By Bernard Hickey
With 65 days left until the September 20 election, here's my daily round-up of the political and governmental news from in and around Wellington on Thursday, July 17, including the latest poll results from Roy Morgan and Stuff/Ipsos showing National polling solidly above 50% and Labour languishing in the mid-to-low 20s.
Roy Morgan's monthly opinion poll shows support for National rising back to 51% and support for Labour slumping 4.5% to 23.5%, its lowest level in the poll since just before the November 2011 election.
National rose 3% and support for the Green Party rose 3% to 15%, which was the highest since September last year.
Support for Conservative was unchanged at 1%, while Internet-Mana was down 1% at 1.5%. Maori Party support fell 0.5% to 1% and ACT fell 0.5% to 0.5%.
The fixed line and mobile phone poll of 819 voters was taken from June 30 to July 13 and released late on Wednesday. The poll found 5.5% did not name a party and the margin of error was around +-1.5% at the 95th percentile.
The Stuff/Ipsos poll released on Thursday morning showed support for National down 1.7% to 54.8%, while support for Labour rose by the same amount to 24.9%. Green support rose 0.4% to 12.4%, while New Zealand First fell 0.6% to 2.6%.
Mana, Maori and Conservative were grouped around 1%, while Act registered at 0.1% and United Future was at 0.2%. The telephone poll of 1,000 residents took place in July and the maximum sampling error was +-3.1% at the 95th percentile. The poll found 15.3% of voters had not decided who to vote for.
IPCA rejects Norman's complaints
The Independent Police Conduct Authority (IPCA has released a report rejecting complaints from Green Co-Leader Russel Norman over Police decisions not to prosecute the GCSB over its illegal surveillance on 88 people, as revealed in the Kitteridge report.
IPCA Chair Judge Sir David Carruthers said the Police were justified in not prosecuting.
"The Police decision not to prosecute was based squarely on an opinion provided by the Solicitor-General. Police were quite entitled to rely upon this advice, and indeed, having received the opinion it would have been surprising if they had proceeded on any other basis," he said.
He also ruled there was no conflict of interest in the appointment of Kristy McDonald to oversee the investigation and that the decision not to prosecute over collection of metadata was justified because the law was unclear over the collection of metadata.
Norman said the IPCA decision meant New Zealanders would never get justice in the GCSB spying saga.
"The report gives a green light for illegal spying because the system has set itself up to be impenetrable to inquiries for justice," he said.
Labour Associate Security and Intelligence spokesperson Grant Robertson said the IPCA reported showed the need for a full Inquiry into the spy agencies.
The Internet Party called for a Royal Commission into the GCSB.
Credit card 'boo-boo'
National List MP Claudette Hauiti, who replaced disgraced Aaron Gilmore, has apologised for what she said was a "big boo-boo" over her use of a parliamentary credit card to buy air tickets for a personal trip to Australia, the NZ Herald reported.
"Well, you know, big boo-boo. Paid it back, really sorry. There's no excuse for not knowing the Speaker's rules," she was quoted as saying on Prime TV's Backbenches programme.
Hauiti has since given back the card and is now claiming expenses after paying for the items.
(Updated with Hauiti's credit card drama, IPCA report)
I'll keep updating this through the day.
See all my previous election diaries here.
See the index for Interest.co.nz's special election policy comparison pages here.
16 Comments
You know , surely Parliamentarians are aware of the rules regarding the use of the public purse , or Taxpayers money ?
What are they thinking when the go on these junkets overseas ?
I cannot beleive that anyone would be so stupid or naive , or downright dishonest with public money.
Labour’s problems stem from a fractured left. As many here like to point out there are about the same number of left wing voters as there has always been but they are now spread (at Labours expense) between Greens, Labour, Mana, Internet, Maori. Labour considers their loss of voters as a threat and their response to that threat was to try and win those left votes back by lurching further to the left. Their new leader is very left, their policies are increasing left and their ideologies are antiquated. This has left the centre wide open for National who have gobbled it up and even some of the centre left with their pro-immigration, money for teachers and increased money for education policies.
On a separate note, in my opinion John Key is popular because he is personally successful in the private sector/real world. This is something many working Kiwis relate and aspire to; and thus respect those who have achieved in this way.
On another note, maybe we’ve got it all wrong:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0YjL9rZyR0
Should we be running a meritocracy?
Regrettably Key is successful in a field which is zero sum. Forex is just a redistribution of money.
Unfortunately the voters do not recognise the difference compared to industry that produces wealth rather than milking the profits for the advantage of the few.
Puts him in the class of lawyers, accountants and real estate and car dealers.
People vote for their leaders for very spurious reasons including but not limited to:
He/she looks pretty;
I like his/her suit;
He/she is offering to pay me more benefits;
He/she is offering to cut my taxes;
Or any other number of selfish reasons.
People voting for JK because he's been a successful leader in the private sector is a better reason than voting for someone who promises to pay/bribe with a higher benefit.
It also shows he's a good leader, anyone who has worked in FS will tell you that very, very few people get to the level that JK got to.
I'm not advocating JK for PM, my last was simply my observation of what influences many peoples votes. There's no need to be so defensive, my ideal govn would be a mix of left and right, policies from the Greens, Act, National and Maori would suit me best.
I have to admit I see nothing to admire over at Labour (like 75% of the pop), just a matter of time before Greens are the dominant left wing party.
Of course JK qualifies on all five of your incomplete criteria
Pretty? Yes to some. He shaves every dayand probably showers as well.
Suit? He can afford the best so no excuses there.
More benefits? Keeping pensions to 65 and free doctors until 13 - but not until 2015.
Cut taxes? Had to do that to get in in 2008 though Clark was probably out by then irrespective.
Other selfish reasons? Craves a third term and will do anything to do so. But that is a Nat mantra -power at any cost please.
"stuff.co.nz/Ipsos poll reveals that Cunliffe may have become Labour's biggest liability, with a significant number of voters saying they would be more likely to vote for Labour if someone else were leader"
Would be interesting to here a insiders take on this, do you want him to go? What's he like to work with?
Successful leader? parasites are successful that doesnt make them something you want to have.
"private sector" but he didnt actually make a good and runa company, just the knack of making money in the "city".
Or maybe the bribe of future tax cuts is winning?
regards
Trevor Mallard has given us the clue to NZ Labour's main issue .... testing cosmetics on animals .... we should ban this he says , rightfully so say I ...
... cos no matter how much lipstick you slather on it , the Labour Party is still a pig ...
And judging by the Roy Morgan opinion polls , the electorate agree !
David Cunliffe : Hop up on your hind legs , man , and say " I'm sorry for being a leader of the Labour Party " ...
... back in 1908 , when the first flickerings of the modern day NZ Labour were being formed , they polled better in the general election than you do today in Roy Morgan's opinion polls ...
Give it up , fella ... you're not resonating with the public ... the Greens are running you down lickety-splick , for heaven's sake , imagine that , Rossel Nurmal and Mural Token as joint PM's of Godzone !!!!
... aha haaaaaaa ha de haaaaaaaaaaaaa !!!!!!!!!
About time, BH, to recycle H L Mencken's classic line.
"An Election is an Advanced Auction of Stolen Goods"
The longer context:
“The state — or, to make matters more concrete, the government — consists of a gang of men exactly like you and me. They have, taking one with another, no special talent for the business of government; they have only a talent for getting and holding office. Their principal device to that end is to search out groups who pant and pine for something they can’t get, and to promise to give it to them. Nine times out of ten that promise is worth nothing. The tenth time it is made good by looting ‘A’ to satisfy ‘B’. In other words, government is a broker in pillage, and every election is a sort of advanced auction on stolen goods.”"
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