Net migration hits 6 year high in 2009, largely due to fewer NZers migrating to Australia (Update 1)

Net migration hit a six year high of 21,253 in the year to December, more than quintuple the net migration seen the previous year as the number of New Zealand citizens emigrating to Australia dropped by a third to 32,755 in 2009, Stats NZ reported. (Update 1 includes economist comment.) The number of permanent arrivals actually fell 1,053 or 1% to 86,410, with numbers of UK residents and Indian residents migrating here increasing, partly because of a rise in the number of Indian students. Housing market watchers and the Reserve Bank watch net migration figures closely as an early indicator of demand for housing and the sharp increase in net migration (albeit via less people leaving) has been credited with a rebound in the housing market from March to November, although signs are emerging of a tapering off of that rebound in December and January. Stats NZ said seasonally adjusted net migration in the month of December was broadly in line with November and with the surge seen since February 2009. ASB economist Christina Leung said they expect net migration to support hosing demand in the near-term:

The continued strength in net migration is expected to boost domestic demand. In particular, the low rate of departures has put pressure on the NZ housing market. However, with signs that departures to Australia are starting to pick up we expect net migration flows to ease off over 2010. Nonetheless, we expect net migration to support housing demand in the near-term.

PLT arrivals exceeded departures by 1,400 in December 2009, compared with 100 in December 2008. There were 1,400 (18 percent) fewer PLT departures, including 1,300 fewer departures to Australia. Since February 2009, PLT departures have fallen by at least 1,000 each month compared with the same month of the previous year. PLT arrivals were down 100 from December 2008, although there were 200 more PLT arrivals of New Zealand citizens. On a seasonally adjusted basis, PLT arrivals exceeded PLT departures by 1,700 in December 2009, unchanged from November 2009, and similar to the average of 1,900 experienced since February 2009. In December 2009, there were net inflows of migrants from the United Kingdom (1,300), India, Samoa, and China (each 200). There was a net outflow of 1,100 PLT migrants to Australia, the lowest for a December month since 2003, and a decrease from the net outflows of 2,600 in December 2008 and 2,500 in December 2007. There was also a net outflow of 300 migrants to Korea in December 2009. Net migration was 21,300 in the December 2009 year, compared with 3,800 in 2008. The increase in net migration was due to fewer departures. The 65,200 PLT departures in 2009 were down 18,500 (22 percent) from 2008. Over the same period, there were 86,400 PLT arrivals, down 1,100 (1 percent). The latest annual net migration total is the highest since the June 2004 The net PLT migration gain of 21,300 in 2009 was higher than the annual average of 11,900 for the December years 1990"“2009. Net PLT migration varied substantially within this 20-year period. The net gain peaked at 30,200 in the April 1996 year and again at 42,500 in the May 2003 year. Net outflows were experienced during most of 1998"“2001, with the largest being a net loss of 13,200 people in the February 2001 year.