Monthly net permanent migration to New Zealand was negative in March for the first month since November 2008 due to a jump in Christchurch residents leaving the quake-hit city, figures from Statistics New Zealand show.
Seasonally adjusted figures showed net 530 people left New Zealand to live permanently overseas as the number of people leaving Christchurch doubled from February to 1,100 in March, Stats NZ said.
Overall arrivals of permanent migrants had outnumbered departures by the same margin in February.
Australia was the most common destination for Christchurch residents, with 600 people leaving the city to go across the Tasman in March, up from 200 in February, Stats NZ said.
Meanwhile, unadjusted numbers show a net 3,584 people left New Zealand to live permanently in Australia in March, a record high for the month of March since 1981.
In March 4,365 New Zealand citizens left to live permanently in Australia (141 per day) while 817 returned, giving a net 3,548. The 3,584 total net migration referred to above includes non-citizens.
Some pressure off housing market
ASB economist Jane Turner said the figures showed New Zealanders fled to Australia due to the February quake. The negative net migration in March would also help take pressure off the housing market, she said.
"Before the earthquake, the trend of New Zealanders relocating to Australia was already in place, given Australia’s economic outperformance. However, the February earthquake has added substantially to the momentum, with the number of departures to Australia almost back to previous highs (on a seasonally-adjusted basis)," Turner said.
"Note, these are not people looking to temporarily escape the disruption in Christchurch, these are people who are planning to not return within the next 12 months. Australia was not the only country Cantabrians left for, with departures to India, China and other Asia also surging in March (ASB seasonally-adjusted estimates). This suggests family connections played a large part in the decision to leave," she said.
"The increased number of departures does help alleviate pressure on the housing supply, which is now severely compromised following the February earthquake."
Meanwhile a drop-off in short-term visitor arrivals in March suggested there was likely to be substantial disruption to the tourism industry due to the February quake.
"This comes as a particularly painful blow as foreign visitor spending in NZ has been declining over the past year due to lower average spend-per-visitor. In addition, the high NZD may act as a further deterrent to potential visitors over the next year. Nonetheless, the Rugby World Cup will help provide a temporary boost over the second half of the year," Turner said.
"The sharp drop in visitor arrivals and impact on tourism, along with the negative migration outflow, reinforces the RBNZ’s case for lower interest rates following the earthquake," she said.
(Updates with chart, ASB comment.)
Net long term migration
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17 Comments
FYI from a reader via email
What would be the ramifications of NOT rebuilding Christchurch? What if a whacking great 3~4 lane highway was built instead (or railway tracks) to Lyttleton (or wherever need be). Christchurch may be unsettled for years and the procrastination/inability of anyone to make a decision I think will mean the rebuild estimate of $16b is a tad shy of the mark. If it's over 15 years, then surely it'd be more like $100b or probably more. If it ever gets started this year, that is. Otherwise, add more to my guess. Interested to hear your comments
cheers
Bernard
Some centuries ago in Central America the Spanish were faced with a similar dilema. One of the cities that they had founded suffered a huge Earthquake and it was devastated... they chose to build the citi in a diferent location and they left behind the most uncredible monuments, buildings and cathedral, they realized that the ground was not fit for building, You can visit the ruins today.
Two personal observations.
The first observation relates to the still-evolving science of Plate Tectonics. Quite clearly the Pacific Plate is on the move towards the Alps. Natural way to go. Always has been. But those two deep seated old extinct volcanic cones (Banks Peninsular) are clearly acting as retarding brakes. The Pacific Plate will surely win this shallow (average 6km deep) 'battle'. But for a while, until that 'war' is won, the Eastern side of Christchurch will be a miserable place to reside.
The second observation relates to my father's (about) 1950 answer to a question. We lived in Papanui. Our bach was at New Brighton. I once asked him during this journey "where are the houses"? He replied "No one will ever build on this land. It is just sand-hills and swamp".
Well Dad - can you hear me up there? They did build all over those sand-hills and swamp. They simply compacted a metre of clay over the top. And now, each time the Pacific Plate does its best to move those volcanic cones, that swampland reverts further into - well - real swamp. And the Avon River bed rises. All will be level in the end. Natural way to go. Braided flood plain. A perfect wetland for the birds. Which is precisely what it was in the beginning!
Bernard, this is a no brainer. Just get on with rebuilding all of the parts of Christchurch that are built on good solid ground. And that land is very easy to identify. The areas that suffered limited damage.
Open letter to Gerry Brownlee
Gerry - please accept some over-the-top advise.
- Rezone Hagley Park as commercial.
- Employ the Infinity Group to oversee anti liquefaction work on the park land.
- Let Bob (from Infinity Group) loose on planning a new City Centre on Hagley Park.
- When this is complete - demolish most of the old city centre - keeping the best.
- Infinity Group then oversees liquefaction work on the old city centre site.
- Create a massive new Hagley Park that has destination buildings sited in interesting ways - all connected by tramway.
Disclaimer. I have never met Bob. I have zero connection to any part of Infinity Group. I have just observed the obvious. Zero earthquake problems at their Pegasus Town. Absolutely amazing.
Pegasus Town is a disaster waiting to happen. It is built on extremely low-lying land, some parts below sea-level. It has simply been fortunate that the earthquakes are some 40kms to the South. A good rattle near Pegasus will soon prove that low lying land, with clay compaction on top wants to return to swamp.
You should talk to Multiplex, the contractors and the lenders to the developer about the costs associated with compacting that soil - it was not cheap and not to original budget.
Bob is far from a ideas man.
Pegasus was originally a Howard Paterson idea.
Isn't the real question: "What is it that we do in Christchurch, that can't be done elsewhere?". If the answer is "Very little!", then those that re-establish business elsewhere, won't relocate back; and those persons that leave, won't go back either. Looks like Christchurch and, say, Timaru are about to swap places.
You have to ask yourself what determines Chch's size as a city. This article suggests that in Queensland, building is an end in itself not a part of in the formation of a larger economy? Substitute Queensland for New Zealand.
April 12, 2011
Thousands of jobs will be lost under new capped infrastructure charges announced today by the Bligh Government, according to the Property Council.
Speaking at the Building Revival Forum in Brisbane, Queensland Premier Anna Bligh outlined wide ranging changes to local government charges on new development in Queensland.
“This is a devastating decision for all Queenslanders,” Mac Dermott says.
She says the property industry is not only the biggest contributor to Gross State Product (12.6 percent) and directly employs around 280,000 Queenslanders, but draws a considerable amount of tax.
“The property industry is the single largest contributor to State taxes – providing $3.8 billion, or one third of the State’s total tax revenue.
“In addition to this, local governments across the State collect over $4 billion in rates and charges.”
Arguing for more of a focus on economic survival rather than revival, Mac Dermott says she is concerned that between 2006-07 and 2009-10 the value of residential and non-residential building activity in Queensland declined by 2.6 percent.
“Over the same period NSW and Victoria recorded 21.4 and 26.7 percent increases respectively,” she says.
On the employment front, Mac Dermott says the State Government’s own figures show that over 11,000 construction jobs were lost in 2010 alone.
“After this morning’s announcement, we can expect thousands and thousands of jobs to be lost in 2011.”
http://www.qbr.com.au/news/articleid/73217.aspx
IT COULD take years for land values in some of Brisbane's flood-hit suburbs to claw their way back with the latest valuations showing significant drops in many affected areas.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/property/land-values-to-remain-lower-in-b…
The people in the liquification zones of Chch have suffered badly yet people with cosmetic damage (eg alog gib) are getting $11,000 pay outs from EQC because (as when you ding the car) the paint needs to match.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/christchurch-earthquake/4930207/Quake-exodus-fears-not-realised
"The study found that population levels were likely to change by no more than 2 per cent in the year after the quake and could even increase as construction workers arrived for the rebuilding effort."
For those of you that shave I hope you don't use a cut-throat, if so, please, please, be careful or maybe consider going electric - until you cheer up a bit!
Check out some of the recovery stories here:
There is more to Christchurch and Canterbury than many seem to think, cheer up. Sure we have problems, but there is more up and generating cash than there is down and burning it.
Cheers, Les.
Sure Speckles, it's not all doom and gloom, but it ain't all sweetness and light either and our problems shouldn't end up under the carpet:
How does this affect confidence?
So let's get this straight based on some of today's stats releases. Net migration is significantly negative. Tourism numbers are down significantly on already low numbers. House prices are down. Building consents are way down.
Tourism / real estate / building construction and supporting sectors collectively represent a big proportion of the NZ economy.
Yet despite all these facts economists still think our economy and house prices are staging a significant recovery????
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