Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There were no rate changes again today.
TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Ditto.
DAIRY BOOM OVER
The fall in dairy prices in today's auction was absorbed by markets today. We are now at 5 year lows and most observers are picking Fonterra will need to cut its payout to well under $5/kgMS. Among those dairy farmers with significant debt - about 10% of them, according to the RBNZ - there is going to be trouble. Most will just have a lean year and look forward to 2015-16. The flow-on effects will hit dairy support towns and possibly eventually the big urban centres. But other rural sectors are actually doing quite well.
LOW BIRTH RATE
The latest data on our birth rate has it at just 12.8 per 1000 and our death rate at 6.7 per 1000. Without migration our population is growing very slowly.
TAXPAYERS FINALLY OFF THE HOOK
The curtain finally falls today on the Crown wholesale funding guarantee scheme. The final bank debt carrying the guarantee, which was put in place on November 1, 2008, is a US$71 million ANZ five-year medium term note issue that matures today. The wholesale scheme has been used by ANZ, BNZ, Westpac and Kiwibank, but not ASB. Taxpayer liability peaked at $10.7 billion in November 2009. Unlike the much higher profile Crown retail deposit guarantee scheme that cost taxpayers nearly $1 billion due to the collapse of several finance companies headlined by South Canterbury Finance, the wholesale scheme hasn't lost taxpayers any money. Treasury says fees totaling $289 million were received by banks participating in the wholesale guarantee scheme.
MARKET IMPROVEMENT
There is a definite trend in rising numbers of home loans being approved at rising values. However it is not an especially strong trend. In fact 'growth' from this time last year is still negative. That said, last week's approvals were the highest in more than three months.
WHOLESALE RATES
Domestic swap rates fell in a steepening bias. They are down -3 bps for 2 yrs, -2 bps for 5 yrs but unchanged for 10 yrs. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 3.67%.
OUR CURRENCY HOLDS
Check our real-time charts here. The NZ dollar has fallen today on the back of the GDT auction results. Against the US dollar it is now at 78.8 USc, at 90.8 AUc, and the TWI is at 78.5.
You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.
Daily exchange rates
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8 Comments
Aussie Met Bureau raise risk of El Nino to 70%:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-18/el-nino-warning-raised-by-aust…
2014 was already set to break global temperature records - with an El Nino behind it 2015 may break records again.
Mr Abbott might get a tad hot under his collar in due course.
A low birth rate at the moment is not a problem, the problem is that people in high places seem to think it IS a problem. It is exaclty what the planet needs, what we need to do is figure out how to prosper with it, not crank it up so we can pretend all is good. That our population is growing slowly should be a positive not a negative, a new way of thinking is required
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