This country's population growth from migration continues to decline sharply, with fewer people arriving in the country long term and more departing long term.
According to Statistics NZ 188,120 people arrived in this country long term in the year to August and 134,273 departed these shores long term, giving a net gain of 53,846 for the year to August.
That was down from a net gain 127,696 for the year to August 2023.
The latest figures have brought the net gain down to a level that is roughly comparable with pre-Covid levels, when there was a net gain of 56,555 in the year to August 2019.
Of the 188,120 people who arrived in the country long term in the year to August, 25,115 were NZ citizens returning after an extended stay overseas and 163,005 were non-NZ citizens.
Of the 134,273 people who departed long term, 81,196 were NZ citizens and 53,077 were non-NZ citizens.
The 134,273 departures was an all time high for the number of people leaving the country long term in any 12 month period.
That means that overall, there was a net loss of 56,082 NZ citizens in the year to August and a net gain of 109,928 citizens of other countries.
Those figures also mean that on average, migration is currently pushing this country's population up by 1036 people a week, or 4487 people a month.
The chart below shows the long term migration trends.
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Net long term migration
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111 Comments
I'd encourage my kids to go overseas for study and work.
NZ is great for my old folks.
Genuine question- why don’t you live in China? You extol its virtues a lot, over and above NZ. I was impressed by it when I visited.
So genuinely interested. Is it because you have children settled into school and life here? That would be understandable
He could be from Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao or anywhere else for that matter/second or third gen Kiwi. Why did you ask about China in particular?
Because he / she has consistently argued the superiority of China / CCP in the past, in posts.
So isn’t it a fair assumption he/she comes from China? (Btw in case you haven’t noticed HK is part of China)
edit - I guess there’s an outside chance he is NZ born and happens to adore the CCP…
[ Unacceptable racist comment deleted. Ed ]
Keep on living at the bottom of the well and feel good about it then.😂
Throwing around emotive, and derogatory, ad hominens does nothing to advance a discussion, and it does nothing to suggest you are anything other than a CCP bot.
As I have said before, there’s a lot I admire about China. Since the thread is about immigration, I am genuinely interested why you reside here, rather than China, especially as you are so critical of NZ
With respect, HM, do you think you may have crossed a line?
Targeting a single poster, using race, as you have done, is suspect.
And to use a "go back to where you came from" statement - even as disguised as your comment is - is distasteful to me as my wife is Chinese.
Far better to do as I do - target a broad spectrum with caustic (and apparently, uncivil) comments.
Like I've said, Kiwis are none to bright. ;-)
[humor, is case anyone missed it.]
He constantly criticises NZ. That’s fine - so do I.
I think I have been quite clear, both above and generally, that I like and admire China and its people. So I struggle to see how I am being racist.
Given he often criticises NZ and constantly praises China and the CCP, I was genuinely interested in the reason he is living here. People’s behaviour and motivations interest me.
If he was English and talking the same way, I would be asking the same question. It’s nothing to do with race.
You’re a weird fish
Ed, with the greatest of respect, when posters start publishing their guesses as to, who and where people are from, and using such stereotypes to "derive facts" about them, then this goes beyond the pale. Please be even handed.
Just to be clear, IMO HM's comment breached a line. But her comment remains? Why? [rhetorical question]
Why is it ‘a guess’? For several years he has espoused pro China, and pro CCP, rhetoric. While I cannot definitively ‘prove’ he is from China, the weight of evidence over several years suggests that is likely.
What have I actually said is racist?
yet, he used a racist slur (towards Jewish people)
You won’t find a less racist person than me. Just in case you haven’t noticed, I have been one of the most active critics of frequent racist comments on this website toward Maori people.
Nothing racist, he was inquisitive and polite in his enquiry. It’d free speech not racism. Settle down.
Thank you.
And actually noting my admiration for China.
HM: "Because he / she has consistently argued the superiority of China / CCP in the past, in posts."
HM, your opinion is noted. But let's be clear - it is your opinion. Further, the way in which you have phased it is, well, unpleasant.
Unpleasant? That’s a matter of opinion. And that’s quite a different thing to the racism you are slurring me with
Take a cold shower
Sounds like he's here for his parents - free money @ 65.
"163,005 were non-NZ citizens" - madness.
When will the Conservatives actually become conservative, instead of nepotistic neoliberal wannabe's living up large on the taxpayers teat.
The fact that everyone is like "this is fine, all the 20 to 30yr old kiwis we have educated are leaving overseas. We can just replace them with partially educated low wage earners from third world nations"
Everything is awesome! Everything is great if you own multiple homes! YAY!
Exactly. It’s a wicked indictment on this country.
Cue Painter1 and JimboJones with their NZ apologism
Its obviously a big problem. But how would you keep them?
Not long ago everyone was saying they were leaving due to the Labour party, what is the reason now?
It’s nothing specific to Labour, or National
They have both failed to deliver on what I consider to be one of the key reasons for the exodus - the hideous cost of living, and in particular housing, relative to incomes
And there’s heaps they could have done. But both parties think the answer lies in increasing supply of housing by developers
I'm not convinced housing is the biggest factor. There is also salary, weather, boredom, OE, bigger/better cities, more opportunities, mining, etc. In fact our expensive houses may actually be keeping more people in NZ - without them we would collectively be much poorer and even more likely to move.
You were quite keen on the cancellation of Light Rail. I have always said that for NZ to retain younger people we need a proper big city, otherwise its just too boring here for many. National's roads won't keep anyone here.
you seem to be implying our expensive houses make us rich? Surely expensive housing is what makes us poor, we have no money left for living
I have a house to live in, sure on paper it's worth lots. But would i be poorer if i lived in the same house and it only cost half the amount? I'd have half a million extra to spend on other things. Then you look overseas and see that you can indeed buy the same house for half.
The only one that expensive housing is good for is the Christopher 7-houses Luxon types.
I'm not convinced housing is the biggest factor
Go talk to people under 35/40 then. It's them who are leaving, not the older aged owner-occupiers and landlords
It's housing. And as more young people leave it's the demographics that remain that put them off. Old, stale, entitled, regressive curmudgeons. It becomes a doom loop.
Cheaper housing, more young people can make their lives here, more young people= more vibrancy = attracts more young people.
The feedback loop works both ways. Since the coalition got in the negative feedback loop has accelerated.
The nightlife around the country was much better 20 years ago when people had some money to spend after living costs. The housing market is like a black hole against the rest of the economy, sucking any life and fun out of it.
And if you dare to buy avocado and toast in a cafe you're told that that money should be going towards a house instead. One 20 gram of concrete worth at a time.
No wonder people are trying their chances elsewhere.
Anecdotal reasons from various friends of mine (aged late 20's through to mid 30's) who have moved, or will be moving in the next year to Australia:
- Had to come back to NZ from OE due to lockdowns, heading back off
- Will still take too long to save for a house so will save more over there
- Career opportunity due to lack of jobs currently and large competition
- High mortgage costs (renting the house out and will be paying the mortgage down from Oz)
- Bigger cities with more on and better public transport to enjoy them
- Partner has more opportunity currently in their field over there (double salary or more)
- Unwilling to wait out the next few years of further downturn when they could bypass this by succeeding financially over there and come back when the economy is on the way back up
- Friends have all left where they live and so they are heading over
- More friends live in Oz now than NZ
I have no children of my own but my nieces and nephews who have left (8 in total) have all stated to me that the reason they left is housing costs.
Its nothing to do with housing. If it was, (a) they would just all move to Christchurch where housing is cheaper, and (b) they wouldnt all be moving to Australia where housing is even more expensive. Sydney is the second most expensive city in the world for housing now, with both Melbourne (and presumably now Brisbane) and Adelaide also in the top 10.
https://www.realestate.com.au/news/three-aussie-cities-ranked-among-10-…
Both my children live in Australia, but neither moved there because of housing costs.
One married an Aussie, and the other was offered a job there which appealed to her at the time.
Yawn
a) finite job opportunities in a small city like ChCh
b) there’s the cost of housing on the one hand, but incomes and general cost of living on the other. Melbourne’s housing costs may be similar to Auckland, but wages are significantly higher, and for some jobs much higher, and general cost of living significantly lower
Aussie cities are way more expensive than NZ, the notion that housing costs are 'similar' is wrong....100%...and then there's then exchange rate. 10% more.
A few months ago in Melbourne my niece & her partner bought a perfectly ordinary late model 3brm/2 bath single level home on its own land for $850k. A month ago my daughter bought a perfectly ordinary 1970s model 3brm/1 bath single level home on its own land in Auckland for $850k.
The exchange rate is irrelevant when you earn local currency
1970's.....that says it all...a do-up. ...I've done a few...very expensive.
You don't buy a house straight away with a kiwi currency that's 10% below AUD...you have to earn it over there first
I responded to your claim that "Aussie cities are way more expensive than NZ, the notion that housing costs are 'similar' is wrong....100%" with some anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Nothing about Kiwis moving to Oz.
Incidentally, I myself was surprised by the conservative Melbourne price (I've seen photos of the property & not a bad area).
Boredom KW...and one of the most racist places in NZ ..(first hand experience). But hey some like it that way..enjoy KW your little nirvarna and new stadium.
If you think kiwis leave mainly for non-housing and non-cost of living reasons, why the massive exodus in the last 12 months, when those overseas pull factors always exist?
I very much doubt they're moving because of housing costs.
Housing is more expensive in all 3 Aussie East Coast cities. One of my children lives East of Melbourne in a dormitory town because of the extortionate costs of living closer. Unless you want to live in a tiny, boxy apartment.
Honestly.
1) Firstly a CGT or land tax. Why? You can use the income this generates to offer lower income tax rates.
2) Tax charities just like everyone else. Why? You can use the income this generates to offer lower income tax rates.
3) Digitial services tax, like Canada. Why? You can use the income this generates to offer lower income tax rates.
4) Raise retirement age to 68? Why? You can use the income this saves to offer lower income tax rates.
Because ill-thought-out taxes have a habit of backfiring, big time.
We've already had death taxes and extortionate income taxes, and all they did was ensure wealthy kiwis moved to Australia.
Good to be "back on track", ay?
I guess if you're wealthy and sorted (and have just changed bright-line tax law so you don't pay it) you'll be fine, ay.
And of course Chris, it wouldn’t do to be wealthy. Would it? I’d suggest coveting and/or being bitter about what others have will lead to a miserable life. You often make interesting comments in response to posts, and give what you think are solutions. Perhaps sticking to that would be better?
Because they all come back in their late 30s with young families or about to start them like I and 90% of my friends did. Nothing new here.
I doubt they will come back to NZ. For starters, in Australia, children born there are now automatically Australian citizens. And NZers can apply for Australian citizenship after 4 years of being there. There is zero need to come back to NZ to get benefits and subsidies for having children when the Australian Govt will now pay for everything. Things have changed as of July 2023.
Your friends must be the exception because I can't think of anyone I know who has moved to Aus and then come back. Higher incomes and cheaper living give them no reason to come back here.
āmine.
What could go wrong!?
It would be interesting to see this broken down by age and education. Sure 1.6% emigration is huge but how many young professionals and grads are leaving? Probably a huge chunk of them. If you don't have roots here and don't even have a chance of putting down roots like home ownership and family for many years when why stay for the low salaries?
If you look at the FB group "Kiwis Moving to Aussie" which has 42,200 members, 39% of members are 25-34, 30% are 35-44, 12% are 45-54.
Stats NZ's monthly employment indicators paint a dire picture as well. Number of filled jobs among 15–29-year-olds fell materially every month from May to Aug '24.
I hope Nicola Willis has a plan B for NZ in the likely scenario that interest rate cuts don't turn out to be the silver bullet to solving NZ's productivity woes. She probably knows a lot about economic productivity from her English Lit degree and through her prior experience working as an MP, lobbyist and ministerial secretary.
Of the 134k that left NZ, 65k were aged between 18 and 35. About half of them...
That number might be a mix of pre-adolescent children moving with their parents and also some late-career folks (36-45) affected by layoffs. My firm had a few struggling business lines due to change in gov policy (civil/infrastructure) and laid off workers across the board (seniors, mid-levels, recent grads), unfortunately. Ditto reports coming out of the broader sector.
Replacing all the productive citizens fleeing with all the ones that have to come back to NZ to go on benefits. #winning
Coming back to retire you reckon?
The sad thing is our politicians don’t give a flying f#%k
Neither party cares for our most important citizens (ie. people working in health, education, police etc), although Labour isn’t *quite* as bad as National
Net migration forecast for next year is zero
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy/brace-for-net-zero-immigrat….
"net zero" doesnt help when 200,000 Kiwis leave and 200,000 third world immigrants arrive. Sure you have "zero net migration" but the country is still far worse off.
So house prices to the Moon amiright?.....
Queenstown might be as good a template as any for what we are doing to our country.
Lots of newly arrived, lowly paid temporary stayers, living 10 to a rented house, delivering us food from the restaurants, serving us in the shops and Uber driving us to golf. Yet as we look around, we wonder where the teachers have gone from Queenstown Primary; and the police have gone from the Camp Street station and the doctors from the Lakes District Hospital. At some stage, when the garbos can no longer afford to live in Queenstown and collect the rubbish and drive it to Victoria Flats Landfill, we'll realise that unless we keep the bedrock of society here, we too will follow those who are going today to wherever it is they have gone to avoid the squalor that overtakes us.
Great post
We are heading down a very precarious slope
There is a great novel by JG Ballard called High Rise - it presents an idea about what can happen when you build a community or society that is too top heavy.
In short, it is very much like life in San Fran Bay Area just minus the prospect of landing a high-paying jobs in big tech or venture capital.
There is no shortage of workers in NZ to do those jobs as the local lobbies in QT have been suggesting, just a shortage of those who will accept very low pay and very high living costs. That's what you get when a low value export industry becomes the mainstay of a high-cost economy.
Guy from work came over from China with his family and as soon as he got NZ Citizenship went to live in Australia. So he is one of the NZ citizens that have left the country.
I do wish some effort was put into quantifying this side of it. NZ has long been seen as a waiting room for entry to Australia.
Overseas-born New Zealand citizens migrating to Australia
Since the early 2000s, people who were born outside New Zealand have made up a growing proportion of New Zealand citizens migrating to Australia.
Of New Zealand citizens who migrated to Australia in 2023, 36 percent were born outside New Zealand. This compares with an average of 33 percent in 2016–2019 (before COVID-19) and 22 percent in 2004–2011.
https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/net-migration-loss-to-australia-in-2023/
Yes, then they'll be back for their Kiwi Super as it's means tested in Aus.!!
Hahahaha, that's genuinely hilarious.
Yeah that's not going to happen. The restrictions have tightened considerably in the past year on NZ super eligibility, meaning nigh on impossible if you spend the majority of your working life abroad.
Time spent in Australia counts towards the NZ residency requirement.
https://www.workandincome.govt.nz/on-a-benefit/overseas-travel/social-s…
no longer....the interpretation appears to have changed around july...family member was notified he would have to wait until 67.
Possibly because NZ expects Australia to cough up for most of the share of the pension payment - and the Australian pension age for payments is 67. But once you reach that age then you get the pension in NZ even though you havent lived here for the required 5 years post 50 years of age (or 20 years total post 18 years of age).
I can guarantee you if there was an information sharing agreement between DIA and customs you'd be able to tell instantly. See when a passport is issued, correlate with when citizenship granted, and then record of travel out of the country with no return in [insert date here]. I don't believe this is in place as the only way a PPT can be flagged is by court order such as in instances where say one parent fears the other parent will take the child overseas (can't stop this without court order 1st), certain crimes etc.
Wow the Kiwis flee. Meanwhile the Indians/Chinese keep arriving.
Yes, for now, but they too will eventually flee NZ.
No one wants to be in NZ, unless you want to remain poor.
most alarmingly, this is an accelerating trend
No it isn't. Refer my link above.
Using the graphs above - we see a big exodus after the GFC lasting ~2 years.
Wonder if this (avoidable) recession will see the same thing. Is it just about to hit us now?
(Those that believe immigration has direct relationship with house prices must be getting a tad worried.)
Luxon just put rental number three on the market. Despite being mortgage free he still see's this as a mature form of investment;
https://www.waikatotimes.co.nz/politics/350448224/christopher-luxon-put…
Another reason those here who boast of this form of "investment" should be a tad worried....
I'm building and I'm sleeping very soundly.
I've lived in this area for decades and I've never seen so much construction, traffic jams and roading in progress. It's colossal. A new industrial subdivision nearby has sold out, and it's nowhere near complete.
"sleeping"
I think you need to get out more poopy. Your age is showing.
Relentless growth doesn't always = good.
Spend a few days in Mumbai.
Wingman, when you resort to name calling your insecurity goes on display. You've then become the entertainment. Perhaps it IS time you woke up instead of copy and pasting other Spruikers "wisdom" day in and out. It indicates you lack vision and pine the reinforcement of others like Tony Alexander.
I don't need to copy and paste anyone.
All I have to do is drive around the area I'm building my new house in, to prove that the bollocks posted by you and a few left-wing others here is a load of rubbish.
Such posts are best kept in the confines of Property Seminars where you can massage one and others egos.
Edit, oh - okay, I see you're about to once again rant on about "left wing socialist, communist, Stalin, North Korea and whatever else sensationalistic now.
You are predictable and you're funny :)
I'm "funny"?
Nowhere near as funny as someone who spends his life waffling on about socialism on a chatroom.
Why do you let Socialism consume you when we all live in a Democracy? Anyway, there are good things to be found in all systems. Perhaps try to have an open mind and consider what is sustainable for the good of the country as a whole?
You call anyone that doesn't agree with your delusional views as left winged.
Majority of people would call me far right lol
Putting conflict of interest aside. Does the Lux see something in the wind - ie continued house falls. Getting out while he can.
Getting out before CGT
Maybe he's got a bigger project in mind.
I certainly wouldn't take it for granted that property prices are going to decline further because he's selling a couple of houses.
If only we had a land border. We could cut a few holes in the fence and look the other way. Problem solved.
We don't need a land border. Australia has plenty of boat people that they dont want and who they lock up in detention camps until some NZ Labour PM agrees to take them all in. Even the illegals dont want to land here.
I find this depressing, but sadly, not surprising. I have just looked through all the posts and only one has the tick showing that they contribute towards keeping this site running. I simply don't believe that anyone here can't afford it, so my suggestion to all those free-riders, pay up or go away.
I contribute but don't log in with the press patron option so no tick.
No ads so it is worth logging in on Press Patron, just a bit onerous at times.
Same here
Non paying users earn revenue for interest.co via ad impressions and clicks. Though this may be significantly less than subs, telling them all to go away would surely reduce overall revenue.
Encourage others to sub, sure. This site provides a lot of value, the comments section with non-paying users included.
"I pay so others should too!" is too much. It's like jumping up and down on the bus "I pay the most tax so everybody else get off!".
I believe there is also an option to support interest as a one-off for those non-committal types.
cool, get someone to put the site behind a paywall then and I'll go away forever.
Well said linklater01.
Would you recommend we freeloaders cut back on our avo toast so we can contribute, cause we're far past that point.
ABSURD.
A proper population strategy wouldn’t allow such high net inbound immigration.
It simply drives up house prices (or slows the decent) from some of the highest in the world based on price to income ratios.
Interest rates wouldn't have gone as high as demand would have been lower.
The massive outbound movement reflects how hard the RBNZ and govt have crashed the economy. It’s a massive vote of no confidence in the govt.
You're ignoring both the facts that the the mass immigration & Kiwi exodus commenced under the previous government & net migration was higher last year. And next year's net migration forecast is zero (refer link above).
It’s been going on a lot longer than that.
It's definitely not just the previous govt. The final deciding factor for me and my partner was national bringing back interest tax deductibility for landlords. It was the nail in the coffin, but the hole was already dug and coffin picked out, years ago.
It's a gross loss of confidence of REPETIVTIVE govts. People don't up and leave over 3 years of a govt they aren't fond of...
Exactly
I'm a Kiwi citizen living in Singapore. It is going well, but we plan to move back home in the mid term so our kids can enjoy and connect to their family and kiwi culture / lifestyle more, especially in their high-school years.
Many pros and cons to living abroad vs. home outside of purely the economic.
True
we were significantly better off, financially, living in Aus
But my mother got sick and helping her became a greater priority
save for that, there’s very little likelihood we would have come back
Wouldnt it have been easier to bring your mother to Australia? There are no restrictions on Kiwi's moving to Australia - neither age or health. And she probably would get better care over there.
Maybe a first world problem driving migration for youth.
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/mortgage-repayments-gen-z-b2627147.html
I can tell you what I have found over the last month or so, and that is that shop assistants, customer service people, and even Auckland City Council employees and hospital staff seem to be a lot more helpful to the public. There can be only one reason for this and that is that unemployment and retrenchment have started to rear their ugly heads. I wonder whether the OCR decreases will counter this trend?
Yes, many of my younger generation relatives have gone overseas, mainly to Australia where they certainly earn more money: their jobs vary from working in the health system (nurses,doctors) to driving trucks.
But others have gone further afield and married locals: eg Japan, Switzerland, England, USA.
And the wonderful thing is that unlike most normal, grown up countries, NZ allows new arrivals to vote after just 1 year of living in NZ.
So people with no historical knowledge of politics just go with what Sunny Kaushal promises them in closed door sessions, which includes maintaining the ability to exploit their fellow countrymen to work in their liquor stores for well under minimum wage.
So why does it surprise anyone that the influx of migrants who can change the country politically, for the worse, forces out those who want politicians who can focus on the long term, and realise that as a sovereign body, its never going to be short of income.
nz needs to stop allowing residents to vote for central govt and limit it to citizens only.
I think you’ll find that the majority of voters are native New Zealanders, so we can only blame ourselves. If everyone was raised to know they have a civil duty to vote and engage in the direction of their country, and actually educated themselves every election as to the pros and cons of different policies of each and every party instead of watching 1 tv debate between 2 of them and going off what their parents and mates say, we would actually get a real representation of where the people want the country to head.
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