Winter has well and truly taken hold in auction rooms, with interest.co.nz monitoring just 139 auctions around the country last week (3-9 June).
A notable feature of the auctions monitored last week was that just over three quarters of them (77%) were in Auckland.
Auckland traditionally dominates auction activity but it appears many provincial agencies have cut back their auctions from weekly to fortnightly as the number of homes being marketed for sale by auction dwindle.
However, sales rates and prices appear to be remaining broadly where they have been for the last few months.
Of the 139 auction properties monitored, 44 were sold under the hammer, three were sold in post auction negotiations and five were sold prior to the auction, giving an overall sales rate of 37%.
Of the remainder, 86 were passed in and one property had its auction date postponed.
The properties that sold were almost exactly evenly divided between those that sold for more than their Rating Valuation and those that sold for less.
The overall sales rate in Auckland was similar to the national rate at 34%, with selling prices also split down the middle between those that sold for more or less than their Rating Valuations.
Details of the individual properties and the results achieved at the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz are available on our Residential Auction Results page.
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52 Comments
Greg, how does this reducing volume compare to last year ? Are wee seeing a significant slow down in comparable auction volumes ? Many thanks, G.
You will get a better idea of the numbers compared to a year ago by looking at the monthly figures. The auctions we monitored in May were down 16% on May last year. Here's a link to that report.
Here is the Link to the corelogic report. Auckland New Listings offered initially by auction in 2015 were 72% (that’s corelogic not me). That has fallen to 14% in 2019. I’m not sure why the last thread was deleted but I will say again that the 2015-2016 period does appear to have been a bit of an auction frenzy/casino.
Why do some comments get deleted here while other anecdotal (non referenced) comments are allowed to stay?
http://images.insight.corelogic.com.au/Web/RpDataPtyLtd/%7B5c4a1143-de0…
I still totally doubt that data. The 72% looks believable for 2015, considering corelogics data was 64% for Auckland in 2014, so in a hot market it climbing to 72% doesn't seem unreasonable. (https://www.corelogic.co.nz/news/listing-method-preference-its-regional…), but 14% looks like sales by auction rather than initial listings.
Just checked the last 240 Auckland residential listings on Realestate.co.nz, and 122 of 240 had Auction as the sales method.. So a fraction over 50%. And Corelogic is saying 14%? Nah, does not compute, unless half the houses on the market are going private sale or through agencies that don't use realestate.co.nz.
Hi Pragmatist. There’s a lot of data that doesn’t compute, from stats NZ to the RBNZ ‘loan’ data. The REINZ figures, to QV to Corelogic. But this is their data and they claim to religiously track the market.
Well then, its not data it is noise, or it is valid data and you are misinterpreting it. Reminds me of a certain Nic Johnson getting all excited over the priority amounts on mortgages and making some err, 'interesting' claims on the basis on misinterpreted numbers.
Using Barfoots weekly auction data from this site , and looking at March/ April months ,and (using a one month lag )against Barfoots monthly "new listings" , over 40 percent of their new listings go to auction. That could mean that all other Auckland agencies have dispensed with auctions , new listings are not always "new".. The core logic graph was previously put up on this site by another commentator. Odd math on the video clip. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1dWj4JK4ZA
Todays REINZ data shows that the corelogic number is BS, 18% of Sales were by auction.. So more sales than listings? Nope, somebody at corelogic fudged the numbers.
Have no fear, the number will be back up soon. It's only a slight glitch in the matrix.
I'm not surprised auctions are falling out of favour. Based on my own experience just getting consideration for finance pre-approval is taking a couple of weeks. So auction is reducing the audience to just those buyers either ready to pounce or already cashed up.
Prices seem to be holding up, though. Anyone here have insights on the buyer base? A large number of the sales seem to be in that $1M to 1.5M range, which I wouldn't have thought would be greatly patronised by the first home buyer. So is credit loosening up again? Or are we still seeing a tail of pent-up demand?
Humm... I don't think that prices are holding up that well in especially in Auckland's more expensive areas. Looking at the latest auction results; take for instance one that recently sold at auction in Chatswood, Auckland. 89 Onetaunga Road, Chatswood. Sold for $1,620,000 and yet it's Rating Value was $2,300,000 (July '17). That's a big drop of -$680k. Yikes!
See now that the foreign buyers have gone, most residents can't afford that kind of money because they simply don't earn that amount. So prices will continue to tumble along with the mortgage rates.
Someone will be quick to point out its flaws......It's the forest green aluminium joinery.
Or the owner paid $630k in 1998 so has made a $900 per week return on the property so "one happy vendor".
Oh no, you beat Zachery to that last line. He'll have to come up with a new counter spin.
Its mono clad with no cavity and modest eves. It can be expected to sell for a sizable discount, in some cases more than the full cost of a reclad. I dont think they got cavities until about 2002 during the transitional changes to the new building code.
Ticking time bomb. Just a matter of time until water finds its way in. Mother nature has nothing but time on its hands. Might even be untreated timber.
Thats a crucial point you make, and probably why they can sell for discounts higher than the reclad. I think its almost certain a lot of the frame timber is only H1 and thus any leaks have a high likelihood of causing structural damage.
What year did they do away with Kiln Dried, and go back to Boron treatment?
Hi Market Interest. Your anecdotal evidence is incorrect.
Transaction volumes in Auckland during the first 5 months of 2019 compared to first 5 months of 2018 are 43% down in the market for homes above 2 million dollars. In the market between 1.2 million - 2 million dollars sales volumes are down 28%. That’s just data from REINZ that a fellow interest commentator has recently researched for us all.
JW, any stats for north of 2mm ? I realise this isn't a liquid market now but I'd be very interested to see just how much liquidity has reduced as its clear the FBB has hit the top end first and this is trickling down. Many thanks, G.
See above.
North of $2million sales volumes are 43% down this year over first 5 months. We have a massive liquidity gap building.
Thanks for that, I really need to learn to read ;)
Yep, monumental liquidity reduction in the works. The knock on effect on building trades, pools, decks, staging etc etc etc is going to be of a similarly epic scale. Then the real pain begins as we see real wage deflation in the building and construction sector, a glut of unsold new homes which were being planned and started during the boom. This isn't going to end well.
Yeah the signs are all there and have been for some time
Australia’s housing downturn is now the largest on record, but we’ll be diffrunt?
-8.2% weighted average nationally. Much more in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Darwin and in mining capitals, less in some other places.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australia-house-price-falls-record-d…
It's many moons since auctions were in favour in Auckland. And understandably so.
Plus, the winter slow-down in the housing market needs to be factored in.
TTP
Toothy ,your mooning again. Barfoots April 2019 report "Sale by auction remained the most common sales method, and across January and February two-thirds of all auctions resulted in sales – either under the hammer or by direct negotiation prior to or post auction."
June 2019 Barfoots report "Auctions remain the most efficient sales method. Although fewer sales are now being made under the hammer, this sales method creates higher profile for properties, and often leads to a negotiated sale, or creates an opportunity for those who are not in a position to make a non conditional offer to become involved."
Look at the evidence, Cowpat, my bovine friend. You're spending too much time with the broads in the milking shed......
There are far fewer Auckland houses marketed by auction now. The proportion has dropped dramatically.
In comparison, "By Negotiation" and marketing at a specific price have both become far more popular in recent times.
Not until the next property bull-run will we see a resurgence in auctions.
TTP
If you have figures for the success rates of the other methods of sale it would be good to compare to auction success rate. According to barfoot report, auctions are the most efficient method of sale.
I reckon it's the REAs who reap the efficiency gains from auctions. Since REAs tend to promote auctions, we can be sure they have easier $$$$$ to gain from them. (Remember that many REAs are both greedy and lazy.)
Better $$$$$ gains may well accrue to vendors by avoiding auctions - especially in a flat market.
Remember "didn't sell at auction" can soon turn into a major taint.
TTP
Your answer is vague and not directly to the point
Let me translate:
He does not have the figures, but auctions are a bad option in soft markets and smart sellers will list by negotiation and prepare to wait patiently.
Ha-ha-ha :)
Insightful comment RP, thanks for your great contribution
Hi Yvil,
Well, at least R-P didn't put his foot in it on this occasion......
He's accident-prone, to say the least.
TTP
Toothy, I have come from the shed, and I spoke with Bull. He said he has no intention of going for a run and that your talking Cowpat again.
yep well we are 14 days into winter so that'll be why......
@TTP "Not until the next property bull-run.." At the moment the property market is on the verge of death by a thousand cut.. but I could be wrong!
Yeah you may be wrong : if not thousand cut may be nine hundered and ninety nine cut...BUT...death is defenite......SO you are correct Chairman Moa.
Auctions-Sales rate 37 % .Those sold were evenly divided between above & below RV. Conclusion - Above RV only 18.5 %
HEADLINE : Only 18.5% propertres sold above RV and 18.5% Below RV and the rest still looking for buyers :)
When Checking Auction Result by Harcourt - 8th June - first house that was under sold in Manukau was Eastern Beach, 1/1 Aylmer Court Sold for 939000 and RV 1160000 (Wow 19% below CV) and of the 5 houses which were in Auction by Harcourt, only one went giving a success rate of 20% and even that was sold as the vendor had to and was ready to accept what the market has to offer.
This is how one present the data (If want to portray real picture and make many FHB be aware) though in reality also house market is getting worse from bad slowly.....
Now many RE Agent who have bought the listing by giving high appraisal will find it hard - though they have nothing to lose as marketing money is paid by the vendor and to know who those agents are just have look at number of listing those agents have and for how long.
That is not how you present data, that is how you cherry pick data.
Exactly, this is how data can be presented to suit individual bias.
Secondly this is not what you called cherry picking. Just picked entire Harcourt sale on 8th June in Manukau area and got the result.
Lies, damn lies & real estate statistics!
Correctomundo !
The headline gif should read "Unsold!"
Rest easy folks .....just relax and enjoy ...as per this "vested interest" article by ...you guessed it ...the enzud herald ..... https://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=12… .... all is peachy with a 7% increase due next year ....and by the gummints own bank ..."westie slack" ..... happy daze :)
Auctions are no longer the way to sell in Auckland but i think its being used to gauge market value and then it gets listed with a price. Still flogging auctions to death in Tauranga, a place were are interested in just got passed in today and is now going to be listed way over RV.
Interestingly we have a new IT staff member just came over from Papamoa. She told me that it took two months to sell their house and not much professional IT opportunities in Tauranga area, hence they came over to Brisbane.
I think that is glossed over with all the hype about the smaller centres. Get a downturn and there may not be much in the way of alternative employment
Come to Hamilton....seriously
Hamilton the next big thing: projects line up for city of the future | Stuff.co.nz
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/better-business/94722976/hamilton-the-…
I had a professional procurement specialist from Wellington, who had a gutsful of struggling, start work with me at Perth. He brought his wife two kids and dogs to start a new life. Him and his wife who were both working professionals were struggling so much, just to pay rent and make ends meet, he had to go hunting for meat. He couldnt believe how cheap things are here, comparatively, and like me is on the phone telling everyone to get themselves over here. The mining is about to boom, so get ready for the floodgates of Kiwis jumping the ditch...
Yep it's certainly becoming more affordable out there in Perth currently down -18% and Darwin has crashed to -27%.
Eastern Reporter article: Perth house prices down nearly $100,000 since peak
https://www.communitynews.com.au/eastern-reporter/real-estate/perth-hou…
Well once you take a look through the latest auction results, you can certainly tell that Auckland's more expensive price range is stagnating, so this is now leading to prices slipping which will be a continuing trend through to Spring and Summer. I think it's going to be a while before our property markets finally bottoms out. And there are some large price falls in the higher price brackets, here's some recent examples:-
* 53 Corunna Rd, Milford, Auckland. Down - $414 Sold for: $886,000, Rating Value: $1,300,000 (July '17)
* 89 Onetaunga Road, Chatswood, Auckland. Down - $680 Sold for: $1,620,000, Rating Value: $2,300,000
* 19 Kesteven Avenue, Glendowie, Auckland. Down - $475 Sold for: $1,400,000, Rating Value: $1,875,000
* 15 Girrahween Drive, Totara Vale, Auckland. Down - $277 Sold for: $873,000, Rating Value: $1,150,000 (July '17)
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