A cooling breeze blew across the housing market in April, with sales well down compared to March and the national median price also easing.
The latest data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand shows that 7218 residential properties throughout the country were sold in April, down 28% compared to March.
However, that was not unexpected because March is usually the busiest month of the year and sales start to drop away in April as the market heads towards the quieter winter months.
And April's sales were at still their highest level for that month in five years, suggesting the market remains relatively buoyant.
The decline in sales was evident in almost all parts of the country, with Marlborough the only region where sales increased in April compared to March (+10.7%).
All other regions posted double digit declines ranging from -11.8% in Taranaki to -41% on the West Coast.
In the main urban districts, sales were down -34.7% in Auckland, -18.2% in the Wellington Region, -23.6% Canterbury and -33.9% in Otago (see the sales chart below for the full regional sales trends).
Prices also eased overall, with April's national median selling price of $810,000 down by 1.8% compared to March.
However, there were big regional differences in price movements with median prices declining compared to March in: Northland -6.9%, Bay of Plenty -3.6%, Wellington -1.4% Tasman -4.2%, Canterbury -1.6%, West Coast -8.3% and Southland -3.1%.
Median prices in all other region were up in April compared to March, with the median price for all of New Zealand excluding Auckland up 1.6% for the month.
In Auckland the median price was up 0.4% compared to March (see the median price chart below for the price trends in all regions).
"While the national picture represents the busiest April in five years, the reality is that we've seen the number of sales decrease when compared to March," REINZ Acting Chief Executive Wendy Alexander said.
"While in part this is what we expect to happen when moving from March to April, there is definitely a wait and see approach from a number of investors and also some first time buyers," she said.
"Some of these falls in sales volumes are likely to be early signs of the LVRs slowing the market, some will be attributed to the [tax] changes announced on 23 March and some are likely to be the fact we have the lowest level of inventory for an April month since records began."
The comment stream on this story is now closed.
Volumes sold - REINZ
Select chart tabs
Median price - REINZ
Select chart tabs
124 Comments
Stuff’s headline:
“Housing market still running hot with April a boomer month for sales, latest REINZ figures show”
Interest’s headline:
“Median house prices declined 1.8% in April compared to March, sales down 28% - REINZ”
I was a bit shocked that no monthly comparison on both Stuff and nz herald. Media bias's at its finest. You wonder why there is FOMO behind this...
It is still hot and is just taking a breather with less speed as expected in April / winter.
Headline could also be : Median house price still up by 12% since starting of the year and up by 35% since start of panademic despite little slow down in April.
Watch the exodus to Oz once things settle a bit more. Where you can get a home and a decent job and reasonably priced food.
The biggest concern for the government should be the public sector workers affected by the wage freeze, making up 15% of NZ's workforce, deciding to leave for greener pastures.
In addition to significant pay premiums across the ditch for medical specialists (the union estimates 20-40%), the majority are facing higher PAYE deductions this year in NZ with no wage increases.
Not just the existing public sector workforce.
It's not a great selling point when trying to recruit.
There may be an exodus into NZ, given world events. NZ is seen as a Covid paradise. Lot of people around the globe have been traumatized through endless lockdowns and will need (understandably) a fresh start.
Oh yeah, cheap labour to keep our low wage economy trundling along. The last couple of governments have had an 'open borders' policy setting and I guess we should expect a continuation. These new imports can replace the NZ born Kiwi's who will be leaving in droves.
If we can set minimum standards for the incoming migrants. Replacing lower quality kiwis who can’t cut it here with harder working / smarter migrants would actually be beneficial to the nation as a whole!
Doesn't work sadr. What do you do with the lower quality kiwis ? Not useful to have a bunch destined to sit on the couch forever and a cost to the nation both financially and socially. Better to have them involved at some level of input.
Agree. Great comment. Lower level kiwis need education and training and for most it must be workplace based with literacy support and pastoral care. Lift an individual up and you lift the whole family.
They are not the one exporting themselves. If they are a number of them and their kids arrive back as 501s. Country is being held to ransom by debt speculators.
Without changes to our current immigration settings, I don't see the balance of new arrivals being tipped in favour of higher-skilled workers.
Our residence point systems disproportionately rewards ex-international students over high-paid workers with genuine skills.
There may be not. New Zealand's infrastructure is so far behind. We have water crisis, housing crisis, education crisis, health care crisis, more serious crimes are happening all over the country, economy is heavily rely on housing market, productivity is dropping etc. Not trying to be negative here, but these are the issues we are facing right now and these will impact on future immigration.
That's all true but that's been the case for a while and so far has only affected the quality of migrants, not the quantity.
Over the last few decades, our influx numbers are dominated by economic refugees from countries where those issues that you pointed out are a lot worse; and this lot won't be eligible to migrate to higher-wage destinations such as the US, UK or Oz.
But we don't want low quality migration, do we? Based on New Zealand's high cost of living, I don't think businesses are willing to pay 60K to 70K a year for taxi drivers, retail staffs and bus drivers.
For about the same period of time as the housing crisis? The housing crisis has been there for a couple of decades. National called it a crisis back before the GFC, and it was there well before then.
Promises, promises. Hopefully a million or so leave Auckland for Oz so we can start driving again. 2 hours to travel 5 kms on the bus this morning.
HeavyG wants his Elysium that he can enjoy with the rest of the central bank protected elite.
I often muse at the landlord cocktail evening that jumping on the ferry from downtown Auckland to Devonport does feel like flying up to Elysium.
Would have saved an hour by getting off and walking. Or much more if using an ebike instead.
Yes for many individuals this is the best solution / life hack available.
Way to long for a headline
Glass is half empty or half full.
Fact is that housing market is still active and hot and in reality, stuff headline is true for FHB but technically interest headline is also correct by itself though not reflecting the entire picture but Reserve Bank Governor will go with it.
Anything to avoid stopping speculators from getting their hand on interest only loan. Fact is that interest only loan should be a tool to be used only for emergencies and not to but new house as it gives an edge to speculator by multiplying their purchasing power over FHB and also many are able to speculate only because of interest only tool - any percentage of containment of speculative demand should be welcomed and tried.
Jacinda Arden tax change was based on premise of being fair ( remove undue advantage to Investors) based on that should interest only loan not be removed as soon as.....banning interest only loan to investor should have been on top of the list -A missile to target speculative demand and Jacinda Arden is still searching for Silver Bullet.
Stop IO loan irrespective of ponzi or no ponzi as should have been done much before but still better late than never Mr Orr.
Yep, from within the article above...
And April's sales were at still their highest level for that month in five years, suggesting the market remains relatively buoyant.
#Headline not helpful..
Auckland house prices prove remarkably resilient.
TTP
Profound.
Just another 2 years with 1.8 monthly falls then and we might be all right.
Breaking News : Mr Orr got the data / excuse that he was waiting for.
Sick leave cancelled.
Over a paltry 1.8% 'fall'? It's margin of error stuff!!
On the ground its slowing - phone calls from agents from open homes. Factor in flat rents in Auckland and increased supply coming on stream from new builds...crikey I may even consider staying another year?
Don't bother, NZ's finished.
... we can't be finished ... we've not started yet ... still awaiting the working group's report ... shovel ready !
Shovelling shit.
uphill with a garden rake in torrential rain
Auckland HPI up 24% YoY.
But we have no idea how low interest rates might have affected inequality.
Lowered interest rates don't increase inequality apparently...
Didn't you know that people with 10+ houses going up in value from lowered interest rates also have "some" money in the bank returning them less cash.
Clearly interest rates are neutral at best.... Orr some other positive spin the man himself can think up.
Beginning of the correction certainly with investment properties post Robbos tax changes and the spectre of increasing interest rates.
Na, it's called winter, no correction
HPI is seasonally adjusted?
... if the falls gather momentum across the next few months , expect Robbo to introduce a " property price freeze " across the entire real estate industry ...
I mean you have to Think Big
In order for a correction to occur the foundations which the bubble is built on have to give way. I don't see that in the near future, assuming inflation doesn't take hold.
This is the most informed comment I have read on here today.
Very few negative signs in the HPI summary table, A few parts of Auckland down <1%, Hamilton down 1.8%, and Lower Hutt down 2.3%, everything else flat or up. Not really showing a pullback of any significance (yet).
Bay of Plenty is also misleading. Tauranga up by 3.3% over the month but declines everywhere else. Still plenty of median price increases across the country.
1.8% is absolutely nothing when the prices are astronomical. It's just a rounding error. Prices of 2 bedroom units are changing hands for the same price you used to get a farm for,
The breathless reporting around price drops and 'cooling' is ridiculous. Wake me up when we see a 25% fall, and even then it will still have a way to drop.
100 % ago , Bernard Hickey predicted a 30 % fall ... 1.8 % ? ... pah ! ... a blip .... real men aim for the big bold figures .... if it falls 50 % from here , wake me up .... only then will we be back in the " affordable " zone ...
Had your flu jab yet Gummy? As you called Covid just the flu I assume no extra jab for you then on your trip to India?
... if this useless government stop lying , and start actually getting vaccines into the country , I'll wait my turn at the end of the far queue ...
Thought so . keep us posted from your Gummy Land fortress of real men
... I ain't 'fraid of no flu : " Germ Busters ! " ...
What ever happened to Skudiv, who reckoned that nothing ever changes and Covid would be done and dusted in a couple of months, everything back to normal?
I think he got banned from here? The account page comes up with a 404.
“ if it falls 50 % from here , wake me up .... only then will we be back in the " affordable " zone ...”
Stole the words right out of my mouth.
Market taking its usual break which is a good thing finally. Will take off again from here next round.
It's not taking a so called break its the reversal or unwinding (deflating if you will) of a bubble and bubbles only do one thing eventually. Remedial science for seven year olds.
I don't know about you guys, but I've got my eyes on this gem down at the far end of the north-western motorway.
https://westhills.co.nz/homes-for-sale/390-lot-154-42-westgate-drive-ex…
At a squeak under million dollars it's an absolute steal. Winter heating wont be an issue with the cosy neighbours and the high voltage lines passing overhead. Spacious backyard with a 126 sqm plot and Massey is such a vibrant and diverse suburb that oozes with culture.
Tony Alexander says that now is the time for first time buyers to strike, so I'm not going to hesitate or delay mortgaging the rest of life away for this sliver of paradise.
The good people at Universal Homes (97% owned by the genocidal Chinese government) assure me that their construction quality is second to none. I am going to be the absolute envy of my peers. This is what getting ahead looks like in a boomer's paradise. Lets's do this!
Good to see they are future proofing homes though.....according to the layout this one comes with a portal!
126 sqm plot in a terraced housing complex? I am a bit dim but does this not relate to the actual apartment?
The land area is 110sqm . However its a special home because it comes with a standalone carport.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AspPXte2yaY
When they say on the advert that its "ticking all the boxes" are they referring to the appearance of the houses. To paraphrase a song: Little boxes, little boxes they are all made of ticky tacky and they all look the same. Why would anyone in their right mind part with nearly $1 million dollars and saddle themselves with 25-30 years of debt for that.
"Nest or invest"
Haha, nice satire.
Nothing screams 'Housing bubble' better than this nonsense
So many sarcastic and negative comments. Come on guys, there is a good chance this place has motorway views!
One last shot at the stability, dignity and security you and your family deserve before it becomes unaffordable forever!
" the fact we have the lowest level of inventory for an April month since records began." Inventory and importantly the flow will provide insight in the coming months .
don't worry about inventory. there is a tidal of listings coming soon. several of my investor mates have admitted they will be selling at least 1 of there rentals to make the numbers work following that tax changes.
Great anecdote, several of your mates , and they are "investors' are selling at least one , but maybe more of their rentals cannot now make the numbers work., although they have not done so at this point. At this point inventory (listings) since the tax announcements are lower
It makes sense, you sell the one or two that aren't subject to brightline test, and need significant work for Healthy Homes to some FOMOed up FHB or developer, and reduce the debt on the rest of the portfolio to go cashflow positive (or significantly closer to it) once the interest non-deductability kicks in.
So the one you are selling is older and nastier, so below median for the area, and you keep the low maintenance newer houses. If enough do that, then the median sales price will drop because most of the sales are lower quality shiteboxes, but the HPI which supposedly accounts for the quality/type of properties being sold won't drop.
Loss of interest deductions for most investors applies over 4 years with the first 25% reduction kicking in October. Unlikely a whole bunch of fire sales would kick in now by over leveraged investors.
If you are going to panic, panic first.
Why this false rhetoric every time floated?
This lead to removal for LVR, lowering the interest rate & IO loans to save the housing economy.
This is a good start - 1.8% decline in a month. Now this needs to continue for the next couple of years or so.
For the next decade!
So much of anger can be felt in comments on RBNZ article yesterday :
https://www.interest.co.nz/news/110370/rbnz-concludes-based-inconclusiv…
Any normal person would act but power corrupts so more the push to do the right thing will hurt his inflated ego and will retaliate like a spoilt brat, so do not expect RBNZ to do anything or act on ponzi.
Full Stop.
Imagine what the anger will be on 26th May, when he does nothing as many are still hopefully that better sense will prevail and will act as his inaction now are leading to social conflict and who knows can take a dangerous turn for all in power.
Maybe that is the only way to reset.
Yep. nothing to see on 26th May, will be BAU. He will be waiting for the FED to make first move
Sharemarkets react much quicker than property. Just saying.
True - but I can sell my shares in 2 seconds for $25 fee...just saying. Xero reports today ..hopefully gains of 40% will keep climbing?
Gee if you look at the chart of Wellington's price rises its pretty crazy stuff! More than doubled in price in 5 years....
Jan 16 median price $394,000
Feb 21 median price $894,000
That is bonkers....completely bonkers.
I don't think somebody even giving me that much money in cash would convince me that living in Wellington is a good life choice.
As someone with Family in Wellington there is certainly a Stockholm syndrome affect going on, getting dressed in survival gear to empty the mail-box (hopefully quick enough to catch the contents before the gales throw them gleefully into the perma-puddles) is not enough to shake the "can't beat Wellington on a good day" mania. I used to describe living there as being like living in the Outer Hebrides but with good coffee.
Never got the attraction of Wellington personally. But still people more people seeking a decent place to live there and can't find it.
Government and jobs . I could never justify paying such a large amount for a home in Wellington because of the earthquake risk and being well overdue for a big one, and I hate earthquakes. It has a far few of them. Then parts may have problems with rising sea levels. But you can't beat it on a good day.
Sea level rises only a temporary issue until the next earthquake raises the land a few metres!
"Come oooon M8.2 quake! Daddy needs a new back yard!" *rolls dice*
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/12511557…
Best April in last 5 years and also the expert mentions that many buyers are in Wait and Watch mode. This may be correct as many are still hopeful that almighty Orr may act just like he did to boost the ponzi but will he ???
The trend towards urban building intensification, is going to push up land prices. Especially if you're already sitting on 500plus m2.
Urban intensification is also expensive, as existing services likely need upgrading to cope with the extra people. eg extra water and sewage lines etc. But new property developments on the fringes can take years to get resource consent and titles, and then another year to get a house built on it. Crazy, and no wonder things in NZ are so expensive.
Slow going at North Harbour auctions this morning 3 sold out of 12. Those selling seem to go right on the Homes.nz estimate so no premium. Auctioneer has mentioned banks tightening credit requirements twice during the auction so far and saying buyers are struggling to get approvals prior to auction. Could be interesting if the easy money is drying up.
This month especially, the median price is a bad indicator because much fewer houses have been purchased at the lower price bracket by investors. The only reliable measure is the HPI. It takes a bit of reading through the REINZ report to find the monthly and 3-monthly HPI difference but here they are:
…………………….1 month….3 months….12 months
NZ……………………0.6%……..8.7%……...26.8%
NZ excl Auckland….1.2%……..8.4%………28.6%
Auckland…………...-0.2%……..8.9%……...24.5%
So in conclusion, there has been a very significant slowing, close to a stop, in price rises in April
Yes it's true that you do need to have some wider context when looking at median prices because of composition, but REINZ is not very forthcoming about their actual HPI methodology. Some other high profile outfits I have been involved with have very questionable approaches. Not naming names or tarring REINZ with the same brush necessarily but we don't know how the numbers are being crunched.
What is known, however, is that this happens generally every April. Go back over the past 5 years and the moderation in prices this year from March to April is the tamest for the past 5 years. The moderation in sales volumes is also more or less in keeping with the April month every year over the past 5.
I'm quite sure the market will cool over winter but there is no sign yet of a panic or a dramatic correction.
Fully agreed!
The sh*t wont hit the fan overnight.
Sales always dry up before prices.
It takes a while for vendors to realise their rotting heap isn't going to command what they think.
Agreed Brock. (with the idea that the market doesn't turn overnight, not with your language)
That's very kind of you Yvil.
Auckland City down 5% in April $1.329 M from March $1.389 M, possibly just a monthly blip
From an investment perspective I expect the next few months will be quieter, not just due to seasonal factors, but due to border closures taking some pressure off the market generally. It appears ImmigrationNZ are still approving a substantial number of applications so we'll have to wait equilibration as borders reopen. Any major fall and I expect RBNZ would step in to protect homeowners. Also helping support prices of existing dwellings is the soaring cost of building materials.
Inflation constraining RBNZ is a worry but that's more long-term. The biggest threat to house prices I see soon is this RMA refresh, if government open up land for development section prices (and, by extension, house prices) we could see a significant reset in the property market.
Speaking personally I get the general impression government won't make major changes to the RMA as the current government is largely protecting the status quo and underlying trends in New Zealand. The government tend to act very conservatively, avoiding evolutionary or revolutionary policy.
"Any major fall and I expect RBNZ would step in to protect homeowners."
Nah. They would have to do the work to figure out the effects for 6 months, then consult for another 9 months then give another 6 months notice of the changes.
I don't see why RBNZ or the banks should bother to try and help if the market falls. People should only borrow what they can afford. All investments can go down as well as up. People are very happy to take the tax free gains on the way up, they should also take the hit when the market falls. Does Mr Orr own any investment properties? Would he or others in similar positions have to declare if they sell property prior to a policy change? It would be very easy for those in power to do a bit of insider trading. I am not suggesting anything improper is going on, just asking what rules are in place.
The RBNZ won’t step in, Mr Orr said last month property wasn’t a one way bet. To me, this signals with any price drops, there’ll be no intervention. I suppose it depends how bad it may get.
This would be true, if the housing ponzi wasn't the main 'pillar' of the NZ economy. Interest rates go up -> house prices stagnate (or go down) -> Economy / inflation goes down -> interest rates go down again.
"Nah. They would have to do the work to figure out the effects for 6 months, then consult for another 9 months then give another 6 months notice of the changes."
That's their approach when prices are skyrocketing.
The slightest hint they might go the other way they will act. Last year when it looked like Covid might hit prices they dropped the LVRs quicker than they could spell them. When it turned out that was the wrong move they waited until this month to do anything about it.
Of course they should let the market rebalance but I long ago lost faith in them doing the right thing.
Exactly. Of course they will intervene if the housing market starts to crash. Orr is talking a load of garbage, as usual.
"We will reform the RMA" is a sideshow. The RMA does not prevent councils from supplying additional land. Even if the RMA is reformed or replaced, the authority of councils to determine what development happens where will be retained. In other words it will all be a gigantic waste of time.
Regardless, it's very questionable to me whether endless suburban development is a good idea, particularly in Auckland. We need our green belt for silly things like food and water.
For prices really to become affordable, Auckland is going to have to grow upwards, like it or not.
What is this snippet based on?: "It appears ImmigrationNZ are still approving a substantial number of applications"
Based on the data ImmigrationNZ publish about new Visa and Residency approvals here:
https://www.immigration.govt.nz/about-us/research-and-statistics/statis…
It's nothing guys don't worry about it...
ROLL UP! ROLL UP! Get your 2-bed-1-bath, 72sqm mansion on its very own freehold 65sqm (not a typo) section with FREE 12sqm car park that will fit your double cab ute as long as you climb out the windscreen! Live cheek-by-jowl with 30 other couples and families, just don't get jealous of those who snapped up the huge 144sqm (again, not a typo) sections! From only $769K, just a few tens of thousands above your FHB cap! ROOOOLLL UP!!
Nothing wrong with terraced housing as long as it is built to a decent quality level.
Yes, but do you feel these properties are built to a quality level of $10,000/sqm? Having renovated/rebuilt a number of properties over the past 20-odd years I see nothing in the images that suggests that level of fit-out including allowing for tricky infrastructure issues. Even at consumer pricing for materials and labour these aren't likely to have cost anywhere near that amount. I understand the desire to make a profit but this just seems like price gouging.
And yet I know they'll all be snapped up in a heartbeat. Excuse me, I have to go shout at the tide now.
To be honest I have no clue about the quality of that development. Wouldn't be surprised if you're right.
I do like the general concept though.
As we do not have April 2020 as a valid comparison, best to use either 2019 or 2015.
2015 was last relevant boom.
yes prices still rising strongly in Auckland but sales mania is over, and was a few months ago.
To see this, need to look at the usual seasonal variation in sales.
Oct-Dec 2014 v Jan-Mar 15 showed a 6% drop in sales
Oct-Dec 20 v jan-Mar 21 showed a 16.8% drop in sales.
OCt-Dec 2020 sales in Auckland were 33.6% above those from 2014 for same 3m
Jan-Mar 2021 were only 18.6% above 2015 for same 3m
Trend is shown here also:
November 2014 v 2020 sales up 34% in Auckland
March 15 v March 2021: sales up 11%
April 15 v April 21 , sales - 3.6%
Again, should always bear in mind that interest rates are far lower than in 2014-15 and stock is quite a lot higher, due to rise in consents. So, sales as a % of stock not as impressive as when fail to take this into account.
A lot of future demand has been pulled forward into the July 2020 - March 2021 period due to lowering of LVR and rates. That demand from buyers and sellers, is now on wane, and those sales will not be needed to same degree in future period. So, we would logically expect sales to fall further from here, back to the 5 year average.
As most commentators have averred, prices should also moderate (as in the rate of increase ) so that the increase is virtually nil by October 2021, year on year
When you business model depends on holding with no cashflow and getting capital gains only. What happens when prices don't increase. Or decline.
The Ponzi scheme relies on those 'capital gains only' returns. It needs a constant stream of new bag-holders at the bottom so the ones at the top can cash out with their bags of loot. So for the Ponzi to continue they must have those gains. Otherwise it'll collapse.
Accurate. People who think this is just a blip are asleep and will get a rude awakening within the next few years. It"s the time to get serious about the market and your investments.
Propcoin.
Anyone want to swap their cryptos for a House....Must be guaranteed to rise for next 20 years, otherwise you will have to return ownership of property to me, so I can pay Bank back. Only 95% mortgage on Property. Or will accept cash, in full, if anyone has any left under the Mattress.
Totally, house has now risen 20% in last week...alone.
PS, I think I must declare an interest in Real Estate. I am an Agent with a days experience. How are you with your Cryptos.
The sky is falling! Once Orr has recovered from man flu he will be action man like he was March 2020 when he did an emergency OCR slash and lifted LVR restriction at the same time without any watch and wait
There are numerous properties for sale in the stretch of Dominion Road in Auckland from the balmoral rd intersection leading up to the motorway exit. Could be investors trying to make hay? Might be good fhb options and eventually trade up as more apartments and commercial stores come to main thoroughfares.
Hmmm. This is a pointless contribution, more just an observation of a recent increase in for sale signs.
Well done the red team don't stop now you are doing a great job for all our young people
6 years to get from a $400k median up to $600k... then 1ish year to then make it to $800k, and you would expect the next 200k from from 600k to be even harder? Someone is failing us all...
I look at bitcoin as a leading indicator. This is from a few weeks ago but you should always keep your eye on it. Obviously like our RE Market it is extremely bubbly.
Bitcoin is down a staggering 13% in the past 24 hours, dropping from around $57,000 per coin to around $49,600. So what’s driving the drop?
This could be a chunk of it:
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/elon-musk-backtracks-says-tesla-…
Elon is God
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.