A combination of fewer Kiwis leaving and more people arriving from overseas is seeing the net inflow of permanent and long term migrants continuing.
Statistics New Zealand said that in November the country had a seasonally adjusted net gain (more arrivals than departures) of 2800 migrants.
This is the first drop in the numbers of net gains since July and compares with the 10-year high of 3000 net inbound migrants in October.
However, the figures remain strong. If the last three months gains are averaged and then annualised this gives a current inbound rate of 34,000 - which is heading toward historic highs.
ASB economist Daniel Smith said strong net migration has been highlighted recently by both the Treasury and the RBNZ as a key factor in NZ’s economic outlook.
"Strong inflows will add to domestic demand and place further pressure on supply-constrained housing markets in Auckland and Christchurch. While additional workers may ease some capacity pressures, especially with regard to the Canterbury rebuild, the net effect is likely to be higher interest rates than otherwise would have been the case."
Stats NZ said the seasonally adjusted net loss of 1000 migrants to Australia in November 2013 was just up from the previous month (900). Apart from small increases in the last two months, the net loss to Australia has fallen steadily since December 2012 (3300).
In the November 2013 year, migrant arrivals numbered 93,000, the highest since the November 2003 year (93,400). New Zealand had a net gain of 19,500 migrants, compared with a net loss of 1600 in the previous year.
Seven of New Zealand's 16 regions had net gains of migrants, led by Auckland (9600) and Canterbury (4300). Net migration was higher than in the November 2012 year in all regions.
In the latest year, New Zealand's net loss to Australia dropped to 22,100 migrants, compared with 38,800 a year earlier. Net gains were recorded from most other countries, led by the United Kingdom (5900), China (5600), and India (5300).
The Christchurch rebuild has seen more people coming in on work-related visas, while the fewer numbers going to Australia reflect that fact that at the moment the Australian economy is not viewed favourably compared with New Zealand's immediate prospects.
The strong pace of net inbound migration will inevitably put more pressure on New Zealand's heated housing market, particularly in the very hot Auckland market - as generally around half inbound migrants settle in the country's largest city, at least initially.
The highest net inflow ever recorded was 42,500 in the May 2003 year. The highest net outflow was 43,600 in the July 1979 year.
Meanwhile Visitor arrivals to New Zealand numbered 251,100 in November 2013, a new November record. The number of arrivals rose 8% from November 2012, with holidaymakers accounting for most of the increase.
"New Zealand welcomed 15,200 more holidaymakers compared with the same time last year," Stats NZ's population statistics project manager Susan Hollows said.
"These extra visitors came mostly from Australia, the United States, and Germany."
In the November 2013 year, visitor arrivals rose 5% from the previous year to reach 2.7 million. More visitors came from Australia (up 52,700), China (up 36,400), and the United States (up 19,000).
New Zealand residents departed on 171,300 overseas trips in November 2013, down 1% from November 2012. Over the year, New Zealand residents took 2.189 million trips, up 1% from the previous year. The most common destinations were Australia (1.005 million), the United States (140,800), Fiji (110,100), and the United Kingdom (96,300).
Net long term migration
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11 Comments
In an over-simplification of this picture we could say :
- Thats a NET gain of 4 new people an hour
- or the need for 1 new averaged size NZ house per hour
- every hour
- 24 hours a day
- 7 days a week
- 4 .33 weeks a month
- 12 months a year
Where are they staying?
With families already here?
Ignoring the current housing market , Prices , etc , are we even actually able to house all these folk ?
If you build it, they will come. I am not talking about houses. I'm talking about a fair society, which New Zealand has long been and probably will not divert too far in future. People come here or return here with their Kiwi dreams if you like.
New Zealand's problems (low productivity, waterway pollution etc) are originated from lack of people. Some people say NZ does not have capacity to hold extra # of people. I do not buy that, not if the extra people have their Kiwi dreams and means/resources, and determinations to achieve them.
Please think a bit deeper. Everyone knows that dairy cows cause waterway pollution. More specific, dairy cows that are not housed cause waterway pollution.
And then, you will need to ask why so many dairy cows -- becasue of there ain't any other rural businesses as profitable as dairy, and there are far more land than people.
But, what If NZ had enough people to change NZ's econ structure, and convert dairy land to other uses that generate more profit and employ more people.
That is why I said "Waterway pollution due to LACK of people".
then what "everyone knows" is wrong.
as will become more clear now that so many waterways have been fenced off. Instead of cows grazing them they can become the weed strewn rotting cesspools of yesteryear.
Any way if pollution is such as issue, why not ban fossil fuel burning?
Thanks but no thanks Xing, you might be used to jostling with others everywhere you go, but us kiwis still like our open spaces, beaches with few people on them, plenty of us see this has been fairly well destroyed in many areas already. I for one sure would like it capped now.
And if it were more profitable grow veges and fruit on the land we'd be doing it now, I wish it was
If there is one single factor that will push house prices higher, regardless of interest rates, it is strong net migration numbers. The immense pressure that a net migration gain of 30,000 plus will put on the housing market, particularly in Auckland should not be underestimated.
LVR, additional new housing and higher interest rates will be no match for a net migration gain that looks like it will be stronger than anything we have seen in decades.
ZZ. The only way to stop immigrants buying NZ property is not to let them into the country in the first place. The way to stop NZ'ers inflating the same market is to raise interest rates to double digits. Neither will happen tho and we will see GFC x2: nowadays, governments cannot see past the quick and easy moves to open immigrant floodgates, debase the currency, encourage housing inflation and the consumption thereof. Bollard allowed the NZ money supply to double in the seven years from 2003 to facilitate all this - and the lunacy continues apace.
EP
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