By Bernard Hickey
With less than a month to go until the September 20 election, here's my daily round-up of political news on Thursday August 21, including Prime Minister John Key calling for a debate on policy substance rather than 'Dirty Politics', before saying the Green Party may be smoking cannabis with its policy of running higher budget surpluses.
Key's comments came as the publisher of 'Dirty Politics' said more than 10,000 copies of the book had been sold in less than a week, making it the best-selling book in the country.
Key, who has repeatedly said this week that most New Zealanders want to debate the real issues rather than the book, told reporters the Green Party's Fiscal Policy announced on Wednesday of running higher surpluses and reducing debt was not believable.
"I know the Greens are keen on legalising cannabis, but you know, if they really believe that, maybe they've been trying the substance because they can't do that," Key said of the Green forecast of bigger surplues.
Asked if he thought if Green Co-Leader Russel Norman had been smoking pot, he said: "Well, if he really believes those press releases, yes. Press releases are cheap and easy. Getting back into surplus is a much more challenging issue."
Norman released the Green Party's 29-page Fiscal policy in Wellington, including a review by Infometrics of the figures which used the Treasury's forecasting model updated with the new figures from yesterday's PREFU.
Collins 'unwise and held responsible'
John Key was repeatedly questioned on the campaign trail why he had not sacked Judith Collins after the ' Whaledump ' leaks showed she leaked both an official's name and private phone number to Cameron Slater.
Key repeated that the leak had been 'unwise' and that she had been held responsible, but would not confirm or deny if she had breached the cabinet manual. He laughed off suggestions she had embarrassing information on the Prime Minister himself and would not say how she had been held responsible. He simply repeated the allegations in 'Dirty Politics' were an orchestrated left-wing smear campaign.
However, Key did welcome the announcement by the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security, Cheryl Gwyn, that she would launch an official Inquiry into whether the SIS was politically neutral in its response to Cameron Slater's OIA request.
Office informed, but not PM himself
The Press Gallery is now questioning the Prime Minister's comment on Monday that he was not involved and did not sign off on Slater's OIA request. Felix Marwick from NewstalkZB has this morning tweeted a copy of a letter from Warren Tucker from November 2011 saying Tucker had informed the Prime Minister.
However, Tucker released a statement on Thursday morning saying he had only informed the office of the Prime Minister, and not the Prime Minister personally.
"My practice under the 'no surprises' convention relating to Official Information Act requests was to brief the Prime Minister through his office. The reference to the PM in this context means the PM's office," Tucker said.
Key was reported as telling reporters in Auckland this morning that his office was informed, but not him personally.
"A lot of these agencies just make the assumption that if they inform my office I'm informed," he said. "In this particular case I was not personally informed. My office was informed about the timing but I was not personally involved in it."
However, a second letter to Felix Marwick from Chief Ombudsman Beverley Wakem also referred to a discussion with the Prime Minister.
Waken refers to a discussin she had from Warren Tucker saying "that he is prepared to release a statement regarding his discussion with the Prime Minister".
The letter then says: "Ms Wakem is of the view that there is good reason to withhold Dr Tucker's full recollection of his discussion with the Prime Minister".
However, Wakem told reporters early this afternoon her comments related to a briefing of the office of the Prime Minister, rather than the Prime Minister himself. The SIS itself has refused to say who in the Prime Minister's office was briefed.
Key later told reporters on the campaign trail that he was in Hawaii on holiday when the SIS briefing was given to the PM's office.
Meanwhile, NewstalkZB reported that a Herald Digipoll due to be published tomorrow would show John Key's personal popularity as preferred Prime Minister had dropped by 8.5% to 64.8%
Whaledumps keep coming
Meanwhile, the Whaledump drip-feed of raw correspondence between Cameron Slater and his friends continued, including a long one yesterday of Slater's facebook messages with Aaron Bhatnagar. They confirmed their involvement in downloading details from Labour's website and their discussions with 'senior Nats' on how to release the information.
They messages also include many personal details about Slater's family, which Whaledump apologised for not redacting, undercutting suggestions by some that the drip-feeding of the documents is an orchestrated and professional exercise.
"I got lazy. Didn't read the dumps before dumping. Didn't do it on purpose. Won't happen again," Whaledump said via twitter when challenged by many others upset about the personal details of non-public figures being exposed.
The pattern has been set though with regular Whaledumps around the middle of the day every day until the election.
(Updated with the latest on whether John Key was briefed on the very quick release of SIS documents to Cameron Slater after an OIA request)
I'll update this regularly through the day.
See all my previous election diaries here.
See the index for Interest.co.nz's special election policy comparison pages here.
83 Comments
Yes the Greens are deluded about their proposed increased tax take. And Russel and Metiria forgot to read the Appendix of their own Infometrics report (or deliberately ignored it). Their assumptions are given a big fat qualification there (Appendix pg 6) "The Green Party tax revenue estimates take no allowance for a decline in the tax base and as such must be viewed as high-end estimates. We think it would be prudent to base fiscal estimates on considerably lower revenue estimates." Oh well, back to Econ 101 for you dear leaders! .
Interesting that they plan to spend considerably less than National then don't you think? How do you justify National spending even more?
As far as National saying the Greens are being dishonest he must be having a laugh. Surely you would tuck your head in after the week he has just been through.
You're kidding right ? Estimated 28b increase in govt spending over next four years if all Labour/Green promises enacted. And you think Nats will spend more? I notice you don't deny that the Greens have got their income tax predictions wrong. They are either lying by omission, or deliberately, or they actually didn't read the full Infometrics report supporting their fiscal policy. Either way I don't think they are capable of having a major say in running the country. And they would be a major partner if Labour win 20 Sep.
I havn't seen the Estimated 28b increase if all Labour/Green Promises enacted. However I am happy to take your word on this. The reality is Greens and Labour have very different policies. Obviously if they do win the election they won't be enacting all the policies. You are either being intellectually dishonest suggesting that or knowingly repeating misleading information.
The Greens policies have been costed along side current National spending and come out $161 million less. Surely by now you must realise just because John Key says some gibberish dosn't make it true. It's an easy Mantra to say the "looney left" or "fiscally irresponsible" or "smear campaign from the left" but as we have seen over the last week Key is a liar and says whatever suits his needs. You are obviously a good National farmer and would probably still vote National if John personally shot your dog. The truth is the Greens arn't communists they have a sensible plan for the economy and more importantly the environment.
Agree the Greens wouldn't get all their policies through. But, given they would be a major partner, would you like to speculate on how many they would be able to push through? They are on record saying they want major cabinet positions. For the record I am not a member of any political party or a farmer . Also everyone wants a sustainable environment or there is no society or economy, so don't give me that holier than thou Greenie rubbish about the centre right wanting to destroy the environment. And I'm sure you know this, but Russel Norman was once a member of the Aust Socialist Workers party, so forgive me for being concerned that the Greens are a little socialist for my liking. And I stand by my opinion that they think businesses are a magic source of funds to allow them to do conduct their social engineering experiments. Am not saying the Nats are perfect, just that a Labour/ Green/ Mana coalition would be a step too far left for me.
When you word your comments like that they seem very reasonable. Obviously everyone is not going to agree with what is the best course of action but if we could state our case without slamming the otherside with cliches and just stick to the facts. I only thought you were a farmer from your username perhaps chartered accountant?
Yes former CA. Hence interested in figures, and like this website as people on it generally have a better understanding of economics, taxes etc. and how government decisions affect things. Re this campaign, I just don't like the way pollies go crazy promising us election lollies as if there is a limitless source of money available. Eg See Labour's latest promises for regional development in Dunedin. Dunedin is Labour voting already, so they are really desperate now and acting like a minor party- making wild promises with little chance of being able to implement them. Will people believe they can though?
If you think National MPs are good at business, what kind of business people are they to have left the EQC figures out the the pre-election country fiscal statement. By your own yardstick do they not comprehend what leaving out those numbers does to the state of the country, or are they being misleading?
Its not about budgeting as such, in fact if that was the case all you would need to be is an accountant.
At that point no social policy offers an apparant return, so there wouldnt be any.
"There is an old story in Italy (but also in other Mediterranean regions) that tells of a man who tried to train his donkey to work without food. So, he gradually reduced the beast's daily ration of hay. Later on, the man reported that, unfortunately, the donkey had died just when it had learned to go without any food at all."
The man of the story must have been an economist. He was trying to optimize the system and he had defined the "efficiency" of the donkey as the ratio of the work performed divided by the amount of hay consumed. He had found that reducing the amount of hay improved efficiency and, with impeccable logic, had brought the idea to its natural conclusion."
http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.co.nz/2014/08/italy-training-donkey-to-…
In the real world we wish for a society with certain attributes that may well not align with what a businessman or acountant want.
Meanwhile the person deciding the policy can have an accountant as an advisor on the costs of what he or she wishes to do, simple, its known as Treasury.
PS the 9 years of HC's govn didnt bring the Govn or accounts to its knees and in fact we paid off debt. What did bring it down was the GFC, a free market disaster.
regards
Unusual way of looking at things......
Both the donkey and the hay were essential inputs.....so that blows your theory of budgets not being important.......
The man who owned the Donkey was running a "get blood out of a stone" regimen.....as he wanted to extract all the profits without the necessary inputs.....bit like the Greens and their taxes really........
Bernard maybe you should do some checking up on whaledump.
Whaledump is a subsidary of C & M Ltd.....with the address provided being Flat 3B, 3 Hans Cresent.....I just googled this and to my surprise this address matched the Ecuadorian Embassy.
The long company number provided on the Whaledump website does not match to a NZ Company number and there is no name match.
The Company name and number do not match in London.
I'm going to have a wee look at Ecuador...
Whaledump site has a link to Mega.co.nz.
I'm smelling rottenwhale!!!
Well you're correct on that dtcarter.....I actually don't have a sene of humour on this whole fiasco and think it is disgusting behaviour. And as for the hacker I sincerely hope they are caught up with and dealt too. NZ doesn't need this type of BS activity going on.
DH.....I don't find lies funny.....nor see them as a joke!!!.......
I know exactly who is in the Ecuadorian Embassy........when did lies, theft and deception become a joke?
As far as I'm concerned some people should be looking themselves in the mirror if you find this even remotely funny.....this is the society and actions that you have all helped create. Proud of it are you?
Actually, voting for transparent and accountable government is right up on my list of priorities, as I don't see too much difference in the economic platforms of the two main parties.
I actual feel in a pretty good place to know that most of the country is concerned about the relevations in the Hager book (maybe not concerned enough to vote differently, but concerned). I take that as a sign of hope that people still want clean accountable transparent government.
I think most people also want transparent accountable Goverment......and which Poltical party offer this option? So most people will vote for the best of the worse and hope and pray.........
Hager has still used stolen information and done it knowingly and I assume profiting from this......I'm not seeing too much transparency from him.....he hasn't handed over his sources and he hasn't been held accountable as yet for using stolen goods and profiting from them. So what's he going to do....skip the country....before an investigation takes place?
All a hacker haha - explained by the Herald a few days ago;
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11311008
But don't worry - happens to the best of the armchair investigative journalists!!!
John Key is the one smoking when he says " Getting back into surplus is a much more challenging issue"
Prior to the recession induced by high interest rates and the drought, and followed by the GFC, Labour ran 9 years of surpluses and paid down debt. The current deficit is not structural, it's cyclical.
To get back into surplus, all you have to do is ride the business cycle. As the people that were laid off start working, welfare payments turn into tax payments, and the deficit is gone. National were correct to let the budget run into deficit, but they are no wizards getting it back out.
Looks like the Prime Minister is going to blame his staff for the OIO release of information to Slater! What a weak man he is. It is beyond any comprehension that is was not fully aware of the release. It gives little comfort that he is so confident of the outcome of the independent review of this event - brings into question the "independence" - a little bit like the way the "independent" Police so vigorously pursued the "cup of tea" tape and so impotently investigated the John Banks' elecoral return affair.
Key should stop treating New Zealanders with such distain. He should stop lying and being such a schmuck ,admit his involvement and try and regain a tiny bit of respect before his teflon fully dissolves.
Any suggestions for a good solid National leader?
Any suggestions? I suspect that the Key/Ede and Ede/Slater doubles are known by the National Party executive to indeed be a Key/Ede/Slater trifecta, but that's not a winning ticket. So the plan could be to keep Key where he is until successfully re-elected and he'll then go on gardening leave ... It's a well travelled bet (i.e., if I recall correctly, it was gardening leave from Elders, as the run on the NZ dollar played out, then popped up in NYC for Merrill).
What surprises me is that no NZ journo has sought out Peter Goodfellow for his comment on Dirty Politics. Surely the party is the ultimate boss in all of this?
The trouble is teflon man is National's only big card, if the doo doo sticks and Im hoping NZers will be so outraged by the relevations it will, he and Natioanl will be toast.
Sadly of course Labour's replacement for PM managed to take their vote % to what must be an all time low. That lack of judgement doesnt bode well for someone leading the country, but its better than a liar.
regards
Or what about Helen lying about an entire ecomony?
"We are in this particular period of international market volatility with the Government's finances in good shape, with the country's net debt position in very good shape and we're in a resilient position compared with where New Zealand has been in the past to respond to shocks."
vs. the reality a few months later of $6 billion budget deficits and forecasts still in the red beyond 2023.
http://www.treasury.govt.nz/budget/forecasts/eff2008/eff08.pdf
Sadly it seems that Peter Goodfellow is prepared to back this Schmuck at all costs to the party. He seems to be the sort of quiet leader who maybe wants to stand by Crusher, Key and is happy to keep paying the likes of Ede. This says that Goodfellow supports Ede and Slater - maybe he even helped organise Slaters recent OE to take him out of the spotlight?
National have made this election about "Team Key" and tried to create a sense of cult status around him. When I initially voted for him, I thought he was stable, honest and a safe pair of hands. I apologise to NZ for voting for him in his first term.
Maybe its time someone like Hekia came forward to a leadership role -she would be a real change for National.
If the Greens are smoking pot - then the Nats are snorting coke;
http://gordoncampbell.scoop.co.nz/2014/08/21/gordon-campbell-on-mud-sli…
Key knowing nothing about that is one of the most unbelievable things I've heard in a long time.
He is the head of the SIS - that's enough to have known about it, he was the prime minister, and it was about the head of Labour - that's enough that he would have known about it.
National also had the no surprises policy - that's enough that he would have known about it.
How could he not be surprised about it, if he still didn't even know about it.
He is clearly lying, and taking NZers for idiots.
Also if National are so great for the country, why is there now 63 billion in debt, when there was almost none 6 years ago.
Unemployment up, and they the joke about closing the wage with Aussie completely unspoken about now - because it has in no way happened.
Sigh. Aunty Helen had us on track for $44 bill debt and deficits forever when she and Michael cleaned out the cupboard and bought train sets. Lying, taking NZers for idiots...
I guess you can fool most of the people most of the time.
Michael and Helens gift.
http://www.treasury.govt.nz/budget/forecasts/eff2008/eff08.pdf
Oh dear you cant resist lies can you. 2008 outlook for BE, nothing to do with HC all to do with the GFC and a global financial crisis brought about by the Free market.
" The world economy has changed rapidly. It is vastly different from that of recent years and much weaker than the outlook incorporated in the Budget Update forecasts seven months ago. The financial market upheaval this year represents one of the largest shocks to the world economy since World War II and the full impacts are still to be worked through"
regards
You'll find treasury wrote it. It just shows how easily the wool is pulled over your eyes. Did you miss the bit where Michael Cullen skited he in 08 budget that he had spent the lot? Did you miss the bit where Goff said they in into legacy budgets - budgets that make it very hard for National to govern? Who did you think was going to pay for the GFC and earthquakes, a $6.3 billion deficit and projected deficits beyond 2023 for the incoming governement? The tooth fairy? The Dec 08 treasury report clearly shows the "legacy" and the mess Labour left the books in. But hey it's only facts.
I have posted this before. Changes in NZ Government debt levels since National took office.
Current NZ Goverment debt levels collated by the RBNZ
Some simple aritmetic will confirm that outstanding publicly issued government debt at the end of Cullen's 3 term reign stood at around $ 27 billion, where as now it is ~$77.0 billion.
Something I've only just learned, that Hawaii has no internet, no phone lines, no cell phone coverage, no faxes, very surprising news, very interesting.
Apart from showing an absolute lack of integrity and borderline criminal behaviour, this governement were incredibly stupid to pass on so much information to a very dirty player like Slater himself.
Did they never think this could in some way come back to bite them?
They made a very sleazy person, very powerful by doing it, and how do we know Slater isn't the leaker himself, perhaps National didn't give him something he wanted.
They are the constructors of there own demise in this saga.
I guess if he was on the moon you would still not be satisfied as the SIS could have routed communications through NASA.Your musings are devoid of any fact(common with those of the left ) there is no smoking gun here sorry..just Phil Goff trying to cover HIS stuff up...
That's about the weakest analogy I've ever hear, the moon and Hawaii.
He can quite happlily send selfies from Hawaii, but does the communication only goes one way there? out in the good old sticks of Hawaii lol.
Just keep on defending and denying to the bitter end, usual story.
It wasnt an analogy..just a point to prove that wherever he was that still wouldnt matter to those trying to make a story up here.Your reply confirms my theory that common sense isnt all that common.When David Cunliff was on a sking holiday recently (after apologising for being a man) he was incommunicado as it were .
double standards me thinks
To believe that a PM doesnt have the likes of a Blackberry in his pocket, or someone within ear shot with one is frankly un-believeable. I mean I think Obama has one? hardly high tech or beneath JK. All managers I have had for the last 15+years for instance have a phone 24/7 and want to know about any significant failures as soon as possible and that its got our full attention if only to calm the client. To think that someone at the head of a country doesnt have that capability or wish is farcical to me.
I mean if it was me and I wasnt told of something like this immediately so I can consider a response before I got flat footed by a journalist I'd be replacing some ppl.
But then some sycophants are prepared to believe anything.
regards
maybe JK is not the Fuhrer like Her Helen was,maybe he doenst like to micro manage every event,as it was a trivial thing at the time.. maybe he trusted those in his office to deal with it,maybe he had more important things on his mind... just maybe..
and steven... yes if some one like you does have constant "significant failures" then you should carry a cell phone..so you can ring your manager asap
Mr Key has admitted, proudly proclaimed in fact, that he calls people in the mainstream media many times a week. In other words he clearly sees managing the media as a critical part of the job. Nothing wrong with that. But given that, it is implausible that he was not made aware of an OIA request leak that his own department and ministers had aggressively engineered, completely against the rules of an independent SIS, that's only purpose was to embarrass the leader of the opposition.
Where two key senior figures have backtracked from direct claims that they informed him to now only informing his department. Despite the now surfaced video where he himself admits he was informed.
There are none so blind...
Or maybe you accept it's dodgy, but think it's all fine, that National's somewhat mediocre economic performance justifies dodgy behaviour.
Stephen L.
Goff is an idiot and a liar.
Last night on Campbell live he said" that from his experience with the PM,s office ,staff would not leak material without the PM's knowldge "
talk about an own goal ..so H Clark leaked stuff all the time no?
there was no smoking gun here..if you want the full story (and not the slanted MSM gotcha view) then a visit to whale oil to hear Camerons side of the story,
might open your eyes
Goff is neither an idiot nor a liar. Key is certainly not an idiot either. He has though been running a department and a ministry that has materially crossed many lines of acceptable behaviour, as an organised matter of practice. He is struggling to defend that practice without stretching the limits of credibility beyond any reasonable test. He's been the man in charge, and there's been no mea culpa yet. Other than "Aw shucks it wasn't me"; and conceding that perhaps passing a civil servants information over was "unwise".
I really don't wish to give Mr Slater any more credence by visiting his site other than by an accident of google, given the evidence of his behaviour and attitudes to date.
If I'm missing some key evidence, by all means explain here.
what you are missing is Slaters version of events.i,m not going to repost it here.If you are too lazy to type a few letters and click the mouse then the 'left' is where you belong and far be it for me to try and change that.
the"evidence of his behaviour and attitudes" that forms your opinion has been focused by MSM spin..they are scared of him and what he represents to the future of current affairs in this country.. but alas as you quoted "there are none so blind..."
regards
The evidence has been in his own emails. That's the point. They are absolutely damning in terms of attitude, and to my mind, approach to politics. I don't think the left or right or anyone else are now remotely scared of him, and we are all better off for that, in my view. His credibility and image is below Judith Collins', and that takes some doing.
Don m you obiously haven't seen the 2011 video yet, that has just come out, where he states himself that he was told about it (not his office).
How much evidence to you need?
You cannot get any better proof that it coming from the horses mouth.
Getting someone else to lie for you as well, doesn't make something the truth
It's time to give this charade up, its just getting embarrassing.
Whoa. Are you saying that because you don't like Cameron Slater, he should not have the same rights under the OIA as everybody else?
And do you seriously think a decision by a Government department to respond to an OIA request by a NZ citizen is something that should have been specifically brought to the Prime Minister's personal attention?
You're not following this very closely are you, a radio station (News talk ZB I think), also tried to get that info by OIA request, and never got it at all.
Your little hero Slater got it within and hour, and had prior knowledge that he would do as well, when all OIO's normally take a month.
If Key wouldn't have been interested in it, why did he talk to reporters about it in the 2011 video, stating he had been told about it.
You are contradicting what is now common knowledge in mainstream media.
It is very disturbing, we are now starting to look like our poilical system is not much less corrupt than Fiji's.
You can put your blinkers back on now though, some people just aren't interested in the truth, and are only interested in arguing to defend people they support undyingly.
Philthy - its was Newstalk ZB but I don't think you've heard Garners explanation of that in that when they queried back then why Slater got it and the station didn't, they were informed that it was something to do with the different process each took in applying for it - I can't remember what but Garner acknowdleged that yesterday.
The bigger problem is that the SIS must have sat on this video evidence clearly showing Key acknowledging that he was made aware of the incident.
Is it the nations secret service or that of sect of entitled individuals? - many at all levels need to be gone by a lunch time in the near future.
We cannot afford our official representatives to be missing in action within their private made up world.
this doesn't really have anything to do with the SIS. Key said he knew at a press conference in front of the nations media in 2011. but him knowing wasn't an issue until the full details around the OIA request became public this week, and all concerned began trying to say Key never knew- It was fine for Key to know about it in advance when the circumstances of the release were not dodgy. Now that the circumstances are dodgy, all around are saying Key didn't personally know despite both official documents of the time and now Keys own public statements. No one began looking it up until Key began contradicting himself.
Prehaps Key could give himself a final warning, that might work.
this doesn't really have anything to do with the SIS.
Is that so?
Dr Tucker this morning took the unusual step - particularly given the matter is now under investigation by Inspector General of Intelligence and Security Cheryl Gwyn - of releasing a statement backing Mr Key's version of events that he informed the Prime Minister's office, and not Mr Key personally, about the release of the documents. Read more.
SIS could have refuted this assertion.
Slater isn't my little hero. He's a very nasty piece of work. But he's a NZ citizen and he has rights under the OIA. You seem to think the Government can and should decide whether those rights are honoured according to who's making the request and what they're likely to do with it, rather than whether proper process has been followed and the criteria under the Act have been met.
I think Fairfax and Scoop believed they were not being treated as equals and a representative from the later told the PM so. View Video
Havent followed this all that much, but
One thing that did come out was Cameron Slater was "coached" by someone within the "PM's" office on how to prepare an OIA request to comply with some "secret protocol" which was then "fast-tracked" through official channels
While Cameron Slater is a NZ citizen with the same rights as all other NZ citizens, what qualities did he possess that entitled him to such privileged status that he was "coached" from within, and then "fast-tracked" while others were denied, without explanation
Ms de Meanour, I have no idea what made you think, I would think that, that's the complete opposite of what I think, but that is exactly what has happened.
Slater got special treatment by getting his OIA request in an hour, when most other ones take at least a month if they are even allowed at all, on top of that it has become very obvious he had inside knowledge of exactly what to ask for.
But this has been well documented in the media, if you had been following the story at all you would know this.
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