Here is a quick snapshot of some key news and data overnight.
The pre-'Heartland Bank' partner entity has gotten an investment grade credit rating of BBB-. Their banking licence application will be made in Q3.
Is 2011 "The year of the bubble"? - William Pesek thinks it is. Hard to argue ...
How could Goldman Sachs possibly make any money investing in Facebook at a valuation so high? Most people can't see it, but hey, its Goldman Sachs. Here's one view of how it will probably work out well for them, even if their 'ordinary investors' get shafted. (They've got 7 days to decide.)
Pimco's Bill Gross says "fear the consequences of mindless US deficit spending" - especially if you are a bond investor.
The Aussie's see building approvals decline - their housing sector tottering ?
more below ...
| 8 am | --- 52 week -- | |||||||
| Today | yesterday | high | low | |||||
| -------- | -------- | --------- | --------- | |||||
| FX rates | NZ$1=US$ | 0.7574 | 0.7614 | 0.7964 | 0.6584 | |||
| NZ$1=AU$ | 0.7611 | 0.7613 | 0.8212 | 0.7408 | ||||
| Gold | in US$ | 1,372 | 1,368 | 1,421 | 1,058 | |||
| in NZ$ | 1,811 | 1,797 | 1,877 | 1,507 | ||||
| Copper | in US$ | 9,461 | 9,754 | 9,740 | 6,091 | |||
| in NZ$ | 12,491 | 12,811 | 12,811 | 8,951 | ||||
| Crude oil | in US$/bl | 88.44 | 90.52 | 91.45 | 70.15 | |||
| in NZ$ | 116.77 | 118.89 | 121.36 | 101.30 | ||||
| US Treasuries | 30 yr bond | 4.55% | 4.44% | 4.78% | 3.61% | |||
| Dow | DJIA 30 | 11,697 | 11,729 | 11,729 | 9,614 | |||
Fewer Americans filed for unemployment insurance payments last month than for any month since July 2008.
According to a key government spokesman, Japan's financial situation is "approaching the edge of a cliff". Is this the future the debt-laden West is consigned to?
No chart with that title exists.
50 Comments
David, good find on the William Pesek blog, I like the quote of his:
"The real perceptions bubble is that a disparate grouping of 20 nations can tame out-of-whack markets and imbalances that were decades in the making. The year ahead might turn any, or all, of these accepted wisdoms on their head."
2011 will be an interesting year - home and abroad.
Money Morning once again exposing the aussie banks..NAB and Westpac keeping secrets from shareholders and the market and the govt and the public.....what a stonking great pile of shite. makes you wonder just how cosy the RBNZ is with the banks in NZ....what secrets are kept from us?
"The highest youth unemployment rate in 20 years is an indictment on the National Government, says Labour's Youth Affairs spokesperson Jacinda Ardern." voxy.co
Jacinda is developing the first signs of a serious memory loss...or she is just being downright dishonest.....how easily she leaves out any comment about the current economic pigswill being the consequence of 9 years of idiotic Labour under Helen "don't argue with me" Clark.
Not to leave it at that, Jacinda demands the govt spend more on improving the skills of the unemployed youth and on creating employment for them......no mention of the fiscal deficit...of course not....does she understand anything about the current problem at all...probably not.
Yes , Jacinda , it is entirely National's fault ............. ahem .......... I mean , Ardern !
And why not go back to the Muldoonism options , it worked so well then didn't it , to get youth unemployment down ............ Nasella tussock grubbing in North Canterbury ! That was a nifty scheme to get the youngsters into the fresh air , wildly swinging mattocks in all directions .............. Jobs that inspire . And that last ......... A governmental " career " ..........
............. Damn silly of me to think that a bouyant private sector was the way to create long-lasting and meaningful jobs . ............ Fool , Gummy ............Leave it to Nanny State , she knows best ....... or pest ! Break out the mattocks , guys .
Trouble is that a bouyant private sector is so focussed on short term profit that they refuse to employ young people as they have no EXPERIENCE.....
The problem is NOT the government
Is NOT the young people - most who want to work
Is the greedy, short term focussed private sector who are NOT willing to invest in the future and for the long term by taking on these people.
PROBLEM IS THE SO CALLED PRIVATE SECTOR IN NZ - short term - quick buck - quick profit - in and out - that is why most of our country and its productive elements are owned by foriegners or moved offshore.
Kiwi private sector is incapable of thinking about the future
That is incorrect - I have been, and am now - and if you have a medium term focus in decision making you can afford to take on entry level people. You may get one or two duds - but in each intake - you find the diamonds - and they are worth all of the duds put together and then some.
But the cancer of civil society - capitalism - does not value the medium term focus - only short term profit and gain.
Well it must have been a pretty dysfunctional business, I can think of a few dozen private business here in NZ I have worked with that are more balanced than you suggest.
It is a fact of life that there are bad employers as well as bad employees. The flip side is also out there. You point of view was all one way which an't realistic.
The " cancer " that is eating into the fabric of NZ society is social-welfarism .
Unless there is a profit motive , there is no growth nor innovation . ...... All that is left is the government bureaucracy , and the recycling of taxation monies through their departments to their pet projects or recipients .
The 4 million citizens of NZ are wiser in their daily decisions of their needs and how to satisfy them , than the 122 in parliament ......
..... Private sector rules............ Public service fools.............
Wolly - I’m not with you on this. Despite missing brilliant changes by the previous government to increase production, the current government has similar changes to stimulate production. Billions of dollars are leaving the country because of quality imports, in stead of allocating more frequently orders to NZcompanies. Particularly now in difficult times, looking after our NZworkforce should come first.
They are trapped by their silly decision to promise their way to office..."we won't undo Helen's benefit empire or other stuff". National's gamble that the GFC would be solved without damage to economies...ours!...crapped out.
They cannot return the economy to the bubble splurging madness. Only that madness kept the unemployment rate down. It kept Clark and Cullen at the pig trough.
There will be no huge expansion in youth employment especially of unskilled unqualified children. The rural sector continues to move toward high tech low labour input systems. The jobs will not come there. The rural sector is not rushing to town to blow the higher returns because they expect matters to do an about face any day. As well a good deal of the income is going straight to the banks. Such consumer sector jobs are never secure anyway.
Tourism will soak up some of them but probably only the fresh school leavers with qualifications especially in languages. The manufacturing sector is small and growth means exporting and that means trouble and risk. Why are you not starting up a manufacturing industry in kaikoura...plenty of unemployed down there Walter!
A few economic shocks came along and now its a hard to cruse to the next election.
NZ businesses, generally, in relative terms has not had not too a challenging time to date (with few except - especially Retail/Canterbury etc.) Not many businesses here have gone through the wild swing in ecomomic forces that have been felt overseas.
I never forget strategy sucessions in the States in 2008 where boards poored over ther business model which had lost 40% of sale in a month and demand was still dropping off. What to do... what to do....
Happy New Year, Wolly.
Is unskilled unqualified children a relative description do you think? It's just that in my younger days there were well-paid jobs for those people, and they were qualified...then. And wealth distibution was more equitable and fair. Quite common, in fact, to go down the Abel Tasman and be drinking with a university professor, a wharfie, a post office worker, a shop assistant , a teacher and an out-of-work poet. Forget the economy...unless we get that back we're fecked.
I agree with your analysis of the prospects for out-of-work youth, now, especially in the context of bullshite legal entities driven by the profit motive combined with exponential advances in technology and innovation. That confluence of malicious circumstances is a national and international tragedy because in some people's eyes it's the unemployed's fault and will only cease to be their fault when those with a reading age over 15 are themselves unemployed. In the meantime those children and their children will pose no small threat to social cohesion. The anger and resentment being stoked by self-righteous finger pointing might be more widely feared were we all still drinking together.
So where do you think we'll be in 50 years time? Will there be anything that a machine will not be able to do better, and cheaper than a person? Will it even be possible for the cleverest human being to come close to a droid? Because in my case, I don't believe someone of my limited physical and intellectual abilities will have a snowball's chance in hell of 'employment' under the current global economic model freed of current technological restrictions.
Tinkering around the edges is not going to cut it. Time for some bolder thinking. The first bit is easy: The proposition that 'employment' is a coming anachronism and a national conversation about how we will act in response.
And to you Haggis....may you have many years of drinking left in you. I got a bit carried away with the 'children' bit....ok...but we can't go back to the past Haggis....life is what it is....Check out the Rural news section here and read about the Dairy employment situation down south.....then tell me something is not very wrong. Is it maybe a consequence of too much socialist BS during the Clark madness!...who knows.
To answer your question first - of the same reason, why you are not shifting the beehive to Blenheim - Wolly.
As a small country NZmanufacturing/ research needs to be centralised preferably near a bigger city/ port- Dunedin/ Tauranga/ Auckland.
http://www.highbrook.co.nz/default.asp?s1=Business
In the current worldwide environment, better export opportunities, free market mechanism, innovation, entrepreneurialism etc. arise the better NZmanufacturing is structured. Only solid, established NZmanufacturing provide good logistic solutions.
In stead of importing in the billions, ordering infrastructure needs, especially in sector like Telecommunication, Energy and Transport with NZcompanies would positively change the landscape of manufacturing in this country.
It is important to add new segments in order to achieve stability in our economy. Our rather fragile, small selection of industry sectors such as agriculture, tourism and real estate of different reasons, pose a great risk.
The list of advantages, like I described many time of solid and sustainable NZmanufacturing is almost endless – just 4 important ones of many: massive reduction of account deficit, skilful & full employment, independence, national security.
Walter.....imagine you had migrated to the Cook Islands.....would you be asking the same questions.....there is a manufacturing sector on the Cooks...very very small but it exists!
You need to see NZ as being a wee bit larger than the Cooks. Then you will grasp the problems.
The manufacturing that is likely to do well in NZ will either supply local demand in a cost effective manner, or produce something of high quality wanted overseas. Scott Technology is an example as is Fisher Health.
Let the market determine the success or failure of the sector Walter...ask only for limited red tape and honest free trade agreements...for good infrastructure and an end to the residential property focus of the banks.
I'll bet you are wearing something made in China!....or have said stuff in the closet....why?
Blenheim has its very own 'Beehive' thanks to a foolish council some years back. The round building has never failed to be a bloody pain in the #@$% for all.
Wolly – your comment sounds strange. You are quick in making all sorts of accusations against government, (which I most agree with) but when it really matters
spending billions out of the country in stead into our own economy
– no it doesn’t work.
How to you tackle youth unemployment, unskilled work, brain drainage, account deficit (of course red tape etc. must go), one sided & risky economy sectors = unbalance economy, national unsecurity, economic dependence etc. - in correlation to worldwide instability on many fronts ?
Bang on Wolly. Also Walter doesnt seem to acknowledge the unintended consequences of shutting the NZ economy. How for example are the existing NZ manufacturers who are presently doing very well into the much bigger and more prosperous Australian market going to fare when they are recipricaly banned from exporting to there.
Indeed you do have some ideas about lifting the NZ economy but unfortuately when ive asked you specific questions about unintended consequences of said ideas you are silent.
Again Walter, how can we essentially close off the NZ economy and still expect our existing exporters access to foriegn markets ie the example of NZ manufacturers into Australia?
Whilst you have a point about NZs narrow economic base namely Agriculture and tourism it has to be said that both those sectors are currently doing very well and NZs terms of trade are improveing. Food production now and into the foreseeable future is a great space to be in.
For example you will have noted Fonterra lifting its forecast payout 30c/kg before xmas and subsequently the GDT auction prices rising another 7%, The beef schedule rose yesterday at a time of year when its normaly declineing and tourist numbers as you yourself have commented continue to be resiliant. The New York times has just named us the second best tourist destination for 2011 behind New York itself, so clearly we have an excellent product.
Of course we are not perfect but who is? Again I have challenged you to give examples of countries who's policies you advocate at work but again silence.
Yes, lets pusch for better and more disaplined govt and support NZ companies where we can all things being equal but IMHO your ideas face a substantial risk of throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
On occasion where arguments don’t make sense - I don’t comment.
Why should allowing NZ developing it’s own quality & solid manufacturing industry stop other countries importing our agriculture goods ? This is crazy. Trade relations among countries are an important issue and need to be negotiated A balanced and healthy NZeconomy also. Looking into the facts - Sheep Shagger how much longer to you think NZ should crawl along - providing the world market under slavery jobs. As a nation we have to move upright.
Walter, I specificaly used the example of NZ manufactureing exports into Australia, purposely no mention of agriculture.
Your suggestions would contrivene the longstanding CER agreement. How would you get around that? My point being you seem to want to eat your cake and have it too, namely by restricting foreign companies access to NZ but expecting NZ companies to retain their current trade access.
Please enlighten me.
Sheep Shagger most western countries are suffering under the same symptoms - simply not enough production - not enough manufacturing – we are all sitting in the same boat. I’m sure on the base of trade relationships among western nation this is a talking point. Now - from the NZeconomic position - please answer my questions and keep reading my many previous articles before commenting.
Walter,I clearly do read your posts and am trying to tease out of you some answers to some rather fundamental questions. Please dont go all defensive on me, im only trying to form an opinion as to the merits of your ideas.."im sure a base of trade relationships amoung western nations is a talking point". What the bloody hell does that mean? Can you not see my frustration? How can I or others really get my head around your ideas when you quote such vauge answers when challenged.
Sorry i have no time to learn this arvo as im off to play cricket but hopefully you will see fit to walk me throughyour answers at some stage.
This was written relating to 'affluenza' among rich kids, however it is relevant to all sectors of society. I believe that parents today (including BBs) have much to answer for in the attitudes of younger generations. The last one is the one I find a number of parents find the hardest.
So what are traits he found to beat off "affluenza"?:
* Strong family role models, particularly grandparents. Regular contact with extended family tended to reinforce the value systems of earlier generations.
* A commitment to family time - meals together, house and yard work, school assignments, or vacations, present an opportunity to nourish a child's identity and pass along values.
* The role of a prosperous family business in instilling a work ethic in younger generations, and in keeping those young people close to home.
* A healthy respect for money and hard work, and an awareness that pursuing an engaging occupation and achieving one's goals are vital to well-being.
* Emphasis on philanthropy, volunteerism and job creation. In almost every case, respondent families demonstrated a strong commitment to the welfare of others and worked to instil a social conscience in succeeding generations.
* Detachment from the urge to keep up with the Gettys. Several families bucked societal trends, shunning video games, excess consumption and exclusivity linked to high-income people.
* A willingness to let children find their own way, take responsibility, make their own choices regarding college and career, and learn life's sometimes painful lessons.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion/4502179/Privileged-kids-How-to-…
Here's news that will bring some cheer over here but jeez what pain over there.....
"Eastern Australia's sopping wet summer has set the scene for an "explosion" of imported New Zealand produce, according to growers on that side of the Tasman.
Great swathes of Queensland are under water, and New South Wales and Victoria experienced a wet November-December.
"Cheaper New Zealand labour costs and a low exchange rate already give increasing volumes of fruit and vegetables a price advantage in Australian supermarkets, but the big wet is expected to lure in even more New Zealand produce to take advantage of local supply shortfalls," an Australian rural news website, Farmonline, reported."harald
Will the floods drive up food costs over here...I think yes.
@ Sheep Shagger 08 January 2011 12:18 pm
In a roundabout way I agree with Kunst. Yes there is a longstanding CER agreement and AU is not playing by the rules so NZ has to "not" play by the rules. Learn from the AU sharp shooters. CER is an agreement between NZ and AU Federal Government. AU is a Federation of States, each with their own incomes from states taxes, and most importantly GST. The GST is apportioned out by the Federal Government to the State Governments to do with as they please, and the States are not strictly party to the CER agreement. Every large AU manufacturing business plays the States off against one-another to obtain concessions and subsidies, and if they dont get them they fold their tent and re-locate to another State who will provide concessions. A good example is the motor vehicle industry. They get exemptions from payroll taxes, 15 year locked in contracts for electricity, water and gas, direct $ multi-million re-location grants, exemptions from property taxes and property rates. Plus subsequent dont-go-away grants. Tax holidays all over the place. And the cost of it comes out of the state's GST allocation. Under these conditions, the recent $29m purchase of locomotive engines from China versus the Dunedin Railway workshops tender of $56m would not have happened. The equivalent "State of Dunedin" would have prostituted itself to get the business. Every Holden Commodore or Ford Falcon imported into NZ has massive subsidies, in addition to the domestic "clunker stimulus" benefit of 2009 and 2010. How much in subsidies does Fonterra's manufacturing plants receive by way of land rates, water rates, electricity? Of course any concessions would be local body and not Central Government. What is the current rate of electricity per kw/h does the Tiwai Point smelter pay compared to the kw/h rate you pay, and how much does Fonterra pay?
In answer to your question re electricity prices I simply dont know although I did have a tour of the Tiwai smelter 10 odd years back and asked that very question and was surprised that they were actually paying more than I was for my irrigation electricity. As I recall they were using the spot market quite abit at the time. To be fair though I dont have a problem with them getting concessions its just standard business practice if your buying in huge quantities.
Im pleased you raised the point about the trains as that was the very topic that got me thinking about Walters ideas. As im now a resident of Otago I was disappointed that the work went to China over our very own well regarded Hillside workshops. However as I thought it through it occured to me the vast difference in price meant in essence we taxpayers were in effect subsidiseing say a couple of hundred workers to the tune of many million dollars to build from memory 300 carriages. After that what would those workers do? There is only so much demand for train carriages in NZ and as the tender prices suggest we are not competitive on a world stage so building an export industry seems unlikely. Is that the basis for a sustainable economy?
Fonterra uses a mix of coal, gas and steam in it's plants, as well as electricity. Wouldn't know what price they pay for it. You might find the link below interesting - but then again you may already have seen it. :-)
http://www.fonterra.com/wps/wcm/connect/fonterracom/fonterra.com/Our+Bu…
SS - valid point re what would the workers do once the train carriages were built. While I have some empathy for what Walter suggests re manufacturing industries, I think we are too far from our markets, to consider heavy manufacturing - that horse has bolted a long time ago.
The other problem is the tooling costs and R&D costs to set up for a small run. These wagons are only a few days production for these chinese plants and the set up costs are spread over 1000's of wagons. NZ's market of 4.5m just cant compete with a market of 1 billion. Our best bet is supplying a small component product, like Rakon supplies the GPS chip for cell phones, rather than trying to manufacture the whole product.
Neville -the other problem are massive and increasing social costs, gangs roaming in the streets not working in factories – unemployment - especially youth unemployment. What is your solution ? Where are the decent job opportunities for a wider NZpopulation ?
Neville, I’m well aware of your points having an engineering background with ABB - former Brown Boveri.
The second section of article 08 Jan 11, 9:29pm and others
clearly shows, why the majority of people judging on manufacturing do not understand or recognise how positive industrial correlations work for people, businesses and other sectors - the long term economic benefit of the country.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PL5xCr7-I4k
.... and people - how to you tackle youth unemployment, unskilled work, social problems, brain drainage, account deficit (of course red tape etc. must go), one sided & risky economy sectors = unbalance economy, national unsecurity, economic dependency etc. - in correlation to worldwide instability on many fronts ?
Thanks iconolast – good to read articles from people, who have inside knowledge.
I really think when governments have to think about austerity measures, all opportunities have to be taken into consideration to lower expenditure, before to put any more burdens on taxpayers. Of course many here have written about red tape and other budgeting measures, on which I agree.
I also agree of a short time pain, allocating orders to NZcompanies for infrastructure needs, but as explained with an enormous long term gain for the nation.
Sheep shagger - Here is a Kunst type NZ-100%-Pure opportunity
In AU a large amount of dairying is conducted within the vicinity of the Murray-Darling river systems. 100 hectares of land without water rights can be purchased for $100k. The same 100 hectares of land with water rights is $1million plus. One dairying irrigator I'm aware of pays AUD $30,000 pa for water rights, plus an additional fee for every 1 gigalitre of water extracted. The bulk of the remainder of dairying is conducted in Queensland which is a long long way from the main NSW and VIC metropolitan areas, in fact further than NZ. If you read the AASA standards for milk you find milk can be 3.3% milk fat and still be called "whole cream" or "full cream" milk .. raw milk from the cow is 4% milk fat .. and so it is exploited. 99% of all milk sold in supermarkets is diluted or extended with "permeate" to about 3% milk fat and still sold as "full cream" milk. Can you see the opportunity? NZ-100%-pure. And guess who one of the largest milk processors is .. you guessed it .. Fonterra.
raw milk from the cow is 4% milk fat.
Milkfat varies between cows and especially between breeds e.g. Jersey cows usually have a higher milkfat content than Friesians. Our farm milk for the last 10 days has milkfat readings of between 5.10% and 5.5% with no two days the same. We have mainly crossbreds in the herd.
One other interesting feature is the irrigators dont use the irrigation contraptions much .. most of the farmers spend a fortune on having the farms "laser graded" .. which increases the value of the land .. large paddocks .. with a slight gradient .. tip the water on at the top and let it flow down to the lower end .. any surplus run off flows into a lower channel for the next guy.
Well spotted Iconoclast, Walter would be pleased but unfortunately under his regime Aussie would have imposed tariff barriers in response to their companies being excluded from tendering for work in NZ.
Perhaps a good suggestion for Casual Observer though, who seems well connected in all things dairy.
Seriously though as a sheep farmer I have lobbied for us to target the Aussie market for lamb/ mutton. The prices they are getting over there are sensational and with the current exchange rate differential and the fact there are half a million Kiwis over there all earning 100k plus a year surely its a no brainer to get in there with our world famous 100%pure grassfed NZ lamb. There is some going over but its only minor. They export alot of beef over here in the winter,spring period so fairs fair.
Interesting about the irrigation set ups. There was alot of border dyke flood irrigation in canterbury but most of it has been replaced because it is inefficent and not accurate enough in comparison with the spray irrigators especially the big pivots.
Bernard : Has Graeme Hart ever featured as an article or an interview here at interest.co.nz ?
I only arsk , 'cos he is the richest man in Australasia ( $US 6 billion in 2009 ) and Forbes ranked him 110'th richest person in the world for that year .
............ and it pleases me no end , that the richest man in Australasia is a Kiwi !
Seemingly , we are ignoring a goldmine of financial brilliance there . From truck driver to 110'th richest man in the world , has gotta be more than just alot of good luck .
"Closed circuit television footage has shown just how quickly a fire erupted through an East Auckland primary school.
Board chairwoman Dawn Garbett said it took three minutes for the fire to rip through 10 classrooms at Glendowie Primary on Friday night. Fire officials, though, believe it had been smouldering away for some time before exploding into a fireball." harald
Which begs the question........was it a death trap and are there any other school buildings in the same condition?
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