The average value of New Zealand homes fell by $33,599 over the last four months, while the average value of homes in Auckland declined by $85,452, according to the CoreLogic House Price Index.
The Index tracks the value of all of NZ's developed residential properties, excluding vacant land, based on sales data over the previous three months.
It shows that the national average value has declined in each of the last four months, to $1,009,662 in July from $1,043,261 in March.
In the Auckland region the drop in value has been greater, falling to $1,434,889 in July from $1,520,341 in March.
The table below shows the current average dwelling values in all urban areas throughout the country and how much they have changed in percentage terms compared to three months ago and 12 months ago. This shows dwelling values are now in decline in most of the North Island and also the top and bottom ends of the South Island.
Even in Queenstown-Lakes, which has had one of the most buoyant property markets in the country, average values fell by 2.4% over the three months to July.
According to CoreLogic, the current market downturn became more entrenched in July.
It says the 2.5% decline in the national dwelling value over the three months to July was the largest quarterly drop in housing values since 2008 when the market was in retreat from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
The biggest decline in average values over the three months to July was in Wellington City's western suburbs where the average value dropped by 8.8%, followed by Porirua at 8.4%.
In Auckland, average values declined in all major urban districts with the falls over the three months to the end of July ranging from -5.5% in Manukau's eastern suburbs to -0.4% in northern Rodney.
Although average values across Christchurch were up by 1.3% over the three months to July, they may also be heading for a fall because July's average value was down by $12,108 compared to June. That could signal the start of a drop in values in Christchurch too.
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| CoreLogic House Price Index | ||||
| Three months ended July 2022 | ||||
| Territorial authority | Average current value | 3 month change % | 12 month change % | |
| Far North | 718,432 | 1.6% | 23.2% | |
| Whangarei | 834,982 | -0.6% | 14.0% | |
| Kaipara | 902,044 | -1.5% | 17.6% | |
| Auckland - Rodney | 1,411,575 | -0.6% | 16.6% | |
| Rodney - Hibiscus Coast | 1,324,061 | -0.8% | 13.4% | |
| Rodney - North | 1,487,862 | -0.4% | 19.1% | |
| Auckland - North Shore | 1,587,715 | -4.7% | 7.2% | |
| North Shore - Coastal | 1,822,921 | -4.3% | 7.2% | |
| North Shore - North Harbour | 1,514,113 | -5.1% | 7.4% | |
| North Shore - Onewa | 1,283,567 | -4.8% | 5.7% | |
| Auckland - Waitakere | 1,143,634 | -4.9% | 7.5% | |
| Auckland - Central suburbs | 1,651,363 | -4.0% | 7.4% | |
| Auckland City - Central | 1,385,092 | -4.6% | 7.7% | |
| Auckland City - Islands | 1,778,896 | -4.7% | 21.4% | |
| Auckland City - South | 1,490,904 | -4.1% | 6.2% | |
| Auckland_City - East | 2,069,982 | -3.6% | 6.3% | |
| Auckland - Manukau | 1,285,727 | -4.7% | 11.7% | |
| Manukau - Central | 1,007,016 | -4.5% | 10.9% | |
| Manukau - East | 1,576,080 | -5.5% | 6.9% | |
| Manukau - North West | 1,129,044 | -3.8% | 13.3% | |
| Auckland - Papakura | 1,064,301 | -1.1% | 18.1% | |
| Auckland - Franklin | 1,024,428 | -2.6% | 17.3% | |
| Thames Coromandel | 1,312,216 | 12.2% | 21.0% | |
| Hauraki | 679,490 | -0.5% | 18.3% | |
| Waikato | 816,846 | 9.8% | 21.5% | |
| Matamata Piako | 755,716 | 4.0% | 20.7% | |
| Hamilton | 875,361 | -1.8% | 8.7% | |
| Hamilton - Central & North West | 820,329 | -1.1% | 7.8% | |
| Hamilton - North East | 1,077,622 | -2.4% | 10.7% | |
| Hamilton - South East | 810,672 | -0.4% | 8.8% | |
| Hamilton - South West | 774,049 | -3.1% | 5.5% | |
| Waipa | 899,190 | -1.6% | 12.3% | |
| Otorohanga | 520,182 | -1.7% | 3.7% | |
| South Waikato | 472,008 | -0.8% | 19.3% | |
| Waitomo | 382,794 | -3.9% | 27.4% | |
| Taupo | 885,230 | -1.4% | 14.7% | |
| Western BOP | 1,064,306 | -0.8% | 20.2% | |
| Tauranga | 1,153,569 | -2.4% | 16.0% | |
| Rotorua | 705,938 | -3.3% | 8.5% | |
| Whakatane | 761,997 | -3.2% | 12.2% | |
| Kawerau | 431,013 | -1.3% | 12.1% | |
| Opotiki | 586,554 | 7.9% | 12.0% | |
| Gisborne | 660,459 | -1.0% | 11.7% | |
| Wairoa | 423,005 | 4.2% | 15.9% | |
| Hastings | 863,492 | -2.1% | 8.2% | |
| Napier | 839,802 | -6.1% | 3.0% | |
| Central Hawkes Bay | 652,943 | -1.5% | 20.9% | |
| New Plymouth | 739,804 | -0.9% | 15.4% | |
| Stratford | 509,216 | -0.4% | 14.1% | |
| South Taranaki | 461,630 | 2.3% | 23.6% | |
| Ruapehu | 397,871 | -5.8% | 7.1% | |
| Whanganui | 555,571 | -0.7% | 6.8% | |
| Rangitikei | 497,735 | -2.8% | 14.3% | |
| Manawatu | 667,815 | -0.3% | 8.9% | |
| Palmerston North | 720,144 | -2.3% | 0.9% | |
| Tararua | 463,486 | -2.1% | 5.5% | |
| Horowhenua | 638,106 | -1.2% | 5.2% | |
| Kapiti Coast | 945,695 | -2.8% | 3.8% | |
| Porirua | 918,165 | -8.4% | -1.6% | |
| Upper Hutt | 854,666 | -5.8% | -2.0% | |
| Lower Hutt | 908,531 | -4.9% | -1.5% | |
| Wellington City | 1,172,100 | -7.2% | 0.7% | |
| Wellington - Central & South | 1,125,047 | -6.0% | 3.1% | |
| Wellington - East | 1,297,424 | -7.4% | 1.7% | |
| Wellington - North | 1,103,053 | -7.6% | 0.1% | |
| Wellington - West | 1,324,634 | -8.8% | -0.6% | |
| Masterton | 680,621 | -1.5% | 9.4% | |
| Carterton | 710,794 | -5.1% | 5.6% | |
| South Wairarapa | 936,726 | 2.8% | 13.9% | |
| Tasman | 868,332 | -0.3% | 11.3% | |
| Nelson | 850,301 | -1.7% | 7.7% | |
| Marlborough | 739,393 | -1.1% | 9.1% | |
| Kaikoura | 671,366 | 5.1% | 18.8% | |
| Buller | 319,690 | 11.6% | 16.5% | |
| Grey | 364,839 | 7.3% | 21.0% | |
| Westland | 391,408 | 8.8% | 15.7% | |
| Hurunui | 628,184 | 9.5% | 25.8% | |
| Waimakariri | 734,812 | 7.5% | 26.2% | |
| Christchurch | 771,108 | 1.3% | 19.6% | |
| Christchurch - Banks Peninsula | 860,399 | 6.8% | 23.0% | |
| Christchurch - Central & North | 881,101 | 0.7% | 18.1% | |
| Christchurch - East | 596,998 | 3.3% | 20.5% | |
| Christchurch - Hills | 1,067,034 | 3.9% | 18.7% | |
| Christchurch - Southwest | 736,033 | -0.4% | 20.6% | |
| Selwyn | 862,014 | -1.7% | 24.7% | |
| Ashburton | 531,249 | 3.0% | 17.8% | |
| Timaru | 519,502 | 2.8% | 15.8% | |
| MacKenzie | 752,093 | 12.9% | 19.4% | |
| Waimate | 423,530 | 3.2% | 17.5% | |
| Waitaki | 497,075 | 1.6% | 15.9% | |
| Central Otago | 788,171 | 3.3% | 16.2% | |
| Queenstown Lakes | 1,669,339 | -2.4% | 20.5% | |
| Dunedin | 673,440 | -3.0% | 1.3% | |
| Dunedin - Central & North | 685,673 | -3.7% | 0.4% | |
| Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal | 643,027 | -5.7% | 3.1% | |
| Dunedin - South | 641,385 | -2.2% | 2.1% | |
| Dunedin - Taieri | 700,659 | -2.7% | 0.9% | |
| Clutha | 402,587 | -1.9% | 8.4% | |
| Southland | 487,716 | 0.9% | 15.1% | |
| Gore | 403,640 | 6.1% | 11.9% | |
| Invercargill | 474,422 | -1.1% | 8.4% | |
| Auckland Area | $1,434,889 | -4.0% | 9.5% | |
| Wellington Area | $1,126,522 | -3.7% | 7.5% | |
| Main Urban Areas | $1,036,727 | -6.7% | -0.3% | |
| Total NZ | $1,009,662 | -2.5% | 9.5% | |
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143 Comments
Prices falling in urban areas, yet compared to a year ago, nothing.
Should the number of housing consents remain the same, it looks like "business as usual".
You are ignoring that between July 2021 and December 2021 prices spiked significantly. The market has since erased all those gains.
Apparently you have to measure things by whichever period looks most favourable.
Averages on low samples.
Actually, you should take the inflation into consideration, then you realize, it probably has reached a point of over-correction.
9.8 and 12.2 GAIN for ycato and tems coromandel last 3 months respectively. Be quick
The strong Coromandel values are surprising (I sold a house there a year ago). Are older people moving out of Auckland to the Coromandel for lifestyle? Are some working age people moving to Coromandel and work remotely?
Still good timing Yvil. Were you happy with the price
Very, more than doubled in 5 1/2 years
Did you cut down some trees ?
Yes I did but this wasn't the reason for the gain in value, I just bought really well at the end of 2015, when the Coromandel market was really quiet. I also thought that values would rise as a result of the high LVR restrictions put in place for the Auckland area only in 2015.
Your Perfect Timing and Perfect Tree Cutting Skills never ceases to amaze me.
Only you Yvil could buy in a Falling Market and make a Million.
You Truly are Dr Yvil having the last Laugh.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7edeOEuXdMU
Tree cutting? Did I miss something
Yvil - You did say you have made over 1 million in 8 months from buying a property in August 2022 just from cutting trees.https://www.interest.co.nz/property/115376/around-quarter-properties-selling-under-hammer-barfoot-thompsons-auctions I'm not sure how one does that considering it's only April 2022 ? But I will assume you meant August 2021 ?
It was very nice of HouseMouse to throw you a lifeline regarding the trees and permits etc, and you certainly grabbed a hold of that for dear life.
Yvil gets a little mixed up with numbers as he spends a lot of time watching YouTube tutorials on how to improve his grammar and sharpening chainsaw.
Yvil has probably just demonstrated something very important. When you buy property you are not buying an index fund of the whole NZ property market. You are buying an individual property. Anything could happen to that particular property regardless of the rest of the NZ property market. If you are active and decisive you could buy something below the market rate. Or add value.
Thats why if you are proactive and educated you make your own destiny rather than letting your decisions be based off the unpredictable fluctuations of the overall market. Or even worse thinking you can pick the bottom.
Yeah but Jasmine - Making a Million in a Falling Market, me homies don't think so !
People that know what they're doing will do best in a falling market.
Trouble is most people think they know what they're doing. Like how 80-odd percent of people will say they're above average intelligence.
People who claim to know what they are doing with property, also claim that property prices never fall. So how would they ever know what they are doing in a falling market?
#paradox
As I said, much larger supply of self appointed experts than actual experts.
Anyone who knows what they're doing recognises nothing is guaranteed.
Wrong Again.
7% Interest Rates This Year, is Guaranteed !
I prefer the scrolls chat than this message repeated.
Yip.
Nothing in this life is guaranteed, everything is a risk. Doing nothing is also a risk. One people often don't recognize, but can pay dearly for.
I think it's a proven fact that pessimism and scepticism are a good way to keep you broke.
Tell that to the people that went all in on Bitconnect.
Very well said Jamin! But only people who DO, understand this, those who prefer to WATCH and eat popcorn, don't get it. Then they post sarcastic comments or blame circumstances for their own inaction and failures!
Yip, focus your attention on what you can control, not what you can't.
Also acknowledge that political advocacy has its place, as do ethics, if we want society overall to be a pleasant place to live. I've spent enough years living in developing countries with gated subdivisions the wealthy hide in from the effects of their policies and practices to know I'd prefer NZ not to go that way.
Talking about advocacy and ethics, and advocating and being ethical are two different things however.
All the mechanisms for change are there but no one's stepping up to the plate.
They are. Some even choose to invest only in commercial property (aside from businesses) because they don't want to profit from and contribute to the problem, as they see it. Some choose not to invest in weapons companies, for similar reasons. Personal bases.
Others advocate and vote for those who promise change. And have been disappointed by successive major party governments who ran on doing something about the problems. There does seem to be a lack of sincerity in politicians to act on major issues in NZ.
True, but at the end of the day, if the property market is going down significantly, your property investing abilities will be somewhat secondary to that. And the same goes the other way too. A lot of people kid themselves about their investing skills in a rising market.
Of course, a falling market makes things a lot harder, just as a rising market makes most look like experts. IMO buying with the hope the market goes up is speculating, not investing, knowing how to create value is investing.
Did you pay income tax on the profit you made? ;-)
I did not pay tax on the capital gain, at the time of purchase, the bright line test was 2 years and I did not buy the house for capital gain, but for the high rental return I extracted by renting it out on Airbnb. I did obviously pay tax on the rental income.
No one in New Zealand has ever bought a house for capital gains, it seems over the last couple of decades.
They don't buy for the capital gains, but if you suggest they might have to give some of those gains they weren't looking to get to the government....
Schrodinger's Gains
A lot of new builds and upper end of the market is strong, think Hahei, Cooks and Whitianga. Keeps the median high.
Actually the TCDC council makes new builds difficult and there are not enough for the demand. That is what I read
"The national average value has declined in each of the last four months, to $1,009,662 in July from $1,043,261 in March." A fall of 3.2% over the last 4 months. It feels like values have dropped more than that.
Isn't CoreLogics data ~3 months behind? How does this correlate with what REINZ was telling us back in April/May?
That's because we focus on stories and not statistics. I heard a guy who heard a guy about something selling for 150k under asking.... this means more to us than on average the needle shifting x.
A bit like "everyone I know is leaving NZ".
Nothing gets Pa1nter in more of a froth.
✈️✅
If everyone emigrated at your pace the place would be bursting at the seams.
"A bit like "everyone I know is leaving NZ". "
I am feeling a bit concerned for you Painful 1. If everyone you know is leaving NZ then what friends will you have ?
MMXXII, could you stop with the name calling, you did it to someone else a few days ago, can you not rise above it please?
Its good to have a little bit of fun Yvil. I hope those people you refer to are not your other accounts ?
I give you full Permission to make fun of my name. I don't take these types of things personally, and nor should you.
Have a great day.
Unlike many, including yourself, I have only ever had one single account.
Making fun of others is not really my thing, nor is cynicism and sarcasm. Each to their own.
I only believe in 1 account. Unless you are suggesting I have 40+ accounts ?
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/116973/number-homes-sale-has-more-d…
While I don't really care what you call me, someone that repeatedly destroys their credibility so much they need to keep creating new personas likely does take things personally.
Spose this is cheaper than therapy.
You have spent plenty of time on this site calling posters "DGM's". Seems hypocritical to ask people to "rise above name calling"
He’s also attacked the government a lot, criticised their welfarism, called out bludgers and said he wouldn’t have beneficiaries as tenants. Then it turns out his motel has been used for emergency housing.
The guy is full of hypocrisy.
Someone name dropped his motel on here recently. I don't recall what it was called, but at the time I googled it and.....well....emergency housing is the only thing that motel is really good for.
HM, I said I would never rent a house to WINZ people and I absolutely stand by that! Because it's far too hard work and you need someone on site to look after many of these people who behave so badly, get into fights, drink, do drugs and damage stuff. That's exactly why we have these people at the Motel, because we can, and indeed we need to supervise them 24/7. That's also how I know first hand how much work WINZ people are.
There is not contradiction or hypocrisy at all HM !
Moteliers deserve what they earn IMO Yvil. It is not a job I could handle looking after the Winz "clients". I guess that the majority of the beneficiaries are fairly easy most of the time, it's the rest of the time that scares me. Overall emergency housing costs are going to increase hugely in future so if we think the current bills are high we are going to be truly truly shocked.
Motel millions for emergency housing are 'guaranteed' Government cash, Hamilton motel leader says | Stuff.co.nz
https://i.stuff.co.nz/waikato-times/news/300642739/motel-millions-for-e…
Thanks for the link HW2! Yes it's indeed a lot more work accomodating WINZ people. Some of the rents these motels are charging is incredible, we never charge anymore for WINZ guests than for regular guests, but we do ask for a bond (for damage caused).
Dr Yvil - So you are a Master Tree Cutter. A Master at Timing The Market, even when its going down and making a Million. And you are a Master Martial Artist to Manage those WINZ people for emergency housing. But yet you are very sensitive to name calling ? Something does not line up here.
He dosen't like name calling, but is not above a bit of brutal beneficiary bashing.
It lines up perfectly, when you treat others with respect, they are happy to do business with you. Grow up 2022
What's the rush?
Nothing, if you're a masochist.
I think Brook is taking some Aboriginal history classes before he goes?
I think it's pretty cool that Australia has proper indigenous people.
I think you are correct.
A worryingly common anecdote that is likely to show up in the statistics over the next few months?
The Corelogic data is weird. If I'm not mistaken, for any given month, they report the average of the last three.
Averages are misleading enough as it is, but having a rolling 3 month average like that hides a lot of what's actually going on.
Thats why people refer to it as Poorlogic.
I guess if yourself and the other user 2022 both call it that, that's technically "people".
I would be very surprised if values in Wellington city have not dropped by more than the official figures suggest. At the beginning of the year most agents were telling you to disregard the (Sept. 2021) RVs, because they were too low. Now, most asking prices are 10-20% below RV.
Miguel, Miguel, Miguel, Graph, Graph, Graph
The corelogic dataset isn’t really worth looking at, let alone spending the time to graph it.
REINZ HPI is significantly less volatile and considerably more timely
Fair enough Miguel - makes sense
I'll look forward to your next update based on HPI
Death knell for new build sales. If and when the current backlog of developments that are in progress (as opposed to consented) wrap up, that is our housing supply for the next 5 years.
Yep good point.
so when interest rates drop in 2023/2024, and if immigration picks up again, then we will likely see prices rising from 2024.
But I expect the next upwards house price cycle will be much more moderate than the last one.
Yes, how long it takes to achieve even 2021 June CV's in Auckland.
People will be on high fixed rates for a while after and unless we're in recession, it's hard to see rates decreasing enough to bring back exuberance in the market..
"so when interest rates drop in 2023/2024"
I wonder if inflation will be near the midpoint of the 1 - 3% band by then
I expect easing of the OCR after that will be slow, no point spending all this time and pain taming inflation, just to let it take off again...
It is good to learn from history. History dosen't repeat, but it rhymes, etc.
Here is a historical article about the supply response in Ireland. Things don't always pan out as expected.
https://ww1.daft.ie/report/rossa-white?d_rd=1&d_rd=1&fr=touch
Not really a fall. Just the start of the retrenchment of the last ten years of speculation via ever cheaper debt. Still a long way from reality.
Take care not to burn your popcorn...
The HPI is the only show in town.
That's the problem with different data isn't it you can always choose a set to fit your narrative. Nothing wrong with the core logic data above unless they have suddenly changed how they measure it recently.
Rubbish.
HPI is simply the best data. It’s not about ‘fitting a narrative’.
However the HPI is arguably the most accurate measure, even Bindi Norwell called it the "Gold Standard of price analysis tools" in 2020.
Corelogic measures sales prices, it doesn't distinguish the type of house. Big difference between the average market purchase price; and the average purchase price of a 3 bedroom house vs 4 bedroom house.
Corelogic also lags the REINZ data and looks at 3-month data, so it is only just starting to pick up the big falls REINZ has reported for the last few months. With hindsight I'm sure the data series will be similar, but why would you look at a data series that's so behind reality when there's a better alternative?
In a limited sales environment, the better houses will sell easier.
The CoreLogic Index doesn't measure house prices per se. It measures the average value of all dwellings in a district, not just those that have recently sold. But those valuations on based on sales data for the previous three months.
The REINZ HPI is based on unconditional sales in a particular month, adjusted for differences in the mix.
I think you'll find the methodolgy is almost identical, Greg, its the inputs that differ. REINZ data is more up to date so its index is more reactive.
As much as I am REINZ HPI fan-guy #1 (self-proclaimed...), the Corelogic index is a proper index (rather than just mixing sales prices etc, without controlling for which types of properties sold). Its downsides are in the 3 month rolling window and being based on settlement information making it a few months behind the pulse compared to REINZ which is based on the prices agents report when it goes unconditional.
The underlying methodology is the same for both REINZ and CoreLogic and QV HPIs - and has been validated by the RBNZ. The difference is the currency of the sales data - REINZ is more up to date, corelogic is lagged because most of it comes via the councils on settlement. THis is why the Corelogic one is only now showing changes that REINZ had 2-3 months ago (*eg Christchurch falling)
On the same page
I agree, 1.4% drop, but a 12 month increase of 20 plus %, still a long way to go for the great reset, but feel it may drop back another 5% and that will be it. Inflationary prices are here to stay I suspect.
Mortgage interest rates are now back to around where they were in 2017, 2018. When houses cost half what they do now.
only a problem if you over extended yourself...just remember the stress test was on 7%.
7.95 per cent at the ANZ currently. That tells us where the ANZ thinks interest rates are going to.
6% stress test when the people believed interest rates would stay very low for a very long time. Oh the pain that is coming.
7% Interest Rates ,very soon.
Whats that got to do with the price of fish ? Based on that sort of logic house prices should still be what they were in 1990. Things really are not improving for the FHB, any reduction in house prices are quickly offset by rising rates and that's without even factoring in rising wages, new builds dropping and 18% house price materials cost. Like they say "The more things change, the more they stay the same".
If fish were bought on credit, then interest rates would have a big influence on the price of fish.
Not sure on price relevance but fair to say many houses in NZ are very wet and somewhat smelly, overpriced like some fish too I'll grant.
What is happening in Thames? House prices up 12.2% in 3 months. One of a few regional places bucking the trend. Are people leaving Auckland?
A lot of new builds all in the upper end of the market and the upper end of the market is strong pulling median up. Think Whitianga Waterways, Hahei, Cooks Beach. Demographic is older/retiree.
Yep its a no brainer. Working from home or retirement with commuting distance to Auckland for the odd trip. Said it months ago, Auckland and Wellington will get smashed the hardest.
Maybe Tems has been "discovered" when people realised that it is equi-distant Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga. Perfect for retirees to trade down and stay close to grandkids. Hospital and main shopping centre right there.
A lot of development going on. Professionals leaving Auckland to reside there. A number of Coromandel towns had fibre put in last year which has accelerated that. I know of some schools where the school roll has doubled. No ram raids. No gun violence. Good climate. Rates are low.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/08/new-zealand-house-prices-conti…
Is it just the beginning or are we at the end of the tunnel....
Any experts, who can predict when will this all end ?
In my opinion, we're nowhere near the end of the tunnel, then again, some will disagree we're in a tunnel at all...
Wow, we agree.
Yvil went from ultra bull to ultra bear late in 2021.
But for years before that was adamant that house prices couldn't fall. So like Tony Alexander, he's in the game of market commentary. Telling you what is happening as it happens and therefore can never be wrong. 'See I told you this was happening'....
The bulls were pushing hard to maximise their exit price...now those bulls are bears....they want to minimise their re-entry point,all praying for Luxon to come in and re-introduce mortgage interst deductions and open the flood gates on immigration...it's all about self interest.
Luxon has said this morning, surprise surprise, that he will open those floodgates, sigh.
oh well that’s certainly helped confirm my decision of not voting for him next year.
Who will you vote for then?
Rubbish IO, you will not find a single post where I said "house prices can never fall", that would a ridiculous statement, especially since house prices have fallen in NZ in the past
Yes I'm sure Tony Alexander will be saying the same later this year if prices really do come crashing down
"there's a 60% change that it is raining right now"
Thanks HM !
(PS: I wouldn't say ultra bear, I'm not expecting a 50% price fall like some)
Hutt Valley Market Update 1st Aug
This week we are starting to see the number of rental listings drop with the lowest number of listings since April – however there are also the lowest percentage of listings over $650 a week since May 2021.
Anecdotally hearing a number of house sales at the top end of the market ie $1.4M+ have fallen over when they buyer has failed to sell their own property for the price they wanted/ needed- this is resulting in the prices at that top end falling quite significantly.
Seeing again a lot of houses selling in that 650K- 750K range – which is prime investor FHB market.
Current Market Listings
537 houses on the market- Down 8 on last week . I predicted a couple of months ago that I thought listings would drop to the mid 500’s by end July and this seems to have delivered. As previously stated I do expect listings to come back with a roar in mid -late August as Spring selling season approaches, I think we will also see a number of houses that have been delisted returning to the market as sellers hope more people will go looking for a house.
We have now had 5 months of less than 100 houses been sold in the hutt valley – making the average number of houses sold each week 25. This is well down on last year where 40 houses were selling a week and at the peak in March 2021 50 houses a week were selling.
537 houses on the market with 25 a week selling means there is 21.5 weeks stock on the market. Down on the 26 weeks SOH recorded in April
House Price Reductions
284 houses have a listed price – this is down 15 on two weeks ago
69% of the houses listed with a price have reduced their price since listing
The average markdown is currently 98K.
Of those that have listed prices (pool 322) -65 have reduced their prices by 100K
15 have reduced their prices by over 200K, 9 have reduced their prices by 300K and 2 now has reduced their price by 400K with the biggest reduction been 425K (a total 25% reduction)
The data continues to show the majority of houses listed are under 900K. The Median house price for all 545 listings is now 799K. (Down 1K from a couple of weeks ago and the lowest Median in the last year)
Market Valuations
The latest QV valuations (valuations by QV which are updated every month and give an approximation of a houses value) have dropped $180K since Jan for the Hutt. This is interesting because new RV ratings are due to be calculated in Sept and released in Nov. A number of people who bought in the last 12 months are going to find their house is worth a lot less than what they paid for it.
As for homes – some massive drops in the last round of updates released last week.
- Woburn (the hutts most expensive suburb) – average house price dropped 90K in value in June alone and is down 240K from $1.65M (in Feb 22) to $1.41M
- Petone – dropped 50K in value in June and is down $180K from $1.19M to $1.01M and will drop below $1M this month. This is a 9% drop YOY.
- Wainuiomata (the huts cheapest suburb and attractive to investors and FHB’s) – dropped 35K in value in June and is down $140K from $870K in Feb to $725K. this is a 8% drop YOY
Houses sold vs houses removed
My records show 253 houses listed with a Price have sold YTD
I have records of a further 238 houses that have been removed from the market unsold YTD.
28 of those houses removed from the market have been listed on the rental market. This seems to be slowing – very few houses that were for sale were removed and listed for rent in July.
Length of time on the Market
- 422 houses have been on the market for over 30 days - 79% (last week it was 412)
- 293 houses have been on the market for over 60 days - 55% (last week it was 283)
- 197 houses have been on the market for over 90 days – 37% (last week was 199)
- 133 houses have been on the market for over 120 days - 25% (last week was 123)
- 79 of the houses have been on the market for over 150 days - 15%
- 53 of the houses have been on the market for over 180 days (6 months) – 10%
The number of houses on the market over 60 days is now over 55%. This has risen from 32% of houses in mid March (one in three), 1 in 3 houses have now been on the market more than 3 months , 1 in 4 have been on the market over 4 months and 1 in 10 have been on the market over 6 months.
Rental Market
This week the rental market has 193 properties for rent up 63 on this time last year, – when just 130 houses were for rent. However this is the lowest number of rentals on the market since the last week Apr
The lower number of rentals is not translating into higher rental prices as the percentage of properties listed at $650 is 36% - the lowest percentage of properties over $650 since the 17th May 2021 and well below the 53% of houses listed over $650 on the 23rd March.
Median Rental price for the Hutt valley is $600 a week
Average rental price reduction is $53 a week. There continues to be around 10-15 listings a week which are new builds and some attractive rental prices with one discounting its listing price from $750 to $650 to rent it, it’s a 3 bedroom 2 bathroom townhouse in Petone so some good rental prices for renters at the moment. Possibly the best rental market in the last 10 years – not so good for landlords
Your reports are excellent. I love them. Hugely informative.
KeithW
Yes, but a chart pack of all his/her data history would be much easier to absorb and much more powerful in seeing the trends.
Great report once again. Perhaps Ashley Church could read your posts. He might get a more accurate picture, rather than relying on the history books.
Maybe ikimpaul IS Ashley Church?
I would rather listen to ikimpaul on the radio, ikimpaul would have saved a lot of people a lot of money in the past 7 months if they had heard her market reports. Real time data is so important in a falling market.
Not Ashley Church and I'm a she not a he
You just totally blew all my preconceptions. I had you pegged as a 45 year old man in a tweed jacket.
Apologies, nearly went He/She but took a punt on He due to the Paul. I will know for next time.
Dr Yvil - I hope you are not name calling ?
Ashley doesn't know where the Hutt is.
Great in-depth reports. I hope you are time series'ing these results on a graph, as it might show some correlation between variables over time.
This comment would make a good guest article on interest.co.nz. Very helpful thanks.
Don't suppose you could include East Auckland in your reports as well? 😁
Nothing to see here,the Hosk says all is well in the property market this morning,disregard all the doom & gloom he says...funny how it is all doom and gloom from the Hosk on every measure in this country...except property...vested interest perhaps :-)
He really is the ultimate DGM isn't he?! I tuned in accidently on monday morning and seriously thought i had just lost 2 years - rinse & repeat ad nauseum. Didn't take Kerre long before the gloomtalk kicked in either.
Zen,I have noticed that Kerre used to be quite balanced,but she must have been called into the office for an 'attitude adjustment'...she is as negative and anti government as the Hosk is.
I actually do my best to avoid listening to ZB these days...but my wife insists leaving the radio on talkback to keep the dog company...I wonder if he is counted as a loyal listener.I also have a Jap import 2nd car,still has the original radio in it,so ZB it is sometimes...it seems a large proportion of ZB listeners were delivered to them on a plate over the years due to the Japanese used car import trade lol.
I find it strange how people have such an ego attachement to things like property prices. Its like it would dent ones ego if house prices might fall to affordable levels.
So their ego attachment to house prices, to them, is more important than the financial and social stability of the country as a whole - and the opportunity for younger generations to have a shot a home ownership and prosperity in their place of birth.
Its a completely bizarre mentally (at least to me).
Similar to the climate change denial mentality... It's so tiring to listen to.
And yet people still go to work, buy groceries, fill up the tank. Life goes on...
Perhaps with a slowdown rather than waiting 6 months to get a builder you only have to wait 4 weeks.
Also, take a trend line from 2016 to 2019 (when things were getting flat) and disregard 2020 to 2021 when things got way over inflated as a result of government policy and people not knowing what to do with their money other than dump it into housing, and things are getting right back on track.
I'm predicting HPI of around early to mid 3000's by end of September and things will level off from there. A few flat years which is actually the best thing as will weed out the wanna be developers who have made bucket loads of money doing next to nothing other than owning a 800m2 section for more than 10 years.
Some of childish BS on this site is getting tedious, nothing whatsoever to do with what this site is about! We all know who they are. Unfortunately likely another source of good information ruined by idiots.
property values are going down and buyer have more choices then last year but they are still waiting for the prices to go down more. More inventory in the market will make the situation more worse for home owners. Real estate agent predict prices may fall more this year.
'LeTs Build SoMe morE AffordabLe Housees'
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