February saw a strong upturn in inward migration flows, although population growth from migration remains well below previous years on an annual basis.
According to Statistics NZ's latest migration estimates, 17,018 people arrived in New Zealand long-term in February. That's up 8.5% compared to February last year, and was the highest it has been for any month of the year since September 2023.
Heading in the opposite direction, an estimated 8225 people left NZ long-term in February, down 7.4% compared to February last year.
That gave an estimated net population gain of 8794 from migration in February, up 29.3% compared to February 2024.
However, we will likely have to wait several months to see if the latest upturn in migration marks the start of a trend, or is just a monthly blip in the figures.
On an annual basis the migration trend is still strongly negative, with the overall gain well down year-on-year.
In the 12 months to the end of February this year, there were 154,254 long-term arrivals, down 29.5% compared to the previous 12 months, and 121,332 long-term departures, up 15.4% compared to the previous 12 months.
That gave an estimated net migration gain of 32,922 for the 12 months to February, down a whopping 80,814 (-71.1%) compared to the net gain of 113,737 in the 12 months to February 2024.
The number of NZ citizens leaving the country long-term continues to be a major driver of migration patterns.
In February, an estimated 2008 NZ citizens returned after an extended stay overseas, while 4753 departed long-term, giving a net loss of 2745 NZ citizens for the month.
Over the 12 months to February there was a net loss of 44,055 NZ citizens, and net gain of 76,977 citizens of other countries.
The main source countries of foreign migrants arriving in the 12 months to February were India 24,817, China 19,038, the Philippines 13,059, Sri Lanka 6057, United Kingdom 5339, Australia 4543 and Fiji 4162.
6 Comments
Good news to start the week !
Should get rents moving upwards again for those who have apparently had difficulty attracting top tier tenants.
(Get your managers to write long term leases, this can be done for residential and commercial)
Cheers all ! 🥂
It's too soon to make a call on this. Most of the increase in migration relates to overseas students, so it may not last because their numbers peak at the beginning of the year. And even Auckland CBD apartment rents, which are dominated by students, haven't moved from where they were 12 months ago. Rents generally around the country have also been flat the last 12 months. So it will take another couple of months at least to see if there's a trend emerging.
And even Auckland CBD apartment rents, which are dominated by students, haven't moved from where they were 12 months ago.
You would have thought that student accommodation in Aotearoa and Aussie would be gifts that keeps on giving. Symbiotic relationship between selling education and the Ponzi.
Not a call I'm making but been thinking about, what if USD continues to weaken and the Aotearoa Peso strengthens against USD?
Arguably, this is hellish for the South Asian student communities as their respective currencies may not be appreciating.
Ask the grandparents to sell off their gold?
Barely noon, and already looking for an excuse.
I wonder how many Kiwis will come back when the job losses get momentum in OZ and they can't claim a benefit.
I wish that StatsNZ would include demographic data alongside the migration numbers; especially for the data related to New Zealand citizens. It would be so much more instructive if they included an analysis across age bands or last-held occupation, for example.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.