Average residential property values are continuing to rise throughout the country but the rate at which they are increasing is slowing, according to property data company CoreLogic.
The average value of New Zealand homes was $890,848 at the end of May, according to the CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI).
That was up $19,473 from $871,375 at the end of April.
Both figures are a three month rolling average, based on sales made over the previous three months.
They show the average value of NZ homes increased by 7.7% in the three months from March to May, but that rate of growth was down from 8.1% over the three months from February to April.
CoreLogic publishes rolling average value figures for 100 urban districts throughout the country and of those, the rate of growth slowed over the three months to the end of May compared to the three months to the end of April, in 53 of them, increased in 45 and was unchanged in two. (The table below shows the latest CoreLogic average values in all 100 districts and the rate of change over three and 12 months).
CoreLogic's head of research Nick Goodall, said the slowing in the rate of growth reflected changes to the tax treatment of residential investment properties and mortgage borrowing rules recently announced by the Government and Reserve Bank (RBNZ).
"In the last few weeks both the Government and RBNZ have released house price forecasts with expectations of a significant reduction in growth over coming months," Goodall said.
"The CoreLogic HPI provides some evidence of this, while analysis of preliminary sales data goes a step further, illustrating the most recent sales are not performing at the same level as those earlier in the year.
"This reflects the impact of both the tightened loan-to-valuation ratio (LVR) restrictions imposed by the RBNZ, as well as the March 23 housing policy announcement from the Government, phasing out the ability for [residential] property investors to deduct their interest expenses from their end of year tax returns," he said.
Expectations of higher mortgage interest rates would also weigh on the market.
"Further adding to the complexity, we are also now navigating a changing environment when it comes to the interest rate outlook," Goodall said.
"As the RBNZ forecast in their latest Monetary Policy Statement, the next move for the Official Cash Rate is expected to be up, albeit in at least a year's time, but this is likely to weigh on buyer attitudes with regards to taking on large sums of debt."
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| CoreLogic House Price Index | ||||
| Three Months to the End of May 2021 | ||||
| Territorial authority | Average current value $ | 3 month change % | 12 month change % | |
| Far North | 571,273 | 4.2% | 16.1% | |
| Whangarei | 717,234 | 10.0% | 22.3% | |
| Kaipara | 728,283 | 9.1% | 26.2% | |
| Auckland - Rodney | 1,161,225 | 6.4% | 18.0% | |
| Rodney - Hibiscus Coast | 1,119,237 | 5.9% | 16.2% | |
| Rodney - North | 1,199,308 | 6.8% | 19.3% | |
| Auckland - North Shore | 1,435,123 | 4.8% | 14.1% | |
| North Shore - Coastal | 1,642,899 | 4.7% | 14.6% | |
| North Shore - North Harbour | 1,360,049 | 5.4% | 12.0% | |
| North Shore - Onewa | 1,179,259 | 4.1% | 15.0% | |
| Auckland - Waitakere | 1,020,171 | 7.6% | 18.9% | |
| Auckland - Central | 1,483,594 | 4.6% | 15.4% | |
| Auckland City - Central | 1,247,331 | 2.1% | 11.3% | |
| Auckland City - Islands | 1,442,300 | 12.3% | 26.6% | |
| Auckland City - South | 1,342,536 | 3.9% | 16.7% | |
| Auckland_City - East | 1,877,005 | 6.0% | 15.7% | |
| Auckland - Manukau | 1,117,024 | 6.6% | 19.1% | |
| Manukau - Central | 879,216 | 7.5% | 21.7% | |
| Manukau - East | 1,443,767 | 7.1% | 20.4% | |
| Manukau - North West | 956,781 | 5.5% | 16.7% | |
| Auckland - Papakura | 876,926 | 8.1% | 21.2% | |
| Auckland - Franklin | 829,865 | 6.8% | 20.5% | |
| Thames Coromandel | 1,013,826 | 9.2% | 23.5% | |
| Hauraki | 508,892 | -0.2% | 10.2% | |
| Waikato | 641,995 | 9.3% | 22.1% | |
| Matamata Piako | 577,453 | 2.5% | 14.5% | |
| Hamilton | 786,903 | 10.4% | 25.1% | |
| Hamilton - Central & North West | 734,647 | 10.4% | 24.5% | |
| Hamilton - North East | 956,909 | 9.8% | 23.6% | |
| Hamilton - South East | 730,391 | 10.7% | 24.9% | |
| Hamilton - South West | 709,143 | 9.5% | 27.2% | |
| Waipa | 760,109 | 7.6% | 19.2% | |
| Otorohanga | ||||
| South Waikato | 374,863 | 2.0% | 16.1% | |
| Waitomo | 325,298 | 22.2% | 32.0% | |
| Taupo | 736,441 | 14.8% | 29.2% | |
| Western BOP | 848,159 | 6.1% | 19.9% | |
| Tauranga | 968,342 | 10.6% | 22.2% | |
| Rotorua | 663,269 | 9.7% | 28.1% | |
| Whakatane | 677,726 | 10.6% | 31.5% | |
| Kawerau | 366,505 | 8.0% | 23.9% | |
| Opotiki | 470,452 | 8.3% | 27.4% | |
| Gisborne | 590,915 | 8.6% | 36.0% | |
| Wairoa | 381,026 | 18.9% | 52.4% | |
| Hastings | 764,908 | 10.4% | 28.9% | |
| Napier | 796,206 | 12.6% | 30.1% | |
| Central Hawkes Bay | 521,036 | 8.0% | 28.6% | |
| New Plymouth | 633,510 | 8.4% | 24.9% | |
| Stratford | 439,633 | 14.1% | 36.5% | |
| South Taranaki | 373,399 | 6.0% | 30.9% | |
| Ruapehu | 342,227 | 9.1% | 31.9% | |
| Whanganui | 500,313 | 10.8% | 35.2% | |
| Rangitikei | 432,427 | 15.2% | 51.7% | |
| Manawatu | 602,778 | 10.6% | 29.3% | |
| Palmerston North | 684,797 | 11.4% | 34.3% | |
| Tararua | 420,591 | 20.1% | 49.0% | |
| Horowhenua | 583,467 | 12.3% | 32.7% | |
| Kapiti Coast | 901,401 | 12.5% | 34.7% | |
| Porirua | 896,874 | 9.2% | 29.5% | |
| Upper Hutt | 844,169 | 12.8% | 33.3% | |
| Lower Hutt | 891,387 | 11.7% | 29.5% | |
| Wellington City | 1,118,348 | 10.5% | 25.0% | |
| Wellington - Central & South | 1,086,646 | 9.3% | 22.5% | |
| Wellington - East | 1,201,493 | 12.7% | 24.6% | |
| Wellington - North | 1,040,759 | 10.7% | 27.3% | |
| Wellington - West | 1,279,520 | 10.3% | 25.8% | |
| Masterton | 594,230 | 8.7% | 39.5% | |
| Carterton | 674,451 | 14.7% | 41.8% | |
| South Wairarapa | 785,108 | 7.3% | 34.5% | |
| Tasman | 751,731 | 8.4% | 19.4% | |
| Nelson | 758,808 | 5.2% | 15.3% | |
| Marlborough | 682,122 | 11.3% | 32.3% | |
| Kaikoura | 536,060 | 4.3% | 16.1% | |
| Buller | 258,684 | 7.7% | 24.1% | |
| Grey | 285,898 | 11.7% | 25.2% | |
| Westland | 330,771 | 12.4% | 19.3% | |
| Hurunui | 497,344 | 13.6% | 24.6% | |
| Waimakariri | 549,207 | 7.7% | 18.5% | |
| Christchurch | 612,988 | 8.5% | 18.5% | |
| Christchurch - Banks Peninsula | 658,391 | 9.2% | 20.1% | |
| Christchurch - Central & North | 707,789 | 7.2% | 17.0% | |
| Christchurch - East | 472,410 | 9.2% | 19.9% | |
| Christchurch - Hills | 836,396 | 8.0% | 19.2% | |
| Christchurch - Southwest | 585,925 | 9.9% | 19.2% | |
| Selwyn | 668,384 | 9.6% | 18.4% | |
| Ashburton | 436,565 | 7.0% | 16.7% | |
| Timaru | 441,268 | 4.5% | 12.6% | |
| MacKenzie | 623,375 | 6.0% | 4.9% | |
| Waimate | 336,035 | 5.5% | 15.7% | |
| Waitaki | 421,663 | 3.5% | 19.7% | |
| Central Otago | 670,859 | 9.0% | 12.3% | |
| Queenstown Lakes | 1,344,802 | 8.1% | 10.4% | |
| Dunedin | 646,313 | 5.7% | 17.0% | |
| Dunedin - Central & North | 665,211 | 5.1% | 18.3% | |
| Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal | 599,133 | 7.5% | 21.7% | |
| Dunedin - South | 619,254 | 6.1% | 14.9% | |
| Dunedin - Taieri | 669,104 | 5.5% | 15.9% | |
| Clutha | 337,110 | 3.6% | 15.9% | |
| Southland | 410,863 | 9.0% | 15.4% | |
| Gore | 335,973 | 2.2% | 20.3% | |
| Invercargill | 427,392 | 6.5% | 22.1% | |
| Auckland Region | 1,265,071 | 5.5% | 16.5% | |
| Main Urban Areas | 1,011,300 | 7.2% | 19.3% | |
| Wellington Region | 1,001,732 | 10.8% | 27.2% | |
| Total NZ | 890,848 | 7.7% | 20.5% | |
84 Comments
Christchurch
Average Value: $612,988
3 month change: 8.5%
12 month change: 18.5%
Hey! Go buy somewhere else! lol :)
Masterton
Average Value: $594,230
3 month change: 8.7%
12 month change: 39.5%
I bought elsewhere, after leaving Christchurch 5 years ago.
I suspect a lot of investors came in hoping for more yield.
dp
Median, 3 mths 12 mths
Gisborne: 590,915, 8.6%, 36.0%
Wairoa 381,026 18.9% 52.4%
Hastings 764,908 10.4% 28.9%
Napier 796,206 12.6% 30.1%
Seems to support the local view quite a few FHB are moving into the east coast.
Wairoa at 381K is an absolute bargain, yeah right.
Havelock North is now a $1M+ suburb and the traffic around the "CBD" and domain is getting ridiculous at peak times, the place just can't handle the rapid expansion. People are even paying $1.2M+ for near-new builds within sniffing distance of the mushroom farm.
Havelock North now more expensive than London too?
No bubble to see here.
To be fair, Havelock North is the Knightsbridge of, um, Hastings...
Its Auckland based investors pushing those prices. I used to go to Wairoa for the boil up pies in my travels, bakery changed hands so I don't go there anymore. Apart from that there is SFA in Wairoa.
It just makes life hard for locals.
Im not sure how the above happened. Logged in with press patron and became Kate on here ? Apologies to Kate.
Jacinda will be happy with those Gisborne numbers pumping that 400k salary into the region through the hubby. Shame its an isolated hole not worth the road trip to get to let a lone move to for any career prospect, one thing we know Jacinda cant do and that is create jobs, economic activity, basically anything other than "feels" which lead directly to the "feels" we have seen that drove NZ house prices up 25% during a pandemic that included a period of economic recession.
Chch:
Average Value: $612,988
3 month change: 8.5%
12 month change: 18.5
Palmy
Average Value: 684,797
3 month change: 11.4%
12 month change: 34.3%
Isn't this just ...winter?
"The average value of New Zealand homes was $890,848 at the end of May". Shocking. This value would and should be no more than $300k. What a ridiculous mess the RBNZ has created. Shambolic.
It seems to be the land that has gone up. Land prices in some parts have doubled in a year with lots of people reselling land they purchased last year.
“Would and should be no more than 300k” just throw out any old arbitrary figure hey Groat
Median NZ wage is not even 60k. 5 x 60k = $300k. This is madness! We are crushing our youth!
Don't agree. It's not we, it's our policy makers that give us no other choice. If CPI would reflect true happenings. But we vote for them so it's still us I guess.
You typically still make gains into a head wind.
So business as usual then.
BlackKrim?
Hard won gains. Id suggest sailing into a 30 knot head wind and 3m swells in a trailer sailer, then come back and let us know how you went.
Palmerston North 34.3%...sunny and the beach is amazing!
No beaches no worries - save those for the cities flooding during king tides with rising sea water and eroding away at rate payer cost.
15 min drive to some nice beaches a small price to pay to be far enough away from the absolute moronic local council governance of anything as complicated as coastal erosion, sea level rises
Sometimes fast is better.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TczQZUboe0
Haha! Nordic bogan farmers.
Greg,
Thanks for the write-up. I do think your description of the index could be improved. As you probably know it's based on the average of *settlements* over the past three months. It's important because for a 6 week settlement period, it implies about 1/2 of the sales in it happened before the Govt announcement. It also implies only 1/6 of the information content is new since the REINZ release.
I look forward to your REINZ write-up. That's the real news. Worth commenting on the seasonally-adjusted numbers as it is hard for people to draw conclusions otherwise ("isn't this just a normal winter?").
Thanks again
Macrology
Agreed - as you note CoreLogic data is somewhat delayed compared to other data.
However, CoreLogic data is based on title registration. Sequence is agreements (including auctions), going unconditional (REINZ data), settlement, registration of title (Core Logic).
Expect the next REINZ to start to show impact of Government announcements . . . those announcements were a lot more severe than many expected and next REINZ data will start to reflect that.
However auction data and on-set of winter not indicating (note "indicating") a significant fall but certainly some cooling.
I think some impact of the March 23 announcements would have been seen in the April REINZ figures, i.e. those released in mid-May. Agree we'll get a clearer picture from the May figures (to be released mid-June) though.
Too late.
Too late.
So lets see..
Lower Hutt in March 823K, April 856K, May 891K
Upper Hutt in March 788K, April 818K, May 844K
Wellington City in March 1.046M, April 1.085M, May 1.118M
So this is their version of a slowdown huh..
It's bubblicious
It doesn't make sense because I thought the selling prices in Lower Hutt had dropped last month. But these quoted prices seem to not be selling prices, but average value. Stats can be cherry picked.
Old data at least couple months out of date based on settlements
A sad indictment on the leadership of this country.
They should be tarred and feathered for their negligence.
I'm surprised that people are more docile about it to be honest. Politicians may act a bit more swiftly if there were fear of real consequences. I'm not advocating violence by any stretch but I'm amazed that someone hasn't lost the plot and struck a little fear into the politicians.
Why are you surprised? As long as their demographic voters are well fed and are able to to be housed on government supplements there is no cause for dissatisfaction.
That's why although we dislike Labour, we actually didn't mind the ticks giving two ticks to Labour on election day.
There must be a decent chunk of the young population halfway between beneficiaries and upper middle income earners who must be getting pissed off.
I guess it's still a pretty small proportion of the population, maybe 10-15%
Most have or plan to leave the country. Even with minimal training it is still a better option. Hence more an ageing population. For the young once you can, you leave.
Now seems like a more obvious time than usual. Even if you want to be here long term you're much better off going to Australia to save first. That's what I did.
Agreed...record low interest rates then removal of LVR's was always going to fuel the fire!
Should I buy now?
There's no such thing as a good time to buy- anytime is a good time.
For the usual folks, they are better off buying on the way up.
Those who think they could time the market are still renting 10 years on- there are quite a few in here.
Go figure.
Right before the whole ponzi scheme collapses would not be a good time. In fact, it would be a very bad time.
You've got to laugh though. The cultural mecca of Waitakere now has a higher median house price than London. It's the new paradigm! What could possibly go wrong.
Is that you " Houses overpriced" or maybe you "Retired Poppy" ?
Houses are indeed overpriced, but I'm a lot further from retirement age than you Yves.
LOL. In international terms, however you look at it house prices in NZ are now a complete joke. Well beyond bubble or Ponzi territory, this is "sick joke" territory - nothing to do with reality and it will require increasingly heavy and ever more desperate market manipulation to prevent the whole house of card from collapsing.
"Should I buy now?"
It's always better to buy yesterday but since you can't do that, yes buy now. Are you going to follow the advice?
Are you buying Yvil, if it's such a sure thing?
If not, why not?
If you are as confident in property as you are making out I would have thought you would be buying property left, right and centre.
Yvil has been selling. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Well the RB governor has said house price growth will drop to almost zero soon. The problem at the moment is a lack of supply so there are some pretty poor houses being sold and a poor selection. The question is do people need to buy now and wait for the madness to subside. Still a huge number of people at the lower to mid end of the market looking on Wellingtion. Eg around the million dollar mark. Lol
Expensive today cheap tomorrow
No. Save and wait.
Always better to be in the market than out.
Look at the droves of people on here posting everyday that they can’t buy a house hating life.
Renting absolutely sucks there is no comparison
Can't wait for Mach 1. Maybe have to wait till Easter.
To little to late I'm afraid. The damage is already done and even if prices don't move for years there will still be those that never catch up.
History has shown that prices in NZ can drop or stagnate. If prices go sideways, taking into account inflation, then that is similar to a drop.
House price 'growth' isn't inevitable or necessarily permanent. Growth suggests a mighty tree with internal resources to sustain its own life. Increase is a better word. Like 'the crime rate has increased'.
When the borders open up next year and immigration gets back to pre-covid levels I wonder what impact that will have on house prices?
Zooming, a different kind from the online video
They have already said they won't be going back up to those levels. NZ don't have the infrastructure or housing to cope with todays population
Sure they’ve announced reduced immigration but does anyone actually believe anything they say anymore?
Fake news - or at least very misleading. The bottom end of the market has completely collapsed. Very, very few sales going to investors atm. With a few exceptions, the vendors of those properties haven't started dropping their prices just yet. This is of course inflating the average price since only the more expensive owner occupier houses are selling - but not necessarily for higher prices. Watch the next few months as that bottom quartile starts panicking and more vendors start accepting the lower offers as they realise there's no more upside. The whole pyramid will start unwinding from the bottom up...
4ever
Re: "The bottom end of the market has completely collapsed."
What data are you basing your assertion on?
Not saying that it won't happen, but I've not seen any data so far supporting that.
Live4ever, good to know that you have better data than CoreLogic & Interest. Greg Niness, could you please re-write your article to suit Live4ever's superior data, thanks lol
Its not controlled by the market, its controlled by the banks with the reserve bank in behind. the banks and the govt and investors have bet everything on the house. this is the only game in town! NZ cannot tolerate a correction, and it will not be allowed to the extent it puts pressure the banks. If it starts to reverse, watch Labour start marketing for the next wave of inbound migration! Import rich people wanting to escape covid and export young talent.
Its like turning a supertanker. Everything is poised to turn the boom around but little to nothing seems to be happening. This does not mean the turn has not started.
Personally I think the tax change around leveraging debt to avoid your personal income tax is the silver bullet. Its just taking time to manifest. The headwinds are now increasingly replacing the tailwinds of the last decade. low future gains, you will pay tax on your income and gains, the new tenancy rules, the extra standards costs, council rates hikes, rent increases limitations....and now all banks calling increased interest rates. Why would you go long on property debt now...?
Because a clown on the internet says "it's always a good time to buy"?
That's a very smart clown. Most likely s very wealthy clown with a great lifestyle too. A generous clown as well who tries to help others
by sharing his wisdom that it's always a good time to buy.
The clown cant stop smiling... or is it smirking
Its always a good time to buy crypto. Honk Honk.
Since you are a 'serious business person', look forward to seeing your comments on other non-housing, business articles on this website of which there are many, one day.
Or maybe you really are just a property spruiker?
I'm not saying I'd go long on property debt but there's plenty reasons to name a few others would:
1. Leverage
2. Protected by clear property laws
3. Growth and yield
4. Tax changes not that bad
5. Where else average punter going to get a return on and of capital from something they're familiar with
There may not be a return though. Property is now unaffordable for most first home buyers in many towns and cities.
The oracle,
The answer is simple- a portfolio of largely NZ dividend paying shares. I have both; a rental property in Mt. maunganui for over 20 years and a much larger share portfolio concentrated on high quality dividend paying shares.
Both have done very well, but the share portfolio wins hands down. On the property, i must deduct rates, insurance and variable maintenance costs from the rent, while my portfolio incurs no holding costs other than small occasional buy/sell commission to an on-line platform. I can at any time, buy or sell small parcels of shares, something that is impossible to do with a property.
I like having both shares and property for diversification, but if i only had one, it would certainly be the share portfolio.
Good to see that the 'first signs of a slowdown in house prices' mean that Wellington prices only rose a grand a day.
We just need to encourage Prime Minister Ardern to make another speech telling us house prices can't keep skyrocketing to really stoke the market again. I guess the lesson would be not to take economic forecasts from a politician.
New Zealand is all-in on housing and probably will be until rates start rising for a prolonged period. You can't blame people for acting and voting in self interest.
That’s because in Wellington there are bugger all auctions. It’s all tendering.
NZ is in a house wealth fog! This is debt fuelled inflation for bank profits using cheap RBNZ QE. Now NZ has the amazing achievement of creating a tradable house market that is now a business for many citizens, with investors owing half of all the stock. Govt etc wont touch it because house inflation is fuelling consumption, example record BMW sales in a year when we had the first pandemic in 100 years! This is shit is madness! actually so many of us say this but nothing happens.
Part of the problem is low IQ tribalism when election time rolls around.
Team Red and Team Blue are both part of the same dog**** franchise.
Well both govt's have bet on the house! Now it cant be unwound or no more BMW sales! Labour is largely a marketing and promotion organisation, just use media and PR (propoganda) for the masses, tell us its all OK. This really kicked off on mass when Ardern got the daily briefings opportunity.
Agreed. Labour was voted in to address Nationals property boosting policy's, but they have ended up been worse in so many ways. Accordingly they are either incompetent, or cant be trusted - probably both. Be bold and vote to relocate the tax base away from productive work and onto land. Opportunities policy would have 100% solved this issue, but only got 1.54% of the vote. Every kiwi overseas should vote for this in 2023.
Horowhenua 583,467 12.3% 32.7%
A lot happening in Levin can't see the growth slowing dramatically over the next 12 months!
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