Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with Bank of New Zealand, including news the death of Osama bin Laden caused a brief rally on global stock markets and the US dollar.
The oil price fell immediately on hopes the death of the leader of Al Qaeda may ease Middle East tensions and improve oil supply security. But within a few hours those hopes had evaporated as markets realised little has changed in the global economic outlook or in oil supply output.
America is still borrowing to pay for two major wars and its economy is still struggling to recover from under a mountain of debt. North African and Middle Eastern turmoil is unrelated to Al Qaeda and Chinese/Indian demand for restricted oil supplies continues to mount.
The Dow and S&P 500 initially rose as much as 0.5% as Americans celebrated the death of the mastermind of the 9-11 attacks. But in late trade the markets were flat. See a markets wrap here at CNN.
The oil price initially fell sharply but was down just 0.4% in late New York trade. See more here at Bloomberg.
Signs that US factory output was weaker in April than March also weighed on sentiment, although the result in the Institute of Supply Management was better than expected.
Elsewhere, Stuff reported notorious low-ball share offeror Bernard Whimp as saying he had retired after the Financial Markets Authority used tougher powers on its first day to impose new disclosure requirements on Whimp. He is thought to have made profits of more than NZ$2 million by buying shares directly and cheaply from shareholders in widely held stocks.
Meanwhile, the silver price slumped from record highs after changes to margin rules. See more here at Bloomberg.
Elsewhere, the US dollar weakened in late trade to multi-year lows as investors continued to worry about US interest rates being stuck at 0% until early next year at the earliest, fueling inflation and devaluing the world's reserve currency.
The Australian dollar rallied briefly to a post-float high over US$1.10 and the New Zealand dollar was solid over 80 USc.
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4 Comments
here's a 'stand back and think' er:
http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/04/chinese-inflation-and-next-recess…
I'm starting to think we are going to have a crash similar to 2007, whenever the commodity bubble pops. The difference is that it will be much more difficult this time for central bankers to "prime the pump". I really enjoyed that Keynes v Hayek rap as I feel the current approach is not working. Assuming I'm right, how do I save for the future?
Property? Over-valued in NZ and Australia since 2004. I don't want a house in the US or Ireland. It could be very expensive to have future debt.
Gold and silver? Market dominated by speculators and asset doesn't truly grow. Current price has to be hgher than long-term mean.
CDOs? Who trusts those?
US bonds and shares while the NZ$ is high? Maybe but economy there looks stuffed and there are high transaction costs.
Short term investments? With inflation high, much of the real return is paid in tax on the nominal gains.
NZ and Aust shares/bonds? Would need to be something blue-chip that won't fall too much in a recession. Things that consumers do not stop buying.
A quote on bail-outs by Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting with shareholders :
" It's one thing to bail-out an institution that has social value , but another thing entirely to bail out it's shareholders and managers . I think that any institution that requires bailing out by society should see it's CEO and it's spouse left dead broke ".
.......... reckon there's a message for our Wild Bill English in that little spray ?
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