Labour has taken a slight knock, while the minor parties have received a little boost, in the latest 1 News-Colmar Brunton Poll.
According to 1008 eligible voters polled between September 17 and 21, support for Labour was down 5 percentage points from the last poll conducted in late July.
However with 48% support, Labour would still secure 62 seats - enough to govern on its own.
Support for National inched back 1 percentage point to 31%, meanwhile momentum continued to build behind ACT, with support up 2 percentage points to 7%.
The Greens would scrape back into Parliament with 6%. NZ First would be out at 2%.
No minor party would hold a balance of power.
With 14% undecided, the race is still on. 13% of survey respondents were undecided according to a 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll done at a similar time before the 2017 election.
Jacinda Ardern remains comfortably ahead in the preferred prime minister ranks.
National made its temporary tax cut policy announcement at the beginning of the polling period. The $4 billion hole in its budget was discovered towards the end of the polling period.
The poll was also conducted just after the better-than-expected, but still bad, June quarter GDP figures were published, as well as Treasury's Pre-Election Fiscal and Economic Update, which showed how lengthy the Covid recovery is expected to be.
Preferred party:
- Labour: 48% (-5% points)
- National: 31% (-1% point)
- ACT: 7% (+2% points)
- Greens: 6% (+1% point)
- NZ First: 2% (no change)
- New Conservative: 2% (no change)
- Maori Party: 1% (no change)
- TOP: 1% (+1% point)
- Advance NZ: 1% (+1% point)
- Don't know/refused: 14%
Seats:
- Labour: 62
- Greens: 8
- National: 41
- ACT: 9
Preferred prime minister:
- Jacinda Ardern: 54% (no change)
- Judith Collins: 18% (-2% points)
- Winston Peters: 2% (+1% point)
- David Seymour: 2% (+1% point)
146 Comments
Goldsmiths CV;
Goldsmith attended Auckland Grammar School and the University of Auckland.[2] Goldsmith then worked as a press secretary and speech writer for Phil Goff (Labour), Simon Upton (National) and John Banks (then a National MP).[3] In 2000 Goldsmith became a public relations adviser and worked for Tranz Rail and the University of Auckland.[3]
Goldsmith graduated with an MA in history.[2] He has written the biographies of John Banks, Don Brash, William Gallagher, Alan Gibbs and Te Hemara Tauhia as well as a history of taxes, Puketutu Island and a history of the Fletcher Building construction company.[3]
Aye but the axe rather than the lathe. Mr GB has some history to explain. The recent revelations of the conduct of EQC and Southern Response under his watch are unsavoury to say the least. And listening to a director of the Canterbury DHB it is clear that the dire situation that has emerged at the CDHB had its roots under his watch too. It is unusual to say the least for an MP to wilfully inflict such damage and hardship on the city of his own seat.
National shouldn’t feel threatened by ACT though, they are the most obvious coalition party after all so their strength is to Nationals benefit.
If anything ACT are taking the empty ground on the right that National are leaving behind as they seemingly move further and further to the left.
Fanciful, perhaps, but I think ACT having more weight in parliament could be more useful for NZ if Labour and Greens are in government (than National). ACT could potentially be a more cooperative and engaged group than solely opposition for opposition's sake.
They don't seem to have enough to say on moving the economy beyond houses and high-level immigration, and they have issues of philosophical consistency, but their tax ideas are legitimately interesting and worth having at the table.
Go along with that. Expect a compact and energetic team. National in 2017 claimed as the largest party in Parliament they would form a formidable opposition. Instead they were cumbersome and blundered around, with a penchant for own goals. ACT can form a strike force, shorter communication lines, concise and ready reactive.
Competent party strategists would see this as a chance to go for woke and try to take centre voters away from Ardern - at worst you'd bleed support to your coalition partner and the only place you could be taking them from is the party you have to beat. It's essentially risk-free, but I'm not sure Crusher has the cunning to stand up and promise benefit increases on the fly and then challenge Ardern to match it. The closer things get, the bolder each of them is going to have to be.
Auckland needs light rail, just not the huge monstrosity the airport-obsessed deal has become. The original, street-level design to relieve bus pressure and enable density on main corridors and in areas where there is no transport (Mangere/North West Auckland) was solid. The Superfund colossus is way overspecced and overpriced. The Greens are the voice of reason here, Twyford has screwed the pooch.
Don't forget the wealth tax. They have set the mark at $1m net worth. 1% of $1m is $10k a year. They call it the poverty tax i.e. let's make everyone poor.
Note this is tax on net worth so a lot of people in Auckland with unrealised gains on their family home will be caught. Greens could hold balance of power.
Extremely disturbing watching the debate witnessing how out of touch the Saint is. For example, re dairy farmers "that feels to me like a world view from the past..."
Er dunno about anyone else but cows get milked now the same way they did 10,000 years ago in Mesopotamia. In other words, food production is what NZ always has and still does best.
I agree. Politics apart, Ardern appeared thoughtful and articulate. Collins just seemed rude and spoke in an excitable, fragmented manner. National needs to sort out its relationship with Act. It’s the tail wagging the dog, and has been for a long time now. I suspect it’s the vehicle they use to promote policies that are close to their world view, but a bit on the nose for middle NZ.
Mr Shaw leader of the Greens said on TV that NZ can look forward to a Labour/Greens government. Rather presumptuous that! For a start a lot of NZrs would view that with some alarm given the extreme left socialist utterance from the Greens of late. It looks beyond doubt that Labour will be returned and one would hope they proceed in government single handedly. The first problem is recent developments indicate the Greens have much pent up frustration ready to charge out of left field. The second problem is that Labour may be inclined to advance radical policy under the guise of coalition necessity as did the Clark/Cullen government by the vehicle of Jim Anderton.
Really??? Wouldn't it be better not to vote for Labour as the Nats would never entertain the Greens. The Greens are an extremists party that NZers should be very worried about. Unless Labour make a statement that they will not entertain a coalition with the Greens, better to vote for Act or Nat.
OK first you have to decide yourself that National are not going to regain power, even with a return to form by the ACT party. Therefore strategically If you vote Labour that might mean helping an outcome where they do not need to have the Green Party involved to form a government. Believe me this is weird. I swore I would never vote Labour again after the Clark/Cullen tax grab. But may have to revisit that. For example I voted NZF last time for the first time purely in the hope of avoiding a Labour/Greens government or a radical Labour government on their own. Things are no longer simple are they. Don’t think MMP has delivered what was hoped for.
NZ First on 2%.
Pleasing to see. Clearly New Zealanders don’t like NZ First looking after their privileged mates such as in Racing and killing a CGT, nor acting as the fairy godmother prancing around the provinces sprinkling fairy dust on the basis of its their money - not the taxpayers - and how grateful and indebted to NZ First we should be, the arrogance and bullying tactics of both Winston and Jones to those who think differently, Winston being a Trump wannabe, and Jones’ continue use of flossy big words as an attempt to remind us of his privileged Harvard education.
And that’s just pointing out the good things about NZ First . . . :)
But even then ACT's policies aren't really that sensible. We should be opening the border, resuming tourism and business as usual ASAP so that we can minimise the economic damage. Do it NOW while the summer window of opportunity is upon us. Of course protect the elderly vulnerable, while strengthening hospitals ability to deal with severe cases. Stop with he hysterical fearmongering which is exemplified by daily case by case reporting, but be honest with the public about the risks and what we're trying to achieve which should be herd immunity. How many ICU beds could we have purchased for 1 million, 10 million, 100 million? If we'd spent 10 million on ICU beds then perhaps we could have avoided wasting 100 billion on futile endeavours.
fat pat,
"of course protect the elderly vulnerable". Just who would you put in that category and how would you 'protect' them? At 75, but still capable of a full day's tramp, how would I fare under your policy?
Rod jackson, Professor of Epidemiology wrote an article in yesterday's Herald. The final sentence read; "This means that Covid-19 is at least 10 times more deadly than the flu". Can you give me a figure for how many additional deaths you would find acceptable?
I do understand the point you are making and I too am concerned about the long-term implications of unemployment and business failures, but a rush to 'get back to business as usual' will not work.
Hi Linklater. Well there are differing opinions on that, and my understanding from reading other epidemiologists is that it's not 10x flu. But hey, anyone can hand pick an epidemiologist that suits them. You know if it comes to a credential showdown then consider Professor Sunetra Gupta form Oxford.
COVID just doesn't seem that lethal. Take Sweden's 5000 deaths for example, a lot of that was displaced mortality, ie people that would have died that year anyway. You have to look at "excess deaths". That's a nice number because you cant fake it or overestimate it.
I'm sure we can do business as usual in a better way than Sweden. It's just the retirement villages that need to be firewalled. We know more now. There's encouraging evidence for instance coming out of Spain that vitamin D supplements can dramatically reduce ICU progression in hospitalized patients. See here or here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ip9sMomtVro&ab_channel=CovidPlanB
There are a real tangible number of deaths that will occur from depression, suicide induced by poor economic conditions. Not to mention the reduction in quality of life that's being baked into the cake, particularly if we buck the European and USA trend by staying locked down during the summer months. There has to be some balance.
CGT is seemingly unpopular but that is because the vocal and articulate will be penalised because of their privileged wealthy position.
I fail to understand how a blue collar worker doing overtime is taxed at their highest marginal rate, whereas those who rely on CG (such as an entrepreneur like Gareth Morgan or a property investor) can usually get away without paying tax on that income. A person investing in term deposits pay tax on that CG - but not those investing in properties (and able to avoid the bright line test).
A lack of a CGT is morally wrong.
(From one who would be liable to a CGT)
Agree 100%.
Jacinda is obviously terrified that any hint of a CGT would get her voted out. I can only assume that Labour have done the polling to confirm that's the case. Just shows how uninformed the average person is.
Obviously it's inevitable that we'll have a more extensive CGT sooner or later.
Jacinda also doing what she does best... obfuscation and speaking R E A L L Y slowly like we're all complete morons and need our mummy to explain things to us. Not to mention actually explaining where all the money's coming from to pay for stuff. Oh sorry... her double dudy idea. Wtf is that??
I'd prefer to see stimulus by way of Government spend (QE) with taxation there to keep inflation in check. There's a big difference between giving people tax cuts and praying they spend it (not save it/pay down debt), and targeting the use of capital towards infrastructure which should (if targeted correctly) make its way through the local economy, assuming multi-national corporates don't have their cake.
Continually giving the private sector tax cuts does not result in the private sector building water treatment plants, much needed reservoirs in Auckland etc. Those dead set keen on Tax Cuts would likely be the first to moan if they can't wash their car due to water restrictions.
Yes I thought it was a strange assessment by those two commentators. That wasn’t a debate it was a series of prepared answers - you don’t answer the serious questions in 30 secs. No real need for Ardern to attack Collins- just let Judith open her mouth and say something
Jacinda struggled to challenge the rubbish coming out of Judith's mouth.
Example, Judith says no to a minimum wage increase because it will put employers out of business. But the vast majority of minimum wage workers in NZ are those working for multi-national and national corporations in the retail sector, grocery sector, fast food sector, catering/cleaning sector, aged care sector. The same corporates that took the wage subsidy and then reported healthy profits even coming out of lockdown. These (the bulk of minimum wage employers the nation over) aren't going to go out of business.
And that's just one example. Happy to provide more!
What else could Judith call her?
Usually in Leaders Debates, it is first name. However there has been a sustained campaign the past three years across all sorts of media from both reporters, general public, and rabid keyboard warriors that to use Jacinda's first name is Condesending/Sexist/Ageist/disrespectful/etc...
I am fairly certain that if JC rocked the old "Jacinda" moniker, it would have been seen as a negative.
PM is almost never used, unless in Jest. The psychology of why is pretty well known, so that was never going to happen.
So what are you really left with? Minister/Honourable/etc... If that is the case, why wasn't the PM using the same?
Yeah, I heard that too :-). I also found the discussion of her second house in trust interesting - not because she mentioned the trust (but that was a bit snooty/dumb) but because she and her husband own more than just one additional property. They've got rentals too;
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/113575823/nationals-judith-collins-sue…
And over at Stuff a hair on fire moment.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/122852273/leaders-election-deba…
A gymnastics approach to logic & critical thought, mega mind reading.
Taking a leaf from the child's chant "heads I win, tails you lose"
I doubt folk will pick up on this assignment of what to think.
Just watched the leaders debate. For me the personality stuff is a sideline.
I would like to have a clear policy statements or at least reasoned discussion of the following.
1. Should there be a population goal for NZ.? What is it?
What is the immigration policy which will achieve that goal and how will housing and infrastructure be developed to match it.
2. What is the NZ policy toward the growing trade and military posturing between China and USA? How will NZ focus its trade and defence policy to reflect that?
3. How will NZ move from low Covid to reintegrate with the rest of the world? What economic policies will lead to reintegration and on what timescale?
4. NZ’s main agricultural export earners are challenged by climate change and animal welfare - be it water, soil, animal health, population encroachment. What policies will help resolve these challenges?
Sadly haven’t found many answers tonight.
It was very difficult to watch, it's nauseating listening to Jacinda "30 seconds past the bell" Ardern and Collins is a nasty piece of work. Sort of epitomizes politics in the New Zealand at the moment.
Why can't there be civility between the opposition? When you compare to the Health Debate between Hipkins and Reti, complete polar opposite:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PI588NvVh1w
I know Judith. She is in fact a very funny person to spend time with. She is also very intelligent and capable as evidenced by her performance last night. This election will tighten up as many people will have noticed that Ardern needs a fawning audience in order to perform.
To say someone is a nasty piece of work is very harsh. Some people might think of Ardern like that when she shuts someone down. I don’t think she is nasty , just very limited. Other than deal to disasters which many others could do what has she done? House prices and poverty for example. Her deputy. Is he alive?
It seems a lot of folks' impression of Judith as a nasty piece of work have come from her own communications - whether on Twitter, vocally, or in her sketchy communications leaked and made visible through Dirty Politics. Everyone is funny and friendly to their mates.
Judith - My Husband is Samoan - Talofa .... I have run a small business - ummm so what... Ill spend my 50 dollar (its Tala Judith).
Neither of them want to talk about the bottom end of society in any detail, neither want to do anything about it. It appears to me the days of having strong leaders with clear foresight as to what they want to achieve for the country, and the balls to do it, are over.
The act of winning and the PR bullshit to achieve it is what we are left with. So disillusioned with these idiots.
National /Act Government more sensible than a Labour Greens Govt
Those green nutters should been concentrating on green stuff, not policy's that are out of there depth
Cindy looked very worried and as other people have said she speaks so slooooowly thinking we are all school kids. Cindy also waves her hands a lot when she get cornered
Ms Collins did very well and some of the people cant understand that factual content
So,looking at ACT policies,they are pro immigration,repeal the RMA & building act and put a wage freeze on minimum wage earners,but not anyone else.
So we will have a rampant influx of foreign investors,no restraints on building thru reformed RMA & building ACT...haven't we been there before,but this time it will be on steroids.More people,more houses required and so on and so on...
They should be renamed the the "Property Party".
I am sure there will be exceptions for areas of special interest...like Epsom,'leafy' suburbs should be protected from rampant development.
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/will-acts-tax-policy-let-you-seymour-of-your….
This weekend he unveiled a tax proposal that would see personal and company tax rates set at 17.5 percent — that’s a tax increase for people on lower incomes, and a tax cut for people on higher incomes. It’s a cut below the 20 percent flat tax Roger Douglas took to Prime Minister David Lange in 1987, culminating in one of the biggest inter-Cabinet fracas in modern history.
Economists aren’t so sure about the plan — many say it's unfair and hits those on low income hardest. In fact, using Treasury’s modelling tool a flat tax of 17.5 percent would result in a tax increase for everyone earning less than $56,000. However there is agreement that flatter rates encourage compliance and reduce tax avoidance.
it would also kill the local economy, every study shows those that get the least spend it all , whereas those further up save, put on a mortgage, or spend overseas.
very short sighted policy it always has been since roger douglas days thats why no party has even gone near it
No mention of how targeted transfers would fit in with this, or alternative measures of raising revenue (Douglas' vision was a CGT paired with a flat tax, but they stepped back from the edge). Currently households on lower wages typically get back more than they pay in under through transfers, so pretty important to understand where the transfers fit in before you can compare the current situation with what is ACT is proposing.
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