | |
| Wellington - East | $1,203,423 | -5.5% | -11.2% | |
| Wellington - North | $1,017,683 | -5.3% | -14.1% | |
| Wellington - West | $1,238,327 | -3.5% | -12.2% | |
| Masterton | $602,883 | -7.1% | -8.9% | |
| Carterton | $661,409 | -6.7% | -10.2% | |
| South Wairarapa | $822,518 | -7.5% | -8.0% | |
| Tasman | $817,748 | -2.6% | -1.4% | |
| Nelson | $812,282 | -2.7% | -4.1% | |
| Marlborough | $718,755 | -2.0% | 2.2% | |
| Kaikoura | $622,471 | -6.1% | 8.4% | |
| Buller | $311,431 | -1.0% | 8.0% | |
| Grey | $357,997 | 3.1% | 10.2% | |
| Westland | $387,293 | 0.4% | 12.6% | |
| Hurunui | $626,174 | 1.0% | 15.7% | |
| Waimakariri | $715,590 | -1.8% | 11.0% | |
| Christchurch | $754,780 | -0.8% | 4.9% | |
| Christchurch - Banks Peninsula | $797,148 | -2.8% | 5.1% | |
| Christchurch - Central & North | $870,297 | -0.3% | 5.0% | |
| Christchurch - East | $584,253 | -0.8% | 6.6% | |
| Christchurch - Hills | $1,054,423 | 1.9% | 8.6% | |
| Christchurch - Southwest | $712,596 | -2.0% | 2.1% | |
| Selwyn | $835,263 | -2.7% | 2.9% | |
| Ashburton | $529,241 | -0.5% | 9.7% | |
| Timaru | $508,213 | -1.5% | 7.3% | |
| MacKenzie | $733,135 | -3.2% | 16.0% | |
| Waimate | $426,221 | 1.0% | 15.3% | |
| Waitaki | $493,631 | 0.7% | 6.9% | |
| Central Otago | $780,035 | -0.1% | 11.8% | |
| Queenstown Lakes | $1,687,671 | 0.7% | 6.3% | |
| Dunedin | $647,273 | -1.4% | -7.0% | |
| Dunedin - Central & North | $663,241 | -1.2% | -6.3% | |
| Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal | $617,410 | 1.3% | -6.7% | |
| Dunedin - South | $611,261 | -1.7% | -8.3% | |
| Dunedin - Taieri | $674,746 | -2.2% | -7.2% | |
| Clutha | $389,741 | -3.4% | 0.4% | |
| Southland | $496,289 | 1.8% | 11.5% | |
| Gore | $394,263 | -0.3% | 6.4% | |
| Invercargill | $456,290 | -2.9% | -1.1% | |
| Auckland Region | $1,358,998 | -3.3% | -3.1% | |
| Wellington Region | $937,870 | -7.1% | -15.9% | |
| Main Urban Areas | $1,064,564 | -3.6% | -5.1% | |
| All of Aotearoa | $958,622 | -3.3% | -2.9% | |
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127 Comments
Significantly smaller 3 month decline I think adds to the data from the Reinz HPI last month showing a gain.
Forerunner to the sales market is the rental market which has been in equilibrium and stable for some time
As the economist says, so long as interest rates keep rising, prices will keep falling. Way to go yet, HW.
It seems boring to repeat but that info is priced in already. What is not priced in is a backdown or slowing of the interest rate program. Orr is particularly bearish at the moment so will be the last to realise that he has gone too far.
You having a laugh right? You think the average Kiwi has priced in the tone and forecast of rbnz?
You dont know me. Or others. Most people know how to recognise a storm on the horizon.
Was talking to an health and safety guy yesterday. I think his view of safety in the WF should mean a complete slowdown in activity. Thankfully not everyone sees life that way
However house buyers should learn buyer negotiating tactics and save themselves extra dosh.
"Most people know how to recognise a storm on the horizon"
No we don't - if this were true we would have avoided most of the market crashes in history.
A lot of people have known it was going to hit the fan for a couple years now.
No one's going to reliably know exactly when or by how much though.
'Most People" would rather believe good news and are totally unprepared for storms...
i.e. "Inflation is transitory", "RBNZ has got this", "Soft landing"
The banks couldn't recognize the storm on the horizon when they dropped their test rates to 5.8% last year.
It should be criminal. There should be some kind of reckoning for such irresponsible and predatory lending.
Which is why the test rates should be the upper limit the bank can set an individual mortgage rate to. Maybe the banks will take their test rates more seriously if there are potential financial repercussions for getting it wrong.
Will it result in higher mortgage rates? Probably. But the banks have mis-priced their mortgages based on a poor risk assessment. And higher mortgage rates will likely result in lower principal amounts borrowed, is that a problem?
I'd suggest the majority of buyers fall for "offers over" price ......
Housework’s if you had a look on any of the property investor Facebook groups (who lets face it, should indeed be well informed) i suggest you would change that opinion very quickly. People were just jumping on the Rich Dad, Poor Dad train and I suggest many will see housing and debt stacking is not the get rich wick scheme they thought.
i get you are clearly biased / constantly talked the market up but surely you can see change is coming?
Most average kiwis I know worry about fishing, price of gas, food, beer and children's clothes and school expenses. They are forecasting nothing until they remortgage or rents go up. Once that happens they are reactive. Not to mention, job losses, divorces/break ups, relocation for jobs. You also get tonnes of variables I have not mentioned. But the gist is people are reactionary not forward thinkers, thats why we had FOMO, it will be same on the way down. We have a long way to go, there will be drops, free falls and plateaus but the general trend will be the same, especially with tight lending, inflation and interest rates increases. Inflation is impacting us in our shopping and petrol, cant see why it wouldn't impact other people in shopping and house affordability.
Isn't it funny. We have built a world so comfortable around us where we can get money if we don't have a job, others to look after our money (banks), we can push a button for heat instead of having to get wood for it etc, that so many have lost the survival mechanisms until the world is tangible around them and they feel the pain. There will never be one right answer, but I feel that at the crux of it we all just want to have a simple and happy life with people around us to enjoy it with, and many by choice wish not to burden themselves with more to think about such as the economy and more. Maybe this distills down to what it is to live in New Zealand, where we can enjoy the simplicity of fishing, hunting, having a few beers.
It is the simple things that make me happy. Good friends, happy kids, happy wife, great outdoors, fishing, few beers. Bliss. New Zealand is great for the simple things, got to try not to over complicate things..
Core logic data has lag. It is based on sales that were completed in the period. Some of these will have been negotiated months ago. We need to look at auction data (reported on Interest daily) and REINZ data that is based on unconditional contracts.
Pretty sure it was Reinz data last month that showed a gain. What is that telling you about corelogic data
Oh that’s funny, you think the downturn is over? Go check the auction results, they happen in real time. Auction rooms are grim the last few days
"...you think the downturn is over"
4,892 housebuyers in October do not agree with you. That number includes 2,132 First Home Buyers.
I guess hype sells. "Go check" the actual figures
October's data was curious. It's either the market bottoming out, or it's a blip. Time will tell. Auction data since the OCR rise suggests it was a blip. Perhaps it's folks trying to beat the latest rise, time will tell (again). Personally I see interest rates forcing the value of residential property lower.
Look under the hood of the data and you may see that higher end properties, typically traded by owner-occupiers are still moving and often at good prices. Interest rates bite less here as often these have far higher equity or higher household incomes.
But look at the FHB and rental / investor end of the market. Investors report its harder to get deals that "stack up" and FHBs, if being approved, are being offered less to borrow. This means in many areas low end is falling but high end is rising more. That drags up the numbers, even in an index.
I agree and this will be what is preventing us from seeing the real data. Pull the top end of the market out and the rest are plummeting
9,185 in October 2020 and 7,190 in October 2021.
Well I have always said he’s going to overcook on the way up just as he overcooked on the way down. And I have always said interest rates will start coming down before most expect.
I agree with the sentiment. I think the RBNZs current trajectory will cause mayhem, so politically they will be expected to rein it in. But... what happens if inflation is still rampant? After all that is the RBNZs "official" concern.
We have already seen Kaumata Orr get a 5 year get-out-of-jail-free card, so regardless of what happens, he can retire or move on without having to care about his failure to the NZ public.
If inflation is still rampant we will do as we always do, survive as best we can and move any spare cash to where the best yield is. It will be telling when we see the next domestic inflation stats as to the spending level in NZ, of which I'd love to see a breakdown of spending for if anyone has any sources.
If you are going to mock Maori and the Reserve Bank at least get the word right.
Though if you were aiming for the word Kumata, which means a religion that propounds a evil doctrine, esp. one that is fatal to the society, then perhaps you are correct.
I am pretty confident that the demand destruction that is on its way will have a pretty big impact on inflation.
@ HouseMouse .
I reckon , again …
.
People need to be aware that house prices are going to continue to sink and will be a long way down to the bottom. If anyone is thinking of buying now the property you buy now will be worth less in a years time and the 20% deposit you have will be worth maybe 35% deposit this time next year. The one thing that will not happen is house price’s will rise over next few years, no rush saving a average of 11k per month.
well said .. buying in a falling market is just madness.
Just saw a >100sqm 3 bedroom brand new townhouse get a price change to ~$700k in an area where they were selling smaller 2 bedroom townhouses for just over $900k at the peak. That was startling.
You should not buy one, prices are going to drop another 25 to 30 percent, you can't catch a falling knife.
Steady. Wait for another .75 in Feb, and then more after that.
The worm has turned in the regions. People who went large in holiday towns in the last two years for asbestos clad shacks are either holding for 25 years, or loosing their shirts as the new mortgage reality squashes them.
There is more to come...
Raglan
One way in, one way out.
Next September who do you think all the people in negative equity are going to blame?
Yes Jacinda and Co. are likely to get the royal salute
Property speculators and their regulatory capture thinking and hoping they can get away without being tarnished with the legacy of what they've wrought upon New Zealand society in the last couple of decades, eh.
Someone else?
For some of them, just super bad timing.
But anyone spending big money on anything since March 2020 was taking a massive gamble.
Anyone buying a house now is taking a risk They will be cheaper next year even if interest rates rise.
They will be cheaper next year even if interest rates rise.
What's your evidence? Don't tell me it's your gut feel
Way to quote out of context. They said that they're taking a risk they will be cheaper. That's always the case with any asset
That depends entirely on what percentage of a deposit they have and how far the buyer sees the drop in prices going. If one has a 50% deposit and able to service the mortgage then it isn't so much of a risk. End of the day they'll still pay the mortgage and go about their lives
Housing investors on others buying houses: "There are loads of people who have bags of cash and won't need to borrow that much and aren't scared by prices dropping. They will always hold the market up"
Housing investors when buying properties themselves: "How much can you tick me up Mr bank manager? Can't you lend any more? Look at all my equity! I can handle it.."
Piggy Muldoon
Dont forget all the sales that are still to be registered at lower prices. Wellington the ____ has finally hit the fan. Will be very interested to see the drops come Feb
But isn't the government hiring all these workers? Or so the NACTs tell us.
Surely that will hold the prices up in Wellington
AKL still a long way to go. Do we know what the %change since Dec 2020?
Yes it would be very useful to see data on where prices are currently (as possible) compared to the point in time they started skyrocketing (in addition to the usual 1-year comparison). Has the froth yet been completely blown away?
Not even close
Drop? Really? The average values are still very very high compared to the quality of the houses and the average salaries in the country. It's horrible really.
Why do we have to pay more than 50% of our after tax income to just service the mortgage. That is a life of slavery to the banks and not a quality of life we expect to live in a country like NZ.
How has this happened? Did the fathers loot their sons and daughters of their quality of life?
The short answer is we exported a lot of manufacturing jobs, imported the goods we used to make, and borrowed heaps of money trading with each other in the service sector. I.e. many of the jobs of the last 30 years haven't been of much real value.
Agreed, NZ has lost too much production capability to overseas. Perhaps we will see in the somewhat uncoupling of the global economy at present, NZ businesses will start to capitalise on this and push the made in NZ rhetoric again. Then again human behaviour would dictate that the average joe will always go for the cheapest option, usually made overseas. The real challenge now is how do we minimise the loss to the workforce in knowledge and experience from the coming great retirement.
We shouldn't (and cannot) compete solely on price with other countries. Quality and innovation is where industries in developed economies thrive. We need to replicate the likes of F&P Healthcare and Xero many times over across our country.
That being said, the mountains we'd have to move to get our R&D and skills up to scratch makes me less optimistic about such a future for the economy.
Currently, our labour demands high wages to cover high living costs and not as a higher skill premium. That will also take forever to change.
Quality and innovation is where industries in developed economies thrive.
Financial reinvention and changing legislation is the way most developed economies have thrived.
Actual innovation and productivity improvement is a rare thing.
We are too compliance focused and centrally rules/hierarchy based in this country. Don't want to rock the boat too much.
You need to foster imagination and creativity and give the younger generation a sense of worth & stewardship, let them take risks but know they have the support there when needed.
Unfortunately we have simply incentivised speculation on land and other assets rather than investment in innovation and productivity.
We have gotten the results we've gotten because greedy entitled folk wanted their get rich quick schemes.
Investment in innovation and productivity is fairly well rewarded in NZ, provided it results in increased profits. Ever owned or run a business? The better ones are constantly looking for new ways to either reduce costs, increase sales, or both.
You can't decry greed when you also need it to drive the areas you feel need growth. Generally people don't back the concept of losing money slowly.
Dont forget about poor productivity painter. Some Kiwis are over paid for what they produce but still demand more. And if as employers we don't pay a lot, the decent staff get nabbed when there is a hot resources market in aussie.
"Some Kiwis are over paid for what they produce but still demand more"
Sounds like you're describing landlords there HW2!
"Some Kiwis are over paid for what they produce but still demand more"
Come work in government, you have defined the average public servant haha
12 months in Wellington around various government agencies was enough for me to completely lose faith in our public services and their capabilities. Dysfunctional (partly corrupt) and inefficient is the short way of summing up my Wellington experience.
If we were to drain the swamp we might be better off as a nation.
The sector has gone substantially worse since Labour took office. They lifted the cap on FTEs across the sector, which never led to the drop in consulting and contracting spend that was promised.
It is common practice for entire teams of overpaid staff in agencies to outsource all of their work to consultants and assume the titles of "contract/project/portfolio managers". This allows them to slack off in meetings all day and pass the blame on to the contractor for failing to deliver on projects.
Edit: there was a team of contractors ($80-100/hour) directly hired by MoH that managed consultants who negotiated and monitored emergency service contracts with providers (WFA, St. John's, etc.). That's three layers of contracted parties sitting between the health ministry and Kiwis needing emergency services, and we wonder why the health system in NZ is going to s**t.
Martin Jenkins' Review of St John | Ministry of Health NZ
100% correct. Must be a wonderful gig being a policy consultant in Wellington!
What we see in my company is a cycle based on changes of government.
When Labour gets in FTE headcount increases are allowed, so departments hire the people they need. We receive an influx of job applications from folk who'd been on the lucrative contracting gravy train under National, but don't want the lower-paid public sector full time jobs.
When National gets in, FTE headcount is frozen or cut and there is far more resort to contractors and consultants. We see a bunch of people bouncing around contracting gigs to make more money, so they're no longer seeking our full time private sector jobs. Entities also then spend more on contractors due to losing in-house knowledge.
many consultants were former public sector workers "doing the same thing they used to do, but for a lot more money". - Granny Herald
Round and round it goes.
100%. I've tried to explain to people that the obsession with keeping public sector headcount down and pay low does not result in any savings. The public end up paying more because the work that needs to be done gets contracted out to private sector consultants who cost more money.
They do not seem to understand that most of the work the public sector do is not optional, it has to be done or things fall apart. The idea that the private sector is more efficient is a complete myth.
I heard the private sector is more efficient because 100 years ago there was a competition somewhere between the Government and Private Sector on who could make the best and most cost effective dirigible. Apparently the private sector won, so that settled things once and for all.
Oh a bit like my colleague's partner who is head of procurement at some department. She can earn something like $200k p.a. fixed employment or $250 per hour as a "contractor".
Effectively we've been selling our relatively desirable lifestyle to immigrants to pay for our poor productivity. This has underpinned our obsession with property - without such high population growth and money coming in from offshore, it's hard to envisage how the property bubble and construction sector could have been sustained to this level, low interest rates or not. And perversely as the population grows, that lifestyle attraction becomes somewhat degraded (ask any long term Auckland resident or those who have fled elsewhere).
Good comment ACB.
A report from Trade Me Jobs in Sep 2022 found that retail and hospitality and tourism jobs continued to be in demand, with four listings featuring in the most-viewed listings on the site, especially among overseas jobseekers.
Know of one "fleeing", ~24, moving overseas either UK or Oz with the intention of not returning in the immediate future. I read that as being at least ten years away.
Prices still have a very long way to fall before anybody in their right mind should be considering being a FHB in "Aotearoa".
Prices, or interest rates.
Anyone taking a punt that we're going to have an 8% interest rate environment for more than about 2-3 years is brave.
Agree.
5% interest rates by December 2024 guaranteed!
LOL
You know what, I miss the prophets teachings. Less so the rambling that accompanied it, but that second scroll was building to be a doozy
But were the hot takes made from his private yacht in the Maldives
Or an inflatable paddling pool in Hawke's Bay
There in lies the allure and the mystery
It didn't stop you though. If I am not mistaken you have been looking for another, easily denied of course.
I agree with your statement however you don’t require quotation marks around Aotearoa, it’s a normal proper noun.
As an example of correct quotation, I’m a FHB going to a lot of open homes for research purposes. So often the agent will tell me: “It’s a great time to be buying!”. I always reply that it remains to be seen. It’s certainly a better time to be buying compared to this time last year, however I doubt it’s a good time to be buying compared to 6…12…maybe 18 months time!
Don't worry, its Brock showing his love for all things Maori.
This comment has been deleted because we do not allow promotional material in the comment stream.- GN
It is those one or two property that are being sold at decent price (Will be consider High in current market) is delaying market from a crash.
Not really, as they dont push averages very far.
The REAL TAKEAWAY
Is the 60 odd that did not sell, most of them not even getting a low ball bid. The building inventory will only clear once prices fall. Welcome to Markets 101. These now act as overhang.
Remember too that properties are being withdrawn from the auction process as they get close to the auction date and have no bidders. So the actual stats are going to be worse.
The trend is down 3.3 in last 3 months so around 11k down each month and growing on million dollar properties . As the is just the start of downturn next year we will see larger monthly falls.
The December data is going to look Horrible. it could well be
Worst NZ Property Market Month Ever
I'm betting on January being worse once all the delayed sales figures are locked in over the xmas period by RE agents.
Well done Jacinda and Labour, the only PM and party to deliver on their election promises to bring house prices down in the last few decades. On that metric, surely best PM and government in living memory.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/continuous-disclosure-think-mortgag…
Now the real estate agent lobbyist are highlighting that interest rate will peak at 9.5% and if they are saying 9.5%, it cannot be without any hidden agenda - may be they feel is still not bad as could go worse OR trying to highlight a higher figure now, so can downplay when banks announces next forecast in 8s.
Careinaz why dont you tell the full story. Just a quick skim of the article is enough to show me your completey biased
"Fixed interest rates, however, the dynamic is quite different there. He said the best one-year rate was currently around 5.9 per cent for the top five lenders. “Maybe that won’t breach 6.5 per cent because the markets have already factored in that the Reserve Bank would be increasing the cash rate.”
The truth the whole truth and nothing but the truth, so help me God 🥱
I think the REINZ and it’s members have a big problem. They have spent a number of years, and even very recently, hyping up prices. News releases only showing the most favourable data (year on year increases, when drops had already started) and as agents only quoting the outlier high sale in the area. Now it’s a lot of work to get vendors to price reasonably, and is a lot of work and angst for them. I have provided counselling ( on house inspections) to a couple of agents who don’t want to accept listings ( as the vendor expectation is too high) or are trying to continue to market properties were vendors have turned down what they, and I think are very good offers.
They have a vested interest in increased prices and their income relies on houses selling. They are in a market in decline, low sales, too many agents so many are or have already left the industry, and those hanging on will do anything to keep food on their table. Sales is always a tough game if you are peddling in high value items that the majority of people don't necessarily need to buy at any given point.
And I think that has been part of our overall housing problem. Agents have been hyping things up for quite some time. It used to be that agents were quite fair in how they represented a property and as a young first home buyer we got very useful advice from a number of them. I remained personal friends with agents a few decades back because they were fun people I liked them. Now I don’t encourage any social interaction. I also caution any buyer from taking any agent advice now. I have found them to be gleeful in multibid situations were a buyer has badly miscalculated and put in an embarrassingly high bid, and I find them continually talking up prices…. But I think you are right that now their voices are a little shaky and they are just hopeful that they find someone to pay the price. There are far too many agents and this downturn will help balance the numbers. Suspect the commission model for employing agents is does not support the correct balance of RE agent workforce.
Another sign of a property bubble that Robert Shiller points out in his book "Irrational Exubernace" is when property agents and market commentators suddenly become celebrities that everyone knows.
Similar that we all know who Tony Alexander and Ashley Church are.
If this were a normal housing market, we would have very little idea who these individuals are (as they wouldn't be given the airtime to pump up a market past fundamentals).
Remember all of the airtime that Saylor was getting when Bitcoin was pumping - and yet you hardly ever see him these days. Same concept, just different time duration of popularity.
Entitlement to free wealth from housing became so strong that all morality went out the window. NZ in recent times.
REA Billboards. <eye-roll>
I think Tony sums it up beautifully when he says "trying to pick the peak of interest rates is a mugs game".... didn't he predict interest rates had peaked 2 months ago???
Yes I often find the property perma-bulls views full of paradox.
Tony to me reminds me of Rhys Darby these days - even he can't tell if what he is saying is true or not - just like a good comedian.
Wow so my write up of the stuff that sold at Barfoots was removed as promotional material, when it was the type of anaylsis that many want to see......
I do not work for Barfoots, I was merely reporting publically available information.
I review your auction page regularly as it puts some of the very dated data into perspective. It’s quite time consuming to look at each sale and then what it’s previous CVs and sale prices were. Is it a problem to share this on the site, or is it that the B and T page got linked? Can we post sales and just use the QV link you provide for the property?
Business as usual here in the New Plymouth bubble...feels like lagging behind rest of NZ as usual!
Why would anyone listen to HW2 hes obviously a shill.
There is no rebound if banks are testing 8%+, keep dreaming.
And hope that Luxon abolishes the foreign buyer ban. You need cash buyers. Fast.
I could have a 50%+ equity on an average Auckland home and I'm not buying.
Not touching these sh!tboxes until Fed Powell actually pivots.
The housing market lags, plenty of time.
I'm seeing a lot more of these lately on Homes estimates:
*The HomesEstimate for this property has been updated using an agent appraisal range. This is not the actual appraisal range for this property and is a guide only. The appraisal was completed in compliance with the REA code of conduct and is not a valuation.
Accompanied by a massive leap in the graph on valuation. Typically on places that have either been on the market for a long time or had at least one failed marketing campaign behind them.
It would be interesting to track the ultimate selling price back to that valuation point and see just how accurate they are. Theoretically you'd think an in-person estimate from a market participant should be more reliable, but ... I have my doubts.
Agents updating the underlying statistical data compromises any integrity that homes.co.nz has. Any jagged pricing increase is clearly manipulation, and in today's market...it just funny.
Can vouch, the Nelson prices are by my estimate anywhere from 30-100k off the market, location dependent, and they are dropping by the week. Have seen houses sell August asking 850k sold 710k
I don’t know how they claim to use statistical methods to calculate an estimate when it is open to any agent to manipulate it…from what I hav3 seen it is often shifted up to or over the asking price. This does not always turn out to be the sale price. Also the algorithm does seem to fully log sale prices if the agent has not filled it in ( TBC a placeholder for sale price).
I sometimes use Homes.co.nz to bookmark places just to get a reminder when the sold price is eventually updated. I've noticed they don't actually update the estimate when they update the sold price, so in many cases you have a 'market estimate' that's $100,000 or $200,000 higher than the actual market price the place sold for 4 weeks ago. Madness hahaha.
I have noticed this to. I would hazard a guess they are incredibly inaccurate.
Reading the comments, you would think that people have not heard of countercyclical
Off you go…
Be my guest
God I love the comment section on this website.
You need help
One of the property within our complex went to auction this Tuesday. Highest bidder was 750k, call this Unit O. The same house next door, Unit P was sold in early 2021 for 1.05 mil. Seller of course didn't sell given the 2 houses are identical but crazy to think how fast the market has changed.
Would units sell lower than rest of market as you don't necessarily own land you can do whatever you please with?
call it unit but these are 2 full section houses despite having a common driveway. So these are not units, they're houses.
Always interesting to see examples of sales ( or not). There have been a number of posts that give examples of what borrowers can afford now compared to 2021….. it’s a huge difference and probably explains all of this difference.
The Valley values were cooked. Reap what you sow
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