Barfoot & Thompson's average selling prices, new listings, stock levels and sales numbers were all up strongly in November as the Auckland housing market returns to normal trading conditions.
The number of new listings received by the real estate agency surged to 2724 in November, up 16.7% compared to November last year. This was the highest number of new listings received by the agency in one month since interest.co.nz began keeping records of the figures in 2001 (see the interactive chart below).
That suggests Aucklanders who have been thinking about selling their properties but have been waiting on the sidelines to see how well the market copes with Covid restrictions have now jumped into the market in force.
That pushed up the total stock of properties Barfoot had available for sale at the end of November to 3933, almost matching the 4043 it had available at the end of November last year.
That is good news for potential buyers, who have been faced with a shortage of available listings to choose from since the beginning of this year.
Average and median selling prices both continued to show sharp increases in November.
Barfoot's average selling price was $1,250,886 in November, which means it has increased by $118,334 since September.
The median selling price was $1,240,000 in November, up by $140,000 since September.
Sales numbers in November were also up at 1182 from 814 in October, but were down by 24% compared to November last year.
However, although November's sales numbers did not much those of the same month last year, they were still the second highest they have been in the month of November in at least 10 years.
Overall, the numbers suggest the Auckland housing market has shaken off any concerns about lockdowns and should be heading into a busy summer.
However Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson sounded a warning about possible price expectations.
He said the strong growth evident in median and average prices was probably a result of the market being busier at the top end, rather than an overall increase in prices.
"Rather than seeing this as the start of a new cycle of higher increases, it is more likely to be a consequence of the abnormally high number of homes we sold in the higher price categories, "Thompson said.
"Of the 1182 homes we sold, 960 (81% of sales) were for more than $1 million, 216 were for more than $2 million."
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50 Comments
If RBNZ research paper that said that interest rate changes take typically 2-3 months for full effect to take place, its going tobe feb-march to see how elastic demand is considering the increased costs.. By that time Fed will taper, Dow & Evergrande will implode...
New lending restrictions likely to have already constrained buyer behaviour prior to Feb Mar. But maybe more listings by then could be challenging for people.
The chilli is hot today
"Barfoot's average selling price was $1,250,886 in November, which means it has increased by $118,334 since September."
$107000 in two months and that was after 35% to ...% increase.
Still No response from RBNZ to contain the ponzi and Jacinda is silent as has the perfect cover of Covid19. Wonder what is that will convince Mr Orr to impliment DTI asap to protect FHB from over streching under FOMO.
I say old chap, house prices remain ferocious. 😤
Better buy now…… before I miss out! 🥺
TTP
But if you just wait alittle TTP you can probably buy two homes for the same amount as what one house today will cost
Have to wait, its not a matter of not wanting to buy, majority can't afford it. So that's just that, whether you want to or not. Friends have stopped looking and just added onto their house, and demoing the garage.
Prefer to rent and work on my business and grow that, get it global, more fun then housing and can do it from anywhere in the world. Housing just rips off NZers, least online business's gets it cash from overseas.
Well J.P. Morgan & Chase sent out a note today saying that Omicron might hasten the end of the pandemic because it spreads so rapidly and symptoms are so mild. Let's hope Prime Minister Ardern can keep that out or the "crisis" might abruptly end at an inconvenient moment.
Yes, same occurred to me last week when I heard about the latest mutant.
Omicron could turn out to be a drug company's worst nightmare.
Fortunes are so randomly determined these days - just when we got used to governments picking the winners.
Squishy,
Well, I'll listen to the health experts rather than J P Morgan, but if that proves to be the case and National can really get its 'act' together, then i can see labour being thrown out and they would only have themselves to blame.
I supported them, but have become disillusioned by a general lack of competence, an ever increasing lack of transparency and a strong desire to centralise everything.
Sounds great to me, get Omicron and then you don't need to get the vaxx as your then in the "Recovered" category. Of course if this turns out to not be the case then there is something really suspicious going on. If they try and mandate the vax in NZ, all hell is going to break loose.
Grant Robertson has been quiet about the changes he made earlier in the year that were supposed to have helped and tilt the housing market back in favour of FHBs. Instead it seems to have only gotten worse.
The only thing more terrifying than lying Jacinda being PM is her stepping down and this guy having a turn.
Nah Robbos recently been saying there's more FHBs buying than ever before...reckons they're doing a great job.
Good analysis of Fed...also good advise to not sell good stock in loss from a youtuber and feel the same.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21UFLAeC6Po
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/12/the-full-list-of-how-ma…
........and to expect our MP to control the ponzi......
For all that real estate data is relatively easy to come by, it is still insuffcient in the sense that the data should be broken down into narrower categories. Categories such as 2 bdrm brick and tile home units would be useful to older and/or single potential buyers. Maybe even 3 bdrm versus 4 bdrm houses. Many more sub-groups could be statistically isolated and compared. Currently, we're only getting an overall trend which is good in itself, but we can't say that it constitutes a full professional analysis useful to indivdual buyers and/or sellers.
Well the new RV's are due out this month in Tauranga. I have no idea how they are going to finally come up with the right numbers because its all based on calculations done back in June-July which are of course now WAY out of date due to way the market has played out. Waiting 6 months was never a real problem in the past, but this time its out of date before its even released.
I wonder if that is an 'unspoken' reason why they have been delayed in Auckland.
I don't think so as the CV's will be dated as of June 2021, it's just the usual lazy delays and procrastinating
Yes they are late, pretty sure they always came out in October-November in Auckland. They must really be in a dither as to what they are going to commit to paper.
It's perfectly fine for what's its designed for, a nominal value to use to apportion the rates bill across the district. Using it for anything else is just daft.
Quite right.
The RV doesn't really matter, the Council Spending Allocated per Property does.
RV's could be replaced by a Categorised Schedule of Rates Collection, based on property age, land size, and location - called Categories A-Z and the amount paid per property would be the same. (London uses something along those lines)
"Reckless" spending allocated...
Buyers use it all the time as a reference. Sure its typically always on the low side but plenty of buyers use it as they did in the place I ended up buying. People were expecting it to be in the $700's. You don't want a really low RV as a seller, it just makes it harder.
Buyers, and vendors, reference it because they are told to - by the Real Estate Industry.
As a buyer, if it's 'low' - "That's good! You're going to pay lower annual rates" and if it's 'high' "That's good! You're getting it below market value"
If there was no RV and Council Rates were just charged as Category C, Band 2 - $1,750 per annum, it wouldn't be able to be used as a market tool as it is here. Market value would have to be determines by, say, a member of The Institute of Chartered Surveyors.
Pretty sure given access to the right information the RV's could be based on sale prices. Houses turn over so fast in NZ that it would give a pretty accurate picture. The Market Value is best not set by a surveyor but rather by what someone actually bought it for. I notice the likes of Holmes.co.nz is very crafty in that they immediately "Re-Value" the house based on what it last sold for. My place suddenly took a huge jump on Holmes and why wouldn't it.
Indeed. This is how it is in the UK. Just a banding.
Where goes Evergrande, there follows Barfoot?
...sales were only 5 billion yuan in November, sharply lower than the average monthly sales of more than 60 billion yuan in 2020.
https://www.yuantalks.com/chinas-major-property-developers-saw-sales-de…
bw ......this will never affect us here in little ol' nuzullin ........we have one of the best economies in the world .....look it's so hot, they're raising interest rates (don't worry about the falling NZD) .......awklund is full of new developments ready to "meet the hot market" why, just look at all the townhouse developments sprouting up .......this will only hold up the prices of the coastal, leafy suburbs up "to the moon" ! .......we have over 1 million "cash up" kiwis overseas who just can't wait to get home .......we are the safest place to be in times of covid - the supermarket of fresh food to the world ! ..........we only have 4-5% inflation , that's just peanuts ! .......why would you think a little Chinese property development company would have any influence on our robust, foolproof, "doubles every 7 - 10 years" property market ?! .....don't let a wee story from a faraway land ruin your day bw .......get out their and mortgage yourself to the hilt ..... don't be a renter, be in the the "rentier" class .......it is your civic duty to ensure the banks are making enough profits for their shareholders ......my local RE agent wants to upgrade his Merc to a Maserati, why would you want to stop him ! ........now please do not concern yourself with such mere trivialities and don't worry about such things.....keep drinking the "cool-aid" and remember those famous kiwi words "She'll be right mate" .....happy daze !
.... OK ....
Haha classic sarc.
The govt and reserve bank have stepped in with masses of welfare wealth transfers whenever there's looked a danger of a slowdown or decline. I don't expect that to change. Market manipulation to keep things up will likely occur again.
Just another ponzi 200m unoccupied properties in china
All the rage these days
"He said the strong growth evident in median and average prices was probably a result of the market being busier at the top end, rather than an overall increase in prices."
He's speculating right but he probably left out the other crucial probability- that quite a few houses that were previously under the $2M bracket are now selling in the $2M bracket and therefore a skew.
Log-normal are perhaps what they are, normal.
Be quick.
I just laugh at these now.
So far detached from fundamentals everything has become.
TESLA at $1100 ...
There is going to be so much hurt when this gets sorted out.
None of us will be laughing then
Highest surge of new listings ever. 2 or 3 more months of that, higher interest rates kicking in and things start to get interesting.
The hungry vulture smells rotten flesh in the distance..
Kaaarrrkkkk!!!
Part of me realises that a bubble popping is obviously going to be distructive. Job losses, big drama etc. Not fun.
Part of me.. The cynical part. Wants to see carnage. A little blood. A reset.
New Zealanders get all high and giddy ploclaiming how special we are. But we've screwed the pooch big time on housing. And we are chasing medeocracy on areas like climate change.
Feels like what our society needs right now is a good kick between the legs.
It already started. We are on a combined income of 160k, 1 kid with 250k deposit.
Was pre-approved for 770 in August. Yesterday I got a call from the bank and said the pre approved amount has gone down to 585k. Go figure.
Consider your credit tightened. And you won't be the only one.
Where will the Ponzi get fresh meat - investors coming back in at lower prices to stash cash, leave the places empty and wait for better times?
If your experience is representative.... prices are going to take a big hit. Just might take a few months to filter through.
If inflation keep burning, and it will, then rates can only rise putting massive pressure on rollovers as a large percentage of loans come off short term fixes in that same 12 month period. Banks yanking credit at the same time iequals three way leverage. Negative leverage...
Kaaaarrrkkkkk time indeed.
And inflation will drive the cost of new builds up. I was just quoted $40k for a new bathroom, just to update the floor, bath, bog, vanity etc. No structural work.
Are we ready to give Mr Orr a grade out of 10 yet?
On the North Shore it's not houses that are selling for the big bucks but sections. If you have an old house on a section size of 850 sq m - 950 sq m (or more) you can expect to get around $3.5 million to $4 million from a developer- that's what has been happening over the last few months, and that would push up the average sale price a lot! But it may be slowing down now.
Subdividable sections should be worth more than ones that are not. It used to be this way prior to tax rinsing becoming the primary investor goal and effecting all values.
The banks new more restrictive loan calculators are going to slow things down. (that is until they realise they aren't lending to anyone so loosen them up next year)
Well, the market is starting to slow down around here in Whanganui & Marton. Property listings have gone up by nearly 50% so there are more properties to choose from. Prices have certainly gone crazy but I would expect prices may now level off with better supply. If you are looking to buy a house in Wanganui I would highly recommend Whanganui Mansions www.whanganuimansions.co.nz which is a free online real estate magazine and real estate search facility featuring houses for sale in Wanganui, Waverley, Marton & Bulls, New Zealand. You can find all the local real estate agents & private listings in all price ranges. And if you are a real estate agent or a private seller, your listings are all free.
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