Last year I wrote many articles on COVID19, starting five weeks before the first lockdown. The common thread running through most of them was that we were underestimating the beast, being reactive rather than proactive. But we were lucky and we got away with our tardiness.
And then around September 2020 I largely stopped writing about COVID19. The reason was simple. Our strategies had caught up with the COVID situation. My very last article was in January where I thought that we were underestimating the effects COVID19 would have throughout 2021.
Now nine months later, I am writing again about COVID19 because we are acting too slowly to the new emerging situation. Events of the last week have demonstrated that we need a COVID reset.
The key issues relate to how we can get through the next six weeks, giving vaccine rates a chance to reach higher levels without an infection blowout in the meantime. The associated issue is the need to treat New Zealand during this time as three distinct regions with hard borders between them.
All of this is politically difficult. It requires the Government to acknowledge that right now COVID19 is winning the battle and that they got some decisions wrong. With hindsight, Auckland went into Level 3 too soon and the existing regional boundaries have been too soft.
The most crucial statistic is that on Friday 8 October there were 33 new cases where people were known to be infectious in the community. Then there is the Sunday 10 October statistic of 60 new cases. Clearly, we now have exponential growth occurring. At best, we have a tiger by the tail.
Leadership sometimes means admitting errors and doing a reset. I have always liked the Eisenhower quote, of which there are several versions, that ‘planning is everything but plans are nothing’. There is no point in trying to defend the indefensible.
The challenge right now is that the people of Auckland in particular are tired of lockdowns. Also, an environment of uncertainty is mentally debilitating. Ongoing lockdowns without clear end points will not be obeyed, particularly within some demographics.
So, here is pathway to get us through the next six weeks. The path is not perfect because there are no perfect paths. But right now, we are on the brink of something a lot more painful.
Unfortunately, Auckland and most probably Northland and the Waikato do need to go back into Level 4 for a four-week period. That will be exceptionally painful but the alternative is even worse.
This four-week period at Level 4 would be followed by two weeks of Level 3, with this followed by Level 2, and with the date thereof being around November 24, and with this date laid out now.
This would give everyone who is willing time to be double vaccinated (using a three-week vaccination interval) plus a two-week immunisation interval thereafter.
The rest of the North Island and the South Island country would remain in Level 2 in the interim, unless and until events proved an alternative course of action was needed.
The need for hard borders
In addition to any soft borders, there need to be two hard borders, one separating off the North Island into two, with Waiouru being a key border point. There would need to be additional hard-border points on Highways 2, 3, 4 and 5, with Highway 43 also blockaded.
Cook Strait provides a superb natural border between the North and South islands. Freight would continue by air and sea. The Cook Strait ferries could use different drivers, with North Island drivers leaving their loads on the ferry at Wellington and fresh drivers picking up the load in Picton. All passenger air-transport between the islands would cease except for medical emergencies.
These two hard borders do not necessarily replace existing soft borders. Rather, they are defensible borders with prospect of being maintained.
These hard regional borders may need to remain in place even after all within-region movements are opened up. At some point regional hard-borders would be removed for those who are vaccinated, but perhaps not until considerably later for the non-vaccinated.
In contrast, softer borders protecting regions such as Rotorua and Taupo will almost certainly be bypassed. All they can do is slow down the infection rate outside of Auckland before eventually being made irrelevant.
There is nothing magic about 90 percent
One of the existing challenges is that there is nothing magical about the 90 percent vaccination target. This is because it is evident that vaccinated people can still be infectious, albeit most likely at much reduced levels compared to non-vaccinated people. It is now very clear that total population immunity in the absence of other restrictions has not been achieved anywhere in the world and it is unlikely to be achieved in New Zealand.
Even if and when the 90 percent target is reached across New Zealand, there will still be approximately 800,000 people not eligible for vaccination. This would leave the overall vaccination rate at approximately 75 percent, but with some demographic groups well below that.
So, 90 percent by itself is not going to stop the virus finding the non-vaccinated. According to The Spinoff, using Ministry of Health data, New Zealand’s vaccination-eligible Asian community already has a vaccination rate of 97 percent for one dose and 65 percent for two doses. In contrast, Maori have a vaccination rate of 59 percent for one dose and 35 percent for two doses.
There comes a time when individuals have to take responsibility for their own welfare. Society cannot be responsible for those who will not get the vaccine.
The alternative of staying in Level 3 over coming weeks appears to combine the worst of all outcomes. It is now evident that exponential growth is highly likely to continue. We will indeed end up with two groups of people, these being the vaccinated and the infected, but with everyone’s lifestyle affected.
To those who say that restrictions should be removed earlier than what I have set out here, my response is to say that we have to accept that it is only now that many people are becoming eligible for their second dose.
And to those who continue to say that we cannot leave anyone behind, I say that this current commitment is counter-productive. The non-vaccinated need to understand that broader society will not tolerate being treated in this way. And that is something that the Government also needs to understand. Either people get the vaccine or they accept the consequences.
This still leaves the vexed question of how to deal with overseas returnees. My assessment is that opening up New Zealand’s international borders will no longer be the Government’s most urgent priority. The most urgent priority is getting the internal situation under control.
The bottom line has to be that the clock is ticking very fast. Even if all of these regulations were implemented by Cabinet at its Monday 11 October meeting, then daily case numbers will likely remain on track to exceed 100 daily cases within the coming week to ten days, and potentially well above this. There is no time to waste.
*Keith Woodford was Professor of Farm Management and Agribusiness at Lincoln University for 15 years through to 2015. He is now Principal Consultant at AgriFood Systems Ltd. . He can be contacted at kbwoodford@gmail.com.
264 Comments
I just pulled the pin on leasing a premises for our business because I have no idea what the long-term plan is wrt lockdown targets, vaccination targets or what I am supposed to do if an employee who would be onsite doesn't want to be vaccinated (which is the case). An expensive new lease while politicians who have never had a real job make it up as they go along? No thanks.
Yes, uncertainty is very debilitating. And that is why I was trying to combine the need for a short sharp circuit breaker with a clear date as to L2, and a chance for the vaccination rate to catch up by that time. I do have concerns that our current pathway will lead to hospitals being overwhelmed and that this pathway is also causing huge stress in both the business community and the broader community.
KeithW
The key assumption is that you believe once we COVID is gone it won't come back? that's the same assumption that got us here after last years lockdown. The best we can do is vaccinate all the ppl that want to be vaccinated and add mitigations and precautions particularly for over 60's who are most vulnerable if infected
This is not the spanish flu where 10% of those infected died and all within 2 years, and even back then the world moved past it - back to a new normal,
We have to stop the flawed strategy of elimination which requires us to live like hermits through fear based (not evidence based) thinking with rules that are just as mutable as the virus.
How many flu viruses have humans actually beaten? Every year prior to 2020.>500 in NZ died from seasonal flu's - yet not a single lockdown then....
Could we add another possibility that other countries are dealing with COVID in a much different way and are much more successful? Such as India, Mexico, and more? Why on earth nobody in the media, incl. interest here, does not investigate and publish a bit more on the mitigation strategies available is beyond me. At my work (manufacturing supplying into construction sites), all I hear day in day out is, risk mitigation and what's our plan B! So, why, as a country, can't we go through a simple process of looking at the alternatives that are being used in the mix, such as preventative medical solutions that are cheap, effective and now proven to be (India a best and most recent example). I get really tired for being labelled anti-vax when I am not! I am vaccinated for many things, so is my daughter, but I refuse to take an experimental mRNA injection that is certainly not proven based on traditional forms of multi year evidence, and it does not confer immunity like a traditional vaccine. It is simply wrong to label those people who have safety concerns as anti-vax, persecute them at every turn and yet ignore the very successful ways Denmark, Norway, Sweden already have shown, and now India, Mexico and more countries refusing to continue with the fear porn and quickly implement a basic treatment regime that we now know works! But that would mean some leaders have to admit they were wrong, and they have to change course substantially, and we collectively have to pay for Pfizers grand solutions anyway, regardless of them working or not. Well, lets just get on with trying something that works overseas? Would that be an idea? And... is that one of the biggest economic issues of our times?
India is held up as some sort of shining example. Never mind that their excess deaths were 3,000,000 - 4,900,000 people.
Covid deaths massively undercounted there.
The best treatment is prevention. I.e a vaccine.
Experimental when 4,000,000,000 have had it, it's more tested than the famous ivermectin.
The conspiracy theorist antivax are the ones behaving irrationally.
Experimental when 4,000,000,000 have had it, it's more tested than the famous ivermectin.
When you say this you simply ignore that a traditional vaccine goes through 5-10 years of testing and observation in very small groups. Usually those who sign big waivers as they are already gravely ill.
You also take numbers and quote them without any context or backup to your claim. No different than our good MoH saying vaccines are safe, when they are not proven to be. Your argument is as unscientific as it could be! Yet you might be the first to jump on people to ‘follow the science’. How ironic and immature. No wonder it seems impossible to have rational, logical debate in this country.
More than 5 billion doses this century alone for just two of the diseases it treats - but you would know that if you followed the science. Perhaps find another drug to slag off.
"There are few drugs that can seriously lay claim to the title of ‘Wonder drug’, penicillin and aspirin being two that have perhaps had greatest beneficial impact on the health and wellbeing of Mankind."
"Perhaps more than any other drug, ivermectin is a drug for the world’s poor. For most of this century, some 250 million people have been taking it annually to combat two of the world’s most devastating, disfiguring, debilitating and stigma-inducing diseases, Onchocerciasis and Lymphatic filariasis. Most of the recipients live in remote, rural, desperately under-resourced communities in developing countries and have virtually no access to even the most rudimentary of medical interventions. Moreover, all the treatments have been made available free of charge thanks to the unprecedented drug donation program."
6.5 billion doses of Covid vaccine have been given. Therefore it's no less thoroughly tested for safety than ivermectin.
I have no problem with ivermectin being used for things it actually works for.
The idea that it is somehow safer and better than the vaccine is stupid.
I guess you have poor understanding of what testing is. No main stream vaccine has been less tested - let alone an experimental gene therapy. The Pfizer stage 3 trial doesn't finish for another couple of years but you would know that if you followed the science. How is the Primary Purpose working out?
"Primary Purpose: Prevention
Official Title:A PHASE 1/2/3, PLACEBO-CONTROLLED, RANDOMIZED, OBSERVER-BLIND, DOSE-FINDING STUDY TO EVALUATE THE SAFETY, TOLERABILITY, IMMUNOGENICITY, AND EFFICACY OF SARS-COV-2 RNA VACCINE CANDIDATES AGAINST COVID-19 IN HEALTHY INDIVIDUALS
Actual Study Start Date :April 29, 2020
Estimated Primary Completion Date :May 2, 2023
Estimated Study Completion Date :May 2, 2023"
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04368728?term=NCT04368728&draw=2…
Wrong, phase 3 is completed. Let's see you prove otherwise?
"Experimental gene therapy" trying the scary language tricks now are we. How is 6.5 B doses experimental?
The purpose that matters is to reduce death and serious illness. Who cares what the primary purpose stated in the documents is.
But that's all just playing with words.
Now let's get this clear.
Do you honestly believe that taking the vaccine is higher risk than catching Covid?
Belle is being very patient with you - you can't even read an US Government website that clearly states the Pfizer trial finishes in 2023? I'll cut and paste it for you again you poor chap.
You even need to hang about for phase 1 - for example -
"In Phase 1 participants, GMFR in SARS-CoV-2 anti-S1 binding antibody levels and anti-RBD binding antibody levels from before vaccination to each subsequent time point [ Time Frame: Through 2 years after the final dose ]"
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04368728?term=NCT04368728&draw=2…
We have flattened the curve, for 1.5 years infection rates are exponential once we released into the community. We notice spikes in vaccination rates once people realize that COVID is actually here.
There has been plenty of opportunity for people to get vaccinated, and the government to increase ICU capacity, nothing short of a crisis is going to cause this to change. It is time for the people who chose no to get vaccinated to feel the consequences of their right to choose.
How long does the rest of the population have to wait for the people who can be bothered, or don't want to be vaccinated to change their minds.
You agree that we should go to level 4 if people would be compliant? How many lives do you think it will save? To me level 4 is an elimination strategy, it doesn’t have a place in a society that is aiming to live with Covid, or a society that will be at 80%+ vaccinated in 3 or so weeks. Personally I think the govt should stick to the current level 3 and gradually easing it as vaccination rates increase, aiming for level 2 in 3-4 weeks time. Kids should be going back to school in a weeks time.
Anti-vaxxers need to know that they are NOT clever, wise, trendy or cool.
They are a public menace.
They are putting themselves and everyone else at risk of serious illness and death. Plus, they jeopardise our economy and future wellbeing.
Should non-vaccinated adults contract Covid, I'd like to see them given lower priority for our limited public hospital beds (and ventilators).
TTP
Well TTP is being a misery, yet Covid is VERY serious.
The death rate is hard to pin down, anywhere from 0.25% - 3%+ - it's all over the show and obviously depends on demographics and vaccine programs.
SPECIAL INVESTIGATION: What Really Happened in Wuhan (Sky News):
https://youtu.be/oh2Sj_QpZOA
Thanks for the link, watched the entire episode. Cannot help but think that much of this was public knowledge in early 2020 if you were following it closely enough. The only question left for me really is was the release from the lab an accident or was it actually deliberate and the answer to that will never be known.
frazz,
I agree that the Waikato is hard to seal off. That's why I (and some others) are saying that Waiouru is much more defendable, albeit with other blocks on highways 2, 3, 4, and 5; also Highway 43 from Taranaki through to the King Country.
I also agree that increasing numbers of people will disobey any rules. And that is why the future is somewhat bleak. There are no longer any easy solutions. Yesterday's infection in the community numbers and today's total numbers are very sobering.
KeithW
“today’s total numbers” but are they the total numbers? This is the problem each day those announced numbers are thought of as being gospel. But they are only the numbers revealed by testing. It is very misleading. There are obviously many more cases occurring out there but not being revealed by testing. Evidenced recently by the Doctor at Middlemore comment of “a steady stream.” On top of that there are many who don’t want to be tested, even if symptomatic, out of fear of losing work income or being taken away from their home. So putting all that together, you cannot fail to realise the “today’s numbers” as announced are far from the actual totals and frighteningly, might be in the minority.
You are quite right when you say "there are no attractive options" .
My point is that L4 is not an option at all - even if announced it will not be obeyed . Any plan that relies on it is a delusion at this point.
I have consistently supported ( and complied with .. ) the lockdowns up to now BTW - but their time has passed. There is no option but to open up gradually - no one should think it will be free of pain but it is all what remains.
Easy, we Deal with it Just like the rest of the world. We need to accept more people will die, but that is the price to pay for opening up (remember "let's get nz moving")
We have been living in a fantasy world for the last year. This virus was never going to magic itself away.
But let's stop the panic merchants. most of those will be old. Or sick. What's the average age of fatalities it countries worst hit? What's it in NSW right now? The vast majority of you will be OK.
If you are sick or old, thats when you isolate away.
And if you don't get a vaccine now? That's your problem.
People here always comment on extremes. "look at the USA" "thousands and millions will die". Let's get real here. There is a mountain of middle ground we can choose.
When we have 1000+ a year deaths and rising out of Control, that's when you consider bumping up restrictions. What's that looking like in terms of restrictions (lvl 2?)
Anything more (like your ridiculous suggestion of our level 4 now) is a complete over reaction compared to the cost we normally place on human life.
I'm not saying that living in a Time of Global pandemic doesn't suck. Its a turd sandwich either way. But its not the black death, or ebola and 100% We have conditioned ourselves to view the virus as worse than it is.
The daily case numbers are more akin to to a popular reality TV show, and we treat certain commentators and leaders as celebrities rather than taking a critical lense to our position.
Time to get on with life. If we are unprepared for this next phase then that's were you need to focus your energy. Icu and hospital capacity (where is it?) vaccine procurement (why did we screw this up) plan for opening the border (let's get open, at least for kiwis)
Covid is here to stay. We cannot get locking down the whole economy for the next 3 or 4 years. Time to Move on.
Fuffybunny - So with you, Arden can stick Lev4 where the sun don't shine, Lev3 has to go too.
If we carry on with the 1pm Punch and Judy show lets include the daily suicide cases, road deaths, flu deaths, deaths through delayed medical care/postponed ops and treatments !
Over 18 months we have had 28 Covid deaths almost all with underlying health issues.
Over 18 months on average we normally have 525 road Deaths, 900 Flu Deaths, 800 Suicides !!
Let's put some perspective to this situation, we have 2 neighbours selling up to get out of this country, they have had enough !
Originally the PM stated a short and sharp level 4 lockdown didn’t she. Didn’t like being reminded about that either. Level 4 didn’t and never will eliminate delta. Vaccination was started too late and too slow. Delta got the head start and it is increasing its lead.
... some will spout their paranoic anti-vax nonsense regardless of what the evidence & the experts tell them ...
This government needs to eat some humble pie & admit that elimination wont work with the delta strain.... we gotta double vax as many folks as quickly as we can ...
... and even then , the hospitals will be flooded with Covid sick anti-vaxxers ... selfish sods ...
GBH,
I have been a strong supporter of the two mRNA vaccines since May of 2020. But at that stage the clinical proof was lacking and the perspective that I held was not mainstream. The calls from Phizer that the Govt received at that stage were the same marketing calls that every Government was receiving from every vaccine manufacturer. It is a bit like horse racing - with hindsight we can all see the horses we should have backed. Our Government decided to back four different horses and fortunately one of them was Phizer.
The biggest problem at the moment is that there are too many people who are not inside the tent and there is an unused available supply of vaccine sitting there. And time is not on our side.
KeithW
KeithW - give the health concerns about the other mRNA vaccine, Moderna, do you not think some hesitancy from young people is sensible?
I understand that the Pfizer vaccine uses a lower dose of mRNA, but there doesn't appear to be any evidence that the mRNA alone is the cause of the heart issues being seen. There's no reason to think Pfizer are more capable of preventing or foreseeing these issues.
Keith, with all due respect, how well do you think booster shots required every 6 months and potentially forever will deal with COVID? Have you really invested intellectually so much that it is difficult to back up and say, hey, this might actually only be a temporary solution for the highest risk group (over 70's) who represent by far the vast majority of fatalities? Aside from that, we have to explore some real solutions that avoid the need for a 'vaccine' that actually is high risk and not really proven when other medications are proven to be an effective method of building natural immunity that is better?
I find it inredibly frustrating that ‘normally rational’ people suddenly have become so entrenched in something they bought hook line and sinker. It seems to me there is an absolute psychological barrier to even engage in rational calm debate about the real science aspects. Let alone what it means and how to use, apply that knowledge gained. To be honest, there are a few people whom I respected for their calm professional analisys until this Covid mRNA injection started to be touted as the allmighty saviour. Now I think, how can anyond be so blinkered and not even engage in a reasonable debate? Simple, too much fear about being terribly wrong. So, lets just push on until it gets so bad it can’t be argued with any longer. But by then (in 3-7 years i guess), so many people will have suffered effects of the injections causing health issues without it being officially recognised anywhere. That is the truly scary and sad aspect of it all. And in 20 years there will be some enqiry as to ‘how could this all happen without anyone saying something’…
Ever thought that we might feel the same frustrations about you? And that you just might be in a fringe minority?
The vaccines, although not perfect, are far less risky than catching Covid. It doesn't take much analysis to figure that out.
Where are your longitudinal studies of the effects of Covid itself?
If your beloved vaccine is so great, take it. I am not holding you back! But please stop pretending that it will help you or anyone else to get to level 1 in any hurry. And why are you so agitated when you are vaccinated? You should be just fine, or not? And if not, why do you call it a vaccine?
CT, I have heard it referred to as a hypnosis or psychosis. The propaganda machine is so over reaching it surpasses anything we have ever seen here in NZ. It makes me think of those places such as Iraq that had pictures and slogans everywhere of Hussein. Or China and Mao. A constant barrage everywhere, to subdue the people. And there is such aggressiveness with many people.
Well I am at the point where I feel threatened for my kids and grandees. So I am taking the fight back to them.
Its not just about whether we have the vaccine at a certain level.
We need to be more accepting that people can die. The current response is not proportionate to how we normally measure these things.
The current lockdown has cost the country more than the govts entire operating budget for next year. For what, 2 people? both of whom where in poor health? Not trying to offend anyone, but those two lives are not worth the many millions of dollars we are spending, or the restrictions to personal freedoms that we are facing.
No amount of vaccines is required to change this view, this is a personal choice by those making this up (as the go).
Time for a reset.
But how many deaths are we talking if we stay in level 3 (or even go to level 2)? My guess is that in 2 weeks time Auckland will have vaccination rates similar to countries that are mostly open, and in 3 weeks time Auckland should be around 85% as we are already 85% single vaxed; this is much better than most countries in the world. Surely we don’t need level 4 for that 3 week period (or ever again). Level 3 for 3 more weeks with continuous easing of the rules as the vax rate increases, level 2 after (with vax passports for hospitality etc)
NZr’s have no idea, and nor does the government it seems, if vaccination is to be the ultimate panacea. That is, prevents hordes of covid admissions spreadeagling hospital services. Because if it was, by now, the modelling would be being published definitively, providing said target, percentage thereof. The government is simply chasing its own tail in a game of its own making. Delta infections are outstripping vaccination rates pro rata by volume, and compounded by the two week lag for the first shot to be effective and then another three weeks lag until the second. By the time NZ may get to the 90%, who knows if that is actually relevant anyway, Delta will likely have gained the battlefield, before the Pfizer cavalry has even crested the ridge.
C'mon ... Foxy is a cool dude , and wanting the best outcome for us ... as we all are ...
... let's stop politicizing this and follow the science : Double jab ! ... get vaccinated ASAP .. end of story ...
We can't continue to crush the economy and SME's .... we gotta re-open to the world ...
... this will become a crisis of the unvaccinated...
Well, 'follow the science' is starting to ring pretty hollow by now, I am sorry too say. If you were just a little bit as critically informed about other possibilities to try and prevent serious illness and hospital admission rates, which IS AFTER ALL THE ISSUE HERE, then why are we not discussing more openly the treatments available and how they helped elsewhere? Can you please explain that to me?
No one knows, this virus has been in communities for less than 2 years. The mRNA experiment is also new. We can’t expect the government to know but we need to have an adult conversation about it and what the options are. Many countries overseas have lived with the virus, we have had the luxury of isolation, let’s not squander that advantage.
No. Every week a few more people wake up to the fact that we've never had a way of life where the goal is to achieve immortality for every individual.
We accept risks to do the things that make life worthwhile. Despite our society being safer than ever, people get old and die. Young people pass away from all sorts of horrific causes as well as plain dumb accidents.
It sucks that Covid has entered our lives but we need to move closer to accepting it.
What worries me is the fact that we have been cut off from the world for so long. There a lot of young people with little of no immunity to more common respiratory diseases like RSV and the flu. The longer we stay isolated the bigger the impact when we do reopen. These illnesses are more likely to affect the young. COVID is mainly a killer of the elderly and most of them should be double jabbed by now.
The concern with the delay trying to vaccinate those who do not want to be vaccinated. Is that healthcare workers and vulnerable members of society, in general had a second dose in the April to June window. Studies show that from 4 months, efficacy of Pfizer vaccine rapidly plummets. So we will be looking at healthcare workers becoming more likely to develop symptomatic infection, just as covid-19 becomes endemic, and hospitals become swamped. And those with significant co-morbidities, have immunity that is declining with every week that passes. There are no plans at present for booster doses, this will likely become a major issue from December onwards. But, this government is not known for their foresight.
My understanding is that the Government has ordered a supply of the J&J vaccine for boosters. I would prefer they stuck to Phizer or Moderna but I will still line up for a J&J booster. One of my English mates had his booster this week, so it must be now happening over there.
KeithW
Our son had the J&J in the US about 3 months ago, and has come down with COVID. A mild case, to be sure, so thank goodness for that. The question on my mind is whether or not those vaccinated who then contract the virus get increased natural immunity as a result, or whether the vaccine somehow works against that - meaning booster shots forever.
We get the flu shot annually, so I'm hoping eventually this virus can be incorporated into that regime but (as I understand it) that annual shot gives a very minute dose of the various virus' circulating and perhaps that's not recommended/possible with this particular virus.
So many unknowns.
I've been wondering about the possibility of the vaccines to interfere with the natural immunity as well. There's no reason in my mind why someone who had got COVID while vaccinated should ever need boosters if they've got enough of a natural immune response. If their argument is 'look at the flu', my answer would be, 'look how many people actually get a flu jab'.
There's no reason to prolong this endless money train.
Pfizer Keith. Its Pfizer. I have great respect for you Keith, but you have completely lost me on this. You have turned into one of those crazy vaxxers. We have options. I got covered in moxidectin yesterday and today, pour-on on the cattle. It will probably do a much better job than the jab. Try duckduckgo Keith. Some work has been done on it.
Belle,
Yes, I do have a deeply ingrained tendency to misspell Pfizer.
Moxidectin has been shown in vitro to inhibit COVID virus in green monkey Vero cells but it failed to do so in human airway cells. So it is highly unlikely to work as a COVID treatment. From memory that study was published in Lancet. It also has the potential to kill if the dose is too high. Very dangerous for humans to use veterinary doses.
KeithW
Hi Keith, thanks for the answer. The study I viewed found it longer lasting than ivermectin but not quite as good. Our family have had a few laughs about chucking a line of it down our backs. Its such a shame that we should feel that we have to consider such a thing. Our options for treatment have been taken from us. We are told there are no other options. Instead we are 'required' to join a rather large experiment. No thanks.
Hi Belle
I agree that moxidectin is longer lasting in the body than ivermectin and this is because of the way it is stored in adipose tissue. This time last year I was cautiously optimistic about ivermectin for COVID. But my initial optimism has been increasingly tempered by caution. I remain open to new information, and it is indeed a remarkable drug for river blindness. But alas, the evidence that it will do anything positive for COVID has become less convincing as time has gone by. I note that Pharmac has agreed to purchase 60,000 doses of molnupirivir, and it will be interesting to see if it is as beneficial as the manufacturers are claiming.
KeithW
Thanks again for the reply. Can you possibly explain the massive drop in cases in countries such as India and now Indonesia if not for their switch to Ivermectin?
Why cant the media and our leaders bother to have a real conversation with us instead of treating us like dimwits with this totally out of control propaganda machine?
There is no conversation about losing weight. Getting vit d and zinc into our systems etc etc.
Why will the people who have the air time not engage in anything but vaccine promotion?
Belle,
I would be very interested to see reliable data as to the use of ivermectin in India and Indonesia.
I am indeed fascinated by the way the case numbers there have declined but I cannot see any reliable evidence that this is linked to use of ivermectin.
I note that ivermectin was removed from the Indian COVID treatment protocol some months back.
Also, I note that by late June/early July the Indian sero-testing program found that 67.6% of Indian people carried COVID antibodies. I assume that will now have increased further.
And I note that Mumbai has now reached 93% first jab.
So currently I tend to the perspective that India has reached a level of 'population immunity' - I prefer that term to 'herd immunity'.
KeithW
Here's a thoughtful and well referenced discussion about the danger of Molnupiravir written by "trial site news".
https://defyccc.com/is-molnupiravir-a-global-catastrophic-threat/
And you guys complain of "fear porn"
The linked article is the definition of it.
It's very cleverly written, the referenced parts are relatively uncontroversial, but there is no evidence whatsoever for the conclusions drawn.
Just like antibiotic resistance, all drugs will decline in effectiveness over time due to natural selection. The same would apply for any treatment that works, even ivermectin, if it worked.
LOL. Back in the US, my son has been told he can't go back to work until he gets a negative test. There, you first have to use up your sick leave; then your annual leave; and after that you don't get paid. Anyway, he wants to go back to work (after having had just a five day work-week off) and so when he got his swab on Friday - he 'self-swabbed' with rubbing alcohol up his nose just before getting the swab. Will let you know if it worked! hahahaha. Hope all is well on the farm, Belle.
Yes, and oh the stunning silence, because nobody wants to admit that the 'vaccines' are not really the only solution, if at all for anyone under 70 (or 60 if you really like being fearful)!
Oh, and how is Israel doing by the way? Booster number...3-4 now, next stop no. 5? If anyone is trying to tell you all that this is the way to go, it is insanity by definition. Repeatedly doing the same thing when it seems to not help...
Thanks Keith Even with all the vaccination will we just end up like Singapore where even the vaccinated are ending up in hospital and cases are soaring? What do you think of "home medical kits" for prevention and treatment in the home to avoid infects and keep infected people out of medical centres and hospitals as much as possible. Much like on farm management. India and other countries have been utilising this approach effectively. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eO9cjy3Rydc Surely we can do better than India?
Could be right, introduce out patients (in home care) operated zoom like by GPs so they treat the symptoms they see in each patient, using medicines/scripts ubered over from chemists.
The step before that, is how do you convince people with symptoms to isolate and call GP. This applies for vaxxed and for un vaxxed (assuming non symptomatic do not spread). - doing this for companies mitigates need for vax passport, rather couple of questions plus a temperature check if needed.
Then KWs lock down, increases vax number allows kits + inhome rapid test be delivered to all homes business and community sites and enables hospitals and GP revise their protocols - like what Singapore have done over past 2 weeks.
Despite years of administering other vaccines GPs were excluded by the MoH for doing ditto for Pfizer, for far too long. Do not be surprised then that there has been very little forthcoming from the MoH as to what services will involve GPs as far as treatment of Covid patients. Zilch actually.
.. there was a check list of 485 performance regulations that each clinic had to sign off on for the MOH ... many were double or triple ups ... most were irrelevant or plain bat shit crazy ...
The MOH are " out to lunch " ... dysfunctional beyond our wildest nightmares...
Listening to interview this morning with Pharmac chief, they are well progressed with purchasing drugs for covid treatment. That is a relief, encouraging news. That would mean too once the Med Safe approval stamped, set procedures for general practices, prescriptions etc will click into gear. good progress therefore at this stage.
I think it is a disgrace how the MoH has been operating in NZ. If you looked carefully at other countries, notably northern Europe, it shows that there plenty of other things we could tackle right now, or in fact, should have been doing well over a year ago. Look at Denmark, Norway, Sweden right now! with vaccination rates below ours!!
BUT, so much easier to not take responsibility and obfuscate the fact that Pfizer has sold a lemon for gold, takes zero liability and will sue every country that tries to not take the balance of their orders when they see that they really don't work very well.
My understanding was medical centres and pharmacies were excluded at first due to the very stringent temperature and other requirements for the vaccine that were in place at that time. These requirements have subsequently been relaxed allowing more centres to provide vaccinations.
India is probably more up to date on anti viral properties of ivermectin than your good self. From Nature 2016 -
'Ivermectin: enigmatic multifaceted ‘wonder’ drug continues to surprise and exceed expectations
Antiviral (e.g. HIV, dengue, encephalitis)
Recent research has confounded the belief, held for most of the past 40 years, that ivermectin was devoid of any antiviral characteristics. Ivermectin has been found to potently inhibit replication of the yellow fever virus, with EC50 values in the sub-nanomolar range. It also inhibits replication in several other flaviviruses, including dengue, Japanese encephalitis and tick-borne encephalitis, probably by targeting non-structural 3 helicase activity.97 Ivermectin inhibits dengue viruses and interrupts virus replication, bestowing protection against infection with all distinct virus serotypes, and has unexplored potential as a dengue antiviral.98'
https://www.nature.com/articles/ja201711
Here you go, knock yourself out and then come back to tell us this was a shoddy publication or other such stuff, lol…
https://www.thedesertreview.com/opinion/columnists/indias-ivermectin-bl…
Any semi reliable study says no:
https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-021-0634…
https://dcricollab.dcri.duke.edu/sites/NIHKR/KR/GR-Slides-08-06-21.pdf
https://gidmk.medium.com/is-ivermectin-for-covid-19-based-on-fraudulent…
https://elemental.medium.com/ivermectin-for-covid-19-an-update-5e913bb4…
https://ebm.bmj.com/content/ebmed/early/2021/05/26/bmjebm-2021-111678.f…
You've selected a few outliers. There are far more studies which show an excellent benefit.
Gummy Bear Hero - You''re touting Ronapreve (aka Casirivimab, imdevimab REGEN-COV) This monoclonal antibody treatment has about the same efficacy compared to ivermectin according to the clinical trials. https://c19early.com/
You can guarantee the monoclonal antibody costs an absolute fortune. Ivermectin costs $1 USD per treatment!. Do you work for the pharmaceutical company or something?
Singapore with 124k cases and 153 deaths? We'll probably end up more or less like them. More because we are fatter and less vaxxed, less because we more spread out.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/singapore/
Bingo. If we accept the logic that people need to be locked down for their own protection, and that it's OK to implement blanket ethnic policies that ignore individual circumstances, the answer is quite clear.
Maori vaccination rates are what is holding us back, therefore they should remain in L3 while the rest of us move to L2.
More vaccinations = less danger of mutations like Delta developing (especially among the unvaccinated), less deaths and less severe illness/symptoms. More vaccinations also = less need for lockdowns.
Set a deadline of November for close to 100% vaccination, then open up. The majority of deaths in those countries struggling with Delta have been the unvaccinated. Yes, it was their choice but what's more important is that they are the petri dish where the virus mutates, so it is still important to get them to vaccinate.
There's zero evidence of vaccination in its current form preventing mutants. In fact, with current vaccines, it's more likely to increase the probability.
The logic is pretty elementary. The current vaccines are effective but not 100%. In the case of Pfizer at least, you can still experience infection and transmit the virus, just as the Bay of Plenty case did.
Since most people the virus encounters now are Pfizer-vaccinated, there is a large evolutionary reward for a mutation that can overcome the defence it provides. It will have ample opportunities to develop such a mutation, since it simmers away undetected in the vaccinated population.
No such evolutionary pressure exists for the virus in the unvaccinated, since it's already so damn effective at spreading.
Incorrect. Use of vaccines does not lead to new variants. The analogy with bacterial resistance and resistant strains eg MRSA, doesnt carryover to viruses (whereas an antiviral might lead to a less susceptible genotype/phenotype). You cant draw an analogy with serotype replacement seen with pneumococcal vaccines.......gets a bit beyond undergrad biology.
Correct! It's the serial passage of the virus through the vaccinated population that's creating the selection pressure.
I think this has been conclusively shown now in the genomic data. In a recent paper (see here in Figure 2) the authors looked at the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous (dN/dS) mutations for all of the proteins in covid19. The dN/dS ratio is a surrogate to measure the amount of directed evolution that's happening. Anything over 1 is highly unusual (ie not random). The dN/dS ratio for the S1 subunit of spike protein began rising in around June of 2020. It's now sitting at a staggering ~2.0. Covid19 is now furiously mutating the S1 subunit of it's spike protein to create fitter versions of itself that will evade moderna's anti-spike antibodies. Mutations in spike also raise the likelihood of vaccine enhanced disease.
Have another read. They're being diplomatic when they say: "This temporal structure likely indicates a changing evolutionary landscape: either through the emergence of new selective pressure, and/or through the occurrence of permissive mutations that made adaptive mutations more accessible. Additionally, selective pressure may be heterogeneous across the SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny due to particular transmission
chains transiting through populations with greater seroprevalence. Our results do not distinguish between these possibilities."
Another option is to put the whole country on level 2.5 until Xmas, remove roadblocks (which gangs are driving through anyway), keep ramping up vaccination, message everyone to take full responsibility for their careful living, allow all businesses to reopen with some limitations, announce only hospitalisation and deaths, and follow Australia with overseas travel with Vax and testing requirements, allow nz returners with self MIQ from safer countries.
Community transmission will be everywhere within 6 weeks regardless.
We actually need some gradual build up of natural immunity alongside vaccination - just can’t be avoided forever.
Having been out this weekend there seem to be a lot of people who don’t give a crap anymore. Mask wearing was less than 50% from what I saw, bubbles were quite obviously more than 2 families. While I’m sure there are a lot of people sticking to the rules and happy for another lockdown, there are way too many people who aren’t for it to work. Its pretty hard to expect vaccinated people to have no life for no real reason.
We need to decide whether we want to become a laughing stock of the world like Australia or part the cool kid's gang like Sweden or Denmark.
Enforcing full compliance for a long time on a diverse population like that of New Zealand's will require some ugly police action that goes against everything we stand for.
That question might be answered by starting at the other end. That is how much spare hospital capacity does NZ actually have to accommodate an influx of covid. Going back to the White Island tragedy, there wasn’t much spare then for example. The government’s very real fear could well be that, regardless of what actual percentage of NZrs do get vaccinated, there was always going to be sufficient unvaccinated and/or those with pre-existing complications, to over pressure hospital services. Suggest other hospital services, Norway, Denmark, Ireland for instance, and even the much maligned NHS in the UK, provide their governments with much more confidence than our equivalent does.
Disappointed in the article. The horse has bolted and putting Akl and any other region into higher lock down levels than they currently are for the length of time suggested just increases a much higher economic pain down the line. To expect much better than 85% double vax rate in the next month is pie in the sky.
Auckland and the rest of the country should be no higher than the original lockdown 2 level, if that. Of course the number of infections will increase drastically. The hospital system will have to triage those for ventilators, assisted oxygen and ICU. Dr Bloomfield and his staff should already be far down the line on this.
Singapore, in addition to the over 50s has now extended its booster rollout. ( How vaccinated are the vaccinated)
From 9 October 2021, we will start offering booster vaccinations to healthcare workers, as well as frontline COVID-19 workers who have completed their primary series vaccination regimen around six months ago. We are also working with various institutions to progressively roll out booster vaccinations to eligible persons in institutionalised settings.
36. From 9 October 2021, we will also progressively invite persons aged 30 years and above who have also completed their primary series vaccination regimen around six months ago to make an appointment for their booster dose.
52807 positive tests in past 28 days, the rolling 14 day averages show no statistical difference between those testing positive vaccinated/unvaccinated. 95 deaths , zero deaths below the age of 50, all but two deaths had comorbidities, the vast majority above 70 years of age. Indeed as Singapore accepts Covid is not an issue for the young. As their reports state "We will extend home recovery to unvaccinated persons aged 12 to 49 years as the severity of illness for such younger and unvaccinated individuals is low, and it is safe for them to recover at home." New Zealand will be playing political whack a mole thru winter 2022.
https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/update-on-local-covid-19…-(9-oct-2021)
Great proxy for NZ, with the exception of population density. Other than our few large cities, the spread around the rural areas is likely to be much slower.
Around this time last year I was in London and Boris told us we all needed to "lock down to save Christmas".
It was a lie. We locked down for months and Christmas wasn't saved.
We are a few weeks behind Melbourne and Sydney now. No turning it around.
Pro tip for all you older or larger folks, the better medical care goes to those who get it earlier in the outbreak.
I disagree. The government has the right strategy now, hopefully toward reopening. The problem of resetting was of it's own making: By encouraging the ramping up of fear, in the face of plenty of actual data and learning, the populace was ready and willing to lock itself down; here is this article the desire is to return to the harshest level of lockdown of any western country.
We've learned so much about the virus and its variants in the last two years; so we need to be open to receiving that science and information and recalibrating our response. Just like we don't bother to hand santize everywhere now, we learned from reserach that there is no surface spread; it's only aerosols we need to worry about. We didn't know what was coming in Jan 2020, but now we have a wealth of data and it's nowhere near the doomsday scenario we were told to plan for in 2020.
And fortunately for NZ we can examine a database of 8 million patient outcomes throughout the first wave in UK, without vaccine, and get a sober, factual risk analysis. I plugged my own data (I'm > 50yo) into the qcovid analysis (available via NHS website) and my risk of hospitalization(without vaccine as this was data from 1st wave) with 1 in 1675. That sort of low probability outcome is not worth the trauma and harm that's being inflicted as a product of lockdowns on the young and poor.
Now we have a proven vaccine and approaching 85% uptake. My (and the rest of the vaccinated populace) chance of needing treatment approaches zero. Yes, that leaves the unvaccinated 15%. But if we apply the same model to that 15% and assume the very low fatality rate (1-2%), concentrated in elderly, then we are dealing with 1% of 15%, so 0.15% of the population at risk.
And the uptake is good in the demographics that count (age). All this (actually patronizing) worry about "vulnerable groups" = arguably racist code word for minorities lagging in vaccination. Yet it's not true: When you look at the NZ published data by age older Maori, for one example, (>65) are not appreciably under vaccinated versus pakeha.
Frankly if you are young you are going to be just fine with or without a vaccine; that's what the NHS data and all the other data is telling us.
So no to a return to "lockdowns". We need to be vaccinating and getting back to normal.
Wow thanks for that information, I have been banging on for weeks for this type of information so I could do an individual risk assessment. Even with the rubbish BMI in the calculation I'm still a low risk at age 54. "In a crowd of 10000 people with the same risk factors, 1 or less are likely to catch and die from COVID-19 and 9 to be admitted to hospital during a 90 day period similar to the recent peak". BMI is a rubbish metric but obviously easy for people to enter data but there needs to be an actual body fat entry. My BMI is 32 but my body fat is like 24% so hardly "Obese"
yes interesting. Weight doesn't seem to make 'too' much difference.
I'm 186cm and 92 kg, whacking that up to 110 kg in the tool only very slightly increased my risk, form rank 57 to rank 59 (rank worsening as it goes up, with 100 being ultimate risk).
But changing my race to 'Black African' took me from 57 to 71...
The tool I tried:
https://www.qcovid.org/Calculation
I have around a 1 in 5000 chance of dying. By changing my ethnicity from White British to Bangladeshi the odds went to around 1 in 2000. Curiously vaccination status wasn't part of the equation.
Do you actually understand what the numbers that tool is spitting out actually represent?
I would read the description properly before getting lulled into a false sense of security.
The odds of hospitalisation or death if you actually become infected with the chinavirus are vastly less in your favour. Something like 1 in 20 people need hospital care at age 40 and it goes up rapidly from there.
And with the extreme contagiousness of Delta being exposed is now almost a certainty over the coming months.
This one uses US data as of end of 2020, and lets you add preexisting conditions
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mortality-risk-…
I believe that's because the data was collected during the "first wave" in UK - 2020, before vaccines were available or widely distributed. So this is the statistical risk without vaccine. Plenty of more recent data showing that risk of hospitalisation approaches very near zero when vaccinated.
We have had a few thousand of positives cases in NZ (arrived, tested positive and processed via MIQ). As far as I can gather zero entered hospital due to COVID. Isn't this of some statistical significance? Point is we've had the fear dialed up to 11 from the outset and now, as the evidence comes in, it's hard, politically to reset things.
It is the statistical risk of being hospitalised multiplied by the odds of actually catching it during that initial wave.
And that's important. Thats why the numbers come out so low, because not very many people got infected and had a positive test during the first wave compared to the whole population.
If you actually catch coronavirus there is a 5-10% chance you'll need to go to hospital at age 40 of unvaccinated.
The Pfizer vaccine makes that about 11 times less likely.
Sorry, no those qcovid numbers are meaningless today. They are the odds of hospitalisation or death across the entire population during the relatively short first wave of the original not very infectious Wuhan strain.
If you actually contract the disease (and being exposed to delta is now almost a certainty over the next year) the odds are much much higher that one runs into medical troubles, especially if unvaccinated.
Lockdowns are stupid, but those numbers are being interpreted the wrong way.
Agree, but there is one factor that has been overlooked. That is, even when they have had the right data early on, they have chosen to ignore some of it.
For example, there was plenty of scientific evidence from day one that the virus was spread mainly by aerosol transmission.
We also knew that masks have some effectiveness, but the type of mask is important. We were told initially that masks had no benefit, and now that they do, but no nuance about the correct type.
We also know that those with comorbidity issues are at higher risk, but no mention at all over the last two years for people with those comorbidities to try and reduce those. This is especially important in those groups that are lagging in vaccination rates AND have high comorbidities.
Our strategy seems to be, 'treat yourself to as much KFC as you like, just get vaccinated.'
Lockdowns are pointless now, its all over. There is no way that Auckland will have a sustained level 4 lockdown, simply to many people will ignore it now. Vaccine rates are now high enough, no option but to open up now and get on with it. A few people are going to die, thats life.
To be frank, I think Ardern and co are completely petrified of the political ramifications of widespread community infection.
They prospered heavily in a political sense in their (albeit unsustainable) elimination strategy.
Now that's run out of puff, and can't be sustained, I think they are really worried what that will mean for them politically.
For me, they are now like rabbits in headlights. They know it's not sustainable to keep going with elimination, but they are muddled on an alternative path. And that muddling is because they are petrified.
Wu-flu is about to spread like wildfire, and that's going to spell big political problems for Labour in 2022.
... true ... they need to " mea culpa " , and say " hey gang , delta has changed the playbook ... get doubled jabbed by December 1'st ... we're reopening to the world " ..
As " Iron " Mike Tyson said , " everyone has a plan, until you get punched in the face ! "
... delta is that punch : crash , boom , wallop ... time for Plan B ...
Today we have a person double vax spreading the virus , great stuff , so you in into a bar, gym , big concert , where ever and say 50% of people of double vax pick up virus and they get need 2 weeks off work due to the covid flu
We are now a divided nation just like the springbok tour , thanks to our govt
I know many people who cannot have vax and have exemption are comparing those people ?
True story we have had a person who has taken his life in our family due to uncaring people as they though they were poison and fall into anti vax people
Big omission from your article Keith - if Auckland goes back to Level 4, what do we do about the likely untold business failures that would result? I am very surprised you are silent on this, as it's one of the biggest issues.
Would you support large increases in business assistance?
Housemouse
I have been supportive of the Government's wage subsides but I have not been supportive of the RBNZ QE program at anywhere near the level to which it has occurred.
I am not at all comfortable with L3 restrictions that look like going on to Xmas and beyond. I was trying to find path that would get back to L2 before the end of November but I don't think we are on such a path currently. And I certainly don't think it is realistic to go to L2 currently.
KeithW
Wage subsidies help, but they are nowhere near enough.
They don't address rent and other costs.
So, in my view whether we are at level 3 or 4, much more subsidies are required.
Do you live in Auckland, Keith? Or are you another commentator commenting from afar in a place with much greater freedoms?
Housemouse
When I analyse situations I try and separate that out from my own situation.
But my own consultancy business is about half onshore and half international, and it has been very constraining not being able to travel for the last 18 months
And I have just this evening been cancelling work-related internal air tickets for this coming week.
Last week I was talking by ZOOM to one of my overseas mates who has spent 259 days of the last year in lockdown. Another of my mates in the UK has just received his first booster injection.
And I have huge sympathy particularly for those with young families or those living in constrained housing situations.
But when I write, I first listen to what others are saying to understand what is happening, and then I try and put emotion aside and try to find the best logical solutions to some horrible messy issues.
Right now I do not like the situation we find ourselves in here in NZ. I am unable to find any solutions that are attractive not only for Aucklanders (who are indeed carrying a very unequal share of the load) but also for many other NZers. A key point is that there are no easy solutions.
KeithW
Auckland and most probably Northland and the Waikato do need to go back into Level 4 for a four-week period...
Lockdowns are a only a short-term mitigation because they don't solve any underlying problem. I think their shelf life is rapidly expiring. We may not like it but Covid-19 is becoming endemic within the human population.
We are about to go though summer and peak immunity with a strain that the vaccine is still reasonably effective against. I think we should save our lock-down fatigue for a potential winter wave: Offer group 2 a booster as some must be close to due and the elderly subsidized quarantine (say the over 70s). For the rest of us its level 2 with regional borders to help contact tracing.
Use the summer to get natural immunity in the young because otherwise we will forever be locking down if we set this as the standard, the next wave will be worse.
Or we could just do what most of India have done.
You give our healthcare system a fighting chance ONLY if you consider certain treatments regimens that have been derided until now. If that is not being considered by logical people in MoH or government, the I would question what else could hold them back from doing so? And more importantly, who is going to ask the PM the hard questions and when?
CT - Promising new treatments are not only being considered but have been purchased: https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/10/coronavirus-pharmac-…
If there are numerous other countries using an existing drug in combination with other basic things such as Vitamins and Zinc, and has been shown to be effective in reducing significantly the effects of COVID 19 and hospitalisations and deaths, would you want it available in NZ now?
The whole health system is now geared towards improving equity (it's the positive spin on 'reducing inequity'). When Maori are lagging in vaccine uptake and disproportionately impacted by COVID-19 there will be a lot of very VOCAL people pushing for improvement REGARDLESS of the national vaccination uptake figure eg 80%, 85 %. This will be a rate limiting dynamic which everyone has ignored publicly. Until Maori cross a threshold, widespread opening will be delayed.
I agree that it is not just the overall vaccination rate but the rate of vaccinations within various demographics that will influence both the way infections play out and also the political dynamic. Also, the rate of vaccination among eligible people is only part of the story given that there is another 16 percent of the population who are not eligible for vaccination because of their age, but are highly relevant to the transmission of the virus. 90% of 84% = 75.6%. That by itself will not be enough to stop Delta.
Keith W
Today we have a person double vax spreading the virus , great stuff , so you in into a bar, gym , big concert , where ever and say 50% of people of double vax pick up virus and they get need 2 weeks off work due to the covid flu
We are now a divided nation just like the springbok tour , thanks to our govt
I know many people who cannot have vax and have exemption are comparing those people ?
True story we have had a person who has taken his life in our family due to uncaring people as they though they felt like they where were poison and fall into anti vax people very selffish comments on here
the next week or two will be telling, we are in the period where a lot of people can get their second jab so fully vaccinated numbers will rise quickly, we will also be able to see what happens in australia as they open up and the encouraging signs from NSW are daily numbers decreasing and daily numbers of deaths are also falling.
it will be something this government will have to endure now , daily reports of people dying from covid and political parties from all sides blaming them
.things i have not been happy with is the slow roll out of antigen and salvia testing, the non roll out of alternate vaccines through your local GP, they say they learn from what they see and hear overseas but do they, the moh is so so slow , why has no planning gone into more hospital infrastructure, example all the money (millions) spent on MIQ facilities and how much have they spent on expanding and out fitting our hospitals with more ICU HDU and negative air pressure hospital rooms
Your article is on the money in terms of a closing window of opportunity. Your strategy is flawed.
We need less lockdowns not more. The only method of achieving this is with herd which for delta is around 94% vaccinated. This is unachievable without JA committing to the following. The broad strategy is carrot and stick and this is how I would like to see it done but I fully acknowledge there are a million ways of doing this.
Carrot: Every person over 12 (12-18 year olds have guardians take responsibility) are awarded a Government backed $500 voucher. Not bankable. This would cost $1.5B with 100% uptake (1 and a half Auckland lockdown weeks). The amount available would drop by 50% in 4 weeks, and then every week there after.
Stick: Unvaccinated (1 jab initially then 2 jabs in 4 weeks) would not be allowed in high risk (populous indoor environments unless for essential purposes). Goes live immediately. Includes all flights, bars, restaurants, cinemas, gyms, pools, sports events, concerts and so forth.
The stick will probably happen as soon as the vax certificates are available. And the stick will indeed be very effective at getting vax rates up into the mid 90s as long as it is not stymied by court rulings. It is a pity the system is not already up and running.
KeithW
This might be the first time in history of vaccines, that a vaccine is being pushed to individuals - children - in USA it's pushed now from 5-11 and guess it will go that way in NZ too - who have zero risk of any harm (get no benefit from the vaccine) purely to get "numbers up".
This isn't measles - kids are so close to 100% unaffected by COVID.
Young children seem almost entirely unaffected by COVID, can carry it, but even vaccinated could still (lower risk?) spread. We have our older children 12+ vaccinated, but I have an ethical challenge about getting it for the very youngest (when that inevitably gets mandated / pushed / nudged too). It would only be to avoid inconvenience for overseas travel, but that's a terrible reason to make a vaccine decision for a child when that person, unlike other vaccines like measles etc, gets zero personal benefit.
It is more complicated than that. First, plenty of children are at risk, including those with underlying health conditions. Second the vaccine will convey some immunity which is likely to be useful against future variants as well, particularly following exposure to the delta variant. Third, an infectious child can infect a very vulnerable adult (grandparent for instance). Even if that adult is vaccinated the viral load from a sneezing or coughing child could be very high which might lead to breakthrough infection. Plenty of reason to vaccinate all the kids.
Yeah Andrew lets throw our children onto the alter for the aged and infirm. The idea disgusts me. When did it become ok to put the aged before the young?
I am done being polite. Most of the responses here from those not wishing to be jabbed are incredibly polite and knowledgeable. Not so much the other side.
Now I stick up for my grandaughters with all the rage of a lion for its cubs. Their health and fertility is not for adults to put at risk. You jabbers are all mad.
Here we go Dan, this might reduce your paranoia very slightly…
https://aaronkheriaty.substack.com/p/on-vaccinating-those-with-natural
So what you are saying in effect is, the so-called "vaccine" that is really a mRNA injection, does not work like all vaccines did before, that is it doesn't prevent infection or transmission. Therefore we must inject the same non-working "vaccine" into all the kids to REDUCE the amount of transmission. Not eliminate it, because you can't as you are already accepting that the "vaccine" does not stop infection or transmission! Are you people really so stupid to not see this circular argument that defies all logic?
Um because it is experimental. We have adverse effects from it like no vaccine ever. Because despite what they say it is still under EUA. Because 10 months usage does not cover the timespan required to show up long term effects.
Moderna. Countries are turning away now
Astrazeneca. Sketchy.
J and J. Also not popular.
How long before Pfizer is a dirty word?
Hi Keith, while I disagree with your article, and your support for mandating vaccines, which i think is criminal, I have to admit, you get full marks for responding in the comments! Even if I feel you avoid answering some questions I posed. My hat is off because you are still far better than just about anyone else in the media, by seemingly trying make your point and not resorting to childish comments seen by so many here. However, not to leave it just there, I genuinely want to get your opinion on natural immunity…
https://aaronkheriaty.substack.com/p/on-vaccinating-those-with-natural
C_T_20,
I think natural immunity (linked to both individual genotype and age) and acquired immunity (from prior infection) are an important part of the equation. For example, I think that a young community plus lots of asymptomatic infections has to be an important part of why the new case numbers have declined so greatly in India. My understanding is that sero-positivity in India was approximately 67% by the end of June. However, I note that at least some parts of India also now have very high vaccination rates. In regard to ivermectin, I continue to search in the fog for where truth might lie. But I do note a recent study published in Lancet which demonstrated that neither ivermectin nor moxidectin destroyed SARS-COVID-2 in human airway cells. That study did appear to be well done. Nevertheless, I would like to see a top quality double blind study using ivermectin at similar rates as used for treating river blindness, which we know to be safe. Patients would undergo treatment (placebo-controlled) on being admitted to hospital. If ivermectin was still under patent then that study would already have been undertaken.
KeithW
How unfortunate to have an unintelligent and far-left Marxist government in power at the time covid emerged. They’ve made a meal of it by implementing authoritarian controls that would have been laughed away as impossible two years ago. Living overseas is an antidote to the propaganda and groupthink in NZ. Life is mostly normal in Europe. I don’t know anyone personally who’s died from covid, and I had it myself and it wasn’t that bad. Of course, people are dying from covid. About 780 people per million from memory since the beginning of 2020 according to excess death data from euromomo. That’s a big number, but death is a normal part of life and people also die from heart disease, stroke and other ailments.
Everything in New Zealand is backwards and upside down. The border should never have been closed. Lockdown is a blunt tool that doesn’t work very well and causes maximum collateral damage to the economy. The vaccine is not very effective, and should never have been given to healthy young people. Natural immunity is superior to vaccinated immunity, and we should have been striving all along to achieve as much natural immunity as possible. There are effective medications like ivermectin vitamin D and zinc that can dramatically lower the risk of being hospitalized. Saying the truth in public now will either get you ridiculed or cancelled.
It’s difficult to even read option pieces these days because they’re all predicated on distorted thinking. Facts don’t matter anymore. Singapore 85% vaccinated but cases skyrocketing – ignored. First a little lie, then distorted thinking to cover the consequences of the lie, then more lies to cover the consequences of the distorted thinking. I’m optimistic for the future but this government isn’t making it easy.
Hi FatPat. You are a voice of sanity.
Do you think that the whole Covid scam is encapsulated in John Ionnaidis' findings of a 0.1% IFR for Covid (based on 30 peer reviewed reports)? This finding has not been challenged, as far as I am aware by ANY expert, and proves that Covid is less lethal than the flu.
Thanks. That's an interesting study you highlight (this one I presume). I'm generally skeptical of seroprevalence studies, like the one conducted in NZ, because they completely ignore T-cell immunity. The tendency with IFR is to overestimate the numerator (by classifying every death as covid), and underestimate the denominator (using seroprevalence studies). My gut feeling is that 0.15% is an overestimate.
The Ionnaidis paper was submitted in January 2021 and precedes all effects of delta. The Ionnaidis paper in turn is based on papers published prior to that. It has minimal relevance to current IFR rates. Many developed-country death rates run at more than 0.2 % of the total population. Hence an IFR in excess of 0.2% is the absolute minimum, and even this requires an assumption that in the order of 90% of infections were not identified.
KeithW
Totally agree. I live in the US and have to say both New Zealand and Australia are looked upon in disbelief, subject of jokes in fact. Lock downs, bubbles, snitching, no hugging, can't use the neighbors toilet etc.. What the heck is wrong with you people. Vaccines are great, however they do NOT stop the transmission of Covid. They protect against severe illness and death. Which is why Singapore and Israel both have high infection rates despite most of the population already vaccinated.
KevinSexton7274,
I can withstand jokes about us from the USA, and I reckon we have done rather well compared to the USA. Almost certainly, vaccines do greatly reduce the transmission on COVID but they certainly don't prevent it. But right now we have a new situation here in NZ, and it is very challenging to get our minds around that situation. I expect to see another wave in the USA as winter approaches, but only time will tell. The biggest hope for America is that non symptomatic infections have raised the immunity levels sufficiently to prevent that from happening.
KeithW
Greatly reduce transmission - part of Pfizers marketing? "No Significant Difference in Viral Load Between Vaccinated and Unvaccinated, Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Groups Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant"
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264262v1
@kevinSexton7274
Totally agree mate, I'm the same as you, living in Denver. Life is normal, bars are open, stadiums at full capacity, life goes on.
Stop the hysteria, its just madness. Oh and open the borders, I'd love to not have to go into a lottery and forced 2 week lockdown to see family and friends...
The article states " In contrast, Maori have a vaccination rate of 59 percent for one dose and 35 percent for two doses."
But we know (see the UK and USA stats) that it's a disease that impacts mainly (overwhelmingly) the very old. Elderly are vulnerable. So take a look at the current NZ Data by ethnic group segmented by age:
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-no…
See here that 65+y Maori have pretty much same vaccination rate as european. So young Maori, maybe less coverage, but they have almost no risk of serious effects, any other ethic group young person. So let's not get over anxious: The elderly are highly vaccinated and that's the population at most risk, based on nearly 2 years of data with this virus,
Of course it does not pass the sniff test. This Government is blinded by its own woke BS. They seem completely incapable and/or unwilling of conducting a nuanced analysis of the available information. Moreover, they have not even a beginning of an understanding of what it means to run a business, and they think that transforming the Auckland business community into a mass of welfare recipients will do no serious damage to the economy, in their ideologically driven decision making process.
I think the way forward is to move out of lockdown on a case by case basis. Based on the amount of risk for each individual business or activity, and the steps taken to minimise them . For e.g , truck drivers should not be driving from Auckland to Palmerston north . a transport company that organises a contactless transfer at Hamilton , or some other Waikato depot , should be allowed to operate. Ones that need to drive through shouldnt. (Yes, i am aware that at the moment they can ).
Who is going to do that Solar? Trying to get drivers in normal times is difficult. I can imagine now getting a stock truck driver from here the King Country, to the Auckland border. And then what? Anyone in Auckland know how to unload stock? Or manage a moving load?
I'm not sure that the 4 week period at level 4 suggested will gain much with regard to Christmas.
Either way we will see exponential spread at the end of 4 weeks.
At level 3 we seem to be doubling about every 2 weeks. So in 4 weeks we can expect around 300 daily cases, 6 weeks 600 daily cases. I think that's still manageable working on 5% hospitalisation rates.
We need as many as possible double vaccinated +2 weeks by then otherwise there will be big problems.
Shaun Hendy has this morning talked of the need for a 'circuit breaker' without being explicit as to the details. But this would be an attempt to 'flatten the curve' to give the vaccine a chance to catch up and thereby constrain the exponentiation thereafter. And that was what I was suggesting by advocating a short sharp L4 attack. Even two weeks would be a big help. But clearly right now it would not be popular.
KeithW
There are a couple of assumptions I'm working with.
1. That even high levels of vaccination are not sufficient to prevent exponential spread, as demonstrated by Singapore.
2. That Covid is going to become endemic in NZ
To me this moves the focus somewhat from keeping cases very low, to keeping them at a level where the health system isn't overwhelmed. Taking the top off the peaks if you like.
I think it's unlikely that cases will be peaking inside 6 weeks, so I think we are best to save what remaining lockdown goodwill there is for the true peaks. To keep our powder dry to protect the hospital system later.
Covid Vaccines are not designed to stop the transmission of Covid. They are brilliant at protecting against severe illness and death following infection. However unlike the Measles vaccine which stops transmission at close to 100% rates. The vaccine is all about protection of an individual against severe illness and death. It does not prevent transmission. It does so initially however that benefit wanes quickly within just a matter of months.
Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is a sign of insanity. Why is the government steadfastly ignoring therapeutics? There are a number of peer reviewed papers outlining the effectiveness of kits containing ivermectin, doxycycline, vitaminD3 and zinc in India and other places. Yet here such tactics are actively suppressed and one has to ask why. Even health supplements such as NAC, suggested to be of value in treating covid, are being removed from shop shelves. There are underlying actions taking place which are difficult to understand, and they wonder why conspiracy theories come to the fore!
It's like they want to control absolutely everything. There's hardly any information or advice on looking after yourself before and during infection. Few resources available. We are all reduced to the lowest common denominator and being viewed as helpless babies by the authorities. Enough of this nonsense!
There's a few interesting papers suggesting green tea might have covid preventative / treating actions.
Interestingly, I started being a heavy green tea drinker 4-5 years ago. Prior to that I usually got two colds a winter, haven't had any since then.
Could of course be coincidence, but maybe not.
It's suggestive rather than scientifically proven, but still, I love green tea anyway so nice if it has even something to it in terms of covid.
So plenty of green tea and vitamin D.
You are going against the program by suggesting that there is anything else you could do to reduce your risk, other than getting vaccinated.
You have to learn to give over yourself to a quick fix injection rather than the laborious daily grind of personal responsibility and looking after yourself as a first response.
In my experience there's no single fix for these seasonal illnesses. I overhauled the lot - lost weight, started exercising hard daily, take a good regimine of vitamins (C,D, Zinc, Multi, Magnesium), cut carbs down, cut alcohol, increased good quality meat. Now when the bugs go through the family, I seem to get a minor dose of it. Just feel "off" for a day or two. Meanwhile the rest of the house is a war zone.
Hi rpvr - newshub article here saying pharmac has just agreed purchase of a very promising new therapeutic- https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/10/coronavirus-pharmac-….
The real problem is that we are actually approaching peak population immunity in the next few weeks as the big cohort get their second dose. By autumn next year, most of the first wave vaccine receivers (over 65s) will have massively waning immunity from the Pfizer vaccine, right when they need it most.
From a population point of view, we actually need a big spring/summer wave to start the build of natural immunity in our non-vulnerable population. Those who catch the virus and survive (unvaccinated or not) will get a big dollop of immunity that will carry them through next winter. helping to suppress the spread potential of the virus in early 2022. The armour of the vaccinated over 65s is in tip top shape right now, not rusty at all. This will change.
We are just delaying the inevitable because we are too morally weak to accept deaths in the population. The scientists we have are myopic blowhards who are unwilling to look at hard choices and tradeoffs. Their only policy is more of what hasn't worked so far.
Keith - this focuses on individual responsibility for getting vaccinated. But that needs to be accompanied by equitable access to vaccines. On Sunday, I found out there were only 5 vaccine centres open across the whole of Northland! That is not equitable access - for people too poor to afford to drive long distances or working long hours etc. Lots of other examples. Maori and Pacifika leaders and medical workers have been begging for better vaccine rollout to their communities. Govt has been too worried about Pakeha backlash to anything that can be portrayed as prioritising Maori and PI communities. Shame on us all if we let it rip among these communities.
All of this is politically difficult. It requires the Government to acknowledge that right now COVID19 is winning the battle and that they got some decisions wrong. With hindsight, Auckland went into Level 3 too soon and the existing regional boundaries have been too soft.
The prospect of the government admitting they got some decisions wrong is precisely zero. I didn't vote Labour, but I genuinely wished them well. National was-and remains-unelectable and i was glad to see the back of Peters and his motley crew, but the lack of competence and an increasing arrogance has saddened me.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.