Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news the week before Christmas will be full for data wonks.
It is a week of very big key data releases and policy announcements. On Tuesday, we get the Half Year Economic and Fiscal update from Treasury, followed by the Budget policy statement from the Government. The surplus track will be the key point.
Across the ditch, the new Aussie government gave up over the weekend on returning to a surplus, saying they just have too many issues at present.
On Wednesday we get our September current account, followed on Thursday by the Q3 GDP result.
In between and early on Thursday morning the US Fed will report, and all eyes will be on whether they will be tapering or not.
Then on Friday, we will get details on November's migration levels.
All of these things could affect our currency, and influence how the RBNZ thinks about its late January OCR decision. Markets have priced in a hike in the first quarter of 2014. Of more immediate import, markets seem to have accepted the Fed will taper on Thursday.
Elsewhere, in China they have confirmed their intention to turn urbanisation into a powerful engine to drive growth and remake the economy, saying they will encourage rural residents to move to smaller cities, rather than megacities.
It focused on urbanisation and heavy industry capacity reduction for 2014 in a key four-day economic conference that wrapped up over the weekend. The urbanisation drive may help New Zealand exports; the capacity reduction may hold back the growth of Australia's mineral exports.
The NZ dollar starts today at 82.6 USc, 92.3 AUc, and the TWI is at 77.9, its highest level in a month.
The easiest place to stay up with today's event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »
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2 Comments
Its probably the right thing for Aus to give up the budget surplus idea ( for a while at least) .
Every family knows that budgeting for a surplus means austerity , its no different for a Government.
Less government spending is not so good if your are facing a bullet .
Here's my rationale :
About 200,000 to 250,000 jobs are on the line over the next few years as Ford and GM Holden wind down their assembly businesses their .
The domino effect on downstream businesess could be terrible .
Everthing from the caterers at the plants , to parts suppliers , cleaning contacotrs , transporters , shippers , local doctors , services providers , retailers and the like will are in for a rough ride.
This is a potentially catastrophic scenario for Australian employment , and restraints caused by tight government fiscal policy wont help .
Depending on how things unfold , Australia may need a stimulatory economic policy instead of trying to get to surplus
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