By Alex Tarrant
National has won 46% of the vote and is in pole position to negotiate with Kingmaker Winston Peters, although the Labour-Greens grouping still has a chance to form a government with New Zealand First.
With 99% of the votes counted, Labour had returned 35.8% and the Greens 5.8%. New Zealand First was sitting on 7.5%.
The Maori Party is out of Parliament, ACT returned David Seymour through Epsom - although he looks to be out in the wilderness now - and TOP missed out on the 5% threshold.
National Party leader Bill English said discussions would take place with Peters in the next few days. He said talks would be conducted on a basis of respect with Peters. He noted how NZ First had a number of predictable policies, but that they'd also announced a lot of positions over the campaign.
Meanwhile, the Left's optimism was being held up by Green Party leader James Shaw on election night. He told supporters that New Zealanders had voted for change by giving the three Opposition parties a majority - counting Peters in the tent.
Labour leader Jacinda Ardern acknowledged English's higher vote. Despite looking more dejected than Shaw, she wasn't admiting defeat, saying that under MMP, it was now up to others to decide the make up of the next government - ie. Peters.
Our coverage from the evening is below.
Election 2017:
11:35: English is looking pretty happy. Two arms in the air as he gets up on the stage.
He says voters have given National the responsibility to form a stable government. Notes they've got more than 10% above Labour and more seats than Labour and Greens combined.
Then what we've been waiting for: He notes neither National nor Labour can form a government on their own. English says he wants to acknowledge the performance of Winston Peters and New Zealand First. Says the voters of New Zealand have give NZF a role in forming the next government.
English says they'll have talks with Peters over the next few days. But he says there's no rush.
11:00pm: Ardern talking to Labour party faithfull. She says she's called Bill English to acknowledge National has won the largest party vote. But says the result isn't known tonight. MMP means others will decide the make up of the government. She can't predict what decisions other leaders will make. Says she'll work with any party who shares vision to change New Zealand.
Interestingly, she raises when she met the families of the Pike River men - was this partly a call out to Peters?
It sounds like she'll be sticking around regardless.
The crowd I'm watching with are calling this 'the Tinder result' - which way will Winston swipe?
10:40pm: James Shaw is looking up. Addressing the Greens' campaign night, he says he's happy at the Greens' result. Says that the three Opposition parties command a majority together - and still will once the special and overseas votes come in. "New Zealanders have voted for change," he says.
He is going to speak with Jacinda Ardern tomorrow to sort things out. He also sends a message to Winston Peters: They agree on climate change and new railways everywhere, and finding ways to fix New Zealand's low productivity.
Shaw is being positive. Ardern when she left her house sounded defensive.
10:30pm: 90% of the vote is counted:
10:25pm: Te Ururoa Flavell looks shattered. The Maori Party are out - no electorate seats and a party vote just above 1%. He says the tide has turned and that the Maori Party is now at a crutch point.
Meanwhile, Peters is back behind in Northland.
10:10pm: Ardern says she hoped for better. When asked if she'll be PM, she replies that in an MMP environment it will be others who decide that. She hasn't spoken to Winston Peters tonight - and doesn't think that these conversations will happen for a while yet.
Here is the count at 85%:
10:00pm: Winston Peters has just spoken in Russell before catching the ferry back to Paihia. He says that on current numbers it looks like NZ First will hold the "balance of political responsibility" when the results are all in. He says NZF will not rush its decision on who it might go with - not today nor tomorrow - and that he needs to talk to his caucus and board.
He says NZF doesn't hold all the cards, but that they do hold some. Says New Zealand First will make its decision based on the interests of all New Zealanders, not just the party. He says if the results don't change between now and 12 October, then the decision should be made by then.
Then an interesting comment. He pleads with his caucus to not say anything out of line to the media - "don't make comments that will embarass the party."
"All roads lead to Russell."
Then suddenly, Peters has got ahead in Northland as well.
9:45pm: Labour is at risk of not being able to form a government with New Zealand First and the Greens. At 70% of the vote counted, Labour is on 45 seats, NZF at 9, and the Greens tracking at 7 seats - giving the required 61. However, that's been tracking down from earlier in the night:
9:30pm: The results are really coming in now - we're at 60%. New Zealand First is Kingmaker, the Greens are tracking down, and the Maori Party is looking like missing out completely. ACT doesn't look like getting a second MP in on the coat-tails of David Seymour:
9:20: Keep an eye on the Greens.
They're tracking down as the votes come in. Below 6% now.
9:15pm: Jeanette Fitzsimons isn't looking too excited either. But she's looking at the silver linings - says everyone's talking about clean rivers, child poverty and climate change - at least...
At the moment a key number for Labour is whether New Zealand First ends up in front of the Greens - at the moment it looks like it. The thinking is Winston would be more likely to talk to Ardern if NZF is the second biggest party in a Lab-NZF-Greens bloc.
9:10pm: 45% counted.
9:00pm: 40% of the vote.
8:50pm: Here we are at 35% of the vote counted:
8:40pm: On current counts, the Maori Party is missing out - they're not ahead in any of the Maori seats. Michele Boag says if the Maori Party don't get in, then this will make it easier for NZ First to go with National.
Peter Dunne is talking about Bill English potentially calling the Greens, as a way to play off Winston Peters. Mike Williams says that's fanciful. I've been trying to get out of Bill English whether he'd check in with James Shaw after the result is known as an alternative to Winston - he's not been answering over the last few days whenever it's asked. Says it's the Greens who have ruled themselves out...
Here we are at 30% of the vote counted:
Here we are with 30% of the vote
8:32pm: Matt McCarten is not looking too happy on TVNZ. Phil Twyford has just been on, saying he would have hoped Labour was higher than the 36% they're at, but that it's still early days.
Earlier, New Zealand First's Shane Jones was on. He wasn't letting anything out in terms of who NZF might go with - they're in Kingmaker position at the moment.
8:25pm: 25% of the vote counted.
8:15pm: Gareth Morgan has just done the interview rounds. On Newshub he predicted a landslide for National, I'm told. I was watching TVNZ. He said he was relieved that the campaign was over. He had hoped for a higher vote than the 2% TOP is tracking for, but is happy that they've challenged the incumbents.
He then launches into one about home ownership. The main thing is that we have a generation of New Zealanders that are making their wealth out of property through a tax break, he says. These people - himself included - are screwing younger generations. Until we change this. we run the risk that the younger generations now will be worse off than their parents for the first time in New Zealand.
Morgan is asked whether he'll lead TOP after the election - he's not sure - although he says TOP will still exist, he says.
8:05pm: Here are some key electorates:
Winston Peters is behind in Northland, with 8% of that electorate's votes counted. If he does lose the seat, New Zealand First needs 5% - at the moment they're looking at above 7%.
And in Epsom, David Seymour is up. This is one where there was talk of Labour and Greens voters ticking Paul Goldsmith...
8:00pm: 20% of the vote counted:
7:42pm: Here we are at 15% of the vote counted.
This is all happening very quickly. Steven Joyce is on the RNZ feed - saying he's naturally nervous and a little bit hesitant to put too much emphasis on the initial counts. He's asked about criticism that he's run a negative campaign with misinformation about Labour's policies, and "absolutely" refutes it.
No Maori Party electorate candidate is ahead at this point. This could be interesting if they don't win one...
7:37pm: TVNZ's Corin Dann says his statistician says he doesn't reckon the early-rural rule will apply so much this time around.
7:30pm: Here we are at 10% of the vote counted:
We usually get rural booths in first, so National is always generally ahead this early. Interestingly though, Labour's Tamati Coffey is ahead of Te Ururoa Flavell in Waiariki early on. This is a huge seat for the Maori Party. If they lose this, then they're relying on Te Tai Hauauru to get back in.
7:15pm: Winston Peters has just been on TVNZ. He says it's been an exhausting campaign, although he's had a nice day, he says. Asked whether he's confident, he's not taking anything for granted. Jessica Mutch asks him whether he'll keep us waiting if he is Kingmaker, he gets his usual bluster up. "I never did," he says. (No yaght this time around then?)
The writs aren't in until 12 October, he says, so there's no use allowing for any mistakes there, he says.
The other leaders are all keeping quiet until we know the result - Bill English has tweeted a video with him and a spagetti pizza.
7pm: Welcome. Well that was quite a campaign. It could go either way. Will it be National or Labour who come out on top? Will Winston Peters be Kingmaker? Can the Greens keep their heads above water? Will ACT and the Maori Party have any say in the next government? And how will Gareth Morgan's TOP go?
We're expecting a big clue before 8:30pm, as the advance voting stats come in - possibly as early as 7:30pm. This is for those who had already enrolled, then voted early - counting began at 9am. People who enrolled and voted at the same time will come in with the special votes, which come in with the overseas ballots on 7 October. The Electoral Commission is expecting results from 50% of voting places to be in by 10pm, and 100% by 11:30pm. However, we might know the outcome well before that, due to the numbers of early votes exceeding expectations.
Feel free to leave comments in the section below.
256 Comments
... do you want a cow pat on the head , Henry ? ... the Maori Party are wearing them right now ... ouch !
Here's a thought though : Why do we have the MMP threshold for a party set so high at 5 % ? ... after all these years , even the Greens flirted with falling below that figure ....
... I'd like to see it reduced to 2 % !
How much better would the next three years be if Gareth Morgan's TOP party had 2 members in the parliament .... they were the only group who kept their electioneering strictly on course , talking up their policies , talking up solutions to current issues ... even the mighty NZ Labour party went into this election with no policy on taxation ... none ... yet tiny little TOP had their's spelt out and costed to the n'th degree ...
Well done , TOP !
Had to laugh at the intro. All warm fuzzies about how Bill is surrounded by friends, family and staff then casually mention Jacinda is home and nervously waiting on the results. A bit of impartiality would be nice.
Good on Winnie for slapping that over eager reporter down, too :)
I fit more on the right wing, and voted as such.
But I must say it has been good to see the renewed strength that Jacinda has given the Labour party.
Even if she is not prime minister when the dust settles, I hope she would do a good job of keeping the government honest.
She has done well to provoke more people to be interested in politics too, I'm betting that the number of votes cast is a lot higher than last year and it will be interesting to see if that translates to success for the Labour party.
If 1.2 mln people voted early, and we are now just at over 1.1 mln votes counted, and the 46/36 N/L share holds for the next 100K votes counted, that must mean that early voting favours N. And that the hoped-for 'youth-quake' won't pay off for L/G this time around.
Why won't young people vote? We all talk about housing affordability being a key frustration for them but maybe it isn't. Strange. Then again, housing affordability is almost exclusively an AKL issue, so perhaps young people in the rest of the country are happy that they can afford a house and they are supporting the status quo by voting N or not bothering.
We need to find a way to fix the 'not bothering' attitude.
Then again, 'young people' don't stay young. In one or two election cycles, they are 'normal' voters, voting in a largely conservative pattern, it seems. And voting with 'normal' engagement.
The chance any party can get them when they are 18-25 is fleeting. A lot of work to do on youth engagement.
looking at the stats from last election it was 23.23% did not vote or 729560 people that did not vote. a big percentage were people under 30, it will be interesting to seen if the stats change or are the same this time
http://www.elections.org.nz/events/2014-general-election/election-resul…
as an aside that means we have a minority of eligible voters determine who should lead us, we can only assume those that dont vote would have voted as per the final results and it would not have changed much, BUT i have sene stats that show younger people vote more to the left and as people age they start to go right
Can you believe it - The Youth-Quake and Labour's self-sabotage
Students being interviewed in Dunedin, having enthusiastically attended the Youth-quake rallies say they do not want free tertiary education and voted National
Labour mis-read that one completely and put so much effort into it
Winston will compromise and accept a rail link however it would be amusing to see Auckland port area replaced by restaurants and apartments. Manufacturing would follow the port and move north and/or south and Auckland will become a wasteland of ticky tacky houses and fine dining restaurants.
Whatever happens Northland is in for a prosperous future.
That's funny you say that. I had been thinking if my company was successful I would love Auckland as base. But with costs it would be better to move south.
Friend is similar in London, he moved from Chancery Lane to Surrey, said best decision he's ever made. Reduced stress levels by a large amount.
Winston still behind in Northland. RNZ panel talking up Labour still being in it. I wonder though if National holds its current position, whether Labour has the moral authority to try to form a government? Duncan Garner reckons Greens could/should consider going with the Nats.
I voted for him. If its all WinstonFirst and not NZFirst he's dead to me. He might as well not go up for election next time. I've swung from National because of immigration and property prices. So if its more of the same old might as well voted for Labour. I want Winston to be a conscience.
Many voters did exactly this, voted for NZF because they're sick of the overseas student scam where they come in, study for a diploma (which they're guaranteed to pass), get a job at a service station and then get permanent residency. Plus the foreign buyers and the dirty dairying.
All the while Joyce and English denying it with smirks on their faces. Just hope Winston isn't in it for Winston and actually does put the country first and deals with these rorts.
It looks like the total number of votes cast will be 2,215,000. Given that there were 3,252,269 enrolled, that must mean that more than 1 mln enrolled people didn't bother to vote ? Surely it can't be that high ? Only 68% participation ? Yikes, that is low. Certainly no 'youth-quake'. Amazing (and not in a good way).
That is a massive failure of get-out-the-vote efforts.
... in less than one year , the TOP party came out with an amazing array of policies ... congrats to Gareth and his team ...
NZ Labour have had 9 years polishing the opposition benches ... and still come into this election with no coherent tax policy .... how utterly ridiculous is that !
You would have to think the majority would. It's pretty damming when the two "Maori" parties Maori and Mana can't win a single seat in their own electorates.
The good thing with MMP is that it represents minorities well (although could do better by dropping the threshold a bit). Extra targeted seats should not be required.
Utterly, utterly agree, this vote should be for those on the Maori roll only. As long as there are people in this country who have no intention of making themselves familiar with Maori Kaupapa and Tikanga Maori, as long as there are people in this country who do not believe in righting historical wrongs, then specific Maori representation will be required in this country.
As a pakeha, if the foolish decision is made to do this and allow all to vote on it, the I declare here and now that I will in favour of their retention
Very good point. As some one of Maori descent I just cannot understand why each tribe has not put together a party to go in each electorate.
For example - Ngai Tahu could go from an outside lobbyist to having an MP in the mix if they only stood someone in Te Tai Tonga.
I will say it until I am blue in the face, MMP is simply not understood in this country.
"Maori would be the losers."
There were something like 25 Maori MPs (http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/293124/year-of-mixed-fortunes-for-maori-mps) in Parliament before last night's election.
It appears to be a similar number today, although the party spread is clearly different.
That's about 1/5 of the total make up of Parliament.
Maori are very well represented. To the point, it is clear that simple political representation is not fixing the issues.
Until we own up to our own problems and take responsibility for them, we won't fix anything, no matter how many MPs are in Parliament.
2011 was when national changed the rules that overseas investors could buy existing homes and 2014 it was full speed. 2017 overseas investors have been stopped and the market has been dropping under national for over 6 months . And depts through the roof. Housing is going to be completely different to 2011 and 2014. There’s even a good chance overseas investors will leave in mass . Then there’s negative peters to overseas money. Yes 2017 will be different alright
Smokey. Yeah next week everyone selling there house will put it up by 20%. Only thing is they’ll have to sneak a few $100k to the FHBers to buy it because the banks won’t give them the money. The focks with the expensive houses trying to sell might pay to post half a million to china so they can buy
... he made up the mother-of-all lies ... the $ 11.7 billion " hole " in Labour's budget ... and stuck with it ... and he got away with it ...
Jacinda's fault for muzzling her attack dogs , Kelvin & Robbo ... should've allowed them to let rip back at Joyce and Wild Bill .. the Gnats smear tactic worked beautifully for them ..
Sounds just like someone else...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/10/strong-and-stable-lead…
agreed -- about June next year - just after the tax cuts take effect! leaving Labour in a terrible choice of another U turn or admitting they will raise tax - Greens and NZ first already voted for them -
not a bad choice for BE - get a supply and confidence deal only with NZ first and do nothing radical until May - then force a new election
Too true. It's difficult to watch those at the bottom struggling at the expense of those who are in the comfort zone.
The maori party found out their voters have had enough.
If anything I should be a natural fit for the national party. Comfortable middle class. 6 figure income.
Even though I am not religious, ive always lived by the credo that there, but for the grace of god, go I.
It's a true measure of our humanity how we treat those less well off than ourselves.
Any government with Winston will be a vote for change.
With Natiinal stability will be a question mark as they hate each other and even if they marry will divorce soon as also their policies are pole apart.
Is this the change that Winston Peter campaigned for.
Wait and Watch
Well, if there is any honesty they will be. I think NZF voters will be very, very upset if they drop those two things as I think they might be 1 and 2 in importance for them.
Winston will be gone next election, maybe will not last the 3 years, he is looking very wheezy to me, and if NZF do not come up trumps with a number of policies, they, like the Maori Party will be consigned to history. The one that I, personally, will miss will be the Maori Party. Dr Lance O'Sullivan was going to join them next election.
At the end of the day national and labour lost. Nz first won. By the time peters is finished with them whoever he goes with will be shot down in flames. I’m not sure which would be better in a downturn because a downturn is coming whoever gets in. I think labour and Jacinda would be better of passing on this term and leave national and peters to it because they’d then be very strong for the next election and somehow I think Jacinda is thinking that way. With the way the economy is tracking labour should stay away from it and look so much better specially because she’s only just there new leader but she’s had a monster of support. Jacinda tell peters on ya bike. Think of the future. Let them try and fix this mess specially with peters demands on overseas ownership, immigration. Affordability. National will be gutted . Theres a winner already. PETERS. And the party that goes with him comes second
"Let them try and fix this mess specially with peters demands on overseas ownership, immigration. Affordability."
If you think those things are only going to make the problems worse, you might be wrong about the problems. All the businesses that depend of bringing hordes of low skill, low wage labourers in to make their books balance need to come up with a new business plan, and any government that needs those same hordes to inflate GDP, because they've done bugger all to incentivise productive investment and increased productivity, and who depend on foreign dollars (with strings attached) to keep the faux-economy plodding along, needs to come up with a new plan for governance.
While he's at it, WP should demand revised residency and voting regulations.
Inthecentre - enlighten me as I think that's typical Labour hype - I haven't heard one progressive peice of thinking from Labour throughout the whole campaign other than raising taxes and spending - progressive thinking from Southern Europe, and experts in how to implode an economy and achieve 50% youth unemployment. Whereas I do think the likes of English's programs to try and solve generational welfare and poverty are actually thinking outside of the box.
Peters may surprise by not joining the govt, but extending support as exchange for some of his policies to be implemented. This may be his swan song. He is good for the locals, seniors, etc. Unlike Trump he is a very experienced politician, been Minister before a few times. Not a fool, certainly.
So, what are the main reason NZF voters vote for them. I am guessing (as I am not one) that first and foremost is immigration numbers, which of National and Labour (and the Greens) have any agreement with NZF on that? I am also guessing that the next highest reason is sale of houses and land to foreigners, which of National and Labour (and the Greens) have any agreement with NZF on that?
I am sure Winnie will be very, very aware which of his policies he can safely dump, which ones he can negotiate on, and which ones are carved out in stone. Can you see the Nats conceding on either of the two issues above? Me either.
His policies are definitely more aligned with the left block.
Given the triumphal nature of bill English, where he could barely disguise his glee, how much of a come down would it be if Winston went with the other lot.
It came across to me that bill English basically implied that Winston could only really go with national.
I like labour and peters and think they’re better matched . I just think peters will go with national. And labour would be better of waiting for the next election because housing won’t do well over the next 3 years and the economy relies on it far to much. Add to that peters demands and they’re negative to housing and even tho I think in time lower house prices would be good the getting there won’t be
In my case, yes to the first paragraph. I don't care a whit about GST on 'basic foods' and other trivial stuff. And yes, it seems like these would be a hard sell for National since it would amount to a repudiation of everything they've (not) done about the Grand Rort that is recent immigration policy.
well... actually everyone has spoken and it is up to the politicians to decide which way to go .....the majority seems to have a clear direction , however there will be tweaking and corrections along the way and that is not a bad thing >>> two more weeks to go lol...
the majority of voters have not picked that, we have a MMP government and the majority of votes were not for national but lots of other parties.
i have said for months national does not have partners, they are a lone church,
i feel sorry for all those 70K TOP and maori party voters that have no voice to represent them
Out for the day and my phone’s battery died before results started coming in so am only now able to digest the results and comments. Pretty much as I thought in that Winston will ultmately decide who is PM and I expect it will take a few weeks until we have that certainty. I hope WP chooses National and equally hope that the next three years sees a shakeup in Nationals line up. They need to retire the likes of Smith, find an heir apparent for BE and work on the points that Adern chose to attack in the campaign. If she survives another 3 years as leader, then she’ll be wiser and more of a contender, albeit I wonder how much use relentless optimism is in opposition? It made Little look permanently angry.
On a personal front, being on this forum in the last few months has given me a desire to get more involved in politics. I’ll join the National Party as it’s ‘my tribe’ and I can best influence the direction of policy by being part of the machine rather than keyboard warrioring here. I’ll still visit here to see where thoughts are at. Kate, keep up the posts!
Can we get back to talking up Houses, Please.
And I do not mean the Houses of Parliament...I mean the Houses that Parliamentarians all own....
Rentals for 'Dear Leaders"
Nowt changed there...in this election. Seems like it never will.....Poor New Zealanders...back in the Dog House...The shite House and the Rental House....All change, no Change...
One rule for the workers, one rules for the Shirkers. And Land Bwankers one and all...Doesn't change one. thing.
50/50...do not count at all. Winnie the Poo, holds the balance ...in cheque.
MMP ...Best vote with yer feet...Sorry NZ.....Sorry State of Affairs. All change, no Change..
With Winnie able to go either way, that increases his negotiating power hugely. So he may be able to get immigration cut back, he may be able to ban foreigners from buying existing homes, he may be able to get the retirement age held constant.....I hope.....and moving the port to Whanga is a nice idea, much better than the blinkered Auckland centric study which would either require the biggest most massive stone breakwaters the world has ever seen off the west coast or conversely the most dredging that world has ever seen for the firth of Thames option.
My first time voting in NZ and as I only just became eligible to vote in September mine would have been a "special" vote.
2.41 million voted in 2014 and that included 300k special votes. So special votes were 14% of the total voting electorate 2014. Some are suggesting specials will be higher this time. So the current results are provisional. When are the final results confirmed? Or do parties just assume that the specials won't be significantly different enough to change anything?
As for the results. The NZ voter demographic shows the biggest age group to vote are 65-69 year olds. Followed by 60-64, followed by 70+, followed by 55-59. This age group have voted for their own interests unsurprisingly. They want financial security and Labour didn't do a great job of presenting that age group that. National created and led the narrative on economic stability and frankly, i'm surprised Labour did as well as they did.
However, if the economy does slow down or even contracts in the next few years, then that narrative might change.
the final numbers are confirmed on the 7th and normally favour the greens they will likely pick up another seat off national.
looking at the results so far
the number of votes for labour, the greens and NZ first are greater than last election, while national are down 130K.
Well it ended up all hanging with Winston Peters as predicted despite the usual suspects on this site saying he was dead & buried.
I predicted he would get close to 10% of the party vote which he was well short of but never the less he holds all the cards.
Are National regretting releasing his personal information on he super application.
There is a huge possibility of Winston going with Labour and the Greens, Shaw has already extended an olive branch.
delboy, and also, the NZ economy looks to be on the downturn, so with National in this term, they may well get to reap what they have sown. It would have been awful if Labour got in, shortly followed by the recession that they did not cause, and then get blamed for it in the voting populace eyes, who would not ever be enlightened of the context thanks to the shallowness of NZ MSM.
The people voted and majority by far voted for a National.
Getting up to nearly half the vote sends the country a message that they were not convinced by the BS that Jacinda was spitting out.
It would be just so wrong if the NZ government could be formed by 3 parties who performed so much inferior to National.
Would you really call that democracy?
MMP really needs to go as it is ridiculous every election where they have to grovel to each other to form governments.
Fat lady's not sung yet, special votes still to come. NZF are they left or right? Discount them from either side and you have National/Act 59 seats, Labour/Green 52 seats as they stand, maybe another 1-2 shift to add on after special and overseas votes are counted. IF that pans out like last time with 1 off National and you're looking at National/Act 58, Labour/Green 53 - that's pretty close in my book.
I partially agree with the sentiment, not your example - https://www.businessinsider.com.au/opinium-poll-support-for-a-second-br…
It’s extremely rare for any government to stop a downturn once it’s started. Did national stop the downturn in 2008. And this one is more targeted to nz. We made it. Depts and house prices are extremely high. Overseas seas investors are the key to this hole boom. Now there’s peters who is more in line with labour. The election is a disaster. In both cases house prices go down which in the long run will be good and if labour doesn’t get in with there very popular leader they look very good in 3 years and with a better starting point. The demand for housing might pickup a little in 3 years . The big question is how much do they drop with peters. Did you hear his speech and point. ALL NZERS. After thinking more about peters speech and the greens and Jacinda I’m not sure about the outcomes because she knows to well she’s only been in for 7 weeks so after 3 year downturn if she holds her party strong and I’m sure she will ,shes in for sure. 3 years of downturn with peters or wait. Labour’s in the best seat for a long future and young leader for sure. After those two speech’s I’m thinking 70/30 peters with labour but I hope not. Labour should be thinking 3 years of national with peters and that disaster then 9 years in. All tho 3 years of labour and peter in the end would be good for ALL NZERS so voting in 3 years you would think would still be positive for labour
30% dont vote, which is a large percentage, they have done surveys, biggest reason is cant get to or no time to vote, and now with earlier voting i cant find that as a valid reason anymore
The second biggest reason is a lack of interest in voting for 27% of non-voters, up from 21% in 2011. The biggest drivers of this result are ‘can't be bothered with politics or politicians’ at 9%, ‘can't be bothered voting’ at 8%, and ‘makes no difference who the government is’ at 6%.
If Maori had kept 7 seats then National has a 4th term no issue.....but they havent.
Overseas ownership ban is now a done deal, immigration tap is shut off, and state house building boost (alternative at lower end) are all now reality. Capital gains rocket booster just shut down. If you havent reached escape velocity for your debt payload gravity is about to take control.
Consider if Nat do not approve this...and you have a big pile of tax changes on top of that....very interesting couple of weeks while new govt is formed. Specials historically favour left/green which has little upside for National.
Has maori torpedoed the ponzi...?
If WP forms a coalition of the clueless with Labour and the Greens we will see the beginning of the end for small political parties and NZ First itself would be obliterated, in 20/20, as light Blue voters like my parents move back to National (they are upset at a Bolger decision which is why they vote WP, and they like the Goldcard, that’s how fickle some of WPs voters are). Perversely, I’d like to see it happen. I don’t want Adern to have time to learn how to lead in a safe environment. Let her deal with WP and the Greens right now. I want the loopy types to get power hungry and create a circus. I think we have some economic headwinds coming that will tar the parties in power.
WP Make my day. Let your ego get to you and create a coalition of the clueless that will allow National time to get a grip on power that will see me well into retirement age. Despite all of the MMP calculations, 46% of voters had enough sense to vote in one bloc and they will voice their thoughts one way or another. Wow this is exciting. Bring it on.
So nothing has really changed if you look at the numbers. Labour just grabbed the Maori seats and a few Greens seats and national lost a couple of percent to NZF and the others. Looks like a National NZF coalition to me without the need for ACT. Had National got just a few more percent they could have gone it alone. You can jump up a down all you like but basically half the country voted National.
Act should fold back into National for 2020. I thought Seymour debated well and has more to contribute. WP will be gone in 2020, so no problems there and a flush out of the more decrepit seniors like Smith will make room for him. I enjoyed listening to Marama Fox as well, albeit that voice is now gone.
Final tally after special vote predctied is Labour + Green 54 seats and National 56 seats and in worst scenario 53 seats and 57 seats.
In true sense Winston Peter is the King Maker. It is upto him to go for change or same old government who have lost the majority.
Winston won't be interested in the Greens.
Virtually a done deal between Winston and National. Winston will be in his comfort zone with the Nats.
Not ideal for National - but better than the alternative.
Bill English will be happy enough - and what a stellar performance from him during the last fortnight of the campaign. Nobody could doubt that.
Winnie lost his beloved electorate seat ( Northland ) to the Gnat's Matt King !
... as a very proud man , he will not be looking kindly upon Wild Bill's mob anytime soon ...
He won't mind the Greens , if they're shunted to the edge of Labour's plate ... so he can snuggle up to the red meat in the centre ...
congrats to chloe for making the parliament at 23, i enjoyed her debating with david Seymour and like all youth the rolling of the eyes, the hmmph, and calling him out as a liar and stop talking BS.
it was refreshing not watching two liars trying to outdo each other whilst keeping the straightest face and not showing any emotion like most political debates
I think the real winners in this election were small donors - individuals, many of whom donated across more than one of the opposition parties who won the majority on the night.
They collectively flipped the finger at the big money end of town.
I'm very proud about that.
Greon_mamba - I really disagree with that assumption, the election strongly suggests that the majority in fact didn't want a change as many were suggesting would happen in a tidal wave. Do you think that everyone that voted for say NZ First wanted to change the Govt ? I know a few work mates who were voting for NZF because they wanted him to have a coalition with National but one where immigration is forced lower.
If you are a voter wanting guaranteed change there was only two parties where that was going to happen, Labour and the Greens, but those two together fell well short of even National's vote alone. There could still be a left coalition including NZF but there will be many NZF voters who will be very disappointed with the result, which polling also shows of NZF voters preferences. The majority did not vote for change after 9 yrs which is highly unusual and a credit to the way the economy has been run through some pretty tough times globally and at home.
The Nats had the legacy of some dry powder left by labour when they did not run this country at full tilt economically, rightly or wrongly. Suggesting it was the Nats that pulled us through the GFC would be completely wrong as all they did was dipping into the ample reserves/capacity left by the previous government.
Now after 9 years of focusing on only making money, and neglecting everything else, its time for a re-balance, and that's what most voters want, as not voting for national, is a vote for change.
Look at the revenue and expenses during the last Labour Government period. It’s like your child earning his/her first pay and glowing with pride about not spending it all in the first week. Labour governed over a period so ebullient that the GFC had to happen. Luck was on their side that they didn’t have to manage through a GFC, strings of earthquakes and a dairy downturn.
You're hilarious: https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/government-debt
And god help us when the next one hits.
You can all but guarantee that debt will skyrocket, S&P will downgrade us, and the Cullen fund will be pillaged.
It will kill New Zealand.
All you people that think National can do no bad will learn the importance of putting money away for a rainy day.
Yeah but fortunately we have had a dynamic rock star economy for the past 9 years and not gorged ourselves on debt..... oh!
We've got assets that we can s......oh!
Fortunately our economy based on selling houses to each other and immigration is remarkably resilient and won't be affected by a global... oh!
Don’t stress. Play the long game. It’s better that WP is destroyed and the public sees what a coalition of the clueless does when in power. This is like watching your enemy marry your crazy cousin.
If I was BE I would publish exactly what WP asked for and then work on the right leaning members in NZ First for a waka jump. Cut the old goat off at the knees when he’s most vulnerable.
History does show that this can and indeed does happen. He will remember it happening, and perhaps this will sway his option to turn left rather than embrace that risk again. NZF LAB and GRN alliance does look like one of the least preferred options from this election but lets see what happens.
Immigration slowdown and overseas owner ban are probably the only two sure things at this point. Tax changes....watch this space.
Well done Bill English - got the job done. Didn't think he had it in him.
Labour again were woeful in their campaign delivery and messaging.
Greens need to focus more on environmentalism and actually live up to their name.
NZ First just keeps giving for Winston. I suspect with his conservative electorate he will go with National.
Bad night for the minor parties with discretionary votes being hoovered up by the major parties tight race.
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