Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Liberty Financial trimmed all their TD rates today. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
A MIXED OCTOBER
While some analysts see "a shift in momentum", in fact after adjusting for seasonal factors and a shift in the mix of the types of houses selling, the October real estate market activity was in fact little changed with a whiff of downside. That is consistent with the huge rise in listings occurring. More here.
INFLATION WATCH
Statistics NZ's monthly Selected Price Indexes show that inflationary pressures are now continuing to look subdued following the big rises of the past few years. Food prices drop in October, while rents now show the smallest rate of increase in a year.
NO SIGN OF DECLINING LENDING STANDARDS
Debt to income ratios nudge higher but are still well contained. The latest quarterly RBNZ figures show that the levels of new high debt-to-income borrowing are still well below the official limits that came into force in July this year.
MODERNISED INSURANCE LAW PASSES THIRD READING
The Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister says the Contracts of Insurance Bill and the Contracts of Insurance (Repeals and Amendments) Bill has passed its third reading and will provide “significant new safeguards” for consumers. Andrew Bayly says the new Bill means it will be up to insurers to “ask the right questions” and people will simply need to answer honestly. Under the existing “outdated” law, people have had to disclose any information that could influence an insurer, leading to voided insurance claims when people have unknowingly or accidentally failed to disclose information. Bayly says the changes will ensure the viability of a “fair and well-functioning insurance market”.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATES
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. NZX edges down -0.2% as Stride Property, NZX, Oceania, and Gentrack rise; Kiwi Property, Serko, Fletcher Building, and Vulcan Steel decline
PLENTY OF DEMAND
There was another very well supported NZ Govt bond tender today in three maturities. 111 bids were received totalling $1.4 bln for the $500 mln on offer. Just 44 of those bids were successful. All YTMs rose from the prior equivalent events.
안녕히 가세요
Kookmin Bank, a branch of the giant Korean bank has decided to quit the New Zealand banking market, basically because it sees no sustainable path without being able to take deposits, and the RBNZ has moved against allowing branches of overseas banks to continue to do that. Their decision is to not incorporate a subsidiary here, which would be subject to full RBNZ regulation.
WILLIS APPOINTS AN INSIDER
Ian Rennie has been appointed Secretary to the Treasury. He is a veteran public servant, an economist who has worked in the public service for more than 30 years. In prior roles he has been the State Services Commissioner, and a deputy Treasury Secretary.
CHANGE "BUT ONLY IF FISCALLY NEUTRAL"
The Government says it plans to review the tax status of commercial charities (like Sanitarium) and the NZ Super Fund but wants policy changes to be fiscally neutral because "There's no money".
恭喜你
The Bank of China is here to stay, with its New Zealand subsidiary celebrating 10 years in New Zealand. It says it now has now has over 2,500 customers with $2.1 bln in residential mortgages. It also says it is the eighth-largest bank here and sixth in corporate lending with 20% of all infrastructure banking finance.
PART-TIME JOBS RISE FAST
The Australian labour market update for October shows employment rising by +16,000 when a +25,000 rise was expected. Their participation rate slipped slightly, allowing their jobless rate to hold at 4.1%. But this also means their employed workforce is +387,000 higher than a year ago, a healthy +2.7% rise. But almost 40% of that rise was for part-time work; a year ago part-time jobs made up only 31%, so the shift away from full-time positions is rising.
TAX CUTS DON'T BOOST SPENDING
And staying in Australia, their largest bank has concluded that the "stage 3 tax cuts" are not flowing through to more consumer spending, rather being used to build resilience (or build back some capacity) by paying debt down faster, mainly mortgages.
SHORT SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably a little softer at the short end today. But the long end is still rising. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is back down -2 bps at 4.45%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps from this time yesterday to 4.75%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at just on 2.10%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +5 bps at 4.86% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.74% and up +1 bp from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.48% and up +5 bps from yesterday. Their 2yr is down to 4.31%, so that curve is now more positive, now by +17 bps.
EQUITIES MIXED & MINOR
The NZX50 is actually up +0.2% in Thursday trade with a late firming. The ASX200 is up +0.3% in afternoon trade today. Tokyo has opened with a minor -0.1% retreat. Hong Kong is down -0.8% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore is down also down -0.2%. Wall Street ended flat in Wednesday trade on the S&P500.
OIL HOLDS
The oil price is little-changed from this time yesterday, still just under US$68.50/bbl in the US, and unchanged at US$72/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE LITTLE-CHANGED
The carbon price is little-changed today, in modest volumes again, now at $63.60/NZU. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FALLS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down another -US$43 from this time yesterday, now at US$2565/oz.
NZD FALLS
The Kiwi dollar is down -60 bps from this time yesterday, now at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we down -20 bps at 90.6 AUc. And against the euro we are also down -20 bps to 55.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now down another -30 bps at 68.3.
BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price has risen +2.1% from this time yesterday, now at US$90,244. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been very high at just under +/- 4.2%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
59 Comments
Good to see Open Star getting its 15 seconds on major news outlets around the world. It has made some remarkable strides in nuclear fusion technology. Link
The startup is going to present to investors next week as part of its largest capital raise effort, which means its days as being an NZ-based startup are likely numbered ('Merica here I come).
New Zealand is the place where good ideas develop on a shoestring budget, before bringing in overseas investors/moving the whole operation overseas so we don't get most of the ultimate benefits.
We have a shallow capital pool that's been drained to feed real estate - even on this site where people mostly have a bit of money floating around to invest, the majority are too scared to buy shares in a real business.
I think a common property investor mindset may be that it doesn't matter if living standards overall slowly subside, so long as they remain safely at the top of the heap. It's nothing to do with making society better, purely about getting ahead of your fellow citizens in the scramble for resources.
I think a common property investor mindset may be that it doesn't matter if living standards overall slowly subside, so long as they remain safely at the top of the heap. It's nothing to do with making society better, purely about getting ahead of your fellow citizens in the scramble for resources
If we look at the world's Uber wealthy, we can see that this is actually innate to capitalism.
Or actually any large hierarchical civilisation.
Those are really all degrees of the same thing.
Having financial gain at all muddies the water a lot.
From sheer numbers, Elon Musk has arguably benefitted people at a scale greater than Mother Teresa. Is Elon Musk a more virtuous or moral person than Mother Teresa? I'd still call him a person of dubious morals and intentions any day of the week.
Not to say Mother Teresa was a perfect person necessarily.
Hopefully the introduction of new insurance polcy criteria will be meaningful. In our family an insurer has the policy requirement to disclose potential risk. The property is roadside, on a hill in a high wind zone. A neighbour has stacked a large pile of firewood amidst dry scrub, flaxes and under a large eucalyptus tree, all about 10 metres away. So would this constitute a risk requiring disclosure to the insurer? Not according to the Fire Department because the chance of ignition is considered as low. The point is that it is simply not possible to identify potential risk and again hopefully the new regs will provide some definition in that regard.
Then buy Pams who already pay tax?
"Winter is coming..."
The Republican Party has won the House of Representatives after reaching the 218-seat threshold to secure the majority.
It means the party has recorded a clean sweep in the US elections, winning the presidency, the Senate, and now the House of Representatives.
There is also a conservative majority on the Supreme Court.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-14/republicans-win-majority-house-o…
which has been obvious for days but the media refused to acknowledge it -- even in seats with 99% of the votes counted! What it says is that Americans voted FOR Trump and his party at every single level they could and he WON at all those levels -- America is getting exactly what it asked for ! thats called Democracy!
Please stop calling the dem's "the left" . They haven't had any communitarian principles for years. An arrogant lack of empathy and belief in in plutocracy has driven the US into this perversion.
Don't call it democracy because it's not.
What happens to democracy within a capitalist economy from hereon in is the big question.
Where did the 10 million voters that voted for Dems last time go? They did not transfer to Trump they just decided to note vote?
Or perhaps last time they where mail in cheating votes....
Yvil you should stick to predicting things you know about, like storm systems, as you are clearly not aware what has actually happened in the USA.
Trump has kicked serious ASS at all levels house senate popular vote EVERYTHING swing states included, this is as big a loss for the Dems as for the Jacinda Labour Party...
IMHOP the reason is clear, Sleepy Joe was not running the country and that fact pissed off everyone, the cheating mail papers could not happen again
The Americans voted for Trump and now it is quite clear from his cabinet nominations that America under his presidency is to become markedly more hard edged in both domestic and foreign policy, quite starkly so in fact. Trump has been granted an uncontestable mandate and he is going to exercise precisely that. Whether or not Americans are going to enjoy the ride is another question.
What it says is that Americans voted FOR Trump and his party at every single level they could and he WON at all those levels
A tiny fraction over half of those that voted, voted for Trump. Take into account the many that couldn't be bothered and his mandate represents about 20% of the US population. He won fair and square. This is not in dispute, the Dems will not stoop to Trump's lows and claim fraud.
But to say that Trump represents the will of the American people is a bit of an overstatement. He won on a platform of hatred, vitriol and anger that explicitly tried to divide the American people, and he succeeded. So whereas before an election this close would indicate that the US was largely sat in the centre, in this case it represents a huge and growing collapse of societal cohesion. Not good.
Even if the Dems had won it would still be the same, the US is not in a good place politically. The good thing about Trump winning a clean slate is he has nowhere to hide when he fails to deliver on his promises. He'll of course blame everyone and fail to take responsibility but that's nothing new.
Some here (Winston, Seymour, Simeon) are trying the same tactics and if we let their rhetoric take hold we'll follow suit.
I agree. Possible scenarios:
His complete and absolute power means he is able to make progress on some issues that typically get held up by partisan politics. Some of those things might help the average US citizen which is a good outcome.
Despite having an absolute majority he doesn't solve the issues and people finally realise he's a chump and those that enabled him are punished at the elections. Again, good outcome.
Obviously the third and more worrying scenario is that he uses his absolute power to trash the institutions of democracy to such an extent they are unrecoverable.
The undertaking to expel 000’s of illegal immigrants is likely to be the first flashpoint. Firstly there is varied and contradictory law state by state. Secondly locating, and likely separating, identities family by family will cause uproar & community upheavals, thirdly methods of arrest, transportation and deportation will be more than problematic, fourthly countries of origin may not necessarily cooperate. I would wager this will prove to be a hell of a lot easier to talk about than accomplish and likely to ignite more social trouble and unrest than any achievement.
So ... Just to be clear ... The "Treaty Principles Bill" ...
Isn't wasting tax payer's money?
I thought this 3 headed government was going to stop this waste? Seems to be b.s. right?
But no. What they're doing - while you are all distracted - much like Key's flag 'debate' - is far more noteworthy.
Do you know what they're doing behind this smokescreen?
I expect not.
Is Stuff not MSM? Confused what you think MSM is?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350443765/government-waikato-tainui-par…
Is the NZHerald not mainstream media either?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/kahu/housing-for-hopuhopu-tainui-team-up-wit…
Is RNZ also not MSM?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/te-manu-korihi/530111/government-and-iwi-par…
Here's a thought TronMVP, maybe start reading the MSM before you "decide" what they report and don't report. Or just go back your Facebook pages if you like with the algorhythms that are designed to make you question MSM and become increasingly reliant on Facebook. Up to you.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.