By Chris Trotter*
In the season of Matariki, it is fitting to look both backwards and forwards. Like the mid-winter festivals of the northern hemisphere, Matariki marks the pivot-point between death and re-birth. It is a time for taking stock and gathering strength before setting forth on the next stage of our human journey.
Something to take away from the 12 months just passed, is that this country has a huge capacity for solidarity and national unity. A recent survey conducted under the auspices of the World Health Organisation (WHO) found that 75% of New Zealanders considered their country to be more united as a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic than it was before the virus struck. Those who described it as more divided represented just 23%. Only Singapore presented a more united population than New Zealand’s.
The comparison with other Western nations is stark. Only 10% of Americans believe their country has emerged more united as a result of Covid-19. Fully 88% of them believe the virus has left the United States more divided. In the United Kingdom the divided/united breakdown was 54:42. Considerably more positive were our Australian cousins. Across the Tasman, 59% felt more united, and 39% more divided. The median result of the nations polled was: More Divided, 61%; More United, 34%.
Given New Zealand’s high degree of national unity, the Labour Party’s spectacular election victory in 2020 was entirely predictable. Clearly, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s “Team of Five Million” metaphor resonated loudly with an electorate that had, indeed, come together to fight a common foe. The WHO poll should also serve as a timely reminder to all those who sneered at the PM’s messages of kindness and unity that it is they who are out-of-step with the popular mood – radically out-of-step.
Placed alongside the Colmar Brunton and Reid Research poll results, the WHO survey’s numbers, might also be telling us something else. It is just possible that the resilience of Labour-Green support, and the Opposition parties’ failure to fire, is a reflection of just how positive the experience of striving together collectively makes New Zealanders feel.
Good enough, apparently, for the many failures of the Sixth Labour Government to be forgiven. With tens-of-thousands on the waiting-list for a state house, and one-in-five Kiwi children being raised in poverty, many political observers were anticipating a steady decline in the Government’s poll numbers as the euphoria of the 2020 election began to wear off. In reality, Labour’s support is only marginally lower today than it was eight months ago. Nearly half of the electorate is not yet willing to shake off “Jacinda’s” political spell.
The implications of Labour’s unprecedented (at least under MMP) levels of popular support are intriguing. Could it be that Labour has found the same electoral sweet-spot that kept John Key’s National Party in the mid-to-high 40s for the best part of a decade? Not on the basis of the same policies, of course, but on the basis of Labour finding itself in the rare position of being able to satisfy “Middle New Zealand” that it possesses a political leader, and a political programme, that meet the needs of the moment. What’s more, those “needs” may encompass ideas and issues which, hitherto, have been regarded as far too radical for mainstream political parties to adopt.
Let’s just say, for the sake of argument, that Labour’s initial surge of national unity came, not with the onset of the pandemic, but earlier, in the wake of the Christchurch Mosque Shootings.
Let’s further say that Ardern’s handling of that tragedy – especially her inspired formulation “They Are Us” – had the effect of sensitising a majority of New Zealanders to the racially charged character of the “lone wolf” terrorist’s attacks; and to the need for New Zealanders to unite against the evils of racism and white supremacy.
Throw into the mix the extraordinary contrast (which did not go unnoticed by the rest of the world) between the conduct of the New Zealand Prime Minister, and the wink-wink, nudge-nudge tolerance displayed by the US President, Donald Trump, for America’s racists and white supremacists. There’s nothing Kiwis enjoy more than looking down on Americans from the high moral ground.
If this is what happened, then Ardern’s formidable “Team of Five Million” was already gathering itself in 2019. Her subsequent handling of the Covid-19 crisis further knitted it together into an electorally unbeatable cultural and political force.
For conservative New Zealand politicians this bodes very ill indeed. Their assumption has been that the Labour Government’s moves towards a bi-cultural Aotearoa, and their willingness to introduce draconian “Hate Speech” legislation, will alarm the roughly 440,000 centrist voters who switched sides electorally in order to reward Jacinda and her government for keeping them safe from Covid. Slap these political errors hard up against Labour’s failures in the fields of housing affordability, homelessness, climate change and child poverty, the conservatives argue, and Labour’s chances of winning in 2023 are slim to nil.
But what if “Middle New Zealand” actually feels proud of the moves the Ardern Government is making in relation to Maori and te Tiriti? What if it is right behind curbing the ability of racists and white supremacists to inflict harm on vulnerable communities? What if Jacinda has entered the same magical zone that John Key occupied for nearly 10 years? Where, no matter how bad things get, the electorate steadfastly refuses to blame her, or her party, and elects both of them over and over and over again?
That would mean that, instead of going up in the polls, National would continue (just like Labour between 2008 and 2017) to plumb new electoral depths. It would also mean that NZ First, far from riding back into power on a wave of public anxiety over Maori separatism and the antics of “Ngati Woke”, would remain well below the MMP threshold. Moreover, as National’s numbers dwindled, Act’s support (just like the Greens between 2008 and 2017) would continue to grow. Assuming David Seymour manages to avoid his own “Metiria Turei Moment”, and National fails to find its own “Jacinda”, life on the Right could get very interesting indeed.
The rising of the Matariki star-cluster should remind us all that life, like the Koru, is an expanding spiral. Though every year we pass the same point, we never return to the same place. In continuity there is also change. The heavens tell us where we are, but they cannot tell us what to do. The successes and failures of human-beings are their own to make. The National Party would be most unwise to assume that yesterday’s defeats and tomorrow’s victories are made of the same stuff.
*Chris Trotter has been writing and commenting professionally about New Zealand politics for more than 30 years. He writes a weekly column for interest.co.nz. His work may also be found at http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com.
91 Comments
I think that the support that Labor enjoys is because they are the marginally best of a bad bunch. From comments I read here there would be a lot of support for a party that meaningfully addressed housing and looked after the interests of the average Kiwi. National are just a bunch of untrustworthy slime-balls who are only out to look after the uber rich and foreign interests and labor are just full of meaningless rhetoric and incapable of producing any results. Re housing, Labor are just doing enough to appear to be doing something. Megan Woods said on the Nation that she could not see the house price to income ratio falling below 6? A whole lot of young Kiwis would be best advised to leave the country right now and forget NZ because they will never afford to buy a home here. Labor can waste money on all sorts of stupid endeavors like the $700 million cycle bridge or heaven knows how much on motel accommodation for the homeless at the stroke of a pen; but when when it comes to tackling housing head on, well, very tepid and indirect.
I think that a party that dedicated itself to producing affordable houses would find itself in a very powerful position.
Spot on Chris. The problem is that National, despite suffering a major setback in the 2020 elections, are harping on with the same set of outdated, trickle-down economic policies.
Their risk-averse counter to Ardern's failure to deliver on much-needed socioeconomic reforms is to bring about no reforms at all and reverse whatever has been done so far.
"If you don’t try at anything, you can’t fail" - Judith Collins
Think the best way to argue this comparison is from the negative. During the Key terms of government Labour as opposition were dismal going on pathetic. Hard to imagine that National could, in the same position, up that but they have, and what’s more done so, with flying colours. The Westminster parliamentary system is adversarial, it requires strong debate in the interests of democracy. If first National and now Labour are in so called sweet spots, it is mostly because the luxury of that status has been gifted to them.
I watched that interview, it was a clown show. There is no plan to bring down the cost of housing whatsoever. Period. Their solution is just to build cheaper, smaller, nastier dog-boxes so that the poors still have something to prostitute themselves to the banks for life over. When the interviewer asked Jabba why kiwis renting in New Zealand shouldn't just move to Australia the best that she could come up with was some drivel about where people "belong" and that she isn't leaving.
Reading between the lines their vision for the future of this country doesn't contain an ounce of aspiration. Just row upon row of slums to cater for the "population growth" that was supposed to be good for us.
It's hard to belong anywhere when it's so hard to get a roof over your head and you have to live far from friends and family. If you don't already have a property you don't really belong here and in Australia you can at least save a lot more than here.
NZ is for asset holders not income earners. I feel like that could be a slogan in a future protest if there ever is one.
The media play a huge part in this. The Government basically gets no scrutiny and everyone treats the novelty PM with kid gloves. When was the last time she was put under the blowtorch in a live interview? Not going to happen, which is a shame as this Govt. has screwed up pretty much everything they have touched.
Hate speech.
Another lazy attempt to fix something. Just ban it and say we've done our bit.
Personally, I'd rather know upfront that somebody 'hated me'. Then there is an opportunity to engage, to propose a different lens to look through.
I don't want somebody to like me because they were threatened against not liking me.
So this problem could be fixed with hate speech legislation?
I can still remember the first time I understood enough to feel proud of my Dad. When I overheard him telling somebody from the Salvation Army at the door collecting signatures on the Homosexual Law Reform Bill to 'F%$k right off'
I remember hearing an interview of a, if not the, senior law official in Northern Ireland after the peace accord was signed. The way that they dealt with hate speech and the like was to very publicly and factually address the the issues raised and put the record straight. Hate speech just ends up looking stupid. I think that the advantage of this approach would also be that those also peddling equally wrong politically correct propaganda would be forced to address the rubbish that they are pedaling. All round an honest facts based political landscape. Wouldn't that be a change.
Takeaway from the last few years has been that as a voter a democracy gives you different ways to achieve much the same outcome. Labour came to power because National had failed to address ever more acute and urgent issues like housing affordability, child poverty and infrastructure underinvestment. No doubt National will come to power because Labour fail to address ever more acute and urgent issues like housing affordability, child poverty and infrastructure underinvestment.
Is the problem politicians, is it the civil service or is it us? We need to have a bit of honesty because housing affordability, child poverty and infrastructure underinvestment are not problems that will fix themselves unfortunately.
Labour and National are polar opposites in terms of policy, the problem is the actual outcomes from either party appears to be the same. Cannot stand Labour, I literally have to change channel on the TV when they come on. What we got was what looked like the best of a bad bunch and the political arena still has not changed.
Runaway house prices have been with us for 15 years now, no one is blaming Labour for them, just disappointed they haven’t been able to stop it yet. The common view in my part of the world is that at least they are trying to fix the housing market with multiple efforts across different vectors (legislating higher density housing around transport hubs, realigning property investor tax benefits towards favoring new builds, offering billions to councils for infrastructure that enables new housing) rather than nationals 9 years in power where they did precisely zero, and failed to even acknowledge it as an issue.
Labour have been in power for four years. They were elected on a platform of cutting back immigration and sorting out housing. They got into power and changed their tune. They are getting blamed and rightly so.
They have no plan to reduce the cost of housing other than inflicting shrinkflation on us. [Personal abuse removed, Ed).
I have no interest in comparing Nat with Lab - nor should you. It's what the govt of the day is doing or rather, not doing, that matters.
The Nat v Lab is a distraction - which they both promote, as it enables them to avoid being held accountable by their own voters.
"It's what the govt of the day is doing or rather, not doing, that matters."
So true. I am sick of hearing.. "But National didn't fix..." yes, that is right, and that is exactly why they got turfed.
We need to turf both Major parties. It is clear neither is capable of.
A) Acting as democratic opposition, and
B) Coming up with an alternative while in opposition.
Our MPs have evolved into nothing more than a bunch of commenters on a website. Bag the other idea with no idea of their own.
We are going down a tribal rabbit hole, similar to the states. Although at least they defend their right to free speech.
A lot of the younger folks should rightly be humming this in their heads: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30NIQIGlHdw
I agree. At least they are trying to do something though I'm still a bit disturbed by Jacinda's comments about wanting house prices to keep rising but at a slower pace. I think we're going to see a big exodus to Australia for higher incomes and further lowering of birth rates for those that stay.
Rastus - I think you may be right, whilst Chris Trotter is correct at this point in time, many make decisions but implement them when the time is opportune. This is potentially a major issue for Labour/Greens as their ultra left wing policies grate on the average voter who is too busy surviving to protest and Govt assumes all is well. Hate speech is a further example of totally unexpected consequences occuring - by suppressing comment the real mood is unheard on and the opportune time for surprises is elections - local and national - and local elections may be an early warning given our 3 largest cities are left controlled and with large rate increases, unpopular expenditure on bike lanes whilst infrastructure critical items are neglected. A major shift at the local level will be a signal but I suspect the die is cast and nothing short of policy reversal and a big Mea Culpa will change things, for Labour/greens if I am correct.
what legacy will they leave?no change in the gap between the haves and havenots,plenty of spin but no houses for those that really need them,but incentives are only for investors to buy new builds.we urgently need the vaccine to make us safe but it is on the dripfeed.maybe they really are a transparent govt and we will see that they have just papered over the cracks.
Willis Eschenbach sets out the equation for the UK to meet its fossil fuel reduction targets:
Current UK fossil use = 1721 TWh/yr
Avg replacement generation needed=196 GW
Peak needed = 2*avg = 393 GW
Months to 2050 = 342
You'll need to build a 1.1 GW nuclear plant EVERY MONTH until 2050.
The same applies here. Big target no plan
Easy if only we could convert the hot air coming out of all the politicians into electricity. We all know the fossil fuel targets and carbon emissions targets are never going to be met, its simply not possible with an increasing world population. There would need to be a massive drop off in the standard of living and half the world returning to riding bicycles.
It is very difficult to judge how much real support the Government and its PM has from 'middle New Zealand when the two previously main centrist parties, National and NZ First, have largely been absent from the political arena since the election. NZ First has simply been absent. National is so tangled in its own internal wrangling it is completely unable to devise a set of alternative policies and strategies, even if it wanted to, and even less able to articulate their alternative approach to the electorate. At the moment the Labour Government is having a 'free hit'.
Not sure why you're trying to distinguish the observed "support in the polls" from some mystical "real support".
Or when Labour were in disarray under their rotating leadership and National was high in the polls, did you also think National didn't have "real support"?
Do you believe if the election were held tomorrow, that somehow National and NZFirst would get results in the high 30s or over 5% respectively? Because if not, then the polling result they get at the moment is literally the 'real support' they have.
Kevin. Yes, your 'free hit' observation is an apt metaphor. Ardern remains popular despite her government's desperate incompetence at delivery. A powerful propaganda machine aided by a largely subverted media work together to disguise its deep flaws from the easily impressionable but the simple fact is that even those who see through these deceptions have nowhere else to go. Trotter performs one of his trademark wind ups by proposing that results of a national unity survey run by the WHO somehow imply a wholehearted embracing of Ardern's progressive social agenda. When he is well aware it does nothing of the sort. It is a snapshot of public attitudes at time when a nation was propagandised by a campaign of fear mongering combined with messianic saviourism.
I can only speak for myself, my friends, as well as my children and their friends. My vote went to Labour in the last election (mainly because of their Covid response). My elderly friends (no investment properties) are being squeezed by the low term deposit rates and high inflation. My children and their friends are talking of heading to OZ as any hope they had of buying homes in NZ has disappeared. This time around, it will be ANYTHING BUT Labour as under their watch, hard working (middle income) Kiwis, trying to save for a better life, are being sidelined. I've had enough of their endless reviews, lots of woke talk and little action.
Edward - I'm hearing exactly the same things. I'm actually shocked how quickly the tide has turned on the government. I haven't heard anything good about Labour from any friends, colleagues or family since early March. Young ones are furious over housing inaction, Boomers are furious over new taxes, the public service is furious over wage freezes, farmers are furious over the EV car rebates, small business are furious over the lack of employees. Nobody thinks they will get the job done on the health shakeup or the "proposed redundancy scheme" and judging by the letters to the dominion in the last week nobody thinks changing the country's name is a good thing either. Even Covid which was the government's saviour- people are nervous about the poor vaccination rate and the Wellington issue this week and are blaming the government for inaction. The general consensus is labour are not governing for New Zealand but only to minority groups.
Yes but what the hell is the alternative? This is a very serious political pickle for NZ. National cannot even present themselves as an effective opposition. Instead still just a sprawling spoiling party of infighting and backstabbing. Amongst that in parliament the only cohesive and organised measure of opposition is coming from David Seymour and ACT. At least they know that their duty is to persist in searching and researched questions of the government in and outside of parliament. National, you ain’t got no credibility, you ain’t got any credentials much either.
Maybe is this more Chris hallucinating.
There is an alternative view that also fits the fact of events.
https://www.spectator.com.au/2021/06/maorification-of-smiling-zombies/
Maorification of smiling zombies
Labour is remaking New Zealand in its own image
Karl du Fresne
New Zealanders returning after a few years abroad might wonder whether they’ve blundered into a parallel universe. A government that is pitifully thin on ministerial ability and experience is busy re-inventing the wheel, and doing it at such speed that the public has barely had time to catch its breath. To quote one seasoned political observer: ‘It seems like a hostile takeover of our country is underway and most people feel powerless to do anything about it’.
The most visible change might crudely be described as Maorification, much of it aggressively driven by activists of mixed Maori and European descent who appear to have disowned their problematic white colonial lineage. Self-identifying as Maori not only taps into a fashionable culture of grievance and victimism but enables them to exercise power and influence that would otherwise not be available to them.
john key was in a league of his own but tony blair also lasted three terms before his new labour became old hat,dont think our present govt has the legs for three.come next election many voters will feel that they have fallen behind instead of getting ahead and boot them into touch.
Aye 4 terms, fair enough assessment of the status quo. But the reason for that is the sad reality that there ain’t much about on hand likely to oust them. The whole political landscape in NZ has been warped and skewed by both systemic and moral failures in the standard in politics and those elected. People really need to sit down and think about a situation which is thus so dire, ie if the present government is viewed as being both inadequate and unrepresentative, then what the hell is to be done if the alternative is worse. In other words how did NZ ever get itself into such a diabolical dilemma in terms of government.
To date; $65b spent of the $100b "Bailout" QE money and we still have 22,000 people living in motels at a rate of $900k per week. Poverty too is sustained at the same level as it was in 2017. Housing & Homelessness, well we all know that there is no change there. On the other hand; there have been lots and lots of policy written and spending allocation since 2017 but nothing substantial has materialised for any of this.
Covid is something that we all have to accept is here for at least the rest of the decade so we're just going to have to live with and adapt too.
I'm bored with the current government, the novelty has worn off.
Labour is great at talking the talk but when they have to deliver well lets just not even try to deliver just keep talking up more fairytales as they know the majority of voters have one week memory spans and that is the problem.
National just need to find a likeable person to spout out the same.
Disappointing; this article and the current Government's performance. Of late I have particularly enjoyed CT's articles, but this one I struggle to identify what he is trying to say other than JA has captured the heart of the unthinking masses while she builds in separatism, and increased dependency. something that I felt was fairly obvious.
As to "middle NZ"; they are being bombarded by MSM articles on the price of houses, of the young being denied the opportunity to buy into their own home for a number of reasons, and (today $100 M) how much the Government has spent on emergency housing recently. If they don't get the message that this government is failing big time, and not just getting ahead, but treading water is getting a lot harder, and that they need to come to the next election with something very substantial, then they really do deserve what they get.
And of course we have to wait until the next election, because there is no other way to kick the current crowd out.
The Motel cost is horrendous. Often the 'mother' will get two units....there's $3k per week. Add on the benefit and the cost is about $200k per annum.
A decent number of these people are there because they are terrible tenants. Others because they prefer it to living at home.
Valentines Rotorua love it.
But we can't say it can we.
I spent several days in Rotorua over 2 successive weeks attending conferences. 2 things really stood out. Firstly the number of people who looked unemployable wandering about, and the general quietness of the place. One restaurant owner identified the big issues for her as reduced tourism and the inability to find staff. She had had nothing but bad experiences with recent employees (late, unreliable and incapable of performing).
NZ has become a nation of welfare dependents of working age. Further, due to the cost of housing/rent they now require accommodation grants or HNZ stock. This dynamic won't change and is going to put an irrecoverable strain on the country. But hey 'We've got this team of 5-million." Rastus, a lot of people see it and are too frightened to speak and be labelled as 1) racist, 2) beneficiary basher, 3) privileged boomer or some other derivative. Christ I hate Labour and the Greens. Peters is a treacherous turncoat and seeing him marginalized had some reward, National have imploded and Act is a one-horse pony show.
Nevertheless, Peters may be useful:
https://democracyproject.nz/2021/06/25/graham-adams-winston-peters-is-b…
They have only the vaguest nation of what is or is not hate speech. Faafoi's comically fumbling attempts yesterday to respond to media request for clarity have now been trumped by a hopelessly confused Ardern compounding his mess. To the point where she has openly been accused by news hub of misleading the nation about the intent of the proposed law change. Trouble at mill.
I can only assume by all the 'hate speech' acceptance and anti community wellbeing sentiment in these comments that the readers of this forum are neoliberal right whinges scared of be ostracised by their fellow man for being offensive to minorities. The typical outspoken greedy whiner.
Hate speech is speech that causes / leads to social disturbance. History books are full of examples of brave people willing to loudly argue against the status quo; they started arguments that led to trouble. The anti-slavery movement 200 years ago, votes for women in most countries 100 years ago, allowing Catholics to enter university, etc. Today if you believe abortion is murder and you stand up and say so - that could be hate speech but only if you are persuasive. Or like Yuval Harari you claim with scientific evidence that all mammals suffer when the mother is separated from the child - not just all humans but all mammals - he may be prosecuted for hating milk drinkers.
To be fair if you put in place meaningful housing reforms, reduce the financial risk from a collapse, reduce the gains to allow affordable housing and ensure the right for housing for the poor then those commenters will likely claim discrimination and hate speech against them while they loudly proclaim all poor people must be drug dealers and abusers. Path of the course beneficiary bashing is a national sport in NZ even though most beneficiaries are now very wealthy elderly and even with hate speech laws those commenters will still openly discriminate against people based on colour, creed, age, ability, marital status, gender etc.
Trouble is the discrimination not the speech. The speech was a open invitation to take them to the human rights and employment courts; driving it underground makes the standard of proof harder for those discriminated against. Very easy to take a case if you have been denied housing due to a no Indians, no cripples or no unmarried women with children message or been told you are too old for a job. Much harder when told other applicants were chosen without reason and then see the job or place re-advertised soon after. I had a property manager once ask me for a reference for a guy and they were most concerned about whether he would ever cook in the place. That confused me at first; shouldn't all people cook in their homes, why ask or be concerned... it took a while but the leading questions made me realise they wanted to find a way to discriminate because he had a Sri Lankan name (but was of UK origin). It was disturbing that. A good chef always has a cleaner kitchen and sharp knives as my partner would say. Plus UK cuisine always tended to follow NZ anyway... With a pie being a delicacy. But surely discriminating against a name or ethnicity? With the basis of their logic to discourage cooking in a home? Weird. I would like to see what the cooking skills of most property managers would be, I could guarantee most would not be up to decent quality.
Survival in Politics and Government is always a question of expectation vs performance.
Without any expectation from the public, JA was given two opportunities to prove herself and she has done very well.
Has this dampened expectations on other issues ? May be not. But these expectations have been suppressed with the conitnuing evolving of Covid scene, which is the primary focus of the government and the governed now. The Wolf has not gone away.
So, JA has time on her side for the time being. (pun intended).
Housing is a massive screw up, one cannot reasonably expect one person or one government to solve it for everyone. It is the national psyche that has to change. Same with reducing the attractiveness of Houses as a primary investment. Labour has not yet started on these yet.
National Party is a different beast, focussed on the welfare of the Few. ACT is throwing tantrums as always and will continue. Greens are still finding themselves. NZ First can be reinvented, but they need Winston to go away.
May be the time of Maori or their political prominence has come, after so many decades ? Why begrudge that ?
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