A drop in support of the ruling National Party to its lowest level since October last year has seen a potential Labour/Greens alliance move ahead in public opinion for the first time since January.
The latest Roy Morgan Poll, taking the views of New Zealanders both by landline and mobile telephone between March 17 and 30, shows a dip in National's support to 43% from 45.5% in the previous poll.
However, the latest poll is not really much more encouraging for National's main rivals, who collectively also lost ground.
The Labour Party edged up slightly, to 32% from 31.5%, while the Green Party actually fell to 13% from 14%.
As of now that would give the potential partners 45% support at the polls.
Potential kingmaker Winston Peters had a good poll, with support for his NZ First Party up to 5.5% from 3.5%.
Colin Craig's Conservative Party - a potential National coalition partner - had its best showing since January, rising to 2.5% from 1.5%.
Elsewhere the Maori Party was 1.5% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ was 0.5%, unchanged and United Future 0.5% also unchanged.
The Mana Party was on 0.5% (up 0.5%), the Internet Party (0.5%, up 0.5%) while support for Others is 0.5% (down 0.5%).
Roy Morgan executive chairman Gary Morgan said it "appears" the "scandal" around Justice Minister Judith Collins was continuing to dent support for National – now down 5.5% over the past month.
"However, today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll also shows a clear split in support between the major parties which means minor parties are likely to play a big role in determining who forms Government in September.
"This could well include the new Internet Party, which launched its election campaign last week.
"The much discussed Internet Party, founded by entrepreneur Kim Dotcom, has already had discussions with Hone Harawira’s Mana Party about combining their party lists in an attempt to get extra MPs into Parliament. In addition, Internet Party leader Dotcom has also claimed to have convinced a sitting MP to join his fledgling party which is not yet officially registered."
29 Comments
I think the Q is "if you had to vote today how would you vote"
Ive decided to vote Green again, if nothing else neither of the other 2 is fit for office....both so called leaders want to make me puke. Yesterday's men locked into yesterday's growth policies.
regards
They tend not to get talked about much, as it makes the results seem less certain. It is like the media don't quote the range of likely values of support, just the central figure.
In the big picture there has been no real movement in total Government support (a bit of flow around between National and Conservative for example) but NZ First up above 5% makes a lot of difference. Basically if these numbers were indicative of actual election results there is about a 23% either National or Labour could form a majority government (almost all of the chance is National's) without NZ first, and a 77% chance NZ First is going to get a Kingmaker role. In a minimum hypothetical group kind of way it is
National + ACT + United + NZ First
or
Labour + Greens + NZ First
dh,
I'm sure you are right. It seems likely to me that there are reactions to one poll in the next poll. In this case I wonder whether the Judith Collins issue really had much effect, and certainly don't think it will for long if it did.
Just possibly some people would have seen the last poll showing National leading by the length of the street, and then concluding that they don't want a dominant party, be it National or Labour. In that scenario, seeing NZ First on 3-4%, you would likely opt for them to ensure they got over 5%. As the election gets closer I suspect the effect of the polls themselves will have an increasingly significant effect, and most of that will ensure NZ First gets over 5.
Conversely those who would prefer either National or Labour/Greens in the main box seat, may opt for whichever they prefer, if the polls show that being threatened. NZers are reasonably enough tactical with their vote, and where the polls sit will inform the tactics to a large extent.
Well never having been asked, I have no idea, but I think I would like to see those figures back in the mix.
What bothers me is Winston Peters picking up so much of the vote that wants this whole business of land being sold to foriegners stopped, seem to think he will actually put his foot down and make it an issue. Hey, he' likely have one hell of a lot more real clout than ACT did with charter schools. Please read that last sentence with a cynical eye
The Horizon poll also out is actually really interesting
http://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/page/361/majority-thi
Most people expect National to lead the next Government, but also most people want Labour to lead the next Government.
There is so much that can be read into those results.
Looking at the trends it seems rather close, a big change over the year before the last election where National led.
The Q is will ppl bother voting if the think National will win no matter what.
meanwhile National has been chopping out jobs in what I would have imagined was National voting fodder. Funny how losing your job as a middle manager can change your perspective...
regards
Really? That type of statement shows a rather biased and totally irrational opinion about what voters use their vote for.
If I were so biased in the other direction. I could suggest Act voters are the only true believers and Key is only interested in power at any cost. Pragmatism is the supreme method used. Mind you, it always has been for the National party since Sid Holland.
If I had to summerise what Labour stands for in a few words it would be:
Handouts to the useless.
Im just old enough to have seen this play out before, National gets in power, balances the books, gets us back to surplus, does all the responsible stuff. Then in charges Labour promising hand outs for everyone (don't worry about where the money will come from) and gets into power and racks up.the debt to pay election promises.
If Labour are still relevant answer me this, why are they losing so much of the left vote to the Greens and so much of the centre to National?
They are dinosaurs, still thinking people want more tax, a nanny state and unions ruling the economy.
I think not, 30+% seems closer to the mark, so more like 1 in 3.
Then the Greens clock 14% ish....
Mana isnt likely to go anywhere but Labour.
That looks pretty close to 50%.
National's commited friends? Act will survive? probably not, or really it shows up that electorate if they are prepared to vote for what amounts to criminals no matter what.
Then maybe National will hand the kooky Conservatives a seat they have no hope of winning for themselves?
Some morals, maths and democracy from the right eh what....
regards
Eh? I think you might be making a slightly reality defying commment there. To get there you are presumably multiply the percentage who vote labour by the percentage who are not undecided then rounding way, way down. A better way of putting it would be Labour as a party have long-term had about 2/3rds the support that National as a party has had.
The amazing thing is that Labour are polling at all - they're back about the Bill Rowling stage. Obviously Cunliffe is a product of his upbringing - which goes even further back if I've got it right. Parker "I can'r believe we're running out of oil" is a wasted space unless he 'gens up', and that's what I told Curran she was, last time we discussed the future. She thinks "we have a wonderful country, and we should share it with others" - which obviously would make it an unwonderful country like the ones they want to leave.
So until they get with the programme, they are irrelevant. What that says about their support, is that it must be traditional, and getting older.
Im following D. Cunliffe's facebook page and its amazingly disconnected from reality, so old school is like a repeat of the 1960s My only hope is voting Green may see a decent % of MPs in Govn at least with their eyes a bit open, unlike Labour who have them as tightly welded shut as National.
"support", if the replies to DC's facebook are anything to go by, blinkered, desperate, disconnected and un-realistic.
"curran" well when ppl start to mass migrate for food her wish may come true. Such a disconect from reality means its being left to nature, thanks leadership.
regards
I saw Cunliffe speak at an anti TPPA march on queen street. He only spoke to us by coincidence as there was a working wage march going on at the same time. Seems to connect to the proletarian unionist but nobody else.. yet. Shame, I think he an Russel Norman are both quite intelligent and articulate. They could make some changes for the better.
... by a strange twist of fate , David Cunliffe's family fortune fell into a trust account ( without his knowledge , of course ) , and he's gonna be largely immune from all those taxes he's chomping at the bit to unleash upon you Mr Zz .... you and your nasty rich mates .... so he can gift oodles more of free money to the needy , WFF recipients , students wanting an interest free loan ....
And Cunny is now using the word " mate " .... anyone else picked up on this ? ... mate this , mate that .... gidday mate .... good on you , mate ...
... he's got my vote now , mate !
That's a really disingenuous comment GBH. You lambast Labour because you perceive them to be inept at handling the economy, but then you attack Cunliffe for making economically sound personal financial decisions? Cunliffe's a wealthy individual and I'd question his business acumen if he didn't have a trust.
Meanwhile John Key who can do no wrong makes a complete botch of the Twai Point corporate hand out is perceived as providing prudent economic guidance. As for the "Mate" thing. How many times have I heard JK patronizingly say "Oh look, I think most New Zealanders will agree with me.... GCSB, asset sales, TPPA, selling grandma blah" humbug!
... nope , it's a most undisingenuous comment I made ... unlike the grass root supporters of Labour , Cunny is a rich man ... not as rich exactly as Jolly Kid .... but rich enough to leave him well distanced from average voters ... and well cleverer with his personal finances than he wishes for us to know ... as the public relations shamozzle over his trust account demonstrated ... ... mate !
Not sure why you say " John Key who can do no wrong " .... you may adore the bloke , but I never have , and never will .... never voting for him , neither ..
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