Auckland's largest real estate agency Barfoot & Thompson had a reasonably strong finish to the summer selling season.
The agency sold 1180 residential properties in March, which was down by 36% compared to March last year.
However the sales levels in March last year were exceptionally high and leaving those aside, March sales this year were the highest they have been for the month of March since 2016.
Average and median selling prices remained below last year's peaks but have not shown a dramatic slide.
Barfoot's average selling prices in March was $1,234,572, up $38,000 from $1,196,036 in February, but down just over $44,000 from the peak of $1,278,647 set in December 2021.
The median March selling price was $1,180,000, up from $1,122,500 in February, but down $60,000 from the peak of $1,240,000 set in November last year.
Overall, prices appear to be flattening after coming down from the highs achieved at the beginning of summer. Barfoot's latest figures also suggest buyers will be finding more homes on the market to choose from.
The agency had 1994 new listing in March, which apart from last year was the highest number of new listings it has received in the month of March since 2015.
At the end of March Barfoots had a total 4816 residential properties available for sale, the highest number in any month since March 2019.
Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said predictions of price falls were a little premature, but was cautious on where prices might be headed.
"While the sales prices in March are the third highest on record, too much should not be read into one month's trading and the dominant sentiment around where prices are heading remains uncertain," he said.
"Overall, the rate at which prices are increasing is declining."
"Buyers are being more cautious than at the end of 2021 and vendors are trimming back price expectations that were based on the prices that were being achieved at year end.
"The most significant shift in March was the growth in the number of listings at month's end."
"With 1994 new listings in March, the month end listings reached 4816, the highest number we have had on our books in nearly three years," Thompson said.
"This level of listings will ensure that buyers will not only have a good amount of choice, but it will also give them additional time to make measured decisions."
"It also means vendors who are prepared to be flexible as to the price they will accept will create the opportunity to reach an agreement on price," said Thompson.
The comment stream on this story is now closed.
Barfoot Auckland
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60 Comments
Dead cat bounce.
How many times did I hear that phrase throughout 2020. Seems that dead cat could actually be gamed by the Harlem Globetrotters.
Sometimes I think people just like saying "dead cat bounce".
I like saying "Bull trap".
A bit like the corporate jargon that gets thrown about.
"Let's have a deep dive so we can drill down into the numbers around our business core competencies, we need to take a holistic approach to dealing with the pain points and unpack the issues at hand so we can embrace our team to move the needle and knock it out of the park. "
What's even worse is when people bring that garbage-speak home from work.
It's simply corporate cat picture motivation posters.
I'm in a role where I get served up a lot of that, what has become clear is that with the move to this lazy lingo some base ground is being ignored. The bottom line in a true sense is that beautiful leveller but finding management who can see that is not as easy as it once was.
Today's headline isn't in the script that the DGM has written.
Being objective and professional, of course, the DGM will now revise their errant script - and fairly acknowledge that the housing market is nowhere near as weak as they have been making out.
RESILIENCE is the name of the game. But, as ever, the DGM run for the sidelines......
TTP
TTP Tim Mordaunt. You do realise that when you get 5 upticks people know thats just your 4 fake accounts and Yvil. So basically 1 uptick.
The DGM are a fraught bunch of losers. They resort to anything when under pressure.......
See the comment of 2022 (above). Many other examples of their trickery and deception may be found here.
TTP
Speaking of trickery and deception may be found here........
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/91418098/property-brokers-manawatu-and…
Tim, its a good job you are self employed, because you would get fired for the amount of time you waste on here trying to justify further inflation of the housing bubble. Your comments on here don't set monetary policy or any of the other key drivers. Some have quite a differing opinion to your. Agree to disagree.
Said Ashley Church's lead chorister TTP
Actually this is exactly the script for the bubble bursting.
It’s always a slow bleed downwards when a property market bubble bursts... -1 to -2% a month… so it’s unlikely ours will be any different… but it’s still far too early to tell… all eyes are on the RBNZ and where rates stop
I suspect it will be a slow enough decline for the Tony Alexanders/Agents/Spruikers/MSM to some months claim stabilisation and a resilience in prices
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4080271-housing-bubbles-are-bigger-2006
The only difference between comparative bubbles bursting is that some declines lasted longer than others… some went on a slow decline for 4 years (Ireland), while parts of the Eurozone took a decade.
So we need to watch for the trend to know the bottom or the turning point
Personally, I think the best gauge on whether the market has turned bullish again, will be when someone buys a 2 bed apartment for 800k in Palmy… so please keep us all posted...
"The only difference between comparative bubbles bursting is that some declines lasted longer than others… some went on a slow decline for 4 years (Ireland), while parts of the Eurozone took a decade."
Sorry, DDDDebt, but these countries bear no resemblance to New Zealand.
TTP
You are right TTP - your 2 bed place in Palmy bears no resemblance to what NZ$800k can buy you in Greece
https://www.aplaceinthesun.com/property/details/ap2890677/4-bed-propert…
How bout a 'sprint'
Or how about 'ideation'
I find that people who usually use that language have no professional depth, and it’s a ploy to cover that up (unconsciously or consciously)
Will we need to circle back on that and socialise our thinking?
I reject the premise of that question.
"What part of the question do you reject?"
"The whole question, mr speaker"
Bhahaha
Classic senior manager and executive speak. Talk for 10 minutes without actually saying anything. Fluff. In Samuel L. Jackson voice: "Speak English mf"
We didn't have record levels of inventory with doubling interest rates in 2020.
March is generally the best month of the year for the market. Its now done. I look forward to the inevitable slide for the rest of the year.
Amazing how use of that phrase was defended back then too. Turns out they weren't even wrong. Although I really want to believe it (that a correction is underway, because I cannot figure out how current prices can be maintained) - that ain't what the figures appear to be showing, rather just a slowing in the rate of increase.
Soft landing if you have a decent quality build home in a good area. Prices increases declining but still in positive territory down here for the last quarter. Pretty much as predicted so far. Remains to be seen how many more rate hikes we get from the RBNZ this year.
Hi TTP
Hi, not TTP but like I said happy to meet anyone from here at cafe 414 in Tauranga. In your case, make sure your wearing a cone on your head with the letter "D" on it for easy ID.
Hi Carlos67,
See you at cafe 414 at 3.00pm this Saturday. (I happen be in Tauranga for the weekend and am keen to meet up!)
Sorry, but I don't have a cone with the letter "D" on it.....
You'll have to loan me yours.
Thanks!
TTP
Meeting yourself for the first time. Are you starting to get real ?
Hi Tim (The Property broker) ... erm soz fella, change of plan - the Missus wants me to take her to Coro.
Maybe next time - not
C67
Thats okay Tim, I know what you look like I printed out a picture. Its got a few holes in it now because its been hanging on my dartboard.
NZ Media? This is a positive headline creating yet positive spin on the housing market... You could be equally as negative on this data if you chose to go there. Why can't we just get the facts without the hidden agenda spin.
There are no "Facts" that are still not open to interpretation.
More houses with same demand surely equals price drops….,
I am still in the camp of where will we be by say 30 Sept
7% interest rates. -30% crash in home prices.
Ctrl "c", Ctrl "v"
Your going to have a busy year following 2022 😅
Yes. He runs around after me everywhere. He is very worried people may start to believe 7% interest rates are coming this year, ( Guaranteed ).
Not worried at all, just bored of your repetition
RESILIENCE is the name of the game
Cmd-C and Cmd-V is the way.
I will reserve judgement until I see REINZ’s HPI.
I imagine average and median prices are looking higher because proportionately there will be more sales at the mid- upper end of the market.
You can probably also add residual sales from February where they were under contract & then came through.
Figures also holding up just because well presented homes are selling, slightly weird, postage stamp yard, do ups are not.
The market still has overflow from people that got lucky and sold last year. In another month we will start really seeing where things are at.
Keep holding your breath please.
Auction clearing rates are circa 20% B&T data.
The market in apartments, units and cheaper areas such as Papakura have stalled - the data over the last 4-6 weeks from the auctions show this.
This sales information is therefor skewed to more expensive properties / areas as a result and the headline is cherry picking numbers to suit the narrative of the REA's.
Exactly!!!
as per my comment directly above!
Question: To me it seem the market is starting to transition from investors to home owners. Am i right to think this may be a large gap between the two. Will it be too far and the industry will need to be propped up to return to a capital gain/investment market? or and i seeing this all wrong? By the way, im not in the industry or an investor.....just trying to see if the market will become more affordable?
A dead cat bounce in a falling market is very common. The trend is your friend until the end when it bends (and it has), the housing market follows the interest rates with a little delay. This is the time the people recognising this and wanting to make money of the back of this craziness sell to those fearing they would miss out on a ‘good’ buying opportunity. They however find themselves catching a falling knife.
I'm calling "mixed metaphor", dead cat transforms into falling knife!
Catching a falling cat will probably result in some scratches too.
A well chosen metaphor can cut through the waffle like a dead cat through butter.
Brilliant use of language right there
This is nothing to do with a dead cat bounce, and everything to do with sales composition.
New Zealand total mortgage debt 327 Bln. 80% of that is fixed for less than 2 years. So lets be generous and say that only 130 Bln will be rolling onto new fixed rates this year. Average of 2% higher than the previous fix.
That is 2.6 Bln in additional interest payments per year. 7 Mln per day of discretionary spending being sucked out of the NZ economy.
teamof5million. scoring own goals and letting aussie banks pillage our country. meanwhile we export milk and logs to china and call our economy strong.
Exactly, which is why our non-tradable inflation is going to tank
That's only one side of the ledger though. How much on TDs, and how much higher are those rates?
Good point. Total TD's 156 bln. Approx 40 bln down year on year. Assume interest rate 1.5% better year on year. Then additional 2.3 Bln of interest income to TD holders. But mortgage holders and TD holders are rarely the same people. TD holders tend to be older and more frugal. Thats how they got a TD in the first place. Mortgage holders are younger and more likely to be spending their excess. Part of the demographic and inequality issues that NZ faces.
It's an interesting question. Many mortgage holders will just be paying down less debt as rates increase, whereas TD holding retirees might spend it. Tax also complicates things.
The last hurrah.
why are there so many listings? investors looking to get out before interest deductibility really bites? or before interest rates are closer to 10% than 2%?
like another commentator on here, i have been observing ( although no posting here) on surrounding neighbourhood. In my area ( Northcote, Northcote Pt, Birkenhead), listings have gone from about 70 on hand, to about 145 as of the last time I looked. A lot of them have passed at auction and now have a listed or asking price.. not a good sign.
with every other 1/4 acre section now being bought by developers to slice up into 4 or 6 townhouses, you have to wonder how much longer prices can stay up. the kiwi dream of having a deck and a backyard with some trees has been eroded in auckland - unless one wants to pay 1-2mil and be indebted to a huge financial debt for 20+ years. hate to think of young fhb who bought in Nov with sub 3% rates, going to be in for a shock when their shack is costing them an arm and leg next xmas. forget having kids, wont be able to afford it.
Go a few suburbs east and even ~$2m may not get you much of a backyard. It's just total madness.
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