Auckland's housing market started the year on a strong note with a surge of sales in January.
The Real Estate Institute of NZ says 1295 properties were sold in Auckland in January, up +9.7% compared to January last year and the highest number of sales in the month of January since 2016.
Within the Auckland region sales were particularly strong on the North Shore, up +29.0%, in Waitakere up +28.6% and Rodney up +21.1%
Around the rest of the country excluding Auckland 3308 properties were sold in January, up +0.9% compared to January last year. This was also the highest level of sales for the month of January since 2016, with 10 of the country's 16 regions posting higher sales levels than a year ago.
Regions with particularly high sales levels compared to January last year were Nelson +42.6%, Manawatu/Whanganui +15.3%, Bay of Plenty +11.5% and Marlborough +11.3%.
However there were also some regions where there was a significant decline in sales compared to a year ago led by Tasman -29.3%, Southland -27.2% and Otago -17.1% (the interactive chart below plots the monthly sales trends in all regions).
Prices remained firm and mostly at the top end of recent ranges, with the national median selling price dropping back to $615,000 in January from $629,000 in December, but that was still up 11.8% compared to January last year.
In Auckland the median dropped back to $875,000 in January from $890,000 in December and remained below the record of $900,000 set in March 2017.
However record median prices were set in seven regions in January - Waikato $599,000, Bay of Plenty $683,000, Hawke's Bay $550,000, Manawatu/Whanganui $411,000, Taranaki $420,000, Otago $570,000 and Southland $359,000.
Canterbury's median price of $465,000 equalled the record set in October last year.
Going against the trend there was a particularly large drop in Wellington's median price, which declined from $684,000 in December to $620,000 in January.
Other regions to record declines in the median price in January compared to December were Northland, Gisborne, Tasman and Nelson (see the interactive chart below which tracks median prices in all regions).
The comment stream on this story is now closed.
Median price - REINZ
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Median house price growth
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Volumes sold - REINZ
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131 Comments
I see HPI for New Zealand is up 7% - a figure that has a familiar ring to it.
It will be embarrassing for many who rubbished Westpac last year to refer to the following link as an example when Westpac who - as early as May - were predicting 7% house price inflation for this year. A reality check for some regular ready to slag-off posters.
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/101179/westpac-economists-reiterate…
Today's headline is hardly surprising, given that the Auckland housing market was flat/slow through 2017-2019.
It's further evidence of the pick-up in the market, which first became evident 4-5 months ago.
The likelihood is that the market will continue to strengthen through 2020.......
But spruikers who yearn for mammoth increases in house prices are likely to be disheartened.
TTP
Hahaha, so now you are disheartened?
Hi Mrs The Point,
To set the record straight, I have never foreseen mammoth house price increases in 2020.
I think that is just stupid.
If you're going to comment here, say something honest.
TTP
Pick-up in the market??? Look at the volumes sold chart. Just look at it. Zoom out to, say, 2000-2020. Look. At. The. Chart. Now tell me where that pick-up is.
Auckland back to the same HPI as late 2016/early 2017. No improvement yet. It just recovered the dip from last year.
Thanks for the link Printer8, it was interesting reading posts from NZDan, rastus, Fritz, Courtjester and others ridiculing Westpac for their 7% house price growth forecast… which is spot on
How do you know it's 'spot on' after 1.5 of 12 months? It's maybe 'spot on' in terms of what you think will happen.
Prices in Auckland are still lower than their peak more than 3 years ago.
We have coronavirus, a drought, and an election this year.
I'd be extremely surprised if the increase is anywhere close to 7% this year.
Fritz
That sounds like "But . . . . but . . . but . . .", just like the possum in the headlights.
The HPI inflation is up 7% so be surprised!!!! :)
Um, the prediction of 7%, which I contested, was for 2020.
This data is for the 12 months to January 2020.
I never, ever, argued that price rises over NZ were not significant in 2019.
How can anyone call Westpac's prediction for 2020 'spot on' after one month's data?
Fritz, a bit disappointing that you're stooping to CJ099's level, a simple "OK I admit I was wrong and Westpac was spot on" would make you look so much better. You're better than that
You really aren't that smart are you?
He just likes to put words in other people's mouth so that he can be always right.
Resorting to personal insults is never a winner Fritz.
You and I both know that if we were to use our prediction accuracy as measure of smartness I'd be miles ahead
JUST SO IT IS 100% CLEAR YVIL, AND YOU UNDERSTAND. AND SO YOU DON'T KEEP MISQUOTING ME AND OTHERS.
WESTPAC SAID LAST AUGUST PRICES WILL GO UP 7% IN 2020.
RIGHT NOW, IT IS FEBRUARY 2020.
PRICES WENT UP 7% IN THE YEAR TO JANUARY 2020. THEY HAVE NOT GONE UP 7% IN 2020 - BECAUSE WE ARE ONLY IN FEBRUARY.
I DISAGREE THAT THEY WILL GO UP 7% IN 2020. BUT WE WILL NOT KNOW UNTIL JANUARY 2021.
IS THIS CLEAR YET? DO YOU UNDERSTAND NOW?
AND SO WILL YOU STOP PUTTING WORDS IN MY MOUTH?
Fritz
They first said it in May 2019.
Doesn't matter if they said it in May or August, the prediction was for 2020.
Do you see my point or not?
If not, why not.
Too late for the 7% Fritz, Westpac are now predicting 10% (full article on Interest today)
"In Westpac's latest Home Truths publication, Stephens is now forecasting house price inflation of 10% by the middle of this year.
Last year Westpac put itself out on a limb by predicting that New Zealand house price inflation would reach 7% in 2020. But its prediction of a sharp upturn in the market has come good
Also, I quote, (not my words):
"And the hot start to the year the housing market has made means that 7% pick has already been achieved"
Fritz
"WESTPAC SAID LAST AUGUST PRICES WILL GO UP 7% IN 2020" and "THEY HAVE NOT GONE UP 7% IN 2020 - BECAUSE WE ARE ONLY IN FEBRUARY", (your use of capitals); "YOUR ARE WRONG, WRONG, WRONG" (my use of capitals).
Please read the next interest.co.nz article (posted 11.48am); you will see the context in which they make such comments. Even interest.co.nz acknowledge that they have got that right. "Last year Westpac put itself out on a limb by predicting that New Zealand house price inflation would reach 7% in 2020. But its prediction of a sharp upturn in the market has come good."
Their original comment was "We now expect house price inflation to accelerate to 7% by mid-2020, due to the recent sharp drop in interest rates". Note that they are talking about an increase in rate to 7% "by" mid-2020 - so ahead of their prediction. Never said for the whole of 2020 - you are "wrong, wrong, wrong" and desperately clutching at straws.
Read the article posted May of last year: https://www.interest.co.nz/property/99631/westpac-economists-expect-res….
Yes they got the OCR prediction wrong but consistently stood by their 7% claim on a number of occasions.
I'm calling total bullshit on that.
In August they stated:
'...so we are sticking to our forecast of 7% house price inflation next year'
Any person would read the common sense meaning of that as being 7% growth across the calendar year ie. from 1 January 2020 to 1 January 2021.
To now claim their prediction is correct by saying there was 7% growth between January 2019 and January 2020?? Not buying it.
It's a total crock.
But then as others have said I'm wasting my time and energy trying to talk logically with morons. I should stick to my new years resolution of not commenting on housing specific threads.
You could have saved yourself so much grief by simply admitting "Yes, Westpac's forecast was right" and also make yourself look like a good, honest guy...
Hi Yvil,
Remember that the DGM are neither ethical nor smart.
Don' t expect too much from them.
TTP
Frtiz
"Do you see my point or not?" No, Fritz.
Maybe it is because you misquote Westpac.
In May 2019 Westpac said the rate (note "the rate") of inflation will be up to 7% by mid-2020. They never ever, ever - yes; never ever, ever - said that over the calendar year prices would increase by 7%.
What they did say was that the rate of house prices would rise to 7% in 2020.
Please read the May article.
It's pointless, Fritz. All he's gonna see is "up", "7%", "2020"
Indeed, I wonder why??? Oh, because it's correct, as in true, right the opposite of incorrect, false, wrong...
Fritz, you are right.People who suffer from cognitive bias will ostritch-like always look for stuff that is in alignment with their views, never mind if it is out of tandem with reality.Waste of time really replying to their comments.
jaf
I actually agree with you . . . except direct the comment at Fritz who based on facts is the one "who suffer's from cognitive bias will ostritch-like always look for stuff that is in alignment with their views, never mind if it is out of tandem with reality".
Read the May 2019 article
I predicted no OCR change in 2020, so my prediction came true! Pack up guys, party's over, I won!
Spot on Fritz. "Prices in Auckland are still lower than their peak more than 3 years ago". All we're seeing is people accepting more realistic sales prices after several years of a stagnating market, hence the increase in sales. Prices may increase slowly after that if mortgage interest keep falling to allow wage earners to borrow more.
Hi Fritz and CJ099, you dont have to respond to their comments. No point to debate. I am pretty sure that they are trying to pick a fight to stir up the topic. If you pay a bit attention to their commenting actitivities, they rarely post anything under the topic about economy and other investiments. At this stage, you probably know who they are already...
Yes, quite wise and right.
The word 'troll' springs to mind.
Fritz you should be happy with this news now that you're a property owning householder rather than renter ... that is unless you told some big fat lies about buying a house. You are secretly a renter and still hoping to find the right box but everything keeps going UP.
I was going to say thats a new low for you.. but no, really it isn't.
Not everyone is blinded by greed, some see a house as a home, and don't see screwing others with rising house prices as a good outcome.
That is really profound lol keep up the potsmoking. The trouble is he was not discussing the merits of the increase but that it failed to meet the forecast.
Yes agreed CH and thanks, we'll let them chase their own tails over this one. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I purposely don't comment much on other topics because I like to stick to topics I know well, which is property in NZ. I have been an Architect with my own business for 18 years and I have owned both residential and commercial properties for 25 years and I still do. Therefore I also know mortgages which I regularly comment on. I wish more commenters would post on issues they have vast experience in, instead of treating Interest's comment section, as an opinions column
Westpac are doubling down:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…
Yes, however my comment was ridiculing how contradictory their prediction was. "We're confident but there's no evidence so don't give us shit if we're wrong". Hey good on them though for taking a wild guess and getting it right.
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/101179/westpac-economists-reiterate…
Embarrassing to us, or embarrassing to the people in power who made this happen? Just a few more incentives here and there to keep the party going, gotta be real good for the economy!
I'm not worried though. Prices in AKL still below the peak (which was 2 and a half years ago!). Black swan events doing their job of fixing what politicians couldn't (and bankers don't want to).
By the way, I predicted no OCR changes for 2020. No OCR changes so far, so my prediction was right! Now that we're jumping into conclusions based on a single month's results...
"It will be embarrassing for many who rubbished Westpac last year" Printer8 was quite clear
"I wish more commenters would post on issues they have vast experience in, instead of treating Interest's comment section, as an opinions column"
Thank you
REINZ must have it wrong, CJ099's repeatedly posted that sales were abysmal in January especially in Auckland.
Hi Yvil,
CJ099 is Patron-Saint of a rare and dying societal group known as the "DGM". They suffer from terminal doom and gloom.
There is no known cure for this condition, though medical scientists are taking on the challenge......
TTP
LOL Well we're certainly not seeing it in the auction results, and haven't you just contradicted yourself TTP in your above comment "But spruikers who yearn for mammoth increases in house prices are likely to be disheartened". Quote from TTP in this article.
And I certainly won't break out the champers just yet until Auckland's prices rise fully above their 2017 levels. What we're really seeing is people selling at a more realistic price, that will naturally increase "sales" not necessarily prices just yet.
Hi CJ099,
See my response above to Mrs The Point.
It applies to you, as well.
We would appreciate if, in future, you were honest.
TTP
TTP clearly you don't even understand what honesty means. You're really just out there to try to get people to bite with you irrational behavior to provoke them as other commenters have pointed out even in this article.
Is this the kind of 'sophisticated debate' you wanted to see on this website?
Yavil you're getting over excited again these are just sales not house price increase. If you drop a property price to more affordable levels then it will sell. You could also think of it this way; If property is selling well then banks will not need to lower their mortgage rates further until the market stalls again (So no price increases for you).
Adrian Orr must be frothing with glee at the further inequality he is entrenching.
Inequality?
So we think that everyone should have the same wealth, even though many don’t do anything to achieve this?
Communism is the word that comes to mind, and we all know that doesn’t work and we wouldn’t want to live in that environment anyway!
"even though many don’t do anything to achieve this?"
I submit to you that most current homeowners also haven't done anything to achieve this - the increase in "wealth" they currently enjoy is a result of present monetary policy, immigration and local/central regulation.
My favourite part is when homeowners think they have earnt it.
Mine too, makes for some interesting and occasionally heated conversation over the barbecue.
Generational inequality you daft idiot.
Egalitarianism is dead and buried in New Zealand.
You'll have to excuse him, "he da man".
A bit of light reading for you from this morning on how lower interest rates increase housing wealth inequality, while higher rates do the opposite.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2020/pdf/rdp2020-02.pdf
No one thinks everyone should have the same wealth. However, the low interest environments mean the haves or generation that have had the time to build capital are more advantaged, making the gap much wider more quickly.
@the man 2 .....and I don't want to live in a "skewed" economy of "corporate/employer" welfare with WFF, because businesses can't pay a decent living wage ....or that other favourite, the accommodation supplement to top up landlords rents ! .......OK then, you don't want to live with communism, well as a PAYE taxpayer, I will stop my tax dollar going to line your and corporations/employers pockets ! ...and then we would have your beloved neo-liberal "free" market". You rave about beneficiaries etc with "snouts in the trough" and not "working" for it, but you are on the same page and no "better" than them.
The AS isnt necessarily going to landlords. Sometimes spent on toys for the tenants.
....no Houseworks, it goes to pay increased "non market driven rents" which then goes into your pocket ....which I would not mind in the slightest, if it wasn't MY TAX DOLLAR paying the AS ! ......that's why I couldn't care less how much a CEO of a private corporation gets paid ...it's not my money :)
It bothers me that our very own PM is one of the highest paid world leaders (if you can call her that). Though it would not bother me if we actually got some value for money rather than the crap performance day after day.
Yes that is why you should not vote for National the CCP party
Fascinating stuff with Auckland's HPI holding above 2900 for the 3rd consecutive month.
"The total number of homes for sale in January 2020 was down 21.6% nationally compared to January 2019 - ... Not one region in New Zealand saw an increase in the number of homes for sale in January 2020 when compared to the same month last year"
From the REINZ report
Hi Yvil,
That's because houses are prized possessions - and a reward for hard work and disciplined saving. House ownership is also a tangible measure of social status.
Because the prospects for the housing market remain as strong as ever, house owners are not inclined to sell - unless to upgrade to a better property.
Notably, these days very few people are selling property and transferring the money into bank deposits.
TTP
Im beginning to think Yvil and TTP are the same person. Donny and Marie ish.
Of course they are, its been obvious for some time
The bright-line rule has put significant downward pressure on the number of house sales.
Unintended consequences pushing the purchase price of housing up, who would have thought?
CoreLogic estimate for my home was 102.6% of 2017 CV as at 16/2/20. A very modest increase from late last year. I'm not sure extreme views on either side can crow about this market. Slow and steady as she goes. BTW It was 100% on 21/10/18 and 96.5% on 11/8/19.
To put the Volumes sold into perspective for AKLD
There have been 13 better Januarys this century
There have been 7 worse Januarys this century 3 of which were 09,10 & 11, post GFC
Right? And in the meantime, population has increased by... a couple hundred thousand?
The only remarkable aspect of this story, is the remarkable speed of the first reply .
yeah!
Some people are clearly obsessed!
The RBNZ and the senior bureaucrats and politicians will be most pleased to see the value of their houses have risen, just as they planned. Their Tribe is so very important and they are very clever, at least they think as much, so to them it is true.
Hi Roger,
Always good to hear from you.
Re the RBNZ, senior bureaucrats and politicians, many commoners are now applying the time-honoured wisdom: "If you can't beat them, join them".
TTP
I’m sure many an evil has been done with the rationalisation of that saying ttp.
The proposed amendments to the Residential Tenancies Act are going to seriously stuff up the rental market though. Can only hope there are common sense changes to the Bill through the legislative process, or a National/ACT government that ditches the changes all together. Otherwise things are going to get tough for tenants as well as landlords.
With this corona virus dragging on it will be "- " in front of the 7% PHI shortly
Another article on interest dot today is "Mercer's David Scobie says share markets across the world were buoyant in the past year and New Zealand equities topped the table with an exceptional 32% return" only has 2 comments. I think we're probably looking an indicator of what makes NZers excited and where all their eggs are stored.
Heard on radio news that wanganui is one of the areas to watch. Should have bought last year :(
Agree - W(h)anganui is good.......
But my money is still on Palmerston North. Despite some hefty rises in house prices, it's still relatively inexpensive to buy in PN. Further solid price rises are to be expected - especially in "old money" areas like Hokowhitu.
TTP
I prefer wonganui to fonganui and funganui. The in laws moved there in the 2000s, so there are a few nice quality properties in wanganui but I have never felt the urge to snap up a "bargain" so to speak. We will stick with H town and good on those who have taken a step on the property ladder this last year (including Fritz although he seems to have turned tail)
Paid ~450k for our new build. 1 year on, its now been valued at 600k
Sell sell - bugger no then you would have to pay an "unfair" tax on that great gain. So unfair - it should be free money for your clever and hard work buying the property.
Sell then buy into the same inflated market? Sounds about as clever as your permaculture advice lol
You probably cannot pronounce this word "facetious"- but glad you are cracking yourself up.
Here are 5 Permaculture principles to help you start a garden
Catch and Store Energy – "Make hay while the sun shines" ...
Produce No Waste – "Waste not, want not" ...
Integrate Rather Than Segregate – "Many hands make light work" ...
Use Small and Slow Solutions – "Slow and steady wins the race"
Ignore Keyboard Kings who could not grow a weed
So by those principles, Sub-sahara Africa is the mecca of permaculture enthusiasts?
Having trouble to count to 5
In defence of Frazz, I now have a farm and I’m looking at introducing some permaculture practises to provide a bit of diversity, give the pasture more resilience to weather events we are currently experiencing and make better use of the resources we currently have. Permaculture doesn’t have to be some hippy buzzword as I think it may be seen now.
Is the farm your primary income or is it a hobby? Personally, I'd take the advice of someone who does it for a living over someone that has a hippy blog. Sure some of their ideas are great and are already in practice on some farms. It's the condescending nature towards conventional farmers that grinds my gears.
Congrats Withay, which area are you located. How many animals and what kind. I love being on a LSB
Frazzled
Your comment sounds very envious and bitter.
Youngdumbandbroke made a great decision to go ahead and buy last year; he owns his (hers?) own home, has financial and intrinsic security for his family and he has increase his equity by $150k . . . but you can only be bitter about this.
I probably can’t fully appreciated the frustration that many first home buyers have, but at least I recognise that they exist.
It is about time some commentators stop making bitter unsubstantiated comments about the housing market and start to look at the reality of what it is doing and what are the implications.
During the winter last year I noted numerous drivers in the Auckland market which suggested that the market was bottoming and that FHB should act. This was countered by unsustained claims of bubble burst possibly fuelled by frustration, bitterness and anger.
Clearly dumbandbroke consider the variety of personal and market considerations and made a sound decision - so good on him.
Yes, there are some including myself who feel vindicated, but if we are to have meaningful discussion then there are a number of posters who need to acknowledge that their dire predictions didn’t eventuate and start to move on. Their postings today are more about denial rather than being insightful.
The debate should now be focussed on where the market is headed in the next year. There are a number of market drivers that have recently changed - immigration numbers including level of emigration, global headwinds, scaling down of trade wars, election year in both US and NZ, Brexit more certain, Convid-19 and implications for NZ trade and economy, possible RBNZ action in terms of LVRs and OCR, overvaluation of properties to income, housing supply etc, etc - and the impact of these on the housing market.
Embedded views highly influenced by frustration and bitterness don’t lend themselves to meaningful discussion and productive decision making.
Facepalm not you as well - I brought in Palmy 2 years ago...geeez
Congrats, YDB
For me, the valuation doesnt mean that we have gained anything but more the fact that we havent paid more than its market value.
YDB
Firstly congratulations - you would have had to make a goal and commitment to achieving a home and that you have achieved.
However, you are not quite correct that you have not "gained anything".
Firstly you have gained financial and intrinsic security for you and your family in owning a home.
As I have posted numerous times, many of my generation of boomers have gained their financial security through home ownership and for this reason I am concerned that there is going to be increasing number of renting middle class poor - those who continue to pay off the landlord's mortgage and walk away with nothing. What you have gained is that you - and your family - will not be one of those renting middle class poor.
Some other considerations:
- You are correct, that you have not got cash in the hand to show for this increase, however your increase in equity is important. As time goes on, you will be able to use this equity to finance a car, a family holiday or in the more distant future, probably either a holiday or investment property. Talk to a bank manager and you will find that their attitude is a lot, lot different to when you were saving for your home.
- The reality is that your equity has increased considerably; as your mortgage is static, if you have a 20% equity in your home, an increase in even 5% value, will mean a 25% increase in your equity. Not a bad tax free return when property is considered a relatively safe and conservative investment.
- Wealth is not measure by money in the hand/bank; rather it is ones assets less debts and your net asset (your equity) has just got considerably a lot bigger. Those with wealth are not reliant on cash in hand, rather their ability to leverage through their equity.
So rather than not gaining anything, you have gained much.
If you look at it that way, I guess there is a sizeable gain. I don't intend on investment property at this stage. I'd rather continue to improve our debt to equity ratio by sitting tight for the meantime, which will give more flexibility for future endeavours whatever they may be.
YDB
"I'd rather continue to improve our debt to equity ratio by sitting tight for the meantime" shows that you are astute and have your head screwed on.
" . . give more flexibility for future endeavours whatever they may be . . . "; yes, you will have far more choices and financially secure than you would have if you were continuing to pay the landlord's mortgage off rather than yours.
Nah, don't borrow on your place. Be debt-free, have 100% equity. Then chill. I can highly recommend this.
You have gained $150k which you would not have if you didn't buy and kept renting
Correction - only a paper gain of $150k - sell and you can bank it (less tax) and then go and rent or buy again ..rinse and repeat. Or get a perm and some culture lol (cracking myself up)
Not true, he could spend 80% of his gained $150k if he wanted to (although it may not be wise)
And be in debt for $100K ..also you keep forgetting to pay the tax on the $150k ..why is that?
As I said, it may not be wise to do so, but he can do it if he wants to. Also there's no tax to pay on the $150k, you got that mixed up
Exactly. Rent is money down the drain. Owning a house provides security but also a placeholder of wealth
Great time to buy! Virus, drought, global economic data crashing everywhere. Just shows how freaken stupid many kiwi's are. Good luck chaps........you really have purchased at the worst time in housing history.
rastus
Envious and bitter???
Maybe just scared?
You are correct rastus, problem here is that most people are in the bar of the Titanic arguing about house prices and sales volumes with each other while the ship goes down.
Australian government is introducing CGT for family home for all expat living overseas from June and this new tax will be applied retrospectively. Perhaps the COL should follow their footsteps ending all those empty houses.
Wellington flatting out. Interesting to see that Porirua is more expensive than Wellington city - I never thought that would happen. City median price in Feb last year was 767k now it is 755k (for Jan).
I have not yet meet a single patients, that boasting their wealth..when consulting with us. Apparently this on going Wealth creation psyche is nothing to do when it comes to their Health condition. Most of them liked to portrayed as middle or low income during the consultation. Marvel eh?
So now you cannot blame "foreign buyers " , they are banned , who are you going to blame for the high demand and similarly high prices ?
I blame Dame Edna...
Aussies! But let's not forget the singaporeans
OCR cuts of course
Except aren't they are buying them through people already living here?
Hot off the press:
"Dominick Stephens, Westpac chief economist, today also revised his national house price forecast from up 7 per cent this year to up 10 per cent."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…
Meh. Stephens is the modern-day incarnation of the medieval soothsayer. The defining common element of this is the herd-like mentality of the audience.
Crystal ball stuff which the Westpac executive team take no notice of!
Sales in Auckland in last 3m are up 19% on same 3m a year ago.
In rest of NZ they are up 1.7%
Given how many consents are being granted, compared to 3 years ago (about 15,000 in Auckland in 2019) it is to be expected that sales would rise, otherwise, inventory would be rising fast. If we take stock in 2013 for Auckland as 525,000 and 60% of those as owned or on a mortgage, that implies that the total stock has risen by about 10,000 pa since 2013. Which means stock is up about 13%.
Sales are NOT up 13% of course, because property prices are up 75%.
Median price in Auckland remains below where it was in March 2017.
A lot of extra sales are due to a 40% rise in consents for townhouses since 2015.
These are priced mostly under $700k
Hence Papakura and WC sales are galloping ahead.
3m sales in Hibiscus Coast are only up 2% because the prices outside of Stanmore Bay are so high relative to North Rodney especially, whose sales are up 24% in last 3m
Given the Coronavirus impact on confidence, it is highly likely that sales and prices will be subdued or lower than 2019 sales and prices. Esp as Chinese immigration into NZ is 80% down on where it was 2 years ago.
Yes Mike you may be correct; "Median price in Auckland remains below where it was in March 2017".
But house prices are up considerably since 2012.
What is your point????????
V simple: stock up 13%
Sales down
Prices up 75%
Concl: fewer buyers because too expensive
Pop up 200k also
Wow some pretty sad comments on here. What is evident to me is that Kiwi's still have their heads in the sand with this Coronavirus. I suggest you guys read or listen to some other stuff being published, its not pretty. I don't think anyone even wants to talk about the possible effects this could have and more importantly it WILL have the longer the numbers infected continue to climb. We are now looking at the possibility of a serious crash if this gets out of control.
@Carlos67 ....nah mate according to Yvil, To The Point et al .... the housing "boom" is going on "ad infinitinum" !
I come on here to read their "positive" comments, as it shows in their truly infinite wisdom, about such matters, so there is "absolutely nothing to worry about" :)
So do you mean Coronavirus and its possible human and economic effects world wide, high household debt levels throughout the western world and China, house to income multiples at ridiculous levels, NZ wages out of kilter with the cost of living, global warming, climate change, rising sea levels, air pollution, plastics in the oceans, increasing economic inequality, trade war between USA and China etc etc
So many Kiwis truly have their "heads in the sand" and it will only be a real economic and/or human disaster that will change that mindset .....until then Yvil, To The Point etc and most of the general NZ population will be "spoon fed" the cutesy animal stories and "fluff" stories from the MSM ie granny herald (notice how anything that feeds this narrative is NOT on Premium Content ?) ...so yes, it is very sad, as I think so many people are not ready for what is over the horizon. And when something does happen, house prices are going to be the last thing on their minds !
I've been watching the numbers.. its still a non-event outside Asia. The number of cases of people that have been infected outside of China and the plague ship off Japan are still next to nothing. A few in Singapore, but pretty much everywhere else is still in single digits for locally transmitted cases.
Are we meant to celebrate?
Apparently banks decided to loosen lending criteria for FHB at same time (coincidentally) that RBNZ out extra requirements on them for equity. This happened in November.
Just about when sales took off.
In the last 3m in Auckland there have been 3469 residential sales
In the 3m of 2012-13 equivalent sales were 4702.
Only a 26% drop.
Meanwhile Auckland pop has risen 200k
Stock has rien 13%
Prices have risen 75%
Wages have risen 29%
Now, I wonder why sales have fallen??
Australian report today meanwhile says low interest rates make rich richer while higher rates help the lower "orders"
Also today, mortgage costs average down 10% and no CGT
At same time, rents up 10%
And inflation we are told is 2%.
A higher and higher % of people in Auckland are renting and cannot afford to buy.
Which is great for those who already own and most of whom probably rent out 1 or more properties at $500 a week plus to people who are shelling out 40% of their net pay (minimum) on rent.
That sucking sound you can hear is the money going up the income scale month by month to w=those that hath.
Rentier-ship is not a good thing for an economy.
The top 25% can leverage up on cheap credit and buy up 40% of what is built for further rentals.
And so it goes on.
What do they expect when they keep reducing interest rates? Many people who had money in the bank are now desperate to put that money into housing to benefit from capital gains and preserve the buying power of their money.
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