Population growth from migration hit a new all time high of 60,290 people in the year to August.
The latest figures from Statistics NZ show that 117,866 people came to this country on a permanent and long term basis (12 months or more) in the year to August, up 13% from the previous year, and 57,576 departed on a long term basis which was down 5% on the previous year, leaving a net gain of 60,290.
That compares to a net gain of 43,483 in the year to August 2014 and a net gain of 12,848 in the year to August 2013, meaning population growth from migration has more than quadrupled in the last two years (see interactive graph which plots the monthly changes in net migration since 1990).
In the month of August there was a net gain of 5346, compared to 4695 in the same month last year and 2255 in August 2013.
In a Quickview newsletter on the migration numbers, ASB senior economist Chris Tennent-Brown said the extremely high migration inflows showed no sign of moderating.
"Strong net migration inflows are helping support robust levels of consumption but are also adding workers to the labour market and helping keep a lid on inflation," he said.
"Continued strong inflows will support labour capacity and contain wages.
"Housing demand will also remain fuelled by the flows, particularly in Auckland.
"Picking the timing of a change in current migration patterns is difficult.
"The local economy is cooling, but offshore labour markets and economic conditions remain mixed.
"We expect net migration to remain at or around the current level for at least the next quarter."
The biggest source country for migrants remains India with a net migrant inflow of 12,676 in the year to August, followed by China and Hong Kong, 9102, The Philippines 4543 and the UK 3791.
There was a net loss of 529 people to Australia in the year to August but a net gain of 243 people from across the Tasman in the month of August.
Of the 60,290 net arrivals in the year to August, 27,862 intended to settle in Auckland, although the actual number that did so was likely to be around 35,000 because another 14,711 did not state where they intended to live when they arrived and many of those were likely to have settled in Auckland.
Of the 117,866 people in total who arrived on a long term basis in the year to August, the biggest group (35,895) came here on work visas, followed by 35,167 Australian and New Zealand citizens (who did not require visas) and 26,759 were on student visas, although many of those on student visas would have been on the pathway to residency that tertiary study in this country provides and will likely end up staying permanently.
There were 13,886 arrivals on residency visas.
| Country of Origin | Residence Visa | Student Visa | Work Visa |
| China | 2,432 | 5,138 | 1,608 |
| United Kingdom | 1,692 | 567 | 6,117 |
| Samoa | 1,205 | N/A | N/A |
| India | 959 | 10,569 | 1,154 |
| The Philippines | 702 | 1,732 | 1,968 |
| Australia | 542 | 78 | 2,975 |
| Germany | 92 | 319 | 2,970 |
| France | N/A | N/A | 3,131 |
| USA | 278 | 338 | 1,853 |
| Source: Statistics NZ |
Net long term migration
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73 Comments
...more job losses by the day, housing dearer by the day, more arriving by the day to receive free edcuation, welfare, medical and ulitimately National Super (and many bringing their primitive discriminatory/intolerant wacky beliefs with them). Awesome, brillant stretegy to lead us to a better NZ for NZers.
In fact its so brilliant I don't get it...clearly I must be either stupid, a left wing liberal, a green voter, labour voter, doomster or I guess all three. Shoot me now.
I don't get it either.
Short term gains at the expense of our NZ.
Will Gallipoli have the same meaning for NZ on the 200th anniversary? Will the Treaty even be relevant? Will Springbok tours and Rainbow Warrior be relevant? Will the NZ accent even exist?
We are bringing in hoards of young adults who will spend the next 60 years of their lives here, with their foreign twangs and inbuilt beliefs and customs.
NZ culture is soon to be dead, exponged by a nation of migrants.
..you, like so many, miss the point. Warm welcome to those that come for sure. But if they don't come cause we stem the tide, no welcome eventuates. Can't you see we are well on the way to replicating that which so many come here to escape from? What is so difficult in understanding this will be the inevitable outcome of the masses arriving?
you must be mistaken.
You need to be a resident in order to have the same rights as any New Zealander ("free" education, "free healthcare")..
..or have a long term work visa (more than 2 years). To get that visa you need A JOB OFFER in a sector with skills shortage. Otherwise the employer must explain to Immigration why did they offer a position to a non-resident and it's very likely to refuse the visa.
I see what you're trying to say, but it's not correct.
I've been 5 years in NZ and so far I pay more than $20,000 a year in income taxes, haven't received ANY cent in healthcare and already came educated.
By your comments it seems NZ is attracting parasites and I don't get it.
I have said it many times, if immigrants come is because there are jobs available and they are offered positions. Otherwise do you really think ANYBODY (other than refugees running away from war) would come to such a remote place leaving family, friends and their people behind?
NZ will go into recession eventually and will loose population again. It's that simple.
Immigration is quite strict as far as I know. I don't think anybody should be concerned about not having enough room in one of the countries with less density of population.
We are importing Baby-Boomers
Four months ago I ploughed slowly through the Government Statistics Census reports for the years 1996 through 2013 which granulates the different cohorts by age and nationality - which produced the following results - (couldn't get any census information prior to 1996) - the information is there - you just have to persevere and you can get it - for total accuracy would need to get the first census after 1966 and find out the number of people aged 21 and under at that census - it would have to be much less than the current 1.138 million because the total NZ population in 1966 was just over 2 million
On the basis that they weren't making any more after 1966 I was interested to see how many Baby-Boomers there were in New Zealand and if it was the problem that Bernard Hickey keeps making out to be. The exercise takes a while to assemble the data. While I was at it I also totalled up the numberof Baby-Boomers that were of Asian Nationality. - only because it was the largest identified sub-group
The surprise was the number of Boomers of all nationalities was growing, not decreasing, while the number of Asian Boomers was growing even faster. As the proportion of Asian migrants account for approximately 30% it can be assumed that all other nationalities are contributing to the increase probably at the same rate I didnt do any other nationalities
Here are the results from the census. Identical more accurate information is required on the arrival and departure cards - but such detail is not provided in the monthly dump - it is noticed that 20% of PLT arrivals do not disclose where they intend to reside
The following comment was posted in response to one of Bernard Hickey's regular Baby-Boomer discriminations
Baby Boomers - Data extracted from censuses 1996-2013
Baby-Boomers Born 1945-1965
NZ-Total number of Baby-Boomers - all groups
1996 1,111,000
2001 1,110,000
2006 1,134,000
2013 1,138,000
Existing 1996 cohort can't increase beyond 1,111,000 locally
Can't make any more of them organically
Asian - Boomers - Total
1996 66,000
2001 80,000
2006 97,000
2013 113,000
Between 1996-2013
The National total number of Baby-Boomers grew 27,000
While the Asian total of Baby-Boomers grew by 47,000 (Que?)
Which means 20,000 of the original 1996 national cohort never made it
http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/75757/bernards-top-10-boomer-doom-loo…
Makes sense as the Boomers vote for National, so keep the taps open. Meanwhile wage growth is constrained, FHB and younger Kiwis are shut out of the Auckland real estate market + savings interest rates now barely above inflation. Oh well at least the boomers having been contributing the Cullen Fund to pay for all these immigrants who will retire in 10 years. Correction no they stopped that
"Stopping contributions to the Cullen Fund was always going to stand out as one of John Key and Bill English’s most economically inept decisions. They chose to stop the Fund buying assets just when they were at decades low prices, Crown borrowing was cheap, and markets were already recovering. The cost in just four years: $2.5 billion. And rising."
http://thestandard.org.nz/restarting-cullen-fund-contributions/
The current population is 4.5 million of which 1.14 million are Baby-Boomers or 25%
In 1966 the total population was 2.6 million
If it can be assumed that, at best 30% of that was aged under 22 at that date, equals 780,000
It can be further assumed that a good number have either deceased, or gone overseas
It can then be reasonably estimated that (max) 700,000 are original BB's and have survived
You can work out where the rest have come from
More than 55% of current baby-boomers are imports
We now have in-country 1.138 million baby-boomers
I should qualify that better, will still contribute after retirement age. I will most likely work part-time after retirement age (a lot of people will be doing this as long as they are fit and healthy), and be paying tax on earned income and investments. No-doubt will also be paying tax on superanuation. Will also be paying tax on rates, food utilities and leisure expenditure. Expenditure from my hard earned savings (which will also be taxed).
Before anyone says I am taking other peoples jobs I work in a sector that is difficult to staff and always has vacancies.
Just out of curiosity - so we can better understand
Did you come in on a skilled visa, family re-union, or significant investor?
Did you buy an existing residence? or did you build new?
Did you locate in Auckland or one of the regions?
Did you bring children with you? Adults? or school age?
left unchecked implies it is not too late and can be checked
seems as if it's too big and too late
the politicians have got themselves caught in a deadly dance of the tarantulas
They can no longer get themselves out of the deadly embrace
Too late - it's political
We have lost the plot
http://www.interest.co.nz/property/76091/population-growth-migration-se…
To quote from Kate
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/76601/latest-roy-morgan-poll-sees-nation…
You are correct it is not about me, however I was commenting because I was asked about me. There are however a lot like me. While you talk about an infernal inflow left unchecked, I tend to agree. I do not believe it is not about the numbers that are coming into New Zealand but the skills they bring and where they choose to settle. I am not against students as the colleges and Universities are major employers. I am also not against students working when they are here. They are often the ones that take the low paid jobs with unsociable hours that so many Kiwi's will not even consider. I know this because I have worked these kind of jobs when I was a (mature) student. Working in the field I now work in I am very aware of the skills shortages in the regions.
Please note I am welcoming, friendly and open to any migrant here. Most kiwis are, but bringing in more and more is going to change this and in fact is changing it already. I don't like this, nor will you. We are going to drown if these numbers aren't checked..more pressure on infrastructure and the environment, turning us into a polluted, comgested, overpriced mess what many are glad to have left behind.
What a tremendous amount of work with the data - well done. These really are the types of points that in the old days, we'd have expected investigative journalists to do as part of the wider consideration of these big ticket public policies (i.e., such as immigration).
To my mind this type of analysis/information deserves a lot more attention, if only for the single reason that we have a universal old age pension. The inter-generational inequity arising from the implementation of our immigration policy over the last few decades really, really should be questioned more prominently - otherwise policy will never change.
When you think about it in the very simplest of terms - anyone who works less than 50% of their adult working life in NZ really should not get the same pension as someone working their whole adult life here. It's simply not economically sustainable.
Don't forget - if someone migrates here from the UK having worked there for example 20 years they are obliged to claim the UK state pension that that period of work would provide. They don't then receive a full NZ pension on top of that - instead the UK pension amount is topped up to what a full NZ pension would be (as long as they have fulfilled the requirements for that). I imagine its the same with most another nation's which have a state funded pension system. Unfortunately from the NZ exchequer's point of view - the UK freezes pensions amounts upon first claiming in NZ (and other Commonwealth nations), so progressively the amount of 'NZ top up' increases with time.
I post this purely for information, as in principle I agree the current NZ state superannuation system is unsustainable....
Well if the population is tripled in 50 years time we could all just move to Southland and be the same pop/area as Belgium is today. Or we could all just calm down. Given that we are already one of the most urbanised countries in the world fitting into Southland should be a doddle.
As for "the solution" to this "problem" - it has already been found. It's called peak 18 year old and the current median global age of 28.
http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/issues/population/faqs-on-populati…
That's a lousy argument. Most of NZ is mountainous, hilly or otherwise relatively useless for vast cities to be built on.
Have you actually seen NZ?
The only decent flat bits are intensively farmed, which is one of our main sources of foreign revenue.
And of course what are all these people going to do here? Pack it to the gunnels like Britain?
How does that help actual NZers?
and they have to import 60%+ of their food....and their Govn finances is a huge mess, and they have to use nuclear reactors that are of an unsafe design plus then store the waste on site in an earthquake prone country as no one else wants the waste....yes great comparison. No I odnt want NZ to be like Japan!
Brit is not full. they have the same stupid planning rules as us (actually worse). London only really started getting into apartment builds now, and price point is very very high. Lots of open space in between cities. And they've been moaning about immigrants for decades hasnt changed anything.
Our natural sea surrounds acting as our own 'trump wall' may actually be adding to the appeal of NZ over time
In the table supplied approx 19K of the 48k shown came in as students. Of the 19K students, nearly 11K came in from one country. What is the special attraction of NZ to students? Is it the ease of entry and ability to work while as a student? What is the greater attraction, the education or the work? Is this fair to Kiwis looking for lower paid work opportunities? All questions the media, unions and government seem to be ignoring as the housing Ponzi roars on. If a recession hits then I am sure these questions will become front and centre.
Duh, I couched my words as I didn't want to be accused of casual racism. Some of these "educational" facility courses would probably be worthy of some checking but investigative journalists are pretty scarce on the ground in NZ. I note that when I fill up these days and have a chat to the attendants most of them tell me they are students and they all seem to be from one country.
Someone said the worst legacy Key/English will leave us with is their decision to halt contributions to the Cullen Fund. I think it's a close race between that decision and the one to allow overseas students in to work. The latter certainly has a more morally bankrupt quality about it.
Specifically what r u actually on about? What tppa deal upsets you?
I still can't get my head around the idea that being lucky to be born here gives you rights over someone born somewhere less fortunate.
People unhappy with immigration are basically saying "hey i got lucky you didn't, put up with it cause i don't wanna share."
Private educational facilities
They have the same problem in AU multiplied x 3
Try these two articles for an insight
SMH
India Education Scam 16 September 2015
The Pheonix Institute Australia - (clever name) pay attention to the nationality of the operators and the money they make and the cars
http://www.smh.com.au/national/vocational-education-the-biggest-getrich…
SMH
India Tax man - 7 September 2015
http://www.smh.com.au/world/india-targets-tax-evaders-who-hide-black-mo…
and how to do that when most from asia and india want to live in auckland.
Christchurch could be expanded to take more but how to get them to go there.
when you look at population growth of cities and towns most have low or no growth and to me it comes back to a few things
1 well paying jobs
2 location of family
3 lifestyle choices
Apparently Auckland is now so expensive they are having trouble finding staff willing to live there. The Herald report suggested that the Government should pay a premium to Auckland based staff. Teachers, nurses, police can't make a go of it with high rents and house prices, never mind that they are already well above the median income. I don't think that would be such a good idea since it will only serve to bid up prices even further as well as meaning that the other areas will be forced to contribute to this (via taxes) on top of the hand out for their transport mess.
Anyway the government said no and fair enough since we're already developing a bi polar economy - one sane and the other completely crazy.
I can see a lot of Kiwis wanting to get the hell out of the place, leave it to the new 'Jafanese".
Yes. Recently announced increased weighting given to applicant immigrants who want to move to a part of NZ outside of auckland. Thats why wellington property market, particularly apartments, is starting to heat up as savvy investors see the writting on the wall. Unless you give each region its own rating 'outside of auckland' = wellington as far as immigrants are concerned, particularly as its the ICT capital of nz and india is the ICT incubator of the world.
If you're relying on a job at a call center or supermarket and are concerned students working are going to take your job id probably think about upskilling or looking at what you can do to allow yourself to offer more value to others to increase your job prospects.
After the great depression US govt employed people to dig holes and other to fill them back in.
Chinas boom has basically been built on a similar model (building ghost cities).
Govt. books in NZ are actually in pretty good shape (private debt is the only concern in nz).
Theres a lot of scope to bring infrastructure spending forward if unemployment rises. And in my opinion it needs to happen anyway esp in auck.
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