The housing market appears to be cooling over winter, with prices flattening out and the number of sales declining slightly compared to May.
According to the Real Estate Institute of NZ figures, the national median price was $820,000 in June, barely changed from $817,500 in May and down very slightly form the record high of $825,000 set in March.
This suggests the surge in prices that was evident late last year and earlier this year has come to an end.
In Auckland, the country's biggest market by far, the median price hit a new record of $1,150,000, but that was up by just $2000 compared to May's median of $1,148,000.
In the Wellington region, June's median price of $885,000 was also unchanged compared to May and slightly below the February peak of $895,000 and in Canterbury the median price declined from its May peak of $580,000 to $569,000 in June.
The interactive chart below shows the median price trends for all regions.
Sales volumes were more of a mixed bag, with the housing market showing something of a split personality in June, with residential property sales much stronger in Auckland than they were in the rest of the country.
There were 7345 residential properties sold throughout the country in June, down from 7720 in May but up 6.2% compared to June last year and the highest number of properties sold in the month of June for five years.
However, the surge in sales was largely driven by activity in Auckland, where 2766 properties were sold in June, down from 2834 in May but up 29% compared to June last year and the highest number of sales recorded in the Auckland region in the month of June for 15 years.
But in the rest of the country, excluding Auckland, 4579 residential properties were sold in June, down 4% compared to June last year and the lowest number of sales for the month in June in two years.
In the Wellington region the number of sales declined for the third consecutive month to just 694 in June, down 8% compared to June last year, and in Canetrbury the number of sales also declined for the third month in a row to 1026 in June, which was up 8% compared to June last year.
The second interactive chart below shows the sales volume trends in all regions.
The comment stream on this story is now closed.
Median price - REINZ
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Volumes sold - REINZ
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113 Comments
It's all about context. Record high prices are still going up, in the middle of winter.
Bring on summer.
I've just made 260k on a new build bought in Oct 2020 while it was being built. Now sold. Proof is in the pudding.
Prices where I'm are going up 50k a month. A new subdivision with all new houses, highly attractive to most people. I can't see the train stopping.
Everyone who can invest are milking it. They may say it's not great for first home buyers but they turn around and snap up the properties. Sad truth but that's the reality.
I guess if the train isn't stopping, the relevant question is, is it taking us to a desirable destination (collectively)?
No. However human behaviour means individual gains over greater good.
Guess we'll see how that plays out....history shows that humans that group together and work together towards a common good prosper while those who become selfish and fight each other for resources die from the inside out (which is where i think western society is currently).
'think not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country' - that is collective good, not individual gain.
Well said sir. Like it.
The cry of 'Lets raise taxes' carries the unspoken 'for everyone else'. Kiwis, rich or poor, are not as magnanimous as we like to think
Don't know too many humans who behave like that. Know a few animals who do, though.
You don't know many humans then.
That would be one interpretation.
I guess its more a question of the human you know best (and its state of consciousness).
Yes if you use the lower level part of the brain (the animal part) the focus is on self and survival. When you use the high parts of the brain, you see interdependence and collective effort for greatest benefit and health/happiness of the individual AND society.
Or is it going to crash. To many people seek to be hooked on cheap credit, and there doesn't seem to be much Fear in getting a massive mortgage these days
Prices can't keep going up unless wage inflation takes off (or interest rates get dropped further).. I'd prefer to be on a train thats barely rolling when it runs into the buffers at the end of the track, rather than one that hits the buffers doing 100mph...
Unfortunately communist idiolgy doesn't work.
Neither does your spellcheck apparently - 'ideology'. Are you sure you even know what 'communist idology' is? I'm having my doubts about it...
Clap clap jog on keyboard boy
No doubt new builds are all the buzz right now but still make up a fraction of the overall housing market.
Investor borrowing has dropped since its March 2021 peak and FHBs can only borrow so much to keep pumping the median higher.
Wait until the new CV comes out! More equity! Bigger loans!
this article says house prices are cooling but an article on Stuff.co.nz says house prices are booming and have gone up by 30%.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/125729804/house-pr…
Depends on the person publishing whether they are in or out of the game. Lol.
Stuff is looking at year on year price gain, different perspective...
Stuff are sniffing around for more Govt largesse. #DefundStuff
Stats Cherry picked to suit the narrative?
Can the median buyer pay any more? Can they pay 1.3 million if the prices push up again?
When is the price considered ridiculous ? 1.4 ? 1.5 ?
Yes. If they are existing owner occupiers, then the price can keep going up, and they'll keep trading in the same market.
The price could hit 3 million, hell 10 million, they'll just sell their house for 10 million and buy another place for 10 million.
Yes but trend in buying is down. fewer owners over time as a % of pop. And they are getting older, so move less often.
hence, each block of 6 year sales shows a lurch downwards in sales.
Secular trend
Demographics. All this QE and manipulation trying to avoid what is unavoidable. Of course we are trying to avoid it via mass immigration - but boy at what price!
"Extending Dychtwald's idea, investor Harry Dent further predicted that the economy would enter a sustained period of decline as the baby boomers passed their peak spending years"
If the median went to 1.5 then the banks security would be a sham.
At that point I would withdraw all funds from the bank.
Why is it a sham at 1.5 and not a sham now?
Well at 1.1 its getting close to the limits of the fundamentals.
Investors are destroying the social fabric of what was once a nice country to live in. Sad truth but that's the reality.
I've been saying this for 5 years but you get 'cancelled' as a 'DGM' by those making $$ from the situation (at the expense of others).
Why blame investors, blame people who have created environment to turn housing stock into casino chip and in given situation is Jacinda Arden government and RBNZ run by Orr.
Lucky you. And you made huge amount of money and paid no tax on it but still used all the facilities tax payers provide in the country and most of then can't afford a house. And you feel proud about it. Great job mate. Team of 5 million.
We are not a team of 5 million, that's one person's statement to manipulate you into thinking her communist idiolgy will work. The sooner you face the facts not everything in life is fair and even. Not everyone will own a house. We can't all earn the same wage and not everyone likes to be controlled by the government every 2 seconds
I guess you can justify any kind of action with that attitude. Must be nice to be able to intellectually simplify all problems to the premise of 'life's not fair' and then you would have to do nothing about anything.
Round 2
IDEOLOGY mate. You have the farcebook anti communist (goddamn lefties) group spelling in your post.(God save President Trump)
Good on ya, go back to ya mums basement ya sunflower.
Sunflowers are amazing plants. I love them :)
This is true. We are not a team of five million and it is braindead PR drivel from the princess. Life isn't fair and life isn't equal.
But it is in the interest of having a functioning country that the link between putting in effort and having a decent life is restored.
A nation so retarded that it rewards rent seeking parasites and hopeless bludgers instead of industrious productive taxpayers is going to find itself with only rent seeking parasites and hopeless bludgers remaining after a while. Already halfway there.
Agree many of my friends have jumped - if you too are mentioning Christchurch area.
"by flyer | 13th Jul 21, 10:10am
It's all about context. Record high prices are still going up, in the middle of winter.
Bring on summer.
I've just made 260k on a new build bought in Oct 2020 while it was being built. Now sold. Proof is in the pudding.
Prices where I'm are going up 50k a month. A new subdivision with all new houses, highly attractive to most people. I can't see the train stopping.
Everyone who can invest are milking it. They may say it's not great for first home buyers but they turn around and snap up the properties. Sad truth but that's the reality"
A lot of 'I's in that post. Keep looking after No.1 mate cause that's all that matters right?
Absolutely look after no.1. Tell me you would say no to 260k profit for the betterment of society. You too would take the money. That's what's happening out there and it's the reality.
Are you even reading the posts before you puff your chest out and type, like several others he states he has the ability to invest in property but chose not to, I know mind blowing eh! Some people have a social conscience and have the intelligence to create wealth without blind speculation and selling future generations down the river.
Not everyone is like that, I've been in a position since midway through last year where I could have purchased rentals, even created a spreadsheet to do some sums and the numbers added up even without the windfall capital gains that have ended up happening.
However I've seen first hand how my family members have struggled to purchase their first home, making 10+ offers and only ending up successful when going against normal advice and making unconditional offers. I'd hate to be the offer that trumps a first home buyer and makes them suffer through the same fate. It's not just financial but it's been bad for their mental health too.
I've done perfectly fine in the sharemarket, but nothing like a 20%+ gain on a leveraged property.
Yes I am in the same situation as you morepork hence my dislike of arrogant, self centered pricks who couldn't give a toss about anyone but themselves. I could 'invest' in property today if I wanted but I don't because I don't like what this insane feeding frenzy is doing to my country and more importantly my kids country. People will justify it till the cows come home and you can blame whoever but the fact is, everyone has a choice to be a part of it or not! I couldn't give a crap about being 'rich', especially a rich a-hole.
Great if you are a FHB and manage to get into the market though. Equity is not an issue for long.
I built my first home last year for $616k (moved in a few months ago) and just got a new valuation done which came back at $985k.
Within one year I have gone from scrapping together 20% deposit on my first house to having enough equity that the bank would let me buy a $900k investment property with no money down.
That equity is still a loan though. You'd be sitting on what, $1.4 mill in mortgages if you went ahead? I've looked at investment properties, we bought just shy over $200k in 2017 with a 25% deposit, now worth $550k according to Corelogic in the ANZ banking app.
I'm thinking we just ride it out for a couple more years, see what this Covid thing does. Either the market pumps up another 20% and we're winning some more, or it tanks and we're well insulated from any pain.
Maybe Orr was right about the cooling (that’s not falling) of the housing market. :)
Auckland HPI hit another record high.
Looks like a good window opportunity to enter the market.
Be quick.
I tried and failed. House prices still going for crazy amounts. Agents still trying to get multi offers to bid against you to push up price.
I think these crazy amounts will be a contributing factor to the demise of Wellington. A lot of people I know who live there are now considering leaving the city as they can no longer afford to buy, and renting isn't an attractive long-term option.
Yep. And Wellington doesn't really have a lot going for it, unless you have a well-paid gov't job.
There are loads of IT jobs. Not all Government.
Many are heading from Wellington to the Wairarapa, causing houses , and especially land, to reach Wellington prices in areas. Masterton for example has one of the highest house price rises in the country.
Yes we have. 2017 purchased for a touch over $200k in a short stroll from the train station. Corelogic value is now $550k. Problem is if you cash up where do you move, Eketahuna?
a lot of agents are also getting burnt out there. Our neighbour went to Auction a month ago in the hutt valley- Agent told them they would get $450K over RV. It and the other house auctioned that day attracted zero bids (the neighbour was furious) - neighbour - ended up selling for just $250K over the RV. Another house in the area -went to auction first week June- attracted no bids- listed at $1.7M (770K over RV) yesterday it was still listed and price was now down to $1.4M (still seriously overpriced).
It looks like most of the people willing to pay anything left the market in April
Which part of the country?
It seems to be agents that are giving sellers these high expectations. But in the last month I have seen houses with BEO over, drop in price.
IMO NZ should be ashamed of itself and all the greed that has resulted from this. A house you live in is not an investment.
There is very little inventory on the market at the moment and over winter not as many people looking. So not as many people bidding up the prices. Very few houses are coming on the market. But this will change as we head into summer
Its hardly breaking News ! and prices continue to rise, wait for the new version of the RMA then you will see prices go thru the roof. The first draft is complete and it is being well hidden from the public. It is a behemoth of a document.
It's through the roof already, mate. Next, to the moon!!!!
I hear rumours of the change from 3 story buildings to 6 story buildings in the burbs, can you imagine the increase in land prices if that happens ?
This is already the case in Hamilton but the Developer Contributions policy keeps a lid on developer enthusiasm
During June we have divested our dear mothers property collection . The three properties averaging a compounded average 15 percent price increase over a period of 31 years. Remarkable.
And not a cent paid forward in tax - well done to your Dear mother and yourself.
Oh god salty much
More remarkable was the government offer of a zero percent loan against her assets to cover her residential home care fees .
..unlike some who would have avoided the charge altogether by having the property in trust.
Permanently high plateau
So where is the down turnaround or the recession or the deflation which government and the RBNZ was talking about when they took the rates down to. 25%? That was their logic right? Now we are going to have inflation and house prices are unaffordable for almost everyone. People are still buying in this inflated market because they do not have a choice. We elect politicians to give us a choice, to make it reasonable for everyone so not only a few profit from many. And what did they deliver? If RBNZ can take interest down in a flash, what is the reason to not increase it now and try to make it reasonable for a hard working average young kiwi to be able do buy a house? If can't control the market then tax the ones making money from speculation and share it with one's who are earning average wage to be able to buy a house. Shouldn't this what a team of 5 million leader should be doing or its a team of 5 million only when it's convenient to them and not otherwise?
Exactly. The only recession is in international tourism.
Orr got it wrong.
..and netted off with outward tourism is not big deal. Has always been a BS industry, profits to overseas owned Motels and agents and wasted resources. Crumbs made locally by hiring cheap labour.
An industry we are well shot of. Time to take it off life support.
Agree
We avoided it due to the massive cash injection into the economy via housing debt.
Whatever you do, don't panic, there's always something that can be done to goose prices higher.
Check this headline in NZherald : "House price frenzy: Property prices up again, dashing buyers' hopes of a winter bargain"
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2021/07/house-price-frenzy-propert…
AND in interest.co.nz :
"House prices flattening out as market cools over winter"
One data but different headline gives different perception = Greg NInness your comment on it, please .
Reality is that Housing Prices are still high and headlines adding to FOMO, which will fuel the housing market further as their is no other place than housing market in NZ to make safe (Supported by rbnz and government), easy, fast and BIG money, many a time tax free - check with your accountant unless flipping too many house.
None of power who can make a difference will act, so FHB should not have any hope and carry on with realisation that they and their childerns are screwed unless they find opportunities overseas.
Monthly vs annual measurements. Both can be valid yet paint different pictures.
Spruiking property is a lucrative revenue stream for NZME / The Herald.
They have rockstars like Ashley Church, Tony Alexander, Anne Gibson, Ron Hoy Fong and other vile creatures always pushing a certain carefully crafted narrative.
Best to just recognise that ghastly tabloid "newspaper" for what it really is.
Jacinda should do a regular house price media conference. Juts like she does with covid. She could take questions and even answer some.
It would be really cool...kinda like they used to do in democracies in the old days.
She does'nt answer questions, she just puts some spin on the question as the answer, then the media move on.
https://www.afr.com/property/residential/global-boom-in-house-prices-be…
In the coming week, central bankers in New Zealand, South Korea and Canada meet to set policy, with soaring home prices in each country spurring pressure to do something to keep homes affordable for regular workers.
New Zealand policymakers are battling the hottest property market in the world, according to the Bloomberg Economics global bubble ranking. The central bank, which meets Wednesday, has been given another tool to tackle the issue, and its projections for the official cash rate show it is starting to rise in the second half of 2022.
Inventory levels are very low so I'd suggest there is a possibility of a blow-off-top.
"In Auckland, the country's biggest market by far, the median price hit a new record of $1,150,000"
I just can not believe that people are still piling in at that price for abject shit boxes. It absolutely beggars belief. Take a good hard look at yourself NZ.
As long as credit is practically free to borrow, the sky is the limit. The real problem is interest rates are just to low,. For the average Joe, the central banks have got a lot to answer for.
There is almost no inventory available. Whatever is available is dogsh*t and going for auction with all the games that involves. The reserve price will be a magical number unbeknown to mortals, but if you are dealing with the scumbags from barfoot and thompson add 20% to whatever range they lie about. They know exactly what the reserve will be and they are extremely deceitful about it. I would recommend avoiding dealing with them at all costs.
Anyway, it is what it is, nothing is going to change in this country until sudden disaster strikes because the clowns in wellington don't actually believe high prices are the problem.
Are we at "Delusion" or "New Paradigm"
https://transportgeography.org/contents/chapter3/transportation-and-eco…
New paradigm.
I will say that graph doesn't take into account underlying factors and reasons for bursting but it would appear we're in a large bubble.
We have the most unaffordable housing in the world - this is a fact. In the whole world. A sparsely populated country at the arse end of the world.
Climate emergency? Stopping oil and gas investment meaning higher prices for petrol and electricity for all? High five! Dual systems of funding and governance for the Maori? Wow a must have!
Mental health emergency? Nah we are not accountable.
Fair pay for Nurses? Nah we are not accountable.
Not being able to execute on any Health related expenditure? Launch an "investigation".
Spending a million $ a day on hotels for the homeless? Aroha, team of 5 mill etc,
No young person, even as a couple, able to afford a liveable new home in this country without their parents owning a home?...
This government is the worst in my living memory. I am ashamed to have voted them in on their deceptive promises to fix housing.
We have the most unaffordable housing in the world - this is a fact. In the whole world.
Except that's not fact, and it's not true.
Is there somewhere in the world (the parts that matter) that is worse?
Some here want us to compare ourselves to Shanghai. It is apparently impossible for a rickshaw driver to buy one of their new apartments in that amazing city.
In terms of prices relative to income it's true.
Nah, it's not quite true. In terms of the OECD which is where all the graphs in the media come from, it is true. In terms of the whole world... house price to income ratios are waaaay worse in most of China/Hong Kong. For instance Shanghai sits around 50x the median multiple and Hong Kong around 20x. It seems like it puts Auckland to shame (and in many ways does), but they have very different economies, making them very difficult to compare. But try to buy a house in either of those places as a local and it will still be much harder than Auckland.
OK well there are an unlimited number of reasons for that, but yes I should have qualified this as an OECD context. If we start to take in our global neighbours as comparisons then we have comparatively no social ills whatsoever lol!
It isn't a Western economy though and also not a democracy. So a totally different situation. Hong Kong has alwayy been expensive partly because it is a tiny island with limited land. NZ has heaps of buildable land compared to it's population, but it is artificially constrained and land banked
ok, perhaps I made a spelling mistake as well somewhere? But in fairness yes I should not have exaggerated this point for effect... It is an all of OECD context.
Yeah they are garbage.
I think I have permanently given up hope that we'll get any government that does the right thing by this country.
They are all a waste of vote, I won't bother next time.
Unfortunately housing wasn't really considered an issue in the last election. It was a covid election. Many national voters then voted for labour to make sure they had a majority and so greens policies over property wouldn't come in.
Well it was a massive issue innm the election before that and Labour have disappointed on most fronts.
They are the definition of 'Over promise, under deliver'.
When the rest of the world goes BOOM your going to be glad your down in the arse end of the world. Plenty of countries falling to bits as we speak, South Africa popped today.
I voted for them on the back of this promise also. Nothing to be ashamed of. Just remember next time round that they didn't deliver.
Barfoots had NSC sales up 70% on June 2020
REINZ has it as about 30%?
This is not the first time either.
The Gaussian curve for sales mania continues to decline from peak, which was December (comparing to 12m earlier)
Auckland sales growth MoM also dropping rapidly: only 0.1% this month
Meanwhile NZ excl Auckland responds to silly prices by reduced purchasing, quell surprise.
Fear of paying too much in face of gathering economic problems (inflation, decline in GDP as economy wanes with probable lockdowns and snail like vaccination to come; freight problems for export nation)
Notice news media coverage of freight issue utterly feeble. For NZ it is this that will make inflation higher than forecast. RBNZ and government not in ballpark re world economic forces.
China slowing, USA not getting enough vaccinated and recovery inadequate v stimulus put in.
The economic consequences of massive stimulus now beginning to assert themselves.
Interest rate rise by November
Sales in NSC ( a bellwether for Auckland sales) ran 13.5% of the 10 year (2011-20) average in summer months of 2020. And about 73% ahead of year prev comparison for Oct 20 - May 21. In June this fell, YoY, to 28%
But this was simply making up for the sales for July, Aug and Sept running 27% below the 10 year average in 2017-19 inclusive. hence the gaussian curve is now reverting to the mean, as usual.
The 3m of July-Sept in NSC averaged 1650 sales for the 3m block, in the prev decade (2011-20)
In 2020 it was 1875.
In 2017-19 it was 1196 (per year for that 3m)
After a while the prev deficit of buying is filled in by this part of cycle's surfeit of buying and hence sales taper off.
Hence, on the current trend, the sales for NSC and prob rest of Auckland will resume the secular trend of decline that has been going on since 2006
The secular trend is due to a lower % of pop owning each year and that segment getting older, and hence moving less.
Flattening is good
Except is was supposed to flatten at Auckland 825k, but then came the playmoney from Orr
https://i.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/125729804/house-pric…
Headlines says that house price defies.....rise by 30%. DEFIES ? Is this not what Orr and Jacinda wants so why be surprised. ?
There are so many people in this thread being salty about the conditions we are in. It’s a marketplace where we know supply is behind demand. As long as the economics of affordability and serviceability for buyers stack up and the investors or should I say, more so the developers have access to credit + 20% + RoI on projects, nothing would change. Wait till next year when the supply meets demand..
It's a market place manipulated by the RBNZ & NZ govt.
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