Big jump in net migration as departures to Australia drop off (Update 2)

A notable drop off in departures to Australia saw New Zealand record positive net permanent and long term (PLT) migration of 2,669 in July, compared to 696 in July 2008, figures released by Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ) show. (Update 2 includes chart of NZ citizen arrivals from Australia vs. UK.) The July 2009 net PLT migration figure was the highest July month since 2003. In the calendar year to July net PLT was 9,651, up from a negative 1,020 in same period a year ago and a positive 3,817 in the whole of calendar 2008. The rise was due to a big drop off in PLT departures compared to last year, a trend that has been seen over 2009. There were 8,101 PLT arrivals in July, up from 7,993 in July 2008. Meanwhile there were 5,432 departures, down from 7,297 a year ago. July was the sixth consecutive month in which PLT departures fell by more than 1,000 from the same month a year ago, Stats NZ said. "In July 2009, there were net inflows of migrants from India (900), China (500), Germany, and the United Kingdom (each 300). There was a net outflow of 900 PLT migrants to Australia, down from the outflows of 2,700 in July 2008 and 2,200 in July 2007, and the lowest outflow to Australia for a July month since 2003," Stats NZ said. However, this jump in net migration is driven more by New Zealanders not leaving, New Zealanders returning from Australia, and Indian students arriving, rather than the surge of cashed-up New Zealanders returning home from the UK that helped drive the housing boom through 2002 to 2007. New Zealand citizens arriving home in the last year from all countries has risen 9.1% in the year to July to 25,231, whereas the jump in Kiwis coming back in the year to July 2002 was 16% to 25,032 and a further 7.7% in the year to July 2003 of 26,958. The positive net migration in July was also up from the 730 in June, which saw 5,746 arrivals and 5,016 departures. On a seasonally adjusted basis, PLT arrivals exceeded PLT departures by 2,500 in July 2009, up from 1,600 in June 2009 but similar to the figures for April (2,100) and May (2,600), Stats NZ said. ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley said ASB expects the annual migration net inflow to reach 25,000. "It remains the case that much of the shift is via people not leaving. The direct economic impact of that is faster population growth than otherwise (and support for retail spending) and likely fewer house sales listings or freed-up rental properties than otherwise, Tuffley said. "However, with the Australian economy faring much better than NZ's the weak outflow of migrants to Australia is unlikely to be a permanent sea change," he said.