Content supplied by RoyMorgan
In September support for a potential Labour/Greens coalition has increased to 48.5% (up 7% from mid-August 2017) now well ahead of incumbent National on 40% (down 2.5%).
- National remains (just) the most popular party with support of 40%, however this is a large drop of 7% since the 2014 Election which looks set to cost the party a chance of leading a new Government after next week's election.
- Labour's support has surged on the back of new Leader Jacinda Ardern to 39.5% - up 14.4% since the 2014 Election, and up 7% since mid-August just after Ardern became Leader.
- Greens support of 9% is down 1.7% since the Election, but unchanged on a month ago, just after former Leader Metiria Turei resigned her job in late July.
- The surge in support for Labour has come at the expense of New Zealand First with support down 2.7% from the election to 6% and now just above the 5% threshold for winning list seats. Support for New Zealand First has plunged by 5.5% from last month.
- Overall support for the governing National-led coalition was down 6.8% from the election to 42.5% with support for National’s coalition partners virtually unchanged: Maori Party on 2% (up 0.7%), Act NZ on 0.5% (down 0.2%) and United Future on 0% (down 0.2%) with long-time party leader Peter Dunne not recontesting his seat at this year’s election.
- Support for the parties currently outside Parliament was 3% led by new party The Opportunities Party (T.O.P.) unchanged on 2% with the Conservatives on 0.5% - down a significant 3.5% since the 2014 New Zealand Election.
2017 New Zealand Election Seats Projection
Labour (49 seats); Greens (11 seats) & Maori Party (2 seats): Total 62 seats cf. National (50 seats); NZ First (7 seats) & Act NZ (1 seat): Total 58 seats. See below for more detail.
On the eve of the 2014 New Zealand Election Roy Morgan projected a narrow win for the National/Maori Party/Act NZ/ United Future coalition on 63 seats cf. Labour/Greens/NZ First on 58 seats. The final result was 64 seats cf. 57 seats.
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating down in September
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating decreased slightly, down 2pts to 137pts in September with 62% of NZ electors (down 0.5% from August) saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ cf. 25% of NZ electors (up 1.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman of Roy Morgan Research, says the Maori Party’s positive reaction to new Labour Leader Jacinda Ardern looks to be decisive in an election finally balanced between Labour/Greens and National/NZ First/Act NZ:
“The momentum in New Zealand’s election campaign is clearly with the Labour Party led by new Leader Jacinda Ardern – and Labour on 39.5% - up 7% since early August are now virtually level with governing National on 40% - down 2.5% over the past month.
“However, the narrow gap between the major parties means the final outcome of the election will be decided by the second string parties – and it is here that Labour has a decisive edge.
“Labour’s natural allies the Greens have held steady on 9% over the past month following the resignation of former leader Metiria Turei while the vow by Labour Leader Jacinda Ardern to cut New Zealand’s net immigration by up to 30,000 appears to have significantly dented support for the traditionally anti-immigration New Zealand First – down 5.5% in a month to 6%.
“Today’s in-depth examination of the concerns of New Zealanders show electors continue to regard Poverty and the gap between rich and poor (16%) and the housing issues of House prices & Housing affordability (16%) and Housing shortages & Homelessness (10%) as the key issues the new Government needs to tackle.
“Ardern’s vow to tackle housing issues by removing ‘speculators unfair tax advantages’, ‘stopping foreign buyers who have no interest in New Zealand buying existing homes’, ‘getting on and building more houses’ – at least 10,000 extra houses a year and cutting New Zealand’s net annual immigration by up to 30,000 people per year address all the key issues and since becoming Leader Labour has taken support from National (down 3% since July), Greens (down 4.5%) and New Zealand First (down 2%).
“However despite this momentum, today’s final Roy Morgan New Zealand poll of the election shows the election result is likely to be tight with a Labour/Greens coalition needing Maori Party support to hold a clear majority in Parliament. Based on today’s figures a Labour/Greens/Maori Party coalition is projected to hold 62 seats in the 120 seat Parliament compared to 58 seats for National/New Zealand First/Act NZ.”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 866 electors during August 28 – September 10, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.
Projected 2017 New Zealand Election Seat Breakdown
| ELECTION RESULTS | National | Labour | Green Party |
NZ First |
Maori Party* |
Act NZ |
United Future |
Cons | Other | ||||||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |||||||
| 2005 NZ ELECTION | |||||||||||||||
| September 17, 2005 | 39.10 | 41.10 | 5.30 | 5.72 | 2.12 | 1.51 | 2.67 | n/a | 2.48 | ||||||
| SEATS | 48 | 50 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | n/a | 1 | ||||||
| 61-60 | |||||||||||||||
| 2008 NZ ELECTION | |||||||||||||||
| November 8, 2008 | 44.93 | 33.99 | 6.72 | 4.07 | 2.39 | 3.65 | 0.87 | n/a | 3.38 | ||||||
| SEATS | 58 | 43 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | n/a | 1 | ||||||
| 69-53 | |||||||||||||||
| 2011 NZ ELECTION | |||||||||||||||
| November 26, 2011 | 47.31 | 27.48 | 11.06 | 6.59 | 1.43 | 1.07 | 0.60 | 2.65 | 1.81 | ||||||
| SEATS | 59 | 34 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| 64-57 | |||||||||||||||
| 2014 NZ ELECTION | |||||||||||||||
| September 20, 2014 | 47.04 | 25.13 | 10.70 | 8.66 | 1.32 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 3.97 | 2.27 | ||||||
| SEATS | 60 | 32 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| 64-57 | |||||||||||||||
| ROY MORGAN NZ POLL | |||||||||||||||
| Aug 28 – Sep 10, 2017 | 40 | 39.5 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | ||||||
| PROJECTED SEATS: | 50 | 49 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| 62-58 | |||||||||||||||
| GOVERNING COALITIONS: | LABOUR | NATIONAL | |||||||||||||
For full release, see here.
120 Comments
It's going to be an interesting election all right.
Regardless of the swing, the last 2-3 polls have showed one thing. National cannot govern, they neither have the votes nor the ability to form a coalition (without greens).
So the question is how stable will the opposition coalition be.
Is it possible we see a Labour led coalition on election day, only to have a National led minority Government a few weeks/months later?
MMP was supposed to change that but has it really, greens are a extension of labour now no longer in house just like ACT are an extension of national.
once WP goes i expect NZF to disappear within 3 elections
the only winners from MMP have been the maori party which has led to more maori in parliament than ever before
"100 Seats, Pure party vote, no electorates. 1% threshold." - not MPP , but rather "pure" Proportional . They had in a few places , most notably in Italy for decades after the war . Was a complete disaster ( hardly any government lasted a single year .. ).
"No ruling coalition as such rather an elected MP," - a purely theoretical construct ; never existed or will exist anywhere - not to say it would not be good in theory - but simply impossible in practice.
The two main parties are the only parties that want to genuinely govern
The smaller parties merely wish to gain just enough power to get some of their policies through but not carry the burden of full governance of the country
Same applies in USA and other parts of the world
Winston Peters would have to be NZs classic example of a politician who could have even been PM when he was with National but is happiest just being a kingmaker drinking wine & going to the races & being minister of foreign affairs. Smart guy but where's the drive to rule ? Missing
Hi Noncents,
I can answer your question.......
A Labour/Greens coalition after the election would be a disaster - the last word in political (and economic) instability.
Imagine something the equivalent of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of a few years ago. Would you seriously want Labour/Greens at the helm? An absolute disaster that would be.
I agree with you. A Labour/Greens coalition would have a very short shelf-life.
TTP
It's not quite that clear cut.
NZ is such a small fish in a big ocean, I think we would have got through the GFC the same regardless of who did what and when.
What I see happening is the same as the USA. A vote for change, then the mass regret as everyone realises the change was merely in the name of the party. The system stays the same.
Trump is now doing deals with the democrats and a lot of supporters are now saying WTF
https://www.ft.com/content/d7e36d9a-9969-11e7-a652-cde3f882dd7b
I think that is so true. Unfortunately NZ'rs over think their international status, reality in fact, as a country. NZ is, in terms of the ocean of international events, as Noncents implies, little more than flotsam and jetsam. But that is good and his?comments ring true, NZ is somewhat insulated, in that in terms of our economy we never go sky high & nor do we go rock bottom. So most of our governments (except the innovative and energetic Lange lot) are reactive. No government here can make plans that will not be affected by say, actual conflict between Qatar and her neighbours. Russia moving on a Baltic State, recommencing the Korean War, 1987/2008 on Wall St.
Had thought if there was to be change, for the sake of change, then a Labour/NZF coalition would have been the least of all evils. After all that worked pretty well for the Clark government. Personally cannot see any other combinations either surviving or even being an effective government. Troubled waters lie ahead for sure.
i like the bean polls, looks like national supporters need to buy more coffee's
https://www.muffinbreak.co.nz/news/the-2017-bean-poll/
the one to watch is Rangiora Borough School can they make it 36 years of picking the correct side
National will form the next Govt the last few days of the week has seen the Arden bubble burst. Clearly Labours internal polling showed they were loosing major support over their ridiculous trust us on tax stance hence the u turn. Barring some disaster over the next week National will more than likely form a Govt with Act and the Maori party if needed Winston will be part he will not go with Labour.
I find it interesting that it has been called a "Captains call" that to me would suggest the rest of Labour are not entirely in agreement with her "call".
They may be presenting a picture of stability for the time being, but it would also appear that the knives are still sharp - . Robertson, Davis, and Nash, all seem to have eyes on the top spot.
That would be good , lol any one of them will sink the Labour boat smart fast .... I bet the Labour party will go back to where they were if Jacinda was removed tomorrow ...
this is an election of Pure Hope in a PR person to turn things around ... A lot of passion and little substance to it all ...
it seems to be a temporary morphine injection to calm the unsettled and help "some" of the needy people at the lower end of the economy .. and that is fine.
However, just like administering morphine, it can be used for a limited period before losing its effect and causing addiction ....
If the Left was elected , we shall keep an eye on the side effects, as that might lead to unfavourable complications (as predicted) ...
If everything was hunky dory then this would not even be a thing, it is because things are not hunky dory, that people are seeking a solution. Far too many people have experienced a negative outcome from the last 9 years. you can hardly blame them for seeking to change. Your best bet is to start campaigning for some sort of system whereby only people who who "qualify" according to certain criteria can vote. Good luck with that.
big call.
my call is too close to call and it all comes down to who can get there supporters to vote just because a poll or people say this and that it does not matter unless they put the bit of paper in the box.
last election only 77.9% eligible people voted even though 92.6% were enrolled
thats 14.7% that deemed it a waste of time, or could not be bothered,
thats the stat to watch this election as in times of change of government it rises as people heed the call to vote
elections are great for us stats nuts
National looking pretty desperate now, there rhetoric and there ads are very very negative. Not a good look.
National left it too late to start caring about everyday NZer's. There growth at any cost policies dont work for middle and young NZer's. The neglect of NZ social services and the NZ enviroment is plain too see. Ignoring the inconvenient truths over housing is disgusting whilst blatantly refusing to collect the data needed to make a difference for the people who need it most.
Shame on you
I am predicting Labour Green coalition government. I believe this government will actually want a better NZ. I beleive this government will bring smartest people together and at least try and do positive things to make NZ a better place.
Bye Bye bill
It's an interesting point, wally.
When Jacinda Ardern said in that first media conference that her campaign run was going to be "relentlessly positive" - I thought, how can you do that when there is so much wrong with the state of the nation after National's 9 year run?
But it's pretty apparent that it is just who she is - a natural optimist.
I definitely like that about her. I also feel national have made it abundantly clear they are not willing to even consider making adjustments to tax system around housing. This is the real elephant in the room.
Sick of all the National spuikers saying the world is over if Labour or the greens make to government. I am assuming they are boomers or property investors. Otherwise the aggressive stance doesn't really make sense.
The longer this carries on the harder the adjustment to something more sustainable will be. I genuinely feel both Labour and the greens genuinely want to do the right things for our country. Definitely couldn't say that for National.
Will be an interesting week ahead. It seems the media is skewing everything towards National but from where i stand that definitely isn't what i am seeing on the ground.....except the farmers of course!!
A few questions...If all is so rosy, vote for it...vote National 9 years to fix these issues.
I used to vote foe them....Labour was not working...
Health Care
Housing
Who do you know living in a tent...car, Caravan, Garage, Affordable House...etc.
Crime
Social Problems
Immigration
Business Taxation compared to yours.
Wages
Pollution
Rivers and Streams
Food prices compared to others.
Petrol & Diesel Prices
Transport
Mortgage debt.
Mortgage Leverage
Government debt.
Your Debt.
Lies,
Spies,
Double Dipping.
PM Jumping ship, Millions richer.
Over Paying themselves..
Over Rating Themselves.
Over expending themselves,
No Oversight of themselves.
Denial of events,
Denial of Chinese and other factors.
Legal Highs..
Full Prisons,
Full Stop..
How do you compare.
I could go on...But not worth the effort.
where would you like your free "irrigation boom delivered" to?
Don't worry about the boom - we "deliver and install" for free as close to the boundary nearest the main highway. Improves the value of your property by at least $1 million, or two, or three
PS:- don't tell anybody
And do you really believe that Labour will fix all these?? in how many terms ? 3 ? 4?
or is it just Hot Air to vent the pressure ? .... by doing what exactly? taxing water that they don't own, taxing carbon and thin air, taxing land to spread around the money ? having TU dictating wage levels ..which will CERTAINLY see unemployment RISE ? destroying several farming businesses and causing food prices up ?? Forcing landlords to push rents UP? ... shall I go on?
All labour supporters who chose to be blinded by emotions and blame the National for the sun shining, or the weather raining .... have to wait and see what they have done ( if labour was elected) ...
A L/G coalition could probably be what this country needs and might be a good thing after all - not because they will be right, but they are going to prove how wrong they are ... and their voters ( especially the young misguided ones) will discover how cheap they have been sold down the river .... God knows when they could be forgiven or given another chance again !
Oh, please dont forget to elect Metiria Turei ...who was campaigning and pouring tears Today in Otara in support of the poor who are suffering from the dismal WINZ payouts ... The Greens ( with all their environmental green principles) are rounding 200 beneficiaries to say it is ok to have a fraudster preaching and sympathising with their hardship !! Go figure ...
New Zealanders among world's happiest people
http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/77974225/New-Zealanders-among-worlds…
I think that there's likely a massive difference between the 'happiness' factor between, say, baby boomers living in NZ, and lets say teenagers....
It would be bizarre if it were only teenagers who voted in this type of poll around the world (to see how things are for the next generation), and we came out on top, yet have one of the worst (is it the worst) suicide rates in the world...I'd definitely smell a rat then...
You can't be genuinely happy and at the same time be losing the will to live...
Speaking of rats:
That's an interesting clip ZS - I'm definitely concerned about global population growth and the resulting outcomes if left unchecked.
You can already see a number of the younger generation who are 'detaching' themselves from society because they don't feel like there's room/options/a path for them.
My personal opinion,which probably won't sit that well with many readers, is that the current generation of leaders (boomers) want to have control of everything - yet they don't want to take responsibility for anything (small and large issues). That's a collective statement and of course there are exceptions - like a number of readers on this site who can see the bigger picture and appear willing to act beyond self interest.
Globally we should be talking, not just about pollution/emissions etc, but identifying what is a healthy population for the planet - each person has a footprint so it's great to say we're going to restrict our footprint independently as Nations, but when the underlying population in each country is growing, those limits are going to be very difficult to achieve. They feel like false promises really, especially when leaders are focused on the growth of the economy - through almost any means (population growth in NZ instead of the more intelligent productivity option...)
Imagine if one day a leader said I'm going to make you relatively poor by limiting economic growth in our country in the near term, focusing only on sustainable activity that are productive yet don't damage they planet, remodelling the way our country functions, and I do this because it's in the best interests of your children, your grandchildren, and your great grandchildren. Our current crop of global leaders (and more importantly the current or recent crop of voters) don't have the maturity to think at that level yet...perhaps one day they will...perhaps not.....
I agree re: global issues, investment needs to be made overseas, particularly in education, healthcare and enablement. The population is expanding, the growth isn't in established Western democracies though, it's in places that can least afford it, having said that consumption and footprints are smaller in those areas. Difficulty is as relative wealth increases, so does consumption.
Religion and culture has a large bearing in what can be done from the West, many of the countries that are not addressing population will not welcome interference in that. I say the West refuses to allow immigration from countries that do not start to sort the problems of overpopulation.
Indeed, we have religions that essentially encourage women to be nothing but brood mothers, the better educated the populace the less religious they are though. The old suck up your current shit life, because it'll be like super awesome and stuff in the next, doesn't wash when you have educated women.
Harden up that's life, its how we deal with it . Each side is no better than the other. We have just had 9 years cleaning things up. and because some people want their lollies now, throw the baby out with the bath water. It will take another decade to clean up a Labour?Green mess.
keywest. Agree, but I reckon the huge media boost Cindy has enjoyed for weeks, will still be enough to squeak her across the line. Peters silly snarling at the media is a gift for their 'lets change the government' campaign. The undecided social media set is still to show its hand but glamour will be their key influencer, so it'll be the media darling they go for.
Is being a former member of the Chinese Communist party against the rules if you want to be a list MP? I hesitate to defend this chap but would it have been okay if he was totally upfront about it? He could sell it as a feature. He knows the ins and outs of the Communist party system and after all if your career path is being part of a bureaucracy and you were born in China then Communist Party membership was your only option.
This highlights what I hate about the party list system. People become MPs who you would never ever vote for. To me it wasn't his party membership that was the main issue but his inability to articulate a reasonable response to the allegation. He came across very poorly when questioned. I expect MPs to have sensible, intelligent and charming responses to public questions. I would only vote for a thoroughly Westernised person myself, as is my right.
Nope, house prices for average joe in Auckland are unattainable, that would be for your standard detached villa, however 2-3 bedroom new builds in Albany are still affordable. Bringing house prices down are not the answer but increasing wages is...who the hell owns a detached house in manhatten or Mumbai or Singapore anyway, Auckland was a late bloomer but you are dreaming if you think anyone deserves a detached house in inner Auckland, get yourself a glass of reality and drink up son
I can only laugh at the anti NZ First comments on here. I was at a Farmer's Market today and it was amazing how many people were coming up to the NZ First tent to ask questions; the number coming up and giving the thumbs up and saying they had already voted for NZ First and even people of different ethnicity coming up saying they wanted to vote for NZ First but didn't know how to. I think there is a quite considerable number of "quiet" voters who will lift the percentage far more than is anticipated by the polls. Will be interesting.
An Economist calls for his resignation
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/watch-its-nothing-personal-…
Those Chinese who have right to vote have already got PR or citizenship, they actually don't care the tightness of immigration (except those want their parents to come but parents PR application had been closed by National). Many of them hope less migrants. I don't think the immigration policy is main reason for Chinese voting for National.
I think the results of Stuffs poll are likely much more accurate as a reflection of people who are actually likely to show up to a voting booth.
It had National at 45% and Labour at 36% after 70,000 odd votes last I checked.
The lack of coallition partners for National could be problematic though unless they can push their own numbers higher towards election day.
My thought as well. Ohariu - even before Dunne opted out - was the one I thought they should have targeted - and either Gareth or Geoff needed to be the candidate (although that said, I don't know the person they have in there now). Then all they needed to do was blitz that electorate with concentrated time, attention and cash.
The first seat is the hardest.
This has nothing to do with the topic of the day, but it is Saturday and I thought we all needed a laugh
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZDYhQ4UAnA
now the question is if Māori sell land will they want an exception from CGT.... i cant see them wanting to pay it can you? after all its there land we stole...and we did steal it like everywhere else in the world... and they stole it from the orginal natives...ooops better stop there...
Bill & co has got what it takes to continue to move to soundly manage the economy / nation for all- top and bottom of ladder and all in between. The major alternative party has a vision and a TAX PLAN, a plan which took a U turn--I wonder what else is in their vision bag. Housing, Student allowances, immigration can all be used the election "football" but you cannot fool hard working Kiwis. National has hardly any "hollow" promises.
Go National, get your votes, form a govt. and tackle the issues.
What do you even mean to 'soundly manage the economy for all'?
Do you mean increase government debt by the order of $50 billion over 9 years while making the rich richer and the poor poorer? I guess you could call that sound management - but it's pushing the meaning of the word 'sound' to the extreme. It sounds more like the plot of a greedy King in a Robin Hood movie who exploits his people for their own self benefit.
No bias in your opinion? You wouldn't be a white, middle aged male would you that owns a property or two would you?
Repeating tired old lies doesn't make them any truer. Govt Debt to GDP stopped rising before last election in 2014, and has been falling since - so saying 6 years rather than your claimed 9 would at least be accurate. And what were the reasons for that debt increase? take a couple of minutes to educate yourself on the huge structural deficit (spending commitments massively higher than tax) that Clark left National to dig it's way out of, added to which the GFC and the 10's of billions of extra costs from earthquakes and it is quite clear that National have done a great job of lifting NZ out of a deep (labour) created hole even while most OECD countries have fared far worse. Left wing govt's have horrible habit of running up their spending without growing the economy and eventually run out of other-people's money to spend, requiring responsible centrist govts to clean up after them. Labour have again presented a Fiasco of a fiscal plan with a massive funding hole left by no allowance for increasing costs, on top of the growth killing tax increases (Income tax, water tax, fuel tax, tourist tax, CGT (from greens)) that target productive industries, and are inevitably going to be borrowing like mad to fund their irresponsible spending promises. Economically clueless as always.
And as for the oft-repeated bullshit about rich richer and poor poorer. If you take a couple of minutes to educate with actual data you will find that it is another lefty-lie. Income inequality has been pretty much constant for the last 25 years (including whole of Clark govt). P80/P20 and Gini coefficients being common measures: http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/snapshots-of-nz/nz-social-ind…
In the meantime NZers have had (purchasing power parity) PPP GDP/capita grow about 25% over the last 9 years, even while weathering the GFC and earthquakes and slowly paring back govt spending to fix labour's structural deficits. Combined with consequently very low unemployment the truth is that everyone (including beneficiaries) has been getting richer, with less real poverty than previously, because that is what (non-labour) policies that grow an economy do - they improve everyone's standard of living. Tax and spend policies lead to recession and higher unemployment that makes everyone poorer, as has been proved time and again throughout the world for the last century. Sadly it is a lesson that the left wing as exponents of irrationality and emotion driven decision making without reference to history, studious consideration, or empirical evidence, seem incapable of learning.
Labour are devoid of any real vision. Their manifesto is based in the politics of envy. They will make us all poorer by attempting to crash land the housing market. This runs danger of undermining confidence in the economy to the extent that the whole country is worse off. A vote for Labour is like a turkey voting for Christmas.
As for the Labour coalition partner, the Greens aka the Fraud Party, a vote for them is a vote for open slaver on benefit fraud. The fact that Labour will not condemn the fraud committed by MT says a lot..... "if you are struggling a bit its okay to just help yourself to someone else's hard earned property".
Anyone who thinks its okay to vote people like Labour/Greens members into government needs their heads read and they should not complain when it all comes crashing down. It would be great if they only shot themselves in the foot and would be a great pity if they dragged the rest of us down with them, but then that is what the politics of envy is all about.
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