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Latest Morgan poll sees Labour fall, Greens rise, NZ First over 5%; Labour now polling lower than at any time since the last election

Latest Morgan poll sees Labour fall, Greens rise, NZ First over 5%; Labour now polling lower than at any time since the last election

Content supplied by Roy Morgan Research

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a strong rise in support for National (51%, up 3%) and a substantial lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance (38.5%, down 1.5%) just more than two months before the New Zealand Election on September 20.

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little overall with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%), Act NZ (0.5%, down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Support for the Labour Party is 23.5% (down 4.5% - the lowest since November 22-24, 2011 – just before the 2011 New Zealand Election), the Greens are 15% (up 3% – the highest since August 26-September 8, 2013), New Zealand First is 6% (up 0.5%) and the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 1.5% (down 1%).

Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 0% (down 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be an easy victory for the National Party and a third term for Prime Minister John Key.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up slightly to 142.5pts (up 1pt) with 65.5% (up 0.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 23% (down 0.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is substantially higher than in Australia.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (51%, up 3% in a fortnight) increasing a strong election-winning lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (38.5%, down 1.5%). Today’s poll shows that the recent Labour Party Congress at which Opposition Leader David Cunliffe pledged increased spending on education of over $850 million over four years have failed to generate a positive response from the electorate.

“Cunliffe has also apparently ruled out doing any deals with the left-wing Internet-Mana Party alliance that would allow either Mana Party Leader Hone Harawira or Internet Party Leader Laila Harre to serve as Ministers in a future Labour Government. Cunliffe indicated his preference would be to do deals with the more established Greens and NZ First.

“While Prime Minister John Key has departed New Zealand for a ten day holiday in Hawaii, National now have their largest lead over Labour since the last New Zealand Election and are well on track to win their third election in a row.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” 

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 819 electors from June 30 – July 13, 2014.

Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

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13 Comments

Wow, looks like Labour is imploding....

Just look at that trend, 2 more polls like that and the Green's will be no2...

That will be funny. If that happens I dont think Cunliff can even stay in Parliment let alone continue with the labour Leadership.

regards

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They don't help themselves.

 

With their recent "guilty until proven innocent" rape law change policy, you'd have to be funny in the head to vote for them.

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you think the average kiwi has "one or two investment properties"?  If that were the case there would be no homes left for owner-occupiers. 

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The traditional Labour voter is a worker of proud but modest means. Nowadays Labour is targeting voters from the fasionable minority groups of the day. Being anti capital gains is not high on any of those groups agenda. Kimy capital gains might be an important issue for you but I doubt it explains any wider political outcomes.

 

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Kimy, Totally disagree. I think you may have described a National voter.

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Rubbish IMHO, unless you can show some proof?  I see no indication in the press for instance that this is the case.

The people you are describing are the typical middle class, professional people, or one man bands doing a tax dodge not working class. If you followed the Labour diatribe there is no sign that a CGT bothers them, in fact they like it as its screwing over the "rich". The fact that ppl with 1 or 2 investments are not "rich" is like water off a ducks back to them, fools frankly.

a) These voters with 1 or 2 investment properties are also probably the swing voter, so yes I can follow that we see a leak to National.

b) The Greens are going up as Labour drops, suggesting some of Labour's left vote has gone Green to me and they are also pro CGT from what I can see.

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Good to see the Greens polling well.  I wonder how much of their increase in support is simply because labour are a mess.  

 

I find it amazing that more people don't seem to find John Key a swarmy creep.  I guess 52% of the population deserve everything they get.

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There is a theory (for which there is some evidence) that the majority of undecided voters lean left, and are unwilling to nominate a particular party at this stage as they want to see how the campaign shakes out. OTOH for people one the right there is no real alternative to National. this is the explanation for how the poll results that most people want a Labour led government, and most decided voters support National, can both be true.

Part of the argument for this is that while Nationals percentage support has moved around a fair amount since last year, the actual number of people supporting National hasn't changed. What has been changing is the number of decided voters (basically by Labour voters declaring as undecided) this pushes down The number of decided voters, and the percentage support of National among decided voters goes up.

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Well there sems to be a disernable voting trend over the last year tome.  Labour's decline seems to be matched by a gain for National and a bit of a gain for the Green's and a bit to NZF. 2 months out and I think Cunliff and Labourlook like toast.

regards

 

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I find John Key smarmy, creepy and annoying the way he laughs off any serious question. I wasn't in the country for the end of Helen Clark (who I found a scary control freak) and the start of John Key but I genuinely do not understand why he is so popular. He seems such a light weight -he doesn't provide leadership for any of the major issues confronting the country. Christchurch rebuild -nah, GFC -nah, housing crisis -nah, rebalancing the economy -nah, balancing dairy growth with environmental concerns -nah. I think under Key civil society is being starved of oxygen and given this is a continuation of decades of stavation we may never recover. The slow slide to being a banana flavoured milk republic seems inevitable.

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But why is Labour a mess?  at least any worse than for the last 6~9years. I mean I cant look back and say, OMG they have topped themselves with that idea/strategy. Though pandering to the vocal minorities might not be a draw card.

regards

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David Cunliffe needs to stand up and admit that sometimes he's embarassed to be the Labour Party leader ....

 

.... Shearer wasn't so bad after all , guys !

 

And Robbo is biding his time .... post election , he'll emerge from the ashes of their defeat as the new leader ....

 

.... it's like watching a slow train wreck in motion ..

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Cunliff said he is sorry.  Time to bring back comrade Clark.. (and the moa)

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