The average value of New Zealand homes has declined by $24,491 over the last three months, with average values in much of Auckland declining by more than $100,000, according to property data company CoreLogic.
According to the CoreLogic House Price Index, the average value of New Zealand homes declined to $1,018,770 in June from $1,043,261 in March.
The biggest drops occurred in Auckland where the average fall in values over the three months from March to June ranged from $166,738 in the Gulf Islands (mainly Waiheke) to $13,666 in Papakura.
Apart from Waiheke, the biggest value declines in Auckland were in the upmarket central Auckland suburbs with most recording value drops of more than $100,000.
Average values were also well down in Wellington, where declines ranged from $16,150 on the Kapiti Coast to $84,526 in Wellington City’s western suburbs.
Over the same period average dwelling values have also declined in Hamilton by $10,937, Tauranga by $21,463, Gisborne by $3481, Napier by $34,562, Hastings down $24,564, Whanganui down $11,350, Palmerston North down $11,350, Porirua down $48,316, Upper Hutt down $64,513, Lower Hutt down $61,082, Dunedin down $16,771 and Invercargill $9218 lower.
CoreLogic NZ Head of Research Nick Goodall compared the current housing market to that which followed the Global Financial Crisis.
“As the downturn sets in and with interest rates set to rise further, greater consideration is now being given to how long and how far this will go,” Goodall said.
“Of course no one knows for sure, but the long recovery after the GFC offers one potential scenario which could unfold,” he said.
After the GFC housing prices declined by 9.9% over 17 months and then flattened out, and it took five years for them to return to pre-GFC levels, Goodall said.
“While the economic and lending environments are remarkably different between 2008 and 2022, housing affordability is more thinly stretched and interest rates are rising, not falling like in the late 2000s.
“Under these circumstances it is difficult to foresee any respite for falling house prices in the near term,” he said.
The comment stream on this story is now closed.
| CoreLogic House Price Index | |||
| June 2022 | |||
| Territorial authority | Average current value | 12 month change % | 3 month change % |
| Far North | $722,630 | 23.3% | 3.5% |
| Whangarei | $843,530 | 17.4% | 0.5% |
| Kaipara | $894,585 | 18.3% | 1.9% |
| Auckland - Rodney | $1,409,251 | 17.8% | -0.8% |
| Rodney - Hibiscus Coast | $1,321,148 | 14.6% | 0.1% |
| Rodney - North | $1,486,017 | 20.2% | -1.5% |
| Auckland - North Shore | $1,604,040 | 10.1% | -4.3% |
| North Shore - Coastal | $1,848,637 | 10.7% | -3.2% |
| North Shore - North Harbour | $1,535,209 | 12.1% | -4.6% |
| North Shore - Onewa | $1,287,159 | 6.8% | -5.7% |
| Auckland - Waitakere | $1,159,214 | 11.1% | -5.5% |
| Auckland - City | $1,656,359 | 10.9% | -6.2% |
| Auckland City - Central | $1,385,149 | 12.1% | -7.3% |
| Auckland City - Islands | $1,752,653 | 18.9% | -8.7% |
| Auckland City - South | $1,499,646 | 10.6% | -5.6% |
| Auckland_City - East | $2,077,622 | 9.1% | -5.8% |
| Auckland - Manukau | $1,305,271 | 14.7% | -4.7% |
| Manukau - Central | $1,019,663 | 13.2% | -4.0% |
| Manukau - East | $1,605,937 | 9.8% | -5.8% |
| Manukau - North West | $1,143,708 | 17.3% | -3.5% |
| Auckland - Papakura | $1,070,975 | 19.6% | -1.3% |
| Auckland - Franklin | $1,026,058 | 19.3% | -1.9% |
| Thames Coromandel | $1,206,169 | 14.0% | 4.0% |
| Hauraki | $686,493 | 14.2% | -1.3% |
| Waikato | $808,401 | 19.0% | 4.5% |
| Matamata Piako | $754,430 | 25.1% | 1.7% |
| Hamilton | $880,947 | 9.9% | -1.2% |
| Hamilton - Central & North West | $821,447 | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| Hamilton - North East | $1,089,195 | 11.2% | -2.2% |
| Hamilton - South East | $811,212 | 9.3% | -1.5% |
| Hamilton - South West | $783,311 | 9.9% | -0.8% |
| Waipa | $913,790 | 14.9% | 0.1% |
| Otorohanga | $515,858 | 3.1% | -12.7% |
| South Waikato | $475,164 | 28.3% | -0.6% |
| Waitomo | $391,289 | 15.8% | 1.3% |
| Taupo | $902,073 | 20.7% | 2.2% |
| Western BOP | $1,069,244 | 25.0% | 0.8% |
| Tauranga | $1,164,444 | 19.1% | -1.8% |
| Rotorua | $722,557 | 7.4% | -0.4% |
| Whakatane | $780,065 | 14.8% | -0.3% |
| Kawerau | $429,166 | 21.4% | 0.4% |
| Opotiki | $563,911 | 5.3% | 9.3% |
| Gisborne | $655,996 | 12.0% | -0.5% |
| Wairoa | $412,470 | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Hastings | $878,440 | 12.8% | -2.7% |
| Napier | $860,728 | 8.3% | -3.9% |
| Central Hawkes Bay | $657,435 | 25.6% | -0.7% |
| New Plymouth | $749,082 | 18.6% | 2.8% |
| Stratford | $522,316 | 20.5% | 7.4% |
| South Taranaki | $461,721 | 23.9% | 6.2% |
| Ruapehu | $405,935 | 9.4% | -0.8% |
| Whanganui | $561,515 | 12.0% | -2.0% |
| Rangitikei | $496,183 | 14.8% | 0.2% |
| Manawatu | $677,175 | 12.8% | 0.6% |
| Palmerston North | $731,017 | 3.7% | -2.3% |
| Tararua | $475,032 | 9.9% | 2.1% |
| Horowhenua | $648,702 | 8.5% | -2.1% |
| Kapiti Coast | $961,418 | 5.3% | -1.7% |
| Porirua | $962,139 | 5.2% | -4.8% |
| Upper Hutt | $867,214 | 1.2% | -6.9% |
| Hutt | $923,980 | 1.0% | -6.2% |
| Wellington City | $1,227,308 | 7.3% | -3.7% |
| Wellington - Central & South | $1,167,987 | 7.1% | -2.6% |
| Wellington - East | $1,364,456 | 8.8% | -3.1% |
| Wellington - North | $1,161,670 | 7.5% | -4.1% |
| Wellington - West | $1,386,248 | 6.7% | -5.8% |
| Masterton | $689,785 | 13.0% | 1.0% |
| Carterton | $731,095 | 8.0% | -0.1% |
| South Wairarapa | $905,143 | 11.3% | 0.4% |
| Tasman | $876,095 | 14.6% | 2.3% |
| Nelson | $861,694 | 11.3% | -0.5% |
| Marlborough | $744,735 | 10.9% | 0.7% |
| Kaikoura | $646,630 | 13.5% | 8.0% |
| Buller | $314,328 | 14.5% | 49.2% |
| Grey | $354,126 | 16.3% | 7.6% |
| Westland | $383,181 | 16.1% | 14.3% |
| Hurunui | $574,540 | 16.3% | -3.0% |
| Waimakariri | $730,898 | 28.9% | 5.8% |
| Christchurch | $783,216 | 24.1% | 3.3% |
| Christchurch - Banks Peninsula | $862,532 | 27.7% | 7.3% |
| Christchurch - Central & North | $899,159 | 23.3% | 3.6% |
| Christchurch - East | $606,752 | 24.1% | 5.1% |
| Christchurch - Hills | $1,085,911 | 25.5% | 4.1% |
| Christchurch - Southwest | $745,026 | 24.3% | 1.6% |
| Selwyn | $869,131 | 28.3% | 0.1% |
| Ashburton | $528,914 | 18.0% | 4.2% |
| Timaru | $510,073 | 15.0% | 1.3% |
| MacKenzie | $709,975 | 13.6% | 7.8% |
| Waimate | $415,523 | 18.6% | 2.6% |
| Waitaki | $495,649 | 15.0% | 0.4% |
| Central Otago | $779,706 | 16.9% | 0.5% |
| Queenstown Lakes | $1,685,126 | 23.5% | 0.1% |
| Dunedin | $682,108 | 4.1% | -2.4% |
| Dunedin - Central & North | $696,535 | 3.9% | -3.6% |
| Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal | $658,727 | 8.7% | -0.6% |
| Dunedin - South | $649,137 | 4.1% | -1.6% |
| Dunedin - Taieri | $707,327 | 2.9% | -2.2% |
| Clutha | $389,394 | 6.0% | -6.1% |
| Southland | $492,462 | 17.8% | 3.2% |
| Gore | $390,882 | 12.3% | 4.2% |
| Invercargill | $472,368 | 8.8% | -1.9% |
| Auckland Region | $1,445,624 | 12.6% | -4.9% |
| Wellington Region | $1,075,676 | 5.0% | -4.7% |
| Main Urban Areas | $1,141,366 | 11.0% | -3.7% |
| Total NZ | $1,018,770 | 12.4% | -2.3% |
- You can have articles like this delivered directly to your inbox via our free Property Newsletter. We send it out 3-5 times a week with all of our property-related news, including auction results, interest rate movements and market commentary and analysis. To start receiving them, register here (it's free) and when approved you can select any of our free email newsletters.
71 Comments
These numbers seem to be getting increasingly out of whack with the generally better quality REINZ HPI numbers. E.g. Christchurch city had fallen -4.9% in the three months of sales to May on REINZ (and -2.1% MoM). I know Corelogic is less timely (being based on settlement dates), even if this release is for June settlements, but I'm still surprised.
No matter how one measures the fall in house prices, it's very small compared with the 70+ percent increase in prices over the last 5 years.
Further, I don't see any mention of mortgagee sales. That's a blessing - and an indication that people aren't too stressed in the current environment.
With mounting evidence that interest rates are unlikely to rise too much further (and might well drop from mid-2023) the housing market's outlook is not too bleak at all.
Market corrections are healthy and go with the territory - as seasoned property owners/investors are well aware.
TTP
What evidence?, rate increases haven't started their effects and they will go higher and won't be coming down to ridiculously low levels again. People need to prepare for hard times, especially those who hold large debts on assets that are currently severely overpriced. Low unemployment is a good thing most of the time but not when you're trying to fight inflation. Monetary tighting by mechanism drives unemployment up to reduce risk of stagflation, however our boomer demographics will add low unemployment inflationary pressure.
Hi Juzz,
BNZ, Westpac follow ANZ with rate cut move
Susan Edmunds07:40, Jul 06 2022
Above is the a headline from today's DominionPost newspaper (Wellington). But you don't need to look far to find plenty more tangible evidence. (Interest rate cuts are not just speculation.)
Suggest you do your homework before shooting from the lip.
TTP
Yes, the evidence that people look at, or don't, is sometimes clouded by their vested interests.
Everything is relative to a point. So it doesn't matter so much what house prices rise by as long as your wages rise to keep the median multiple the same, and which evidence shows for a functional stable market is circs 3x median income.
What needs to be looked at is the amount of disposable income people have left over once they take out all those costs that we as a NZ society say we need to live a comfortable lifestyle.
Irrespective of housing costs, things like having to go private for hospital treatment because our public health system is failing is an extra cost, so too is Govt. cutting school bus routes, making it harder and more costly for kids to get to school. Extra food, heating costs etc, the list goes on.
Many NZ households don't have any disposable income for retirement savings and are going without health care etc. NZ society has been going backward for years, there is very little resilience left on average as the country further splits into those that are ok and those that are not.
No matter how one measures the fall in house prices, it's very small compared with the 70+ percent increase in prices over the last 5 years.
A 70% increase is only a 40% drop. But then you have all the economic carnage as consumption falls off a cliff. So that 40% can easily spiral downwards.
What's the point of these "whatever the falls we still got 70%+ increases before" posts? Seemingly a constant resort.
Is it bragging about having received a whole lot of free wealth transfers from central bank and government welfarism? Or a comfort blanket of some sort? Is it trying to talk up the market for financial reasons?
The value of the NZD against USD is down around 16% from nov 2021 add this to house price’s falls and rates and inflation rising we have a huge financial problem the housing crash is just starting each month loses will get bigger and could go on for years.
DTRH - the house price decline cannot go on for years at this rate. It's just too fast not to expect it to pull up. 2.5% compounded m on m would be a 34% drop in 12 months. That drop would be equivalent to house prices before a 50% rise to the peak.
House prices will level out by Q2 2023 is my guess for what that's worth! (assuming no government / RBNZ intervention)
Caughtinthemiddle it’s is hard to see how far it will go but normally it hits bottom when average wage couple can afford to buy so in Auckland a long way. Everyone knows housing is way overpriced compared to income, this will take a while to happen but you are correct losses will slow next year if we don’t go into a deep recession. If NZD keep tanking inflation will stay high causing even more pain on economy.
Great. The speculative debt parade has got so out of proportion in this country that property needs it's 87 Share Crash moment. Fingers crossed for more of the same over the next twelve months. Higher interest rate, greater price declines, negative immigration, record construction and consents, and new legislation bypassing the stupidity of the RMA.
Don't loose your job, or your tenant...
Smart Auckland landlords would be offering their good tenants rent reductions right now.
Wake up Landlords (especially HW2) the rental market has changed! 😬
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/renting/129128857/wake-up-land…
Inherently, there's nothing wrong with rent....... But, personally, I'd rather receive it than pay it.
It makes a lot of sense to get into a home as soon as you've saved enough money for a deposit.
TTP
Life gets much simpler when you do neither and invest in productive assets instead, that don't phone you up when the toilet breaks.
Says the guy who's been telling us for years that he's a renter...
TTP caught lying again, what a surprise.
That's bullshit, CourtJester. High time you took a primary school course in "reading for meaning".
I've never denied that I'm a tenant and pay rent.
But it's not my ideal. I'd rather be a landlord and receive rent.
Sadly, there are plenty of others in the same circumstances. Try finding a good abode with reasonable rent and a responsible landlord in the main centres.
TTP
This is just getting weird now. We all know that you are Tim Poordant from Property Brokers, and that you own a penthouse in Palmy.
Why even Try To Pretend to be someone else at this point?
TimeToPuke.
Has a good ring to it.
Hope you don't have too much debt tied up in Waiheke Island rental properties. Values down massive, could cause issues with re-financing with potential negative equity.
TimeToPanic.
Tim, its evident you forget what you've already posted one week to the next. The truth is easier to remember.
But you are a landlord, correct?
Lose not loose cheers
This is more realistic than the three months to March. That quarter had the end of the upswing which skewed the final picture. The average over the last three months better approximates what is happening on the ground today as each month had a large decline.
Even so I'll wait for the middle of the month and the REINZ HPI data.
Feb 2020 national median was 635k by Nov 21 it was 925k. A 45% increase during a global pandemic while the NZ economy was on life support.
The increases were fueled purely by historically low interest rates and relaxed access to credit.
There is no way that prices could reverse with the same speed just because credit access is being restricted and interest rates are doubled.
Of course sales prices won't reverse at the same speed, sales are sticky on the way down. People are more likely to accept an offer 30% higher than 30% lower. But that's not to say the true attainable price for a property has not reversed at the same speed, it's just impossible to measure what that is until a sale happens.
Let's say credit is restricted completely to Owner Occupiers only at a DTI of 2. No sales happen as vendors stand off. Have prices fallen?
Vendors who don't have to sell will stand off, sure. People still get divorced, die and have their estate wound up, lose their jobs, default on their mortgages and so forth. There are a certain amount of sales that will keep happening in any market conditions.
And those sales transmit price/value information to the market. If you don't need to sell then no one can force you. If you want to believe your homes.co.nz valuation you can. Just know that you may not be able to rely on it if SHTF.
What is different about this crash is the very high numbers of very negatively geared and interest-only landlords.
They won't have the luxury of sitting on the sidelines. They will be forced to sell, because either:
1) They can't afford the mortgage payments on their rental anymore, and/or
2) De bank forces them off interest-only and onto P&I terms. Banks will get very unfriendly towards IO loans as property prices fall.
Looks like some places will finally go negative YOY next quarter but the high gains are still offsetting that fall for now. End of year results will be interesting but half the country will still be in positive territory. Fully expecting OCR rises to stop by Christmas now and just level off regardless of inflation. Budget for 6% mortgage rates.
100% Agreed. Once we roll through a 12 month period of interest rates moving from the 2.2%'s of this world to north of 4.5% , we will see a snowballing effect.
Let's hope this rockstar economy holds up and people keep their jobs. Hard to afford $800-$1400/wk on a million dollar AKL sh*tbox with no job.
Feel sad for the young folk tricked into buying after years of FOMO. They will be the most hurt.
TimeToPuke
It’s a soft landing.
Be quick!!!!!!
I think so for now. Short of another major event in the World the RBNZ are trying to orchestrate a soft landing.
Agree, Carlos, and it looks like RBNZ is being highly successful.
TTP
Tim, are the RBNZ highly successful in ending Russia occupation of Ukraine too? Its global forces driving interest rates up one day, down the next - especially fixed.
I see that all of Tim's posts on the thread have immediately had 3 likes (again) this morning. So he must be logged in with his 3 profiles (again).
Maybe it’s his Palmy Property Gang
A convicted market manipulator caught manipulating? How unexpected!
Yes Tim also holds the ONZM title which based by its definition:
“who in any field of endeavour, have rendered meritorious service to the Crown and the nation or who have become distinguished by their eminence, talents, contributions, or other merits”.
But then also breaks the Commerce Act with dodgy trade practises....but if it was in the aim of pushing house prices ever higher (as the head of property brokers)...well then of course it is in the meritorious service to the Crown!
😝👍
Definitely not meritorious service to the awful Property Brokers radio advertisements here in Wairarapa. Pretty sure the singer of the jingle is Kermit the Frog. Maybe it's Tim that's singing it, I've never heard him speak but I imagine he has quite a throaty voice.
One will be from his bro and hypeman Guy Mordaunt aka the Property Spruiker
Alteregos and menthal subsystems are supposed to moderate and contrast each other by adoption different perspectives, so that you reach a balanced view. It's kind of an intermediate skill that eventually lead to the wisdom necessary to accept that you are always at least partially wrong.
Reinforcing delusions is not their point
Yes, don't lose your job.
There is very little selling at all on Waiheke......
A bail out of sorts is coming. Courtesy of Auckland rate payers and some of that lovely Auckland fuel tax money. Waiheke ferries will be incorporated into Auckland public transport network and eligible for fare subsidies. Will make it a more viable option for working class commuters.
12 Houses in June 2022 versus 18 in June 2021, Down 30% in Volume as is most of Auckland. A more typical winter market than of course the last 2 winters.
Good article from the other side of the Tasman
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-04/can-we-avoid-a-recession-what-we…
Australia should be looking at what happened to (edit) Ireland post 2008 - not NZ!.
Interesting moment for WJ late last week. Saw a place in a street that I've been wanting to get into for a while. Mid-market 3 bed but with 3 baths, double garage & not much land. Agent said they'd had it valued (?) at $1.175 & so they took it to auction. It didn't sell so listed at $1.05 immediately after. However, it only lasted a day & was sold at $930 as the vendor was hurting (he'd already bought something else, silly boy). By the time I'd got my offer in a day later (at $950) it was too late. That's life, but it gave me a little glimpse of what's happening out there. Next time I've got be a day quicker.
Waikato, Matamata, Thames and Waipa are the places to be
Cheers Corelogic
Nah, sorry to spoil yah party naive fella, they're just the last dominos😝
Confirmation Bias is an interesting thing isn’t it.
I am happy for you to prove me wrong our Resident Property EXspurt. We own properties in each of those districts apart from missing out on a multi bagger in Matamata Piako
RP I am also happy to remind you that I have never been wrong and you have never been right
HW2 is very happy now.
There is no bigger red flag than someone claiming to have never been wrong.
HW2 thinks he is right not to lodge his tenants bond payments.
How are your bond investments?
My term deposits are doing fine - steady growth. No bond investments. I do however miss the classic car collection!
Ah yes the Mighty Mongrel Mob Kingdom ...
For Waiheke Island perhaps the right focus would be to say that it still leads the City and all Auckland suburbs in price growth over the past 12 months. Hanging on to an 18% increase over this time last year, and historically the Average always drops there over the winter months, with the exception of the last 2 years of month by month rises for 21 months straight.
Yes thats why i am watching it, it is sort of Hamptons, of the AKL market. Some expats bought there while still in London to have a foot of the ladder (or is it a super slippery slide?)..... It offers very low rental returns, be interesting to see where it lands.
Devonport is also an expat bellweather
Devonport's average property value falling 9.7% ($247,000) since the start of the year.
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/devonport-takes-a-dive-as-property-value…
Devonport is tightly held, no investors as the yield was never there..... in fact its been a great place to rent .....
In February, there were only a couple of empty sections in the less than $1M on Waiheke (Trademe).
Now there's a couple of pages - I think mostly houses where the vendor didn't want to reveal their price, so they were all PBN. Now there's almost 2 pages of properties under $1M listed. But many of the older listings haven't changed asking price at all.
I'm seeing some of the rental listings from there that disappeared are now for sale also...
I never got Waiheke - had 2 friends who moved there and the ferry commute just about destroyed them. Mind you it's a cut above poor man's Waiheke aka Whangaparaoa
bus from Silverdale now real fast and super cheap....
You can’t add declines in Kiwi to declines in house prices, that is idiotic.
any increases in tradable inflation need to be seen for it to eventually affect housing. There is no evidence for what you’ve said
Many of you here are smarter than I am so hoping you can clarify something.
Do these price reports reflect the types of dwellings/property being sold or is it just a blunt measure of average (or median) prices. The reason I ask is that for the past 4+ years Auckland developers have been buying 800m2 sites well above CV as the numbers stacked up to either build another dwelling, or two, or three at the rear, or remove the existing dwelling and construct 8 townhouses as an example.
We know that the Auckland Council consent (both RC and BC) have been sky high for the past few years. The typical development timeframe from buying the site to selling the dwellings is around two years, unless selling off the plans of course.
Anyway what I am getting at is that for the past few years people have been buying sites at extremely inflated prices if you were just looking at the CV, rather than the development potential, which shows those inflated prices actually stack up as a business decision. However the majority of the sites that stacked up have now been developed, so less are being sold, and so these are not having as much as an impact on the average prices. In their place in terms of what is being sold are hundreds of small, attached townhouses that are selling for obviously a lot less than an 800m2 site with development potential.
Could this potentially be some of the reason we are seeing prices wind back. Would be good to see the data on the number of houses being sold in certain price brackets (e.g. was it 100 homes at $750K, then 10 homes at $2m, or was it 110 homes at $1.2m or whatever the numbers may be).
If the types of homes being sold are those that would always sell for less (townhouses), wouldnt that look the same as a deflating housing market?
Not trying to prop up the market here or anything, TTP has that under control, just trying to understand it.
This is the CoreLogic HPI, its hedonically adjusted so it accounts for differing types of properties being sold over time.
We are all doomed
Economics - the west is deglobalising
inflation will remain elevated
interest rates too
Other - new research that ponders why atmospheric methane is rising even when economic activity is restrained (covid) has an answer. The smoke from forest fires is inhibiting the elimination of methane via its chemical process Forest fires are increasing due to heat and this process will beget more heating.
Of the 966 suburbs that had 20 or more settled sales in the 12 months, 615 (63%) suffered value declines over the quarter, up from 488 in the three months to the end of May. The biggest drop was in Brown Owl, in Upper Hutt. The suburb's average property value fell 13.6% ($140,000) to $886,000 over the quarter and dropped 6.6% over the last 12 months.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.