The value of New Zealand's goods exports was NZ$723 million higher in October 2010 than the same month a year ago, while the value of imports rose NZ$541 million from October 2009, Statistics New Zealand said today.
As a result the October trade deficit of NZ$319 million, or 8.7% of the value of exports, was less than one-third of the average deficit of 29% of exports over the previous five October months, Stats NZ said.
The October month deficit was smaller than economist expectations of around NZ$400 million, ASB economist Jane Turner said.
The annual trade balance for the year ended October 2010 was a surplus of NZ$1.2 billion, or 2.8% of the value of exports, Stats NZ said. This compared with the average deficit of 14% of exports for the five previous October years.
Turner said the rising annual trade surplus highlighted the export-led recovery that had supported the NZ economy over the past year.
"The recovery in dairy prices has been a large factor in the growing surplus," Turner said. "However, strong demand for other NZ commodities, in particular forestry, has also contributed."
"For the time being, NZ commodity export prices remain at high levels, which should provide support to export incomes over the next year. However, dairy volume growth may potentially weaken this season due to dry weather, and cap the increase in the annual trade balance," she said.
Here is the release from Stats NZ:
October 2010 export goods values were $723 million (24 percent) higher than October 2009, Statistics New Zealand said today. The total value of goods exported in October 2010 was $3.7 billion.
“Strong dairy exports led the increase in October,” overseas trade manager Neil Kelly said. “The trend in export values has been rising since October 2009 and is similar to the previous peak in late 2008.”
The milk powder, butter, and cheese commodity group was the major contributor to the increase in October export values, led by unsweetened whole milk powder.
The total value of goods imported for October 2010 was up $541 million (16 percent) from October 2009, to $4.0 billion.
Crude oil, and vehicles, parts, and accessories, were the leading contributors to the increase in imports.
The trend for imports values has been flat since May 2010 and is 15 percent below its peak in September 2008.
In October 2010, the trade balance was a deficit of $319 million (8.7 percent of the value of exports), less than one-third of the average deficit of 29 percent of exports over the previous five October months. The October trade balance has always been in deficit.
The annual trade balance for the year ended October 2010 was a surplus of $1.2 billion (2.8 percent of the value of exports). This compares with the average deficit of 14 percent of exports for the five previous October years.
(Updates with ASB comment, release from Stats NZ, annual surplus.)
Trade balance, monthly
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8 Comments
The data has yet to catch up with the late winter storm!...and the word is we have a drought developing....and we have PSA....and the expected coal exports have been hammered....and potential tourists are reading of another robbery destroying the holiday of two, who headed here.
I wouldn't get too excited by the dairy prices part.
Dairy export value is up strongly because of record monthly export volumes of butter and milk powders but prices are down about 10% on those from July and August. In that sense the export price pattern is "similar to the previous peak in late 2008".
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