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Auckland community Covid-19 cluster rises to seven, with a high school, church and casino among the locations of interest. Modelling suggests we may get between 50 and 120 cases

Auckland community Covid-19 cluster rises to seven, with a high school, church and casino among the locations of interest. Modelling suggests we may get between 50 and 120 cases

Wednesday evening update:

Chris Hipkins, Minister for the Covid-19 Response, has told RNZ's Checkpoint programme several new Covid-19 cases had emerged since the 1pm press conference. 

Hipkins says there have been "several more cases." Following Hipkins' comments a spokesman for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says there are now 10 cases in total.

Hipkins also says there are potentially several thousand people who came back to New Zealand from Australia who went through managed isolation, and possibly those who came from other states aside from New South Wales, to investigate.

Later on Wednesday evening the Ministry of Health issued a statement. The new case of a woman in her 60s who has a connection to the border, is an Air New Zealand aircrew member who doesn't appear to be connected to the rest of the cluster. 

Meanwhile, there are now nearly 70 locations of interest in Auckland and Coromandel, including shopping malls, bars and cinemas across Auckland.

The statement is below.

There are three new cases of COVID-19 in the community to confirm this afternoon.

These are additional to the seven cases reported previously. This brings the total community cases at this stage to 10. Nine of these cases have been linked to other community cases and the remaining case has been linked to the border.

Details of the three new cases, who are all in Auckland, are as follows:

  • A man in his 20s. This man is the partner of a known case who was reported as a positive case this morning.
  • A woman in her 60s. Interviews are underway to determine any link to existing cases. This woman has a connection to the border.
  • A woman in her 20s. She has a connection with another case reported today.

In addition, two cases announced at 1pm today have now been linked to existing cases.

  • A teenage woman who was a close contact of a case reported today.
  • A man in his 20s who visited the household where three of the cases reported today reside.

Movements of all cases reported continue to be investigated. Investigations also continue at Auckland City Hospital, where one of the cases worked for four shifts during their infectious period.

Additional locations of interest identified have been added to Ministry’s website this afternoon. These include Sky City Casino, Avondale College, several Auckland supermarkets, bars and cafes.

This list will be updated progressively as further locations of interest are identified.

The key message from the last lockdown remains relevant: ‘stay at home, save lives, be kind. If you have symptoms or have been at a location of interest, get a test. This will help stop any undetected spread in the community.

Only leave your home if you need to, and please wear a mask when you do.

EARLIER:

Health authorities don't yet know the source of Auckland's new community Covid-19 cases that first emerged on Tuesday, but they originated in Australia, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says.

Ardern says results of genomic sequencing are expected Wednesday night. Given Tuesday's initial case is genomically linked to the New South Wales outbreak, there are lots of trails to follow, Ardern says.

"We know it has come from Australia. The question is how and when," Ardern says.

Director General of Health Ashley Bloomfield says there are now two more community cases, in addition to the five already reported. All seven cases are linked. The two latest are a 21-year-old male and a 19-year-old female, both returned a positive test on Wednesday.

Cases include a 20-year-old male who is a work colleague of the first case that emerged on Tuesday, a 58-year-old Devonport man, and three of his flatmates. These include a 25-year-old teacher at Avondale College, and a nurse from Auckland Hospital who is fully vaccinated. Another is a 29-year-old male. They have the highly infectious Delta variant of Covid-19. Sixteen close contacts have been identified, 14 have been reached so far. They are isolating and being tested.

A church, the Church of Christ in Freeman's Bay, and SkyCity Casino are among the locations of interest. Most of the cases are in their 20s and Bloomfield expects more locations of interest and more cases.

He says we may see somewhere between 50 and 120 cases, according to modelling.

Bloomfield says Rosedale waste water testing, from Auckland's North Shore, is expected later Wednesday. Testing is also happening in Coromandel and Thames, with first results expected on Friday.

Mask wearing is being made compulsory from midnight Wednesday for people visiting and working at essential services such as supermarkets, pharmacies and service stations, along with bus terminals and in taxis. Mask wearing is already compulsory on public transport. Covid-19 vaccinations will resume across New Zealand from Thursday with some sites resuming Wednesday afternoon, Ardern says.

Asked about a level four lockdown being in place in the South Island when the outbreak is in Auckland, Ardern says until the source of the outbreak is traced there's concern there could be cases in the South Island. Additionally there may be people from places of interest in Auckland who have subsequently travelled to the South Island.

A slightly abridged version of the Ministry of Health statement is below. The full version is here.

Two additional community cases; 3 cases in Managed Isolation; more than 55,000 vaccine doses administered

There are two new cases of COVID-19 in the community to confirm.

This is additional to the five cases reported previously. This brings the total of community cases at this stage to seven, all which are being included in the national tally today. All cases are being transferred safely to an Auckland isolation facility, under strict infection prevention and control procedures, including the use of full PPE.

In addition, there are three new cases in returnees in managed isolation.

The two new community cases, a 21-year-old male and a 19-year-old female, both returned a positive test today (18 August). Both are located in Auckland.

These two cases are linked to the earlier reported community cases. Public health officials are conducting interviews to establish more details of how these new cases were infected and to determine further details of their movements.

Case A is now in a quarantine facility in Auckland. A subsequent test of case A has again returned a positive test result.

The wife of Case A, reported yesterday, and who is fully vaccinated, has again returned a negative test result.

Of the community cases reported to date, four were tested after becoming ill and seeking healthcare and three after being identified as contacts.

Movements of the additional cases reported earlier today continue to be investigated. Investigations also continue at Auckland City Hospital, where one of the cases worked for four shifts during their infectious period.

The hospital last night activated plans to prevent the spread of the virus within the hospital. The DHB has stopped unnecessary movements between wards and is testing all staff and patients on the ward the staff member worked on. The DHB is also standing down, testing and isolating staff on the same ward.

The Ministry understands news this morning that one of the cases worked at Auckland City Hospital may create concern.

However, anyone who needs urgent medical care will be safe as safe in our hospitals now as they would be at any other time, including Auckland City Hospital.

While elective surgery and non-essential outpatient hospital appointments are currently postponed at hospitals around the country, anyone who needs urgent medical attention – such as a medical emergency or going into labour – should follow the normal procedures.

At Alert level 4 many appointments or interactions with heathcare services may be virtual.

Dial 111 or attend a hospital emergency departments. Hospital staff are working and able to provide the care you need. They have measures in place to safely manage care at Alert Level 4.

And as you would normally do, if you have a health issue that isn’t an emergency, please call your GP or give Healthline a call on 0800 611 116.

Pharmacies also remain open in Alert Level 4.

Additional testing resources are being set-up across the country and people that are symptomatic, wherever they are in New Zealand, especially in the Auckland region and the Coromandel, or have been at a location of interest are urged to get tested.

The key message from the last lockdown remains relevant: ‘stay at home, save lives, be tested.  This will stop any undetected spread in the community.

Only leave your home if you need to, and please wear a mask when you do.  

Contact tracing

Public health staff in Auckland are working hard on the critical work necessary to investigate  community cases.

They are interviewing cases, identifying their contacts, tracing those contacts, and ensuring they’re in isolation and tested.  Isolation, when in alert level 4, means isolating themselves from other household members.

That work continues apace.

As at 11am Auckland Regional Public Health have 16 contacts identified.  Of these 16, 14 have been contacted.  Two are in the process of being traced and contacted.  One of the 14 contacts has tested positive and they are included in the case update provided earlier.  

Two contacts have returned negative test results, and the other 13 are isolating and being tested.  Of the 16 contacts, we know that four are fully vaccinated; three have had one dose; and the remainder are unvaccinated - reflecting the majority of these individuals would not yet have been offered vaccination due to not yet meeting the eligibility for vaccination.

These numbers are expected to grow.

Details of the locations of interest identified to date are available on Ministry’s website, which will be update progressively as further locations of interest are identified.

The Ministry’s website will also include advice on what to do if you were at any of these locations at the time when you could potentially have been exposed. Text message alerts are currently being sent to people who scanned in using the COVID-19 Tracer App at locations during the relevant times.

Please call Healthline on 0800 358 5453 if you were potentially exposed and for advice on testing.

Whole Genome Sequencing

Initial whole genome sequencing run on a sample from Case A overnight has shown he has the Delta variant and there is a link to the New South Wales outbreak.

Further investigations have continued this morning and the Ministry is working closely with ESR to determine the source of these infections.

ESR is also examining cases who have recently arrived from New South Wales to determine if there is any possible link.

Wastewater

The results of wastewater samples taken at Rosedale on Auckland’s North Shore are expected today. Daily samples are now being taken from that site.

ESR has also increased the wastewater samples they are taking at other sites around Auckland.

Composite sampling of Whitianga and Coromandel Town is being set up today with further samples being taken in Coromandel at Pauanui, Tairua and Whangamata. Sampling at Thames will be underway tomorrow.

The first results from the samples can be expected on Friday. ESR is planning to take three samples over the next three consecutive days.

Wastewater testing is continuing at ESR’s other 26 sites across the country, including at its new sites announced on Monday which include Whangarei, Gisborne, Tauranga, Taupo, New Plymouth, Napier, Palmerston North, Nelson, Dunedin and Invercargill.

Testing

Please get tested if you visited a location of interest or have cold and flu symptoms.

All community testing centres in Auckland are continuing to operate extended hours today and will remain open until 8pm.

Four additional pop-up community testing centres have opened this morning in Devonport, St Lukes, Wairau Valley and Albany and will remain open into the evening.

Testing is under way in Thames and Coromandel Township, including two pop-up testing sites, and additional testing centres are being rapidly stood up across the District.

Pop-up testing sites are open in Coromandel Township and Thames, and an additional testing centre has been stood up at Claudelands Event Centre in Hamilton.

Please call Healthline on 0800 358 5453. And go to healthpoint.co.nz to find your local testing station, they will be updated during the day

We know that on the first day of testing it can take time for systems to be stood up and queues can be long. Please prepare to be in a queue for some time –wear a mask, take food and water with you, take a book to read or something to watch and please be patient and kind. Everyone is doing their best at testing stations, but the first day always tends to be busy.

DHBs are working on additional testing capacity throughout the country.

For up-to-date information on testing locations in Auckland, including visting hour, visit Auckland Regional Public Health Service and for information about the Coromandel Testing stations please visit Waikato DHB. For all testing locations nationwide, visit the Healthpoint website.

The total number of COVID-19 tests processed by laboratories to date is 2,571,452.

Yesterday, 7,057 tests were processed across New Zealand.

The seven-day rolling average is 5,162.

Vaccination update

Yesterday (17 August) a daily record of 55,688 doses were administered. This includes 35,499 first doses, and 20,189 second doses.

More than 2.61m doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been administered to date (to 11.59pm on 17 August).

Of these, 1.65m are first doses and 954,000 are second doses.

More than 143,000 Mâori have received their first vaccination. Of these, more than 87,000 have also had their second vaccinations.

More than 96,000 doses have been administered to Pacific peoples. Of these, around 60,000 have also received their second doses.

All DHBs had plans in place to continue the vaccination roll-out during alert level 4, and those are now being activated. Some vaccination in limited sites will restart this afternoon.

From 8am tomorrow the vaccination programme will resume throughout New Zealand.

This will look different - vaccination sites will be operating under alert level 4 conditions and that means in some cases, they won’t have as many people coming through. That is to enable distancing.  

If you are one of the bookings that we need to move to ensure we have a bit more space, you will receive notification. Otherwise, the message is simple. If you were booked for tomorrow and you haven’t heard anything, please go.

The most part we are intending to continue our roll out as planned. That means continuing to open up age bands.  From today, those who are aged 40 plus can visit bookmyvaccine.nz to make their bookings.

NZ COVID Tracer

NZ COVID Tracer now has 2,926,215 registered users.

Poster scans have reached 325,352,493 and users have created 13,012,921 manual diary entries.

There have been 555,441 scans in the 24 hours to midday yesterday.

Wednesday's 1pm Covid-19 update with Director General of Health Ashley Bloomfield and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern can be viewed below. And you can see our earlier story here.

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

116 Comments

Let's hope hospitals, police, testing centres and vaccination programs will be able to cope if we ever run a few hundred cases a day.

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Nah. Let's underfund and underpay them and totally price them out of affording to live here instead. It's the kiwi way.

Everybody is going to be exposed to the virus within the next year or so.

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No. It's the neoliberal way. Covid is doing a great job of ruthlessly exposing the folly of New Zealand's willingness to rely upon unregulated market forces to steer the economy over the previous 4 decades. As an economic philosophy, it's on life support.

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"Unregulated market forces" took a big step back when the central banks decided they had to set the price of money.

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That doesn't roll back the last 40 years of neoliberal frameworks and reform forced on this country.

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Uhh central banks have been around a lot longer then 40 years.

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Nz is highly regulated. Probably one of the most regulated.

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Why is it always highly rated as one of the easiest places to do business then?

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Nope, because people like you believe in continuing to underfund social services and promote nonsensical house prices which are and will drive key workers away.

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You got the wrong tree. We don't fund public services directly, the government does.

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?
But tax funds the government to fund the public services, and you sound like the sort of person that wants to keep taxes low - or do I have that wrong?
What I do know it that you constantly spruik house prices without any apparent awareness of the social consequences.

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Then it's the government failing to work within their budget; not tax payers problem.

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Ohhhhhh right....

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And you don't seem to think astronomical house prices are a problem in attracting and retaining key healthcare workers. Obviously, because you are always hyping prices higher...

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The NZ Dollar is a sovereign currency that is issued by the government through its spending and taxpayers are not currency issuers they are only currency users. The government spends first and taxes back later. Taxation maintains the value of the currency,controlling the quantity on issue by deleting it through taxation.
"Monetary sovereignty is the power of the state to exercise exclusive legal control over its currency, broadly defined, by exercise of the following powers:
Legal tender – the exclusive authority to designate the legal tender forms of payment.
Issuance and retirement – the exclusive authority to control the issuance and retirement of the legal tender".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_sovereignty

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MMT is complete BS.
Even if it wasn't it would only work for the US dollar because it is the reserve.
If we want to buy oil we have to convert to USD. If we print loads of NZD then it will devalue against the USD. And the price of everything will go up.
It's still bollicks for the USD but it makes even less sense for a non reserve currency.

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MMT is an accurate description of how sovereign currencies operate. If you think that taxpayers and bond holders create our currency then I suggest that you live in some far off land of make believe. I suppose that you don't believe that banks create money as credit either. NZ runs current account deficits, how do you suppose that they are financed without more currency and where does the money come from for us to add to our savings? They also require more currency. I suggest that you look up 'sectoral balances' online.

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When a private bank draws down a mortgage and deposits money into a current account, who is issuing those NZ dollars? Hint, they are created on draw-down.

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Sorry to let you down, but I don't think we can. Hospitals are already running their 150% capacity because of understaffing. That's why even there is one case, we will have to go through level 4 lockdown. If housing is getting worse and hospitals are still having understaff issue, more medical staffs will leave NZ, then we will have some serious crisis ahead.

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Sorry, where do you get this "hopsitals already running at 150% capacity" thing from? Wouldn't that imply that there would be patients on the streets?

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They're not patients if you don't admit them.

They are just called visitors and they wait in ED, out the doors, in the streets, and spend hours trying to book into GPs who have 7 day waits for appointments.

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I visited a friend in hospital last week and was shocked at how many beds were jammed in one large room. There was barely room to place a small chair between beds. It looked 3rd world. The nurses were lovely though...how they put up with it I don't know. I know for sure now I will avoid going into hospital like the plague.

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It's not that bad. I went to Starship hospital a few years ago with my family and all we got was this crappy Swine Flu.

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Many using hospitals are not overnight stays or need beds. They are seeing specialists.

The running at 150% capacity reflects understaffing and staff consequently working longer than they should.

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So the 150% figure where does it come from?

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Took me 6 months to get a spot at my local GP. They weren't accepting new patients, not even casual visits. They eventually hired a new doctor who came over from the UK. I was position 40 something of over 200 on the waiting list, this is in Masterton.

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Some questions:
1. What is the cost benefit analysis for this lockdown ?
2. Is "elimination" still a viable strategy with a leaky vaccine, animal reservoirs and C19 becoming endemic everywhere else?
3. Why do we need to lockdown now when the most at risk have been vaccinated (mainly people over 65 ) ?
4. Why don't we leave primary doctors free to treat patient early with the various protocols now in place in many countries ?

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Delta is making young people sicker faster than any other variant
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/03/health/covid-young-adults-sicker.html
Hopefully there is more data now, but remember the Spanish Flu's second wave killed largely the young and healthy - their immune system response killed them, not the disease.

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yes, more young people get the disease and some end up in hospital and ICU but they do not die more from it as the CFR is lower for the delta variant. so there is no comparison possible with the Spanish flu. Again early treatment is the key for improve outcome in all age groups (e.g. I-MASK+).

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My 15 year old nephew, very fit and healthy sportsman, has just been discharged from hospital overseas.
Delta is a nasty bastard and deserves to be taken very seriously.

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I didn't say young people would die more. The reference to Spanish Flu deaths was because deaths are an excellent proxy for serious cases. In the linked article the physician said "sicker, longer, faster" to describe young people getting Delta. The Spanish Flu comparison holds because the immune response could be the reason young people are getting sicker faster.

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"It is precisely the suppression of these broadly protective innate Abs that makes previously asymptomatically infected individuals more susceptible to disease. It is also precisely this phenomenon that explains why a first wave of a natural pandemic is followed by a second wave in younger age groups.

The even bigger amplitude of that second wave merely reflects the overwhelming contribution of a population’s innate immunity to its overall immune protective capacity. So, this is why we’re now seeing more and more disease in younger age groups, and even children, although they were perfectly protected during previous waves. Extending mass vaccination campaigns to these younger age groups is the most irresponsible public health proposal (decision?) ever as

https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/post/how-remaining-in-the-dark-and-t…

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Spanish flu comparison does not hold at all.
You need another 215 million odd dead to get to the mid range figure of the Spanish flu, in todays numbers.
I mean covid figures have been massaged like crazy, but I think they would struggle to get it to 200 million.
And like the poster already said the IFR is lower anyway.
You could talk about cytokine storms, sure, but that's not unique to the Spanish flu.

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oh so lets vaccinate them last then..oh we are. Lets be honest this vaccine roll out is a disgrace. Why are there not nurses etc going around all schools on a 8 week rotation to get people jabbed, why are large workplaces not allowed to vaccinate (i know we asked and they said no)...it is a cluster..typical of this government. Hope in 2 years they pay the price.

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FCM - I often wonder how folk with so much bias, manage to walk?

You live on the side of a hill?

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The current generation of vaccines won't solve this. See Israel, Iceland and the UK.

They're more of a gene therapy than a vaccine. They'll keep some people out of hospital, but they're not giving us herd immunity.

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Didn't the young people in here were hoping boomers get wiped by the virus previously? Now this Delta is going for them.

Karma at its best.

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You sound like such a lovely person.

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HouseMouse,

I'm glad I don't have him as a neighbour.

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His comments amuse me.
Be quick!

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Stop comparing this to the Spanish Flu.
Mid range estimate for the Spanish flu deaths is 50 000 000. Population at the time was 1.8 billion. That is 1 in every 36 people on the planet dying.
To get that to todays numbers we would need 219 million covid deaths. And those were all ages it killed pretty much indiscriminately.
There isn't a debate at that level. We all agree it's a devastating pandemic. And society, very understandably goes into meltdown.
This is unequivocally not that.
What's more the delta variant may not be much more deadly. It may be more infectious though measuring infectivity is tricky because of asymptomatics and even the sick do not always get tested / counted. So perhaps it is perhaps it isn't. It wouldn't be the first time something has been blown out of proportion with this mess.
However it's easier to calculate the mortality rate as it's a bit harder to miss dead people (although what counts as a covid death has also been seriously contorted).
This public health england briefing is from a couple of months ago but the sample size is decent, and given the english definition for a covid death is so loose (any death within 28 days of a covid positive test is a covid death) it will likely lean towards over estimation if anything.
It puts mortality rate at 0.1% which is bang on seasonal flu (maybe, we don't really measure seasonal flu very well either)
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uplo…
It does seem more infectious then flu of course so it will kill more. However that mortality rate is at least 50% less than earlier strains which were around the 0.15% range
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33768536/
Which would seem to imply it's of similar danger. Less deadly but more spready.
This is not surprising as virus tend towards less virulence not more. Dead people don't make good viral vectors. The sweet spot is a bit sick but not so much as to be bed ridden. A bit coughy and sneezy but still more or less able to go about your business spreading the virus.
The Spanish Flu was an aberration. Of course that does not mean it cannot happen again, but the delta strain does not look like it will be the second wave of the spanish flu.
Calm down people.

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Curious about how you got all this impressive knowledge of viruses and pandemics.

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Background in biology. Stayed interested in science.
To be fair I have spent way to much time on this topic. I kind of despise how much time it's sucked out of my life. Nevermind the time we have wasted on this as a society. It's like picking a scab or watching a car crash in slow motion. I find it hard to look away.
I've definitely lost a lot of faith in New Zealand, humanity generally and scientists (although not science).
But I have kids so I kind of feel like I have to make my opinions heard. I really don't know what the hell we are giving them. But I want it on the record that I thought it was bs.
I have all the frailties of any average human. What really gets to me is the arrogance shown by people like Wiles and Baker. So certain of something that far better credentialed scientists then them really struggle with.
And the utter weakness of politicians. They just take the path of least resistance.
I may well be wrong, lockdowns might work and so might masks and social distancing and all this other made up pseudo science. But the people who tell us these things "absolutely work" are lying and doing a grave disservice to science and humanity. The best anyone can say is they don't know for sure but if they had to say......
Instead they give us their completely dishonest "certainty".
And they supress debate which is a cornerstone of science and a free and open society. Siouxsie Wiles in particular has been actively anti-science in her personal attacks on people who have far more expertise than her. She can disagree that's fine. But to personally attack scientists who by any measure are far, far more qualified than her is embarrassing.
But hey she has bright red hair and so is easy to make into a cartoon. It appears that's enough to be the go to expert nowadays.

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Well said. So perhaps there is a bigger agenda to the narrative being spun. Cui bono? Klaus Schwab is quite the social engineer - "You'll own nothing and be happy". And our own PM tells us not to talk to our neighbors and we will be your only source of truth. Little tells perhaps? Ivermectin anyone?

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Very difficult to say if you're being humorous here. If not....please provide a link to the statement about the PM.

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Denature - You may want to check your maths - 50,000 out of 1.8 billion is one in 36000.

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Thanks mate you are absolutely right, but I missed three zeroes. It's meant to be 50 000 000 not 50 000. I've edited now.

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Personally I would prefer to maintain elimination strategy until I have had a chance to get a vaccine, so far I'm too young. Pretty sure most people feel the same...

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.... we're gonna have to live with this virus ... so , the sooner the smart majority are able to be fully vaccinated the better ... got my first jab yesterday ... sadly , they no longer stick it in the butt ... shoulder injections only ... not much fun .... still got a sore spot there ... good news is , if the Gummster dies from Canolavirus , the arm will live on ... anyhoo , the medical research from England says to get the second jab 12 weeks after the first , not 3 weeks as suggested in NZ ....

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Good ter see ya back, GBH. Hope the larder is well stocked with sucrose-heavy sweetmeats, sufficient to cover the enforced idleness sprung upon us all.

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.. hey Waymad ... all locked & loaded , thanks ... not gonna waste the next few days , plenty of reading / feeding / boozing & gardening lined up ...

All cool & groovy with you ?

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Who is the favoured recipient of such unbridled earthy energy then?

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NZ is now doing a six week gap not three weeks any more.

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6 is better than 3 ...but ... 12's betterer than 6 ... twice as betterer ... 4 times betterest than 3 ....ummm .... yessss ....

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Butt wud have bent and blocked the needle, daresay. You are dead right. The 12 week gap would have allowed a far greater number to have at least had one dose by now. Think they are modifying now accordingly.

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... apparently the efficacy of the second shot is 3 & a half times better if you have it at 12 weeks after the first , compared to the 3 week gap ...

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it would be interested to know how many live-year we would have gained if we had invested those billons on more hospitals , better pay , conditions and training for nurses and doctors, campaigns on public education on metabolic health ? Maybe it is time to treat c19 as just another disease , nothing more nothing less.

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1. It depends if it works. There is ample evidence that elimination has resulted in a much healthier economy than those with suppression (as an anecdote my friend in the UK hasn't visited a hairdresser in a year and a half, but there is heaps of hard data). And if elimination is the strategy then hard and early is the way to give the best chance to (a) eliminate, and (b) keep the lockdown as short as possible.
2. Yes. R0 under level 4 last year was estimated as under 0.5 so with Delta being twice as contagious should still have R0

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There is no cost/benifit. Only Covid related physical heath costs are considered. Mental health or other non covid19 related health costs get no consideration (i.e postponing cancer scans) as do the broader economic costs. Impacts on children are also completely ignored.

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This might help answer some of your questions;
Norway's National health chief just declared that the covid pandemic is over (for Norway). They determined that covid is less dangerous than the flu with an IFR of 0.05% compared to seasonal flu 0.1%. They determined that covid is, and will remain endemic. As many predicted, New Zealand’s elimination strategy is a fool's errand.
https://www.europereloaded.com/covid-is-over-in-norway-declares-nationa…
In other news a science journal article from a few days ago has conclusively shown that naturally acquired immunity produces "Ultrapotent Antibodies" that are effective against the nasty covid variants. Does it make sense then to vaccinate healthy people who have almost zero risk from covid when doing so might give them inferior quality immunity compared to natural immunity.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/373/6556/eabh1766

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Love some info about vaccinations. I was booked for Friday. If people can't have it because it's called off does that put those who missed it during the lockdown go to the back of the queue, or have their first dose 6 weeks after (that's when my second dose is booked for)?

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You can just walk-in to a vaccination centre and they will give you a shot if they have any spare.

I did it yesterday.

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I've seen since that vaccinations will recommence tomorrow, which is good.

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... yes ... the Gummy mummy has been contacted to front up Thursday for first Pfizer jab ...

The worst part of it is waiting 20 minutes afterwards , in a tiny ill ventilated room , shoulder to shoulder with a bunch of sneezing wheezing ancient geezers ...

.... I now realise that a geriatric isn't a German cricketer who's just taken 3 wickets with 3 consecutive balls ...

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Lol, the waiting areas aren't shoulder to shoulder, and the one I was in on monday had too much ventilation, bloody chill breeze blowing thru.

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... lucky for you , good ... but the waiting room I was in was tiny , and we really were touching shoulders ... 12 squeezed into 2 rows of 6 ... roughly 3 by 4 sq m ... the size of a sleepout ... not good ... very very ungood ...

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You can just go sit in your car for 20 minutes. To the best of my knowledge they can't force you to wait in their room. To be fair, I didn't test this theory but I might for my 2nd jab.

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... no we couldn't ... I wish it were so ... but no , we were scrunched in together in an alcove ... it was smaller than Lady Gaga's bra closet ...

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Thank you sir.
Your comments have made me laugh a little bit more with each one. The lady gag one has made me spit water all over the table.

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My wife tried that the other day here in Hawkes Bay at our local health centre and was turned down - "We're not part of the DHB..." After 10 minutes of robust discussion she gave up even though she knew for a fact they had plenty spare. Very poor communication in some areas.

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interesting that they have worked out it came from NSW, so how long has it been here? and we still have flights daily from there how often are ALL the people involved in those flights tested?

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Either aircrew relaxing protocols due to being vaccinated or the big rush to get back before bubble closed which is my pick.
Will be interesting how the public take this as the bubble travelers were told to travel at own risk but then our be kind government caved in and let the bubble rules change to suit what makes them look good rather than what the rules were when bubble opened.
Rule number 1 be prepared to be stuck in Australia if bubble pops which Jacinda and Co did not stick with now we pay the price instead of travelers stuck in Australia.

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the outbreak in australia started from a fedex express cargo pilot and a car ride.
all the focus is on passengers who may have returned from NSW , i hope we are looking in the right place to see where it came across the border and not missing something

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What are you talking about? Direct flights from NSW have been stopped for weeks - ever since their lockdown started. Only flights were repatriation flights of kiwis who had to go into two weeks MIQ (and yes, they were all tested three times), and those are over now.

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as i said i hope we are not overlooking the obvious considering how delta arrived in australia
there are two cargo planes that fly to and from sydney nightly, DHL and airwork,
pity our media dont ask the right questions or even look it up online AWK1 and TMN1
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AWK1
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/TMN1/history/20210818/0745Z/NZAA/YS…

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Wondering how many positive cases are asymptomatic. No symptoms, highly infectious, game changer, horse bolted. Because invisible spread will not cause spreaders to get swab. Yet being exponentially multiplied. Unless we stay in lockdown for months.

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The idea of two weeks in isolation is that, even if the individual was asymptomatic, they will have fully recovered after 14 days. Of course you may get further transmission in larger households.

I suspect this initial lockdown announced in Auckland is just a stop-gap while they work out the geographical spread and which cities need a longer quarantine period imposed upon them.

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This lockdown is likely to be at least 2-3 weeks

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And it the virus is still about will we stay in lockdown forever?

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Probably, the Sydney situation. That's the outcome I'm anticipating as most probable.

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Yes we will. Because the vaccine stroll out was way to slow. We are now in the same position as NSW.

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Forever? Impossible. So the exit strategy is what?
I expect at some point we will find we have spent billions on a timing difference.

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Best they get started on commissioning a report on an exit strategy. Then they will need a working group and an implementation unit.

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Except that Sydney's lockdown wasn't really a lockdown and even now they are more like Level 3 than Level 4. Bunnings still open FFS. Good chance our Level 4 works but depends on people sticking to the rules.

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Exactly squishy. But we will only know what is tested. And travelled people still mingle and go to the supermarket. So, bottom line is can we measure and contain delta with the same tools as before? Germans outflanked the static French defences in WW2 because of complacency and assumption.
Guess time will tell.

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You would hope that any community spread would be detected by routine wastewater testing.

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How long will it take until general public wake up to the ineptitude of this government and demand they prioritise vaccination of all!

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Can't vaccinate against the unwilling. It has been so easy to get vaccinated in the tron. Walk into the Base and get it with no appointment.

If people do not want to be vaccinated by a non FDA approved vaccine that was rushed through with shortcuts, that is entirely their right.

If you don't have the right to make your own health decisions, then what is freedom?

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They're planning to fully approve it next month

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How robust is that? "planning" to approve'?

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At least this government didn't rush to open the borders - something the right push for daily.

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Maybe you've been out of the loop, but vaccinations open up for everyone aged 16+ on 1st of September. That is 2 weeks away from today.

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... the latest UMR political poll does suggest a significant swing against the government is underway ...

We will have to live with Covid-19 , elimination is not a permanent solution ... so , we've improved from 126'th in the world to 118'th on vaccinations ... not exactly " front of the queue " ... but , this moribund government does appear to be slowly awaking from their Covid slumbers ...

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Time to get a bit smarter , and use the natural barrier between the north and south island to prevent National lockdowns. Either require full tracing and / or vaccinations for people travelling between islands.
All public spaces need to be redesigned to prevent large crowds been screened together.
Lucky none of the affected Saturday nights test game. If they did , the smaller crowd may be a blessing . but all of a sudden , you have a super spreader event.

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the trouble is they give time for people to go home for lockdown and people in auckland take that time to leave auckland and travel all over NZ.

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They need to hurry up and approve the vaccine for children. Having spent the past 2 weeks in PICU with my son intubated with RSV pneumonia I can tell you that our health system is already under huge strain.

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From RSV!!!!! Not Covid FFS.

Our health system was overloaded by RSV because we had lockdowns last year. So that kids weren't exposed to it.

Calling for Covid vaccinations to help with RSV makes no sense, they're different diseases.

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Please tell me you’re not that stupid?! Where did I imply they are the same disease. You think the RSV outbreak was bad? What do you think will happen if COVID gets widely out into the community with little to no immunity?

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It will do very little to children. Covid is considerably less harmful than flu for children. Around 300 deaths in the USA for under 18s. The vast majority of those have other serious issues.

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I wish they would prioritise a Jacinda vaccine.

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Why is that Rastus? Because of the threat to the neoliberal individualist incredibly selfish way of life is under threat for the privileged few?

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I become ill when i have to listen to her. I thought a vaccine might help.

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The vaccine for that is alcohol.

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... switching off the radio & uncorking the alcohol .... ooooh yeah ... that feels better .. . Lucinda ? ... who ...

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wow at all the indignation around the vaccination rates - I suggest you look at the data - it would have been folly to offer vaccinations ahead of projected supply.

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A lot of people on here aren't interested in facts, only reinforcement of their echo chambers, and taking potshots due to the indignity of Judith Collins not being pm.

Oh and well said too.

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I think you will find nothing but contempt for Judith on this forum. Granted this is an echo chamber of the economic centre right.

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Precisely…. Why did they not pull out all the stops to get supply 12 months ago! F’n dithering twats!

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According to what we are told. Genome sequencing indicates the case A from yesterday has the NSW version of Delta. There is only one case/arrival from Australia that has tested positive in MIQ that fits the time window. Positive test on day 1, 9th August. Positive tests are batched and genome sequenced weekly. Why? Who knows. But 9 days later and this one isn't sequenced yet. But is in the process of being done. Hopefully it does turn out to be the source case. Then it may be easier to track down other possible cases.

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Amazing the focus on cases in MIQ when airline crews can now come into the country freely without having to isolate. I wonder if there is an Air NZ flight attendant somewhere with a sore throat and runny nose who came back from AUS last week?

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there are two cargo planes that fly nightly,
there is one cargo plane that passes through from america on its way through australia to china, and it was that plane that brought covid to australia, and it is also those planes that are bringing in the vaccine so we need them to keep flying but at what cost
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-17/nsw-quarantine-worker-may-have-b…

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The Government has dropped the ball on vaccinations, ALL front line staff, border staff, airports, ports, hospital staff etc should ALL be vaccinated or NO JOB, human life is more important than human rights, whats the use of human rights when your DEAD, or after covid injured for life, lungs very weak etc.

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Apparently people who are vaccinated still get it and pass it on. Some reports are saying the viral load in the vaccinated is much higher. You may be in more danger from a vaccinated person than an unvaccinated if you yourself are not vaccinated. I guess this should all help with gaining herd immunity.
The death rate from COVID is now similar to the flu so I wouldn't get too worked up about it.

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Would love to see your data for that claim because what I've seen shows that only to be the case if fully vaccinated - which most of us aren't. Not to mention long COVID, which is very nasty and much more common that "long flu".

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This is what happens when the government sets different sets of rules for different sets of people. Not surprised this is linked to the NSW delta variant as many rich kiwis couldn't stand sitting idle in their own lavish properties, and had to fly to AU for a fun filled winter time.

Congrats Jacinda, well done. Very well done.

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